Evaluation of micro-behavior of strain field in Chinese mainland with the GPS time series

Introduction In the last 20 years, with observation technique development in space monitoring to Earth, a large progress has been made in monitoring crustal movement. This makes it possible for us to study crustal movement and the present geodynamic. Continuous GPS observation conducted in Chinese mainland and its neighboring region provides us for studying the present strain field of crustal micro-behavior tectonic. Crustal micro-behavior tectonic means that we can study the dif-ference bet…     

Impact of climatic change on river discharge in the driest region of Poland

Abstract

Discharge in the Warta River in Poland has been analysed based on long series of measurements at the Gorzów Wielkopolski gauge station (covering the whole catchment area) and at Poznań (middle and upper catchment area), and the Note? River is characterized by the gauge station at Nowe Drezdenko. The annual mean discharge of the Warta River for the period 1981–2010 was equal to the average value for the last 163 years (209 m³ s^-1), and there was no significant change in comparison with the ratio of runoff in the summer and winter half-years. In the driest region of Poland, the climate has been described on the basis of precipitation and air temperature. The annual mean precipitation for 1981–2010 (544 mm) in the Warta River catchment area was the same as that for the period 1848–2010. The precipitation has been increasing in spring and winter, and decreasing in summer. There is a positive and very significant correlation (r = 0.705) between the annual discharge and annual precipitation totals. The annual mean air temperature has risen by 0.6°C between the periods 1848–1980 and 1981–2010.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Ilnicki, P., Farat, R., Górecki, K., and Lewandowski, P., 2014. Impact of climatic change on river discharge in the driest region of Poland. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (6), 1117–1134. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.831979     

Study of seasonal variability and heat budget of the East Australian Current using two eddy-resolving ocean circulation models

Two mutually exclusive ocean models, Ocean general circulation model for the Earth Simulator (OFES) and the Bluelink ReANalysis (version 2.1; BRAN2.1), and the spin-up model (SPINUP4) of BRAN2.1 were used to investigate seasonal variability of the East Australian Current (EAC). These model outputs were tested against satellite and in situ data. The seasonally averaged sea surface temperature (SST) in the OFES and SPINUP4 shows a negative bias of 1 °C. However, the OFES, SPINUP4, and BRAN2.1 have a similar seasonal cycle in SST. The annual mean EAC transport computed at 28°S from the three models shows a good agreement with annual mean transport computed using the in situ data. However, they have considerable differences in terms of annual cycle. A better performance of the BRAN2.1 in simulating the temperature field is a result of data assimilation. The advection of heat across the open boundaries contributes ～50 % of the heat content change in the region. This study suggests that the advection by the EAC plays a significant role in heat content change of the region.     

Some aspects of the hydroclimatology of the Quesnel River Basin,British Columbia,Canada

In conjunction with available climate data, surface runoff is investigated at 12 gauges in the Quesnel watershed of British Columbia to develop its long‐term (1926–2004) hydroclimatology. At Quesnel itself, annual mean values of air temperature, precipitation and runoff are 4·6 °C, 517 and 648 mm, respectively. Climate data reveal increases in precipitation, no significant trend in mean annual air temperature, but an increasing trend in mean minimum temperatures that is greatest in winter. There is some evidence of decreases in winter snow depth. On the water year scale (October–September), a strong positive correlation is found between discharge and precipitation (r = 0·70, p < 0·01) and a weak negative correlation is found between precipitation and temperature (r = ? 0·36, p < 0·01). Long‐term trends using the Mann‐Kendall test indicate increasing annual discharge amounts that vary from 8 to 14% (12% for the Quesnel River, p = 0·03), and also a tendency toward an earlier spring freshet. River runoff increases at a rate of 1·26 mm yr^?1 m^?1 of elevation from west to east along the strong elevation gradient in the basin. Discharge, temperature and precipitation are correlated with the large‐scale climate indices of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El‐Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of temperature trends over India / Evaluation de tendances de température en Inde

Abstract

Abstract The impact of climate change is projected to have different effects within and between countries. Information about such change is required at global, regional and basin scales for a variety of purposes. An investigation was carried out to identify trends in temperature time series of 125 stations distributed over the whole of India. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was applied to detect monotonic trends in annual average and seasonal temperatures. Three variables related to temperature, viz. mean, mean maximum and mean minimum, were considered for analysis on both an annual and a seasonal basis. Each year was divided into four principal seasons, viz. winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon. The percentages of significant trends obtained for each parameter in the different seasons are presented. Temperature anomalies are plotted, and it is observed that annual mean temperature, mean maximum temperature and mean minimum temperature have increased at the rate of 0.42, 0.92 and 0.09°C (100 year)^-1, respectively. On a regional basis, stations of southern and western India show a rising trend of 1.06 and 0.36°C (100 year)^-1, respectively, while stations of the north Indian plains show a falling trend of –0.38°C (100 year)^-1. The seasonal mean temperature has increased by 0.94°C (100 year)^-1 for the post-monsoon season and by 1.1°C (100 year)^-1 for the winter season.     

Comparative application of two mathematical models to predict sedimentation in Yermasoyia Reservoir,Cyprus

The Yermasoyia Reservoir is located northeast of the town of Limassol, Cyprus. The storage capacity of the reservoir is 13·6 × 10⁶ m³. The basin area of the Yermasoyia River, which feeds the reservoir, totals 122·5 km². This study aims to estimate the mean annual deposition amount in the reservoir, which originates from the corresponding basin. For the estimate of the mean annual sediment inflow into the reservoir, two mathematical models are used alternatively. Each model consists of three submodels: a rainfall‐runoff submodel, a soil erosion submodel and a sediment transport submodel for streams. In the first model, the potential evapotranspiration is estimated for the rainfall‐runoff submodel, and the soil erosion submodel of Schmidt and the sediment transport submodel of Yang are used. In the second model, the actual evapotranspiration is estimated for the rainfall‐runoff submodel, and the soil erosion submodel of Poesen and the sediment transport submodel of Van Rijn are used. The deposition amount in the reservoir is estimated by means of the diagram of Brune, which delivers the trap efficiency of the reservoir. Daily rainfall data from three rainfall stations, and daily values of air temperature, relative air humidity and sunlight hours from a meteorological station for four years (1986–89) were available. The computed annual runoff volumes and mean annual soil erosion rate are compared with the respective measurement data. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Distribution and changes of active layer thickness (ALT) and soil temperature (TTOP) in the source area of the Yellow River using the GIPL model

Active layer thickness (ALT) is critical to the understanding of the surface energy balance, hydrological cycles, plant growth, and cold region engineering projects in permafrost regions. The temperature at the bottom of the active layer, a boundary layer between the equilibrium thermal state (in permafrost below) and transient thermal state (in the atmosphere and surface canopies above), is an important parameter to reflect the existence and thermal stability of permafrost. In this study, the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Model (GIPL) was used to model the spatial distribution of and changes in ALT and soil temperature in the Source Area of the Yellow River (SAYR), where continuous, discontinuous, and sporadic permafrost coexists with seasonally frozen ground. Monthly air temperatures downscaled from the CRU TS3.0 datasets, monthly snow depth derived from the passive microwave remote-sensing data SMMR and SSM/I, and vegetation patterns and soil properties at scale of 1:1000000 were used as input data after modified with GIS techniques. The model validation was carried out carefully with ALT in the SAYR has significantly increased from 1.8 m in 1980 to 2.4 m in 2006 at an average rate of 2.2 cm yr^?1. The mean annual temperature at the bottom of the active layer, or temperature at the top of permafrost (TTOP) rose substantially from ?1.1°C in 1980 to ?0.6°C in 2006 at an average rate of 0.018°C yr^?1. The increasing rate of the ALT and TTOP has accelerated since 2000. Regional warming and degradation of permafrost has also occurred, and the changes in the areal extent of regions with a sub-zero TTOP shrank from 2.4×10⁴ to 2.2×10⁴ km² at an average rate of 74 km² yr^?1. Changes of ALT and temperature have adversely affected the environmental stability in the SAYR.     

Hydro‐climatic variability and trends in Washington State for the last 50 years

Historical records of monthly streamflow and precipitation coupled with mean, minimum, and maximum air temperatures for Washington State were used to study the variation and the trend characteristics that occurred over the last 50 years (1952–2002). Results indicate that the 1967 statewide water resource assessment needs to be updated because all of the stations used in that study exhibited a decreasing trend in annual streamflow ranging from ?0·9% to ?49·3%, with an arithmetic mean of ?11·7% and a median value of ?9·8%. Furthermore, a slightly decreasing trend in annual streamflow, although not statistically significant, was detected. The decreasing streamflow magnitude was about ?1·178 mm year^?2, or 4·88 m³ s^?1 year^?1, which caused a decrease in annual streamflow in the state of about 58·9 mm, or 244 m³ s^?1. This magnitude was about 9·6% of the average annual streamflow for the entire state from 1952 to 2002. Contrastingly, the overall annual precipitation in the entire state increased 1·375 mm year^?2. Overall the annual means of daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperature increased by 0·122, 0·048, and 0·185 °C/10 years, respectively, during the study period. Thus the corresponding annual means of daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures increased by 0·61, 0·24, and 0·93 °C, respectively. All of these trends and magnitudes were found to vary considerably from station to station and month to month. The possible reasons resulting in these detected trends include, but are not limited to, human activities, climate variability and changes, and land use and land cover changes. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tectonophysics and recent geodynamics

Important problems of tectonophysical analysis of observational results in recent geodynamics are considered. The paradox of low rates of recent horizontal deformations of the Earth’s surface is formulated. This paradox states that, according to GPS measurements, the annual mean rates of relative deformations are 10⁻⁹–10⁻¹⁰ per year, whereas, according to ground-based geodetic and deformographic observations, the rates of recent horizontal deformations of the Earth’s surface are on the order of 10⁻⁵–10⁻⁶ per year. This paradox is shown to appear as a result of the application of the procedure of averaging to the displacements obtained on large measuring bases with a low degree of details of the time of observations. It is established that, according to multiyear (over 40 years) data, the annual mean rate of deformation processes in the Kopet Dagh seismically active region is 4 × 10⁻⁸ per annum along the vertical and 3.2 × 10⁻⁸ per year along the horizontal.     

Oxygen isotope measurements of phosphate from fish teeth and bones

In situ measurements of lunar surface brightness temperatures made as a part of the Apollo Lunar Surface Experiments Package at the Apollo 15 Hadley Rille landing site are reported. Data derived from 5 thermocouples of the Heat Flow Experiment, which are lying on or just above the surface, are used to examine the thermal properties of the upper 15 cm of the lunar regolith using eclipse and nighttime cool-down temperatures. Application of finite-difference techniques in modeling the lunar soil shows the thermocouple data are best fit by a model consisting of a low-density and low-thermal conductivity surface layer approximately 2 cm thick overlying a region increasing in conductivity and density with depth. Conductivities on the order of 1 × 10^?5 W/cm-°K are postulated for the upper layer, with conductivity increasing to the order of 1 × 10^?4 W/cm-°K at depths exceeding 20 cm. An increase in mean temperature with depth indicates that the ratio of radiative to conductive transfer at 350°K is 2.7 for at least the upper few centimeters of lunar soil; this value is nearly twice that measured for returned lunar fines. The thermal properties model deduced from Apollo 15 surface temperatures is consistent with earth-based microwave observations if electrical properties measured on returned lunar fines are assumed.     

The nonlinear hydro-climatic process in the Yarkand River, northwestern China

Based on the hydrologic and meteorological data in the Yarkand River Basin during 1957–2008, the nonlinear hydro-climatic process was analyzed by a comprehensive method, including the Mann–Kendall trend test, wavelet analysis, wavelet regression analysis and correlation dimension. The main findings are as following: (1) The annual runoff, annual average temperature and annual precipitation showed an increasing trend during the period of 1957–2008, and the average increase extent in runoff, temperature and precipitation was 2.234 × 10⁸ m³/10 year, 0.223 °C/10 year, and 4.453 mm/10 year, respectively. (2) The nonlinear pattern of runoff, temperature and precipitation was scale-dependent with time. In other words, the annual runoff, annual average temperature and annual precipitation at five time scales resulted in five patterns of nonlinear variations respectively. (3) Although annual runoff, annual average temperature and annual precipitation presented nonlinear variations at different time scales, the runoff has a linear correlation with the temperature and precipitation. (4) The hydro-climatic process of the Yarkand River is chaotic dynamic system, in which the correlation dimension of annual runoff, annual average temperature and annual precipitation is 3.2118, 2.999 and 2.992 respectively. None of the correlation dimensions is an integer, and it indicates that the hydro-climatic process has the fractal characteristics.     

Trends in rainfall and temperature in the Peruvian Amazon–Andes basin over the last 40 years (1965–2007)

The hydroclimatology of the Peruvian Amazon–Andes basin (PAB) which surface corresponding to 7% of the Amazon basin is still poorly documented. We propose here an extended and original analysis of the temporal evolution of monthly rainfall, mean temperature (T_mean), maximum temperature (T_max) and minimum temperature (T_min) time series over two PABs (Huallaga and Ucayali) over the last 40 years. This analysis is based on a new and more complete database that includes 77 weather stations over the 1965–2007 period, and we focus our attention on both annual and seasonal meteorological time series. A positive significant trend in mean temperature of 0.09 °C per decade is detected over the region with similar values in the Andes and rainforest when considering average data. However, a high percentage of stations with significant T_mean positive trends are located over the Andes region. Finally, changes in the mean values occurred earlier in T_max (during the 1970s) than in T_min (during the 1980s). In the PAB, there is neither trend nor mean change in rainfall during the 1965–2007 period. However, annual, summer and autumn rainfall in the southern Andes presents an important interannual variability that is associated with the sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic Ocean while there are limited relationships between rainfall and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. On the contrary, the interannual temperature variability is mainly related to ENSO events. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of transmission losses and groundwater recharge from runoff events in a wadi under shortage of data on lateral inflow,Negev, Israel

A hydrological–lithostratigraphical model was developed for assessment of transmission losses and groundwater recharge from runoff events in arid water courses where hydrological and meteorological records are incomplete. Water balance equations were established for reaches between hydrometric stations. Because rainfall and tributary flow data are scarce, lateral inflow, which is an essential component of the water balance equation, could not be estimated directly. The solution was obtained by developing a method which includes a hydrological–lithostratigraphical analogy. This is based on the following assumptions: (a) runoff resulting from a given rainfall event is related to the watershed surface lithology; (b) for a given event, the spatial distribution of runoff reflects the distribution of rainfall: and (c) transmission losses are uniquely related to the total inflow to the reach. The latter relationship, called the loss function, and the water balance equation comprise a model which simultaneously assesses lateral inflow and transmission losses for runoff events recorded at the terminal stations. The model was applied to three reaches of the arid Nahal Tsin in Israel. In this case study, the transmission losses were of the same order of magnitude as the flow at the major hydrometric stations. The losses were subdivided into channel moistening, which subsequently evaporates, and deep percolation, which recharges groundwater. For large runoff events, evaporation was substantially smaller than the losses. The mean annual recharge of groundwater from runoff events in the Tsin watershed was 4·1×10⁶ m³, while the mean annual flow volume at the major stations ranged from 0·6 to 1·5×10⁶ m³. Once in 100 years, the annual recharge may be seven times higher than the mean annual value, but the recharge during most years is very small. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

1974-2016年青海湖水面面积变化遥感监测

位于青藏高原东北部的青海湖是我国最大的咸水湖和内陆湖,也是青藏高原东北部的重要水汽源,青海湖面积的动态变化是气候和周围生态环境状况的重要体现.本研究利用长时间序列中分辨率遥感影像数据,通过人工提取湖岸水涯线信息对青海湖水面面积进行监测.结果显示：1974-2016年期间,青海湖面积总体上呈先减后增的变化趋势.2004年水面积最小,为4223.73 km²,比1974年减少253.80 km².其中1974-1987年期间面积骤减;2000 2009年期间青海湖水面面积变化幅度相对较小,平均变化幅度为6.85 km².2009-2016年7 a间,水面面积增加了128.27 km².2012年青海湖面积骤增,比2011年8月同期增加65.12 km²;同年6月和9月的面积变化为2002-2016年最大,达到59.18 km².湖东岸沙岛的湖岸线变化最为显著,1974-2004年岸线后退最大距离达4.59 km,2012年的年内最大变化距离为0.39 km.青海湖流域内降水补给增加,生态环境治理措施促使入湖河流径流量增大,是近年来湖水面积增加的主要原因.     

Assessing the effect of climate change on mean annual runoff in the Songhua River basin,China

Influences of climatic change on the components of global hydrological cycle, including runoff and evapotranspiration are significant in the mid‐ and high‐latitude basins. In this paper, the effect of climatic change on annual runoff is evaluated in a large basin—Songhua River basin which is located in the northeast of China. A method based on Budyko‐type equation is applied to separate the contributions of climatic factors to changes in annual runoff from 1960 to 2008, which are computed by multiplying their partial derivatives by the slopes of trends in climate factors. Furthermore, annual runoff changes are predicted under IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios with projections from five GCMs. The results showed that contribution of annual precipitation to annual runoff change was more significant than that of annual potential evapotranspiration in the Songhua River basin; and the factors contributing to annual potential evapotranspiration change were ranked as temperature, wind speed, vapour pressure, and sunshine duration. In the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, changes in annual runoff estimated with the GCM projections exhibited noticeable difference and ranged from ? 8·4 to ? 16·8 mm a^?1 (?5·77 to ? 11·53% of mean annual runoff). Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial distribution and temporal trends of rainfall and erosivity in the Eastern Africa region

Soil erosion by water is one of the main environmental concerns in the drought‐prone Eastern Africa region. Understanding factors such as rainfall and erosivity is therefore of utmost importance for soil erosion risk assessment and soil and water conservation planning. In this study, we evaluated the spatial distribution and temporal trends of rainfall and erosivity for the Eastern Africa region during the period 1981–2016. The precipitation concentration index, seasonality index, and modified Fournier index have been analysed using 5 × 5‐km resolution multisource rainfall product (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations). The mean annual rainfall of the region was 810 mm ranging from less than 300 mm in the lowland areas to over 1,200 mm in the highlands being influenced by orography of the Eastern Africa region. The precipitation concentration index and seasonality index revealed a spatial pattern of rainfall seasonality dependent on latitude, with a more pronounced seasonality as we go far from the equator. The modified Fournier index showed high spatial variability with about 55% of the region subject to high to very high rainfall erosivity. The mean annual R‐factor in the study region was calculated at 3,246 ± 1,895 MJ mm ha^?1 h^?1 yr^?1, implying a potentially high water erosion risk in the region. Moreover, both increasing and decreasing trends of annual rainfall and erosivity were observed but spatial variability of these trends was high. This study offers useful information for better soil erosion prediction as well as can support policy development to achieve sustainable regional environmental planning and management of soil and water resources.     

北京石花洞地区水系氢氧同位素及氚含量研究──石花洞研究系列之一

北京石花洞地区水系的δＤ平均值为（－６５．４±３．０）‰（ＳＭＯＷ），δ１８Ｏ平均值为（－９．４±０．３）‰（ＳＭＯＷ），氚含量平均值为（３０．８±４．５）ＴＵ。石花洞洞内滴水是由地表水很快下渗得来，受古老地下水的混合作用很小。因此，洞内滴水的稳定同位素组成能够灵敏地反映地表水同位素组成（即重量加权的年平均雨水的同位素组成）的变化。影响洞内滴水的稳定同位素组成的因素主要是年平均气温、年降雨量以及降水气团的来源的变化。利用高分辨率的洞穴碳酸盐的稳定同位素记录．可以建立以湿度变化为主的古气候信息．尤其是我国季风气候的变化历史     

Rates and patterns of bedrock denudation by coastal salt spray weathering: A seven-year record

Rapid surface lowering of bedrock is taking place in the supratidal zone by salt spray weathering. A seven-year run of data demonstrates a mean rate of lowering of 0·625 mm a^?1. Considerable variation exists in annual point lowering values within measurement sites, although between-site variation is not significant. Aggregate year to year variations in surface lowering are not significant. Spatial variation in individual point values may be compensated by temporal variation over an 11-year period. There is a marked summer maximum in surface lowering rate, and this is strongly correlated with monthly air temperature. Spatially and temporally episodic swelling of the rock surface is demonstrated. This does not correlate statistically with any available climatic variable and is deemed to be a real and largely stochastic phenomenon. It is interpreted as rock bursting at the granular scale due to haloclasty. The processes most likely to be responsible for the observed rapid denudation are crystallization and thermal expansion of halite, both of which are enhanced by high summer temperatures.     

“The Ekman Drain”: a conduit to the deep ocean for shelf material

A long (167 days) acoustic Doppler current profiler time series from the European continental slope west of Scotland has been analysed to investigate the influence of bathymetric steering on the slope current and the extent of down-slope transport in the bottom boundary layer. Within an interior region between the surface and bottom boundary layers, the direction of the flow is found to be remarkably consistent as required by the Taylor-Proudman theorem for geostrophic flow. The mean value of this interior flow direction is taken to be the effective direction of the bathymetry in controlling the geostrophic flow and so defines the rotation of coordinates required to determine along and cross-flow transports. Within a bottom boundary layer (BBL) of thickness ~100 m, the direction of the flow was deflected increasingly to the left with the mean veering angle ~12.5° at 12 mab and a down-slope speed of 2.6 cm s^?1. The corresponding integrated transport (the “Ekman drain”) had an average value of ~1.6 m² s^?1 over the full observation period. This down-slope flow was significantly correlated (at 0.1 % level), with the stress applied by the along-slope flow although with considerable scatter (r.m.s. ~1 m² s^?1) which suggests the influence of other forcing mechanisms. Combining the BBL volume transport with an estimate of the mean concentration of suspended particulate material indicates an annual down-slope flux of 3.0?±?0.6 tonnes m^?1 year^?1, of which ~0.36?±?0.1 tonnes m^?1 year^?1 is carbon. Biogeochemical measurements indicate that the carbon flux in the Ekman drain predominates over settlement of organic material through the water column over the slope and provides for relatively rapid delivery of material to deep water.