第23太阳活动周期太阳风参数及地磁指数的统计分析

日冕物质抛射(Coronal Mass Ejection,简称CME)和共转相互作用区(Corotating Interaction Region,简称CIR)是造成日地空间行星际扰动和地磁扰动的两个主要原因,提供了地球磁暴的主要驱动力,进而显著影响地球空间环境.为深入研究太阳风活动及受其主导影响的地磁活动的时间分布特征,本文对大量太阳风参数及地磁活动指数的数据进行了详细分析.首先,采用由NASA OMNIWeb提供的太阳风参数及地磁活动指数的公开数据,通过自主编写matlab程序对第23太阳活动周期(1996-01-01—2008-12-31)的数据包括行星际磁场Bz分量、太阳风速度、太阳风质子密度、太阳风动压等重要太阳风参数及Dst指数、AE指数、Kp指数等主要的地磁指数进行统计分析,建立了包括269个CME事件和456个CIR事件列表的数据库.采用事例分析法和时间序列叠加法分别对两类太阳活动的四个重要太阳风参数(IMF Bz、太阳风速度、太阳风质子密度、太阳风动压)和三个主要地磁指数(Dst、AE、Kp)进行统计分析,并研究了其统计特征.其次,根据Dst指数最小值确定了第23太阳活动周期内的355个孤立地磁暴事件,并以Dst指数最小值为标准将这些磁暴进一步分类为145个弱磁暴、123个中等磁暴、70个强磁暴、12个剧烈磁暴和5个巨大磁暴.最后,采用时间序列叠加法对不同强度磁暴的太阳风参数和地磁指数进行统计分析.统计分析表明,对于CME事件,Nsw/Pdyn(Nsw表示太阳风质子密度,Pdyn表示太阳风动压)线性拟合斜率一般为正;对于CIR事件,Nsw/Pdyn线性拟合斜率一般为负,这可作为辨别CME和CIR事件的一种有效方法.从平均意义上讲,相较于CIR事件,CME事件有更大的南向IMF Bz分量、太阳风动压Pdyn、AE指数、Kp指数以及更小的Dstmin.一般情况下,CME事件有更大的可能性驱动极强地磁暴.总体而言,对于不同强度的地磁暴,Dst指数的变化呈现出一定的相似性,但随着地磁暴强度的增强,Dst指数衰减的速度变快.CME和CIR事件以及其各自驱动的地磁暴事件有着很多不同,因此,需要将CME事件驱动的磁暴及CIR事件驱动的磁暴分开研究.建立CME、CIR事件及地磁暴的数据库以及获取的统计分析结果,将为深入研究地球磁层等离子体片、辐射带及环电流对太阳活动的响应特征提供有利的帮助.     

甘肃天祝地区地电暴变化分析研究

针对2015年发生的4次磁情指数K≥6的磁暴事件,分析了甘肃天祝地区松山、寺滩和古丰地电场在磁暴发生期间的观测数据,结果表明:地电场各测向均记录到同步的地电暴变化,其最大变幅均明显高于正常日变;对同一场地地电场,其变化幅度与磁情指数K呈正相关;对不同场地地电场,因其对磁暴的响应程度不同,其变幅差别很大,这可能与地下岩石、裂隙、含水度及渗透率等水文地质因素及台址介质的电性结构有关。     

宇宙线小波分析在大地磁暴预报中的应用

利用Morlet小波变换方法对北京宇宙线台站的地面宇宙线强度在地磁暴前后的变化特征进行分析,得到:1)在平静期,北京宇宙线数据存在准24h周期性的特征,且通过分析周期为12h的Morlet小波"模",发现值稳定,且小于0.6;2)以90天为时间窗口,对2004年7月地磁暴前后的小波频谱变化进行详细分析,发现当发生大地磁暴时,宇宙线的静日准24h周期被打破,其他周期的波动开始增强.进一步研究发现,周期12h的波动在大地磁暴数小时到1天左右会出现显著增强,这一现象在2001、2002和2004年期间的大地磁暴前得到验证.3)Morlet小波"模"数据的急速增大是发生地磁暴的先兆特征,当小波模变化达到一定的阈值就可能发生大磁暴.本文分析了周期为12h时小波的模数据,对强地磁暴事件进行统计,选定阈值0.6,并通过2003年的6次大地磁暴进行预报验证,结果表明该方法不仅能够对大地磁暴事件进行预报,而且提前量满足预报需求,为基于宇宙线实测数据预报地磁暴方法提供了重要基础.     

磁暴数据的多尺度分析

磁暴可能对电网、油气管线等技术系统的安全运行造成影响,分析磁暴的时频特征对研究技术系统的影响有重要意义.本研究采用多尺度小波变换,分析广东肇庆地磁台的磁暴地磁数据,将磁暴地磁分量数据分解为高频和低频,研究了磁暴地磁分量的时域特征,得到了一些有价值的结论.     

电磁卫星地面对比观测原型系统地电场观测资料特征分析

通过对电磁监测试验卫星地面对比观测原型系统中古丰、寺滩和坪城地电场观测数据特征研究,结果表明：（1）3个台站的地电场观测数据均具有较为明显的正常日变化形态;（2）在磁暴发生期间,地电场各测向均记录到了同步的地电暴变化,其最大变幅均明显高于正常日变;（3）寺滩地电场记录到临震前的数据异常现象,在时间和空间上都与地震事件吻合较好。     

磁情指数K、磁暴与地震相关性统计分析

在收集整理全球大震数据目录资料的基础上,利用贵阳地磁台地磁报告分析资料和FHD数字化磁力仪记录资料绘制图,统计分析了磁情指数K、磁暴与地震的关系,认为K指数〈5时,磁暴次数少,地震多;反之,K指数≥5时,磁暴次数多,地震发生的次数少。根据有关专家研究统计对比模拟记录与数字化记录,两种仪器的观测记录资料基本一致。     

对1991年7月12─15日磁暴在我国境内空间差异的分析

我国地磁台站对１９９１年７月１２─１５日磁暴所统计的Ｋ指数的差异较大。本文通过对全国分布的３８个台站记录资料的统计分析。得出结论：我国境内台站统计的该磁暴的Ｋ指数的差异主要与ＤＰ型变化的空间差异有关，台站测量数据是正确的。     

秒采样精度下磁暴急始自动拾取方法研究

磁暴急始的自动识别拾取与磁暴报告自动产出是国家地磁台网数据产品产出中重要的内容。为实现在1s采样率下的磁暴急始高精度拾取,本文针对性地提出基于Walsh变换和Akaike信息准则(AIC)的起跳点检测算法——Walsh-AIC算法,将其应用于98个磁暴急始事件的拾取上,并采用由国际地磁指数服务(ISGI)发布的磁暴时刻为标准对应用效果进行评估。结果表明,该算法不仅能够将急始磁暴起跳时刻的位置更加明显地刻画出来,而且能够有效避免传统识别急始磁暴的AIC算法中存在的识别起跳时刻结果晚于实际起跳时刻的情况。同时,将Walsh-AIC算法与其他主流拾取方法进行对比,发现前者定位结果的平均偏差和标准差均明显小于其他算法。此外,Walsh-AIC算法结果的误差关于0点的对称性较好,表明该算法拾取磁暴急始起跳时刻的精度较高,适合于解决磁暴急始的自动拾取问题。     

地电暴事件判别方法及特征分析

本文基于我国2015—2018年间地电暴事件,通过对筛选的数据曲线变化特征归纳分析,总结出以下快速准确判断地电暴事件的依据:(1)地电暴发生时,会压制地电场六道观测数据正常日变形态,且变幅是正常日变幅值2倍以上或更大;(2)地电暴事件具有广域同步性,可通过多台观测数据对比判断;(3)地电暴和地磁暴具有同源性,可通过地磁观测来判断;(4)经过上述初判后,还应排除观测系统、自然环境、人为干扰、场地环境事件影响,才能确认为单一地电暴事件。通过对地电暴波形特征的分析,发现一般情况下地电暴变幅与地磁磁情指数—K指数呈正比关系,但是同一台站地电暴变幅在同一K指数下差异较大。不同台站对同一地电暴事件幅度响应不同,仅从变幅来看纬度效应不明显,有局部区域性特点,可能与台站台址条件\,地电场布极方式方位等因素均有关。     

2017年9月强磁暴及引发的电离层扰动

本文研究内容基于2017年9月7日20UT开始的一次强烈的地磁暴事件.这是一次"特殊"的磁暴,在持续两天的磁暴期间,出现了两次强度较大的主相,相隔约14 h.本文通过多项磁暴指数进行研究,发现各项指数均出现两个峰值,两次主相对应的磁暴环电流指数(Dst)最小值都低于100 nT.强磁暴引发了剧烈的电离层扰动,本文中采用南北极区的4个全球导航卫星系统(GNSS)跟踪站的数据展开研究,并将垂直路径总电子含量(VTEC)作为指标进行分析,发现电离层扰动幅度在南北极区存在较大差异.南极地区的站点的电离层扰动幅度要远高于北极地区,其中MCM4站VTEC水平甚至超出平时300％.此外,极区的VTEC变化趋势与地磁指数的变化呈现出基本一致的状态,表现为在磁暴的两次主相时均可以观测到强烈的电离层正暴.本文还选取位于中国东半部的3个电离层测高仪站数据,以电离层层临界频率(f0F2)为依据,采用相似衰落法对中低纬度大尺度电离层行扰(LSTID)进行了研究,发现其传播速度衰减明显且不同高度层面水平传播速度有差异,在300 km高度,LSTID从漠河站传播至武汉站的平均水平传播视速度为340 m/s,从武汉站传播至三亚站,这一速度为200 m/s;在400 km高度,这两个速度分别为375 m/s、215 m/s;LSTID传播的方向为南偏西约20°.     

利用大地电磁站间阻抗估算磁暴引起的大地电场

由磁暴引起的地下感应电场(geomagnetic induction electric field,GIE)会影响电网的安全稳定运行,GIE的大小取决于磁暴时磁场的变化率和周围地下介质的电性结构.本文利用在地表观测的磁场与电场数据,首先求得频率域实际地下三维大地电磁站间阻抗,再结合磁暴时段的磁场数据,计算GIE的频谱,最后通过傅里叶反变换,得到GIE时间序列.本文以日本地区三个长期观测的电磁电台站为例,讨论了站间阻抗的长期稳定性,并选取一次典型的磁暴事件,对本文方法进行了验证.结果表明,合成的GIE与实测数据基本一致,说明利用大地电磁站间阻抗,结合地磁台站数据,可以高精度合成GIE.本文方法有助于定量评价磁暴发生时产生的GIE对电网可能造成的破坏作用.     

地磁垂直分量Z日变幅逐日比及其与磁暴和地震的关系

地磁垂直分量Z日变幅逐日比是基于变化磁场在地球电导率的作用下会产生一个与变化磁场相反的感应磁场, 该感应磁场不仅包含了外空磁场的信息, 还包含了地下电导率的信息。 因此, 相对于地磁场其他成分来说Z分量更多地反应了地下活动的变化, 逐日比是利用前后两日地磁Z分量日变幅相比来提取该异常现象, 但磁暴可能会对逐日比异常判定产生影响。 我们取1984年至今江苏区域范围达到逐日比异常判定指标的29个事件结合磁暴以及该异常事件之后和地震的对应关系进行统计分析。 研究发现, 无磁暴时逐日比异常和预测范围内地震对应关系达到0.77, 有磁暴时逐日比异常和地震对应关系为0.25。 综合分析认为逐日比异常事件发生后, 若该日无磁暴或者Dst指数小于异常第二日, 那么该异常为地震前兆的可能性大概为0.8, 反之则该异常有可能是磁暴的影响而不是来自于地下活动的影响, 需结合其他前兆分析方法进行综合分析, 该研究增强了逐日比异常判定地震地磁前兆信息的可靠性。     

Comparison of Earth’s magnetospheric magnetic field models in the context of cosmic ray physics

Over the last two decades, models of the Earth’s magnetospheric magnetic field have been continuously improved to describe more precisely the different magnetospheric current systems (magnetopause current, symmetric and partial ring currents, tail currents and field aligned currents). In this paper we compare the different Tsyganenko models and the Alexeev and Feldstein model in the context of cosmic ray physics. We compare the vertical cutoff rigidity and asymptotic direction of vertical incidence obtained with these models for the January 20, 2005, ground level enhancement and for the big magnetic storm of April 6, 2000. For the event of January 20, 2005, we study the impact of the differences in asymptotic direction obtained with the models on the radiation dose computation at aircraft altitude. For the magnetic storm of April 6, 2000, we discuss the importance of the different magnetospheric current systems in causing cutoff rigidity variations. Finally we summarise the advantages and drawbacks of the different models in the context of space weather.     

Investigating the effects of a summer storm on the North Sea stratification using a regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model

The influence of a summer storm event in 2007 on the North Sea and its effects on the ocean stratification are investigated using a regional coupled ocean (Regional Ocean Modeling System, ROMS)-atmosphere (Weather Research & Forecasting model, WRF) modeling system. An analysis of potential energy anomaly (PEA, Φ) and its temporal development reveals that the loss of stratification due to the storm event is dominated by vertical mixing in almost the entire North Sea. For specific regions, however, a considerable contribution of depth-mean straining is observed. Vertical mixing is highly correlated with wind induced surface stresses. However, peak mixing values are observed in combination with incoming flood currents. Depending on the phase between winds and tides, the loss of stratification differs strongly over the North Sea. To study the effects of interactive ocean-atmosphere exchange, a fully coupled simulation is compared with two uncoupled ones for the same vertical mixing parameters to identify the impact of spatial resolution as well as of SST feedback. While the resulting new mixed layer depth after the storm event in the uncoupled simulation with lower spatial and temporal resolution of the surface forcing data can still be located in the euphotic zone, the coupled simulation is capable to mix the entire water column and the vertical mixing in the uncoupled simulation with higher resolution of the surface forcing data is strongly amplified. These differences might have notable implications for ecosystem modeling since it could determine the development of new phytoplankton blooms after the storm and for sediment modeling in terms of sediment mobilization. An investigation of restratification after the extreme event illustrates the persistent effect of this summer storm.     

地磁台网指数报告产出系统研发与应用

基于数据中台理念和数据专家(Datist)软件平台,研发设计地磁台网指数报告产出系统,使用国家地磁台网中心等平台产出的地磁指数数据生成报告,通过定时触发和人工触发2种方式实现有关图件的产出,并通过微信完成产品报告推送。本系统组件式、低代码的开发方式便于科研人员的研发、使用与维护,可减少重复劳动。该系统实现了多源异构数据的融合,可自动生成空间数据分析图、各类数据产品图报告,便于相关部门及用户及时了解磁情指数变化,可辅助工作人员进行快速研判并展开相关工作,提高了工作效率,优化了服务能力。     

Morphological records of storm floods exemplified by the impact of the 1872 Baltic storm on a sandy spit system in south‐eastern Denmark

Beach‐ridge systems are important geo‐archives providing evidence for past wave climate including catastrophic storm flood events. This study investigates the morphological impacts of the 1872 Baltic storm flood on a beach‐ridge system (sandy spit) in south‐eastern Denmark and evaluates the frequency of extreme storm flood events in the area over a longer time perspective. This paper combines field studies of morphology and sedimentary deposits, studies of historical maps, digital terrain model, ground‐penetrating radar profiles, and luminescence dating. Sea water reached 2.8 m above mean sea level (amsl) during peak inundation and, based on studies of the morphological impacts of the 1872 storm flood, the event can be divided into four phases. Phase 1: increasing mean water levels and wave activity at the beach brought sediments from the beach (intertidal bars and normal berm) higher up in the profile and led to the formation of a storm‐berm. Phase 2: water levels further increased and sediment in the upper part of the profile continued to build up the storm‐berm. Phase 3: water levels now reached the top of the dune ridge and were well above the storm‐berm level. Sea water was breaching the dune ridge at several sites and wash‐over fans were generated until a level where the mean water level had dropped too much. Phase 4: the non‐vegetated wash‐over fans functioned as pathways for aeolian sand transport and relatively high dunes were formed in particular along the margins of the fan where aeolian sand was trapped by existing vegetation. The studied beach‐ridge system records about 4500 years of accumulation; the storm flood sediments described are unique suggesting that the 1872 Baltic storm flood event was an extreme event. Thus studies of beach‐ridge systems form a new source for understanding storm surge risk. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling the Dst variation during magnetic storms

A unified method for calculating the Dst index and its components using models of the magnetospheric magnetic field is proposed. The method is consistent with the procedure for calculating Dst from the ground-based magnetometer data. When calculating Dst, the quiet-day magnetic variation is subtracted from the model variation of the magnetic field of magnetospheric sources. The effect of induced currents flowing in the surface layer of the Earth’s crust is taken into account. The dynamics of the magnetospheric current systems during a storm is studied based on an analysis of the Dst components. The magnetic field components for a “quiet” day in June 1998 are studied. The calculations of the Dst components in the parabolid and T01 models demonstrate that the maximum contributions of the ring current and magnetotail current system to the Dst variation are comparable for the magnetic storm of June 25–26, 1998.     

Heavy metal release by peat erosion in the Peak District,southern Pennines,UK

Upper North Grain (UNG) is a heavily eroding blanket peat catchment in the Peak District, southern Pennines, UK. Concentrations of lead in the near‐surface peat layer at UNG are in excess of 1000 mg kg⁻¹. For peatland environments, these lead concentrations are some of the highest globally. High concentrations of industrially derived, atmospherically transported magnetic spherules are also stored in the near‐surface peat layer. Samples of suspended sediment taken during a storm event that occurred on 1 November 2002 at UNG, and of the potential catchment sources for suspended sediments, were analysed for lead content and the environmental magnetic properties of anhysteretic remanent magnetization (ARM) and saturation isothermal remanent magnetization (SIRM). At the beginning of the storm event, there is a peak in both suspended sediment and associated lead concentration. SIRM/ARM values for suspended sediment samples throughout the storm reveal that the initial ‘lead flush’ is associated with a specific sediment source, namely that of organic sediment eroded from the upper peat layer. Using the magnetic ‘fingerprinting’ approach to discrimination of sediment sources, this study reveals that erosion of the upper peat layer at UNG is releasing high concentrations of industrially derived lead (and, by inference, other toxic heavy metals associated with industrial particulates) into the fluvial systems of the southern Pennines. Climate‐change scenarios for the UK, involving higher summer temperatures and stormier winters, may result in an increased flux both of sediment‐associated and dissolved heavy metals from eroding peatland catchments in the southern Pennines, adversely affecting the quality of sediment and water entering reservoirs of the region. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of the interplanetary secondary rarefaction waves on the geomagnetic field

Based on the WIND and GOES satellite data on the solar wind and IMF parameters and the data on the surface magnetic field, it has been indicated that the secondary MHD rarefaction wave can affect the geomagnetic field during a storm sudden commencement (SSC) event. The secondary rarefaction wave originates in the magnetosheath when the shock wave interacts with the Earth’s magnetosphere.