A fast GIS-based risk assessment for tephra fallout: the example of Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador-Part II: vulnerability and risk assessment

In order to develop efficient strategies for risk mitigation and emergency management, planners require the assessment of both the expected hazard (frequency and magnitude) and the vulnerability of exposed elements. This paper presents a GIS-based methodology to produce qualitative to semi-qualitative thematic risk assessments for tephra fallout around explosive volcanoes, designed to operate with datasets of variable precision and resolution depending on data availability. Due to the constant increase in population density around volcanoes and to the wide dispersal of tephra from volcanic plumes, a large range of threats, such as roof collapses, damage to crops, blockage of vital lifelines and health problems, concern even remote communities. To address these issues, we have assessed the vulnerability and the risk levels for five themes relevant to tephra fallout: (1) social, (2) economic, (3) environmental, (4) physical and (5) territorial. Risk and vulnerability indices for each theme are averaged to the fourth level of administrative unit (parroquia, parish). In a companion paper, Biass and Bonadonna (this volume) present a probabilistic hazard assessment for tephra fallout at Cotopaxi volcano (Ecuador) using the advection-diffusion model TEPHRA2, which is based on field investigations and a global eruption database (Global Volcanism Program, GVP). The scope of this paper is to present a new approach to risk assessment specifically designed for tephra fallout, based on a comprehensive hazard assessment of Cotopaxi volcano. Our results show that an eruption of moderate magnitude (i.e. VEI 4) would result in the possible collapse of ??9,000 houses in the two parishes located close to the volcano. Our study also reveals a high risk on agriculture, closely linked to the economic sector, and a possible accessibility problem in case of an eruption of any size, as tephra is likely to affect the only major road running from Quito to Latacunga (Panamerican Highway). As a result, this method fits into the ongoing effort to better characterize and evaluate volcanic risk, and more specifically the risk associated with tephra fallout. Although this methodology relies on some assumptions, it can serve as a rapid and efficient starting point for further investigations of the risk level around explosive volcanoes.     

Volcanic Hazard in New Zealand: Scaling and Attenuation Relations for Tephra fall deposits from Taupo Volcano

This paper is a first step in developing a probabilistic hazard model for tephra fall deposits in New Zealand. The database consists of measurements of tephra thickness and eruptive volumefrom 32 past eruptive events at Taupo Volcano. From these are derivedrelations for the mean and maximum tephra thickness as a function ofevent volume and distance from the vent, and for the area enclosed byan isopach as a function of tephra thickness and volume. Thedirectional effects due to wind do not vary appreciably over thevolcanic region of New Zealand. The main feature of wind velocity is aflow to the east that becomes more consistent at higher altitudes. Thelarger the eruption, the more the location of the deposit of maximumthickness (the centre of deposit) tends to be displaced to the east ofvent. A directional attenuation relation about the centre of deposit isderived from the Taupo data. This, in combination with arelation for the position of the centre of deposit relative to thevent, provides a means of estimating the probability of a giventhickness of tephra fall deposit being exceeded at any distance anddirection from the vent in an eruption of given volume.     

长白山火山灾害及其对大型工程建设的影响

长白山火山是世界著名的活火山,历史时期有过多次喷发,有再次爆发的危险.长白山火山最大的一次爆发发生在公元1199-1200年,这次大爆发的火山灰最远到达距其1 000km远的日本北部.依据这次大爆发由火山喷发空中降落堆积物、火山碎屑流和火山泥流造成的巨大火山灾害,预测了长白山火山未来爆发火山灾害的类型、强度和范围,并编制了长白山火山未来爆发火山喷发空中降落堆积物灾害预测图、火山碎屑流灾害预测图和火山泥流灾害预测图.该研究可预防和减轻火山灾害,指导核电站等大型工程选址.     

Alert system to mitigate tephra fallout hazards at Mt. Etna Volcano,Italy

Volcanic eruptions may create a wide range of risks in inhabited areas and, as a consequence, major economic damage to the surrounding territory. An example of volcanic hazard was given between 1998 and 2001 by Mt. Etna volcano, in Italy, with its frequent paroxysmal explosive activity that caused more than a hundred fire-fountain episodes. In the period January–June 2000, in particular, 64 lava fountains took place at the Southeast Crater. During the most intense explosive phase of each episode, a sustained column often formed, reaching up to 6 km above the eruptive vent. Then, the column started to expand laterally causing more or less copious tephra fallout on the slopes of Etna; ash and lapilli, therefore, constituted a serious danger for vehicular and air traffic. A software and hardware warning system was developed to mitigate the volcanic hazard indicating the areas affected by potential ash and lapilli fallout. The alert system was mainly based on the good correspondence between the pattern of volcanic tremor amplitude and the evolution of explosive activity. When a fixed tremor threshold was exceeded, a semiautomatic process started to send faxes to Civil Defence and Municipalities directly affected by tephra fallout, together with information on wind directions from the Meteorological Office. The application of this methodology, during the last 14 eruptive episodes in 2000 and the 14 events occurred in 2001, demonstrated the good correspondence between the forecasts on the areas affected by tephra fallout and the effective tephra distribution on land. Despite the integrity of the performance provided by the alert system, small discrepancies occurred in the technical procedure of alerting, for which possible solutions have been discussed. The improvement of this type of system, could become basic for the Etnean region and be proposed for similar volcanic areas throughout the world.     

Small shards and long distances — three cryptotephra layers from the Nahe palaeolake including the first discovery of Laacher See Tephra in Schleswig-Holstein (Germany)

Investigations of Lateglacial to Early Holocene lake sediments from the Nahe palaeolake (northern Germany) provided a high-resolution palynological record. To increase the temporal resolution of the record a targeted search for cryptotephra was carried out on the basis of pollen stratigraphy. Three cryptotephra horizons were detected and geochemically identified as G10ka series tephra (a Saksunarvatn Ash), Vedde Ash and Laacher See Tephra. Here we present the first geochemically confirmed finding of the ash from the Laacher See Eruption in Schleswig-Holstein—extending the so far detected fallout fan of the eruption further to the north-west. These finds enable direct stratigraphical correlations and underline the potential of the site for further investigations.     

Volcanic ash and tsunami record of the Minoan Late Bronze Age Eruption (Santorini) in a distal setting,southwestern Turkey

We present the volcanic ash and tsunami record of the Minoan Late Bronze Age Eruption of Santorini (LBAES) in a distal setting in southwestern Turkey. In one of the drilled cores at the Letoon Hellenic antique site on Eşençay Delta, we encountered a 4 cm thick tephra deposit underlain by 46 cm thick tsunami-deposited sand (tsunamite), and an organic-rich layer that we ¹⁴C dated to 3295 ± 30 bp or 1633 bc. The relationship between Santorini distal volcanic ash and underlying tsunamite is described and interpreted. LBAES occurred in four main phases: (1) plinian; (2) phreatomagmatic; (3) phreatomagmatic with mudflows; and (4) ignimbritic flows and co-ignimbrite tephra falls. In this study, we aim to understand which eruptive phases generate distal ash during the Minoan eruptive sequence by examining the 3D surface morphology of ash formed by different fragmentation processes. To that end, we used numerous statistical multivariates, 3D fractal dimension of roughness, and a new textural parameter of surface area-3D/plotted area-2D to characterise the eruption dynamics. Based on ash surface morphologies and the calculated statistical parameters, we propose that that distal ash is represented by a single layer composed of well-mixed (coarse to fine) magmatic and phreatomagmatic ash.     

A history of violence: magma incubation,timing and tephra distribution of the Los Chocoyos supereruption (Atitlán Caldera,Guatemala)

The climactic Los Chocoyos (LCY) eruption from Atitlán caldera (Guatemala) is a key chronostratigraphic marker for the Quaternary period given the extensive distribution of its deposits that reached both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Despite LCY tephra being an important marker horizon, a radioisotopic age for this eruption has remained elusive. Using zircon (U–Th)/He geochronology, we present the first radioisotopically determined eruption age for the LCY of 75 ± 2 ka. Additionally, the youngest zircon crystallization ²³⁸U–²³⁰Th rim ages in their respective samples constrain eruption age maxima for two other tephra units that erupted from Atitlán caldera, W-Fall (130 ⁺¹⁶/₋₁₄ ka) and I-Fall eruptions (56 ^+8.2/_−7.7 ka), which under- and overlie LCY tephra, respectively. Moreover, rim and interior zircon dating and glass chemistry suggest that before eruption silicic magma was stored for >80 kyr, with magma accumulation peaking within ca. 35 kyr before the LCY eruption during which the system may have developed into a vertically zoned magma chamber. Based on an updated distribution of LCY pyroclastic deposits, a new conservatively estimated volume of ~1220 ± 150 km³ is obtained (volcanic explosivity index VEI > 8), which confirms the LCY eruption as the first-ever recognized supereruption in Central America.     

The 18.7 ka phreatomagmatic flank eruption on Etna (Italy): relationship between eruptive activity and sedimentary basement setting

This paper documents a phreatomagmatic flank eruption that occurred 18 700 ± 100 a BP , on the lower north-eastern slope of Etna during the Ellittico volcano activity, which produced fall and surge deposits. This type of eruption is connected to a sedimentary basement ridge at Etna. The interaction between the rising magma and the shallow groundwater hosted in the volcanic pile overlying the impermeable sediments resulted in phreatomagmatic instead of strombolian activity. Three eruptive phases are distinguished based on field and analytical data: (i) an explosive phreatomagmatic opening, (ii) a main phase producing coarse lithic-rich fallout and a strombolian deposit, and (iii) the final pulsating surge-forming phase. The discovery of this phreatomagmatic flank eruption, which occurred at lower altitude, raises important issues for previous hazard assessments at Etna.     

冰岛卡特拉火山未来喷发特征的判定

卡特拉火山近期活动频繁,其喷发概率、喷发规模、喷发方式及影响都备受瞩目.通过收集整理若干资料和分析计算,采用“将古论今”的研究方法,初步得到了关于卡特拉火山未来可能的行为方式及影响.根据卡特拉火山喷发的历史规律,估算2013年的喷发概率约为30%.卡特拉火山下次喷发规模可能为4级或5级,其喷发方式有3种:其一是岩浆冲破巨厚冰层发生爆破性喷发;其二是正常的岩浆喷发;其三是夭折的喷发.但根据现有资料分析,卡特拉火山最有可能是以见不到喷发的形式结束这次不稳定性活动.      

Volcanic ash clouds affecting Northern Europe: the long view

The volcanic ash or ‘tephra’ cloud resulting from the relatively small (volume and VEI) eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull in 2010 caused major air travel disruption, at substantial global economic cost. On several occasions in the past few centuries, Icelandic eruptions have created ash and/or sulphur dioxide clouds which were detected over Europe (e.g. Hekla in 1947, Askja in 1875, and Laki in 1783). However, these historical observations do not represent a complete record of events serious enough to disrupt aviation in Europe. The only feasible evidence for this is within the geological tephra record. Ash layers are preserved in bogs and lakes where tephra deposited from the atmosphere is incorporated in the peat/mud. In this article we: 1, introduce the analysis of the Northern European sedimentary tephra record; 2, discuss our findings and modelling results; 3, highlight how these were misinterpreted by the popular media; and 4, use this experience to outline several existing problems with current tephra studies and suggest agendas for future research.     

The Hekla 1947 tephra in the north of Ireland: regional distribution,concentration and geochemistry

A cryptotephra layer from the eruption of Hekla in 1947 has recently been discovered in Irish peatlands. This tephra layer represents the most recent deposition of volcanic ash in the UK prior to the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in 2010. Here we examine the concentration and geochemistry of the Hekla 1947 tephra in 14 peat profiles from across Northern Ireland. Electron probe microanalysis of individual tephra shards (n = 91) reveals that the tephra is of dacitic–andesitic geochemistry and is highly similar to the Hekla 1510 tephra, although spheroidal carbonaceous particle profiles can be used for successful discrimination of the two layers. The highest concentrations of Hekla 1947 are found in western sites, probably reflecting the pathway of the ash fall event due to the prevailing wind direction. Comparable tephra concentrations from two cores (1 km apart) from a single bog and from nearby sites may suggest that tephra shard concentrations in peat profiles reflect ash fallout densities across a specific region, rather than site‐specific factors associated with peatlands. This paper firmly establishes Hekla 1947 as a useful chronostratigraphic marker for the twentieth century, although within a restricted zone. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A 90,000-year tephrostratigraphic framework of Aso Volcano, Japan

A detailed 90,000-year tephrostratigraphic framework of Aso Volcano, southwestern Japan, has been constructed to understand the post-caldera eruptive history of the volcano. Post-caldera central cones were initiated soon after the last caldera-forming pyroclastic-flow eruption (90 ka), and have produced voluminous tephra and lava flows. The tephrostratigraphic sequence preserved above the caldera-forming stage deposits reaches a total thickness of 100 m near the eastern caldera rim. The sequence is composed mainly of mafic scoria-fall and ash-fall deposits but 36 silicic pumice-fall deposits are very useful key beds for correlation of the stratigraphic sequence. Explosive, silicic pumice-fall deposits that fell far beyond the caldera have occurred at intervals of about 2500 years in the post-caldera activity. Three pumice-fall deposits could be correlated with lava flows or an edifice in the western part of the central cones, although the other silicic tephra beds were erupted at unknown vents, which are probably buried by the younger products from the present central cones. Most of silicic eruptions produced deposits smaller than 0.1 km³, but bulk volumes of two silicic eruptions producing the Nojiri pumice (84 ka) and Kusasenrigahama pumice (Kpfa; 30 ka) were on the order of 1 km³ (VEI 5). The largest pyroclastic eruption occurred at the Kusasenrigahama crater about 30 ka. This catastrophic eruption began with a dacitic lava flow and thereafter produced Kpfa (2.2 km³). Total tephra volume in the past 90,000 years is estimated at about 18.1 km³ (dense rock equivalent: DRE), whereas total volume for edifices of the post-caldera central cones is calculated at about 112 km³, which is six times greater than the former. Therefore, the average magma discharge rate during the post-caldera stage of Aso Volcano is estimated at about 1.5 km³/ky, which is similar to the rates of other Quaternary volcanoes in Japan.     

Using scoria cones,lava lakes and tephra islands to understand the evolution of basaltic fissure eruptions

Basaltic fissure eruptions are the most common eruption type on Earth. They are characterised by linear lava fountains that construct pyroclastic cones and expansive lava flow fields. The histories of these eruptions can be notoriously difficult to interpret due to the geochemical homogeneity of the tephra, and due to the fact that many of the early deposits become buried during later stages of the eruption. Furthermore, observing the construction of the pyroclastic cones is inherently difficult and dangerous due to the presence of active lava fountains. However, glacial outbursts in the north of Iceland have dissected the products of a Holocene fissure eruption. Examination of the pyroclastic cones, tephra deposits and a solidified lava lake along the fissure has allowed us to elucidate the complex eruptive processes that occur during these eruptions.     

Old Crow tephra across eastern Beringia: a single cataclysmic eruption at the close of Marine Isotope Stage 6

Old Crow tephra is the largest and most widespread Quaternary eruption presently known in eastern Beringia. Its major- and trace-element geochemistry, Fe-Ti oxides, and stratigraphic and paleoecological context indicate that it is the result of a single cataclysmic eruption. The proximal region may well have experienced tephra fallout from small eruptions just prior to or after the Old Crow event, but there is no evidence to indicate that the distal area was affected. We recalculate the glass fission-track age at 124 ± 10 ka, which, coupled with stratigraphic and paleoenvironmental reconstructions, indicates that deposition occurred prior to development of the last interglacial boreal forest, which suggests a latest Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 6 age. The bulk tephra volume erupted is estimated by three different approaches, that are in broad agreement at ～200 km³, but this result must be considered as tentative given the poor controls on definition of isopachs over such a large area. The source caldera, although presently unrecognized, is located in the eastern Aleutian arc, possibly at or near the Emmons Lake volcanic center.     

Origin of post‐Minoan caves and volcaniclastic cave fill,Thera (Santorini), Greece

The Aegean island of Thera (Santorini) was covered by tephra from its cataclysmic Late Bronze Age (ca. 3600 yr B.P.) eruption. Vertical exposures of the eruptive sequence show secondary, nonvolcanic, circular (in cross section) features composed of stratified sediment. Many are inaccessible from the floors of modern quarries and appear to be caves filled with younger sediment, but show no connection to the land surface. A filled cave was found in the wall of a modern gully outside the modern quarries, and a filled cave was found in a terrace scarp, well above the modern gully. Natural (and probably rapid) incision by gullies into the thick tephra deposit left many locations with lateral access to tephra. Inhabitants from post‐Minoan to recent times excavated tephra for materials and buildings, and caves were subsequently filled by sporadic (possibly seasonal) flood events that deposited sediment. These gullies may have provided access for modern tephra removal that isolated the filled caves high on the modern quarry walls. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

中国火山灾害区划研究历史回顾与未来展望

火山灾害区划是防御和减轻火山灾害的一种有效的方法.以中国境内规模最大、喷发危险性最高、潜在火山灾害最强的长白山天池火山为例,回顾我国火山灾害区划研究历史,讨论典型火山喷发活动引起的主要火山灾害类型、成灾机制和灾害效应,总结不同历史阶段各种不同类型火山灾害区划图的优缺点,并结合目前国际上火山灾害区划的研究现状和编图技术,对我国未来编制具有概率含义的火山灾害区划图的思路提出展望.     

Using geochemistry as a tool for correlating proximal andesitic tephra: case studies from Mt Rainier (USA) and Mt Ruapehu (New Zealand)

Volcanic hazards assessments at andesite stratovolcanoes rely on the assessment of frequency and magnitude of past events. The identification and correlation of proximal and distal andesitic tephra, which record the explosive eruptive history, are integral to such assessments. These tephra are potentially valuable stratigraphic marker beds useful to the temporal correlation and age dating of Quaternary volcanic, volcaniclastic and epiclastic sedimentary deposits with which they are interbedded. At Mt Ruapehu (New Zealand) and Mt Rainier (USA), much of the detail of the recent volcanic record remains unresolved because of the difficulty in identifying proximal tephra. This study investigates the value of geochemical methods in discriminating andesitic tephra. Our dataset comprises petrological and geochemical analyses of tephra that span the late Quaternary eruptive record of each volcano. Our data illustrate that andesitic tephra are remarkably heterogeneous in composition. Tephra compositions fluctuate widely over short time intervals, and there are no simple or systematic temporal trends in geochemistry within either eruptive record. This complexity in tephra geochemistry limits the application of geochemical approaches to tephrostratigraphic studies, beyond a general characterisation useful to provenance assignation. Petrological and geochemical data suggest that the products of andesite systems are inherently variable and therefore intractable to discrimination by simple geochemical methods alone. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Water,ice and mud: lahars and lahar hazards at ice‐ and snow‐clad volcanoes

Large‐volume lahars are significant hazards at ice and snow covered volcanoes. Hot eruptive products produced during explosive eruptions can generate a substantial volume of melt water that quickly evolves into highly mobile flows of ice, sediment and water. At present it is difficult to predict the size of lahars that can form at ice and snow covered volcanoes due to their complex flow character and behaviour. However, advances in experiments and numerical approaches are producing new conceptual models and new methods for hazard assessment. Eruption triggered lahars that are ice‐dominated leave behind thin, almost unrecognizable sedimentary deposits, making them likely to be under‐represented in the geological record.     

Tephrochronology of the Siple Dome ice core,West Antarctica: correlations and sources

A total of 24 tephra-bearing volcanic layers have been recognized between 550 and 987 m depth in the Siple Dome A (SDM-A) ice core, in addition to a number already recognized tephra in the upper 550 m (Dunbar et al., 2003, Kurbatov et al., 2006). The uniform composition and distinctive morphological of the particles composing these tephra layers suggest deposition as a result of explosive volcanic eruptions and that the layers therefore represent time-stratigraphic markers in the ice core. Despite the very fine grain size of these tephra (mostly less than 20 microns), robust geochemical compositions were determined by electron microprobe analysis. The source volcanoes for these tephra layers are largely found within the Antarctic plate. Statistical geochemical correlations tie nine of the tephra layers to known eruptions from Mt. Berlin, a West Antarctic volcano that has been very active for the past 100,000 years. Previous correlations were made to an eruption of Mt. Takahe, another West Antarctic volcano, and one to Mt. Hudson, located in South America (Kurbatov et al., 2006). The lowest tephra layer in the ice core, located at 986.21 m depth, is correlated to a source eruption with an age of 118.1 ± 1.3 ka, suggesting a chronological pinning point for the lower ice. An episode of anomalously high volcanic activity in the ice in the SDM-A core between 18 and 35 ka (Gow and Meese, 2007) appears to be related to eruptive activity of Mt. Berlin volcano. At least some of the tephra layers found in the SDM-A core appear to be the result of very explosive eruptions that spread ash across large parts of West Antarctica, off the West Antarctic coast, as well as also being recognized in East Antarctica (Basile et al., 2001, Narcisi et al., 2005, Narcisi et al., 2006). Some of these layers would be expected to should be found in other deep Antarctic ice cores, particularly ones drilled in West Antarctica, providing correlative markers between different cores. The analysis of the tephra layers in the Siple Dome core, along with other Antarctic cores, provides a timing framework for the relatively proximal Antarctic and South American volcanic eruptive events, allowing these to be distinguished from the tropical eruptions that may play a greater role in climate forcing.     

Estimation of tsunami hazard from volcanic activity — Suggested methodology with Augustine volcano,Alaska as an example

A general approach for the estimation of tsunami height and hazard in the vicinity of active volcanoes has been developed. An empirical relationship has been developed to estimate the height of the tsunami generated for an eruption of a given size. This relationship can be used to estimate the tsunami hazard based on the frequency of eruptive activity of a particular volcano. This technique is then applied to the estimation of tsunami hazard from the eruption of the Augustine volcano in Alaska. Modification of this approach to account for a less than satisfactory data base and differing volcanic characteristics is also discussed with the case of the Augustine volcano as an example. This approach can be used elsewhere with only slight modifications and, for the first time, provides a technique to estimate tsunami hazard from volcanic activity, similar to a well-established approach for the estimation of tsunami hazard from earthquake activity.