基于第四代地震区划的跨越发震断层永久位移概率分析方法

本文主要借鉴了Lee(2007)和Youngs(2003)提出的地表永久位移估计方法,联合中国第四代地震区划图的潜在震源区参数,给出了适合中国跨越发震断层永久位移概率分析方法。震害调查表明,近场的结构破坏不仅是地震动引起的,地震地表的破裂或永久位移引起的破坏也占很大比重。应用与概率估计地震动相似的方法,给出不同概率水准的地震地表永久位移,使之服务于穿越地震发震断层管线、桥梁工程的抗震设防,采取有效的抗御永久地表位移措施,减小地震灾害带来的损失。     

山东海阳断裂东石兰沟段晚更新世以来地表断错特征与最大潜在地震估计

海阳断裂是胶东半岛NE向牟平 -即墨断裂带东部一条规模较大的断裂 ,尽管晚更新世以来该断裂的地表断错活动总体上已基本停息 ,但东石兰沟段在晚更新世晚期以来仍有断错地表的活动。最后一次断错地表的活动发生在距今 3 7～ 1 2万年 ,但接近 1 2万年。地表破裂长度约6 5km ,活动段长度 8km。地表断错以走滑活动为主 ,可见最大倾滑位移 0 2m ;根据断层擦痕侧伏角推测最大水平位移 1 13m。最后一次断错地表的活动若以距今 1 2万年计算 ,则最大平均倾滑速率为 0 0 17mm/a ;最大平均右旋走滑速率为 0 0 94mm/a。野外观测到该活动段的断错活动表现为突发断错 ,根据地震地表破裂参数、活动段长度与地震的关系 ,估计其最大潜在地震为 6 级     

2022年青海门源MS6.9地震后冷龙岭断裂未来强震的水平位错量评估

2022年1月8日青海门源发生Ｍ_S6.9地震,该地震造成冷龙岭断裂西端错断了兰新铁路大梁隧道,导致铁路长期停运,经济损失巨大。制定隧道修复方案时,需对冷龙岭断裂未来强震的水平位错量进行评估。结合近年来冷龙岭断裂的最新研究进展,同时采用确定性方法和概率断层位错危险性分析方法评估冷龙岭断裂未来强震的水平位错量。考虑不确定因素影响,同时采用3名研究者提供的震级与最大位错量经验关系式进行估算。结果表明,不同经验关系式会对评估结果产生显著影响,其中根据确定性方法得到的冷龙岭断裂未来强震的水平位错量为2.32～4.36 m,均值为3.57 m。概率断层位错危险性分析结果随着超越概率的降低而增大,50年超越概率2%、100年超越概率2%和100年超越概率1%的结果均值分别为1.82 m、3.17 m、4.61 m。相较于确定性方法,概率断层位错危险性分析可提供不同超越概率水平下的位错参数,以供不同抗震设防要求的建筑采用。此外,对于地震活动性强的断裂,可采用低超越概率下的概率断层位错危险性分析结果,该结果可能会大于确定性方法评估结果。     

2022年青海门源6.9级地震引起的地表同震位移场研究

中国青海省门源县于2022年1月8日发生6.9级地震。依据该地震震源断层信息设置4种不同的位错分布模式,基于Okada提出的地表位移解析解分别计算4种模式下地表同震位移场,结合现场观测数据,探讨发震断层的滑动形式及其对周边地表产生的影响。结果表明,此次地震发震断裂初步判断主要为冷龙岭断裂西侧延伸至托莱山断裂,以左旋走滑断层为主,断层面上最大位错量达到4 m左右;震中西南侧向NE方向运动,东南侧向SE方向运动,西北侧和东北侧分别向NW以及SW方向运动;震中附近小范围区域产生了超过1.5 m的地表水平位移,破裂带上存在竖向地表位移超过0.5 m的区域;现场监测到局部产生最大约2.1～2.3 m的水平位错,以及部分区段垂直位错量最大达到0.7 m;以震中位置为中心,断层引起的地表位移影响范围达到约30 km×36 km,此范围内产生的地表位移大于0.1m。研究为此次地震的震后恢复工作以及此区域后续的工程设防等提供参考。     

断层地表同震位错的平均位移估计方法

根据管道性能设计的理念,现行管道抗震设计规范规定现行输油气管道重要区段和一般区段的设防断层位移分别为预测的最大位移值和平均位移值,目前的断层位移估计方法一般给出的只是断层未来一百年的最大位移值,而不能给出平均位移值。针对此问题,本文综合国内外发震断层在地表的同震位错分布调查结果,总结分析了断层同震位错沿断层地表破裂走向的分布形态特点,并通过对实际震例中不同计算方法得到的平均位移进行对比分析,得到了断层的平均同震位错量与断层最大同震位错量的比值关系。基于国内外地震断层位移的大量数据,考虑一定的安全系数,本文建议采用预测断层最大位移值的2/3作为一般区段输油气管道的设防断层位移。      

走滑型断层地表永久位移预测模型研究

论述了断层地表永久位移概率地震危险性分析方法的发展过程和应用现状,指出了断层地表破裂预测模型研究的意义。根据我国最近的活动断层地表破裂震后调查结果,基于走滑型断层地表破裂数据,拟合了地表破裂预测模型。采用地震活动性模型和地表破裂预测模型,计算了则木河断裂地表迹线上的永久位移危险性曲线,对预测模型在工程场地地震危险性分析中的应用,提出了建议。     

天山内部博罗可努断裂精河--阿拉山口段晚更新世以来的活动特征

通过对博罗可努断裂河－阿拉山口段微地貌的实地调查,发现该断裂错情河东南到阿拉山口之间的晚更新世冲洪积扇,地表留下了冲沟和山脊同步右旋位错、断层陡坎、断层鼓包、拉分盆地等与断层活动有关的微地貌。精河东南冲洪积扇上大冲沟的最大右旋位移为５００ｍ,平均４００ｍ,断层陡坎上的纹沟右旋位移为２．６～４．０ｍ,较大级别的纺沟位移可分为５．７ｍ,８．３ｍ和１５．３ｍ３组,它们大致为３的整数倍。实测断层陡坎的高度     

地震安全性评价中若干地震地质问题探讨

本文在对活动断层的工程涵义进行了简要分析后,讨论了断层物质测年的工程应用进展及其断层活动时代鉴定问题,并就如何加强中强地震发震构造判别、应用地震地质资料评估大地震年平均发生率、以及活动断层地表断错位移的概率评价等问题作了初步探讨。     

活动断裂地震变形与重大工程场地安全距离研究

在不考虑地表覆盖层的情况下，采用三维有限元方法计算了不同震级、不同断层活动方式以及不同断层倾角下断层上、下盘地表的地震位移及形变分布，通过设定的安全距离判定标准，研究了各种情况下工程场地距断层的安全距离。研究表明，活动断裂的安全距离应根据断裂性质、活动方式、活动强度、断裂上下盘等因素及工程设防要求共同确定。     

凹凸体位错非均匀性对断层引起地表位移的影响

在已有的凹凸体震源模型基础上考虑凹凸体位错非均匀性,提出改进的凹凸体位错模式.新的位错模式随机设置凹凸体上各子断层位错量,同时在凹凸体与背景区交界处设置位错平缓变化的区域.以1989年美国 LomaPrieta地震为例,计算不同断层位错模式下引起的地表位移,并与反演得到真实情况下地表的位移作对比,验证改进凹凸体位错模式的可靠性.结果显示,使用改进的渐变凹凸体非均匀位错模式计算时,与真实情况下竖向地表位移差大于8cm 的区域面积为 43km2,相较凹凸体均匀位错模式缩减25%;水平地表位移差大于8cm 区域面积为117km2,相较凹凸体均匀位错模式缩减达31%.利用改进的渐变凹凸体非均匀位错模式,计算1679年三河—平谷大地震在北京地区形成的地表位移场.北京市外,最大竖向地表位移大于4．8m,最大水平地表位移大于2．6m,均出现在三河附近;北京市内,通州区至平谷区一带地表位移最大,最大水平地表位移大于 2．6m,最大竖向地表位移大于1m.研究结果可为今后北京地区的抗震设防提供参考.     

高烈度艰险山区跨断层隧道减震层减震技术研究

为进一步提高高烈度艰险山区跨断层隧道的减震性能,依托丽香铁路蒙古哨隧道工程,利用有限差分数值软件FLAC~(3D)对跨断层隧道施设减震层不同模式的减震效果进行研究。研究结果表明:减震层施设于初支与围岩间,其横向位移减小4.17%、竖向位移减小14.32%、最大主应力减小47.89%、最小主应力减小25.93%、最大剪切应力减小27.74%、最小安全系数提高34.62%～59.40%;减震层施设于初支与二衬间,其横向位移减小3.72%、竖向位移减小7.73%、最大主应力减小16.11%、最小主应力减小20.21%、最大剪切应力减小20.73%、最小安全系数提高0.04%～28.38%;减震层施设于初支与围岩间的减震效果优于施设于初支与二衬间。研究成果对于跨断层隧道的减震设计及减震技术有着重要的意义。     

一条断裂的活动性鉴定及其工程意义

拟建的某水利工程场地存在一规模较大的北北东向断裂,定名为F1断裂.通过对F1断裂的地质雷达探测、工程地质资料分析、地震地质调查、断裂断错和上覆第四纪地层年代测试等工作,鉴定了此断裂的活动性,评价了断裂对工程的影响,提出了工程选址和设计建议,为断裂活动性鉴定在工程选址和设计中的实际应用提供了一个范例.     

黄县弧形断裂探测、活动性鉴定及其地震地质意义

本文通过地质雷达探测、工程探测、地震地质调查、断裂断错和上覆第四纪地层年代测试等,确定了黄县弧形断裂的空间分布、运动性质、活动时代、垂直位移和滑动速率,鉴定了断裂的活动性,取得了一些有价值的成果。这些成果已在胶东北部沿海地区工程项目场地地震安全性评价工作、山东内陆部分潜在震源区划分与调整、山东省地震重点监视防御区判定研究中得到应用。本文的研究思路和方法对其它活动断层探测和断裂活动性鉴定有借鉴意义。     

NEAR-FAULT DISPLACEMENT AND DEFORMATION OBTAINED FROM ONE-KILOMETER-LONG FAULT-CROSSING BASELINE MEASUREMENTS-A PRELIMINARY EXPERIMENT AT 2 SITES ON THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE SICHUAN-YUNNAN BLOCK

The current and conventional fault-crossing short baseline measurement has a relatively high precision, but its measurement arrays usually fail to or cannot completely span major active fault zones due to the short length of the baselines, which are only tens to 100 meters. GNSS measurement has relatively low resolution on near-fault deformation and hence is not suitable for monitoring those faults with low motion and deformation rates, due to sparse stations and relatively low accuracy of the GNSS observation. We recently built up two experimental sites on the eastern boundary of the active Sichuan-Yunnan block, one crossing the Daqing section of the Zemuhe Fault and the other crossing the Longshu section of the Zhaotong Fault, aiming to test the measurement of near-fault motion and deformation by using fault-crossing arrays of one-kilometer-long baselines. In this paper, from a three-year-long data set we firstly introduce the selection of the sites and the methods of the measurement. We then calculate and analyze the near-field displacement and strain of the two sites by using three hypothetical models, the rigid body, elastic and composed models, proposed by previous researchers. In the rigid body model, we assume that an observed fault is located between two rigid blocks and the observed variances in baseline lengths result from the relative motion of the blocks. In the elastic model, we assume that a fault deforms uniformly within the fault zone over which a baseline array spans, and in the array baselines in different directions may play roles as strainmeters whose observations allow us to calculate three components of near-fault horizontal strain. In the composed model, we assume that both displacement and strain are accumulated within the fault zone that a baseline array spans, and both contribute to the observed variances in baseline lengths. Our results show that, from the rigid body model, variations in horizontal fault-parallel displacement component of the Zemuhe Fault at the Daqing site fluctuate within 3mm without obvious tendencies. The displacement variation in the fault-normal component keeps dropping in 2015 and 2016 with a cumulative decrease of 6mm, reflecting transverse horizontal compression, and it turns to rise slightly(suggesting extension)in 2017. From the elastic model, the variation in horizontal fault-normal strain component of the fault at Daqing shows mainly compression, with an annual variation close to 10^-5, and variations in the other two strain components are at the order of 10^-6. For the Longshu Fault, the rigid-body displacement of the fault varies totally within a few millimeters, but shows a dextral strike-slip tendency that is consistent with the fault motion known from geological investigation, and the observed dextral-slip rate is about 0.7mm/a on average. The fault-parallel strain component of the Longshu Fault is compressional within 2×10^-6, and the fault-normal strain component is mainly extensional. Restricted by the assumption of rigid-body model, we have to ignore homolateral deformation on either side of an observed fault and attribute such deformation to the fault displacement, resulting in an upper limit estimate of the fault displacement. The elastic model emphasizes more the deformation on an observed fault zone and may give us information about localizations of near-fault strain. The results of the two sites from the composed model suggest that it needs caution when using this model due to that big uncertainty would be introduced in solving relevant equations. Level surveying has also been carried out at the meantime at the two sites. The leveling series of the Daqing site fluctuates within 4mm and shows no tendency, meaning little vertical component of fault motion has been observed at this site; while, from the rigid-body model, the fault-normal motion shows transverse-horizontal compression of up to 6mm, indicating that the motion of the Zemuhe Fault at Daqing is dominantly horizontal. The leveling series of the Longshu site shows a variation with amplitude comparable with that observed from the baseline series here, suggesting a minor component of thrust faulting; while the baseline series of the same site do not present tendencies of fault-normal displacement. Since the steep-dip faults at the two sites are dominantly strike-slip in geological time scale, we ignore probable vertical movement temporarily. In addition, lengths of homolateral baselines on either side of the faults change somewhat over time, and this makes us consider the existence of minor faults on either side of the main faults. These probable minor faults may not reach to the surface and have not been identified through geological mapping; they might result in the observed variances in lengths of homolateral baselines, fortunately such variations are small relative to those in fault-crossing baselines. In summary, the fault-crossing measurement using arrays with one-kilometer-long baselines provides us information about near-fault movement and strain, and has a slightly higher resolution relative to current GNSS observation at similar time and space scales, and therefore this geodetic technology will be used until GNSS networks with dense near-fault stations are available in the future.     

Mechanism on Moho offset induced by aseismic slip of deeply buried faults

Recent high-resolution deep seismic reflection profile across the Kunlun fault in northeastern Tibet shows clearly that the Moho is cut off by a complex thrust fault system. Moho offset is a general phenomenon, but little is known about the dynamic mechanism. In this study, contact models with Maxwell materials are used to simulate the mechanical process of Moho offset induced by the aseismic slip of deeply buried faults. Based on the seismic reflection data, we project a single fault model and a complex fault system model with two faults intersecting. The deformations of the Moho, the aseismic slips, and contact stresses on faults in different models are discussed in detail. Results show that the Moho offset might be produced by aseismic slip of deeply buried faults, and the magnitude is influenced by the friction coefficient of faults and the viscosity of the lower crust. The maximum slip occurs near the Moho on the single fault or at the crossing point of two intersecting faults system. Stress concentrates mainly on the Moho, the deep end of faults, or the crossing point. This study will throw light on understanding the mechanism of Moho offset and aseismic slip of deeply buried faults. The results of complex fault system with two faults intersecting are also useful to understand the shallow intersecting faults that may cause earthquakes.     

RESEARCH ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF QUATERNARY ACTIVITIES OF SU-XI-CHANG FAULT

Running across the urban areas of Changzhou, Wuxi and Suzhou, the NW-trending Su-Xi-Chang Fault is an important buried fault in Yangtze River Delta. In the respect of structural geomorphology, hilly landform is developed along the southwest side of the Su-Xi-Chang Fault, and a series of lakes and relatively low-lying depressions are developed on its northeast side, which is an important landform and neotectonic boundary line. The fault controlled the Jurassic and Cretaceous stratigraphic sedimentary and Cenozoic volcanic activities, and also has obvious control effects on the modern geomorphology and Quaternary stratigraphic distribution. Su-Xi-Chang Fault is one of the target faults of the project "Urban active fault exploration and seismic risk assessment in Changzhou City" and "Urban active fault exploration and seismic risk assessment in Suzhou City". Hidden in the ground with thick cover layer, few researches have been done on this fault in the past. The study on the activity characteristics and the latest activity era of the Su-Xi-Chang Fault is of great significance for the prevention and reduction of earthquake disaster losses caused by the destructive earthquakes to the cities of Changzhou, Wuxi and Suzhou. Based on shallow seismic exploration and drilling joint profiling method, Quaternary activities and distribution characteristics of the Su-Xi-Chang Fault are analyzed systematically. Shallow seismic exploration results show that the south branch of the Su-Xi-Chang Fault in Suzhou area is dominated by normal faulting, dipping to the north-east, with a dip angle of about 60° and a displacement of 3~5m on the bedrock surface. The north branch of the Su-Xi-Chang Fault in Changzhou area is dominated by normal faulting, dipping to the south, with a dip angle of about 55°~70° and a displacement of 4~12m on the bedrock surface. All breakpoints of Su-Xi-Chang Fault on the seismic exploration profiles show that only the bedrock surface was dislocated, not the interior strata of the Quaternary. On the drilling joint profile in the Dongqiao site of Suzhou, the latest activity of the south branch of Su-Xi-Chang Fault is manifested as reverse faulting, with maximum displacement of 2.9m in the upper part of Lower Pleistocene, and the Middle Pleistocene has not been dislocated by the fault. The fault acts as normal fault in the Pre-Quaternary strata, with a displacement of 3.7m in the Neogene stratum. On the drilling joint profile in the Chaoyang Road site of Changzhou, the latest activity of the north branch of Su-Xi-Chang Fault is manifested as reverse faulting too, with maximum displacement of 2.8m in the bottom layer of the Middle Pleistocene. The fault acts as normal fault in the Pre-Quaternary strata, with a displacement of 10.2m in the bedrock surface. Combining the above results, we conclude that the latest activity era of Su-Xi-Chang Fault is early Middle Pleistocene. The Su-Xi-Chang Fault was dominated by the sinistral normal faulting in the pre-Quaternary period, and turned into sinistral reverse faulting after the early Pleistocene, with displacement of about 3m in the Quaternary strata. The maximum magnitude of potential earthquake on the Su-Xi-Chang Fault is estimated to be 6.0.     

Segmentation along Strike-Slip Faults Revisited

Fault segmentation and fault steps and their evolution are relevant to the dynamics and size of earthquake ruptures, the distribution of fault damage zones and the capacity of fault seal. Furthermore, segment interactions and coalescence are the fundamental processes for fault growth. To contribute to this end, we investigated the architecture of strike-slip faults by combining field observations in the Valley of Fire State Park, Nevada, and the published data sets. First, we studied the trace complexity for 49 faults with offsets ranging from 12 m to 460 km. We established that the number of fault steps (hence fault segments) per unit length is correlated to the maximum fault offset by a negative power law. The faults have longer segments and fewer steps when their offsets increase, indicating the progressive growth, smoothening and simplification of the fault traces as a function of the offset, as proposed by previous investigators. Second, we studied the dimensions of the segments and steps composing ~20 of the previous fault systems. The mean segment length, mean step length and mean step width are all correlated to the maximum fault offset by positive power laws over four orders of magnitude of the offset. In addition, the segment length distributions of four of the faults with offsets ranging from 80 m to 100 km are all lognormal, with most of the segment lengths falling in the range of one to five times the maximum offset of the faults. Finally, the fault steps have an approximately constant length-to-width ratio indicating that, regardless of their environment, strike-slip faults have a remarkable self-similar architecture probably due to the mechanical processes responsible for fault growth. Our data sets can be used as tools to better predict the geometrical attributes of strike-slip fault systems with important consequences for earthquake ruptures, the distribution and properties of fault damage zones, and fault sealing potential.     

Flume experiments on the horizontal stream offset by strike‐slip faults

Flume experiments, in which the middle section of an erosion channel is displaced horizontally, have been conducted to assess the response of streams to horizontal displacement by a strike‐slip fault. The experimental erosion channel was developed in a mixture of sand and clay, which provided relatively stable banks with its cohesiveness. Horizontal displacement of a strike‐slip fault perpendicular to the channel is expected to add a ?at section to its longitudinal pro?le along the fault line. The experimental stream eliminated this ?at section with downstream degradation, upstream aggradation, and lateral channel shift. As a result, a roughly continuous longitudinal pro?le was maintained. This maintenance of a continuous longitudinal pro?le along channel is considered to be the principle of stream response to horizontal displacement by a strike‐slip fault. Downstream degradation was the dominant process of this stream response in the overall tendency of erosion without sand supply. When the rate of fault displacement was low (long recurrence interval), the experimental stream eroded the fault surface, jutting laterally into the channel like a scarp, and de?ected the channel within the recurrence interval. This lateral channel shift gave some gradient to the reach created by fault displacement (offset reach), and the downstream degradation occurred as much as completing the remaining longitudinal pro?le adjustment. When the rate of fault displacement was high (short recurrence interval), the lateral erosion on the ?rst fault surface was interrupted by the next fault displacement. The displacement was then added incrementally to the existing channel offset making channel shift by lateral erosion increasingly dif?cult. The channel offset with sharp bends persisted without much modi?cation, and downstream degradation and upstream aggradation became evident with the effect of the offset channel course, which worked like a dam. In this case, a slight local convexity, which was incidentally formed by downstream degradation and upstream aggradation, tended to remain in the roughly continuous longitudinal pro?le, as long as the horizontal channel offset persisted. In either case, once the experimental stream obtained a roughly continuous gradient, further channel adjustment seemed to halt. Horizontal channel offset remained to a greater or lesser extent at the end of each run long after the last fault displacement. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.