吉兰泰盐湖沉积物孢粉记录的季风边缘区全新世气候演化

全新世气候具有不稳定性,且存在着区域差异,在季风边缘区尤为显著.因此,本研究选取季风边缘区吉兰泰盐湖沉积物的孢粉记录并结合AMS14C测年结果,对该地区全新世的古植被演化及古气候变化历史进行了重建.结果表明,在全新世阶段,该地区植被类型未发生变化,以干旱的荒漠植被为主.早全新世(10.5 8.5 cal ka BP),以蒿属孢粉为主,伴随出现少量藜科、禾本科及麻黄属孢粉,蒿藜比(A/C比值)相对稳定(4.11左右),指示全新世早期气候逐步转湿的过程,在8.5 cal ka BP,蒿属孢粉数量下降且被藜科孢粉取代,指示一次明显气候干旱事件;中全新世(8.5 3.5 cal ka BP),蒿属孢粉含量增加及藜科孢粉含量降低,A/C比值在7.1 cal ka BP左右达到峰值,指示该地区中全新世气候最为湿润;晚全新世(3.5 cal ka BP至今),藜科孢粉含量增加且超过早全新世,A/C比值低至3.66,区域呈现明显的干旱化趋势.此外,结合吉兰泰盐湖沉积物矿物组成结果,发现中全新世湖泊沉积物中,钙芒硝大量出现,一定程度上指示降水量增多所带来的淡水注入,与孢粉指标指示该阶段湿润的结果一致.通过区域对比,发现吉兰泰地区在全新世时期的气候演化模式与东亚季风区具有较好的一致性,表明该地区受到东亚夏季风的影响较大,尤其是在中全新世,东亚夏季风增强,带来较多的降水,气候湿润.     

北方环境敏感带岱海湖泊沉积所记录的全新世中期环境特征

对中国北方环境敏感带封闭湖泊岱海获得的高质量沉积物岩芯, 进行了年代学、以及有机质含量(TOC, TN)、碳酸盐含量(CaCO3)和孢粉等代用气候环境指标的测试与分析. 结果表明: 全新世以来岱海沉积物中TOC, TN等有机质含量的变化与孢粉百分含量、孢粉通量的变化相当吻合, 并在约6.7~3.5 ka BP(日历年约7.6~3.6 ka BP)期间达到全新世以来的高值; 6.7 ka BP以来, 沉积物中碳酸盐含量与有机质含量的变化也具有很好的相关性, 也在6.7~3.5 ka BP期间达到峰值; 而在早全新世及中全新世早期9.0~6.7 ka BP(日历年龄约10~7.6 ka BP)期间, 相对较低的有机质含量、孢粉通量却对应较高的碳酸盐含量. 上述关系揭示: 在6.7~3.5 ka BP期间, 岱海流域生产力、有效降水条件均得到很大增强, 进而有可能在水动力条件增强的情况下, 携带较多的流域有机质、花粉以及碳酸盐类物质入湖, 并造成有机质和碳酸盐的同时富集. 而9.0~6.7 ka BP期间, 较低的有机质含量、孢粉通量以及高碳酸盐含量恰恰说明在流域有效降水减少、植被相对匮乏的背景下, 湖泊自身可能的高蒸发率. 二者具有不同的气候环境背景. 基于上述认识, 认为中全新世6.7~3.5 ka BP期间极可能是岱海流域降水充沛、植被丰盛的气候适宜期, 而不是通常认为的中全新世早期或早全新世.     

CMIP5模式对西北太平洋SST的模拟偏差及可能成因分析

利用参加第五次国际耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5,CMIP5)的21个全球耦合气候模式的输出结果,利用海表热收支诊断方法,讨论了CMIP5模式对西北太平洋海表面温度(SST)的模拟偏差及其可能成因.结果表明,大部分CMIP5模式模拟的西北太平洋SST在全年都有持续的冷偏差,且在夏季最大,在冬季最小.CMIP5模式模拟的西北太平洋SST冷偏差是海盆尺度的,并且主要分布在中低纬度海洋内区.混合层热收支诊断分析研究表明,大气过程所致的海表净热通量模拟偏少是造成西北太平洋SST模拟冷偏差的主要原因,其中大气过程导致的潜热通量模拟偏多是造成冬、春、秋三季SST模拟冷偏差的最主要因素,而在夏季海表短波辐射模拟偏少和潜热模拟偏多对SST模拟冷偏差均有重要贡献.进一步分析表明,冬、春季西北太平洋低层风速偏大可能与海洋大陆区域的正降水偏差有关,而夏、秋季风速偏差则可能与热带辐合带的模拟偏差有关.冬、春季海洋大陆区域的正降水异常及夏、秋季ITCZ的模拟偏差使得北太平洋地区产生东北风异常,该东北风异常叠加在气候态风场上,使得北太平洋地区风速增强,造成海表潜热通量模拟偏多,海温模拟偏冷.     

东亚中全新世的气候模拟及其温度变化机制探讨

大量地质证据证实了东亚和北美中全新世(6 kaBP)全年和冬夏季气温高于现代.然而,国际上PMIP计划下18个模式的古气候模拟结果未能捕捉北半球大陆中低纬地区冬季升温的气候特征.这些古气候模拟的冬季降温与地质资料揭示的冬季升温存在着巨大差异,反映出仅仅在太阳辐射变化驱动下的古气候模拟存在重大缺陷. 使用含有陆面过程的全球9层大气环流谱模式(AGCM+SSiB),采用现代植被和中全新世植被预置的不同下垫面对6 kaBP气候及其植被影响进行了模拟试验.古植被强迫下的模拟结果表明,中全新世时东亚地区各季均出现升温.尤其是模拟的冬季增温与地质资料重建的气候特征接近,反映了除太阳辐射的变化外,植被的变化对东亚地区中全新世的增温有着重要作用.该模拟结果的意义在于:(1)用具有物理机制的数值化模型并采用实际下垫面边界条件,能够较好地模拟出中全新世气候特征;(2)从动力机制的角度揭示了中全新世气候与现代气候存在巨大差别的原因在于辐射变化和下垫面植被变化;(3)中全新世下垫面植被的改变引起的地表反射率变化使得东亚陆面与西太平洋表面的热力差异随季节发生变化,因而中全新世夏季风环流增强,而冬季风环流减弱,冷空气活动受到抑制,使得中国区域冬季温度增加, 形成暖冬气候特征.     

广东四会古森林地下生态系统碳同位素组成及其古气候意义

通过研究四会地下古森林沉积剖面总有机碳及细根的碳同位素组成,揭示珠江三角洲地区在中晚全新世4．5～0．6ka BP期间的气候和地理环境变化特征．研究结果表明：在4．5—0．6ka BP期间,该地区的主要植被类型为C3植被．古森林在4ka BP左右于湿地环境中开始发育,在3ka BP左右与湿地同时消失,表明在3ka BP左右该地区的气候可能发生过急剧的变化．模拟结果显示：在3．5-3ka BP期间,该地区大气CO2浓度上升,气候有变暖的趋势;3～1．2ka BP期间的地层^14C年代呈现大的跨度,这可能与新构造运动过程中地层抬升并遭到强烈剥蚀有关．在1．2～0．6ka BP期间,该地区为陆相沉积环境,植被的生物量日渐减少．古森林的消失可能与在3ka BP左右研究区域气候变干有关,热带辐合带的南移可能是导致气候变化的主要机制．     

末次冰消期以来巽他陆架高分辨率的孢粉记录

根据南海南部巽他陆坡上的柱状剖面SONNE 18287的高分辨率的孢粉记录, 重建16500 a以来该地区植被和气候的变化历史. 研究结果发现冰消期的16.5~13.9 ka BP期间, 植被是以低山雨林和低地雨林为主, 蕨类的低含量及大量的低山雨林成分, 反映了较为凉湿的气候. 在13.9~10.2 ka BP期间, 热带低地雨林含量和蕨类植物含量的迅速增长说明了气温升高, 而花粉沉积速率的降低反映海平面逐渐上升, 研究点与植被源地的距离加大. 全新世(10.2 ka BP以来), 花粉沉积速率进一步降低, 仅约为冰消期的1/10, 说明巽他陆架已完全被淹没, 孢粉主要来自周围岛屿植被. 10.2~7 ka BP期间的早全新世, 低含量的蕨类孢子反映了气温降低; 到中全新世(7~3.6 ka BP)蕨类孢子含量突然升高, 反映了一个相对暖期.     

中国东部山地泥炭高分辨率腐殖化度记录的晚冰期以来气候变化

对中国东部中纬度季风区内的两处山地泥炭——神农架大九湖泥炭和天目山千亩田泥炭腐殖化度进行了研究,并对两剖面的孢粉记录、有机质含量、TOC和Rb／Sr对比分析,结果表明在东亚季风区山间盆地,气候越干冷时泥炭的分解就越强烈,以吸光度表征的腐殖化度就越高;相反,当气候较温暖潮湿时泥炭主要处于还原状态,分解较慢,腐殖化度较低．大九湖剖面的腐殖化度记录了晚冰期（约16．0～11．4cal ka BP）中的新仙女木（YD）（约11．4～12．6cal ka BP）冷干事件、博令．阿勒罗德暖湿期（B．A暖期,约12．6～15．2cal ka BP）、最老仙女木冷干事件（OD,约15．2～16．0cal ka BP）、早全新世的湿润期（约11．4—9．4cal ka BP）、8．2cal ka BP前后的冷干事件和约7．0～4．2cal ka BP之间的全新世最佳适宜期．神农架大九湖和天目山千亩田近5000a以来的泥炭腐殖化度记录有着很好的一致性,表明相近纬度不同经度的山地泥炭对东亚季风降水变化的响应是同步的．近5000a来的气候变化在两个山地泥剖面中几乎同步记录有3大阶段：4．9～3．5cal ka BP,季风降水整体处于高值,但波动剧烈,其中,在约4．2cal ka BP前后,季风降水急剧下降,在3．7cal ka BP前后达到最干旱的峰值后又快速回升：3．5～0．9cal ka BP,季风降水强度整体较弱,但也存在明显的次级干湿波动;0．9cal ka BP以来,吸光度值逐渐降低,表明季风降水增多．与中国东部季风区其他高分辨率沉积记录对比,文中亚高山泥炭记录的约1．6万年以来的气候变化响应了北半球夏季太阳辐射的统一驱动．     

前冬南半球环状模对春季华南降水的影响及其机理

利用相关、合成、奇异值分解等统计诊断和数值模拟方法,分析了前冬(12—2月)南半球环状模(SAM)对春季(3—5月)中国华南降水的可能影响及其机理.诊断分析的结果表明,前冬南半球环状模与春季华南降水存在显著的负相关关系,也即前冬SAM偏强(弱),对应春季华南降水偏少(多).为了探讨这种南半球中高纬信号影响滞后一个季节的华南降水的物理机制,需要考虑下垫面海洋的桥梁作用.诊断分析的结果表明,当前冬SAM偏强时,南半球中高纬海洋的潜热释放受到海表风速影响发生变化,导致30°S—45°S海温偏高, 45°S—70°S海温偏低,并且异常的海温信号可以持续到次年春季.这种前冬SAM偏强时的春季海温异常信号,对应着春季西北太平洋副热带高压位置偏东且强度偏弱,西北太平洋上盛行异常气旋式环流,华南地区上空对流层低层有异常东北风和风场辐散,西南水汽输送较常年减弱,为春季降水偏少提供了有利的条件.前冬SAM偏弱时,南半球中高纬的海温异常及其引起的华南区域大气环流异常相反,有利于华南降水偏多.利用CAM3进行海温敏感性试验,也证明了上述南半球中高纬海温异常对应的环流异常.模拟结果表明,SAM偏强时的海温异常,对应着华南上空对流层低层的东北风异常、风场辐散、以及下沉运动,不利于华南降水生成;SAM偏弱时的海温异常,对应的环流异常相反,有利于华南降水增多,验证了资料诊断的结论.综上,在前冬SAM影响春季华南降水的过程中,体现了海气耦合桥的作用,即:海洋储存了冬季SAM的异常信号并在春季释放,通过影响春季大气环流,进一步影响华南春季降水.因此,前冬SAM为华南春季降水预测提供了一个有意义的前期信号.     

中亚东部晚全新世水文气候变化及可能成因

中亚东部水文气候变化对中纬大气环流非常敏感.为了查明该地区水文气候的长期变化及其与大气环流的关系,文章利用位于中天山深水湖泊——赛里木湖钻孔岩芯,在137Cs、210Pb和AMS14C定年基础上,对湖泊岩芯有机碳、有机氮、碳/氮比、碳酸盐含量和粒度等多指标进行了分析,重建了晚全新世以来该地区水文气候变化历史.结果显示,晚全新世以来共发生了4次降水显著增加时期(4000~3780、3590~3210、2800~2160和890~280cal a BP)和1次降水微弱增加时期(1700~1370cal a BP),这与中亚东部地区已有的降水/湿度记录相吻合,表明晚全新世以来该地区具有相似的水文气候变化模式.太阳活动减弱以及整个环北大西洋地区大气环流南移,特别是中纬西风主要路径的南移,可能是中亚东部地区晚全新世水文气候变化的最主要原因.此外,赛里木湖研究结果还揭示了该地区最近100年降水显著增加,但中亚地区未来水文气候如何变化仍需更多不同载体的深入研究.     

湖北江汉平原JZ-2010剖面沉积物粒度特征与环境演变

通过对江汉平原JZ-2010湖相沉积剖面AMS14C年代的精确测定与校正,以及代用指标粒度、磁化率的分析和研究,重建了研究区12.76 cal ka BP以来的环境演变过程:1)12.76-6.70 cal ka BP,区域环境处于偏干的晚冰期向湿润的早全新世发展阶段.2)6.70-4.47 cal ka BP,区域环境湿润,为湿度配置最佳的全新世适宜期,这是大溪文化向屈家岭文化转变时期自然背景.3)4.47-3.67 cal ka BP,区域气候环境偏干,其中经历了明显的4.2 cal ka BP干旱事件.4)3.67-1.22 cal ka BP时期,环境向湿润发展;在2.5 cal ka BP左右水动力条件明显变强,此时正对应于古云梦泽扩张时期.5)1.22 cal ka BP后,研究区处于湖泊面积减小的干旱时期;人类活动带来的影响达到高峰,围湖造田等农业活动也是江汉平原湖群趋于衰退的重要原因之一.     

High-resolution peat records for Holocene monsoon history in the eastern Tibetan Plateau

Holocene peat sediment has been attached impor-tance to reconstruct the Holocene climatic variations because it can provide much palaeoclimatic informa-tion with high resolution. Analysis on the plant mac-rofossil[1], pollen[2―4], isotope ratio[5―9], element con-tent[10,11], total organic carbon (TOC)[12], humifica-tion[13,14] and grayscale[12] for peat sediment has shown its superiorities as a recorder medium for reconstruct-ing the Holocene climate. Hong et al. have done great fruitful w…     

Preliminary reconstruction of the desert and sandy land distributions in China since the last interglacial period

The desert and sandy land are the products of arid climate. The spatial distribution of modern deserts and sandy land in China and their relation to climate show following characteristics: arid and hyper-arid desert zones, at isohyet of less than 200 mm, are dominated by mobile dunes; semi-arid steppe and arid desert steppe with the precipitation between 200-400mm, are dominated by semi-fixed and fixed sand dunes; the precipitation of sub-humid forest grassland and humid forest zones with scattered fixed sand land is higher than 400 mm. With this as reference, in combination with considerable amount of paleoclimatic data in desert regions and adjacent regions, the distributions of desert and sandy land in China during the last interglacial period, the last glacial maximum (LGM), and the Holocene megathermal, were preliminarily reconstructed. The results compared with that of today show that the distribution of desert and sandy land in China was greatly dwindled during last interglacial period, and the mobile dune area was about two-thirds of that of today's, but greatly expanded during LGM. However, the dwindling area of desert and sandy land in the Holocene megathermal was smaller than that in the last interglacial period. The forcing mechanism was mainly related to the changes of East Asian winter and summer monsoon, south-northward swing of the westerlies and the variations of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau monsoon intensity caused by global climate changes during the cold and warm intervals since the last interglacial period.     

Eco-environmental changes in the Chinese Loess Plateau during low-eccentricity interglacial Marine Isotope Stage 19

Eco-environmental changes during interglacials with an astronomical background similar to that of the Holocene are potentially helpful for understanding the future climatic evolution. Marine oxygen isotope stage(MIS) 19 is similar to the Holocene in astronomical background, both being characterized by a low eccentricity of the Earth's orbit. However, MIS 19 has attracted research attention only recently and therefore less is known about eco-environmental changes during this interval,especially based on terrestrial records. In the Chinese Loess Plateau(CLP), the S7 paleosol can provide valuable terrestrial paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental record for MIS 19. Here, high-resolution terrestrial snail records from the L8–L7 strata of the Huining, Xifeng and Luochuan sequences in the CLP were analyzed in order to characterize spatio-temporal changes in climate and eco-environment during MIS 20–18. The results show that in all three sections the late part of MIS 20 was dominated by abundant cold-aridiphilous mollusc species, indicating that cold and dry climatic conditions prevailed across the entire CLP,under the strong influence of the winter monsoon. The mollusc fauna of MIS 19 were dominated by warmth-loving and thermohumidiphilous species that enable the definition of two climatic stages. The early part of MIS 19(～790–778 ka) was marked by warm and humid conditions, as evidenced by high abundances of warmth-loving and thermo-humidiphilous species. This interval was slightly warmer than today and it lasted for ～12 kyr. The climate of the later part of MIS 19(～778–761 ka) was more moderate, and increased proportions of cold-aridiphilous and warmth-loving species were recorded. The warmth of this period was similar to that of today, but the climatic fluctuations were stronger. During the early part of MIS 18(～761–745 ka), the Xifeng and Luochuan sections in the eastern CLP still maintained high abundances of warmth-loving and thermo-humidiphilous species, indicating that the moderate climatic conditions during late MIS 19 continued during early MIS 18, lasting for another～15 kyr, and that the influence of the summer monsoon remained strong in the eastern CLP during early MIS 18. However, in the western CLP, cold-aridiphilous species in the Huining section became dominant during early MIS 18, reflecting the prevalence of a cold and dry glacial climate, with the strong influence of the winter monsoon. These findings indicate that a steeper climatic gradient and a pronounced regional environmental difference existed between the eastern and western CLP during the early part of MIS 18. Comparison of our mollusc results with the variation of Earth orbital parameters suggested that climate changes in the CLP during MIS 20–18 were likely controlled mainly by insolation changes forced by the configuration of Earth orbital parameters. The unique orbital configuration during the low eccentricity interglacial-to-glacial transition could have strengthened the East Asian summer monsoon which favored the amelioration of the eco-environment in the CLP, especially in the eastern CLP where the summer monsoon exerted a strong influence. Thus we speculate that, under natural climatic conditions,the climate of the CLP may remain in a warm, humid state for another 30 kyr, although climatic instability and the seasonal differences between winter and summer could strengthen.     

欧亚地区夏季大气环流年际变化的关键区及亚洲夏季风的关联信号

本文利用资料分析和数值模拟方法研究了欧亚地区夏季大气环流的相关性及其与亚洲夏季风的关联信号,以期为欧亚地区的气候变异及可预测性研究提供科学依据.结果表明:欧亚区域同期(JJA)500 hPa高度场年际变化的关键区包括热带区、中纬度的贝加尔湖和巴尔喀什湖之间以及欧洲地中海附近地区;表面气温的关键区主要位于热带海洋;海平面气压的关键区包括热带的海洋性大陆区域、印度洋和非洲大陆赤道附近部分区域、中高纬的贝加尔湖与巴尔喀什湖之间的地区.另外,夏季大气环流年际变化的春季关键区明显西移/南退,特别是表面气温(其西太平洋区不再是关键区).公用气候系统模式CCSM4.0的大气模式在给定海温年际变化的情况下对于上述大气环流相关场及其关键区的模拟基本合理,其中500 hPa高度场的模拟结果较好,海平面气压场的结果逊之;对于同期和前期的结果,模式都有夸大西太平洋海温影响的倾向.对于东亚夏季风指数与大气环流的同期年际变化信号而言,其空间分布基本表现为以30°N为界呈西南东北向的波列状分布;其春季前期信号中,30°N以南的显著区几乎都位于海洋,30°N以北主要位于欧洲、巴尔喀什湖与贝加尔湖之间的地区.南亚夏季风指数的前期显著相关区比同期明显西移/南退.总之,模式的模拟结果和观测结果相当吻合,但其同期模拟结果比前期的更好一些.这些结果说明:模式对于大气环流年际变化的耦合变化信息的刻画是基本合理的,这为利用气候模式进行有关可预测性研究和降尺度预测研究奠定了基础.     

Mechanisms controlling the seasonal mixed-layer temperature and salinity of the Indonesian seas

We examine the seasonal mixed-layer temperature (MLT) and salinity (MLS) budgets in the Banda–Arafura Seas region (120–138° E, 8–3° S) using an ECCO ocean-state estimation product. MLT in these seas is relatively high during November–May (austral spring through fall) and relatively low during June–September (austral winter and the period associated with the Asian summer monsoon). Surface heat flux makes the largest contribution to the seasonal MLT tendency, with significant reinforcement by subsurface processes, especially turbulent vertical mixing. Temperature declines (the MLT tendency is negative) in May–August when seasonal insolation is smallest and local winds are strong due to the southeast monsoon, which causes surface heat loss and cooling by vertical processes. In particular, Ekman suction induced by local wind stress curl raises the thermocline in the Arafura Sea, bringing cooler subsurface water closer to the base of the mixed layer where it is subsequently incorporated into the mixed layer through turbulent vertical mixing; this has a cooling effect. The MLT budget also has a small, but non-negligible, semi-annual component since insolation increases and winds weaken during the spring and fall monsoon transitions near the equator. This causes warming via solar heating, reduced surface heat loss, and weakened turbulent mixing compared to austral winter and, to a lesser extent, compared to austral summer. Seasonal MLS is dominated by ocean processes rather than by local freshwater flux. The contributions by horizontal advection and subsurface processes have comparable magnitudes. The results suggest that ocean dynamics play a significant part in determining both seasonal MLT and MLS in the region, such that coupled model studies of the region should use a full ocean model rather than a slab ocean mixed-layer model.     

不同时间尺度青海湖沉积物总有机碳对气候变化的敏感性

湖泊沉积物总有机碳（TOC）含量通常作为表征流域和湖泊生产力的指标,在亚洲季风区也常常被当作夏季风的代用指标,被广泛应用于气候与环境变化研究.本文梳理了过去千年、全新世以及冰期-间冰期时间尺度上青海湖沉积物TOC的变化特征,并探讨了其指示气候变化的敏感性与有效性.结果表明,过去千年青海湖沉积物TOC含量与区域暖季温度和降水表现出较为一致的周期性波动.通过对比全新世区域夏季温度、基于孢粉的降水定量重建结果,以及湖泊水位、风沙活动反映的湿度状况等,发现不能简单地将青海湖沉积物TOC含量或沉积通量作为夏季风强度或者季风降水强度的代用指标.青海湖沉积物TOC含量在冰期和间冰期表现出巨大的差异,指示了冰期-间冰期时间尺度上较大的温度与降水变幅.因此,不同地域条件及不同时间尺度下,湖泊沉积物TOC对气候变化的敏感性不同,将湖泊沉积物TOC含量作为亚洲夏季风的代用指标需要特别谨慎,特别是在高寒气候区.     

Change of Indonesian Throughflow outflow in response to East Asian monsoon and ENSO activities since the Last Glacial

The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) links upper ocean waters of the west Pacific and Indian Ocean, modulates heat and fresh water budgets between these oceans, and in turn plays an important role in global climate change. The climatic phenomena such as the East Asian monsoon and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exert a strong influence on flux, water properties and vertical stratification of the ITF. This work studied sediments of Core SO18462 that was retrieved from the outflow side of the ITF in the Timor Sea in order to investigate response of the ITF to monsoon and ENSO activities since the last glacial. Based on Mg/Ca ratios and oxygen isotopes in shells of planktonic foraminiferal surface and thermocline species, seawater temperatures and salinity of both surface and thermocline waters and vertical thermal gradient of the ITF outflow were reconstructed. Records of Core SO18462 were then compared with those from Core 3cBX that was recovered from the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP). The results displayed that similar surface waters occurred in the Timor Sea and the WPWP during the last glacial. Since ～16 ka, an apparent difference in surface waters between these two regions exists in salinity, indicated by much fresher waters in the Timor Sea than in the WPWP. In contrast, there is little change in difference of sea surface temperatures (SSTs). With regard to thermocline temperature (TT), it increased until ～11.5 ka since the last glacial, and then remained an overall unchanged trend in the WPWP but continuously decreased in the Timor Sea towards the late Holocene. Since ～6 ka, thermocline waters have tended to be close to each other in between the Timor Sea and the WPWP. It is indicated that intensified precipitation due to East Asian monsoon and possible ENSO cold phase significantly freshened surface waters over the Indonesian Seas, impeding the ITF surface flow and in turn having enhanced thermocline flow during the Holocene. Consequently, thermocline water of the ITF outflow was cooling and thermocline was shoaling towards the late Holocene. It is speculated that, in addition to strengthening of East Asian winter monsoon, increasing ENSO events during the late Holocene likely played an important role in influencing thermocline depth of the ITF outflow.     

Palaeomonsoon vicissitudes in eastern desert region of China since last interglacial period

Based on the geological records, the palaeomonsoon in eastern desert region of China is divided into three major evolution stages, i.e. summer monsoon prevailing stage of last interglacial period (130-70kaB.P.), winter monsoon prevailing stage of last glacial period (70-10 kaB. P.), and unstable summer monsoon prevailing stage of postglacial period (10 kaB. P. to present) and further divided into several substages. The conversion between summer monsoon and winter monsoon in the region is dominated by the sudden change process. The north limit of summer monsoon in the region retreated to the north limit of sandy loess zone of the Loess Plateau in the last glacial period from the Mazong Mts. -Ulan Bator of last interglacial period, then it entered Shandan-Yabrai region in the optimum period of the Holocene, and finally it retreated to the present extended line from north piedmont of the Yinshan Mts to Hulun Buir. This shows that the summer monsoon caused by East Asian monsoon circulation tends to be weakened fluctuationally. However, the factors affecting the monsoon vicissitudes are complex, so special attention should be paid to the study of the short-period climatic fluctuations of the Holocene.     

Seasonal Prediction for the Indian Monsoon Region with FSU Ocean-atmosphere Coupled Model: Model Mean and 2002 Anomalous Drought

Seasonal climate prediction for the Indian summer monsoon season is critical for strategic planning of the region. The mean features of the Indian summer monsoon and its variability, produced by versions of the ‘Florida State University Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model’ (FSUCGCM) hindcasts, are investigated for the period 1987 to 2002. The coupled system has full global ocean and atmospheric models with coupled assimilation. Four member models were created by choosing different combinations of parameterizations of the physical processes in the atmospheric model component. Lower level wind flow patterns and rainfall associated with the summer monsoon season are examined from this fully coupled model seasonal integrations. By comparing with observations, the mean monsoon condition simulated by this coupled model for the June, July and August periods is seen to be reasonably realistic. The overall spatial low-level wind flow patterns and the precipitation distributions over the Indian continent and adjoining oceanic regions are comparable with the respective analyses. The anomalous below normal large-scale precipitation and the associated anomalous low-level wind circulation pattern for the summer monsoon season of 2002 was predicted by the model three months in advance. For the Indian summer monsoon, the ensemble mean is able to reproduce the mean features better compared to individual member models.     

全球12000aBP以来火山爆发记录及对气候变化影响的评估

全新世气候变化的动力成因,至今未有定论．大量地质证据揭示了全新世气候多次降温,并反映出与火山爆发有时问对应关系．现代气候观测证明了火山灰进入平流层滞留后随环流扩散成为太阳辐射的屏障层,从而导致地表降温．停留在地质火山爆发和伞新世气候在逐个点遥相关研究上,难以从宏观机制上加以认识．本文试图对地质火山影响古气候变化的定性推论与现代火山气候效应这两个环节,给予动力机制上的联系和分析．通过火山地质记录的现代气候效应类比,对地质火山数据进行集成,所反映的五次全新世强火山爆发集中期与地质记录的寒冷期／降温期／新冰期能够对应．对火山爆发集中期和平静期两种气候状况,通过三维大气环流模式进行气候数值模拟,评估火山灰产生的不同区域的降温效应．模拟结果表明,火山灰阳伞效应造成北半球年平均温度普遍降低,且具有明显的区域差异．高纬度降温幅度大于低纬度,夏季降温幅度大于冬季．全新世火山影响气候时空记录和火山灰敏感性气候试验为进一步探讨全新世气候变化成因提供重要的科学依据,也为最终认识现代气候系统变化以及对未来十年一百年尺度的气候预测提供重要的参照系．