用GPS研究南天山（伽师）地区现今地壳变形

伽师地区现今地壳运动方式、变动幅度和形变应变特征对研究该地区孕震环境具有重要作用．利用1994和1998年两次GPS大地测量,我们监测到伽师地区相对于北天山哈萨克地块的地壳缩短速率大约为19mm/a,与20世纪以来地震学（地震矩张量）资料估计的速率（约13mm/a）相比,GPS测定的速率高约50％．大地测量与地震学对南天山（伽师）地区地壳运动速率的估值差异,既可能说明该地区20世纪以来存在大量无震、震间应变,也可能表示至今与地震活动有关的断层变动尚不足以消减整个天山地区的现今变形．无论何种可能,从应力应变积累的角度看,都意味着天山西段及帕米尔东北侧一带发生强震的可能性将长期存在．      

2020年3月23日新疆拜城5.0级和7月13日霍城5.0级地震总结

2020年3月23日和7月13日,新疆天山中部地区分别发生拜城5.0级和霍城5.0级地震,其中拜城5.0级地震发生在南天山地震带中段,霍城5.0级地震发生在北天山地震带西段。系统总结2次地震前出现的地震活动和地球物理观测异常,结果表明：①拜城5.0级地震：震前主要存在5级地震成组和尼勒克钻孔应变中短期异常;②霍城5.0级地震：震前中短期异常比较丰富,存在3级以上地震带状分布、地震发生率指数、D值、调制比、b值异常,而地球物观测则以形变异常为主,主要出现在震中附近区域。综合分析认为：①拜城5.0级地震前地震活动异常较少,地球物理观测以趋势异常为主,短期指示意义不明确;②霍城5.0级地震前具有中短期预测意义的地震活动和地球物理异常较为丰富,为后续中强地震的发生提供了判定依据。     

南北地震带和青藏块体东部近期大地形变与地震特征

通过研究南北地震带及青藏块体东部地区２０多年来大地形变场演化特征及其与地震活动的呼应关系，发现大地形变既具有时空分布的不均匀性，各分区形变场又具有同时段的宏观相似性；继承性运动是现代地壳运动的总趋势，而运动方式为波浪式，涌动式推进。地壳运动过程中存在着区域为能积累阶段和释放调整阶段，这可能是地震活动的相对平静与活跃的动力机制。     

The Characteristics of Recent Geodetic Deformation and Seismicity in North-South Seismic Zone and East of the Qinghai-Xizang Block

In this paper,the corresponding relation of the evolutionary characteristics of geodetic deformation fields with seismic activity for more than 20 years in the North-South seismic zone and East of Qinghai-Xizang Mess has been investigated.Not only is geodetic deformation in non-homogeneity for the space-time distribution but also deformation fields are in macroscopic similarity for the identical time interval.The inherited tectonic movement is a total tendency of recent crustal movement,and the motion mode is in undulations.There are stages of accumulation and release-adjusting of strain energy in crustal movement processes,which may be the dynamic mechanism of relatively quiet and active seismicity.The analysis of the crustal movement tendency since 1991 is of some significance for judging the stress state and the large seismic situation in the area.     

最小二乘配置下的天山地区应变场特征分布

利用已有的GPS观测数据,借助球面最小二乘配置方法对天山地区的GPS速度场进行研究,得到了研究区域应变场的空间分布特征．其最大主压应变表明,大地震多发生在主压应变快速交替变化的地带,主压应变最大值主要分布于西南天山与帕米尔弧及塔里木西北交汇的地区,强地震(M7.0—8.0)基本发生在该区域．面膨胀值表明天山地区应变呈挤压收缩的特征．      

天山地震带主要活动断层现今的滑动速率及其地震矩亏损

文中收集了1999—2015年天山地震带及其周边地区的GNSS数据,计算得到了速度场结果,并利用弹性块体模型计算了研究区域内各块体的闭锁深度和主要断层的滑动速率。研究结果表明:南天山断裂带西段的迈丹断裂的缩短速率处于高值状态,达(-6.3±1.9) mm/a,高于南天山东段;北天山断裂带西段的缩短速率同样高于东段。利用主要断裂带的滑动速率计算出各地震带的地震矩积累变化及1900年以来的地震矩释放变化量,以分析地震矩亏损分布,结果显示北天山山前断裂、迈丹断裂、额尔齐斯断裂带北段和喀什河断裂西段存在较大的地震矩亏损,具有孕育7级以上地震的潜能,而北轮台断裂、柯坪断裂带中段则呈现地震矩盈余状态,在未来的一段时间内不具备发生强震的可能。     

QUATERNARY FOLDING OF THE XIHU ANTICLINE BELT ALONG FORELAND BASIN OF NORTH TIANSHAN

Tianshan is one of the longest and most active intracontinental orogenic belts in the world. Due to the collision between Indian and Eurasian plates since Cenozoic, the Tianshan has been suffering from intense compression, shortening and uplifting. With the continuous extension of deformation to the foreland direction, a series of active reverse fault fold belts have been formed. The Xihu anticline is the fourth row of active fold reverse fault zone on the leading edge of the north Tianshan foreland basin. For the north Tianshan Mountains, predecessors have carried out a lot of research on the activity of the second and third rows of the active fold-reverse faults, and achieved fruitful results. But there is no systematic study on the Quaternary activities of the Xihu anticline zone. How is the structural belt distributed in space?What are the geometric and kinematic characteristics?What are the fold types and growth mechanism?How does the deformation amount and characteristics of anticline change?In view of these problems, we chose Xihu anticline as the research object. Through the analysis of surface geology, topography and geomorphology and the interpretation of seismic reflection profile across the anticline, we studied the geometry, kinematic characteristics, fold type and growth mechanism of the structural belt, and calculated the shortening, uplift and interlayer strain of the anticline by area depth strain analysis.
In this paper, by interpreting the five seismic reflection profiles across the anticline belt, and combining the characteristics of surface geology and geomorphology, we studied the types, growth mechanism, geometry and kinematics characteristics, and deformation amount of the fold. The deformation length of Xihu anticline is more than 47km from west to east, in which the hidden length is more than 14km. The maximum deformation width of the exposed area is 8.5km. The Xihu anticline is characterized by small surface deformation, simple structural style and symmetrical occurrence. The interpretation of seismic reflection profile shows that the deep structural style of the anticline is relatively complex. In addition to the continuous development of a series of secondary faults in the interior of Xihu anticline, an anticline with small deformation amplitude(Xihubei anticline)is continuously developed in the north of Xihu anticline. The terrain high point of Xihu anticline is located about 12km west of Kuitun River. The deformation amplitude decreases rapidly to the east and decreases slowly to the west, which is consistent with the interpretation results of seismic reflection profile and the calculation results of shortening. The Xihu anticline is a detachment fold with the growth type of limb rotation. The deformation of Xihu anticline is calculated by area depth strain analysis method. The shortening of five seismic reflection sections A, B, C, D and E is(650±70) m, (1 070±70) m, (780±50) m, (200±40) m and(130±30) m, respectively. The shortening amount is the largest near the seismic reflection profile B of the anticline, and decreases gradually along the strike to the east and west ends of the anticline, with a more rapidly decrease to the east, which indicates that the topographic high point is also a structural high point. The excess area caused by the inflow of external material or outflow of internal matter is between -0.34km² to 0.56km². The average shortening of the Xihubei anticline is between(60±10) m and(130±40) m, and the excess area caused by the inflow of external material is between 0.50km² and 0.74km². The initial locations of the growth strata at the east part is about 1.9~2.0km underground, and the initial location of the growth strata at the west part is about 3.7km underground. We can see the strata overlying the Xihu anticline at 3.3km under ground, the strata above are basically not deformed, indicating that this section of the anticline is no longer active.     

Comparison of geodetic and seismic strain rates in Greece by using a uniform processing approach to campaign GPS measurements over the interval 1994–2000

In this study we rigorously combine 18 old campaign GPS data sets from Greece covering the period 1994–2000. Although the majority of these old datasets have been analyzed and reported previously, it has not been possible to combine them into a single velocity field and apply strain analysis. Here a uniform, final coordinate solution is given by reprocessing 43 global, long-running International GNSS Service (IGS) sites together with 280 local sites. The 221 daily SINEX files are then combined in a least squares approach and the geodetic horizontal velocity field in ITRF2000 and Europe-fixed reference frame is derived. Two methods are used to compute the geodetic strain rates: (i) discrete estimates within contiguous polygons, and (ii) a continuous curvature surface fitted to the velocity field. The seismic hazard potential can be determined by comparing the geodetic and seismic strain rates. The published 300 year earthquake catalogue best describes the major active tectonic features at the scale of geodetic strain determination. The geodetic strain appears larger than the seismic strain for the majority of the region, suggesting that accumulated strain has not yet been released by earthquakes. The geodetic field is consistent with the detailed constraints implied by the observed orientations of faulting as these are given in the 300-year catalogue. We have shown that with the GPS dataset used in this work and following this processing scheme reasonable results can be obtained comparable with more recent studies, CGPS data and by recent earthquake activity.     

曲线坐标系下的块体运动与应变模型研究

本文建立了顾及地球扁率和局部切标架随点变化特性的椭球坐标系下的刚体运动模型和块体运动与应变模型,以及球坐标系下顾及局部切标架随点变化特性的严密的块体运动与应变模型,分析了球坐标系下块体运动与应变模型及椭球坐标系下的块体运动与应变模型间的差异;通过计算具体讨论了地球扁率和曲线坐标系的局部切标架随点变化特性对欧拉矢量与应变张量的影响.结果表明：地球扁率对刚体欧拉矢量和应变参数的影响甚小,具体计算时可以不予考虑,但曲线坐标系的局部切标架随点变化特性对两者的影响较大,在建模过程中需要顾及,常用的Savage模型需要修正.     

Kinematics of the eastern part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone

The North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), which marks the boundary between Anatolia and the Eurasian plate, is one of the world's most seismically active structures. Although the eastern part of NAFZ has high seismic hazard, there is a lack of geodetic information about the present tectonics of this region. Even though many scientists would like to study this area, geographical and logistical problems make performing scientific research difficult. In order to investigate contemporary neotectonic deformation on the eastern NAFZ and in its neighborhood, a relatively dense Global Positioning System (GPS) monitoring network was established in 2003. Geodetic observations were performed in three GPS campaigns in an area of 350 km × 200 km with 12-month intervals. In addition, 14 new GPS stations were measured far from the deforming area. Since this region includes the intersection of the NAFZ and the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ), deformation is complex and estimating seismic hazard is difficult. One important segment is the Yedisu segment and it has not broken since the 1784 earthquake. After the 1992 Erzincan and 2003 Pulumur earthquakes, the Coulomb stress loading on the Yedisu segment of the NAFZ has increased significantly, emphasizing the need to monitor this region. We computed the horizontal velocity field with respect to Eurasia and strain rates field as well. GPS-derived velocities relative to Eurasia are in the range of 16–24 mm/year, which are consistent with the regional tectonics. The principal strain rates were derived from the velocity field. Results show that strain is accumulating between the NAFZ and EAFZ along small secondary fault branches such as the Ovacik Fault (OF).     

Crustal Stress Map of Iran: Insight From Seismic and Geodetic Computations

We used the focal mechanisms of crustal earthquakes (depth <40 km) in the period 1909–2012 and the available GPS velocities, derived from the data collected between 1999 to 2011, to estimate the magnitude and directions of maximum principal stress and strain rates in Iran. The Pearson product moment correlation was used to find the correlation between the stress field obtained from the focal mechanism stress inversion and that obtained using the seismic and geodetic strain rates. Our assumption is that stresses in a continuum are produced by tectonic forces and the consequent deformation on the crustal scale. Therefore, the direction of the stress and strain (or strain rate) are ideally to be the same. Our results show a strong correlation between the directions of the principal components of stress and strain (rate) obtained using the different data/methods. Using weighted average analysis, we present a new stress map for Iran.     

我国西部地震群体活动特征研究

在对我国西部本世纪第五个地震活跃幕以来地震群体活动时空强演变规律回顾的基础上,研究了近１～２年中强地震的分布特点,结合大地形变的演变状况,对本区地震活动进行了研究,并认为本区处于本活跃幕末的翘尾活动阶段。     

Seismicity and strain accumulation around Karliova Triple Junction (Turkey)

GPS studies in Turkey date back to the early 1990s, but were mostly focused on the seismically active North Anatolian Fault System (NAFS), or on the more populated Western Anatolia. Relatively few studies were made of the seismically less-active East Anatolian Fault System (EAFS), although it has the potential to produce large earthquakes. In this study, we present the results of a combination of geodetic and seismological data around the Karliova Triple Junction (KTJ), which lies at the intersection of the North- and East Anatolian Fault Systems. In particular, the geodetic slip rates obtained through block modeling of GPS velocities were compared with b-values to assess seismicity in the region. Yedisu segment, one of the best-known seismic gaps in Turkey, was specifically analyzed. The relatively low b-values across Yedisu segment verify the accumulation of seismic energy in this segment, and the GPS-derived geodetic slip rates suggest that it has the potential to produce an earthquake of Mw 7.5 across an 80-km rupture zone.Additionally, analysis of earthquake data reveals that the study area has a ductile or rigid–ductile behavior with respect to its surroundings, characterized by varying b-values. Although, seismic events of moderate- to high magnitudes are confined along the major fault zones, there are also low-seismicity zones along the eastern part of the Bitlis Suture Zone and around Yedisu. Since the high seismicity areas within the region may not accumulate sufficient stress for a large earthquake to occur, it is considered that the deformation in such areas occurs in a ductile manner. On the other hand, the areas characterized by low b-values may have the capacity of stress accumulation, which could lead to brittle deformation.     

中国大陆地区强震活动特征统计

从时空展布和应变积累释放角度,对中国大陆及大陆西部和东部地区地震活动进行分析,认为青藏高原地震区是中国大陆强震活动主体区域,在目前空间格局不发生改变的情况下,巴颜喀拉地块区及边界、川滇地区是强震活动主要场所的可能性较大;其次为新疆地震区,其强震主体区域依次为南天山与西昆仑交汇区、阿尔泰地区、南北天山地区;中国大陆东部目前可能处于第2轮回后剩余释放阶段或可能已进入第3个轮回的应变积累阶段,总体应变积累水平较低,发生强地震的可能性较小,若进入活跃期,华北地震区应是M≥6.0地震活动的主体区域。     

Structural Properties and Deformation Patterns of Evolving Strike-slip Faults: Numerical Simulations Incorporating Damage Rheology

We present results on evolving geometrical and material properties of large strike-slip fault zones and associated deformation fields, using 3-D numerical simulations in a rheologically-layered model with a seismogenic upper crust governed by a continuum brittle damage framework over a viscoelastic substrate. The damage healing parameters we employ are constrained using results of test models and geophysical observations of healing along active faults. The model simulations exhibit several results that are likely to have general applicability. The fault zones form initially as complex segmented structures and evolve overall with continuing deformation toward contiguous, simpler structures. Along relatively-straight mature segments, the models produce flower structures with depth consisting of a broad damage zone in the top few kilometers of the crust and highly localized damage at depth. The flower structures form during an early evolutionary stage of the fault system (before a total offset of about 0.05 to 0.1 km has accumulated), and persist as continued deformation localizes further along narrow slip zones. The tectonic strain at seismogenic depths is concentrated along the highly damaged cores of the main fault zones, although at shallow depths a small portion of the strain is accommodated over a broader region. This broader domain corresponds to shallow damage (or compliant) zones which have been identified in several seismic and geodetic studies of active faults. The models produce releasing stepovers between fault zone segments that are locations of ongoing interseismic deformation. Material within the fault stepovers remains damaged during the entire earthquake cycle (with significantly reduced rigidity and shear-wave velocity) to depths of 10 to 15 km. These persistent damage zones should be detectable by geophysical imaging studies and could have important implications for earthquake dynamics and seismic hazard.     

跨断层的定点地壳形变研究及发展前景

新世纪内,在空间测地技术发展的同时,在现代地壳形变的监测和研究工作中,传统的大地测量方法仍具有不可替代的作用。全自动激光测量方法（ＥＤＭ）将是常规的跨断层定点的壳形变监测技术主要的发展方向。日本学者在２０世纪９０年代前后发展起来的中距离ＥＤＭ观测台获得了良好的成果。台湾花莲跨花东断层的ＥＤＭ观测台揭示了９．２１大地震有明显的中期和短临前兆,实践证明,这种方法不仅在成果质量和观测精度上可以和ＧＰＳ相     

新疆天山地区壳幔S波速度结构特征及变形分析

天山地区地质构造复杂,地震活动频繁,其壳幔变形和深部结构一直受到学者们的高度关注.然而,由于天山地区地震台站资料较少,致使壳幔变形研究结果与解释存在诸多争议.本研究利用在天山地区（40°N-46°N,78°E-92°E）新布设的11个流动宽频带地震台站和该地区39个固定台站的观测资料,采用接收函数与面波联合反演方法,获得了研究区地壳厚度及壳幔S波速度结构.反演结果显示天山地区（41.5°N-44°N,78°E-88°E）平均地壳厚度为56 km,塔里木盆地（40°N-41.5°N,79°E-90°E）、准噶尔盆地（44°N-46°N,82°E-90°E）和吐鲁番盆地（42°N-43°N,88°E-90°E）具有较厚的沉积层,地壳平均厚度为43 km、53 km和46 km,整体表现为天山厚、盆地相对较薄的特征;在研究区南天山的最高峰（42°N,80.5°E）及北天山的最高峰（43.5°N,86°E）附近,中下地壳存在较厚的低速层,我们认为在强烈挤压作用下低速、低强度的中下地壳强烈变形可能是导致该区域快速隆升的主要原因.在研究区中部,位于塔里木盆地与准噶尔盆地之间的天山地区,中下地壳及上地幔均存在低速层,且盆地莫霍面向天山倾斜明显.结合前人的研究成果推测,在南北向构造挤压应力作用下,塔里木盆地与准噶尔盆地发生了向天山造山带方向的双向壳幔层间插入俯冲.在研究区东部,塔里木盆地东北缘与天山东部接触带的地壳内没有明显的低速层,推测应处在早期挤压变形状态,该区域的壳幔边界为缓变的速度梯度带,可能与上地幔热物质侵入或渗透有关.     

2011年日本东北地区太平洋近海地震对亚洲板块及韩国大地控制网的影响分析

本研究分析了2011年3月11日发生的M_w9.0日本东北地区太平洋近海地震对亚洲地区和韩国国内GPS卫星常年跟踪站的位移影响.为此,利用了日本东北地区太平洋近海地震发生前后两周(2011年3月4日到3月18日)的GPS站点数据,包括震中附近地区(韩国,中国,中国台湾地区,日本和俄罗斯)55个GPS卫星常年跟踪站和284个IGS 全球跟踪站,并采用GAMIT/GLOBK软件进行处理和平差,估算出所有GPS站点的同震形变.结果显示,日本东北地区太平洋近海地震引起的同震形变影响在亚洲地区比较明显,包括日本和附近国家,距离震中2702 km的中国武汉(WUHN)站也观测到同震形变.为精确分析日本东北地区太平洋近海地震对韩国国家大地控制网的影响,通过GAMIT/GLOBK软件计算出韩国GPS卫星常年跟踪站之间的基线长度变形,并分析出弹性变形量.结果表明:大部分GPS站点均向震中方向膨胀,且向震中的垂直方向收缩.由日本东北地区太平洋近海地震导致的最大剪应变达到韩国国家大地控制网年均变形率的约7倍,对韩国的地壳产生14.5~57.7 mm的水平位移,并导致韩国国家大地控制网产生弹性变形.因此,在不及时更新维护韩国国家大地控制网的情况下,GPS测量成果将会发生最大20 mm的位置误差.     

Effect of Near-fault Terrain upon Dislocation Modeling

—Coseismic surface deformation provides important information needed to determine source rupture geometry and slip distribution as well as to estimate seismic moment. In this study, numerical experiments were designed to analyze and classify how free-surface topography affects surface deformation. The investigation was performed by 3-D finite element modeling. Results of this study show that crustal deformation induced by near-fault terrain is significant and can be measured with present geodetic survey techniques. The characteristics of the terrain effects show that a hill structure produces more crustal deformation than a half-space model, and that the crustal deformation of a basin structure is less than that of the half-space model. The topographic correction is in the order of five percent of the fault dislocation. On the basis of the relationship between fault offset and earthquake magnitude, it is suggested that the terrain effects on the coseismic crustal deformation of shallow earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 5.6 should be considered as one of the major errors in coseismic deformation modeling which ignored the surface topography on the order of 300 meters.     

天山北部强震活动对区域应力扰动的分析以2012年伊犁M6.6地震和2017年精河M6.6地震为例

天山地区为典型地震活跃区, 为定量分析该构造活跃区强震对周边构造变形和地震活动的影响, 本文基于地震位错理论和岩石圈分层模型计算了天山北部近期发生的2012年伊犁和2017年精河两次M6.6地震对周围地壳形变和应力的影响。 计算结果显示伊犁地震和精河M6.6地震引起震中附近地表同震位移达数厘米, 地表同震应变量级约为10^-7; 对比天山北部地区年平均构造形变特征, M6.6强震释放了震中附近近十年的构造主压应变积累; 地震引起震中附近(80 km内)同震库仑应力变化大于1 kPa, 而距震中较远区域活动断层上库仑应力变化微弱。 结合天山北部现今地壳变形特征及区域地震分布, 初步推测两次M6.6地震的发生对震后余震有显著的触发作用, 而对区域后续微震活动的影响微弱。