基于广义帕累托分布的地震震级分布尾部特征分析

极值理论在地震危险性分析中有着重要应用, 发震震级超过某一阈值的超出量分布可以近似为广义帕累托分布. 基于广义帕累托分布给出了若干地震活动性参数的估计公式, 包括强震震级分布、 地震复发周期和重现水平、 期望重现震级、 地震危险性概率和潜在震级上限等; 以云南地区震级资料为基础数据, 讨论了阈值选取、 模型拟合诊断和参数估计; 在此基础上计算了该地区的地震活动性参数. 结果表明, 广义帕累托分布较好地刻画了强震震级分布, 通过超阈值(POT)模型计算的复发周期与实际复发间隔统计基本一致, 高分位数估计在一定阈值范围内表现稳定, 为工程抗震中潜在震级上限的确定提供了一种途径.      

中国大陆活动地块边界带强震震级分布特征研究

本文利用基于广义帕累托分布的超阈值分布模型,对中国大陆活动地块边界带强震震级分布特征开展研究,给出了各活动地块边界带强震震级的广义帕累托分布参数估计。结果表明,广义帕累托分布较好地拟合了各边界带强震数据,形状参数估计均为负值,说明对应震级应有上限,因此广义帕累托分布为潜在震级上限提供了一种自然的刻画。在此基础上,估计了震级上限,并给出了分布0.99997高分位数估计,通过与历史最大震级比较发现,高分位数估计相对稳健。在地震发生过程为泊松过程假设下,推导了广义帕累托分布与广义极值分布之间的联系,揭示了一种利用强震数据推断最大震级分布的可能途径。     

基于POT模型的昆仑山地区地震统计特征分析

极值统计是研究较少发生但一旦发生即产生极大影响的随机事件的有效方法。本文以地震活动频繁的昆仑山地区作为研究区域,建立了基于广义帕累托分布的超阈值（POT）模型,并讨论了该地区若干地震活动性参数,包括强震震级分布、潜在震级上限、强震平均复发间隔、一定周期内的强震发震概率、一定时期内的重现水平和超定值重现震级。经统计分析得到:该地区震级阈值选定为M_S5.5,超阈值期望震级为M_S6.81,潜在震级上限高达M_S9.08,M_S8.0的平均复发间隔仅为66.8年,未来3年该地区发生M_S5.5～M_S6.5的概率在80%以上,百年重现水平即可达到历史最大震级M_S8.1。     

青藏高原东北缘地震活动性广义帕累托模型的全域敏感性分析

基于广义帕累托分布构建地震活动性模型,因其输入参数取值难以避免不确定性,导致依据该模型所得的地震危险性估计结果具有不确定性。鉴于此,本文选取青藏高原东北缘为研究区,提出了基于全域敏感性分析的地震危险性估计的不确定性分析流程和方法。首先,利用地震活动性广义帕累托模型,进行研究区地震危险性估计;然后,选取地震记录的起始时间和震级阈值作为地震活动性模型的输入参数,采用具有全域敏感性分析功能的E-FAST方法,对上述两个参数的不确定性以及两参数之间的相互作用对地震危险性估计不确定性的影响进行定量分析。结果表明:地震危险性估计结果（不同重现期的震级重现水平、震级上限及相应的置信区间）对两个输入参数中的震级阈值更为敏感;不同重现期的地震危险性估计结果对震级阈值的敏感程度不同;对不同的重现期而言,在影响地震危险性估计结果的不确定性上,两个输入参数之间存在非线性效应,且非线性效应程度不同。本文提出的不确定性分析流程和方法,可以推广应用于基于其它类型地震活动性模型的地震危险性估计不确定性分析。      

基于广义帕累托分布的马尼拉海沟俯冲带地震危险性估计

选取马尼拉海沟俯冲带作为潜源区, 基于广义帕累托分布, 通过对一定时段内超过某一阈值的震级数据进行拟合, 建立该潜源区地震危险性估计模型, 估计强震重现水平和震级上限, 并对估计结果的不确定性进行了分析, 得到马尼拉海沟俯冲带震级上限为9.0级, 10 a、 50 a、 100 a、 200 a马尼拉海沟俯冲带的震级重现水平期望值分别为7.1级、 7.6级、 7.7级、 7.9级。     

龙门山地区的地震活动性广义帕累托模型构建

利用1930—2016年龙门山地区M≥4.5历史地震目录,通过时空窗法减少余震对统计结果的影响,构建了该地区广义帕累托分布的超出量分布模型,估计了龙门山地区震级上限。结果表明:广义帕累托分布较好地拟合了龙门山地区强震数据,形状参数估计均为负值,最大震级分布存在有限上界,震级上限为8.3。     

龙门山地区地震活动性广义极值模型构建

以龙门山地区为研究区, 利用1931年至2010年历史地震数据, 时限取80年, 时间间隔取10年, 构建地震活动性广义极值模型, 估计龙门山地区震级上限和强震重现水平。 结果表明龙门山地区地震活动性广义极值模型服从具有有限上界的Weibull分布, 震级上限为8.3, 未来20年、 50年、 100年龙门山地区的强震重现水平分别为7.9、 8.1、 8.1。 起始年由1930年至1933年逐年平移, 时间间隔不变, 震级上限及强震重现水平的计算结果相差不到0.2级, 表明本文构建的龙门山地区广义极值模型具有一定程度的稳定性, 可为地震区划以及地震危险性分析研究提供参考。     

中国大陆活动地块边界带最大震级分布特征研究

中国大陆活动地块边界带是强震活动的集中带,也是地震预测研究与防灾减灾的主要目标区,而最大地震震级是描述区域地震活动性的一个基本参数,被广泛应用于地震危险性分析研究中,因此有必要开展各活动地块边界带最大震级分布特征研究.本文利用广义极值(GEV)分布对各边界带作极值统计分析,对于分布参数进行估计,比较极值分布99％分位数和b值截距法最大震级、历史最大震级,并计算各震级水平下地震平均复发周期与发震次数,探讨活动地块各边界带未来强震活动的危险性.     

巴颜喀拉地块及其周边地震危险性分析

巴颜喀拉地块及其周边因地震动活动频繁成为中国地震预测研究的重要目标区,我们利用广义极值(GEV)分布对该地区的最大震级进行了极值统计分析.本文首先对于分布参数进行估计,然后计算出重现水平、地震平均复发周期与发震概率和震级危险率等参数,并比较了GEV分布99％分位数和b值截距法最大震级、历史最大震级.最后基于Monte Carlo模拟方法验证了运用GEV分布对研究区域做极值统计分析的稳定性.经计算,该地区6.0级地震的平均复发周期为1.8年,8.0级以上巨震的复发周期仅为76.8年.百年的重现水平高达8.08级.另外,该地块未来发生5.0～7.0级地震的概率较大,说明该地块未来仍然会比较活跃.Monte Carlo模拟结果表明,利用GEV分布探讨该地块的地震危险性在一定程度上是稳定的.     

基于广义极值理论的潜在地震海啸源震级上限及强震重现水平的估计——以琉球海沟俯冲带为例

以琉球海沟俯冲带作为研究区,将广义极值理论用于估计潜在地震海啸源震级上限,首先分析了琉球海沟俯冲带的地震地质构造特征以及历史地震资料,界定潜在地震海啸源区,然后根据地震活动性特征按时间域进行分割,并提取各时间段发生的极限震级的地震样本,最后通过广义极值分布模型估计了该区域的震级上限值和强震重现水平,并对其进行了不确定性分析。     

Global distribution of coastal cliffs

Previous studies have estimated that coastal cliffs exist on about 80% of the global shoreline, but have not been validated on a global scale. This study uses two approaches to capture information on the worldwide existence and erosion of coastal cliffs: a detailed literature survey and imagery search, and a GIS-based global mapping analysis. The literature and imagery review show coastal cliffs exist in 93% of the combined recognized independent coastal states and non-independent coastal regions worldwide (total of 213 geographic units). Additionally, cliff retreat rates have been quantified in at least one location within 33% of independent coastal states and 15% of non-independent regions. The GIS-based mapping used the near-global Shuttle Radar Topography Mission 3 arc second digital elevation model and Arctic Coastal Dynamics Database to obtain near-global backshore coastal elevations at 1 km alongshore intervals comprising about 1,340,000 locations (81% of the world vector shoreline). Backshore coastal elevations were compared with the mapped distribution of European coastal cliffs to produce a model training set, and this relationship was extended globally to map the likelihood of coastal cliff locations. About 21% of the transects (17% of the world vector shoreline) were identified as mangroves and eliminated as potential cliff locations. The results were combined with estimates of cliff percentages for Greenland and Antarctica from the literature, extending the global coverage to estimate cliff occurrence across 89% of the world vector shoreline. The results suggest coastal cliffs likely exist on about 52% of the global shoreline. © 2018 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Bayesian improver of a distribution

 An estimate of a distribution obtained from a sample by any method of classical statistics may be erroneous when the sample is not representative of the population. A subjective distribution elicited from an expert may be miscalibrated when information is scanty and experience limited. The Bayesian Improver of a Distribution (BID) exploits a coherence principle and improves, in the ex ante sense, an initial estimate of a continuous distribution by using (i) the known distribution of a related variate and (ii) information about the dependence structure between the two variates. The theory of BID is developed into an applied (ABID) procedure. The ABID estimator is applicable to any continuous, monotone likelihood ratio dependent variates with arbitrary, strictly increasing marginal distributions, parametric or nonparametric; it is analytic in form and easy to implement via statistical or judgmental methods; it converges to the true distribution, provided the initial estimator does, as the sample size n→∞; it outperforms the initial estimator in the expected Kolmogorov–Smirnov distance for all n; and it offers the greatest gains when n is small – precisely when improved estimates are needed most.     

核磁共振T2分布评价岩石孔径分布的改进方法

岩芯核磁共振（NMR）T2分布和毛管压力分析数据均在一定程度上反映了岩石的孔隙结构,理论分析表明,这两组数据具有相关性.应用NMR T2分布研究岩石孔径分布，关键是在分析两者的相关性的基础上，从T2分布构造出可靠的毛管压力曲线.但以前用饱和水T2分布构造的毛管压力曲线的方法与实际毛管压力曲线匹配性差.事实上，薄膜束缚水部分的存在引起T2分布反映的孔隙空间与毛管压力曲线反映的孔隙空间有差异.本文提出一种改进方法，在消除薄膜束缚水对T2分布的贡献后，用自由水T2分布构造毛管压力曲线.应用本文方法,对24块岩芯数据自由水T2分布构造的毛管力曲线及其孔喉半径分布与隔板毛管压力分析结果进行了对比.结果表明，改进方法对于毛管压力曲线的构造精度有明显改进，从而为NMR T2分布研究孔隙结构提供了可靠的理论和方法上的支持.     

Ventifacts distribution in Qatar

This study attempts to investigate the distribution of ventifacts in Qatar. It is believed that ventifacts are confined to the areas within about 5 km of the Miocene or Mio-Pliocene Hofuf formations and the spreads of continental gravels derived from them. Three hypotheses were formulated: (1) Ventifacts in Qatar are confined to areas within about 5 km of the Hofuf formations and the spreads of continental gravels derived from them. The distribution of ventifacts within these areas varies according to the nature of the ground surface; (2) The most active ventifaction areas are where the continental gravels merge with the Eocene limestone because of the increase in saltation particle speed in these areas where bedrock or bare limestone is exposed; (3) The unit area ratio of ventifact to non-ventifact pebbles varies inversely with the total amount of pebbles. To test these hypotheses, nine land class categories were identified in the three major Hofuf formations. Line transects were carried out from randomly selected stations near the middle of the Hofuf formations. Along each transect systematic sampling was carried out at 200 m intervals. The data were processed using a WANG MVP 2200 computer with software developed for the project. It was found that ventifacts tend to concentrate on the outer edges of the continental gravels in areas of limestone outcrop and limestone pavement. Higher areas have big gravel counts and a low ratio of ventifacts while the low-lying plains have small gravel counts and a higher ratio of ventifacts. In certain areas ‘ventifact fields’ were found where the density of ventifacts was as high as 30 per m². Many of the ventifacts in these fields were buried beneath the surface suggesting that the ventifaction predates the present site conditions. Other high ventifact density areas were discovered where the ventifacts have collected in shallow depressions or hollows on the limestone plateaux. Water action has washed these ventifacts, a high proportion of which are dreikanters, into the hollows, where they have been partially buried in fine alluvial silts. These ‘ventifact graveyards’ are generally only a few metres wide but contain large numbers of fine specimens.     

Epicentral distribution in 2007

For showing the epicentral distribution in and near China as well as all over the world,two epicentral maps for the earthquakes occurred last year are published annually in the 6-th issue     

Alternative PWM-estimators of the Gumbel distribution

Probability weighted moments (PWM) are widely used in hydrology for estimating parameters of statistical distributions, including the Gumbel distribution. The classical PWM-approach considers the moments β_i=E[XFⁱ] with i=0,1 for estimation of the Gumbel scale and location parameters. However, there is no reason why these probability weights (F⁰ and F¹) should provide the most efficient PWM-estimators of Gumbel parameters and quantiles. We explore an extended class of PWMs that does not impose arbitrary restrictions on the values of i. Estimation based on the extended class of PWMs is called the generalized method of probability weighted moments (GPWM) to distinguish it from the classical procedure. In fact, our investigation demonstrates that it may be advantage to use weight functions that are not of the form Fⁱ. We propose an alternative PWM-estimator of the Gumbel distribution that maintains the computational simplicity of the classical PWM method, but provides slightly more accurate quantile estimates in terms of mean square error of estimation. A simple empirical formula for the standard error of the proposed quantile estimator is presented.     

Spatial distribution of near-fault ground motion

Introduction In order to explain severe damage of structures and ground surface near earthquake fault, many theoretical and numerical methods have been developed to study strong ground motion near the fault (Somerville, 1998) via the kinematic and dynamic source models. Moreover, a great number of valuable strong ground motion records, especially near the fault, have been acquired in recent years. These valuable records provide useful data for improving simulation approaches. Based on those r…     

Symmetry distribution of cities in China

The authors of this paper induced five principles of geographical symmetry based on the space distributions of cities and towns in China. There is a symmetry distribution of cities and towns. The symmetry characteristics are the following: (i) the average coordination number of the cities (including large cities, medium cities and county towns) is 6 (i.g. rotation symmetry); (ii) the distribution of large and medium cities are shown to be the latticework in which two directions are parallel to two main tectonic ones in China, respectively; (iii) the distribution of county towns of a province is also shown to be the latticework in which two directions are parallel to two tectonic ones in this province (i. g. two-dimensional translation) and (iv) the concentric circle distribution of cities (CCDC) is centered round a large city (i. g. rotation symmetry).