Estimation of daily stream water temperatures with a Bayesian regression approach

Stream water temperature plays a significant role in aquatic ecosystems where it controls many important biological and physical processes. Reliable estimates of water temperature at the daily time step are critical in managing water resources. We developed a parsimonious piecewise Bayesian model for estimating daily stream water temperatures that account for temporal autocorrelation and both linear and nonlinear relationships with air temperature and discharge. The model was tested at 8 climatically different basins of the USA and at 34 sites within the mountainous Boise River Basin (Idaho, USA). The results show that the proposed model is robust with an average root mean square error of 1.25 °C and Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.92 over a 2‐year period. Our approach can be used to predict historic daily stream water temperatures in any location using observed daily stream temperature and regional air temperature data.     

Stream and bed temperature variability in a coastal headwater catchment: influences of surface‐subsurface interactions and partial‐retention forest harvesting

Stream temperature was recorded between 2002 and 2005 at four sites in a coastal headwater catchment in British Columbia, Canada. Shallow groundwater temperatures, along with bed temperature profiles at depths of 1 to 30 cm, were recorded at 10‐min intervals in two hydrologically distinct reaches beginning in 2003 or 2004, depending on the site. The lower reach had smaller discharge contributions via lateral inflow from the hillslopes and fewer areas with upwelling (UW) and/or neutral flow across the stream bed compared to the middle reach. Bed temperatures were greater than those of shallow groundwater during summer, with higher temperatures in areas of downwelling (DW) flow compared to areas of neutral and UW flow. A paired‐catchment analysis revealed that partial‐retention forest harvesting in autumn 2004 resulted in higher daily maximum stream and bed temperatures but smaller changes in daily minima. Changes in daily maximum stream temperature, averaged over July and August of the post‐harvest year, ranged from 1.6 to 3 °C at different locations within the cut block. Post‐harvest changes in bed temperature in the lower reach were smaller than the changes in stream temperature, greater at sites with DW flow, and decreased with depth at both UW and DW sites, dropping to about 1 °C at a depth of 30 cm. In the middle reach, changes in daily maximum bed temperature, averaged over July and August, were generally about 1 °C and did not vary significantly with depth. The pre‐harvest regression models for shallow groundwater were not suitable for applying the paired‐catchment analysis to estimate the effects of harvesting. However, shallow groundwater was warmer at the lower reach following harvesting, despite generally cooler weather compared to the pre‐harvest year. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A spatially distributed model for the assessment of land use impacts on stream temperature in small urban watersheds

Stream temperatures in urban watersheds are influenced to a high degree by changes in landscape and climate, which can occur at small temporal and spatial scales. Here, we describe a modelling system that integrates the distributed hydrologic soil vegetation model with the semi‐Lagrangian stream temperature model RBM. It has the capability to simulate spatially distributed hydrology and water temperature over the entire network at high time and space resolutions, as well as to represent riparian shading effects on stream temperatures. We demonstrate the modelling system through application to the Mercer Creek watershed, a small urban catchment near Bellevue, Washington. The results suggest that the model was able to produce realistic streamflow and water temperature predictions that are consistent with observations. We use the modelling construct to characterize impacts of land use change and near‐stream vegetation change on stream temperatures and explore the sensitivity of stream temperature to changes in land use and riparian vegetation. The results suggest that, notwithstanding general warming as a result of climate change over the last century, there have been concurrent increases in low flows as a result of urbanization and deforestation, which more or less offset the effects of a warmer climate on stream temperatures. On the other hand, loss of riparian vegetation plays a more important role in modulating water temperatures, in particular, on annual maximum temperature (around 4 °C), which could be mostly reversed by restoring riparian vegetation in a fairly narrow corridor – a finding that has important implications for management of the riparian corridor. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Temperature in lowland Danish streams: contemporary patterns,empirical models and future scenarios

Continuous temperature measurements at 11 stream sites in small lowland streams of North Zealand, Denmark over a year showed much higher summer temperatures and lower winter temperatures along the course of the stream with artificial lakes than in the stream without lakes. The influence of lakes was even more prominent in the comparisons of colder lake inlets and warmer outlets and led to the decline of cold‐water and oxygen‐demanding brown trout. Seasonal and daily temperature variations were, as anticipated, dampened by forest cover, groundwater input, input from sewage plants and high downstream discharges. Seasonal variations in daily water temperature could be predicted with high accuracy at all sites by a linear air‐water regression model (r²: 0·903–0·947). The predictions improved in all instances (r²: 0·927–0·964) by a non‐linear logistic regression according to which water temperatures do not fall below freezing and they increase less steeply than air temperatures at high temperatures because of enhanced heat loss from the stream by evaporation and back radiation. The predictions improved slightly (r²: 0·933–0·969) by a multiple regression model which, in addition to air temperature as the main predictor, included solar radiation at un‐shaded sites, relative humidity, precipitation and discharge. Application of the non‐linear logistic model for a warming scenario of 4–5 °C higher air temperatures in Denmark in 2070‐2100 yielded predictions of temperatures rising 1·6–3·0 °C during winter and summer and 4·4–6·0 °C during spring in un‐shaded streams with low groundwater input. Groundwater‐fed springs are expected to follow the increase of mean air temperatures for the region. Great caution should be exercised in these temperature projections because global and regional climate scenarios remain open to discussion. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Thermal regime of a headwater stream within a clear‐cut,coastal British Columbia,Canada

This study examined the thermal regime of a headwater stream within a clear‐cut. The stream had a complex morphology dominated by step–pool features, many formed by sediment accumulation upstream of woody debris. Maximum daily temperatures increased up to 5 °C after logging, and were positively associated with maximum daily air temperature and negatively with discharge. Maximum daily temperatures generally increased with downstream distance through the cut block, but decreased with distance in two segments over distances of tens of metres, where the topography indicated relatively concentrated lateral inflow. Localized cool areas within a step–pool unit were associated with zones of concentrated upwelling. Bed temperatures tended to be higher and have greater ranges in areas of downwelling flow into the bed. Heat budget estimates were made using meteorological measurements over the water surface and a model of net radiation using canopy characteristics derived from fisheye photography. Heat exchange driven by hyporheic flow through the channel step was a cooling effect during daytime, with a magnitude up to approximately 25% that of net radiation during the period of maximum daytime warming. Heat budget calculations in these headwater streams are complicated by the heterogeneity of incident solar radiation and channel geometry, as well as uncertainty in estimating heat and water exchanges between the stream and the subsurface via hyporheic exchange and heat conduction. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Examining the effect of geomorphic characteristics on pool temperatures for native fish habitat management in mountainous stream networks

Stream temperature is a critical habitat parameter for cold‐water fish, many species of which now exist in geographically fragmented populations within the western United States. To assist managers in identifying thermally suitable fish habitat, we used data from 31 pools on streams of the White River National Forest in Colorado, USA to create multiple regression models to predict summer pool temperature metrics related to lethal and sublethal thermal tolerances of fish. We modeled the 7‐day mean of daily maximum pool temperature for the warmest 7 days and the mean temperature of the warmest month, using air temperature and several geomorphic parameters. The strongest predictor variables of these temperature metrics were drainage area, discharge, and residual pool volume. Most previous studies found air temperature to be the strongest predictor variable for pool temperature, but for the mountain streams in this study, variables related to stream flow volume and stream morphology had better predictive power. The models, created from and tested against field data, were able to explain 66% and 51% of the variability in monthly mean and 7‐day mean pool temperatures, respectively, and had prediction errors of less than 2°C. The reach‐scale approach developed here, which includes geomorphically relevant predictors of pool temperature, should be applicable to other mountainous river networks. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A multicatchment analysis of headwater and downstream temperature effects from contemporary forest harvesting

Stream temperature is a key physical water‐quality parameter, controlling many biological, chemical, and physical processes in aquatic ecosystems. Maintenance of cool stream temperatures during summer is critical for high‐quality aquatic habitat. As such, transmission of warm water from small, nonfish‐bearing headwater streams after forest harvesting could cause warming in downstream fish‐bearing stream reaches with negative consequences. In this study, we evaluate (a) the effects of contemporary forest management practices on stream temperature in small, headwater streams, (b) the transmission of thermal signals from headwater reaches after harvesting to downstream fish‐bearing reaches, and (c) the relative role of lithology and forest management practices in influencing differential thermal responses in both the headwater and downstream reaches. We measured summer stream temperatures both preharvest and postharvest at 29 sites—12 upstream sites (4 reference, 8 harvested) and 17 downstream sites (5 reference, 12 harvested)—across 3 paired watershed studies in western Oregon. The 7‐day moving average of daily maximum stream temperature (T_7DAYMAX) was greater during the postharvest period relative to the preharvest period at 7 of the 8 harvested upstream sites. Although the T_7DAYMAX was generally warmer in the downstream direction at most of the stream reaches during both the preharvest and postharvest period, there was no evidence for additional downstream warming related to the harvesting activity. Rather, the T_7DAYMAX cooled rapidly as stream water flowed into forested reaches ~370–1,420 m downstream of harvested areas. Finally, the magnitude of effects of contemporary forest management practices on stream temperature increased with the proportion of catchment underlain by more resistant lithology at both the headwater and downstream sites, reducing the potential for the cooling influence of groundwater.     

Landscape influence on small‐scale water temperature variations in a moorland catchment

We monitored temperatures in stream water, groundwater and riparian wetland surface water over 18 months in a 3.2‐km² moorland catchment in the Scottish Highlands. The stream occupies a glaciated valley, aligned east–west. It has three main headwater tributaries with a large north facing catchment, a south facing catchment and the smallest east facing headwater. The lower catchment sampling locations begin after the convalescence of all three headwaters. Much of the stream network is fringed by riparian peatlands. Stream temperatures are mainly regulated by energy exchanges at the air–water interface. However, they are also influenced by inflows from the saturated riparian zone, where surface water source areas are strongly connected with the stream network. Consequently, the spatial distribution of stream temperatures exhibits limited variability. Nevertheless, there are significant summer differences between the headwaters, despite their close proximity to each other. This is consistent with aspect (and incident radiation), given the south and east facing headwaters having higher temperatures. The largest, north‐facing sub‐catchment shows lower summer diurnal temperature variability, suggesting that lower radiation inputs dampen temperature extremes. Whilst stream water temperature regimes in the lower catchment exhibit little change along a 1‐km reach, they are similar to those in the largest headwater; probably reflecting size and comparable catchment aspect and hydrological flow paths. Our results suggest that different parts of the channel network and its connected wetlands have contrasting sensitivity to higher summer temperatures. This may be important in land management strategies designed to mitigate the impacts of projected climatic warming. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Urban stream temperature patterns: Spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the Philadelphia region,Pennsylvania, USA

Stream temperature is a critical water quality parameter that is not fully understood, particularly in urban areas. This study explores drivers contributing to stream temperature variability within an urban system, at 21 sites within the Philadelphia region, Pennsylvania, USA. A comprehensive set of temperature metrics were evaluated, including temperature sensitivity, daily maximum temperatures, time >20°C, and temperature surges during storms. Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) were the strongest driver of downstream temperature variability along 32 km in Wissahickon Creek. WWTP effluent temperature controlled local (1–3 km downstream) temperatures year-round, but the impacts varied seasonally: during winter, local warming of 2–7°C was consistently observed, while local cooling up to 1°C occurred during summer. Summer cooling and winter warming were detected up to 12 km downstream of a WWTP. Comparing effects from different WWTPs provided guidelines for mitigating their thermal impact; WWTPs that discharged into larger streams, had cooler effluent, or had lower discharge had less effect on stream temperatures. Comparing thermal regimes in four urban headwater streams, sites with more local riparian canopy had cooler maximum temperatures by up to 1.5°C, had lower temperature sensitivity, and spent less time at high temperatures, although mean temperatures were unaffected. Watershed-scale impervious area was associated with increased surge frequency and magnitude at headwater sites, but most storms did not result in a surge and most surges had a low magnitude. These results suggest that maintaining or restoring riparian canopy in urban settings will have a larger impact on stream temperatures than stormwater management that treats impervious area. Mitigation efforts may be most impactful at urban headwater sites, which are particularly vulnerable to stream temperature disruptions. It is vital that stream temperature impacts are considered when planning stormwater management or stream restoration projects, and the appropriate metrics need to be considered when assessing impacts.     

Base flow‐driven shifts in tropical stream temperature regimes across a mean annual rainfall gradient

Climate change is expected to affect air temperature and watershed hydrology, but the degree to which these concurrent changes affect stream temperature is not well documented in the tropics. How stream temperature varies over time under changing hydrologic conditions is difficult to isolate from seasonal changes in air temperature. Groundwater and bank storage contributions to stream flow (i.e., base flow [BF]) buffer water temperatures against seasonal and daily fluctuations in solar radiation and air temperature, whereas rainfall‐driven runoff produces flooding events that also influence stream temperature. We used a space‐for‐time substitution to examine how shifts in BF and runoff alter thermal regimes in streams by analyzing hydrological and temperature data collected from similar elevations (400–510 m above sea level) across a 3,500‐mm mean annual rainfall gradient on Hawai'i Island. Sub‐daily water temperature and stream flow gathered for 3 years were analyzed for daily, monthly, and seasonal trends and compared with air temperature measured at multiple elevations. Results indicate that decreases in median BF increased mean, maximum, and minimum water temperatures as well as daily temperature range. Monthly and daily trends in stream temperature among watersheds were more pronounced than air temperature, driven by differences in groundwater inputs and runoff. Stream temperature was strongly negatively correlated to BF during the dry season but not during the wet season due to frequent wet season runoff events contributing to total flow. In addition to projected increases in global air temperature, climate driven shifts in rainfall and runoff are likely to affect stream flow and groundwater recharge, with concurrent influences on BF resulting in shifts in water temperature that are likely to affect aquatic ecosystems.     

Influence of a rock glacier spring on the stream energy budget and cold‐water refuge in an alpine stream

The thermal regimes of alpine streams remain understudied and have important implications for cold‐water fish habitat, which is expected to decline due to climatic warming. Previous research has focused on the effects of distributed energy fluxes and meltwater from snowpacks and glaciers on the temperature of mountain streams. This study presents the effects of the groundwater spring discharge from an inactive rock glacier containing little ground ice on the temperature of an alpine stream. Rock glaciers are coarse blocky landforms that are ubiquitous in alpine environments and typically exhibit low groundwater discharge temperatures and resilience to climatic warming. Water temperature data indicate that the rock glacier spring cools the stream by an average of 3 °C during July and August and reduces maximum daily temperatures by an average of 5 °C during the peak temperature period of the first two weeks in August, producing a cold‐water refuge downstream of the spring. The distributed stream surface and streambed energy fluxes are calculated for the reach along the toe of the rock glacier, and solar radiation dominates the distributed stream energy budget. The lateral advective heat flux generated by the rock glacier spring is compared to the distributed energy fluxes over the study reach, and the spring advective heat flux is the dominant control on stream temperature at the reach scale. This study highlights the potential for coarse blocky landforms to generate climatically resilient cold‐water refuges in alpine streams.     

Characterization of contrasting flow and thermal regimes in two adjacent subarctic alpine headwaters in Northwest Canada

Alpine headwaters in subarctic regions are particularly sensitive to climate change, yet there is little information on stream thermal regimes in these areas and how they might respond to global warming. In this paper, we characterize and compare the hydrological and thermal regimes of two subarctic headwater alpine streams within an empirical framework. The streams investigated are located within two adjacent catchments with similar geology, size, elevation and landscape, Granger Creek (GC) and Buckbrush Creek (BB), which are part of the Wolf Creek Research Basin in the Yukon Territory, Canada. Hydrometeorological and high-resolution stream temperature data were collected throughout summer 2016. Both sites exhibited a flow regime typical of cold alpine headwater catchments influenced by frozen ground and permafrost. Comparatively, GC was characterized by a flashier response with more extreme flows, than BB. In both sites, stream temperature was highly variable and very responsive to short-term changes in climatic conditions. On average, stream temperature in BB was slightly higher than in GC (respectively 5.8 and 5.7°C), but less variable (average difference between 75th and 25th quantiles of 1.6 and 2.0°C). Regression analysis between mean daily air and stream temperature suggested that a greater relative (to stream flow) groundwater contribution in BB could more effectively buffer atmospheric fluctuations. Heat fluxes were derived and utilized to assess their relative contribution to the energy balance. Overall, non-advective fluxes followed a daily pattern highly correlated to short-wave radiation. G1enerally, solar radiation and latent heat were respectively the most important heat source and sink, while air–water interface processes were major factors driving nighttime stream temperature fluctuations.     

Stream temperature response to climate change and water diversion activities

Stream temperature is an important control of many in-stream processes. There is rising concern about increases in stream temperature with projected climate changes and human-related water activities. Here, we investigate the responses to climate change and water diversions in Eel River basin. The increase in stream temperatures is considered to be the result of changes in air temperature, the proportion of base flow and the amount of stream flow derived from historical and future simulations using the integrated VIC hydrologic model and ANN stream temperature model. The results show that stream temperature will increase throughout the basin in the future under two climate change representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) and will also be influenced by the water diversion activities schedules. Specifically, the stream temperature increases, in the late twenty-first century under RCP8.5 scenarios, from 1.20 to 2.40 °C in summer and from 0.58–3.46 °C in winter respectively; Water diversion activities in Eel River Basin can increase nearly 1 °C in stream temperature. Therefore, both climate change and water diversion activities can substantially cause the rise of more than 2 °C in stream temperature. In conclusion, stream temperature is mainly sensitive to the proportion of base flow in summer, but also the change of the amount of stream flow in winter in our case study area. In addition, it should be noted that the low intensity irrigation schedule has lower impacts on increasing stream temperature, whereas the high intensity irrigation schedule will further exacerbate the rise of stream temperature. Understanding the different impacts of climate change scenarios and irrigation schedules on stream temperature can help identify climate-sensitive regions, climate-sensitive seasons and water diversion schedules as well as assist in planning for climate change and social adaptive management.     

Longer-term water temperature behaviour in an upland stream

Water temperature behaviour in a small upland Exmoor catchment (the Black Ball Stream) has been studied over a 14-year period since January 1976. Results from continuous records revealed annual mean stream temperatures to have a coefficient of variation of less than 5 per cent, and values of 5,10 and 15°C to be equalled or exceeded 90,41.8 and 4 per cent of the time respectively. The annual regime of water temperature was relatively predictable but diel cycles of varying magnitude were superimposed on the seasonal march. A clear seasonal hysteresis was evident whereby diel range in spring exceeded that in autumn by typically more than 2°C. Trend analysis of monthly temperature time series highlighted the stability of the thermal regime in recent years, although investigation of air-water temperature relationships indicated that an increase in mean surface air temperature projected for southwest England by the Year 2050 would result in a rise of mean winter and summer stream temperatures by 1.6 and 1.3°C respectively. Analysis of streamflow effects on water temperature suggested that future indirect impacts of climatic change on thermal regime via changes in stream discharge are likely to be minor.     

Predicting river water temperatures using stochastic models: case study of the Moisie River (Québec,Canada)

Successful applications of stochastic models for simulating and predicting daily stream temperature have been reported in the literature. These stochastic models have been generally tested on small rivers and have used only air temperature as an exogenous variable. This study investigates the stochastic modelling of daily mean stream water temperatures on the Moisie River, a relatively large unregulated river located in Québec, Canada. The objective of the study is to compare different stochastic approaches previously used on small streams to relate mean daily water temperatures to air temperatures and streamflow indices. Various stochastic approaches are used to model the water temperature residuals, representing short‐term variations, which were obtained by subtracting the seasonal components from water temperature time‐series. The first three models, a multiple regression, a second‐order autoregressive model, and a Box and Jenkins model, used only lagged air temperature residuals as exogenous variables. The root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) for these models varied between 0·53 and 1·70 °C and the second‐order autoregressive model provided the best results. A statistical methodology using best subsets regression is proposed to model the combined effect of discharge and air temperature on stream temperatures. Various streamflow indices were considered as additional independent variables, and models with different number of variables were tested. The results indicated that the best model included relative change in flow as the most important streamflow index. The RMSE for this model was of the order of 0·51 °C, which shows a small improvement over the first three models that did not include streamflow indices. The ridge regression was applied to this model to alleviate the potential statistical inadequacies associated with multicollinearity. The amplitude and sign of the ridge regression coefficients seem to be more in agreement with prior expectations (e.g. positive correlation between water temperature residuals of different lags) and make more physical sense. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stream temperature response to variable glacier coverage in coastal watersheds of Southeast Alaska

We measured stream temperature continuously during the 2011 summer run‐off season (May through October) in nine watersheds of Southeast Alaska that provide spawning habitat for Pacific salmon. The nine watersheds have glacier coverage ranging from 0% to 63%. Our goal was to determine how air temperature and watershed land cover, particularly glacier coverage, influence stream temperature across the seasonal glacial meltwater hydrograph. Multiple linear regression models identified mean watershed elevation (related to glacier extent) and watershed lake coverage (%) as the strongest landscape controls on mean monthly stream temperature, with the weakest (May) and strongest (July) models explaining 86% and 97% of the temperature variability, respectively. Mean weekly stream temperature was significantly correlated with mean weekly air temperature in seven streams; however, the relationships were weak to non‐significant in the streams influenced by glacial run‐off. Streams with >30% glacier coverage showed decreasing stream temperatures with rising summer air temperatures, whereas those with <30% glacier coverage exhibited summertime warming. Glaciers also had a cooling effect on monthly mean stream temperature during the summer (July through September) equivalent to a decrease of 1.1 °C for each 10% increase in glacier coverage. The maximum weekly average temperature (an index of thermal suitability for salmon) in the six glacial streams was substantially below the lower threshold for optimum salmon growth. This finding suggests that although glaciers are important for moderating summer stream temperatures, future reductions in glacier run‐off may actually improve the thermal suitability of some glacially dominated streams in Southeast Alaska for salmon. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variation of stream temperature among mesoscale habitats within stream reaches: southern Appalachians

Stream mesoscale habitats have systematic topographic relationships to hyporheic flow patterns, which may create predictable temperature variation between mesoscale habitat types. We investigated whether systematic differences in temperature metrics occurred between mesoscale habitats within reaches of small streams tributary to the upper Little Tennessee River, southern Appalachians. Surface water temperature was recorded over three or four mid‐summer days in four mesoscale habitat types: riffle, main riffle, pool and alcove in 44 stream segments (sites). Temperature metrics were calculated for each mesoscale habitat relative to the mean value of the metric over the stream: Δ maximum temperature, Δ average maximum temperature and Δ maximum daily variation and also for each site: standard deviation of the maximum temperature and average diurnal variation (ADV). Sites were categorized as fully or partially forested. Pool tailouts had statistically significantly lower Δ maximum temperature and Δ average maximum temperature than riffle tailouts in partially forested sites, although differences were small. This was the opposite of what was expected in the presence of hyporheic exchange, indicating hyporheic exchange is not a dominant driver of mesoscale habitat temperatures at these sites. Temperature differences between mesoscale habitat units were small and unlikely to have ecological significance. We also evaluated relationships between stream temperature and riparian condition, watershed % impervious surfaces, watershed % non‐forested and elevation. ADV and standard deviation of the maximum temperature were significantly higher in partially forested sites, indicating that partially forested sites have greater temperature ranges and spatial variation of maximum temperatures. ADV decreased with elevation and increased with % impervious surfaces. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Insights on stream temperature processes through development of a coupled hydrologic and stream temperature model for forested coastal headwater catchments

Stream temperature controls a number of biological, chemical, and physical processes occurring in aquatic environments. Transient snow cover and advection associated with lateral throughflow inputs can have a dominant influence on stream thermal regimes for headwater catchments in the rain‐on‐snow zone. Most existing stream temperature models lack the ability to properly simulate these processes. We developed and evaluated a conceptual‐parametric catchment‐scale stream temperature model that includes the role of transient snow cover and lateral advection associated with throughflow. The model consists of routines for simulating canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, hillslope throughflow runoff and temperature, and stream channel energy exchange processes. The model was used to predict discharge and stream temperature for a small forested headwater catchment near Vancouver, Canada, using long‐term (1963–2013) weather data to compute model forcing variables. The model was evaluated against 4 years of observed stream temperature. The model generally predicted daily mean stream temperature accurately (annual RMSE between 0.57 and 1.24 °C) although it overpredicted daily summer stream temperatures by up to 3 °C during extended low streamflow conditions. Model development and testing provided insights on the roles of advection associated with lateral throughflow, channel interception of snow, and surface–subsurface water interactions on stream thermal regimes. This study shows that a relatively simple but process‐based model can provide reasonable stream temperature predictions for forested headwater catchments located in the rain‐on‐snow zone.     

Thermal regimes in a large upland salmon river: a simple model to identify the influence of landscape controls and climate change on maximum temperatures

Temperature observations at 25 sites in the 2000 km² Dee catchment in NE Scotland were used, in conjunction with geographic information system (GIS) analysis, to identify dominant landscape controls on mean monthly maximum stream temperatures. Maximum winter stream temperatures are mainly controlled by elevation, catchment area and hill shading, whereas the maximum temperatures in summer are driven by more complex interactions, which include the influence of riparian forest cover and distance to coast. Multiple linear regression was used to estimate the catchment‐wide distribution of mean weekly maximum stream temperatures for the hottest week of the 2‐year observation period. The results suggested the streams most sensitive to high temperatures are small upland streams at exposed locations without any forest cover and relatively far inland, while lowland streams with riparian forest cover at locations closer to the coast exhibit a moderated thermal regime. Under current conditions, all streams provide a suitable thermal habitat for both, Atlantic salmon and brown trout. Using two climate change scenarios assuming 2·5 and 4 °C air temperature increases, respectively, temperature‐sensitive zones of the stream network were identified, which could potentially have an adverse effect on the thermal habitat of Atlantic salmon and brown trout. Analysis showed that the extension of riparian forests into headwater streams has the potential to moderate changes in temperature under climate change. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling temperature change downstream of forest harvest using Newton's law of cooling

We adapted Newton's law of cooling to model downstream water temperature change in response to stream‐adjacent forest harvest on small and medium streams (average 327 ha in size) throughout the Oregon Coast Range, USA. The model requires measured stream gradient, width, depth and upstream control reach temperatures as inputs and contains two free parameters, which were determined by fitting the model to measured stream temperature data. This model reproduces the measured downstream temperature responses to within 0.4 °C for 15 of the 16 streams studied and provides insight into the physical sources of site‐to‐site variation among those responses. We also use the model to examine how the pre‐harvest to post‐harvest change in daily maximum stream temperature depends on distance from the harvest reach. The model suggests that the pre‐harvest to post‐harvest temperature change approximately 300 m downstream of the harvest will range from roughly 82% to less than 1% of that temperature change that occurred within the harvest reach, depending primarily on the downstream width, depth and gradient. Using study‐averaged values for these channel characteristics, the model suggests that for a stream representative of those in the study, the temperature change approximately 300 m downstream of the harvest will be 56% of the temperature change that occurred within the harvest reach. This adapted Newton's law of cooling procedure represents a highly practical means for predicting stream temperature behaviour downstream of timber harvests relative to conventional heat budget approaches and is informative of the dominant processes affecting stream temperature. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.