基于多源数据的震害快速评估方法探讨

对目前基于GIS、遥感技术的地震灾害快速评估方法分别进行了分析,并通过汶川地震实例归纳总结了现有防震减灾软件系统建设取得的成绩和存在的问题,提出了一种利用GIS、遥感、地震现场数据等多源数据的综合地震灾害快速评估方法,并给出了其实现流程。     

城市建筑物震害三维模拟在GIS中的应用

地震的突发性和破坏性对人民的生命和财产造成巨大的损失,在财产和人口高度集中的城市地区更为严重,地震灾害损失分析作为防震减灾的重要环节具有现实意义.GIS因具有数学应用模型和空间分析功能已经被广泛应用在地震灾害损失分析工作中,但大都是基于二维的GIS,在表达建筑物的震前和震后信息方面存在不足.     

世界地震灾害损失的统计

有关全世界地震灾害损失的统计，能较全面提供实数者尚不多见，该文章介绍了世界地震灾害损失的统计情况，内容包括：世界地震灾害损失总计，年代阶段地震灾害损失的统计，统计方法，地震死亡人数的统计，经济损失的统计，中国地震灾害损失在全世界范围的比重。     

基于GIS的地震灾害损失预测

在地震危险性分析及建筑物和生命等的易损性分析的基础上，预测未来地震造成自然和人工建筑环境的灾害及其损失，这是地震灾害及其损失研究的基本思路。本文基于宏观经济指标的地震灾害损失预测模型，以2000年全国不变价格计算的人均GDP作为地震宏观易损性的分类指标，以某市（A、B县）为例进行未来15年地震灾害损失预测。其预测结果包括两大部分：县行政区预测结果和网格预测结果，其预测结果可以为确定地震重点监视防御区提供参考依据。     

2011年云南地震灾害综述

2011年云南地震活动频繁,地震灾情较重,地震共造成25人死亡,338人受伤,直接经济损失32亿元.结合云南省地震局的地震灾害评估资料,对2011年云南地震灾害的主要数据进行统计并总结其特性.结果表明:2011年云南省震害造成的损失位居全国第一位,经济损失、死亡及受伤人数分别占全国同期的52.4％、78.1％、66.8％,其特征表现为城市直下型地震危害严重;震害叠加现象明显;民生工程取得明显防震减灾效益.同时列出1992～2011年云南地震灾害的相应数据,并进行了简要对比.     

应用房屋震害指数进行地震灾害损失评估

提出了应用房屋震害指数进行地震灾害损失评估的方法。用本文的方法对１９９５年９月２０日苍山５．２级地震的震灾损失进行了评估。该方法具有快速、准确的优点     

震害评估系统中的宏观经济指标的网格化技术及实现

国内当前的地震灾害应急评估系统基础数据库以具有空间面属性的乡镇级行政区为最小统计单元,乡镇人口及各类房屋建筑面积在评估时一般按照行政区面积进行了平均化处理,而未考虑实际人口分布的差异.本文采用前人在人口密度与城乡空间分布及城乡GDP分布之间的统计模型,以及基于宏观经济指标的地震灾害快速评估思路,深入探讨了以乡镇行政区为...     

关于开展震害损失评估工作的几点建议

地震灾害损失评估是地震部门的一项职责。科学、准确地进行地震灾害损失评估是震后抢险救灾、重建家园、争取国内国际援助的重要依据。本文从城震灾害评估队伍的建立、充分利用灾区掌握的灾情、应用多种评估技术和方法，开展震灾预测以及编制地震灾害损失评估标准图集等几个方面，对我国目前的地震灾害损失评估工作提出了几点建议。     

城市地震灾害风险评价方法研究

从危险性评价、易损性评价以及防灾减灾能力评价3个方面阐述了城市地震灾害风险评价内容.回顾了地震灾害风险评价研究进展,指出了现有评价方法的不足.提出了基于地震小区划的城市地震危险性评价方法、基于城市用地类型的城市地震易损性评价方法以及基于专家打分法的城市防震减灾能力评价方法.最后设计了城市地震灾害风险评价流程,并给出了城市地震灾害风险区划算法.     

GIS技术应用于城市防震减灾工作

介绍了基于GIS技术的“上海市防震减灾应急决策信息系统”,该系统由7个功能模块组合,主要有：地震地质基本信息,地震灾害快速评估子系统,地震应急决策信息子系统,信息查询,系统维护管理等。介绍了彩红外航片遥感等软件应用技术,并提出此系统需改进之处。     

SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences SUBJECT INDEX TO VOLUME 57(2014)

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A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Distribution of throughfall and stemflow in multi‐strata agroforestry,perennial monoculture,fallow and primary forest in central Amazonia,Brazil

The partitioning of rain water into throughfall, stemflow and interception loss when passing through plant canopies depends on properties of the respective plant species, such as leaf area and branch angles. In heterogeneous vegetation, such as tropical forest or polycultural systems, the presence of different plant species may consequently result in a mosaic of situations with respect to quantity and quality of water inputs into the soil. As these processes influence not only the water availability for the plants, but also water infiltration and nutrient leaching, the understanding of plant effects on the repartitioning of rain water may help in the optimization of land use systems and management practices. We measured throughfall and stemflow in a perennial polyculture (multi‐strata agroforestry), monocultures of peach palm (Bactris gasipaes) for fruit and for palmito, a monoculture of cupuaçu (Theobroma grandiflorum), spontaneous fallow and primary forest during one year in central Amazonia, Brazil. The effect on rain water partitioning was measured separately for four useful tree species in the polyculture and for two tree species in the primary forest. Throughfall at two stem distances, and stemflow, differed significantly between tree species, resulting in pronounced spatial patterns of water input into the soil in the polyculture system. For two tree species, peach palm for fruit (Bactris gasipaes) and Brazil nut trees (Bertholletia excelsa), the water input into the soil near the stem was significantly higher than the open‐area rainfall. This could lead to increased nutrient leaching when fertilizer is applied close to the stem of these trees. In the primary forest, such spatial patterns could also be detected, with significantly higher water input near a palm (Oenocarpus bacaba) than near a dicotyledonous tree species (Eschweilera sp.). Interception losses were 6·4% in the polyculture, 13·9 and 12·3% in the peach palm monocultures for fruit and for palmito, respectively, 0·5% in the cupuaçu monoculture and 3·1% in the fallow. With more than 20% of the open‐area rainfall, the highest stemflow contributions to the water input into the soil were measured in the palm monocultures and in the fallow. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Anthropogenic Eutrophication and Red Tide Outbreak in Lacustrine Systems of the Kashmir Himalaya

Red tide, a recurrent phenomenon has become conspicuous in several Kashmir lake ecosystems since 1991. The responsible organism (Euglena pedunculata), a rare flagellate rediscovered in the Kashmir Himalaya (Khan 1993) caused first and unprecedented red tide outbreak, constituting a maximum of 96% of resident numerical phytoplankton density in Dal Lake. At present, conflicting hypotheses exist on the generation of causal assemblage(s) imparting redness to waters: Jeeji Bai (1991) linked its origin to acid precipitation – a fallout of burning oil‐fields during the Gulf War – whilst Khan (1993) holds local factor(s) responsible. Field/experimental studies support the latter contention that the influx of untreated sewage, in unison with warm temperatures, high levels of PhAR, iron and interruption to hydrological flow‐pattern together with absence/or reduction in grazing activity created conducive environmental milieu for red tide outbreak. Dal Lake “red tide” drifted the bloom‐inoculum to other waters, including Lake Wular, where additional ecological niches were carved out, threatening the aesthetic value and biological diversity of Kashmir lakes. Ecological monitoring indicates frequent seasonal red tide occurrence in Dal Lake (including summer‐autumn event of 1998) which testifies its unabated eutrophication status. Further studies are needed on ecological adaptability and biogeographic distribution of this rare and unique red tide‐causing flagellate.