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1.
Recent trends in pre-monsoon daily temperature extremes over India   总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6  
Extreme climate and weather events are increasingly being recognized as key aspects of climate change. Pre-monsoon season (March–May) is the hottest part of the year over almost the entire South Asian region, in which hot weather extremes including heat waves are recurring natural hazards having serious societal impacts, particularly on human health. In the present paper, recent trends in extreme temperature events for the pre-monsoon season have been studied using daily data on maximum and minimum temperatures over a well-distributed network of 121 stations for the period 1970–2005. For this purpose, time series of extreme temperature events have been constructed for India as a whole and seven homogeneous regions, viz., Western Himalaya (WH), Northwest (NW), Northeast (NE), North Central (NC), East coast (EC), West coast (WC) and Interior Peninsula (IP).  相似文献   

2.
A state-of-the-art regional climate modelling system, known as PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK is applied over the Indian domain to investigate the impact of global warming on the cyclonic disturbances such as depressions and storms. The PRECIS simulations at 50 × 50 km horizontal resolution are made for two time slices, present (1961–1990) and the future (2071–2100), for two socioeconomic scenarios A2 and B2. The model simulations under the scenarios of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosols are analysed to study the likely changes in the frequency, intensity and the tracks of cyclonic disturbances forming over north Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) and the Indian landmass during monsoon season. The model overestimates the frequency of cyclonic disturbances over the Indian subcontinent in baseline simulations (1961–1990). The change is evaluated towards the end of present century (2071–2100) with respect to the baseline climate. The present study indicates that the storm tracks simulated by the model are southwards as compared to the observed tracks during the monsoon season, especially for the two main monsoon months, viz., July and August. The analysis suggests that the frequency of cyclonic disturbances forming over north Indian Ocean is likely to reduce by 9% towards the end of the present century in response to the global warming. However, the intensity of cyclonic disturbances is likely to increase by about 11% compared to the present.  相似文献   

3.
Daily data of minimum and maximum temperature from 76 meteorological stations for 1960–2010 are used to detect the annual and seasonal variations of temperature extremes in the arid region, China. The Mann–Kendall test and Sen estimator are used to assess the significance of the trend and amount of change, respectively. Fifteen temperature indices are examined. The temperature extremes show patterns consistent with warming, with a large proportion of stations showing statistically significant trends. Warming trends in indices derived from daily minimum temperature are of greater magnitudes than those from maximum temperature, and stations along the Tianshan Mountains have larger trend magnitudes. The decreases in frequency for cold extremes mainly occur in summer and autumn, while warm extremes show significant increases in frequency in autumn and winter. For the arid region as a whole, the occurrence of cold nights and cold days has decreased by ?1.89 and ?0.89 days/decade, respectively, and warm nights and warm days has increased by 2.85 and 1.37 days/decade, respectively. The number of frost days and ice days exhibit significant decreasing trends at the rates of ?3.84 and ?2.07 days/decade. The threshold indices also show statistically significant increasing trends, with the extreme lowest temperatures faster than highest temperatures. The diurnal temperature range has decreased by 0.23 °C/decade, which is in accordance with the more rapid increases in minimum temperature than in maximum temperature. The results of this study will be useful for local human mitigation to alterations in water resources and ecological environment in the arid region of China due to the changes of temperature extremes.  相似文献   

4.
利用1961 - 2017年逐日平均、 最低、 最高气温资料、 DMSP/OLS卫星夜晚灯光数据, 定量分析了城市化对辽宁省平均气温和极端气温指数趋势变化的影响。研究表明: 辽宁省气温呈显著增加趋势, 城市站增温速率明显快于乡村站; 平均最低气温增温率最快, 平均气温次之, 平均最高气温相对较慢; 四季增温速率依次为: 冬季>春季>秋季>夏季; 最低气温的城市化影响贡献率最大, 平均气温次之, 最高气温相对较小; 城市站最低气温的明显升高和最高气温增幅较小, 必将导致日较差明显减小和日较差城市化影响贡献率的增大。城市化加剧了辽宁省极端低温事件的显著减少和极端高温事件的明显增加, 城市化对极端气温事件影响显著。与冷事件有关的极端气温指数的城市化影响均为负值, 与暖事件有关的均为正值; 相对指数的城市化影响贡献率较大, 持续时间指数次之, 除气温日较差以外的绝对指数相对较小。基于最低气温的极端气温指数比基于最高气温的极端气温指数受城市化影响更显著, 其原因可能是城市热岛强度的非对称性以及城市站和乡村站气溶胶浓度之间的差异, 导致最高气温的增加没有最低气温的增加显著。  相似文献   

5.
The present paper has made a comparison of major similarities and differences of extreme cold events between the cold and warm periods for recent 50 years, in order to gain a better insight into the impact of the global warming on extreme cold events in China. Two typical events of low temperature, ice freezing and snow disasters that occurred in January 2008 and in the winter of 1954/1955, respectively, are selected as representative cases for the cold period (1950’s–1970’s) and the warm period (1980’s-present). The contrasting study has revealed that these two events both occurred under long-persistent blocking circulation over Eurasian continent, with continuous invasions of strong cold air into China mainland. They nearly brought about similar weather disasters such as extensive low temperature, record-breaking freezing rains and exceptionally heavy snowfalls. However, due to active northward transport of warm and moist air from Bay of Bengal and Indo-China Peninsula in the warm period, the January 2008 case had longer freezing rain days and heavier snowstorms in South China, thus leading to much more severe damage to electric grids and transportations. The case of the 1954/1955 winter was a stronger, extreme cold event than the case of January 2008, in terms of magnitudes of temperature drop and severity of impact on river icing. It was gradually recovered to normal condition while the case of January 2008 had a very rapid recovery to warming condition due to impact of the global warming.  相似文献   

6.
Fengjin  Xiao  Lianchun  Song 《Natural Hazards》2011,58(3):1333-1344
The trends of global warming are increasingly significant, especially in the middle and high latitude regions of the northern hemisphere, where the impact of climate change on extreme events is becoming more noticeable. Northeast China is located in a high latitude region and is sensitive to climate change. Extreme minimum temperatures causing cold damage during the warm season is a major type of agro-meteorological disaster in Northeast China, which causes serious reductions in crop yield. In this paper, we analyzed the temporal and spatial trends in the frequency of extreme minimum temperatures during the warm season (from May to September) during 1956–2005 in Northeast China. Abrupt climatic changes were identified using the Mann–Kendall test. The results show that the frequency of extreme minimum temperature days during the warm season in Northeast China decreases significantly from 1956 to 2005 with a background of climate warming. The highest number of extreme minimum temperature days occurred in the 1970s and 1980s, and there was an abrupt climatic change in 1993. The spatial analysis identified that the north and southeast of the region experienced a larger decrease in the number of extreme low temperature days than the west and south of the region. Rice, sorghum, corn, and soybeans are most vulnerable to cold damage. In severe low temperature years, the average crop yield was reduced by 15.2% in Northeast China.  相似文献   

7.
PRECIS模式对宁夏气候变化情景的模拟分析*   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
使用英国Hadley气候中心区域气候模式PRECIS,分析了B2温室气体排放情景下,相对于气候基准时段1961~1990年宁夏2071~2100年(2080s)地面气温、降水量等的变化。结果表明:PRECIS模式能够很好地模拟宁夏气温的分布特征,对夏季最高气温的模拟效果好于冬季最低气温;较好地模拟出了宁夏降水南多北少的空间差异特征,且对夏季降水的模拟能力明显强于年均降水和冬季降水。相对于气候基准时段, 在B2情景下,2080s宁夏年平均、冬季和夏季平均气温均明显上升,宁夏北部和南部的部分地区气温上升幅度最大,夏季平均气温和最高气温上升幅度大于冬季平均气温和最低气温;未来宁夏年、冬季和夏季平均降水较基准时段均有所增加,但降水随年代际却呈减少趋势,由于气温和降水的气候变率加大,2080s宁夏出现高温、干旱、洪涝等异常天气事件的可能性增大。  相似文献   

8.
Chemical and isotopic compositions of three hot springs and one cold spring in the Kirkgecit geothermal field, located 15 km southwest of Canakkale-Biga in the northwest of Turkey, were monitored five times during 2005 and 2007. The physico-chemical characteristics of the hot springs are average discharge 3–3.5 L/s, surface temperature 45–52°C, pH 8.9–9.3, and electrical conductivity (EC) 620–698 μS/cm. The cold spring has a temperature of 12–13°C, pH 7.5–8.3, and EC 653–675 μS/cm. The hot waters are Na-SO4 type, whereas the cold water is Ca-HCO3 type. Chemical geothermometers suggest that the reservoir temperature is around 80–100°C. The isotopic data (oxygen-18, deuterium and tritium) indicate that the thermal waters are formed by local recharge and deep circulation of meteoric waters.  相似文献   

9.
1961-2012年辽宁省极端气温事件气候变化特征   总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2  
利用辽宁省52个气象台站逐日平均气温、 最高气温和最低气温数据, 使用国际通用的10种极端气候指数, 研究了1961-2012年辽宁省极端气温事件的气候变化特征. 结果表明: 年平均极端气温事件空间分布存在明显的地区差异. 时间尺度上, 1961-2012年辽宁省年及四季极端暖事件(暖昼日数、 暖夜日数、 夏季日数、 热带夜数和热浪持续指数)呈增加趋势, 极端冷事件(冷昼日数、 冷夜日数、 结冰日数、 霜冻日数和寒潮持续指数)呈减少趋势; 极端暖事件在20世纪90年代中期开始明显增加, 极端冷事件在20世纪80年代末期开始显著减少; 极端暖事件的变化速率要小于极端冷事件. 辽宁省气温日较差有增大的趋势, 极端暖(冷)事件的增加(减少)在秋季(冬季)最为显著. 空间变化上, 极端气温事件在全省基本都呈一致的增加或减少的分布. 多数极端气温事件均存在8 a左右的周期, 检测到的突变的时间大致在20世纪80年代中期到90年代末期. 20世纪80年代末期辽宁省气候变暖后, 极端暖事件和冷事件均有明显的增加和减少.  相似文献   

10.
This paper reveals the nature of flood-season discharge and the associated impact on the upper and middle Yangtze river basin, on the basis of a historical database of daily discharges recorded at the Yichang (1865–1985) and Hankou (1878–1988) hydrological stations. Results show the period of discharge fluctuations of 2–6a, which is significant during 1878–1900 and 1915–1975 at Yichang station and the period of 2–7a during 1865–1905 and 1925–1975 at Hankou station. Within these periods, a major period of 2.9–3.5a and two secondary periods of 7–8a and 13.9–16.5a can be further identified from both stations. Our observation verifies that the fluctuations of streamflows of the upper and middle Yangtze River are fairly consistent with the periodicities of the Asia monsoon precipitation and ENSO event, reflecting coupling effect on the fluctuations of discharges in the Yangtze basin. In the 1920s–1960s, intensified variability of streamflows of the upper and middle Yangtze River was closely associated with warming temperature in the basin and in China as well. In 1975–1988, insignificant discharge fluctuations recorded at both stations can be chiefly attributed to human activities, i.e., the large number of reservoirs constructed and associated increasing capacity of water storage, which has largely weakened the discharge fluctuations throughout the basin.  相似文献   

11.
Observational evidence proved that even when a borehole is in “fully” stabilized conditions, temperature data may exhibit certain unrest resembling irregular oscillations in the order of hundredths or (in the extreme case) even tenths of degree. Temperature was monitored in complicated hydrogeological conditions in the Yaxcopoil-1 hole (Chicxulub impact structure, Mexico). Two experiments are reported: (a) 20-day monitoring when a logger was located in the center of the high temperature gradient anomaly produced by the cold wave slowly propagating downwards and (b) simultaneous three-loggers 18-day monitoring with loggers located above, in and below the anomaly. All observed temperature–time series displayed intermittent oscillations of temperature with sharp gradients and large fluctuations over all observed time scales. While the “upper” and “lower” records revealed quasi-periodic temperature variations, the “central” record shows fast temperature oscillations with strong up-and-down reversals, all with amplitudes up to a few tenths of degree. The observed temperature–time series were processed by recurrence and recurrence interval quantification as well as by spectral analyses. It is shown that fluid in a borehole, subject to thermal gradient, is stable, as far as the gradient remains below a certain critical value. At higher Rayleigh numbers, the periodic character of oscillations typical for “quiescent” regime is superseded by stochastic features. This “oscillatory” convection occurs due to instability of the horizontal boundary layers. In the specific case of the Yaxcopoil hole, the time series above and below the cold wave (characterized by relatively lower temperature gradients between 20 and 50 mK/m) contain a clear low frequency component produced by tidal forcing. This component dominates over the high frequency domain (periods from 10–15 to 1 min), which exhibit a scaling behavior. This pattern conspicuously changes in the center part of the cold wave, where the local temperature gradient exceeds 200 mK/m and where tidal forcing composes only ~3% of the signal.  相似文献   

12.
气候变暖背景下,极端寒冷事件仍有发生且常伴随严重的经济、社会影响,需要更为深入的研究。1929—1930年极端冷冬事件作为增暖背景下的极端冷事件,对其研究相对缺乏。通过收集并分析民国时期的气象器测资料和报刊资料,对1929—1930年中国极端冷冬事件进行探讨。结果表明: (1)本次冷冬的空间范围包括华北地区、长江流域(重庆至入海口段)和北疆地区,西北地区可能存在冷冬;寒冷的核心时段为1929年12月到次年1月。(2)本次冷冬时空范围内的地区月平均气温极端性强,华北、长江流域的12月份均温都超过十年一遇的冷事件水平,长江流域、北疆地区的1月份均温均超过五十年一遇水平;但月最低气温的极端性较弱,大部分站点月的最低温达到五年一遇水平,部分站点月超过十年一遇水平。(3)本次冷冬至少经历了7次区域性或全国性的降温事件,其中有3次降温事件达到全国性寒潮事件标准,时段分别为12月1—5日、12月16—20日和1月1—5日;其中第1次和第3次是影响中国的典型中路寒潮路径,第2次降温过程的时空特征不显著。(4)综合本次冷冬前旱后涝气候特点、该时段内ENSO(厄尔尼诺-南方涛动)指数的变化以及前人对ENSO和中国气候变异的关系研究,推测1920s末到1930s初期的气象灾害很大程度受影响于ENSO事件。  相似文献   

13.
An Assessment of Changes in Winter Cold and Warm Spells over Canada   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1  
Shabbar  Amir  Bonsal  Barrie 《Natural Hazards》2003,29(2):173-188
The recent Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC) indicated that observed 20th century changes in severalclimatic extremes are qualitatively consistent with those expected due to increasedgreenhouse gases. However, a lack of adequate data and analyses make conclusiveevidence of changing extremes somewhat difficult, particularly, in a global sense.In Canada, extreme temperature events, especially those during winter, can havemany adverse environmental and economic impacts. In light of the aforementionedIPCC report, the main focus of this analysis is to examine observed trends andvariability in the frequency, duration, and intensity of winter (Jan–Feb–Mar) cold and warm spells over Canada during the second half of the 20th century.Cold spell trends display substantial spatial variability across the country. From1950–1998, western Canada has experienced decreases in the frequency, duration, and intensity of cold spells, while in the east, distinct increases in the frequency and duration have occurred. These increases are likely associated with morefrequent occurrences of the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)during the last several decades. With regard to winter warm spells, significantincreases in both the frequency and duration of these episodes were observedacross most of Canada. One exception was found in the extreme northeasternregions, where warm spells are becoming shorter and less frequent. The resultsof this study are discussed within the context of climate warming expectations.  相似文献   

14.
The Effective Temperature (ET), which considers the aggregate effects of temperature, relative humidity and wind speed to describe the human thermal sensitivity, was employed to investigate the change of thermal conditions over Yunnan Province in China during the period of 1961-2014. The observation data used in the study is the high resolution gridded daily scale dataset CN05.1. The results show that over the northern part of the Province with high elevation mountains, colder temperature, lower relative humidity and stronger wind speed prevail, which leads to the lower ET values there. Opposite conditions are found over the low elevation areas in the south. An overall warming and decrease of both relative humidity and wind speed are observed in the latest decades in the whole Province, resulting in the general increase of ET over the region. Analysis based on the different assessment scales of ET shows that, more cold/extreme cold days and cool days exist in the north, while the cool days and comfortable days are mainly distributed in the south. General decrease of cold/extreme cold days is found over the region. An increase of the cool days in the north and decrease of it in the south, significant increase of the comfortable days, and increase of warm and hot/extreme hot days over portions in the south are reported. More climatic favorable days are found in all of the four seasons. Within the climate change context, the significant reduction of cold/extreme cold days and increase of climatic favorable days indicate that the climate in Yunnan Province so far tends to be more favorable for the human beings.  相似文献   

15.
The purpose of this paper is to analyse the trends and variability in extreme temperature indices. We examined climatological distribution of heat and cold waves of two important agro-climatic zones (South Bihar Alluvial Zone-IIIA and B), which is part of the middle Indo-Gangetic Basin and comprising 17 densely populated (1108 persons/km 2) districts of Bihar state. We used series of daily maximum and minimum temperature data from 1969 to 2013 of seven stations to calculate temperature indices, from which the trend, occurrence, duration and severity of heat and cold waves were estimated. Results revealed that, in a period of 45 years, zone-IIIA and B has experienced 251/182 and 337/140 average number of heat and cold events, respectively. Although the zone-IIIA on average is experiencing ≥8 heat and cold wave days per season, both these high frequency temperature extremes are decreasing at the rate 0.15 and 0.17 per year, respectively, with significance at 95% confidence level. Zone-IIIB on average is experiencing ≤5 heat and cold days per season, but heat waves have been found increasing at the rate 0.11 per year, whereas, a non-significant decreasing rate of 0.04/year was observed in cold waves. The study also inferred that heat waves of the month of May in zone-IIIA and of June in zone-IIIB are more frequent, hotter and longer than other months of hot weather period under study, whereas, the cold waves of month January are more frequent and longer, in both zones.  相似文献   

16.
This paper discusses the characteristics of high-impact weather events based on available data during 1960–2009, including the frequency and extreme value of rainstorm, typhoon, thunderstorm, strong wind, tornado, fog, haze and hot days in Shanghai, China. The frequency and spatial distribution of meteorological disasters and their impacts on both human and property during 1984–2009 are also discussed. Examination of the frequency indicates a decreasing trend in the occurrence of typhoon, thunderstorm, strong wind, tornado and fog, and an increasing trend in the occurrence of rainstorm, haze and hot days. The number of casualties caused by meteorological disasters appears to show a slight decreasing trend while the value of direct economic loss is increasing slightly during 1984–2009, and the number of collapsed or damaged buildings and the area of affected crops have no significant trend in Shanghai. These results can be attributed to the great efforts for prevention and mitigation of meteorological disasters made by Shanghai government in recent 60 years. With global climate change, urbanization and rapid economic development, Shanghai has become more vulnerable to high-impact weather and meteorological disaster, especially precipitation extreme, summer high temperature, haze and typhoon, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of natural disasters are quite useful and necessary for local government and the public in the future.  相似文献   

17.
In-situ IR measurements of OH species in quartz at high temperatures   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The nature of OH species in natural clear quartz was investigated by means of in-situ IR measurements over the temperature range –185 to 1000 °C. Reversible thermal behavior of OH species was examined for a sample pre-heated to 1000 °C for 1 hour. At room temperature, the IR spectrum of the quartz sample examined includes an intense absorption peak at 3379 cm–1 which has been assigned to an OH stretching vibration associated with Al substituting for Si (OH(Al)). The major spectral changes of the OH(Al) bond involve a systematic shift of its peak position and a decrease in its integral absorbance with temperature. A quasi-linear increase of the peak position from –185 to 400 °C is interpreted to be due to the change in the vibrational frequency of OH(Al) with hydrogen bond (H bond) distance. At higher temperatures, the IR frequency shows only a slight change, indicating a small influence of the H bond. On the other hand, the gradual decrease of the integral absorbance of OH(Al) with temperature indicates a decrease of this defect’s molar absorptivity without any reduction in defect concentration. This is interpreted to result from a decrease in dipole moment of OH(Al) with temperature. A sudden shift of the vibrational frequency from 3396 to 3386 cm–1 between 550 and 560 °C and a constant value of the integral absorbance from 535 to 570 °C were considered to be related to the change in H bond distance during the structural transformation of α-quartz to its β-form. The local environment of OH(Al) begins to change at temperatures below 570 °C, where the crystallographic α–β transition occurs. Received: 18 February 1998/ Accepted: 10 July 1998  相似文献   

18.
Throughout its history, the Earth has experienced global magmatic events that correlate with the formation of supercontinents. This suggests that the distribution of continents at the Earth's surface is fundamental in regulating mantle temperature. Nevertheless, most large igneous provinces (LIPs) are explained in terms of the interaction of a hot plume with the lithosphere, even though some do not show evidence for such a mechanism. The aggregation of continents impacts on the temperature and flow of the underlying mantle through thermal insulation and enlargement of the convection wavelength. Both processes tend to increase the temperature below the continental lithosphere, eventually triggering melting events without the involvement of hot plumes. This model, called mantle global warming, has been tested using 3D numerical simulations of mantle convection [Coltice, N., Phillips, B.R., Bertrand, H., Ricard, Y., Rey, P. (2007) Global warming of the mantle at the origin of flood basalts over supercontinents. Geology 35, 391–394.]. Here, we apply this model to several continental flood basalts (CFBs) ranging in age from the Mesozoic to the Archaean. Our numerical simulations show that the mantle global warming model could account for the peculiarities of magmatic provinces that developed during the formation of Pangea and Rodinia, as well as putative Archaean supercontinents such as Kenorland and Zimvaalbara.  相似文献   

19.
At present, researches on climate change of the Heihe River basin mainly focus on the relationship between basin climate change and regional water resources, regional desertification and dynamic climatic seasons of sandstorm, but less on climate change of oasis region, where there are more intense and frequent human activities. Based on data of precipitation, temperature, strong wind and dust events frequencies obtained from the six meteorological stations of Zhangye region in Heihe River basin, the features of climate change during 1968–2005 were carefully studied. Results show that the regional temperature rise rate exceeded the average level of China. The annual precipitation changed a little, but the precipitation had a slowly increasing trend in spring and winter. Frequencies of strong wind and sandstorm days show obviously descending trends, which had a close correlation with the regional temperature rise and the precipitation increase in spring and winter. Meanwhile, further human economic activities and exploitations to the oasis in the inland valley of arid regions also affected the climate change of this region, which has a sensitive and fragile eco-environment. __________ Translated from Journal of Desert Research, 2007, 27(6): 1048–1054 [译自: 中国沙漠]  相似文献   

20.
The inter-annual variation and linear trends of the surface air temperature in the regions in and around the Bay of Bengal have been studied using the time series data of monthly and annual mean temperature for 20–40 years period within 1951–1990. The study area extends from Pusma Camp of Nepal in the north and Kuala Lumpur of Malaysia in the south and between 80--100 ° E. The annual variation of temperature has also been studied using the mean monthly temperature for the variable time frames 1961–1975, 1976–1990 and 1961–1990. The trend of temperature has been analyzed using linear regression technique with the data from 1961–1990, which showed that the warming trend is dominant over the study areas except for a few stations. It has been found that Nepal shows predominant warming trends. Bangladesh and the adjacent areas of India and the northern part of Bay of Bengal adjacent to the Bangladesh coast have shown strong warming trends of the annual temperature with maximum at Dhaka (0.037 °C/year). The near equatorial zone, i.e., southern India, Sri Lanka and part of Thailand and Malaysia (Kuala Lumpur) shows warming trends in the annual mean temperature with strong warming at Pamban and Anuradhapura (around 0.04 °C/year). The cooling trends have been observed at a few stations including Port Blair, Yangoon and Cuttack. Further analysis shows the presence of prominent ENSO scale of variations with time period 4–7 years and 2–3 years for almost all the stations. The decadal mode with T >7 years is present in some data series. The results of the variations of temperature with respect to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) show that SOI has some negative correlation with temperature for most of the stations except those in the extreme northeast. It has been found that positive anomaly of temperature has been observed for El Niño events and negative anomaly for the La Nina events.  相似文献   

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