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Earthquake prediction: the null hypothesis   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
The null hypothesis in assessing earthquake predictions is often, loosely speaking, that the successful predictions are chance coincidences. To make this more precise requires specifying a chance model for the predictions and/or the seismicity. The null hypothesis tends to be rejected not only when the predictions have merit, but also when the chance model is inappropriate. In one standard approach, the seismicity is taken to be random and the predictions are held fixed. 'Conditioning' on the predictions this way tends to reject the null hypothesis even when it is true, if the predictions depend on the seismicity history. An approach that seems less likely to yield erroneous conclusions is to compare the predictions with the predictions of a 'sensible' random prediction algorithm that uses seismicity up to time t to predict what will happen after time t. The null hypothesis is then that the predictions are no better than those of the random algorithm. Significance levels can be assigned to this test in a more satisfactory way, because the distribution of the success rate of the random predictions is under our control. Failure to reject the null hypothesis indicates that there is no evidence that any extra-seismic information the predictor uses (electrical signals for example) helps to predict earthquakes.  相似文献   

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城郊聚落景观的集聚特征分析方法选择研究   总被引:3,自引:1,他引:3  
高度集聚是城郊聚落景观最明显的空间格局特征,是郊区城市化的直观反映。针对目前景观集聚程度研究空间计算方法缺乏筛选、不具可比性等问题,通过4种集聚空间算法在不同角度分析典型区域的城郊聚落景观集聚特征,并在西安市长安区作以简单应用。结果表明:1景观聚集度适于区分出同类连续大斑块和不同类破碎小斑块,核密度适于宏观上集聚组团的识别,空间关联算法适于空间定位具体要素点的集聚特征,Ripley’s L函数适于识别空间距离以确定搜索半径;2根据核密度计算结果,从研究区聚落景观中提取出3个大型组团,分别命名为"政府商业中心聚落组团""沣渭新区聚落组团"和"旅游度假区聚落组团",其划分模式符合研究区各经济板块的未来发展方向。  相似文献   

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新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)在城市内部的病例时空聚集性特征及影响因素对于疫情防控具有重要参考价值。论文以重庆市为例,收集2020年1月21日—2月24日的458例COVID-19确诊病例数据,结合手机信令数据与空间环境数据,采用空间聚集性分析、因子分析与回归分析等方法,探究重庆市新冠疫情在街道尺度上的时空聚集性特征,并分析其影响因素。结果表明:① 时间上,确诊病例前期增长较快,以外地输入为主,后期逐渐趋缓,以本地传播(包括街道间传播、街道内传播、家庭内传播)为主,其中家庭内传播占比最大(23%);② 空间上,病例呈现显著的聚集特征,且聚集性逐渐增强,热点街道分布于重庆市西部、东北部;分类型来看,本地病例热点街道集中于人口密度较大、经济发展更好的西北部、西南部,外地输入病例热点街道集中于地理邻近湖北省的中部、东北部;③ 所有病例密度、本地病例密度、外地输入病例密度与因子分析所得4个因子(即城市交通因子、街道间活动因子、生活服务因子、居民分布因子)的回归结果显示,交通设施水平与病例密度存在密切关联,商店超市餐饮等生活服务地点与病毒传播显著相关,街道间活动是发生聚集性疫情的重要因素,而外地输入型病例多出现于人口密集区域。疫情防控中应根据不同区域疫情传播模式差异实施针对性措施,例如在重庆市中部、东北部关注外地输入防控,西北部、西南部以本地传播防控为重点;同时,应加强城市内部交通与街道居民接触密集区域的防控措施,有效防止疫情反弹。  相似文献   

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汶川特大地震导致了青川县乔庄镇(主城区)遭遇了较为惨重的特大灾难.县城的恢复重建工作受到地震断裂、山体变形、强烈的余震活动等严重制约.尤其是地震断裂问题,更是对能否原址重建起决定性作用.在参考以往研究成果的基础上,结合实地调查,对该镇的地震断裂问题进行了评估,确定了青川-平武断裂(龙门山后山断裂主断裂之一)分三条分支断裂(北支断裂、中间断裂、南支断裂)穿过乔庄镇主城区的大致方位和走势,并且现场发现该三条分支断裂均发生了不同程度的地震破裂(如地表破裂,山体震裂等),已逐渐发展成为中强震的孕震构造.  相似文献   

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地区综合实力的灰色聚类评价   总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6  
根据灰色聚类分析的原理与方法,对金华市等县(市)社会经济发展进行了灰色聚类分析,确定了该地区各县(市)综合实力的等级,为进一步深化改革、持续发展提供重要的依据  相似文献   

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Traveltime computation methods for strongly heterogeneous 3-D media developed during recent years are well suited for earthquake location. We present here a new method based on the traveltime algorithm of Podvin-Lecomte, related to the inverse problem formulation of Tarantola & Valette. The Podvin-Lecomte method, based on the Huygens principle, is very robust and allows arbitrary surface topography and station placement even for borehole instruments. First arrival traveltimes are computed for each of the recording stations using a fine 3-D velocity mesh (up to 106 cells on a workstation). The traveltime grid allows the use of the Tarantola & Valette formulation, which enables a full non-linear approach. The solution is given as a 3-D probability density function of hypocentre coordinates, which accounts for the arrival time measurements as well as a priori information for the location, the accuracy of both the arrival time readings and the computation of the theoretical traveltimes. This powerful method called 3DGRIDLOC gives the location of the induced seismicity of the gas field of Lacq (France) using 443 520 cells of a 3-D velocity mesh and the observations from nine recording stations, one of which is located at the bottom of a 3880 m deep borehole. Location of synthetic foci as well as more than 500 actual earthquakes shows the real advantages of this new method versus the classical HYPO71. A new insight into the induced seismicity is now possible: induced seismicity may occur as far away as 10 km from the gas reservoir and involve a much greater volume of rock than expected using earlier locations.  相似文献   

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由汶川地震引发对中国地震预报的方法学反思   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
从2008-05-12四川汶川地震出发,对地震预报预防进行深刻的反思科学方法,针对Geller等人1991年在科学杂志(science)提出的地震不可预报等论点,就地震是否可以预报展开了据实的比较性探讨分析;通过跨学科的论证和说理,提出了在中国地震预报继承和创新中,坚持科学发展,群专结合的正确方向.  相似文献   

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强震在高烈度的山区往往诱发大量的崩塌和滑坡,一到雨季不同规模的泥石流频频暴发,造成严重的灾害.以处于汶川地震Ⅺ度烈度区的213国道映秀到彻底关段的21条沟为例,探讨强震后如何对高烈度区的沟道泥石流的规模、频率、危险性作出尽快评价.为此,针对地震泥石流的特点和形成条件,确定影响泥石流规模和频率的评价因子;并从已有的相关图件和遥感影像中获取评价因子的特征值;用简单的数学方法将因子特征值分为五级,并归一化为0.0到1.0的标准值;用层次分析法计算出评价因子的权重;然后用常用或改进的评价模型,对21条沟泥石流的规模、频率、危险性分五级作出评价;最后用强震后3 a间各沟实际发生的泥石流规模和频率对评价结果进行检验,结果表明两者吻合度比较好.这种尽快的评价方法,可供其他山区强震后高烈度区的泥石流危险性评价参考.  相似文献   

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日本311特大地震地理学报告   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
顾朝林 《地理学报》2011,66(6):853-861
应用日本东北地理学会311 地震研究报告资料进行整理完成,系统介绍了这次特大地震的灾情、灾区概况、4 大灾区不同特征、灾害对经济社会的冲击,尤其注重老年少子社会劳动力、汽车主导产业、海洋特色产业、医疗设施和中心城市仙台的影响。  相似文献   

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为了提高K均值聚类算法的质量与收敛速度,提出一种基于小波变换的栅格数据聚类新算法。该算法利用小波分析塔式算法得到的顶层栅格数据,既较好地保留原始数据的特征信息,又大幅减小了数据量,在保证聚类质量前提下,提高了算法的收敛速度;针对分解后的低频数据应用K均值算法,得到后续迭代所需的聚类中心初值,避免了初值选择的盲目性。试验表明,该算法具有计算效率高、稳定性好、聚类质量有保证等优点。  相似文献   

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基于遗传算法的面状地理实体聚类   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
该文提出一种利用遗传算法解决面状地理实体聚类问题的新方法。设计的遗传算法采用整数编码和RARw交叉算子。针对整数编码提出了新的初始种群生成方法和基因多样性度量方法。试验结果表明,该方法能部分改善面状地理实体的聚类质量。  相似文献   

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The two-point correlation function of the seismic moment tensor   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
Summary. We use the invariants of the two-point correlation function of the seismic moment to investigate the degree of irregularity of an earthquake fault, i.e. to study the rapidity with which a complex fault changes its direction of orientation. The two-point correlation function is a fourth-order tensor which has three scalar invariants in the isotropic case. Although the accuracy of present-day catalogues of fault plane solutions is rather low for our purpose, nevertheless the invariants of these correlation tensors confirm the generally  相似文献   

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The frequency–energy distribution of global seismicity is studied using broad-band radiated energy of shallow earthquakes from January 1987 to December 1994 estimated by NEIC. Rank-ordering statistics are applied to enhance the resolution in retrieving the power-law distribution with undersampled data, namely a few tens of events. Seen in the perspective of broad-band radiated energy with higher resolution, a single (Gutenberg–Richter-type) power-law distribution can fit the data. For earthquakes with energy larger than 1014 J, the number N of events with energy E depends on E via N∝E −B , with the scaling constant B = 0.64 ± 0.04, corresponding to b = 0.95 ± 0.06. This relation is different from that of scalar seismic moment, which shows a transition of power-law distributions between small and large earthquakes. To demonstrate such a difference we use the same set of earthquakes with both broad-band energy estimation and CMT estimation. It is found that for the same data set, the energy distribution and the moment distribution show different patterns. The moment distribution has a clear kink between small and large earthquakes, while the energy distribution shows a single power law with no convincing kink between small and large earthquakes. To investigate the effect of different focal mechanisms and different seismic regions, events with strike-slip mechanisms and events within the Japan–Kuril region are considered. For these subsets of events, a similar pattern exists, in which the moment distribution shows a kink between small and large earthquakes, while the energy distribution shows a single power law.  相似文献   

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历史地震救援的经验表明,道路是抗震救灾的主要地面交通生命线,道路的破坏除了造成直接经济损失外,也直接影响相连道路的连通性能,间接影响了整个灾区路网的连通性能,从而降低了灾区交通运输效率.目前,缺乏对道路连通性能的客观、定量震害评估指标与方法.该文在复杂网络“网络效率”指标的基础上,发展了一种道路连通性能震害评估方法.首先,利用网络效率分别建立路线、路网的连通效率指标,然后根据震前、震后两个时相的路线、路网连通效率的变化,建立道路连通震害指数,评估道路连通性能的震害情况.试验表明,该方法可以有效地度量与区分不同震害情况下的道路连通性能,能够为应急救援提供定量的决策依据.  相似文献   

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定量遥感尺度转换方法研究进展   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
姚远  陈曦  钱静 《地理科学》2019,39(3):367-376
首先对遥感科学和气象学、水文学、生态学、地理学和的尺度概念及其转换方法进行了区分。其次对遥感数据空间尺度转换方法的国内外研究进展情况进行了系统梳理,重点比对了目前空间尺度转换常用6种转换方法:统计转换法、分类转换法、数据融合转换方法、分形分析法、基于局域动态模型的转换方法和基于物理意义尺度转换方法及其各自所属方法的优点和缺点。再次以遥感时间尺度转换应用最为广泛的地表蒸散发和农业旱情监测等2个领域为例,对遥感时间尺度转换方法进行了总结。最后预测了今后定量遥感尺度转换研究可能的研究重点,以期为今后更好地开展尺度效应和尺度转换研究工作提供参考。  相似文献   

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