Impact assessment of reservoir operation in the context of climate change adaptation in the Chao Phraya River basin

Climate change adaptation has become the current focus of research due to the remarkable potential of climate change to alter the spatial and temporal distribution of global water availability. Although reservoir operation is a potential adaptation option, earlier studies explicitly demonstrated only its historical quantitative effects. Therefore, this article evaluated the possibility of reservoir operation from an adaptation viewpoint for regulating the future flow using the H08 global hydrological model with the Chao Phraya River basin as a case study. This basin is the largest river system in Thailand and has often been affected by extreme weather challenges in the past. Future climate scenarios were constructed from the bias-corrected outputs of three general circulation models from 2080 to 2099 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The important conclusions that can be drawn from this study are as follows: (i) the operation of existing and hypothetical (i.e., construction under planning) reservoirs cannot reduce the future high flows below the channel carrying capacity, although it can increase low flows in the basin. This indicates that changes in the magnitude of future high flow due to climate change are likely to be larger than those achieved by reservoir operation and there is a need for other adaptation options. (ii) A combination of reservoir operation and afforestation was considered as an adaptation strategy, but the magnitude of the discharge reduction in the wet season was still smaller than the increase caused by warming. This further signifies the necessity of combining other structural, as well as non-structural, measures. Overall, this adaptation approach for assessing the effect of reservoir operation in reducing the climate change impacts using H08 model can be applied not only in the study area but also in other places where climate change signals are robust.     

逆散射级数法预测层间多次波的算法改进及其策略

波动方程预测层间多次波有两类算法.一是由Berkhout和Verschuur（1998）提出的基于CFP（共聚焦点）延拓的算法,另一是由Weglein（1997）等人提出的基于逆散射级数法的算法.ISS（逆散射级数）算法具有不依赖速度模型的优点,但是其计算成本很高.本文改进了Weglein提出的1-D预测公式,提高了计算效率.从理论方面,改进算法的计算速度提高了大约12倍.实际结果表明其计算速度更快,提高近80倍左右,主要原因在于后者的空间复杂度小.此外,由于时间-空间域比伪深度-波数域的层间多次波预测有更多的优点,本文推导了1.5-D时间-空间域ISS层间多次波预测算法,该算法有计算速度快、预测噪音小、适应观测系统能力强和不依赖地震子波等优点.在实际应用中,计算成本高是ISS预测层间多次波算法的主要障碍.因此,本文还讨论了预测层间多次波的策略.结合本文提出的改进算法和应用策略,能够在实际地震资料处理中较好地应用ISS预测层间多次波.     

Study on spatial pattern of land-use change in China during 1995—2000

Land-use/cover change has become an event being of paramount importance to the study of global environmental change[1,2]. Land-cover change is closely related to the terrestrial surface material cycles and life-support processes[3], i.e., the interaction …     

Methodology for credibility assessment of historical global LUCC datasets

Land use-induced land cover change(LUCC) is an important anthropogenic driving force of global change that has influenced, and is still influencing, many aspects of regional and global environments. Accurate historical global land use/cover datasets are essential for a better understanding of the impacts of LUCC on global change. However, there are not only evident inconsistencies in current historical global land use/cover datasets, but inaccuracies in the data in these global dataset revealed by historical record-based reconstructed regional data throughout the world. A focus in historical LUCC and global change research relates to how the accuracy of historical global land cover datasets can be improved. A methodology for assessing the credibility of existing historical global land cover datasets that addresses temporal as well as spatial changes in the amount and distribution of land cover is therefore needed. Theoretically, the credibility of a global land cover dataset could be assessed by comparing similarities or differences in the data according to actual land cover data(the "true value"). However, it is extremely difficult to obtain historical evidence for assessing the credibility of historical global land cover datasets, which cannot be verified through field sampling like contemporary global land cover datasets. We proposed a methodological framework for assessing the credibility of global land cover datasets. Considering the types and characteristics of the available evidence used for assessments,we outlined four methodological approaches:(1) accuracy assessment based on regional quantitative reconstructed land cover data,(2) rationality assessment based on regional historical facts,(3) rationality assessment based on expertise, and(4) likelihood assessment based on the consistency of multiple datasets. These methods were illustrated through five case studies of credibility assessments of historical cropland cover data. This framework can also be applied in assessments of other land cover types, such as forest and grassland.     

Study on spatial pattern of land-use change in China during 1995–2000

It is more and more acknowledged that land-use/cover dynamic change has become a key subject urgently to be dealt with in the study of global environmental change. Supported by the Landsat TM digital images, spatial patterns and temporal variation of land-use change during 1995 –2000 are studied in the paper. According to the land-use dynamic degree model, supported by the 1km GRID data of land-use change and the comprehensive characters of physical, economic and social features, a dynamic regionalization of land-use change is designed to disclose the spatial pattern of land-use change processes. Generally speaking, in the traditional agricultural zones, e.g., Huang-Huai-Hai Plains, Yangtze River Delta and Sichuan Basin, the built-up and residential areas occupy a great proportion of arable land, and in the interlock area of farming and pasturing of northern China and the oases agricultural zones, the reclamation of arable land is conspicuously driven by changes of production conditions, economic benefits and climatic conditions. The implementation of “returning arable land into woodland or grassland” policies has won initial success in some areas, but it is too early to say that the trend of deforestation has been effectively reversed across China. In this paper, the division of dynamic regionalization of land-use change is designed, for the sake of revealing the temporal and spatial features of land-use change and laying the foundation for the study of regional scale land-use changes. Moreover, an integrated study, including studies of spatial pattern and temporal process of land-use change, is carried out in this paper, which is an interesting try on the comparative studies of spatial pattern on change process and the change process of spatial pattern of land-use change.     

Techniques for assessing the climatic sensitivity of river flow regimes

Regimes are useful tools for characterizing the seasonal behaviour of river flow and other hydroclimatological variables over an annual cycle (hydrological year). This paper develops and tests: (i) a regime classification method to identify spatial and temporal patterns in intraannual hydroclimatological response; and (ii) a novel sensitivity index (SI) to assess river flow regimes' climatic sensitivity. The classification of regime shape (form) and magnitude considers the whole annual cycle rather than isolating a single month or season for analysis, which has been the common approach of previous studies. The classification method is particularly useful for identifying large‐scale patterns in regimes and their between‐year stability, thus providing a context for short‐term, small‐scale process‐based research. The SI provides a means of assessing the often‐complex linkages between climatic drivers and river flow, as it identifies the strength and direction of associations between classifications of climate and river flow regimes. The SI has the potential for application to other problems where relationships between nominal classifications require to be found. These techniques are evaluated by application to a test data set of river flow, air temperature and rainfall time‐series (1974–1999) for a sample of 35 UK river basins. The results support current knowledge about the hydroclimatology of the UK. Although this research does not seek to yield new, detailed physical process understanding, it provides perspective at large spatial and temporal scales upon climate and flow regime patterns and quantifies linkages. Having clearly demonstrated the regime classification and SI to be effective in an environment where the hydroclimatology is relatively well known, there appears to be much to gain from applying these techniques in parts of the world where patterns and associations between climate and hydrology are poorly understood. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling spatio-temporal soil moisture dynamics in mountain tundra

Soil moisture has a fundamental influence on the processes and functions of tundra ecosystems. Yet, the local dynamics of soil moisture are often ignored, due to the lack of fine resolution, spatially extensive data. In this study, we modelled soil moisture with two mechanistic models, SpaFHy (a catchment-scale hydrological model) and JSBACH (a global land surface model), and examined the results in comparison with extensive growing-season field measurements over a mountain tundra area in northwestern Finland. Our results show that soil moisture varies considerably in the study area and this variation creates a mosaic of moisture conditions, ranging from dry ridges (growing season average 12 VWC%, Volumetric Water Content) to water-logged mires (65 VWC%). The models, particularly SpaFHy, simulated temporal soil moisture dynamics reasonably well in parts of the landscape, but both underestimated the range of variation spatially and temporally. Soil properties and topography were important drivers of spatial variation in soil moisture dynamics. By testing the applicability of two mechanistic models to predict fine-scale spatial and temporal variability in soil moisture, this study paves the way towards understanding the functioning of tundra ecosystems under climate change.     

Groundwater Storage Changes: Present Status from GRACE Observations

Satellite gravity measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) provide quantitative measurement of terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes with unprecedented accuracy. Combining GRACE-observed TWS changes and independent estimates of water change in soil and snow and surface reservoirs offers a means for estimating groundwater storage change. Since its launch in March 2002, GRACE time-variable gravity data have been successfully used to quantify long-term groundwater storage changes in different regions over the world, including northwest India, the High Plains Aquifer and the Central Valley in the USA, the North China Plain, Middle East, and southern Murray–Darling Basin in Australia, where groundwater storage has been significantly depleted in recent years (or decades). It is difficult to rely on in situ groundwater measurements for accurate quantification of large, regional-scale groundwater storage changes, especially at long timescales due to inadequate spatial and temporal coverage of in situ data and uncertainties in storage coefficients. The now nearly 13 years of GRACE gravity data provide a successful and unique complementary tool for monitoring and measuring groundwater changes on a global and regional basis. Despite the successful applications of GRACE in studying global groundwater storage change, there are still some major challenges limiting the application and interpretation of GRACE data. In this paper, we present an overview of GRACE applications in groundwater studies and discuss if and how the main challenges to using GRACE data can be addressed.     

RIVER PATTERNS AND SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL TRANSFORMATION MODES

1 INTRODUCTIONThe river pattCths and transfo~ion of the pattenes are of great significance for flood control andmanagement of navigation system. Vallous spatial and temporal modes have been reported in theprevious stUdies. These modes depend on certain controlling factors and occur with different frequencies.These factors are related to modem fluvial processes and ancient sedimentary consequences. T'hedifferent river patterns, depending on the factors, can be either observed in nature or…     

On the form of the momentum equation for shallow water models based on the generalized wave continuity equation

Nearly all generalized wave continuity (GWC)-based models utilize the velocity-based, non-conservative form of the momentum equation to obtain the depth-averaged changes in velocity. It has been hypothesized that a flux-based, conservative form of the momentum equation may improve accuracy and stability. Herein, we study the impact of the choice of dependent variable and form of the momentum equation in a GWC-based finite element shallow water model. The impact of this change on mass balance, stability, and accuracy (spatial and temporal) is rigorously assessed, first for 1D barotropic flows and then for 2D barotropic flows in a variety of basins. Both 1D and 2D results indicate that the conservative form improves mass balance on both global and local scales, with the most significant gains found in local mass balance in areas with steep bathymetry gradients. This is also the region where the conservative form shows an increase in local spatial accuracy. Taylor series analysis and numerical simulations indicate a strong correlation between local spatial truncation errors and local mass balance errors. Stability, temporal accuracy and global spatial accuracy do not show statistically significant changes between the two algorithms in both 1D and 2D studies.     

Measuring channel planform change from image time series: A generalizable,spatially distributed,probabilistic method for quantifying uncertainty

Channels change in response to natural or anthropogenic fluctuations in streamflow and/or sediment supply and measurements of channel change are critical to many river management applications. Whereas repeated field surveys are costly and time-consuming, remote sensing can be used to detect channel change at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Repeat images have been widely used to measure long-term channel change, but these measurements are only significant if the magnitude of change exceeds the uncertainty. Existing methods for characterizing uncertainty have two important limitations. First, while the use of a spatially variable image co-registration error avoids the assumption that errors are spatially uniform, this type of error, as originally formulated, can only be applied to linear channel adjustments, which provide less information on channel change than polygons of erosion and deposition. Second, previous methods use a level-of-detection (LoD) threshold to remove non-significant measurements, which is problematic because real changes that occurred but were smaller than the LoD threshold would be removed. In this study, we present a new method of quantifying uncertainty associated with channel change based on probabilistic, spatially varying estimates of co-registration error and digitization uncertainty that obviates a LoD threshold. The spatially distributed probabilistic (SDP) method can be applied to both linear channel adjustments and polygons of erosion and deposition, making this the first uncertainty method generalizable to all metrics of channel change. Using a case study from the Yampa River, Colorado, we show that the SDP method reduced the magnitude of uncertainty and enabled us to detect smaller channel changes as significant. Additionally, the distributional information provided by the SDP method allowed us to report the magnitude of channel change with an appropriate level of confidence in cases where a simple LoD approach yielded an indeterminate result. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

大同地震水氡动态图像的前兆异常特征

采用“九五”攻关提出的水氡动态图像分析方法,对二次大同５．８级地震水氡前兆异常的时空演化特征进行分析研究。简介了大同地震水氡动态图像的生成方法。研究表明,地震前震源区及周围出现水氡变化率≥０．０６的异常特征区,异常区的时间演化与地震具有“扩展－急剧扩震－地震－持续扩展－地震－收缩”的关系,且与多种异常发展的中期,中短期和短临阶段相对应,异常区的空间分布演化与震中,地质构造和地热等有密切关系。表明动     

由多台定点长水管倾斜资料构建形变场时空演化图像的初步尝试及应用

尝试利用多台定点地倾斜形变资料构建形变场时空动态演化图形的方法,对中国大陆47个定点形变台水管倾斜仪资料进行分析处理,构建了地倾斜形变场时空演化分布图像.以2001年11月14日昆仑山口西8.1级地震为例,研究了地震前后水管倾斜资料的时空演化特征.结果显示在地震前后较多台站水管倾斜仪的日均值都出现了趋势上的较大变化,东西向日均值、南北向日均值和南北向潮汐因子的空间分布也都出现了大范围的变化,而东西向M2波的潮汐因子没有出现较明显的变化.随着定点形变台站的建设和资料的积累,该方法可以构建每月或者每周形变场的变化,有望用于地震预报工作.     

Preliminary analysis of spatiotemporal pattern of global land surface water

Land surface water (LSW) is one of the most important resources for human survival and development, and it is also a main component of global water recycling. A full understanding of the spatial distribution of land surface water and a continuous measuring of its dynamics can support to diagnose the global ecosystem and environment. Based on the Global Land 30-water 2000 and Global Land 30-water 2010 products, this research analyzed the spatial distribution pattern and temporal fluctuation of land surface water under scale-levels of global, latitude and longitude, continents, and climate zones. The Global Land 30-water products were corrected the temporal inconsistency of original remotely sensed data using MODIS time-series data, and then calculated the indices such as water area, water ration and coefficient of spatial variation for further analysis. Results show that total water area of land surface is about 3.68 million km² (2010), and occupies 2.73% of land area. The spatial distribution of land surface water is extremely uneven and is gathered mainly in mid- to high-latitude area of the Northern Hemisphere and tropic area. The comparison of water ratio between 2000 and 2010 indicates the overall fluctuation is small but spatially differentiated. The Global Land 30-water products and the statistics provided the fundamental information for analyzing the spatial distribution pattern and temporal fluctuation of land surface water and diagnosing the global ecosystem and environment.     

Evaluating spatio-temporal representations in daily rainfall sequences from three stochastic multi-site weather generation approaches

Many hydrological and agricultural studies require simulations of weather variables reflecting observed spatial and temporal dependence at multiple point locations. This paper assesses three multi-site daily rainfall generators for their ability to model different spatio-temporal rainfall attributes over the study area. The approaches considered consist of a multi-site modified Markov model (MMM), a reordering method for reconstructing space–time variability, and a nonparametric k-nearest neighbour (KNN) model. Our results indicate that all the approaches reproduce adequately the observed spatio-temporal pattern of the multi-site daily rainfall. However, different techniques used to signify longer time scale observed temporal and spatial dependences in the simulated sequences, reproduce these characteristics with varying successes. While each approach comes with its own advantages and disadvantages, the MMM has an overall advantage in offering a mechanism for modelling varying orders of serial dependence at each point location, while still maintaining the observed spatial dependence with sufficient accuracy. The reordering method is simple and intuitive and produces good results. However, it is primarily driven by the reshuffling of the simulated values across realisations and therefore may not be suited in applications where data length is limited or in situations where the simulation process is governed by exogenous conditioning variables. For example, in downscaling studies where KNN and MMM can be used with confidence.     

A new approach to spatial data interpolation using higher-order statistics

Interpolation techniques for spatial data have been applied frequently in various fields of geosciences. Although most conventional interpolation methods assume that it is sufficient to use first- and second-order statistics to characterize random fields, researchers have now realized that these methods cannot always provide reliable interpolation results, since geological and environmental phenomena tend to be very complex, presenting non-Gaussian distribution and/or non-linear inter-variable relationship. This paper proposes a new approach to the interpolation of spatial data, which can be applied with great flexibility. Suitable cross-variable higher-order spatial statistics are developed to measure the spatial relationship between the random variable at an unsampled location and those in its neighbourhood. Given the computed cross-variable higher-order spatial statistics, the conditional probability density function is approximated via polynomial expansions, which is then utilized to determine the interpolated value at the unsampled location as an expectation. In addition, the uncertainty associated with the interpolation is quantified by constructing prediction intervals of interpolated values. The proposed method is applied to a mineral deposit dataset, and the results demonstrate that it outperforms kriging methods in uncertainty quantification. The introduction of the cross-variable higher-order spatial statistics noticeably improves the quality of the interpolation since it enriches the information that can be extracted from the observed data, and this benefit is substantial when working with data that are sparse or have non-trivial dependence structures.     

反演地表质量变化的附有空间约束的三维加速度点质量模型法

重力卫星可以在相同误差尺度下对全球质量变化进行连续重复观测,并在近十余年来取得了巨大成功,探索重力卫星数据精化处理方法和相关应用研究具有重要意义.本文基于三维加速度点质量模型法的基本原理,进一步发展建立了时变重力场模型球谐位系数的变化和地面点质量变化的关系,可有效考虑地表质量变化导致的负荷形变的影响;引入等权形式、线性形式、指数形式和高斯形式的空间约束方法处理南北条带噪声和向下延拓导致的病态问题,并与零阶Tikhonov正则化方法进行对比分析.采用模拟数据和一个月的实测GRACE时变重力场模型计算全球质量变化,对三维加速度点质量模型法和几种空间约束方法进行对比分析验证.计算结果表明,对于3°等面积的全球格网质量点,高斯和指数形式空间约束方法的最优相关距离约为500km,等权和线性形式空间约束方法的最优相关距离约为600km,各方法均可有效处理条带噪声的影响,四种空间约束方法的计算效果优于零阶Tikhonov正则化方法,本文的相关方法为进一步利用三维加速度点质量模型法监测全球质量变化提供了借鉴.     

Evaluation of aDcp processing options for secondary flow identification at river junctions

Secondary circulation in river confluences results in a spatial and temporal variation of fluid motion and a relatively high level of morphodynamic change. Acoustic Doppler current profiler (aDcp) vessel-mounted flow measurements are now commonly used to quantify such circulation in shallow water fluvial environments. It is well established that such quantification using vessel-mounted aDcps requires repeated survey of the same cross-section. However, less attention has been given to how to process these data. Most aDcp data processing techniques make the assumption of homogeneity between the measured radial components of velocity. As acoustic beams diverge with distance from the aDcp probe, the volume of the flow that must be assumed to be homogeneous between the beams increases. In the presence of secondary circulation cells, and where there are strong rates of shear in the flow, the homogeneity assumption may not apply, especially deeper in the water column and close to the bed. To reduce dependence on this assumption, we apply a newly-established method to aDcp data obtained for two medium-sized (~60–80 m wide) gravel-bed river confluences and compare the results with those from more conventional data processing approaches. The comparison confirms that in the presence of strong shear our method produces different results to more conventional approaches. In the absence of a third set of fully independent data, we cannot demonstrate conclusively which method is best, but our method involves less averaging and so in the presence of strong shear is likely to be more reliable. We conclude that it is wise to apply both our method and more conventional methods to identify where data analysis might be impacted upon by strong shear and where inferences of secondary circulation may need to be made more cautiously. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geospatial-temporal analysis of land-use changes in the Yellow River Delta during the last 40 years

Research on land use/land cover changes (LUCC)has been the core project of the Global EnvironmentalChanges since the 1990s[1—6]. Scientists at home andabroad have been laying emphasis on integrationstudies on land-use change by “space and process”features[7—10] as researches on LUCC are in a greatdeal. It is of paramount important for us to studyLUCC at various spatial-temporal scales and build aquantitative assessment of land-use conversion by in-tegrated spatial-temporal features. …