基于SWAT模型的淮河上游流域设计洪水修订

变化环境下洪水序列的一致性遭到破坏,引发基于统计原理计算的设计洪水可靠性下降,亟需开展非一致性条件下的设计洪水修订研究.以淮河上游流域为研究区域,运用Pettitt检验法和滑动t检验法综合检测年最大洪峰流量序列突变点,在此基础上,采用SWAT分布式水文模型对变异前的洪峰与洪量序列进行还现,利用径流深的模拟结果修订设计洪水,并对修订后的洪水序列进行频率分析.结果表明:(1)淮河上游息县和淮滨站年最大洪峰流量呈现不显著的减小趋势,王家坝站则表现出不显著增加趋势,1991年为各站年最大洪峰流量序列的突变点;(2) 3个水文站率定期和验证期的确定性系数(R2)和Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数(NSE)均满足适用性要求,其中流域出口王家坝站率定期R2、NSE分别为0.77和0.79、验证期分别为0.72和0.74,模拟精度较高;(3)淮河上游流域洪水设计值较修订前略有减小,其中,洪峰流量减小幅度平均值在3.3%～6.1%之间,淮滨站的减小幅度最大;不同时段洪量的减小幅度平均值在1.4%～2.7%之间,整体修订幅度小于洪峰流量的修订幅度,并且洪量的时段越长,修订幅度越小;随着重现期的增大,各洪水指标的修订幅度逐渐减小.本研究对于变化环境下的淮河流域水利工程规划和防洪减灾具有重要意义.     

复杂环境下华南东江中上游流域筑坝导致的水文变异

采用可视化分析软件包XmdvTool来评价复杂环境下东江中上游流域(1952-2002)水文变异以克服常规RVA方法的限制,在分离了气候变化对水文变异影响后,结合RVA方法系统地研究了华南东江中上游流域由于筑坝等人类活动引起的河流水文变异时空演化规律.结果表明:(1)1952-2002间由筑坝导致的最显著的东江中上游流域水文变异是最小3d流量,低流量持续时间、1月平均流量和7月平均流量等3个IHA因子;(2)在河源和岭下两站水文变异9个IHA因子相关图中,1月和2月平均流量,1月平均流量和最小90d流量相关图中各存在一个较为明显的线性回归趋势,表明上述因子存在较明显的相关关系;(3)东江中上游综合水文变异强度由大至小分别为:河源、龙川和岭下.运用高维水文数据可视化分析技术结合RVA方法可有效用于天然河流水文变异时空变化研究,研究结果对于东江河流生态环境管理、生态恢复和水资源一体化管理具有重要意义,可为流域水文变异的理论与方法研究提供借鉴.     

经验方法研究下垫面变化对洪水的影响

1980s以来,人类活动对下垫面的影响加剧,研究下垫面变化对流域产汇流规律的影响具有重要意义.通过对海河流域中紫荆关、阜平两个流域分别用经验方法进行洪水模拟演算,并把洪水资料按照年代不同分时段,建立P+Pa～Rs相关关系图,分析流域下垫面变化对降雨径流相关关系的影响.建立产流量R与洪峰Qm之间的相关关系,通过统计比较不同年代的趋势线发现,在产流量相同情况下,1980s后的洪峰流量较1980s前有所减少,说明海河流域的调蓄作用有增强的趋势.同时建立流域下垫面条件改变后产流量与洪峰变化幅度的相关关系,发现流域产流量变化与洪峰变化呈正相关关系.     

利用HEC模型分析下垫面变化对洪水的影响——以伊河东湾流域为例

近些年,由于气候变化和人类活动的双重作用改变了流域下垫面的水文特性,探讨研究下垫面变化的水文响应过程具有重要的理论和现实意义.河南伊河洪水虽然量级不大,但发生几率较高,对水库运用和河道冲淤的影响较大.如果洪水变小,伊河下游的造床流量也相应减小,水库控制中常洪水的流量及所需的防洪库容可做相应调整,反之亦然.因此,为了科学...     

基于洪水行为特征指标的我国山洪类型辨识与模拟

受地形地貌和水文气象条件的影响,山洪过程呈现显著的时空分异性,准确识别和模拟代表性洪水过程类型对山洪灾害防治具有重要意义.以3个洪峰特性指标(洪峰模数、峰现时间和洪水时间尺度)和3个洪水动力学特性指标(涨洪速率、落洪速率和变差系数)刻画山洪行为过程,采用主成分分析、动态K均值聚类、相似性检验和流域水文模拟(HEC和新安江模型)相结合,识别和模拟了典型山洪类型及其行为特征指标,并以全国不同类型区8个流域177场次小时洪水事件进行实例应用.结果表明:所有洪水事件共划分为3种类型,即低强度流量、峰现早、形态尖瘦的洪水类型(类型1),低强度流量、峰现晚、形态矮胖的洪水类型(类型2)和高强度流量、峰现晚的洪水类型(类型3).山洪类型与流域森林覆盖率、流域面积、最大雨强出现时间、最大雨强、降雨量集中度等影响因子具有高度一致性. HEC和新安江模型模拟效果基本一致,对于类型1～3的洪水事件,径流深平均相对误差分别为23.25～27.98%、11.95～18.19%和8.30～18.25%,平均Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数分别为0.39～0.54、0.76～0.85和0.86～0.91;类型1～3的所有行为特征指标平均相对均方根误差(RMSEr)分别为0.37～0.69、0.37～0.41和0.18～0.25,平均相关系数(r)分别为0.52～0.68、0.78～0.85和0.88～0.94;类型2和3的洪水洪峰特性指标模拟效果最好, RMSEr和r分别为0.18～0.28和0.86～0.91;类型3的洪水动力学特性指标模拟效果最好, RMSEr和r分别为0.19～0.21和0.91～0.97.研究结果为流域洪水管理提供了详细的洪水信息支持,也从洪水行为过程的视角为中小流域暴雨洪水模拟提供新的思路.     

洞庭湖三口洪峰流量和水位变异特性分析

近几十年来,受荆江裁弯、葛洲坝工程运用、三峡水库拦蓄调度、洞庭湖治理以及长江上游水土保持措施等因素的综合影响,洞庭湖三口(松滋口、太平口和藕池口)的水文情势发生了显著变化,给湖区防洪、水资源、水生态、水环境等造成一系列影响.为了深入认识三口洪水发生的复杂变化,本文采用水文变异诊断系统和Zivot-Andrews结构突变单位根检验方法,对三口各水文站点的年最大洪峰流量和年最高洪峰水位序列进行变异诊断,并对其变异特性和变异原因进行分析.结果表明,各站点洪峰流量序列的变异具有较好的一致性;受分流能力变化和上游来流变化的影响,三口各站点的洪峰流量多呈现方向向下的趋势变异;受到洪道冲刷、流量减小、顶托减弱、洪道上下游落差增大的影响,三口各站点洪峰水位在2004年均发生方向向下的跳跃变异.     

城镇化下流域不透水面扩张对洪峰的影响——以南京秦淮河为例

长江下游秦淮河流域近年来由于城市化崛起导致不透水面迅速扩张,改变了流域水文过程,导致暴雨洪水灾害风险增大.本文以南京秦淮河流域为例,基于1988—2015年间下垫面和水文气象资料建立了流域水文模型,通过不透水面扩张情景分析,探讨了 1988—2015年间不透水面空间扩张及对流域洪水过程的影响.研究结果表明:(1)秦淮河全流域1988—2015年不透水率从3.92%增长到19.11%,且不同区域扩张速度有所差异;(2)2006—2015年不透水面情景下的洪峰流量平均涨幅大于城市化初期;受流域上下游位置和下垫面地形条件的影响,流域溧水河和句容河两河源处的不透水面变化对洪峰的影响较流域下游出口处更显著;(3)秦淮河流域及不同位置的不透水面扩张情景下,小洪水的洪峰响应均大于大洪水,且不透水面扩张发生在下游主干河流域时的大、小洪水洪峰涨幅差距略大于河源流域.     

太湖流域土地利用变化的水文响应模拟

以城市化快速发展的太湖流域为研究对象,采用1985、1995和2000年TM/ETM土地利用解译资料,应用区域尺度单元格网分布式水文模型,进行长序列水文模拟,定量评估太湖流域土地利用变化及其水文响应特征,为流域用地规划、水资源管理以及灾害防治提供决策参数.研究显示,自1985年到2000年,太湖流域城镇面积扩展了40.38%,增加量占太湖流域总面积的3.88%.在1980-2000年的雨情下,全流域土地利用变化导致产流量平均增加4.11%,约为7.56×108 m3,最高值为11.76%,约为10.0×108 m3.受土地利用变化空间差异影响,产流量增加具有较大区域差异,城镇快速扩展的苏锡常地区和浦东浦西地区,土地利用变化导致产流量平均增加为10.07%和7.03%,最高增量达20%-30%.     

流域土地利用/覆被变化的水文效应及洪水响应

干旱与洪涝灾害已成为全球关心的重大问题.土地利用/覆被变化影响雨水的截留、下渗、蒸发等水文要素及其产汇流过程,并进而影响流域出口断面的流量过程,加大流域洪涝灾害发生的频率和强度.深入研究土地利用/覆被变化对洪涝灾害的影响,对于社会经济可持续发展具重要意义.通过分析和总结已进行的有关流域土地利用/覆被变化的水文效应及洪水响应研究工作进展,讨论了其研究内容、方法及现有工作的不足之处.     

长江流域近50年降水变化及其对干流洪水的影响

根据我国长江流域气象观测站近42年的资料,分析了整个流域年和季节平均面雨量、暴雨日数和暴雨量的变化特征,以及降水对流域径流和洪水的影响.长江流域年和夏季平均面雨量存在明显的年际和年代变化特征,也表现出比较显著的趋势变化特点.大部分测站年平均面雨量呈增加趋势,夏季和冬季平均面雨量的增加趋势尤其明显;秋季平均面雨量呈显著下降趋势.同时,年和夏季暴雨日数和暴雨量也在较大范围内呈显著增加趋势.长江流域的降水对干流平均流量具有重要影响.1973年、1983年和1998年的洪水主要是由明显高于平均的流域面雨量引起的;长江下游平均流量变化趋势也同流域年平均面雨量、夏季平均面雨量变化趋势基本一致,特别是70年代末以来,下游平均流量和流域面雨量的上升趋势更加明显,并同时在1998年达到最高值.长江流域大的丰水年一般对应El Nino年或El Nino次年,表明E1 Nino对长江较大洪水可能具有一定影响.     

The impact of climate change and human activities on streamflow and sediment load in the Pearl River basin

This paper uses monthly streamflow, suspended sediment concentration, and meteorological data to examine the impact of human activity and climate change on streamflow and sediment load in the Pearl River basin from the 1950s to the 2000s. The influences of climate change and human activities on hydrological processes were quantitatively evaluated using the Mann–Kendall abrupt change test and power rating curves. The results showed that:(1) abrupt changes and turning points in streamflow occurred in 1963, 1983, and 1991 which were found to be consistent with global ENSO events and volcanic eruptions. However, abrupt changes in sediment load showed significant spatial differences across the Pearl River basin. For the Xijiang River, an abrupt change in sediment load occurred in 2002, and after 2007 the change becomes significant at the 95% confidence level. At Beijiang and Dongjiang, abrupt changes in sediment load occurred in 1998 and 1988, respectively.(2) The time series of sediment load data was divided into four periods according to abrupt changes. The contribution of climate change and human activities is different in the different rivers. For the Xijiang River, compared with the first period, climate change and human activities contributed 83% and 17%, respectively, to the increasing sediment load during the second period. In the third period, the variation of sediment load followed a decreasing trend. The contribution from climate change and human activities also changed to t236% and -136%, respectively. In the fourth period, climate change and human activities contributed -32% and t132%, respectively. Meanwhile, For the Beijiang River, climate change and human activities contributed 90% and 10% in the second period, the contribution of climate change increased to t115% and human activities decreased to -15% in the third period. In the fourth period, the value for climate change decreased to t36% and human activities increased to t64%. For the Dongjiang River, the contribution of human activities was from 74.5% to 90%, and the values for climate change were from 11% to 25%. Therefore, the effect of human activity showed both spatial and temporal differences, and it seems likely that the decreased sediment load will continue to be controlled mainly by human activities in the future.     

Flood frequency under the influence of trends in the Pearl River basin,China: changing patterns,causes and implications

Using a nonstationary flood frequency model, this study investigates the impact of trends on the estimation of flood frequencies and flood magnification factors. Analysis of annual peak streamflow data from 28 hydrological stations across the Pearl River basin, China, shows that: (1) northeast parts of the West and the North River basins are dominated by increasing annual peak streamflow, whereas decreasing trends of annual peak streamflow are prevailing in other regions of the Pearl River basin; (2) trends significantly impact the estimation of flood frequencies. The changing frequency of the same flood magnitude is related to the changing magnitude or significance/insignificance of trends, larger increasing frequency can be detected for stations with significant increasing trends of annual peak streamflow and vice versa, and smaller increasing magnitude for stations with not significant increasing annual peak streamflow, pointing to the critical impact of trends on estimation of flood frequencies; (3) larger‐than‐1 flood magnification factors are observed mainly in the northeast parts of the West River basin and in the North River basin, implying magnifying flood processes in these regions and a higher flood risk in comparison with design flood‐control standards; and (4) changes in hydrological extremes result from the integrated influence of human activities and climate change. Generally, magnifying flood regimes in the northeast Pearl River basin and in the North River basin are mainly the result of intensifying precipitation regime; smaller‐than‐1 flood magnification factors along the mainstream of the West River basin and also in the East River basin are the result of hydrological regulations of water reservoirs. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) and tetrabromobisphenol A (TBBPA) in riverine and estuarine sediments of the Pearl River Delta in southern China, with emphasis on spatial variability in diastereoisomer- and enantiomer-specific distribution of HBCD

Hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) and tetrabromobisphenol A (TBBPA) were measured in surface sediments in the Pearl River Delta, southern China. The concentrations ranged from 0.06 to 304 ng/g dry weight for TBBPA and from 0.03 to 31.6 ng/g for total HBCD. The correlations between the TBBPA and HBCD concentrations were significant in rivers (Dongjiang, Zhujiang, Beijiang, and Dayanhe Rivers) with local input sources but not significant in the Xijiang River and Pearl River Estuary without local sources. HBCD was dominated by γ-HBCD (averaged 52.5-75.0%), whereas α-HBCD contributions were relatively high in sediments from the urban areas. The enantiomeric fractions of γ-HBCD in the sediments (averaged from 0.431 ± 0.035 to 0.479 ± 0.010) differed significantly from that in HBCD technical product except for samples from the e-waste area (Dayanhe River, 0.488 ± 0.091). This suggests that enantioselective biotransformation of HBCD occurs in the aquatic environment in this region.     

城市化背景下年最大日径流演变及影响因素研究——以长江下游秦淮河流域为例

随着气候变化和人类活动的加剧,城市化地区水文过程受到较大影响,极端水文事件发生频率显著加大,探究城市化地区洪水演变和驱动机理对于防洪减灾具有重大意义。本文以长江下游快速城市化地区的秦淮河流域为例,分析了1987—2018年期间该流域年最大日径流的演变特征,构建多元线性回归模型和广义可加GAMLSS模型识别了关键驱动因子并量化其贡献作用。结果表明:(1)城市化背景下秦淮河流域年最大日径流呈现显著上升趋势,平均增长速率为14.77 m³/(s·a),并于2001年发生显著突变。(2)汛期降水量和不透水面率是年最大日径流变化的关键驱动因素,最优模型显示前者贡献率超过了70%,表明了降水改变的决定性作用,而不透水面率贡献率超过20%则表明了下垫面的改变对年最大日径流演变存在显著影响。(3)不透水面的增加对年最大日径流和汛期降水量响应关系的影响程度从突变前的6.7%增加到突变后的10.4%,快速城市化已显著改变了流域降水-径流响应过程。研究表明,随着城市发展秦淮河流域的年最大日径流受到人类活动显著影响,洪涝威胁日趋增大,研究结果可为城市化地区防洪减灾提供一定参考。     

Human-induced regulations of river channels and implications for hydrological alterations in the Pearl River Delta, China

Sound understanding of hydrological alterations and the underlying causes means too much for the water resource management in the Pearl River Delta. Incision of river channels plays the key role in the hydrological alterations. As for the causes behind the river channel incision, sand dredging within the river network of the Pearl River Delta is usually assumed to play the overwhelming role in changes of geometric shapes of the river channels. Based on thorough analysis of well-collected data of channel geometry, streamflow, sediment load and water level, this study exposes new findings, investigating possible underlying causes behind the changes of the geometric shapes of the river channels at the Sanshui and Makou station. The results of this study indicate: (1) different changing properties of the geometric shapes are identified at the Sanshui and Makou stations. Larger magnitude of changes can be found in the river channel geometry of the cross section at the Sanshui station when compared to that at the Makou station. Lower water level due to fast riverbed downcutting at the Sanshui station than that at the Makou station is the major reason why the reallocation of streamflow occurred and hence the hydrological alterations over the Pearl River Delta; (2) depletion of sediment load as a result of construction of water reservoirs in the middle and upper Pearl River basin, sand dredging mainly in the Pearl River Delta and heavy floods all contribute much to the incision or deposition of the riverbed. Regulations of erosion and siltation process of the river channel often alleviate the incision of the river channels after a relatively long time span, and which makes it even harder to differentiate the factors causing the river channel incision; (3) the intensifying urbanization in the lower Pearl River basin greatly alters the underlying surface properties, which has the potential to shorten the recession of the flood event and may cause serious scouring processes and this role of flash floods in the incision of the river channels can not be ignored. This study is of great scientific and practical merits in improving human understanding of regulations of river channels and associated consequences with respect to hydrological alterations and water resource management, particularly in the economically booming region of China.     

Reservoir-induced hydrological alterations and environmental flow variation in the East River,the Pearl River basin,China

The East River basin is the major source of water supply for megacities in the Pearl River Delta and Hong Kong. Intensifying development of water resources and reservoir-induced hydrological alterations negatively affect ecological hydrological requirements. In this study, hydrological alterations and environmental flow variation are determined. Results indicate that: (1) multi-day maxima have reduced, while multi-day minima have increased, due to hydrological regulations of water reservoirs; (2) hydrological regimes of the East River have also been severely affected by hydropower generation, leading to a greater frequency of high and low pulses of lesser duration, and these effects are increasingly evident from the upper to lower East River basin; (3) owning to the water being released rapidly for hydropower generation or flood protection, the number of hydrologic reversals have increased after reservoir operations, also with increasing rise and fall rate; and (4) the alteration of three different types of environmental flow components have been shown in the study, which can be used to support the determination of environmental flow requirements in the East River basin.     

Abrupt changes in the discharge and sediment load of the Pearl River,China

The abrupt changes in the streamflow and sediment load at nine hydrological stations of the Pearl River basin were systematically analysed by using the simple two‐phase linear regression scheme and the coherency analysis technique. Possible underlying causes were also discussed. Our study results indicated that abrupt changes in the streamflow occurred mainly in the early 1990s. The change points were followed by significant decreasing streamflow. Multiscale abrupt behaviour of the sediment load classified the hydrological stations into two groups: (1) Xiaolongtan, Nanning and Liuzhou; and (2) Qianjiang, Dahuangjiangkou, Wuzhou, Gaoyao, Shijiao and Boluo. The grouped categories implied obvious influences of water reservoirs on the hydrological processes of the Pearl River. On the basis of analysis of the locations and the construction time of the water reservoirs, and also the time when the change points occurred, we figured out different ways the water reservoirs impacted the hydrological processes within the Pearl River basin. As for the hydrological variation along the mainstream of the Pearl River, the water reservoirs have considerable influences on both the streamflow and sediment load variations; however, more influences seemed to be exerted on the sediment load transport. In the North River, the hydrological processes seemed to be influenced mainly by climate changes. In the East River, the hydrological variations tended to be impacted by the water reservoirs. The study results also indicated no fixed modes when we address the influences of water reservoirs on hydrological processes. Drainage area and regulation behaviour of the water reservoirs should be taken into account. The results of this study will be of considerable importance for the effective water resources management of the Pearl River basin under the changing environment. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nonstationarity-based evaluation of flood risk in the Pearl River basin: changing patterns,causes and implications

Nonstationary GEV-CDN models considering time as a covariate are built for evaluating the flood risk and failure risk of the major flood-control infrastructure in the Pearl River basin, China. The results indicate: (1) increasing peak flood flow is observed in the mainstream of the West River and North River basins and decreasing peak flood flow is observed in the East River basin; in particular, increasing peak flood flow is detected in the mainstream of the lower Pearl River basin and also in the Pearl River Delta region, the most densely populated region of the Pearl River basin; (2) differences in return periods analysed under stationarity and nonstationarity assumptions are found mainly for floods with return periods longer than 50 years; and (3) the failure risks of flood-control infrastructure based on failure risk analysis are higher under the nonstationarity assumption than under the stationarity assumption. The flood-control infrastructure is at higher risk of flood and failure under the influence of climate change and human activities in the middle and lower parts of Pearl River basin.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR G. Thirel     

变化环境下近60年西江流域径流时空演变特征

气候变化叠加人类活动的双重影响下,西江流域的河川径流发生了不同程度的改变,重新认识和掌握变化环境下的径流时空演变规律对流域的科学管理具有重要意义。基于西江流域干支流7个控制性水文站近60年的日径流资料,综合极点对称模态分解法(ESMD)、Mann-Kendall检验、R/S分析、小波分析等方法,从年代、年、季和年内多个时间尺度对径流的时空演变特征进行分析,研究结果表明:年代尺度下,西江流域径流丰枯交替、变化悬殊,1970s与1990s径流丰沛,2010s径流偏枯,降雨影响着径流的丰枯变化,流域上、中游更易发生干旱与洪涝灾害;春、夏、秋、冬季径流振荡周期依次为2～7、15～20、28～29 a,3～5、7～10、20 a,2～3、6～8、12～15 a和3～8、12～15、20 a,均呈现年际与年代的双重周期特征,IMF1的年际振荡在径流变化中占主导地位;受降雨与水库调蓄作用的影响,年、夏、秋季径流呈下降趋势,预测下降变化具有持续性,春、冬季径流整体呈上升趋势。空间内上游的变化趋势更显著;年和季尺度径流在1980年后突变增多,尤其集中于2000—2010年间,人类活动与气候变化是造成西江...