LONG-TERM VARIATIONS IN INSOLATION AND THEIR EFFECTS ON CLIMATE, THE LLN EXPERIMENTS

Used to test the Milankovitch theory over the last glacial-interglacial cycles, the Louvain-la-Neuve two-dimension Northern Hemisphere climate model shows that orbital and CO2 variations induce, in the climate system, feedbacks sufficient to generate the low frequency part of the climatic variations over the last 200 kyr. Initiation and termination of glacial cycles cannot indeed be explained without invoking both the fast feedbacks associated with atmospheric processes (water vapor, cloud, snow and sea ice) and the slower feedbacks associated with coupling to other parts of the climate system, in particular the land ice-sheet buildup and disintegration. This model shows that long-term changes in the Earth's orbital parameters lead to variations in the amount of solar radiation received at the top of the atmosphere, which in turn act as a pacemaker for climatic variations at the astronomical frequencies, through induced albedo-temperature and greenhouse gases-temperature feedbacks. Spectral analysis of the Northern Hemisphere global ice volume variations simulated under both insolation and CO2 forcings reproduces correctly the relative intensity of the peaks at the orbital frequencies as seen in SPECMAP data. Except for variations with time scales shorter than 5 kyr, the simulated long-term variations of total ice volume are comparable to that reconstructed from deep-sea cores. For example, the model simulates glacial maxima of similar amplitudes at 134 kyr BP and 15 kyr BP, followed by abrupt deglaciations.     

Interannual variability in glacier contribution to runoff from a high‐elevation Andean catchment: understanding the role of debris cover in glacier hydrology

We present a field‐data rich modelling analysis to reconstruct the climatic forcing, glacier response, and runoff generation from a high‐elevation catchment in central Chile over the period 2000–2015 to provide insights into the differing contributions of debris‐covered and debris‐free glaciers under current and future changing climatic conditions. Model simulations with the physically based glacio‐hydrological model TOPKAPI‐ETH reveal a period of neutral or slightly positive mass balance between 2000 and 2010, followed by a transition to increasingly large annual mass losses, associated with a recent mega drought. Mass losses commence earlier, and are more severe, for a heavily debris‐covered glacier, most likely due to its strong dependence on snow avalanche accumulation, which has declined in recent years. Catchment runoff shows a marked decreasing trend over the study period, but with high interannual variability directly linked to winter snow accumulation, and high contribution from ice melt in dry periods and drought conditions. The study demonstrates the importance of incorporating local‐scale processes such as snow avalanche accumulation and spatially variable debris thickness, in understanding the responses of different glacier types to climate change. We highlight the increased dependency of runoff from high Andean catchments on the diminishing resource of glacier ice during dry years.     

Role of glacial Arctic Ocean ice sheets in Pleistocene oxygen isotope and sea level records

A comparison of the oxygen isotope signal in deep-sea benthic foraminifera with the record of glacio-eustatic sea level for the last 160,000 years reveals that the amplitude of the benthic δ¹⁸O records predicts more continental ice volume than appears to be reflected in lowered sea level stands. These differences between the benthic δ¹⁸O ice volume estimates and radiometrically-dated records of eustatic sea level are consistent with the presence of a large floating Arctic Ocean ice mass during glacial intervals. The presence of an Arctic Ocean ice sheet during glacial intervals may account for the two climatic modes observed in oxygen isotope records which span the entire Pleistocene. The early Pleistocene (1.8 to 0.9 Myr B.P.) interval is characterized by low-amplitude, high-frequency δ¹⁸O fluctuations between glacial and interglacial periods, while the late Pleistocene (0.9 Myr B.P. to present) is characterized by large-amplitude, low-frequency δ¹⁸O changes. These two climatic modes can be explained by the initiation of earth orbital conditions favoring the co-occurrence of glacial period Arctic Ocean ice sheets and large continental ice sheets approximately 900,000 years before present.     

Distributed modelling of future changes in hydrological processes of Spencer Creek watershed

The hydrologic impact of climate change has been largely assessed using mostly conceptual hydrologic models. This study investigates the use of distributed hydrologic model for the assessment of the climate change impact for the Spencer Creek watershed in Southern Ontario (Canada). A coupled MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 hydrologic model is developed to represent the complex hydrologic conditions in the Spencer Creek watershed, and later to simulate climate change impact using Canadian global climate model (CGCM 3·1) simulations. Owing to the coarse resolution of GCM data (daily GCM outputs), statistical downscaling techniques are used to generate higher resolution data (daily precipitation and temperature series). The modelling results show that the coupled model captured the snow storage well and also provided good simulation of evapotranspiration (ET) and groundwater recharge. The simulated streamflows are consistent with the observed flows at different sites within the catchment. Using a conservative climate change scenario, the downscaled GCM scenarios predicted an approximately 14–17% increase in the annual mean precipitation and 2–3 °C increase in annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures for the 2050s (i.e., 2046–2065). When the downscaled GCM scenarios were used in the coupled model, the model predicted a 1–5% annual decrease in snow storage for 2050s, approximately 1–10% increase in annual ET, and a 0·5–6% decrease in the annual groundwater recharge. These results are consistent with the downscaled temperature results. For future streamflows, the coupled model indicated an approximately 10–25% increase in annual streamflows for all sites, which is consistent with the predicted changes in precipitation. Overall, it is shown that distributed hydrologic modelling can provide useful information not only about future changes in streamflow but also changes in other key hydrologic processes such as snow storage, ET, and groundwater recharge, which can be particularly important depending on the climatic region of concern. The study results indicate that the coupled MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 hydrologic model could be a particularly useful tool for understanding the integrated effect of climate change in complex catchment scale hydrology. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optical properties of benthic photosynthetic communities: fiber-optic studies of cyanobacterial mats

A fiber-optic microphobe was used to analyze the spectral light gradients in benthic cyanobacterial mats with 50-micrometer depth resolution and 10-nm spectral resolution. Microcoleus chthononplastes mats were collected from hypersaline, coastal ponds at Guerrero Negro, Baja California. Gradients of spectral radiance, L, were measured at different angles through the mats and the spherically integrated scalar irradiance, Eo, was calculated. Maximal spectral light attenuation was found at the absorption peaks for the dominant photosynthetic pigments: chlorophyll a at 430 and 670 nm, carotenoids at 450-500 nm, phycocyanin at 620 nm, and bacteriochlorophyll a at 800-900 nm. Scattered light had a marked spectral effect on the scalar irradiance which near the mat surface reached up to 190% of the incident irradiance. The spherically integrated irradiance thus differed strongly from the incident irradiance both in total intensity and in spectral composition. These basic optical properties are important for the understanding of photosynthesis and light harvesting in benthic and epiphytic communities.     

A Downscaling Approach Toward High-Resolution Surface Mass Balance Over Antarctica

The Antarctic ice sheet surface mass balance shows high spatial variability over the coastal area. As state-of-the-art climate models usually require coarse resolutions to keep computational costs to a moderate level, they miss some local features that can be captured by field measurements. The downscaling approach adopted here consists of using a cascade of atmospheric models from large scale to meso-?? scale. A regional climate model (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) forced by meteorological reanalyses provides a diagnostic physically-based rain- and snowfall downscaling model with meteorological fields at the regional scale. Although the parameterizations invoked by the downscaling model are fairly simple, the knowledge of small-scale topography significantly improves the representation of spatial variability of precipitation and therefore that of the surface mass balance. Model evaluation is carried out with the help of shallow firn cores and snow height measurements provided by automatic weather stations. Although downscaling of blowing snow still needs to be implemented in the model, the net accumulation gradient across Law Dome summit is shown to be induced mostly by orographic effects on precipitation.     

An examination of snow redistribution over smooth land‐fast sea ice

An understanding of temporal evolution of snow on sea ice at different spatial scales is essential for improvement of snow parameterization in sea ice models. One of the problems we face, however, is that long‐term climate data are routinely available for land and not for sea ice. In this paper, we examine the temporal evolution of snow over smooth land‐fast first‐year sea ice using observational and modelled data. Changes in probability density functions indicate that depositional and drifting events control the evolution of snow distribution. Geostatistical analysis suggests that snowdrifts increased over the study period, and the orientation was related to the meteorological conditions. At the microscale, the temporal evolution of the snowdrifts was a product of infilling in the valleys between drifts. Results using two shore‐based climate reporting stations (Paulatuk and Tuktoyuktuk, NWT) suggest that on‐ice air temperature and relative humidity can be estimated using air temperature recorded at either station. Wind speed, direction and precipitation on ice cannot be accurately estimated using meteorological data from either station. The temporal evolution of snow distribution over smooth land‐fast sea ice was modelled using SnowModel and four different forcing regimes. The results from these model runs indicate a lack of agreement between observed distribution and model outputs. The reasons for these results are lack of meteorological measurements prior to the end of January, lack of spatially adequate surface topography and discrepancies between meteorological variables on land and ice. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

In the other 90%: phytoplankton responses to enhanced nutrient availability in the Great Barrier Reef Lagoon

Our view of how water quality effects ecosystems of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is largely framed by observed or expected responses of large benthic organisms (corals, algae, seagrasses) to enhanced levels of dissolved nutrients, sediments and other pollutants in reef waters. In the case of nutrients, however, benthic organisms and communities are largely responding to materials which have cycled through and been transformed by pelagic communities dominated by micro-algae (phytoplankton), protozoa, flagellates and bacteria. Because GBR waters are characterised by high ambient light intensities and water temperatures, inputs of nutrients from both internal and external sources are rapidly taken up and converted to organic matter in inter-reefal waters. Phytoplankton growth, pelagic grazing and remineralisation rates are very rapid. Dominant phytoplankton species in GBR waters have in situ growth rates which range from approximately 1 to several doublings per day. To a first approximation, phytoplankton communities and their constituent nutrient content turn over on a daily basis. Relative abundances of dissolved nutrient species strongly indicate N limitation of new biomass formation. Direct ((15)N) and indirect ((14)C) estimates of N demand by phytoplankton indicate dissolved inorganic N pools have turnover times on the order of hours to days. Turnover times for inorganic phosphorus in the water column range from hours to weeks. Because of the rapid assimilation of nutrients by plankton communities, biological responses in benthic communities to changed water quality are more likely driven (at several ecological levels) by organic matter derived from pelagic primary production than by dissolved nutrient stocks alone.     

Evaluating the effect of snow and ice melt in an Alpine headwater catchment and further downstream in the River Rhine

Abstract

The runoff regime of glacierized headwater catchments in the Alps is essentially characterized by snow and ice melt. High Alpine drainage basins influence distant downstream catchments of the Rhine River basin. In particular, during the summer months, low-flow conditions are probable with strongly reduced snow and ice melt under climate change conditions. This study attempts to quantify present and future contributions from snow and ice melt to summer runoff at different spatial scales. For the small Silvretta catchment (103 km²) in the Swiss Alps, with a glacierization of 7%, the HBV model and the glacio-hydrological model GERM are applied for calculating future runoff based on different regional climate scenarios. We evaluate the importance of snow and ice melt in the runoff regime. Comparison of the models indicates that the HBV model strongly overestimates the future contribution of glacier melt to runoff, as glaciers are considered as static components. Furthermore, we provide estimates of the current meltwater contribution of glaciers for several catchments downstream on the River Rhine during the month of August. Snow and ice melt processes have a significant direct impact on summer runoff, not only for high mountain catchments, but also for large transboundary basins. A future shift in the hydrological regime and the disappearance of glaciers might favour low-flow conditions during summer along the Rhine.

Citation Junghans, N., Cullmann, J. & Huss, M. (2011) Evaluating the effect of snow and ice melt in an Alpine headwater catchment and further downstream in the River Rhine. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(6), 981–993.     

Hydrological responses to climatic variability in a cold agricultural region

Extended severe dry and wet periods are frequently observed in the northern continental climate of the Canadian Prairies. Prairie streamflow is mainly driven by spring snowmelt of the winter snowpack, whilst summer rainfall is an important control on evapotranspiration and thus seasonality affects the hydrological response to drought and wet periods in complex ways. A field‐tested physically based model was used to investigate the influences of climatic variability on hydrological processes in this region. The model was set up to resolve agricultural fields and to include key cold regions processes. It was parameterized from local and regional measurements without calibration and run for the South Tobacco Creek basin in southern Manitoba, Canada. The model was tested against snow depth and streamflow observations at multiple scales and performed well enough to explore the impacts of wet and dry periods on hydrological processes governing the basin scale hydrological response. Four hydro‐climatic patterns with distinctive climatic seasonality and runoff responses were identified from differing combinations of wet/dry winter and summer seasons. Water balance analyses of these patterns identified substantive multiyear subsurface soil moisture storage depletion during drought (2001–2005) and recharge during a subsequent wet period (2009–2011). The fractional percentage of heavy rainfall days was a useful metric to explain the contrasting runoff volumes between dry and wet summers. Finally, a comparison of modeling approaches highlights the importance of antecedent fall soil moisture, ice lens formation during the snowmelt period, and peak snow water equivalent in simulating snowmelt runoff.     

Coherent variations of the obliquity components in global ice volume and ocean carbon reservoir over the past 5 Ma

The Milankovi theory stresses that the summer insolation in the high northern latitudes that is dominated by the precession cycle controls the glacial/interglacial cycles in global climate change.If the climate system responds linearly to the external insolation forcing,the precession cycle of 23 or 19 ka should dominate the variations in the climatic proxy records.I performed spectral and evolutive cross spectral analyses on the high resolution benthic 18O and 13C records from the South China Sea and the North Atlantic,the proxies of global ice volume and ocean carbon reservoir respectively.I found that the obliquity instead of the eccentricity or the precession is the most marked cycle in the global ice volume and ocean carbon reservoir variations over the past 5 Ma.The analysis further reveals that only at the obliquity band instead of the eccentricity or the precession band does the global ice volume and ocean carbon reservoir display consistently high coherency and stable phase relationship over the past 5 Ma.The consistently positive or near-zero phases of the benthic 18O relative to the benthic13C at the obliquity band suggest that the global carbon cycle is involved in the polar ice sheet growth as an important internal feedback,not a determinative driving factor.The obliquity instead of the precession or the eccentricity takes the dominant role of driving the global climate change during the Pliocene and Pleistocene.     

Climatic control on river discharge simulations,Zackenberg River drainage basin,northeast Greenland

A spatially distributed, physically based, hydrologic modeling system (MIKE SHE) was applied to quantify intra‐ and inter‐annual discharge from the snow and glacierized Zackenberg River drainage basin (512 km²; 20% glacier cover) in northeast Greenland. Evolution of snow accumulation, distribution by wind‐blown snow, blowing‐snow sublimation, and snow and ice surface melt were simulated by a spatially distributed, physically based, snow‐evolution modelling system (SnowModel) and used as input to MIKE SHE. Discharge simulations were performed for three periods 1997–2001 (calibration period), 2001–2005 (validation period), and 2071–2100 (scenario period). The combination of SnowModel and MIKE SHE shows promising results; the timing and magnitude of simulated discharge were generally in accordance with observations (R² = 0·58); however, discrepancies between simulated and observed discharge hydrographs do occur (maximum daily difference up to 44·6 m³ s^?1 and up to 9% difference between observed and simulated cumulative discharge). The model does not perform well when a sudden outburst of glacial dammed water occurs, like the 2005 extreme flood event. The modelling study showed that soil processes related to yearly change in active layer depth and glacial processes (such as changes in yearly glacier area, seasonal changes in the internal glacier drainage system, and the sudden release of glacial bulk water storage) need to be determined, for example, from field studies and incorporated in the models before basin runoff can be quantified more precisely. The SnowModel and MIKE SHE model only include first‐order effects of climate change. For the period 2071–2100, future IPCC A2 and B2 climate scenarios based on the HIRHAM regional climate model and HadCM3 atmosphere–ocean general circulation model simulations indicated a mean annual Zackenberg runoff about 1·5 orders of magnitude greater (around 650 mmWE year^?1) than from today 1997–2005 (around 430 mmWE year^?1), mainly based on changes in negative glacier net mass balance. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Microscale characterization of dissolved organic matter production and uptake in marine microbial mat communities

Intertidal marine microbial mats exhibited biologically mediated uptake of low molecular weight dissolved organic matter (DOM), including D-glucose, acetate, and an L-amino acid mixture at trace concentrations. Uptake of all compounds occurred in darkness, but was frequently enhanced under natural illumination. The photosystem 2 inhibitor, 3-(3,4-dichlorophenyl)-1,1-dimethyl urea (DCMU) generally failed to inhibit light-stimulated DOM uptake. Occasionally, light plus DCMU-amended treatments led to uptake rates higher than light-incubated samples, possibly due to phototrophic bacteria present in subsurface anoxic layers. Uptake was similar with either 3H- or 14C-labeled substrates, indicating that recycling of labeled CO2 via photosynthetic fixation was not interfering with measurements of light-stimulated DOM uptake. Microautoradiographs showed a variety of pigmented and nonpigmented bacteria and, to a lesser extent, cyanobacteria and eucaryotic microalgae involved in light-mediated DOM uptake. Light-stimulated DOM uptake was often observed in bacteria associated with sheaths and mucilage surrounding filamentous cyanobacteria, revealing a close association of organisms taking up DOM with photoautotrophic members of the mat community. The capacity for dark- and light-mediated heterotrophy, coupled to efficient retention of fixed carbon in the mat community, may help optimize net production and accretion of mats, even in oligotrophic waters.     

First‐year sea ice spring melt transitions in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from time‐series synthetic aperture radar data, 1992–2002

This paper synthesizes 10‐years' worth of interannual time‐series space‐borne ERS‐1 and RADARSAT‐1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data collected coincident with daily measurement of snow‐covered, land‐fast first‐year sea ice (FYI) geophysical and surface radiation data collected from the Seasonal Sea Ice Monitoring and Modeling Site, Collaborative‐Interdisciplinary Cryospheric Experiment and 1998 North Water Polynya study over the period 1992 to 2002. The objectives are to investigate the seasonal co‐relationship of the SAR time‐series dataset with selected surface mass (bulk snow thickness) and climate state variables (surface temperature and albedo) measured in situ for the purpose of measuring the interannual variability of sea ice spring melt transitions and validating a time‐series SAR methodology for sea ice surface mass and climate state parameter estimation. We begin with a review of the salient processes required for our interpretation of time‐series microwave backscatter from land‐fast FYI. Our results suggest that time‐series SAR data can reliably measure the timing and duration of surface albedo transitions at daily to weekly time‐scales and at a spatial scales that are on the order of hundreds of metres. Snow thickness on FYI immediately prior to melt onset explains a statistically significant portion of the variability in timing of SAR‐detected melt onset to pond onset for SAR time‐series that are made up of more than 25 images. Our results also show that the funicular regime of snowmelt, resolved in time‐series SAR data at a temporal resolution of approximately 2·5 images per week, is not detectable for snow covers less than 25 cm in thickness. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nutrient fluxes between water column and sediments: Potential influence of the pearl oyster culture

This study quantifies benthic nutrient fluxes and sedimentation rates in the Ahe Atoll lagoon (French Polynesia), in two stations located under pearl oyster frames, and two control stations away from the pearl culture facility. Dissolved inorganic nitrogen fluxes ranged between 2 and 35μmolNm(-2)h(-1) and Soluble Reactive Phosphorus varied between -3 and 8.2μmolPm(-2)h(-1). Particulate sedimentation rates beneath the oysters were approximately five times higher than in the control zone and the percentage of small particles (?63μm) were about the twice. In contrast, sediment composition was similar under and outside the direct influence of oyster frames. In this ecosystem, where primary production is dependent on the available nitrogen, our study revealed that, while highly variable, benthic fluxes could sometimes contribute up to 28% of the nitrogen demand for primary production.     

Evaluation of snow models in terrestrial biosphere models using ground observation and satellite data: impact on terrestrial ecosystem processes

Snow is important for water management, and an important component of the terrestrial biosphere and climate system. In this study, the snow models included in the Biome‐BGC and Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) terrestrial biosphere models are compared against ground and satellite observations over the Columbia River Basin in the US and Canada and the impacts of differences in snow models on simulated terrestrial ecosystem processes are analysed. First, a point‐based comparison of ground observations against model and satellite estimates of snow dynamics are conducted. Next, model and satellite snow estimates for the entire Columbia River Basin are compared. Then, using two different TOPS simulations, the default TOPS model (TOPS with TOPS snow model) and the TOPS model with the Biome‐BGC snow model, the impacts of snow model selection on runoff and gross primary production (GPP) are investigated. TOPS snow model predictions were consistent with ground and satellite estimates of seasonal and interannual variations in snow cover, snow water equivalent, and snow season length; however, in the Biome‐BGC snow model, the snow pack melted too early, leading to extensive underpredictions of snow season length and snow covered area. These biases led to earlier simulated peak runoff and reductions in summer GPP, underscoring the need for accurate snow models within terrestrial ecosystem models. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating snow distribution over a large area and its application for water resources

The spatial and temporal distribution of the snow water equivalent (SWE), snow density and snow depth were estimated by a method combining remote sensing technology and degree‐day techniques over a study area of 370 000 km². The advantages of this simulation model are its simplicity and the availability of degree‐day parameters, which can be successively evaluated by referring to snow area maps created from satellite images. This simulation worked very well for estimating SWE and helped to separate the areas of thin snow cover from heavier snowfall. However, shallow snow in warm regions led to some misjudgments in the snow area maps because of the time lag between when the satellite image was acquired and the simulation itself. Vulnerable areas, where a large variation in the amount of snow affects people's life, could be identified from the differences between heavy and light snow years. This vulnerability stems from a predicted lack of irrigation water for rice production caused by future climate change. The model developed in this study has the potential to contribute to water management activities and decision‐making processes when considering necessary adaptations to future climate change. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Response of snow processes to climate change: spatial variability in a small basin in the Spanish Pyrenees

In this study, the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform was used to create an alpine snow model including wind redistribution of snow and energy balance snowmelt to simulate the snowpack over the period 1996–2009 in a small (33 ha) snow‐dominated basin in the Spanish Pyrenees. The basin was divided into three hydrological response units (HRUs), based on contrasting physiographic and aerodynamic characteristics. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to calculate the snow water equivalent regime for various combinations of temperature and precipitation that differed from observed conditions. The results show that there was large inter‐annual variability in the snowpack in this region of the Pyrenees because of its marked sensitivity to climatic conditions. Although the basin is small and quite homogeneous, snowpack seasonality and inter‐annual evolution of the snowpack varied in each HRU. Snow accumulation change in relation to temperature change was approximately 20% for every 1 °C, and the duration of the snowpack was reduced by 20–30 days per °C. Melting rates decreased with increased temperature, and wind redistribution of snow was higher with decreased temperature. The magnitude and sign of changes in precipitation may markedly affect the response of the snowpack to changes in temperature. There was a non‐linear response of snow to individual and combined changes in temperature and precipitation, with respect to both the magnitude and sign of the change. This was a consequence of the complex interactions among climate, topography and blowing snow in the study basin. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.