基于高分卫星遥感影像的地震应急滑坡编目与分布特征探讨——以2017年8月8日九寨沟7.0级地震为例

地震应急是减轻地震灾害的重要途径之一。地震应急工作具有时间紧迫、事关重大的特点。2017年8月8日四川九寨沟M_S7.0级地震发生后,为快速、准确地提供地震引发的滑坡灾害分布,本研究基于震后第一天获取到的高分辨率遥感影像（高分二号卫星影像、北京二号卫星影像）,通过人工目视解译的方法初步建立了四川九寨沟地震滑坡编目。结果表明,该地震至少触发了622处同震滑坡,分布在沿使用影像边界框定的面积为3919km2的区域内。本研究还利用这个地震滑坡编目,统计了九寨沟地震滑坡数量和滑坡点密度（LND）与地形（坡度、坡向）、地震（地震烈度、震中距）等因素的关系。结果表明九寨沟地震滑坡多发生在坡度为20°—50°的区域内,滑坡的易发性随着坡度的增加而增加。受地震波传播方向的影响,E、SE向是地震滑坡较易发生的坡向。滑坡的易发程度和地震烈度呈正相关,即随着烈度的增大,滑坡易发性增大。滑坡易发性还随着震中距增加而降低,这是由于地震波能量随震中距的增加而衰减导致的。     

The Spatial Distribution and Attribute Parameter Statistics of Landslides Triggered by the May 12th, 2008, MW7.9 Wenchuan Earthquake

A complete landslide inventory and attribute database is the importantly fundamental for the study of the earthquake-induced landslide. Substantial landslides were triggered by the M_W7.9 Wenchuan earthquake on May 12^th, 2008. Google Earth images of pre- and post-earthquakes show that 52 194 co-seismic landslides were recognized and mapped, with a total landslides area of 1 021 km².Based on the statistics,we assigned all landslide parameters and established the co-seismic landslides database, which includes area, length, and width of landslides, elevation of the scarp top and foot edge, and the top and bottom elevations of each located slope. Finally, the spatial distribution and the above attribute parameters of landslides were analyzed. The results show that the spatial distribution of the co-seismic landslides is extremely uneven. The landslides that mainly occur in a rectangular area (a width of 30 km of the hanging wall of the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault and a length of 120 km between Yingxiu and Beichuan) are obviously controlled by surface rupture, terrain, and peak ground acceleration. Meanwhile, a large number of small landslides (individual landslide area less than 10 000 m²)contribute less to the total landslides area. The number of landslides larger than 10 000 m² accounts for 38.7% of the total number of co-seismic landslides, while the area of those landslides account for 88% of the total landslides area. The 52 194 co-seismic landslides are caused by bedrock collapse that usually consists of three parts:source area, transport area, and accumulation area. However, based on the area-volume power-law relationship, the resulting regional landslide volume may be much larger than the true landslide volume if the landslide volume is calculated using the influenced area from each landslide.     

Characteristics of landslides in forests and grasslands triggered by the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake

We examined the characteristics of landslides triggered by the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (Mw = 7.0: focal depth=10.0 km) in forests and grasslands within two affected watersheds (Tokosegawa: 6.9 km² and Nigorigawa: 6.1 km²) in southwestern Japan. We identified 190 landslides using aerial photographs and analyzed their sizes by geographic information system (GIS). Field investigations were conducted to obtain landslide depth, volume and residual sediment for 38 selected landslides (21 in forests and 17 in grasslands). The minimum area of detected landslides in grasslands (400 m²) was smaller than in forests (1000 m²), probably because of reduced detectability of landslides under tree cover. The ratio of total area occupied by landslides for a given range of slope gradient in the watersheds increased from 3.2% on gentle grassland slopes (10–15°) to 15.5% on steep (>45°) slopes, whereas the maximum landslide-area ratio in forest sites (7.4%) occurred on relatively gentle slopes (25–30°). Estimated landslide volume ranged from 27 to 9622 m³, based on mean depth of each landslide measured around individual landslide scars. Moreover, the volumetric ratio of landslide deposit volume to total landslide volume exceeded 100% for 48% of the landslides within forests and 35% of the landslides within grasslands. Our findings show that land cover had extensive and recognizable effects on the characteristics of landslides and resulting in-channel sediment accumulations. Resetting sediment dynamics after earthquakes associated with different land cover distributions needs to be considered within watersheds. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial distribution analysis of landslides triggered by the 2013-04-20 Lushan earthquake,China

The 2013-04-20 Lushan earthquake(seismic magnitude Ms 7.0 according to the State Seismological Bureau)induced a large number of landslides.In this study,spatial characteristics of landslides are developed by interpreting digital aerial photography data.Seven towns near the epicenter,with an area of about 11.11 km2,were severely affected by the earthquake,and 703 landslides were identified from April 24,2013 aerial photography data over an area of 1.185 km2.About 55.56% of the landslide area was less than 1000 m2,whereas about 3.23 % was more than 10,000 m2.Rock falls and shallow landslides were the most commonly observed types in the study area,and were primarily located in the center of Lushan County.Most landslide areas were widely distributed near river channels and along roads.Five main factors were chosen to study the distribution characteristics of landslides:elevation,slope gradients,fault,geologic unit and river system.The spatial distribution of coseismal landslides is studied statistically using both landslide point density(LPD),defined as the number of landslides(LS Number)per square kilometer,and landslide area density(LAD),interpreted as the percentage of landslides area affected by earthquake.The results show that both LPD and LAD have strong positive correlations with five main factors.Most landslides occurred in the gradient range of 40°-50° and an elevation range of 1.0-1.5 km above sea level.Statistical results also indicate that landslides were mainly formed in soft rocks such as mudstone and sandstone,and concentrated in IX intensity areas.     

Spatial Distribution of Seismic Landslides in the Areas of 1927 Gulang M8.0 Earthquake

The 1927 Gulang M8.0 earthquake has triggered a huge number of landslides, resulting in massive loss of people''s life and property. However, integrated investigations and results regarding the landslides triggered by this earthquake are rare; such situation hinders the deep understanding of these landslides such as scale, extent, and distribution. With the support of Google Earth software, this study intends to finish the seismic landslides interpretation work in the areas of Gulang earthquake (VIII-XI degree) using the artificial visual interpretation method, and further analyze the spatial distribution and impact factors of these landslides. The results show that the earthquake has triggered at least 936 landslides in the VIII-XI degree zone, with a total landslide area of 58.6 km². The dense area of seismic landslides is located in the middle and southern parts of the X intensity circle. Statistical analysis shows that seismic landslides is mainly controlled by factors such as elevation, slope gradient, slope direction, strata, seismic intensity, faults and rivers. The elevation of 2 000-2 800 m is the high-incidence interval of the landslide. The landslide density is larger with a higher slope gradient. East and west directions are the dominant sliding directions. The areas with Cretaceous and Quaternary strata are the main areas of the Gulang seismic landslides. The X intensity zone triggered the most landslides. In addition, landslides often occur in regions near rivers and faults. This paper provides a scientific reference for exploring the development regularities of landslides triggered by the 1927 Gulang earthquake and effectively mitigating the landslide disasters of the earthquake.     

DATABASE OF LANDSLIDES TRIGGERED BY 2015 GORKHA(NEPAL) MW7.8 EARTHQUAKE

In this study, a detailed database of landslides triggered by the 25 April 2015 Gorkha (Nepal)M_W7.8 earthquake is constructed based on visual interpretation of pre- and post-earthquake high-resolution satellite images and field reconnaissance. Results show the earthquake triggered at least 47 200 landslides, which have a NWW direction spatial distribution, similar with the location and strike of the seismogenic fault. The landslides are of a total area about 110km² and an oval distribution area about 35 700km². On the basis of a scale relationship between landslide area (A)and volume (V), V=1.314 7×A^{1.208 5}, the total volume of the coseismic landslides is estimated to be about 9.64×10⁸m³. In the oval landslide distribution area, the landslide number density, area density, and volume density were calculated and the results are 1.32km^-2, 0.31%, and 0.027m, respectively. This study provides a detailed and objective inventory of landslides triggered by the Gorkha earthquake, which provides very important and essential basic data for study of mechanics of coseismic landslides, spatial pattern, distribution law, and hazard assessment. In addition, the landslide database related to an individual earthquake also provides an important earthquake case in a subduction zone for studying landslides related to multiple earthquakes from a global perspective.     

APPLICATION OF LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL FOR HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF EARTHQUAKE-TRIGGERED LANDSLIDES: A CASE STUDY OF 2017 JIUZHAIGOU(CHINA)MS7.0 EVENT

The M_S7.0 Jiuzhaigou earthquake in Sichuan Province of 8 August 2017 triggered a large number of landslides. A comprehensive and objective panorama of these landslides is of great significance for understanding the mechanism, intensity, spatial pattern and law of these coseismic landslides, recovery and reconstruction of earthquake affected area, as well as prevention and mitigation of landslide hazard. The main aim of this paper is to present the use of remote sensing images, GIS technology and Logistic Regression(LR)model for earthquake triggered landslide hazard mapping related to the 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquake. On the basis of a scene post-earthquake Geoeye-1 satellite image(0.5m resolution), we delineated 4834 co-seismic landslides with an area of 9.63km². The ten factors were selected as the influencing factors for earthquake triggered landslide hazard mapping of Jiuzhaigou earthquake, including elevation, slope angle, aspect, horizontal distance to fault, vertical distance to fault, distance to epicenter, distance to roads, distance to rivers, TPI index, and lithology. Both landsliding and non-landsliding samples were needed for LR model. Centroids of the 4834 initial landslide polygons were extracted for landslide samples and the 4832 non-landslide points were randomly selected from the landslide-free area. All samples(4834 landslide sites and 4832 non-landslide sites)were randomly divided into the training set(6767 samples)and validation set(2899 samples). The logistic regression model was used to carry out the landslide hazard assessment of the Jiuzhaigou earthquake and the results show that the landslide hazard assessment map based on LR model is very consistent with the actual landslide distribution. The areas of Wuhuahai-Xiamo, Huohuahai and Inter Continental Hotel of Jiuzhai-Ruyiba are high hazard areas. In order to quantitatively evaluate the prediction results, the trained model calculated with the training set was evaluated by training set and validation set as the input of the model to get the output results of the two sets. The ROC curve was used to evaluate the accuracy of the model. The ROC curve for LR model was drawn and the AUC values were calculated. The evaluation result shows good prediction accuracy. The AUC values for the training and validation data set are 0.91 and 0.89, respectively. On the whole, more than 78.5% of the landslides in the study area are concentrated in the high and extremely high hazard zones. Landslide point density and landslide area density increase very rapidly as the level of hazard increases. This paper provides a scientific reference for earthquake landslides, disaster prevention and mitigation in the earthquake area.     

21世纪初几次大地震事件触发滑坡基础数据建设

自2008年5月12日汶川MW7.9地震发生以来,针对地震滑坡与光学遥感影像的特点,制定了地震滑坡编录新原则、遥感影像选取新原则及地震滑坡属性库建立原则。文中介绍了21世纪初4次大地震事件触发滑坡基础数据建设成果:包括2008年5月12日汶川MW7.9地震,此次地震触发了至少197 481处滑坡;2010年4月14日玉树MW6.9地震至少触发2 036处滑坡;2010年1月12日海地MW7.0地震至少触发30 828处滑坡;2007年4月21日智利艾森峡湾MW6.2地震至少触发1 000处滑坡。分析了地震触发滑坡基础数据建设成果与以往研究的不同。最后从地震滑坡基础数据建设成果对地震滑坡分布规律与危险性评价的影响,对震区滑坡与泥石流防灾减灾的意义,对地震震级、活动断层运动习性、地震烈度等的反馈,对震区河流与地貌演化研究的基础意义,对全球地震震级与触发滑坡关系研究的意义等几个方面,分析了地震滑坡基础数据建设的实际应用价值与科学研究意义。     

山西大宁县典型滑坡体地貌特征与降雨和强震关系

山西大宁县位于山西省吕梁山南端，境内沟壑纵横，具有独特的黄土高原地形地貌特征。在该地区进行地质灾害调查，以查明灾害分布、形成原因和隐患情况。应用地貌学的有关原理，结合遥感影像解译，在义亭河的支流河谷两岸0.3 km²（575 m×526 m）范围内发现并确认了2个大型和2个中型滑坡体。滑坡体均为基岩与上方的黄土沉积层整体滑下，滑坡体沿河流流动的方向发生一定程度的扭转，滑面近于直立，滑动方向与河流流向一致，没有形成堰塞湖。对滑坡体与周围地貌特征，以及河道被改动的方向特征研究认为：①4个滑坡体是在不同的地质时期形成；②其中1个滑坡体明显受到一条断裂的影响；③其它3个滑坡体，可能是在河流侵蚀搬运作用加强，导致的"重力塌陷"，及河流流向作用牵引的动力学作用下，经过较漫长的时间形成；④在距离该地区约60 km的洪洞地震、临汾地震，以及距离该地区230余公里的华县地震，这三次8级地震过程中，地震应力可能加剧了滑坡体的发生或滑动；⑤未来该滑坡体，仍然可能在非常规的外界条件下，如强降雨或地震应力等的影响下，出现加速滑动的可能。     

Large landslides and their effect on sediment flux in South Westland,New Zealand

Landslides and runoff are dominant erosional agents in the tectonically active alpine South Westland area of New Zealand, characterized by high uplift rates and extreme orographic precipitation. Despite a high density of shallow debris slides and flows, the geomorphic imprints of deep‐seated bedrock failures are dominant and persistent. Over 50 large (>1 km²) landslides comprising rock slide[sol ]avalanches, complex rotational and rock‐block slides, wedge failures, and deep‐seated gravitational slope deformation were detected on air photos and shaded‐relief images. Major long‐term impacts on alpine rivers include (1) forced alluviation upstream of landslide dams, (2) occlusion of gorges and triggering of secondary riparian landslides, and (3) diversion of channels around deposits to form incised meandering gorges. Remnants of large prehistoric (i.e. pre‐1840) landslide deposits possibly represent the low‐frequency (in terms of total area affected yet dominant) end of the spectrum of mass wasting in the western Southern Alps. This is at odds with high erosion rates in an active erosional landscape. Large landslides appear to have dual roles of supplying and retaining sediment. The implications of these roles are that (1) previous models of (shallow) landslide‐derived sediment flux need to be recalibrated, and (2) geomorphic effects of earthquake‐induced landsliding may persist for at least 10² years. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mass movements caused by recent tectonic activity: The 1999 Chi-chi earthquake in central Taiwan

Abstract The Chi‐chi earthquake (M_S = 7.7), which occurred in September 1999, seriously damaged central Taiwan. Approximately 2 years later (July 2001), the Toraji typhoon brought a heavy rainstorm (650 mm rain/day) and triggered widespread landslides in central Taiwan and parts of eastern Taiwan. Approximately 10 000 Chi‐chi earthquake‐induced landslides and 6000 Toraji typhoon‐related mass movements were delineated in an area of 2400 km² using Satellite Pour l’Observation de la Terre (SPOT; French earth resource satellite) images. The landslide distribution could be closely related to the distribution of peak ground acceleration registered during the Chi‐chi earthquake. The study area was composed of Tertiary sedimentary and metamorphic rocks, whose age and induration increased eastward. The earthquake‐induced landslides were mostly distributed in the region between the Chelungpu Fault and the Lishan Fault to the east, whereas they were few in the region east of the Lishan Fault. The Toraji typhoon in 2001 severely damaged both regions that had been shattered by the Chi‐chi earthquake in 1999. The occurrence of earthquake‐induced landslides can be correlated with epicentral distance, and their occurrence has more influence from the rock type than from the ground motion.     

Hazard Assessment of Co-seismic Landslides Based on Information Value Method: A Case in 2018 MW6.6 Hokkaido Earthquake, Japan

An M_W6.6 earthquake occurred in eastern Hokkaido, Japan on September 6^th, 2018. Based on the pre-earthquake image from Google Earth and the post-earthquake image from high resolution (3 m) planet satellite, we manually interpret 9 293 coseismic landslides and select 7 influencing factors of seismic landslide, such as elevation, slope, slope direction, road distance, flow distance, peak ground acceleration (PGA) and lithology. Then, 9 293 landslide points are randomly divided into training samples and validation samples with a proportion of 7:3. In detail, the training sample has 6 505 landslide points and the validation sample has 2 788 landslide points. The hazard risk assessment of seismic landslide is conducted by using the information value method and the study area is further divided into five risk grades, including very low risk area, low risk area, moderate risk area high risk area and very high risk area. The results show that there are 7 576 landslides in high risk area and very high risk area, accounting for 81.52% of the total landslide number, and the landslide area is 22.93 km², accounting for 74.35% of the total area. The hazard zoning is in high accordance with the actual situation. The evaluation results are tested by using the curve of cumulative percentage of hazardous area and cumulative percentage of landslides number. The results show that the success rate of the information value method is 78.50% and the prediction rate is 78.43%. The evaluation results are satisfactory, indicating that the hazard risk assessment results based on information value method may provide scientific reference for landslide hazard risk assessment as well as the disaster prevention and mitigation in the study area.     

玉树地震滑坡分布调查及其特征与形成机制

2010年4月14日青海省玉树县发生了MS7.1地震.文中基于现场考察与遥感影像目视解译的方法,对玉树地震滑坡进行分析,并制作了玉树地震滑坡空间分布图.结果表明,该地震触发了约2 036处滑坡灾害,总面积约1.194km2;地震滑坡分布受主地表破裂控制作用强烈;滑坡类型多样,但以崩塌型滑坡为主;滑坡有5种成因机制:人工开挖坡脚型、地表水入渗致坡体震动滑动型、断裂错断震动型、震动型、后期冰雪融化或降雨入渗型;除地震主地表破裂外,还有许多坡体裂缝,主要分布在主地表破裂带SE端的SW盘,该部位在地震中受到了强烈的挤压作用.     

How wide is a road? The association of roads and mass-wasting in a forested montane environment

A spatial data base of 1609 landslides was analysed using a geographic information system to determine landslide frequency in relation to highways. A 126 km long transportation network in a 201 km² area of humid-tropical, mountainous, forested terrain in Puerto Rico was used in conjunction with a series of 20 buffer (disturbance) zones varying from 5 to 400 m in length, measured perpendicular to the highways. Average landslide frequency in the study area at distances greater than 85 m from roads was about six landslides per square kilometre. At distances of 85 m or less on either side of a highway, landslide frequency was about 30 landslides per square kilometre. On average, this elevated disturbance rate affected 330 m² km⁻² a⁻¹ within the 170 m swath. The mass-wasting rate outside of the disturbance zone affected 40 m² km⁻² a⁻¹. These results indicate that the rate of mass-wasting disturbance is increased from five to eight times in a 170 m wide swath along road corridors. The lateral extent of the environmental impact of roads in the study area is greater than is commonly perceived. The approach described herein demonstrates a simple method to assess the spatial association of mass-wasting with highways. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Distribution of Landslides in Baoshan City, Yunnan Province, China

Using Google Earth software as a platform, this study has established an integrated database of both old and new landslides in Baoshan City, Yunnan Province, China, and analyzed their development characteristics together with distribution rules, respectively. Based on the results, a total of 2 427 landslides occurred in the study area, including 2 144 new landslides and 283 old landslides, with a total area of about 104.8 km². The new landslides are mostly in small-scales with an area less than 10 000 m², while the area of individual old landslide is mostly larger than 10 000 m². By analyzing the relationship between the two types of landslides and eight impact factors (i.e., elevation, slope angle, slope aspect, slope position, lithology, fault, regional Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), and average annual rainfall), the different individual influencing factors, distribution regularities and mechanisms of the two types of landslides are revealed. In detail, the main influencing factors of new landslides are elevation, slope angle, slope aspect, slope position, lithology, regional PGA and average annual rainfall, while the influencing factors of old landslides are mainly elevation, slope angle, and lithology. This study provides basic data and support for landslide assessment and further disaster reduction in Baoshan City. Besides, it also provides new constraints in deeply understanding the effect of different topographic and geological conditions, historical earthquakes, rainfall and other factors on the occurrence mechanisms of both new landslides and old landslides.     

Terrain attributes of earthquake‐ and rainstorm‐induced landslides in orogenic mountain Belt,Taiwan

Landsliding induced by earthquakes and rainstorms in montane regions is not only a sculptor for shaping the landscape, but also a driver for delivering sediments and above‐ground biomass downstream. However, the terrain attributes of earthquake‐ and rainstorm‐induced landslides are less discussed comprehensively in Taiwan. As part of an island‐wide inventory, we here compare and contrast the landslide terrain attributes resulting from two catastrophic events: the Chi‐Chi earthquake (M _w = 7.6, September 1999) and typhoon Morakot (rainfall >2500 mm, August 2009). Results show that the earthquake‐induced landslides are relatively small, round‐shaped and prone to occur primarily in middle and toe of slopes. In contrast, the rainstorm‐induced landslides are larger, horseshoe‐shaped and preferentially occurring in slope toes. Also, earthquake‐induced landslides, particularly large landslides, are usually found at steeper gradients, whereas rainstorm‐induced landslides aggregate at gradients between 25° and 40°. Lithologic control plays a secondary role in landsliding. From an island‐wide perspective, high landslide density locates in the region of earthquake intensity ≥ VI or one‐day rainfall ≥600 mm day^?1. Through the landslide patterns and their terrain attributes, our retrospective approach sheds light on accessing the historical and remote events for close geophysical investigations. Finally, we should bear in mind that the landslide location, size, and terrain attributes varying with triggers may affect the landscape evaluation or biogeochemical processes in landslide‐dominated regions. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Organic carbon export in the form of wood during an extreme tropical storm,Upper Rio Chagres,Panama

Widespread, intense rainfall over the Upper Rio Chagres watershed (414 km²) in central Panama during December 2010 triggered numerous landslides that introduced large numbers of trees to the river network. We flew by helicopter along the mainstem Upper Chagres and the adjacent margins of Lake Alhajuela, into which the Upper Chagres flows, in February and June 2011. We used low‐elevation video photography from these flights to tally the number of wood pieces stored along the lake margin and within the channel, and the number of landslides reaching the mainstem. We used these tallies with ground‐verified estimates of average wood piece size and landslide surface area, and assumptions about wood density, carbon content, and aboveground biomass, to develop a first‐order estimate of carbon export in the form of wood from the Upper Chagres following the 2010 storms. Based on the wood tally, we estimate 9 · 6 to 16 Mg C/km² export, and from the landslide tally we estimate 24 Mg C/km². We believe the landslide tally provides a more accurate minimum estimate of carbon export from the Upper Chagres during the December 2010 storms. These values are an order of magnitude higher than limited data for average or background rates of wood‐based carbon export from other catchments, but two orders of magnitude lower than wood‐based carbon export during extreme storms in Taiwan. The findings suggest that duration of flood flow above a threshold for mobilizing wood within the channel network exerts a more important control on wood export from the Upper Chagres than magnitude of flood peak. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prediction of rainfall‐induced shallow landslides in the Loess Plateau,Yan'an,China, using the TRIGRS model

In this work, a transient rainfall infiltration and grid‐based regional slope‐stability model (TRIGRS) was implemented in a case study of Yan'an City, Northwest China. In this area, widespread shallow landslides were triggered by the 12 July 2013 exceptional rainstorm event. A high‐resolution DEM, soil parameters from in‐situ and laboratory measurements, water table depths, the maximum depth of precipitation infiltration and rain‐gauge‐corrected precipitation of the event, were used as inputs in the TRIGRS model. Shallow landslides triggered on the same day were used to evaluate the modeling results. The summarized results are as follows: (i) The characteristics and distribution of thirty‐five shallow landslides triggered by the 12 July 2013 rainfall event were identified in the study area and all were classified as shallow landslides with the maximum depth, area and volume less than 3 m, 200 m² and 1000 m³, respectively, (ii) Four intermediate factor of safety (F_S) maps were generated using the TRIGRS model to represent the scenarios 6, 12, 18 and 24 hours after the storm event. The area with F_S < 1 increased with the rainfall duration. The percentage of the area with F_S < 1 was 0.2%, 3.3%, 3.8% and 5.1% for the four stages, respectively. Twenty‐four hours after the rainstorm, TRIGRS predicted that 1255 grid cells failed, which is consistent with the field data. (iii) TRIGRS generated more satisfactory results at a given precipitation threshold than SINMAP, which is ideal for landslide hazard zoning for land‐use planning at the regional scale. Comparison results showed that TRIGRS is more useful for landslide prediction for a certain precipitation threshold, also in the regional scale. (iv) Analysis of the responses of loess slope prone to slope failure after different precipitation scenarios revealed that loess slopes are particularly sensitive to extended periods of heavy precipitation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of forest harvesting on the occurrence of landslides and debris flows in steep terrain of central Japan

Landslides and debris flows associated with forest harvesting can cause much destruction and the influence of the timing of harvesting on these mass wasting processes therefore needs to be assessed in order to protect aquatic ecosystems and develop improved strategies for disaster prevention. We examined the effects of forest harvesting on the frequency of landslides and debris flows in the Sanko catchment (central Japan) using nine aerial photo periods covering 1964 to 2003. These photographs showed a mosaic of different forest ages attributable to the rotational management in this area since 1912. Geology and slope gradient are rather uniformly distributed in the Sanko catchment, facilitating assessment of forest harvesting effects on mass wasting without complication of other factors. Trends of new landslides and debris flows correspond to changes in slope stability explained by root strength decay and recovery; the direct impact of clearcutting on landslide occurrence was greatest in forest stands that were clearcut 1 to 10 yr earlier with progressively lesser impacts continuing up to 25 yr after harvesting. Sediment supply rate from landslides in forests clearcut 1 to 10 yr earlier was about 10‐fold higher than in control sites. Total landslide volume in forest stands clearcut 0 to 25 yr earlier was 5·8 × 10³ m³ km^?2 compared with 1·3 × 10³ m³ km^?2 in clearcuts >25 yr, indicating a fourfold increase compared with control sites during the period when harvesting affected slope stability. Because landslide scars continue to produce sediment after initial failure, sediment supply from landslides continues for 45 yr in the Sanko catchment. To estimate the effect of forest harvesting and subsequent regeneration on the occurrence of mass wasting in other regions, changes in root strength caused by decay and recovery of roots should be investigated for various species and environmental conditions. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.