由模拟波面统计分析波高－周期联合分布

阐述以实测或拟合海浪谱为靶谱，用等能量分割法作波面数值模拟，从而利用模拟波面统计分析波高（Ｈ）－周期（Ｔ）联合分布。对波候的Ｈ－Ｔ联合分布、长时段海浪连续记录的Ｈ－Ｔ联合分布以及风浪、涌浪和混合浪的Ｈ－Ｔ联合分布进行了讨论。结果表明，只要已知特征波高和周期，就可反演出模拟波面，进而估测Ｈ－Ｔ联合分布情况，这对了解与各种特征波高对应的周期问题及在海洋工程应用上有一定的参考意义。     

海滩修复工程影响下的低能海岸波浪能量时空分布特征研究

本研究基于第三代海浪模式SWAN(Simulating Wave Nearshore),对茅尾海及其邻近海域波浪场进行了为期la的数值模拟,利用实测资料验证了该模型的可靠性.根据模型计算结果分析了茅尾海海域波浪要素的时空分布特征,在此基础上进一步探讨了波浪能量的输入耗散过程以及海滩修复对波浪能量空间分布的影响.研究发现...     

风浪周期分布与谱宽度的关系

本文通过分析实验室风浪周期分布,发现风浪周期累积概率分布曲线低于Longuet-Higgins理论结果,在小概率周期区域实验结果与理论结果的差异明显。对实验结果进一步分析发现,在谱不是很窄时,在小概率处风浪周期累积概率随谱宽度的增大而降低,这与窄谱假定下的理论结果相反,Longuet-Higgins理论结果在小概率处不便于描述周期分布随谱宽度的变化。根据实验结果提出风浪周期的Weibull分布经验公式,Weibull分布中的参数依赖于谱宽度。     

Return period and risk calculations for ocean wave energy applications

The statistical behavior of wave energy at a site strongly depends on the wave characteristics. Wave energy converters fail to produce energy when there are no sufficiently available wave heights. Hence, evaluation of return periods and risk values of the minimum wave height becomes important for wave energy studies. A time index representing the minimum wave height is proposed here for ocean wave applications. Persistence plays a significant role in the calculation of return period and risk. Although ignoring the serial independence makes calculations easy, it leads to overestimations of the real status. In this paper, return periods and risk values are compared with each other by taking into consideration independent and dependent situations. Application of the study is achieved for the stations located in the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico.     

Wave Energy Estimation by Using A Statistical Analysis and Wave Buoy Data near the Southern Caspian Sea

Statistical analysis was done on simultaneous wave and wind using data recorded by discus-shape wave buoy. The area is located in the southern Caspian Sea near the Anzali Port. Recorded wave data were obtained through directional spectrum wave analysis. Recorded wind direction and wind speed were obtained through the related time series as well. For 12-month measurements(May 25 2007-2008), statistical calculations were done to specify the value of nonlinear auto-correlation of wave and wind using the probability distribution function of wave characteristics and statistical analysis in various time periods. The paper also presents and analyzes the amount of wave energy for the area mentioned on the basis of available database. Analyses showed a suitable comparison between the amounts of wave energy in different seasons. As a result, the best period for the largest amount of wave energy was known. Results showed that in the research period, the mean wave and wind auto correlation were about three hours. Among the probability distribution functions, i.e Weibull, Normal, Lognormal and Rayleigh, "Weibull" had the best consistency with experimental distribution function shown in different diagrams for each season. Results also showed that the mean wave energy in the research period was about 49.88 k W/m and the maximum density of wave energy was found in February and March, 2010.     

Estimation of Design Wave Heights for Coastal Sea Areas

Based on historical wind fields in the Bohai Sea,a sequence of annual extremal wave heightsis produced with numerical wave models for deep-water and shallow water.The design wave heights withdifferent return periods for the nearest deep-water point and for the shallow water point are estimated onthe basis of P-Ⅲ type,Weibull distribution,and Gumbel distribution;and the corresponding values for theshallow water point are also estimated based on the HISWA model with the input of design wave heightsfor the nearest deep-water point.Comparisons between design wave heights for the shallow water point es-timated on the basis of both distribution functions are HISWA model show that the results from differentdistribution functions scatter considerably,and influenced strongly by return periods;however,the resultsfrom the HISWA model are convergent,that is,the influence of the design wave heights estimated with dif-ferent distribution functions for deep water is weakened,and the estimated values decrease for long     

Non-stationary extreme value models to account for trends and shifts in the extreme wave climate due to climate change

The extreme values of wave climate data are of great interest in a number of different ocean engineering applications, including the design and operation of ships and offshore structures, marine energy generation, aquaculture and coastal installations. Typically, the return values of certain met-ocean parameters such as significant wave height are of particular importance. There exist many methods for estimating such return values, including the initial distribution approach, the block maxima approach and the peaks-over threshold approach. In a climate change perspective, projections of such return values to a future climate are of great importance for risk management and adaptation purposes. However, many approaches to extreme value modelling assume stationary conditions and it is not straightforward how to include non-stationarity of the extremes due to for example climate change. In this paper, various non-stationary GEV-models for significant wave height are developed that account for trends and shifts in the extreme wave climate due to climate change. These models are fitted to block maxima in a particular set of wave data obtained for a historical control period and two future projections for a future period corresponding to different emission scenarios. These models are used to investigate whether there are trends in the data within each period that influence the extreme value analysis and need to be taken into account. Moreover, it will be investigated whether there are significant inter-period shifts or trends in the extreme wave climate from the historical period to the future periods. The results from this study suggest that the intra-period trends are not statistically significant and that it might be reasonable to ignore these in extreme value analyses within each period. However, when it comes to comparing the different data sets, i.e. the historical period and the future projections, statistical significant inter-period changes are detected. Hence, the accumulated effect of a climatic trend may not be negligible over longer time periods. Interestingly enough, such statistically significant shifts are not detected if stationary extreme value models are fitted to each period separately. Therefore, the non-stationary extreme value models with inter-period shifts in the parameters are proposed as an alternative for extreme value modelling in a climate change perspective, in situations where historical data and future projections are available.     

PROBABILITY CHARACTERISTICS OF WAVE AND WAVE PRESSURES IN FRONT OF VERTICAL BREAKWATER

The distribution of wave height in front of a vertical breakwater, the range of wave pressure fluctuation at different subsurface levels, and the wave periods have shown that they are practically invariable with depth and can be determined theoretically. The distribution of crest and trough of total pressures is the same as that of wave height. As far as different subsurface levels are concerned, the spectral constitution of wave pressure field and the regularity of attenuation of spectral components are analyzed at the vertical breakwater, and a new expression describing the equilibrium range of wave pressure spectrum obtained.     

黄河口海域特征波浪要素比的分析

本文利用黄河口海域的风浪观测资料用统计方法分析了波浪要素的特征比,在统计意义下得到了不同波要素之间的比值关系和它们之间的相关关系。从比值关系看,它们的比值分散在一定的数值范围内。从相关关系看,特征波高之间的相关性较特征波周期之间的相关性好一些。特征波高之间的相关系数都大于０９;特征波周期之间的相关系数都大于０６。平均波高和平均周期的平方之间的比例系数为００３３８,大于石臼海区得到的结果,与“海洋水文规范”中规定的数字较接近     

基于非对称Archimedean Copula的三变量风浪重现水平分析

采用非对称Archimedean Copula函数与Kendall分布函数分析极端波况下的波高、周期和风速三变量联合概率分布与风险率及其设计分位数,为海岸海洋工程设计和风险评估提供参考依据。以粤东汕尾海域的实测风浪数据为例,使用非对称Gumbel-Hougaard Copula函数计算三变量风浪联合分布的"或"重现期、"且"重现期和二次重现期及其最可能的风浪设计值。主要结论如下:对比不同设计风浪重现期显示,"或"重现期的风险率偏高,"且"重现期的风险率偏低,二次重现期更准确地反映了特定设计频率情况下三变量风浪的风险率;按目前有关规范设计要求的单变量风浪要素设计值已经达到安全标准,按三变量"或"重现期和三变量同频率设计值推算的风浪设计值偏高,以最大可能概率推算的三变量风浪要素的二次重现期设计值可为相关工程安全与风险管理提供新的选择。