Numerical case study of the Altai-Sayan lee cyclogenesis over East Asia

Summary Climatological studies show that the Altai-Sayan lee side is one of the major cyclogenesis areas in the Northern Hemisphere. In case of the Altai-Sayan lee cyclogenesis, the surface cyclone is generated when a primary cyclone is swept north of the mountains. In the mid-troposphere, a trough develops and finally turns into a cutoff low within 48 h. The main synoptic features are similar to those of Alpine cyclogenesis. Numerical simulations are performed to assess the effect of different representation of orography on the Altai-Sayan cyclogenesis. Two experiments are performed, a step-mountain (ETA) and an envelope orography (SGM) experiment. The ETA experiment produced the cyclogenesis in a way similar to that in the analysis both at the surface and at mid-troposphere. The SGM experiment failed in the simulation of the upper cutoff low. The difference in predicted pressure between the ETA and the SGM experiment shows a dipolar structure suggesting that the blocking effect of the mountains is essential in the development of the Altai-Sayan lee cyclogenesis.With 7 Figures     

Modeling the evolution of the family of Mediterranean cyclones using the regional model of the atmosphere

Due to the complex orography and the presence of the moisture-saturated air, the Mediterranean region is characterized by the increased baroclinic and convective instability, that leads to the sudden cyclogenesis and the formation of dangerous weather phenomena. The results are given of the investigation of formation mechanisms of Mediterranean cyclones, peculiarities of stages of their evolution and dynamical processes, which occur throughout the atmosphere, using the regional numerical ETA model of the atmosphere by the example of individual cases of the cyclogenesis over the Mediterranean Sea. It is revealed that the cold Arctic air outbreak (the intrusion of the cold Arctic air) to the south of the Western Europe, leading to the formation of the areas of the baroclinic instability and the increased moisture content of the air in the area of the vortex origin, favors the cyclogenesis. The use of the vertical coordinate η in the model enabled to compute more precisely the vertical wind speed, therefore, the influence of the orography on the moisture content and precipitation increase became pronounced. The transformation of the structure of meteorological fields in the course of the development of vortexes is considered. The computation of the helicity is made, and it is shown that this characteristic can be one of the earliest predictors of cyclogenesis.     

THE SENSITIVITY OF NUMERICAL SIMULATION TO OROGRAPHY SPECIFICATION IN THE LOW RESOLUTION SPECTRAL MODEL－PART I: THE EFFECTS OF OROGRAPHY ON THE ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION

In order to identify the sensitivity of the numerical simulation to the orography specification in a low resolution spectral model, two sets of numerical experiments for full-mountain and no-mountain cases are performed. By comparing the results, it is possible to determine the eflects of mountains on the atmospheric general circulation.This is a global, spectral model incorporating the primitive equations sugmented by physical parameterization and mountains, with five equally-spaced sigma levels in the vertical ang a triangular truncation at wavenum-ber 10 in the horizontal.Analysis of results supports earlier work by demonstrating that the low resolution global spectral model is capable of simulating the major features of global general circulation and indicates that it is necessary to consider the effects of mountains on stationary disturbances in the numerical simulation. The simulations show that topography plays an important role in intensifying heat sources for maintenance of disturbances.All the     

The Use of Pre-Storm Boundary-Layer Baroclinicity in Determining and Operationally Implementing the Atlantic Surface Cyclone Intensification Index

The lateral motion of the Gulf Stream off the eastern seaboard of the United States during the winter season can act to dramatically enhance the low-level baroclinicity within the coastal zone during periods of offshore cold advection. The ralative close proximity of the Gulf Stream current off the mid-Atlantic coast can result in the rapid and intense destabilization of the marine atmospheric boundary layer directly above and shoreward of the Gulf Stream within this region. This airmass modification period often precedes either wintertime coastal cyclogenesis or the cyclonic re-development of existing mid-latitude cyclones. A climatological study investigating the relationship between the severity of the pre-storm, cold advection period and subsequent cyclogenic intensification was undertaken by Cione et al. in 1993. Findings from this study illustrate that the thermal structure of the continental airmass as well as the position of the Gulf Stream front relative to land during the pre-storm period (i.e., 24–48 h prior to the initial cyclonic intensification) are linked to the observed rate of surface cyclonic deepening for storms that either advected into or initially developed within the Carolina-southeast Virginia offshore coastal zone. It is a major objective of this research to test the potential operational utility of this pre-storm low level baroclinic linkage to subsequent cyclogenesis in an actual National Weather Service (NWS) coastal winter storm forecast setting.The ability to produce coastal surface cyclone intensity forecasts recently became available to North Carolina State University researchers and NWS forecasters. This statistical forecast guidance utilizes regression relationships derived from a nine-season (January 1982–April 1990), 116-storm study conducted previously. During the period between February 1994 and February 1996, the Atlantic Surface Cyclone Intensification Index (ASCII) was successfully implemented in an operational setting by the NWS at the Raleigh-Durham (RAH) forecast office for 10 winter storms. Analysis of these ASCII forecasts will be presented.     

Role of orography in modulating space–time scales of convection over South Asia

Propagation of convective systems in the meridional direction during boreal summer is responsible for active and break phases of monsoon over south Asia. This region is unique in the world in its characteristics of monsoon variability and is in close proximity of mountains like the Himalayas. Here, using an atmospheric general circulation model, we try to understand the role of orography in determining spatial and temporal scales of these convective systems. Absence of orography (noGlOrog) decreased the simulated seasonal mean precipitation over India by 23 % due to delay in onset by about a month vis-a-vis the full-mountain case. In noGlOrog, poleward propagations were absent during the delayed period prior to onset. Post-onset, both simulations had similar patterns of poleward propagations. The spatial and temporal scales of propagating clouds bands were determined using wavelet analysis. These scales were found to be different in full-mountain and no-mountain experiments in June–July. However, after the onset of monsoon in noGlOrog, these scales become similar to that with orography. Simulations with two different sets of convection schemes confirmed this result. Further analysis shows that the absence (presence) of meridional propagations during early (late) phase of summer monsoon in noGlOrog was associated with weaker (stronger) vertical shear of zonal wind over south Asia. Our study shows that orography plays a major role in determining the time of onset over the Indian region. However, after onset, basic characteristics of propagating convective systems and therefore the monthly precipitation over India, are less sensitive to the presence of orography and are modulated by moist convective processes.     

地形影响蒙古气旋发展的观测和模拟研究

针对2001年4月上旬一次蒙古气旋发展过程中的地形因素进行了观测和模拟研究, 结果表明:依据低层冷空气是否越过阿尔泰—萨彦岭山地产生气旋冷锋, 蒙古气旋的发生发展过程可以划分为触发和发展两个阶段。在气旋的发展阶段, 斜压不稳定是其主要强迫机制。伴随地形对低层冷空气阻滞程度的变化, 蒙古气旋经历了从缓慢发展到剧烈加强的过程。阿尔泰—萨彦岭山地通过对低层冷空气的阻滞使山地上空等熵面更为陡立, 加强了对流层低层的斜压强迫, 从而使斜压强迫的涡度增长向低层聚集, 导致气旋发展强度增强。阿尔泰—萨彦岭山地及其南侧形成的峡谷地形对低空急流的位置、范围、强度及演变过程具有较重要影响。另外, 对流层高层位涡平流也是气旋发展的一个强迫因素, 但其影响较小。     

重力流冷锋及其受地形的影响

建立了一个二维非静力平衡模式，通过坐标变换的方法使得模式低层有较高的分辨率。对重力流的模拟结果显示；本模式模拟出的重力流冷锋主要特征，如抬高的头部、头部较强的上升运动以及等位温线密集带与实际大气观测很一致。此外，模式还成功地模拟出了重力流头部后面底层的高速潜流层。应用模拟结果与理论结果对重力流的移动速度进行了对比分析。当考虑地形时，重力流在山前受阻，其头部比不考虑地形时高，且产生了向上游传播的“涌浪”；重力流过山后其头部降低，位温梯度减弱，头部后面的水平速度减小。此外，还对非静力平衡与静力平衡条件下重力流的差异进行了分析讨论。     

Pressure drag on the Dinaric Alps during the ALPEX SOP

Summary During the ALPEX SOP (March–April, 1982), microbarographic measurements were conducted on the Northern Adriatic as a part of research on the Bora. In this paper the measured pressure field around the Dinaric Alps is used to compute the total pressure drag vectors using Archimedes law.The 3-hourly temporal variations of these drag vectors is examined for different synoptic events. During the anticyclonic calm weather period at the end of March and beginning of April there is evidence of a divrnal drag variation. Regardless of magnitude, the pressure drag vectors seem to be aligned almost perpendicular to the main mountain ridge. During synoptic scale flow developments the drag direction change usually appears steady and slow (1–2 days). However during an exceptionally strong frontal passage (8/9 April) this time scale was much shorter (3–6 hours). The maximae of the pressure drag during SOP are always connected with Bora periods and the magnitudes of the drag values indicate that during these events there is a major sink of atmospheric momentum over the Dinaric Alpine region.With 11 Figures     

Intra-seasonal climate variability of Madagascar. Part 1: Mean summer conditions

Summary Variability of the summer climate of Madagascar is studied using area-averaged rainfall (1961–1992) and ECMWF meteorological data (1987–1992). Rainfall time series illustrate a seasonal onset in late December, a convective peak in mid-February and cessation near the end of March. Convective cycles with periods of 10–20 and 40 days are common. The former are contributed by easterly waves and the latter by monsoon surges which may resonate with the Madden Julian Oscillation. Using ECMWF January–February means, the summer climate of the Madagascar region is described. Characteristics of the region include SST>28°C, a quasi-permanent, topographic trade wind trough, sudden cyclogenesis, and distinct circulation regimes with easterly (westerly) shear to the north (south). The most poleward limit of deep convection and sustained uplift is near 20°S, 45°E. A convective vortex embedded in the ITCZ is a prevalent feature owing to the interaction of the NW monsoon and local topography.With 11 Figures     

Contrasting the impact of dynamic data assimilation on the numerical simulations of cyclogenesis during GALEIOP 10 and IOP 1

Summary The nudging assimilation scheme described in the companion paper by Brill et al. is applied to study oceanic cyclogenesis during GALEIOP 10 on 27–28 February 1986. A 36-h control simulation statically initialized from 0000 UTC 27 February 1986 data moves the cyclone too far north and east in the 12-h period of most rapid deepening limiting the usefulness of the simulation for diagnostic study. The use of nudging to dynamically assimilate special 3-h and routine 12-h rawindsonde and dropsonde data into the model during the entire 36-h forecast period failed to deepen the cyclone as it moved northeast off the Atlantic seaboard beyond the area covered 3-h by sounding data. Subjectively analyzed mean sea-level pressures (MSLP) were included in the data base to allow the model to nudge toward 3-h surface pressure analyses extended to cover the region of cyclogenesis over the ocean. The assimilation of 3-h surface data over the ocean is insufficient to produce a realistic simulation of cyclogenesis. This result motivated the use of the nudging technique to assimilate surface pressure and upper air data over land during the 12-h pre-cyclogenetic period (i.e. dynamic initialization) and compare the subsequent 24-h simulation with one initialized statically at the same synoptic time.Dynamic initialization produced the best simulation of the occanic cyclone based upon the standard statistical scores and positions of the MSLP minima. This simulation is used to diagnose differences between cyclogenesis during GALEIOP 1 and IOP 10. Isentropic analyses and vertical cross sections are derived from the model simulations and are used to contrast the strength of the upper tropospheric forcing and the low-level static stability associated with each case. The results of the diagnostic analyses reveal that stronger surface response (based upon MSLP minima) to weaker upper-level forcing during GALEIOP 10 (compared with GALEIOP 1) was associated with differences in the lower tropospheric static stability and thermal advection patterns and their interaction with upper tropospheric features.With 19 Figures     

The use of an objective index in the synoptic routine work in order to forecast low stratus

Summary ¶The cold seasons (October to March) of the years 1960 to 1984 have been investigated for inversions around Vienna. The basic material consists of climate and synoptic data as well as soundings taken at 0000UTC and 1200UTC at Vienna – Hohe Warte.These observations are filtered in three steps. First all days with inversions in the planetary boundary layer are selected which yields 1795 cases. For these cases the sounding data are used to calculate a so called inversion index I. This index has been developed as an objective measure for the intensity and the vertical extent of inversions. It is used as criterion for the information of low stratus. The second filter discards episodes with precipitation leaving 664 cases with dry but cloudy or foggy weather in the low lands. These remaining cases, for which the large scale weather patterns are determined, are again filtered to leave those with clear skies on the mountains, yielding 187 final cases. They are used to define rules for the formation of low stratus around Vienna, comprising rules for the time of onset and the persistency of low stratus. Further the large scale weather patterns leading to such situations are determined and the limiting values of the inversion index associated with persistent low stratus are found for every month of the cold saison of the year. So this work aims at improving the score of forecasting the formation and persistence of low stratus in the region of Vienna. There was made a verification with this inversion index for the cold season 1999/2000. Using the inversion index the results show that the score of low stratus forecasts are improving. In nearly 30% oft the investigated cases (16 out of 57) the forecasts would have been better, in 62% (36 out of 57) the criteria of the inversion index would have supported the forecasts.Received May 31, 2001; revised April 3, 2002; accepted August 12, 2002 Published online: May 8, 2003     

Orographic and stability effects on day-time,valley-side slope flows

The effects of orography and initial stability upon the magnitude and configuration of daytime, valley-side slope flows were investigated. A three-dimensional, time-dependent, non-hydrostatic numerical model provided simulations over a range of idealised valley forms for a range of vertical stabilities. The model's short-wave radiation scheme was improved and the runs were for a virtually dry atmosphere. Airflow over the valley is influenced by two distinct stability regimes, separated by a sharp threshold value of 0.37°C km^–1. At lower stabilities, flow is strong and predominantly downward. Above the threshold, uplift occurs for all stabilities, decreasing in magnitude with increasing stability. Cross-valley flow increases in the stability range 0.06°C–0.6°C/100 m and decreases at higher stabilities. For a given stability above the threshold value, vertical velocities are directly related to slope angle. Horizontal velocities increase with slope at low angles but there is a suggestion that they decrease with increasing slope angle at high angles. The effect of valley half-width is much smaller than that of slope; greater valley width leads to a weaker cross-valley circulation. Conditions for the development of valley-slope flow configuration in harmony with the underlying orography are derived. A quantitative relationship between the magnitude of the average flow and the average slope and the initial stability is presented.     

The role of the interaction between polar and subtropical jet in a case of depression rejuvenation over the Eastern Mediterranean

Summary In this paper, an attempt is made to investigate the synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions and dynamic processes leading to the rejuvenation of depressions or cyclogenesis over the Eastern Mediterranean during the cold period of the year. A case study analysis is carried out when the Polar Front Jet (PFJ) is positioned to the south of its normal seasonal position and interacts with the Subtropical Jet Stream (SJS), which is positioned to the north of its normal seasonal position. It was found that the vigorous rejuvenation of a northeastwards moving Atlas mountains depression on 15 March 1998 over Cyprus region is associated with an increase of the hydrodynamic instability due to the juxtaposition of a polar front jet streak to the subtropical jet stream. Furthermore, the rejuvenation is related to the combined effect of the direct and indirect cross vertical circulations appearing on the right side of the entrance of a polar jet streak and the left side of a subtropical jet streak exit, respectively.     

青藏高原对冷空气爆发影响的个例分析(一)

本文通过对1979年4月10—13日在我国的一次寒潮爆发过程进行了有、无地形及修改地形的数值试验和对比分析,发现高原地形对冷空气活动强度及路径等有明显的影响:(1)由于高原地形的存在使冷空气快速沿地形边缘向南推移,冷锋偏南,给我国平原地区带来较大的降温及较多的降雨。(2)这种冷锋的移动快而达到很偏南的纬度主要是低层冷空气沿高原地形边缘绕流所产生的。(3)如果高原大地形不存在,这时冷空气直侵印度,给印度北方带来强降温。     

我国北方地区一次沙尘暴天气特征分析

使用美国大气中心6h一次的NCEP再分析格点资料(1.0°×1.0°)对2002年3月18—22日发生在我国北方的大范围沙尘暴天气成因进行分析。从环流形势、物理量诊断、高空急流等方面进行研究分析,结果表明:蒙古气旋是这次沙尘暴天气的主要影响系统,这次气旋发生发展在斜压区,气旋的发展阶段温度平流作用明显。沙尘暴过程主要是由气旋冷锋及锋后地面大风触发的,地面大风的形成与气旋发展、锋后冷平流及高空急流动量下传有关。     

Diagnosis of mesoscale structures in cases of lee cyclogenesis during ALPEX

Summary Several cases of lee cyclogenesis that occurred during ALPEX-SOP have been analyzed, with the aim of separating the large scale structures from the subsynoptic/meso-a scale features that are characteristic of this meteorological phenomenon. The results presented here are mainly based on composites of the analyzed cases. We assume that the deformation caused by the orography can be, at least to a reasonable extent, isolated from the undisturbed state using scale separation. The analysis technique we employ provides the scale separation as built-in in the interpolation algorithm. The scale separation error due to the large inhomogeneities of the data density distribution is partly corrected using a method described in the text. The orographic disturbance appears in different mesoscale fields as a quasiantisymmetric dipolar structure. For example, high/low pressure, cold/warm temperature and anticyclonic/cyclonic couplets characterize the mesoscale fields near the Alps. A qualitative agreement is found with the structure of the orographically induced perturbations predicted by the normal mode theory of lee cyclogenesis.With 7 Figures     

Physical influences on east coast cyclogenesis

Abstract

Three examples of cyclogenesis off the east toast of North America are studied using an 8‐level primitive equations model. The model includes input of sensible and latent heat from the sea surface, both parameterized convective and large‐scale precipitation and release of latent heat, surface frictional drag and orography. The grid size is 190 km. Twenty‐four‐hour prognoses were made for four time periods with similar results: orography and fluxes of sensible and latent heat from the ocean were of little consequence, while the effect of the land‐water roughness contrast was significant.

The lack of appreciable orographic influences is attributable to the fact that the Lows studied crossed the Appalachians south of the highest terrain. The cyclones formed along well‐developed frontal systems where the difference between air or dew‐point temperature and sea temperature in the warm sector was small or negative. Consequently fluxes of both sensible and latent heat near the Low centres during cyclogenesis were small. They were large, as expected, in the cold air flowing out over the water to the rear of the cyclones. However, the Laplacian of the flures did not favour intensification at the Low centres. Moreover, heating in the cold air destroys available potential energy. It is true that the warm sector air probably had an initial vertical temperature and moisture distribution conducive to precipitation and release of latent heat. However, this arose due to fluxes prior to deepening. The dramatic effect of frictiona drag was associated with a decrease in low‐level mass convergence as the Lows moved from rough land to smooth sea.     

A mechanism of Alpine lee cyclogenesis as revealed by a quasigeostrophic variational filter

Summary Mechanisms associated with Alpine lee cyclogenesis during the early phase of their generation are investigated using a variational quasigeostrophic filter technique. It was possible to extract the quasigeostrophic signal from the available analyzed real data set.The results presented here are for the 11–12 March 1982, an example of so-called orographically induced lee cyclogenesis. Non-quasigeostrophic fields, calculated as a difference between observations and the quasigeostrophic fields, show significant magnitudes indicating the possible importance of non-quasigeostrophic processes. A dipole structure in the residual geopotential field was observed, similar to the results of numerical model experiments. Also, a strong upper-level non-quasigeostrophic divergence was found in the Alpine region 24 hours prior to lee cyclogenesis, lasting for 6–12 hours. On the other hand, quasigeostrophic results indicate only a local effect of mountain slopes, suggesting possibly a dominant role of the low-level blocking. A hypothetical scenario of Alpine lee cyclogenesis is proposed, based on results obtained here.With 14 Figures     

DISTORTION AND OCCLUSION OF COLD FRONTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF OROGRAPHY

Following classical theory,a two-layer frontal model is designed.It assumes that frontal surface is the zero-order discontinuity of density.In this paper,the model is used to study orographically distorted and occluded fronts.It is indicated that the distortion and occlusion of cold fronts are different under different conditions of orography.Frontal intensity also influences the distortion and occlusion.Some rules are revealed and compared with observations.In addition,we have analysed the vertical structure of cold front above mountains and found that frontal surface may be bulged under the influence of orography when it climes the mountain.The bulge of frontal surface is just like the bore as pointed out by Long(1972) when he analysed fluid over obstacles.