基于混沌时间序列的Volterra自适应滤波极移预报方法

针对极移复杂的时变特性, 根据混沌相空间坐标延迟重构理论, 提出一种基于Volterra自适应滤波的极移预报方法. 首先, 利用最小二乘拟合算法分离极移序列中的线性趋势项、钱德勒项和周年项, 获得线性极移、钱德勒极移和周年极移的外推值; 其次, 通过C-C关联积分法对最小二乘拟合残差序列进行相空间重构, 并利用小数据量法计算残差序列的最大Lyapunov指数验证其混沌特性, 在此基础上, 构建Volterra自适应滤波器对残差序列进行预测; 最后, 将线性极移、钱德勒极移和周年极移的外推值以及最小二乘拟合残差的预测值相加获得极移最终预报值. 利用国际地球自转服务局(International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, IERS)提供的极移数据进行1--60d跨度预报, 并将预报结果分别与国际地球定向参数预报比较竞赛(Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign, EOP PCC)结果和IERS A公报发布的极移预报产品进行对比, 结果表明: 对于1--30d的短期预报, 该方法的预报精度与EOP PCC最优预报方法相当, 当预报跨度超过30d时, 该方法的预报精度低于EOP PCC最优预报方法, 优于参与EOP PCC的其他方法; 与IERS A公报相比, 该方法的短期预报效果较好, 当预报跨度增加时预报精度低于IERS A公报. 预报结果表明该方法更适合于极移短期预报.     

考虑LS+AR模型基础数据量的极移预报研究

针对目前极移最小二乘(Least Square, LS)+自回归(AutoRegressive, AR)预报模型的单一数据选取方案, 提出分别考虑LS模型数据量和AR残差数据量的组合数据模式, 并对极移预报时单一数据和组合数据预报结果精度进行分析, 探讨模型输入数据量对极移预报精度的影响. 结果表明, 模型输入数据量的变化对极移预报结果影响较大. 采用组合数据预报的方式相比较于单一数据量预报方式精度更高, 特别是针对30--360 d跨度内的中长期预报, 组合数据量的极移预报精度可比单一数据量预报精度有较大改善. 结论证明组合数据在极移预报时具有一定的优势, 可为以后极移预报数据量选取提供一定的借鉴参考意义.     

基于极限学习机的极移中长期预报

传统的极移预报多是基于最小二乘外推和自回归等线性模型,但极移包含了复杂的非线性成分,线性模型的预报效果往往不甚理想。将一种新型神经网络极限学习机(Extreme Learning Machine, ELM)用于极移中长期预报。首先利用最小二乘外推模型对极移序列进行拟合,获得趋势项外推值,然后采用极限学习机对最小二乘拟合残差进行预报,最终的极移预报值为趋势项外推值与残差预报值之和。将极限学习机的预报结果同反向传播(Back Propagation, BP)神经网络与地球定向参数预报比较活动(Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign, EOP PCC)的预报结果进行对比,结果表明,极限学习机用于极移中长期预报是高效可行的。     

利用经验模态分解提高极移预报精度（英文）

经验模态分解(Empirical Mode Decomposition,EMD)是一种数据驱动的自适应非线性、非平稳信号分解方法。为提高极移预报精度,将经验模态分解应用于极移预报中。首先利用经验模态分解方法对极移序列进行分解,获得极移的高频分量和低频分量;然后采用最小二乘(Least Squares,LS)外推模型对极移低频分量进行拟合,获得最小二乘拟合残差;其次采用自回归(Autoregressive,AR)模型对极移高频分量和最小二乘拟合残差之和进行建模预报;最后将最小二乘模型和自回归模型外推值相加获得极移预报值。将经验模态分解和LS+AR组合模型预报结果与LS+AR模型预报以及地球定向参数预报比较竞赛(Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign,EOP PCC)的预报结果进行比较,结果表明,将经验模态分解应用于极移预报中,可以明显改善极移预报精度。     

利用奇异谱分析提高极移中长期预报精度

由于空间大地观测数据传输耗时及处理过程复杂, 导致极移测量值的获取存在时延, 无法满足对高精度的极移预报值有重大需求的应用领域. 针对极移复杂的时变特性, 提出一种基于奇异谱分析(singular spectrum analysis, SSA)的预报方法. 首先用SSA分离提取极移时序中的高频组分与低频组分; 其次建立最小二乘(least square, LS)外推与自回归(AutoreGressive, AR)模型对极移高频和低频组分进行组合预报. 结果表明, SSA方法能够准确地分离和提取极移低频和高频组分, 对低频和高频组分组合预报可以显著改善极移的中长期(30--365d)预报精度, 与国际地球自转和参考系服务局(International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, IERS)提供的A公报中的极移预报值相比, SSA方法对极移PMX分量(本初子午线方向)和PMY分量(西90$^\circ$子午线方向)的中长期预报精度改进最高分别可达45.97%和62.44%. 研究结果验证了SSA方法对极移中长期预报改进的有效性.     

极移和激发的研究

极称可分为长期极移，钱德勒摆动（CW），周年极移（AN），不规则极移和短周期极移，由于极移运动对不同频率的激发响应是不同的，采用反卷积方法将极移序列进行了分析，对各类极移运动与激发的关系作了对比研究，认为周年极移与激发是逐年不同的，若能将它们逐年进行比较，将会对气象模型提供更好的约束条件，不规则极移可能反映了地球上较大规模的异常气象现象。     

周日、半日地球自转变化研究进展

主要介绍了周日、半日地球自转变化研究进展。首先介绍了周日、半日地球自转变化的研究发展历程以及主要激发因素,近几十年来,由于GPS、VLBI、SLR等观测技术和分析精度的提高,已能用几小时甚至1～2 h的观测数据求解地球自转参数(极移和自转速率变化),并从中检测到明显的周日、半日自转变化。与海潮模型所预测的结果进行比较,在主要的周日、半日潮波频率上,两者的振幅和相位符合得较好,特别是对UT1,符合度为90%左右,极移为60%左右。目前,仍有30%的极移周日、半日激发因素没有确定。然后对20世纪80年代以来关于极移和UT 1的周日、半日变化研究应用,以及不同的全球海潮改正模型作了较为全面的综述,现有的海潮改正模型存在10%～20%的误差,需要进一步的精化。最后对周日、半日地球自转变化的未来研究工作作了简单的展望。     

经验模式分解在极移超短期预报中的应用

经验模式分解(Empirical Mode Decomposition,简称EMD)是一种数据驱动的自适应非线性时变信号分解方法,可以把数据分解成具有物理意义的模式函数分量.采用EMD对极移序列进行分解,去除序列中的高频信号,然后基于最小二乘外推(Least Squares Extrapolation,简称LSE)和广义回归神经网络(General Regression Neural Network,简称GRNN)的组合模型对去除高频信号的极移序列进行1～10d的超短期预报.实验结果表明:将该模型应用到极移超短期预报具有可行性,预报精度有明显改善.     

一种改正LS+AR模型提高短期极移预报精度的方法

最小二乘(Least Squares,LS)与自回归(Auto Regressive,AR)联合(LS+AR)模型在极移预报(polar motion,PM)中存在以下问题:最小二乘拟合的内部残差值较好而LS外推的残差值较大;LS拟合残差序列是非线性的,故根据预报历元前的残差序列建立的AR模型可能并不适用于待预报的残差序列,存在不匹配预报的情况.针对这两个问题,通过以下方法进行解决:首先对LS拟合数据两端点附加约束条件使其固定到LS拟合曲线上,因此在两端点附近的拟合值与观测值十分接近;然后选取与LS外推残差序列变化趋势接近的内推残差序列作为AR模型的建模对象,进行残差预报.通过实例表明该方法能够有效地提高LS+AR模型在短期极移预报的精度.此外,通过与RLS(Robustified Least Squares)+AR、RLS+ARIMA(Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average)和LS+ANN(Artificial Neural Network)模型的预报结果对比,证明了该方法在极移预报中的可行性.实例证明了所提出的方法在短期预报中可以取得良好的预报结果,尤其在1–10d超短期的极移预报上可以获得与国际最好预报精度相当的预报结果.     

卫星定位中的一种分步加权解算方法

卫星定位中,当可视卫星数目多于4颗时常采用加权最小二乘(Web Login Server,WLS)算法,对各卫星解算权重进行重新评估而获得最优解。然而由于受到多重因素的影响,权矩阵W的构造与确定一直是各类加权算法中的重点和难点。从线性测量方程组出发,通过研究迭代解算过程中用户等效伪距测量误差对坐标位置误差的传递与放大规律,提出了一种新的加权最小二乘解算方法,及其权矩阵的具体构造与实现方法,从而对各未知数进行分步加权与分离解算。通过全球定位系统(Global Positioning System,GPS)实测实验,对方法的可行性和精度水平进行了分析与验证。结果表明,使用该分步加权方法进行定位,解算结果准确度更高、稳定性更好。     

地球动力学扁率及其与岁差章动的关系

由岁差常数求得的日月岁差是天文学的重要参数之一,它和地球动力学扁率相联系。地球动力学扁率在章动理论的计算中也是一个重要的物理量。介绍了由不同的观测方法和模型给出的地球动力扁率值,并讨论了它也岁差的关系和对章动计算的影响。在刚体地球章动振幅的计算中,地球动力学扁率值起着尺度因子的作用,要改善刚体地球章动振幅的计算,需要修改目前的黄经总岁差值。非刚体地球章动的转换函数中所采用的简正模和常数都直接或间接地依赖地球动力学扁率值。在IAU1980章动理论中,计算刚体地球章动振幅所使用的地球动力学扁率值计算转换函数中简正模频率和常数所使用的地球动力学扁率值并不一致。随着观测和计算精度的提高,地球动力学扁率值的不一致将影响章动振幅的计算。在建立刚体地球章地动理论中,如何解释地球动力学扁率值的差异,如何选取地球动力学扁率值,还有待进一步的研究。     

关于章动序列计算中的地球动力学扁率的取值

刚体地球章动序列和非刚体地球章动的转换函数都和地球动力学扁率有关。ＩＡＵ１９８０章动理论中采用了一个不一致的地球动力学扁率值,从而影响了章动振幅的计算。本文介绍了章动序列计算中地球动力学扁率的取值。由地球模型１０６６Ａ或ＰＲＥＭ得到的地球动力学扁率值比由岁差观测得到的约小１％,并且不可靠。当考虑体静力学平衡被破坏时新的地球物理模型,可得到与岁差常数相一致的地球动力学扁率值。地球动力学扁率值Ｈ＝０．     

The Responses of the Deformable Earth to Different Driving Forces

The spatial and temporal variations of the Earth deformation and the gravitational field are important both in the theoretical research and in the construction of geospatial database. The Earth deforms due to various mechanisms and the deformation further induces changes in the gravitational potential of the Earth, i.e. the deformation-induced additional potential or the Euler gravitational increment. Based on the theory of vector spherical harmonics, we discuss in this paper the Earth deformation and gravitational increment resulting from the tidal force, loading force and the stress of the Earth's surface. We write out the expression for the Euler gravitational potential increment and the relations between different Love numbers. These are all important points in the research on Earth deformation.     

Researches in China on the Effects of Tides on the Earth Rotation

In this paper the tidal phenomena on the Earth are concisely specified, including solid tides, ocean tides and atmospheric tides due to the luni-solar tide-generating force, and the Earth pole tide due to the motion of the Earth's rotation axis (polar motion); as well as their effects on the Earth rotation. The outcomes of scientific researches of Chinese astronomers on these topics are described in some detail. These researches deal with the mechanisms responsible for tidal effects on the earth rotation, and on the measurements of the Earth rotation parameters. Finally, the effects discovered by Chinese researchers on the measurements of the period and change in period of pulsars are discussed. These effects are very small in magnitude but not negligible.     

国内天文地球动力学中的潮汐研究

简要说明了天文地球动力学范畴内所研究的潮汐现象，包括由日月引潮力引起的固体潮、海洋潮、大气潮和由于地球自转轴的极移引起的极潮，以及这些潮汐对地球自转和地球自转的测量产生的效应。重点阐述中国天文学界在这一领域里的研究成果。这些研究涉及潮汐影响地球自转的机制，也就是各种潮汐效应与极移、自转速率变化和章动的关系，包括构建这类关系的理论模型，分析潮汐对它们的影响，利用中国古代丰富的天象记录计算地球自转的长期减慢，计算弹性或滞弹地球的洛夫数，依据某一地球模型计算潮汐效应或章动序列等等。研究也涉及在测量地球自转参数的不同技术中各种潮汐效应对测量结果产生的影响及其改正，并涉及与潮汐有关的观测方法的优化和数据处理过程的改进。最后介绍了中国学者所发现的脉冲星的周期和周期变率测量中的潮汐效应，尽管它们的量级甚微，但不容忽视。     

Determining the possible building blocks of the Earth and Mars

Abstract— To determine the possible building blocks of the Earth and Mars, 225,792,840 possible combinations of the bulk oxygen isotopic and chemical compositions of 13 chondritic groups at 5% mass increments were examined. Only a very small percentage of the combinations match the oxygen isotopic composition, the assumed bulk FeO concentration, and the assumed Fe/Al weight ratio for the Earth. Since chondrites are enriched in silicon relative to estimates of the bulk Earth, none of the combinations fall near the terrestrial magmatic fractionation trend line in Mg/Si‐Al/Si space. More combinations match the oxygen isotopic composition and the assumed bulk FeO concentration for Mars. These combinations fall near the trend for shergottite meteorites in Mg/Si‐Al/Si space. One explanation for the difficulty in forming Earth out of known chondrites is that the Earth may be composed predominately of material that did not survive to the present day as meteorites. Another explanation could be that significant amounts of silicon are sequestered in the core and/or lower mantle of the Earth.     

InSAR技术现状与应用

合成孔径雷达干涉测量(InSAR)是近期发展起来的一种新型空间对地观测技术。经相干处理，它把合成孔径雷达(SAR)产生的单视复数图像中的相位信息提取出来，给出目标点的三维信息。由于SAR具有全天候、全天时和对某些地物有一定穿透性等特点，使InSAR技术的潜在应用领域相当广泛，目前已经成为地学界相关研究的热点之一。介绍了SAR和InSAR的基本原理与发展概况，分析了InSAR测量模式的测高精度，着重讨论了InSAR技术的应用及其与天文地球动力学研究的相互促进关系。     

Properties of collision trajectories of asteroids with the earth

Close encounters of asteroids with the Earth can lead to a transition to resonant orbits, close encounters, and collisions in the future. The structure of the sets of possible collisions of asteroids with the Earth is similar to a fractal structure thanks to resonant returns of asteroids. Areas of semi-major axes and positions and sizes of gaps leading to collisions with the Earth for Apophis asteroids 2007 VK184 and 2011 AG5 are given.     

Zonal harmonics of azimuthally averaged potential of rotating inhomogeneous ellipsoids

The distant retrograde orbits (DROs) can serve as the parking orbits for a long-term cis-lunar space station. This paper gives a comprehensive study on the transfer problem from DROs to Earth orbits, including low Earth orbits (LEOs), medium Earth orbits (MEOs), and geosynchronous orbits (GSOs), in the bicircular restricted four-body problem (BR4BP) via optimizations within a large solution space. The planar transfer problem is firstly solved by grid search and optimization techniques, and two types of transfer orbits, direct ones and low-energy ones, are both constructed. Then, the nonplanar transfer problem to Earth orbits with inclinations between 0 and 90 degrees are solved via sequential optimizations based on the planar transfers. The transfer characteristics in the cases of different destination orbit inclinations are discussed for both the direct and the low-energy transfer orbits. The important role of the lunar gravity in the low-energy transfers is also discussed, which can overcome the increase of transfer cost caused by the high inclination of Earth orbits. The distinct features of different transfer scenarios, including multiple revolutions around the Earth and Moon, the exterior phase, and the lunar flyby, are discovered. The energy of transfer orbits is exploited to discuss the effects of close lunar flybys. The results will be helpful for the transfer design in future manned or unmanned return missions, and can also provide valuable information for selecting proper parking DROs for cis-lunar space stations.

     

Strategy for Applying Neutrino Geophysics to the Earth Sciences Including Planetary Habitability

Antineutrino data constrain the concentrations of the heat producing elements U and Th as well as potentially the concentration of K. Interpretation is similar to but not homologous with gravity. Current geoneutrino physics efficiently asks simple questions taking advantage of what is already known about the Earth. A few measurements with some sites in the ocean basins will constrain the concentration of U and Th in the crust and mantle and whether the mantle is laterally heterogeneous. These results will allow Earth science arguments about the formation, chemistry, and dynamics of the Earth to be turned around and appraised. In particular, they will tell whether the Earth accreted its expected share of these elements from the solar nebula and how long radioactive heat will sustain active geological processes on the Earth. Both aspects are essential to evaluating the Earth as a common or rare habitable planet.