Risk assessment of highways affected by debris flows in Wenchuan earthquake area

Since the Wenchuan earthquake in China on May 12^th, 2008, highways in earthquake-affected areas have been frequently interrupted by debris flows. We analyzed the hazard effect modes and damage processes along highways and developed three key indexes, scale of debris flows, deposits on highways and river blockage, to describe quantitatively the highway disasters. By combining the empirical methods and the actual terrain conditions, we proposed new methods to determine the value of hazard indexes. In addition, we used the economic value and resistance of highway as vulnerability assessment indexes, then determined the specific subindexes for the subgrade, bridges and culverts, and developed a way for the quantified vulnerability zoning. Moreover, we proposed the assessment and mapping methods for highway risk. The risk is described into 5 grades: extremely low risk, low risk, middle risk, high risk and extremely high risk. We applied these methods in a case study carried out on provincial highway S303 from Yingxiu Town to Wolong Town, in Wenchuan County. Analysis of debris flow risk for the whole highway, showed that the total length of highway in extremely low risk area was 28.26 km, 4.83 km in low risk area, 8.0 km in middle risk area, 3.65 km in high risk area, and 3.06 km in extremely high risk area. The assessment results are consistent with the field survey data which reflected the disaster situation. This risk method can be used objectively to evaluate the debris-flow risk along highways, and is useful for highway reconstruction in mountainous areas suffering from active debris flows.     

Characteristics of clustering debris flows in Wenchuan earthquake zone

Clustering debris-flow events, namely many debris flows simultaneously triggered by a regional rainstorm in a large-scale mountainous area, occurred in four regions of Wenchuan earthquake stricken areas in 2008 and 2010. The characteristics of the clustering debris flows are examined with regard to triggering rainfall, formation process, and relationship with the earthquake by field survey and remote sensing interpretation. It is found that the clustering events occurred nearly at the same time with the local peak rainstorms, and the rainfall intensity-duration bottom limit line for clustering debris flows is higher than the worldwide line. It means that more rainfall is needed for the occurrence of the clustering debris flows. Four kinds of major formation processes for these debris flows are summarized： tributary-dominated, mainstream- dominated, transformation from slope failures, and mobilization or liquefaction of landslide. The four regions has a spatial correlation with the strong- quake-influenced zone with the peak ground acceleration = 0.2 g and the seismic intensity 〉 X.     

On the criteria to create a susceptibility map to debris flow at a regional scale using Flow-R

Studies on susceptibility to debris flows at regional scale(100-1000 km~2) are important for the protection and management of mountain areas. To reach this objective, routing models, mainly based on land topography, can be used to predict susceptible areas rapidly while necessitating few input data. In this research, Flow-R model is implemented to create the susceptibility map for the debris flow of the Vizze Valley(BZ, North-Eastern Italy; 134 km~2). The analysis considers the model application at local scale for three sub-catchments and then it explores the model upscaling at the regional scale by verifying two methods to generate the source areas of debris-flow initiation. Using data of an extreme event occurred in the Vizze Valley(4 August 2012) and historical information, the modeling verification highlights that the propagation parameters are relatively simple to set in order to obtain correct runout distances. A double DTM filtering-using a threshold for the upslope contributing area(0.1 km~2) and a threshold for the terrain-slope angle(15°)-provides a satisfactory prediction of source areas and susceptibility map within the geological conditions of the Vizze Valley.     

Debris flow disaster prevention and mitigation of non-structural strategies in Taiwan

Taiwan has disadvantageous conditions for sediment-related disasters such as debris flows. The construction of engineering structures is an effective strategy for reducing debris flow disasters. However, it is impossible to construct engineering structures in all debris flow areas in a short period. Therefore, the government aims to gradually develop non-structural preventive strategies, including evacuation planning, debris flow disaster emergency action system, disaster resistant community program, recruitment of debris flow professional volunteers, debris flow warning systems, and land management strategies, to mitigate disasters and secure the safety of residents. This review describes the processes and effects of recent debris flow non-structural preventive strategies in Taiwan. The average number of casualties prior to the year 2000 was far higher than the corresponding number after 2000 because debris flow evacuation drills have been promoted since 2000 and the debris flow disaster emergency action system has been progressively improved since 2002. Furthermore, the changes in risks caused by debris flow disasters before and after the implementation of non-structural preventive strategies were used to explain the effectiveness of these strategies at the community level. The results showed that software-based non-structural preventive strategies can effectively reduce the casualties caused by debris flows at both the national and community levels.     

Prediction of debris-flow danger area by combining hydrological and inundation simulation methods

Debris flows have caused serious human casualties and economic losses in the regions strongly affected by the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake of 2008. Debris flow mitigation and risk assessment is a key issue for reconstruction.The existing methods of inundation simulation are based on historical disasters and have no power of prediction.The rain-flood method can not yield detailed flow hydrograph and does not meet the need of inundation simulation. In this paper,the process of water flow was studied by using the Arc-SCS model combined with hydraulic method,and then the debris flow runoff process was calculated using the empirical formula combining the result from Arc-SCS.The peak discharge and runoff duration served as input of inundation simulation. Then,the dangerous area is predicted using kinematic wave method and Manning equation.Taking the debris flow in Huashiban gully in Beichuan County,Sichuan Province,China on 24 Sep.2008 as example,the peak discharge of water flow and debris flow were calculated as 35.52 m3·s-1 and 215.66 m3·s-,with error of 4.15%compared to the measured values.The simulated area of debris-flow deposition was 161,500 m2,vs.the measured area of 144,097 m2,in error of 81.75%.The simulated maximum depth was 12.3 m,consistent with the real maximum depth between 10 and 15 m according to the field survey.The minor error is mainly due to the flow impact on buildings and variations in cross-section configuration.The present methodology can be applied to predict debris flow magnitude and evaluate its risk in other watersheds inthe earthquake area.     

牛眠沟流域泥石流形成条件、发展趋势及其防治探讨

汶川地震使牛眠沟流域变成了一个多泥石流灾害的区域,到目前为止,已经发生7次大规模泥石流灾害。经研究,该流域诱发泥石流灾害的3个基本条件非常发育,而目前正处于发展阶段,在震后5~10年内的雨季,极易发生危害性较大、冲击力较强的大规模降雨型泥石流。如果考虑直接利用主沟内沉积的泥石流堆积物,在主沟堆积区的中上游左右两侧修建约为沟宽一半的交替式拦挡土石坝、在中下游修建与沟宽大致相等的拦挡土石坝及在相邻两坝间修建与沟向相对且具有一定坡度斜坡的土木防治工程,可实现消能与耗能双重目的。     

Geomorphic effect of debris-flow sediments on the Min River,Wenchuan Earthquake region,western China

Coseismic landslides and subsequent mobilization of sediment greatly aggravated the landscape evolution and river sedimentation after the Wenchuan earthquake. The debris-flow alluvial fan and river morphological index was combined to describe quantitatively the effects of debris-flow sediment on the river characteristics in Longmen Mountains. The section of the Min River from the urban area of the Wenchuan county to the epicenter, the Yingxiu town in this county, was selected as the study area. We identified 27 river-blocking debrisflows(5 partial-, 7 semi-, 7 over semi-, and 5 fullyblocking degrees) in the study area via remote sensing interpretation and field survey. Based on this, the response of river longitudinal profile and curvature to debris-flow sediment was qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed. The results show that the channel gradient has decreased due to debris-flow aggradation, while two marked peaks in the river steepness index(ksn, represents the relative steepness degree of the channel) changed from 585 m0.9 to 732 m0.9 in zone 1, from 362 m0.9 to 513 m0.9 in zone 2. Moreover, the main channel has undergone substantial lateral migration with channel width decreased and river curvature increased. The temporal and spatial variation between river morphological characteristics and debris-flow sediments in short-term provides insights into the internal dynamic role of mass wasting processes in river morphology, which could be served as useful information for natural hazards management to prevent the river from being blocked by episodically debris flows after the earthquake.     

Curvature derived from LiDAR digital elevation models as simple indicators of debris-flow susceptibility

To mitigate the damage caused by debris flows resulting from heavy precipitation and to aid in evacuation plan preparation, areas at risk should be mapped on a scale appropriate for affected individuals and communities. We tested the effectiveness of simply identifying debris-flow hazards through automated derivation of surface curvatures using LiDAR digital elevation models. We achieved useful correspondence between plan curvatures and areas of existing debris-flow damage in two localities in Japan using the analysis of digital elevation models(DEMs). We found that plan curvatures derived from 10 m DEMs may be useful to indicate areas that are susceptible to debris flow in mountainous areas. In residential areas located on gentle sloping debris flow fans, the greatest damage to houses was found to be located in the elongated depressions that are connected to mountain stream valleys. Plan curvaturederived from 5 m DEM was the most sensitive indicators for susceptibility to debris flows.     

Debris flow susceptibility assessment using a probabilistic approach: A case study in the Longchi area,Sichuan province,China

The Longchi area with the city of Dujiangyan, in the Sichuan province of China, is composed of Permian stone and diorites and Triassic sandstones and mudstones intercalated with slates. An abundance of loose co-seismic materials were present on the slopes after the May 12, 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, which in later years served as source material for rainfall-induced debris flows or shallow landslides. A total of 48 debris flows, all triggered by heavy rainfall on 13th August 20l0, are described in this paper. Field investigation, supported by remote sensing image interpretation, was conducted to interpret the co-seismic landslides in the debris flow gullies. Specific characteristics of the study area such as slope, aspect, elevation, channel gradient, lithology, and gully density were selected for the evaluation of debris flow susceptibility. A score was given to all the debris flow gullies based on the probability of debris flow occurrence for the selected factors. In order to get the contribution of the different factors, principal component analyses were applied. A comprehensive score was obtained for the 48 debris flow gullies which enabled us to make a susceptibility map for debris flows with three classes. Twenty-two gullies have a high susceptibility, twenty gullies show a moderate susceptibility and six gullies have a low susceptibility for debris flows.     

A Regional-Scale Method of Forecasting Debris Flow Events Based on Water-Soil Coupling Mechanism

A debris flow forecast model based on a water-soil coupling mechanism that takes the debrisflow watershed as a basic forecast unit was established here for the prediction of disasters at the watershed scale.This was achieved through advances in our understanding of the formation mechanism of debris flow.To expand the applicable spatial scale of this forecasting model,a method of identifying potential debris flow watersheds was used to locate areas vulnerable to debris flow within a forecast region.Using these watersheds as forecasting units and a prediction method based on the water-soil coupling mechanism,a new forecasting method of debris flow at the regional scale was established.In order to test the prediction ability of this new forecasting method,the Sichuan province,China was selected as a study zone and the large-scale debris flow disasters attributable to heavy rainfall in this region on July 9,2013 were taken as the study case.According to debris flow disaster data on July 9,2013 which were provided by the geo-environmental monitoring station of Sichuan province,there were 252 watersheds in which debris flow events actually occurred.The current model predicted that 265 watersheds were likely to experience a debris flow event.Among these,43 towns including 204 debrisflow watersheds were successfully forecasted and 24 towns including 48 watersheds failed.The false prediction rate and failure prediction rate of thisforecast model were 23% and 19%,respectively.The results show that this method is more accurate and more applicable than traditional methods.     

A Modified Certainty Coefficient Method（M-CF） for Debris Flow Susceptibility Assessment：A Case Study for the Wenchuan Earthquake Meizoseismal Areas

In the meizoseismal areas hit by the China Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008, the disasterprone environment has changed dramatically, making the susceptibility assessment of debris flow more complex and uncertain. After the earthquake, debris flow hazards occurred frequently and effective susceptibility assessment of debris flow has become extremely important. Shenxi gully in Du Jiangyan city, located in the meizoseismal areas, was selected as the study area. Based on the research of disaster-prone environment and the main factors controlling debris flow, the susceptibility zonations of debris flow were mapped using factor weight method（FW）, certainty coefficient method（CF） and geomorphic information entropy method（GI）. Through comparative analysis, the study showed that these three methods underestimated susceptible degree of debris flow when used in the meizoseismal areas of Wenchuan earthquake. In order to solve this problem, this paper developed a modified certainty coefficient method（M-CF） to reflect the impact of rich loose materials on the susceptible degree of debris flow. In the modified method, the distribution and area of loose materials were obtained by field investigations and postearthquake remote sensing image, and four data sets, namely, lithology, elevation, slop and aspect, wereused to calculate the CF values. The result of M-CF method is in agreement with field investigations and the accuracy of the method is satisfied. The method has a wide application to the susceptibility assessment of debris flow in the earthquake stricken areas.     

Landslide hazard mapping during a large scale earthquake

This paper reports a method to make hazard maps of sediment disasters resulting from an earthquake and following heavy rainfall for the entire region of Gunma prefecture, Japan. Firstly, we identified the slopes in the study area, which are susceptible to large-scale landslides and land failures during an earthquake with a magnitude of seven on the Richter scale. To analyze the sheer volume of the data, we employed a statistical method to evaluate the susceptibility, mainly considering geomorphologic conditions. Secondly, we extracted mudflow and slope failure susceptible areas and potential flooding zones resulting from a damming at a river triggered by the earthquake and heavy rainfall, and we identified the settlements which would be isolated by the road disruption caused by the sediment disasters. As the result, 359 settlements were classified as potential isolation areas. Combining the above-mentioned susceptibility maps, we obtained two types of sediment disaster hazard maps of the study area, depicting the potential hazards which would occur during the earthquake and the disasters which would be caused by heavy rainfall following the quake, respectively. These hazard maps and the disaster information would be useful for the regional disaster prevention planning and countermeasures in the future.     

Changes in runout distances of debris flows over time in the Wenchuan earthquake zone

A large number of debris flows occurred in the Wenchuan earthquake zone after the 12 May 2008 earthquake.The risks posed by these debris flows were rather high.An appropriate model is required to predict the possible runout distance and impacted area.This paper describes a study on the runout characteristics of the debris flows that occurred in the Wenchuan earthquake zone over the past four years.A total of 120 debris flows are analyzed.Separate multivariate regression models are established for the runout distances of hill-slope debris flows and channelized debris flows.The control variables include type of debris flow,debris flow volume,and elevation difference.Comparison of the debris flows occurring before and after the earthquake shows that the runout distance increased after the earthquake due to sufficient material supply and increased mobility of the source materials.In addition,the runout distances of annual debris flow events in 2008,2010 and 2011 are analyzed and compared.There is a tendency that the runout distance decreases over time due to the decreasing source material volume and possible changes of debris flow type.Comparison between the debris flows in the earthquake zone and the debris flows in Swiss Alps,Canada,Austria,and Japan shows that the former have a smaller mobility.     

Debris-flow of Zelongnong Ravine in Tibet

Zelongnong Ravine, a branch ravine of Brahmaputra, is an old large glacier debris-flow ravine. Debris-flows with medium and/or small scales occur almost every year; multiple super debris-flows have also broken out in history, and have caused destructive disaster to local residents at the mouth of ravine and blocked Brahmaputra. The huge altitude difference and the steep slope of the Zelongnong Ravine provide predominant energy conditions for the debris-flow. The drainage basin is located in the fast uplifted area, where the complicated geologic structure, the cracked rock, and the frequent earthquake make the rocks experience strong weathering, thus plenty of granular materials are available for the formation of debris-flows. Although this region is located in the rain shadow area, the precipitation is concentrated and most is with high intensity. Also, the strong glacier activity provides water source for debris-flow. According to literature reviews, most debris-flows in the ravine are induced by rainstorms, and their scales are relatively small. However, when the melted water is overlaid, the large scale debris-flows may occur. Parametric calculation such as the flow velocity and the runoff is conducted according to the monitoring data. The result shows that large debris-flows can be aroused when the rainstorm and the melted water are combined well, but the possibility of blocking off Brahmaputra is rare. The occurrence of the super debris-flows is closely related to the intense glacier activity (e.g., glacier surge). They often result in destructive disasters and are hard to be prevented and cured by engineering measures, due to the oversized scales. The hazard mitigation measures such as monitoring and prediction are proposed.     

Risk Assessment of Disaster Chain: Experience from Wenchuan Earthquake-induced Landslides in China

This paper deals with the formative process of the Wenchuan earthquake disaster chain risk. Selected earthquake-landslides chain risk is critically evaluated by the probability of landslide displacement failure based on the Newmark's permanent-deformation model. In this context, a conceptual model of regional disaster chain risk assessment was proposed, in which the hazardformative environments sensitivity was the core factor as well as the main difference compared with single disaster risk assessment. The disaster chain risk is accumulation of primary disaster risk and the secondary disasters risks. Results derived from the Wenchuan case proved that the conceptual model was suitable for the disaster chain risk assessment, especially the sudden disaster chain. This experience would offer greater potential in application of conceptual model of disaster chain risk assessment, in the process of large-scale disaster risk governance.     

Comparison of the entrainment rate of debris flows in distinctive triggering conditions

Debris flows can be extremely destructive because they can increase in magnitude via progressive entrainment. In this paper, a total of 18 landslide-type debris flows and 268 channelized debris flows in Wenchuan earthquake and Taiwan region, as well as other regions were collected to analyze the entrainment rate of debris flows in each triggering condition. Results show that there is a power relationship between volume of initial triggered mass and final deposited debris for landslide type debris flow. The debris flows during 2008 and 2013 in Wenchuan earthquake-region have smaller entrainment rate than that from 2001 t0 2009 in Taiwan. The entrainment rate of debris flow events from 2001 to 2009 in Taiwan shows a decaying tendency as elapsed time. Comparison of the entrainment rate in the two earthquake-hit regions with other regions proves that entrainment rate has a close relation with major sediment availability and secondary rainstorm conditions.     

Artificial Neural Network-based prediction of glacial debris flows in the ParlungZangbo Basin,southeastern Tibetan Plateau,China

Accurate prediction on geological hazards can prevent disaster events in advance and greatly reduce property losses and life casualties.Glacial debris flows are the most serious hazards in southeastern Tibet in China due to their complexity in formation mechanism and the difficulty in prediction.Data collected from 102 glacier debris flow events from 31 gullies since 1970 and regional meteorological data from 1970 to 2019 in ParlungZangbo River Basin in southeastern Tibet were used for Artificial Neural Network(ANN)-based prediction of glacial debris flows.The formation mechanism of glacial debris flows in the ParlungZangbo Basin was systematically analyzed,and the calculations involving the meteorological data and disaster events were conducted by using the statistical methods and two layers fully connected neural networks.The occurrence probabilities and scales of glacial debris flows(small,medium,and large)were predicted,and promising results have been achieved.Through the proposed model calculations,a prediction accuracy of 78.33%was achieved for the scale of glacial debris flows in the study area.The prediction accuracy for both large-and medium-scale debris flows are higher than that for small-scale debris flows.The debris flow scale and the probability of occurrence increase with increasing rainfall and temperature.In addition,the K-fold cross-validation method was used to verify the reliability of the model.The average accuracy of the model calculated under this method is about 93.3%,which validates the proposed model.Practices have proved that the combination of ANN and disaster events can provide sound prediction on geological hazards under complex conditions.     

Non-structural mitigation programs for sediment-related disasters after the Chichi Earthquake in Taiwan

Following the Chichi Earthquake (M_L=7.3) in 1999, sediment-related disasters, such as landslides and debris flows, have become more frequent in Taiwan. Because engineering structures cannot be fully and rapidly emplaced, the government has initiated non-structural hazard mitigation programs. Initially, community debris flow evacuation drills were promoted in 2000. Typhoon Toraji caused numerous debris flow events in July 2001, and some communities evacuated according to the drills, significantly reducing the numbers of possible casualties. Based on that result, the government expanded the program for evacuation drills. Secondly, the early warning system created after the Chichi Earthquake will prevent many potential future casualties. Rainfall threshold values for debris flow warnings in different areas are determined from information received from local weather stations and modified for local geomorphologic situations. Realtime information is gradually being integrated to create a debris flow disaster warning system, the goal of which is to provide warnings to zones in which debris flows are likely. The warning system was launched in 2005 and has two levels of alarms: yellow and red. The final, red alarm triggers enforced evacuation. Overall, the decrease in casualties from debris flows during the decade after the Chichi Earthquake is not the result of a decrease in number or severity of sediment related disasters, but is more directly related to the gradually improved early warning and evacuation system. However, the compound hazards resulting from Typhoon Morakot in 2009 remind us of the ongoing need for improving the existing mitigation system.     

Reconstruction of debris-flow activity in a temperate mountain forest catchment of central Mexico

The use of dendrochronology to study and date geomorphic processes in volcanic environments is still incipient, even more so on the volcanic slopes covered by temperate forests in central Mexico. Mass movements, such as debris flows, often impact forest stands where they cause damage to individual trees, thereby generating growth disturbances(GD) in the tree-ring records. The identification and dating of GD enables reconstruction of the age of trees colonizing bare surfaces after major events, but also allows the assessment of the frequency or spatial distribution of past geomorphic process activity. Here we used increment cores from 65 Pinus leiophylla, Abies religiosa, and Alnus jorullensis trees growing in the Axal gorge, on the southern slopes of La Malinche volcano, to unravel past debris-flow activity both temporally and spatially. Based on the combination of GD records, a weighted tree response index(Wit), field evidence and hydrometeorological records, we reconstructed 23 debris flows since 1933.Interestingly, almost two-thirds of the reconstructed years with debris-flow activity in Axal gorge match with events recorded in Axaltzintle gorge located on the NE slopes of La Malinche. These findings suggest a regional triggering mechanism, most likely related to the occurrence of hurricanes. This research could be useful for disaster risk management of the La Malinche National Park.     

Risk assessment of secondary geological disasters induced by the Yushu earthquake

The Yushu Ms 7.1 earthquake occurred on April 14,2010 in Qinghai Province,China.It induced a mass of secondary geological disasters,such as collapses,landslides,and debris flows.Risk assessment maps are important for geological disaster prevention and mitigation,and also can serve as a guide for post-earthquake reconstruction.Firstly,a hazard assessment index system of secondary geological disasters in the earthquake region was built in this paper,which was based on detailed analysis of environmental and triggering factors closely related to geological disasters in the study area.GIS technology was utilized to extract and analyze the assessment index.Hazard assessment maps of secondary geological disasters were obtained by spatial modeling and overlaying analysis.Secondly,an analysis of the vulnerability of hazard bearing bodies in the area was conducted,important information,such as, population density,percentage of arable land, industrial and agricultural outputs per unit area were regarded as assessment indices to evaluate socioeconomic vulnerability.Thirdly,the risk level of secondary geological disasters of the area was obtained by the formula:Risk=Hazard×Vulnerability. Risk assessment maps were categorized into four levels,including"low","moderate","high"and"very high".These results show that some urban areas are at very high risk,including Jiegu,Chengwen,Xiaxiula and Sahuteng towns.This research can provide some references and suggestions to improve decisionmaking support for emergency relief and post- earthquake reconstruction in the study area.