基于DEA分析的生命线网络节点抗灾相对可靠度评估

对于生命线工程网络系统而言,合理分析和评估其带有网络特征的节点可靠度,比只研究单体可靠度更具实际意义。基于数据包络分析法（Data Envelopment Analysis,DEA）有效性分析的思想,提出了生命线网络节点抗灾相对可靠度的概念。从生命线工程在灾害环境下着重体现出的系统性和网络性出发,考察网络中的节点所能实现的资源供给功能与其所在网络中的空间结构重要性是否匹配,即功能性相对于结构性的可靠度。选择节点资源实际需求量和管内水压作为DEA有效性分析的输入参数,结构重要性作为输出参数,并用网络中介中心性评价结构重要性,获得相应参数。通过实例分析,得出实例工程网络中各节点相应的DEA有效性分析结果,即相对可靠度,并通过对参数的权系数调整,得到了使非有效单元变为有效单元的调整值。该调整值可供优化及改进工程网络的技术性调整方案参考,相对可靠度也可作为评价工程网络系统性能的有益补充。     

生命线工程震害对策的网络分析

利用网络分析法研究生命线工程的震害对策,找出已建城市生命线网络系统抗震加固的最优决策方案,以求用最小的投入达到最佳的减灾效益。     

生命线工程网络结构可靠性分析

生命线工程网络是一种复杂的网络结构。采用具叶斯因式分解法和布尔代数中加法形展开定理，计算了生命线工程发生震害时网络结构的可靠度。利用这两种方法进行网络结构可靠性分析，可以使计算工作量大大减少，本文还采用Ｔｒｕｅ ＢＡＳＩＣ语言开发了一套功能完善的生命线工程网络可靠性分析软件。     

生命线网络抗震可靠度的一般算法

针对生命线工程中所特有的顶点失效问题和失效相关性问题，本文提出了其网络可靠性分析的一般计算方法。     

生命线工程网络可靠性分析的一种简化方法

应用概率论分析生命线工程网络的可靠度常遇到工作量太大和计算机时太多的困难。本文提出一个简化方法,采用了布尔代数中的展开定理分析网络可靠度,并用此法解了一些较复杂的网络,证明此法是可行的。     

生命线地震工程中的几个基本问题

本文提出了生命线工程系统的抗震设计准则,对生命线工程系统的可靠性进行了讨论,给出了一种地下管网系统可靠性分析的方法。文中提出了一种生命线工程系统受灾程度的定量分析方法。最后还建立了一个计算生命线工程系统直接经济损失和第一次间接经济损失的分析模型。     

震害预测中生命线工程网络的图形简化

震害预测中生命线工程系统网络的图形简化最重要的是选择有工程意义的预测对象。由于生命线工程系统网络图的简化规则和形成图方法不同，简化的图形可以归为两类：一类是“物理图”；一类是“线形图”。     

生命线工程网络抗震可靠性算法研究

现代城市的迅速发展对生命线工程系统依赖性逐渐增强。地震后生命线工程系统的性能直接决定了灾后生活和生产的恢复以及抢险工作的进行,因此对生命线工程系统进行地震作用下的可靠性分析具有十分重要的意义。本文中主要介绍2种求解大型网络抗震可靠度算法———最小路递推分解算法和最小割递推分解算法。在此基础上,利用这2种算法对沈阳市供气系统进行了分析。研究结果表明,合理选择使用这2种算法可以有效的进行不同地震烈度条件下的大型生命线工程系统的可靠性分析。     

增强防震减灾意识做好生命线工程的震害防御与抗震设防工作

阐述了做好生命线工程的震害防御与抗震设防工作的重要意义，提出了对生命线工程建设的若干建议。     

生命线网络可靠度分析的改进最小路递推分解算法

在生命线网络最小路递推分解算法的基础上,充分利用分解过程中的信息,采用合并节点的方法,快速降低分解出来子网的复杂程度,从而达到大幅度减少分解出来的不交最小路(割)数量和提高计算效率的目的.计算实例分析表明,与最小路递推分解算法相比,改进算法能更为高效地给出网络可靠度,是一种有效的生命线工程网络抗震可靠性分析工具.     

Seismic fragility of reinforced concrete girder bridges using Bayesian belief network

Infrastructure owners and operators, or governmental agencies, need rapid screening tools to prioritize detailed risk assessment and retrofit resources allocation. This paper provides one such tool, for use by highway administrations, based on Bayesian belief network (BBN) and aimed at replacing so‐called generic or typological seismic fragility functions for reinforced concrete girder bridges. Resources for detailed assessments should be allocated to bridges with highest consequence of damage, for which site hazard, bridge fragility, and traffic data are needed. The proposed BBN based model is used to quantify seismic fragility of bridges based on data that can be obtained by visual inspection and engineering drawings. Results show that the predicted fragilities are of sufficient accuracy for establishing relative ranking and prioritizing. While the actual data and seismic hazard employed to train the network (establishing conditional probability tables) refer to the Italian bridge stock, the network structure and engineering judgment can easily be adopted for bridges in different geographical locations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

走滑型断层地表永久位移预测模型研究

论述了断层地表永久位移概率地震危险性分析方法的发展过程和应用现状,指出了断层地表破裂预测模型研究的意义。根据我国最近的活动断层地表破裂震后调查结果,基于走滑型断层地表破裂数据,拟合了地表破裂预测模型。采用地震活动性模型和地表破裂预测模型,计算了则木河断裂地表迹线上的永久位移危险性曲线,对预测模型在工程场地地震危险性分析中的应用,提出了建议。     

Seismic Hazard Assessment: Issues and Alternatives

Seismic hazard and risk are two very important concepts in engineering design and other policy considerations. Although seismic hazard and risk have often been used interchangeably, they are fundamentally different. Furthermore, seismic risk is more important in engineering design and other policy considerations. Seismic hazard assessment is an effort by earth scientists to quantify seismic hazard and its associated uncertainty in time and space and to provide seismic hazard estimates for seismic risk assessment and other applications. Although seismic hazard assessment is more a scientific issue, it deserves special attention because of its significant implication to society. Two approaches, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA), are commonly used for seismic hazard assessment. Although PSHA has been proclaimed as the best approach for seismic hazard assessment, it is scientifically flawed (i.e., the physics and mathematics that PSHA is based on are not valid). Use of PSHA could lead to either unsafe or overly conservative engineering design or public policy, each of which has dire consequences to society. On the other hand, DSHA is a viable approach for seismic hazard assessment even though it has been labeled as unreliable. The biggest drawback of DSHA is that the temporal characteristics (i.e., earthquake frequency of occurrence and the associated uncertainty) are often neglected. An alternative, seismic hazard analysis (SHA), utilizes earthquake science and statistics directly and provides a seismic hazard estimate that can be readily used for seismic risk assessment and other applications.     

Seismic reliability assessment of a steel moment-resisting frame with two different ductility levels using a cloud analysis approach

A cloud method for generating percentile engineering demand parameter versus intensity measure(EDP-IM) curves of a structure subjected to a set of synthetic ground motions is presented. To this end, an ensemble of synthetic ground motions based on available real ones is generated. This is done by using attenuation relationships, duration and suitable Gutenberg-Richter relations attributed to the considered seismic hazard at a given site by estimating a suitable distribution of magnitude and site to source distance. The study aims to clarify the significance of the duration and frequency content on the seismic performance of structures, which were not considered in developing percentile incremental dynamic analysis(IDA) curves. The collapse probabilities of two steel moment-resisting frames with different ductility levels generated by IDA and the proposed cloud method are compared at different intensity levels. When compared with conventional IDA, the suggested cloud analysis(SCA) methodology with the same run number of dynamic analyses was able to develop response hazard curves that were more consistent with site-specific seismic hazards. Eliminating the need to find many real records by generating synthetic records consistent with site-specific seismic hazards from a few available recorded ground motions is another advantage of using this scheme over the IDA method..     

地震CT勘探在昆石公路隧道病害诊断中的应用

地震CT是一种新的地球物理方法。具有分辨率高、可靠性强、信息量大、图象直观的特点，可以广泛地用于线路、场地、隧道、边坡等项目的工程地质勘查和病害诊断。在昆石高速公路清水沟2号隧道的地质病害整治中应用地震CT进行勘探，取得了良好的效果。     

Hazard distribution and risk assessment in the network systems

In the age when transport flows in the railway and road systems, information flows in the internet channels, etc. intensify, hazard distribution in the network systems becomes a more relevant and important issue. In the paper various theoretical hazard type distributions in the network systems are analysed. Conditions and assumptions that hazard in the network system cells would settle and became steady are defined. Cases are analysed, when hazard is initiated in one or several network nodes, while in other nodes hazard is decreased, i.e. they have immunity to the hazard. In all cases hazard distribution equilibrium equations are constructed and their solutions‘ existence conditions are defined. Theoretical results are illustrated by simulation of hazard fuel transportation in the Lithuanian roads. It is shown that using this methodology it is possible to construct an algorithm, which enables to operate and decrease fuel transportation hazard and risk. The novelty of the work is associated with employing Markov process to describe hazard distribution mechanism and to determine limited hazard distribution in the nodes of networks. The hazard of tank trucks in the network of Lithuanian roads has been assessed for the first time.     

结构抗震性能评估的动测方法研究

本文通过对工程结构，特别是高层建筑的动力特性参数的现场实测，结合已有的室内、室外强度、抗震承载力实验结果，为工程结构抗震性能及使用安全性的判定提供一套简便实用的方法，继而为震害预测、抗震设计、抗震加固、房屋安全鉴定等提供较客观的依据。     

场地地震动水平/竖向谱比与地表/基底谱比差异及修正水平/竖向谱比法研究

局部场地条件是决定场地地震动强度和频谱的重要因素，基于强震动和脉动记录的统计分析，获取表征场地条件影响的特征参数已成为确定工程场地设计地震动的较经济和实用方法，特别是对于大范围或难以开展现场勘测的工程场地。利用日本KiK-net台网强震动记录计算分析了台站场地地震动水平/竖向谱比（HVSR）与地表/基底谱比（SBSR）的差异，揭示SBSR/HVSR与HVSR呈对数线性分布的统计特征，并给出其定量关系，据此提出表征场地对地震动影响的修正水平/竖向谱比法。修正水平/竖向谱比法具有仅需地表观测记录的优势，并进一步考虑了场地竖向地震效应对水平/竖向谱比法精度的影响，更能合理地表征场地对地震动的影响。