Prediction of brittleness based on anisotropic rock physics model for kerogen-rich shale

The construction of a shale rock physics model and the selection of an appropriate brittleness index (BI) are two significant steps that can influence the accuracy of brittleness prediction. On one hand, the existing models of kerogen-rich shale are controversial, so a reasonable rock physics model needs to be built. On the other hand, several types of equations already exist for predicting the BI whose feasibility needs to be carefully considered. This study constructed a kerogen-rich rock physics model by performing the selfconsistent approximation and the differential effective medium theory to model intercoupled clay and kerogen mixtures. The feasibility of our model was confirmed by comparison with classical models, showing better accuracy. Templates were constructed based on our model to link physical properties and the BI. Different equations for the BI had different sensitivities, making them suitable for different types of formations. Equations based on Young’s Modulus were sensitive to variations in lithology, while those using Lame’s Coefficients were sensitive to porosity and pore fluids. Physical information must be considered to improve brittleness prediction.     

Rock physics model of tight oil siltstone for seismic prediction of brittleness

Tight oil siltstones are rocks with complex structure at pore scale and are characterized by low porosity and low permeability at macroscale. The production of tight oil siltstone reservoirs can be increased by hydraulic fracturing. For optimal fracking results, it is desirable to map the ability to fracture based on seismic data prior to fracturing. Brittleness is currently thought to be a key parameter for evaluating the ability to fracture. To link seismic information to the brittleness distribution, a rock physics model is required. Currently, there exists no commonly accepted rock physics model for tight oil siltstones. Based on the observed correlation between porosity and mineral composition and known microstructure of tight oil siltstone in Daqing oilfield of Songliao basin, we develop a rock physics model by combining the Voigt–Reuss–Hill average, self-consistent approximation and differential effective medium theory. This rock physics model allows us to explore the dependence of the brittleness on porosity, mineral composition, microcrack volume fraction and microcrack aspect ratio. The results show that, as quartz content increases and feldspar content decreases, Young's modulus tends to increase and Poisson ratio decreases. This is taken as a signature of higher brittleness. Using well log data and seismic inversion results, we demonstrate the versatility of the rock physics template for brittleness prediction.     

Permeability Evolution and Rock Brittle Failure

This paper reports an experimental study of the evolution of permeability during rock brittle failure and a theoretical analysis of rock critical stress level. It is assumed that the rock is a strain-softening medium whose strength can be described by Weibull’s distribution. Based on the two-dimensional renormalization group theory, it is found that the stress level λ_c (the ratio of the stress at the critical point to the peak stress) depends mainly on the homogeneity index or shape parameter m in the Weibull’s distribution for the rock. Experimental results show that the evolution of permeability is closely related to rock deformation stages: the permeability has a rapid increase with the growth of cracks and their surface areas (i.e., onset of fracture coalescence point), and reaches the maximum at rock failure. Both the experimental and analytical results show that this point of rapid increase in permeability on the permeability-pressure curve corresponds to the critical point on the stress-strain curve; for rock compression, the stress at this point is approximately 80% of the peak strength. Thus, monitoring the evolution of permeability may provide a new means of identifying the critical point of rock brittle fracture.     

A theoretical derivation of the dilatancy equation for brittle rocks based on Maxwell model

In this paper, the micro-cracks in the brittle rocks are assumed to be penny shaped and evenly distributed; the damage and dilatancy of the brittle rocks is attributed to the growth and expansion of numerous micro-cracks under the local tensile stress. A single crack’s behaviour under the local tensile stress is generalized to all cracks based on the distributed damage mechanics. The relationship between the local tensile stress and the external loading is derived based on the Maxwell model. The damage factor corresponding to the external loading is represented using the p–alpha (p–α) model. A dilatancy equation that can build up a link between the external loading and the rock dilatancy is established. A test of dilatancy of a brittle rock under triaxial compression is conducted; the comparison between experimental results and our theoretical results shows good consistency.     

The <Emphasis Type="Italic">T</Emphasis>-matrix approach for the mathematical modeling of the effective elastic properties of hydrocarbon reservoirs

Various methods of the effective medium theory (EMT)—the T-matrix approach (optical potential approximation and coherent potential approximation), Mori–Tanaka method, generalized singular approximation, etc.—for modeling the effective elastic properties of hydrocarbon reservoir rocks are considered. The relationship of the different approaches (perturbation theory, self-consistent methods, and variational principles) is demonstrated. The classification of the methods by the degree of complexity of solving the inverse problem is suggested. An example of the theoretical modeling of an oil-, gas-, and water-saturated rock with the oriented axis of the fractures is presented. Conclusions about the applicability of different methods for rock modeling are made. In this study we review and compare different methods of the EMT and present the guidelines for determining the effective properties of the medium in rock physics modeling.     

Shape and position of Earth’s bow shock near-lunar orbit based on ARTEMIS data

Earth’s bow shock is the result of interaction between the supersonic solar wind and Earth’s magnetopause. However, data limitations mean the model of the shape and position of the bow shock are based largely on near-Earth satellite data. The model of the bow shock in the distant magnetotail and other factors that affect the bow shock, such as the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) B_y, remain unclear. Here, based on the bow shock crossings of ARTEMIS from January 2011 to January 2015, new coefficients of the tail-flaring angle α of the Chao model (one of the most accurate models currently available) were obtained by fitting data from the middle-distance magnetotail (near-lunar orbit, geocentric distance -20R_E>X>-50R_E). In addition, the effects of the IMF B_y on the flaring angle α were analyzed. Our results showed that: (1) the new fitting coefficients of the Chao model in the middle-distance magnetotail are more consistent with the observed results; (2) the tail-flaring angle α of the bow shock increases as the absolute value of the IMF B_y increases. Moreover, positive IMF B_y has a greater effect than negative IMF B_y on flaring angle. These results provide a reference for bow shock modeling that includes the IMF B_y.     

DHI evaluation by combining rock physics simulation and statistical techniques for fluid identification of Cambrian-to-Cretaceous clastic reservoirs in Pakistan

The use of seismic direct hydrocarbon indicators is very common in exploration and reservoir development to minimise exploration risk and to optimise the location of production wells. DHIs can be enhanced using AVO methods to calculate seismic attributes that approximate relative elastic properties. In this study, we analyse the sensitivity to pore fluid changes of a range of elastic properties by combining rock physics studies and statistical techniques and determine which provide the best basis for DHIs. Gassmann fluid substitution is applied to the well log data and various elastic properties are evaluated by measuring the degree of separation that they achieve between gas sands and wet sands. The method has been applied successfully to well log data from proven reservoirs in three different siliciclastic environments of Cambrian, Jurassic, and Cretaceous ages. We have quantified the sensitivity of various elastic properties such as acoustic and extended elastic (EEI) impedances, elastic moduli (K _sat and K _sat–μ), lambda–mu–rho method (λρ and μρ), P-to-S-wave velocity ratio (V _P/V _S), and Poisson’s ratio (σ) at fully gas/water saturation scenarios. The results are strongly dependent on the local geological settings and our modeling demonstrates that for Cambrian and Cretaceous reservoirs, K _sat–μ, EEI, V _P/V _S, and σ are more sensitive to pore fluids (gas/water). For the Jurassic reservoir, the sensitivity of all elastic and seismic properties to pore fluid reduces due to high overburden pressure and the resultant low porosity. Fluid indicators are evaluated using two metrics: a fluid indicator coefficient based on a Gaussian model and an overlap coefficient which makes no assumptions about a distribution model. This study will provide a potential way to identify gas sand zones in future exploration.     

Experience in registration of variations caused by strong earthquakes in the level and physicochemical parameters of ground waters in the piezometric wells: the case of Kamchatka

The hardware complex that was produced by OOO Polynom, Khabarovsk, for registration of the level, temperature, and electrical conductivity of ground water in wells and meteorological parameters (atmospheric pressure, air temperature) at a measurement frequency from 5 min to 1 h is described. The equipment is installed in the wells of Kamchatka and has been used for several years to register variations caused by earthquakes in the parameters of ground waters. Different variations in measured parameters of ground waters due to strong earthquakes of February 28, 2013, M _W = 6.8 and May 24, 2013, M _W = 8.3 are registered with this equipment in wells YuZ-5 and E-1. The registered variations and their systematization are described taking into account the mechanisms of a seismic impact on the state of the well–water-saturated rock system.     

The relation between solar activity and orientation of the solar wind electric field relative to the Earth’s magnetic moment

The relation of the Kp index of geomagnetic activity to the solar wind electric field (E _SW) and the projection of this field onto the geomagnetic dipole has been estimated. An analysis indicated that the southward component of the IMF vector (B _z < 0) is the main geoeffective parameter, as was repeatedly indicated by many researchers. The presence of this component in any combinations of the interplanetary medium parameters is responsible for a high correlation between such combinations and geomagnetic activity referred to by the authors of different studies. Precisely this field component also plays the main role in the relation between the Kp index and the relative orientation of E _SW and the Earth’ magnetic moment.     

Manifestations of cyclic variations in the solar magnetic field in long-term modulation of cosmic rays

The possibilities of improving the semiempirical model of cosmic ray (CR) modulation, proposed by us previously, are discussed. The following characteristics have been considered as model parameters in order to describe long-period CR variations using a unified model and to more completely reflect solar cycles in CR modulation as a complex interaction between two systems of fields (large-scale and local): the value and sign of the polar solar field, the average strength of the solar magnetic field (the B _ss integral index), partial indices (zone-even (ZE) and zone-odd (ZO) and sector-even (SE) and sector-odd (SO) indices), the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet, and the special index (F _x ) taking into account X ray flares. The role of each index in CR modulation has been revealed. When we described the long-term CR variations using many parameters and taking into account the integral index or one of four partial indices, the best results of modulation modeling during 1976–1999 were obtained for the B _ss total energetic index and SO index. A difference between the model calculations and observations increases beginning from the middle of 2000; the problem features of the CR behavior and the specific features of modeling this behavior in cycle 23 of solar activity (SA) are discussed. It is assumed that a decrease in the CR density at the last SA minimums (from cycle to cycle) can be related to a decrease in the ZO index and to a recently detected similar decrease in the vertical component of the solar dipole magnetic moment.     

Fractal analysis of experimentally generated pyroclasts: A tool for volcanic hazard assessment

Rapid decompression experiments on natural volcanic rocks mimick explosive eruptions. Fragment size distributions (FSD) of such experimentally generated pyroclasts are investigated using fractal geometry. The fractal dimension of fragmentation, D, of FSD is measured for samples from Unzen (Japan) and Popocatépetl (Mexico) volcanoes.Results show that: (i) FSD are fractal and can be quantified by measuring D values; (ii) D increases linearly with potential energy for fragmentation (PEF) and, thus, with increasing applied pressure; (iii) the rate of increase of D with PEF depends on open porosity: the higher the open porosity, the lower the increase of D with PEF; (iv) at comparable open porosity, samples display a similar behavior for any rock composition.The method proposed here has the potential to become a standard routine to estimate eruptive energy of past and recent eruptions using values of D and open porosity, providing an important step towards volcanic hazard assessment.     

Dynamics of the ionospheric electric currents and auroral luminosity boundaries during strong magnetic storms

The regularities in the southward drift of the ionospheric current centers and luminosity boundaries during strong magnetic storms of November 2003 and 2004 (with Dst ≈ ?400 and ?470 nT, respectively) are studied based on the global geomagnetic observations and TV measurements of auroras. It has been indicated that the eastward and westward electrojets in the dayside and nightside sectors simultaneously shift equatorward to minimal latitudes of Φ _min ^° ～53°–55°. It has been obtained that the Φ _min ^° latitude decreases with increasing negative values of Dst, IMF B _z component, and westward electric field strength in the solar wind. The dependence of the electrojet equatorward shift velocity (V _av) on the rate of IMF B _z variations (ΔB _z /Δt) has been determined. It is assumed that the electrojet dynamics along the meridian is caused by a change in the structure of the magnetosphere and electric fields in the solar wind and the Earth’s magnetosphere.     

Magnetic field variations in the umbra of single sunspots during their passage across the solar disk

Temporal variations of the maximum (B _max) and average (〈B〉) magnetic inductions, minimum (α _min) and average (〈α〉) inclination angles of the field lines to the radial direction from the center of the Sun, and areas of the sunspot umbra S in the umbra of single sunspots during their passage across the solar disk are investigated. The variation of the properties of single sunspots has been considered at different stages of their existence, i.e., during formation, the “quiet” period, and the disappearance stage. It has been found that, for the majority of the selected single sunspots, there is a positive correlation between B _max and S and between 〈B〉 and S defined at different times during the passage of sunspots across the solar disk. It is shown in this case that the nature of the dependence between the parameters α _min and B _max, α _min and S, as well as between 〈α〉 and 〈B〉, 〈α〉 and S, can vary from sunspot to sunspot, but for many sunspots the inclination angle of the field lines decreases on average with the growth of the sunspot umbra area and the field strength.     

Effect of the IMF azimuthal component on the longitudinal position of the westward electrojet intensity maximum during strong geomagnetic storms

The distribution of the ionospheric currents during the geomagnetic storms of November 20–21, 2003, November 7–8, 2004, and November 9–10, 2004, depending on the IMF B _y component, has been studied based on the data from the global network of magnetic stations. It has been indicated that, during geomagnetic disturbances, the westward electrojet intensity maximum is localized in the evening sector at IMF B _y < 0 and in the morning sector at IMF B _y > 0. The region of the westward electrojet intensity maximum shifts to morning hours with increasing positive B _y values. Thus, the IMF azimuthal component forms not only the magnetospheric convection pattern during magnetic storms but is also responsible for the longitudinal position of ionospheric structures.     

Statistical relations between the probability of occurrence of Pc3-4 pulsations at high latitudes in the antarctic regions and the solar wind and IMF parameters

Geomagnetic pulsation in the Pc3-4 bands have been studied at high Antarctic latitudes during the local summer. The statistical relation between the occurrence probability of Pc3 and Pc4 pulsations and the solar wind (SW) and IMF parameters has been revealed by verifying the hypothesis that an indication is identical in two distributions. Different dependences of the occurrence probability of high-latitude Pc3 and Pc4 pulsations on the IMF value and orientation and SW density and velocity have been found out. It has been indicated that these dependences remain unchanged in the range of geomagnetic latitudes from 66° to 87°. It has been established that the Pc3 observation probability at small (20°–50°) IMF cone angles (θ = cos^?1(B _x/|B|)) is a factor of 1.5 higher than the average statistical probability and depends on the IMF value, which confirms the hypothesis that the Pc3 source is the turbulent region upstream of the magnetospheric quasiparallel low shock. On the contrary, the probability of occurrence of Pc4 weakly depends on the IMF cone angle and is maximal at θ ～ 0° and ～90°. With increasing negative B _z values, the generation probability increases in the Pc4 band and tends to decrease in the Pc3 band. It has been found out for the first time that the dependence of the Pc4 occurrence probability on the IMF clock angle (? = tan^?2 (B/B _z) is identical in the regions of projections of closed and open field lines, whereas this dependence is different for Pc3. In the region of projections of closed field lines, the Pc3 occurrence probability increases at B _z < 0 and B _y > 0 (the condition under which the cusp shifts on the dawn side) and at B _y < 0 and B _z > 0 (which is typical of the formation of the low-latitude boundary plasma sheet). In the region of projections of open field lines such a probability increases at B _y < 0 and B _z < 0 (which results in the formation of the high-latitude boundary plasma sheet). Based on the discovered regularities, the conclusion has been made that the sources of generation of high-latitude Pc3 and Pc4 pulsations are different.     

Geomagnetically Induced Currents and Space Weather: Pi3 Pulsations and Extreme Values of Time Derivatives of the Geomagnetic Field’s Horizontal Components

The problem of estimating the time derivatives of the horizontal components of the geomagnetic field and forecasting the probability of the occurrence of perturbations that exceed a given threshold level (the over-threshold perturbations) arises in the applications concerned with the geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). In this work, we consider the temporal and spatial structure of the Pi3 pulsations with quasi-periods of 10² to 10³ s during which the auroral and subauroral stations of the IMAGE network record over-threshold values in the derivatives of the meridional (along the longitudinal circle) B_X component and latitudinal (along the latitudinal circle) B_Y component. The extreme |dB_X/dt| values mainly develop against the background of the Pi3 pulsations with a complex frequency content, whereas the extreme |dB_Y/dt| values appear when the buildup (decay) phases of the bay-like disturbance associated with the evolution of a substorm coincide with the respective phases of the field of pulsations. The conditions under which the derivatives |dB_X/dt| and |dB_Y/dt| reach their over-threshold values are studied for subauroral latitudes by the technique of superposed epoch analysis. The extreme values of the derivatives most frequently occur during the main phase of moderate magnetic storms or beyond the storm—during high substorm activity under the conditions of a negative vertical component of the interplanetary magnetic field. The probability of the occurrence of over-threshold values increases at high amplitudes of the Pi3 pulsations and depends on their spectral content. The problem of analyzing and forecasting the over-threshold |dB_Y/dt| perturbations is complicated by the fact that the scale of the perturbations is small along the lines of latitude and large along the meridians. This can result in GIC excitation in the North–South oriented electric power lines by the geomagnetic perturbations localized within a narrow band in longitude which can be missed during the measurements.     

Effect of zonal E × B plasma drift on electron density in the low-latitude ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis> region at a solar activity maximum near vernal equinox

The variations in the density of the ionospheric F2 layer maximum (NmF2) under the action of the zonal plasma drift perpendicularly to the magnetic (B) and electric (E) fields in the direction geomagnetic west-geomagnetic east have been studied using the three-dimensional nonstationary theoretical model of electron and ion densities (N _e and N _i ) and temperatures (T _e and T _i ) in the low-latitude and midlatitude ionospheric F region and plasmasphere. The method of numerical calculations of N _e , N _i , T _e , and T _i , including the advantages of the Lagrangian and Eulerian methods, is used in the model. A dipole approximation of the geomagnetic field (B), taking into account the non-coincidence of the geographic and geomagnetic poles and differences between the positions of the Earth’s and geomagnetic dipole centers, is accepted in the calculations. The calculated NmF2 and altitudes of the F2 layer maximum (hmF2) have been compared with these quantities measured at 16 low-latitude ionospheric sounding stations during the geomagnetically quiet period October 11–12, 1958. This comparison made it possible to correct the input model parameters: the NRLMSISE-00 model [O], the meridional component of the neutral wind velocity according to the HWW90 model, and the meridional component of the equatorial plasma drift due to the electric field specified by the empirical model. It has been indicated that the effect of the zonal E × B plasma drift on NmF2 can be neglected under daytime conditions and changes in NmF2 and hmF2 under the action of this drift are insignificant under nighttime conditions north of 25° and south of ?26° geomagnetic latitude. The effect of the zonal E × B plasma drift on NmF2 and hmF2 is most substantial in the nightside ionosphere approximately from ?20° to 20° geomagnetic latitude, and the neglect of this drift results in an up to 2.4-fold underestimation of NmF2. The found dependence of the effect of the zonal E × B plasma drift on NmF2 and hmF2 on geomagnetic latitude is related to the longitudinal asymmetry of B, asymmetry of the neutral wind about the geomagnetic equator, and changes in the meridional E × B plasma drift at a change in geomagnetic longitude.     

Estimation of storm-time level of day-side wave geomagnetic activity using a new <Emphasis Type="Italic">ULF</Emphasis> index

The level of wave geomagnetic activity in the morning and daytime sectors of auroral latitudes during strong magnetic storms with Dst _min varying from ?100 to ?150 nT in 1995–2002 have been studied using a new ULF index of wave activity proposed in [Kozyreva et al., 2007]. It has been detected that daytime Pc5 pulsations (2–6 mHz) are most intense during the main phase of a magnetic storm rather than during the recovery phase as was considered previously. It has been indicated that morning geomagnetic pulsations during the substorm recovery phase mainly contribute to daytime wave activity. The appearance of individual intervals with the southward IMF B _z component during the magnetic storm recovery phase results in increases in the ULF index values.     

Variations in the IMF vertical component in isolated solar wind streams

The regularities of the variations in the IMF B _z component have been studied based on the data on the solar wind streams and their solar sources. Isolated solar wind streams such as magnetic clouds and shock layers before them, undisturbed heliospheric current sheets (HCSs), leading edges and bodies of high-speed streams from coronal holes (HSSs from CHs) have been considered. It has been revealed that each type of isolated streams in the interplanetary medium has it own features in the variations in the value and direction of the B _z component related to the stream immanent properties and conditions of propagation in the interplanetary plasma. The appearance of the southward B _z component is obligatory for all these streams which are, therefore, geoeffective.     

Daytime quasiperiodic geomagnetic pulsations during the recovery phase of the strong magnetic storm of May 15, 2005

Intense quasimonchromatic geomagnetic pulsations with a period of ～15 min, observed on the Earth’s surface in the near-noon sector at the beginning of the recovery phase of a very strong (Dst _min = ?260 nT) magnetic storm of May 15, 2005, are analyzed. The variations were registered at auroral latitudes only in the X field component, and wave activity shifted into the postnoon sector of the polar cap an hour later; in this case pulsations were observed in the X and Y field components. Within the magnetosphere the source of magnetic pulsations could be the surface waves on the magnetopause caused by the pulse of the solar wind magnetic pressure. Geomagnetic pulsations in the polar cap, observed in phase at different latitudes, could apparently reflect quasiperiodic variations in the NBZ system of field-aligned currents. Such variations can originate due to the series of pulsed reconnections in the postnoon outer cusp at large (～20 nT) positive B _z values and large (about ?40 nT) negative values of IMF B _x .