海陆气候事件关联规则挖掘方法

近年来,异常气候事件的频发对人类的生活环境和经济发展带来严重负影响。气象学家研究表明：海洋气候异常对陆地气候异常事件的发生具有重要的诱发作用,因此,对海陆气候间的内在关联机制进行深入挖掘具有重要研究价值。本文提出了一种关联规则挖掘方法,以探索单一海洋气候指数与陆地异常气候事件间存在的关联。首先,针对陆地气候要素,采用顾及空间邻近关系的层次聚类方法进行有效气候分区,通过对各层分区结果进行相关统计分析得到有效的各区域气候序列;然后,进行顾及多重约束进行时序关联规则挖掘,以探索海陆气候要素间的关联机制;最后,通过实际算例分析得到的各气候指数与我国陆地区域异常降水事件间的关联机制结果,与实际情况高度吻合。     

卫星气候数据集的应用研究与发展分析

卫星气候数据集是卫星气候研究的基础。在规范卫星气候数据集基本概念的基础上,针对现有基本气候数据集（FCDR）和专题气候数据集（TCDR）的分类方式,无法反映卫星气候数据特点的问题,认为应将专题气候数据集进一步划分为单一遥感仪器专题气候数据集、多种遥感仪器融合专题气候数据集及卫星与多源资料融合专题气候数据集等几类。这种分类方法便于用户更好地了解和使用卫星气候数据。然后,重点围绕基本气候变量和基本卫星气候变量含义、卫星气候数据集生产规范、国内外主要卫星气候数据生产计划等方面,综述了卫星气候数据集建设及规范化生产已取得的最新研究进展。在此基础上,分析了卫星气候数据集建设和应用中存在的主要问题,展望了卫星气候数据集发展,同时对我国卫星气候数据集建设提出具体建议。     

基于Web地理可视化分析系统的研究与设计

气候研究涉及海量时空数据集,其产生和存储在分布式计算资源中。科学家们需要一个直观且方便地工具去研究分布式时空数据。地理可视化分析工具可直观且方便地访问气候资料、探索各种气候参数之间的关系及交流研究成果。本文对基于Web的地理可视化分析系统的研究与设计做一些探讨,阐述该系统具有以下功能:1互联网上海量数据集管理;2时空数据的2D/3D可视化;3气候研究中各种时空统计分析;4交互式数据分析和知识发现。此外,本文也为管理、分发、分析大数据提供参考。     

近年中国气候研究的一些进展

本文概要叙述了‘九五’期间中国正在实施的一些气候研究计划以及取得的一部分研究结果。     

甘肃通渭县黄土堆积区全新世环境变迁

通过对甘肃通渭县四家庙全新世黄土剖面的粒度和磁化率分析。并依据前人研究成果对年均气温和年均降水量的相应恢复，揭示了该区全新世期间气候演化的特点和规律。分析认为，研究区全新世以来的环境变化是不稳定的，无论古土壤发育期还是黄土堆积期，气候都具有频繁的次级波动。尤其在全新世中期。两层古土壤间的黄土夹层，反映该区在全新世大暖期经历过一次历时千年之久的气候显著恶化事件。     

渐近极值理论在气候极值降水预测中的应用

采用渐近极值理论中的Ｇｕｍｂｌｅ第１和第３种类型的渐近分布，对成都地区日最大降水量的气候极值问题进行了研究，同时对不同的多种计算方法进行了比较，都取得了较满意的结果。     

热带次表层海温对中国东部夏季气候的影响

热带海洋热状况是影响中国气候变化的主要因子之一,为了研究热带次表层海温如何影响中国气候,通过相关计算和合成分析等方法讨论了热带太平洋至印度洋次表层海温异常对中国东部夏季降水和温度的影响。结果表明:当冬季赤道东印度洋至西太平洋次表层海温偏暖(偏冷),中印度洋和东太平洋次表层海温偏冷(偏暖),夏季,长江中下游地区降水偏少(偏多),华南、华北和东北大部地区降水偏多(偏少);中国东部大范围高温(低温)。其可能的影响途径为,东亚夏季风环流对热带次表层海温异常的响应导致了其年际变化,进而引起中国东部夏季气候的异常分布。     

胜利油区第三纪气候

胜利油区第三纪气候温暖 ,属亚热带型。早第三纪气候暖热 ,一般属中亚热带型。沙河街组沉积时期为增温期 ,气候属南亚热带型 ;孔二段及东一段沉积时期为降温期 ,气候属北亚热带型。晚第三纪气温下降 ,但仍较温暖 ,馆下段沉积时期气候属北亚热带型、馆上段沉积时期气温上升 ,为中亚热带型 ;明化镇组沉积时期气温再度下降。研究区第三纪有一个潮湿期即孔二段沉积时期 ,两个湿润期即沙三段、沙一段中部至馆陶组沉积时期 ;三个干旱期即孔一段至沙四段、沙二段上部至沙一段下部、明化镇组沉积时期。     

气候-海面变化数据检索系统的实现与应用

对地学数据进行GIS统一管理与检索分析,实现数据的空间化显示和数据挖掘,是数据共享网建设的重要发展方向.本文以地球系统科学数据共享网中的气候-海面变化数据集为例,在气候-海面变化数据模型研究基础上,进行了相关数据库的统一规划、设计与管理;同时基于.NET,ArcIMS开发平台,利用ASP.NET、ADO.NET等工具开...     

广东阳江夏季降水的气候特征分析

为解阳江夏季降水的气候特征,进一步做好阳江气候降水预测,利用Motlet小波分析理论、Mann-Kendal检验和滑动t检验等方法对阳江单站57年(1953-2009年)6月到8月逐日降水资料进行分析,结果表明:阳江夏季降水经历了3个阶段,由降水逐渐增加时期变化到相对干旱时期,再到现阶段降水年际变化大;主要的降水周期为7-8年,1963年是降水的突变点;小雨量级降水为主要降水类型,在1980年以来阳江夏季大雨和暴雨降水日数逐渐增多,而大雨和暴雨量级降水是降水量的主要构成。     

气、水、岩、生、人相互作用及其环境效应

这里所指示的大气圈、水圈、岩石圈、生物圈以及人类的作用千变万化,从而对人类的生存造成巨大影响,构成了一个复杂的生态环境,讨论这些问题,对人类生存至关重要。     

平流层臭氧的温室效应及其气候影响

本文阐述大气中重要的“痕量气体”之一——臭氧(平流层臭氧)对地球表面和低层大气的温室效应及其全球气候的反馈影响;指出了云的辐射力的概念及其重要性,并讨论了“南极臭氧洞”现象。     

近代四川气候特征初步分析及展望

本文分析了近代四川气温、旱涝变化的基本特征,并对未来变化趋势进行展望。     

Paleoclimate study of mountain ecosystems by multiple group biological analysis

Methodological problems of climatic reconstruction for different periods of Holocene are discussed on the basis of a multiple group biological analysis on peat-sapropel sediments.The possibility of biological analysis is exemplified by the paleoclimatic reconstruction for Carpathian and Altai Mountain ranges.For the "Skolevsky Beskidy" national park of Carpaty the paleoclimatic scenarios have been drown up aiming at the more precise definition of climatic conditions for the period of mass mountain slope terracing.The stability of terrace systems of various designs in the current climatic conditions has been assessed.It is shown that during periods of humid climate the terraces,whose designs have been focused on drainage,were built.In periods of dry and warm climate the terrace systems capable of accumulating water were built.Both these types of terrace systems are destroyed in nowadays.Only those terrace systems are stable which were adjusted by their builders to contrast variations of precipitation.For Western Altais the paleoclimatic scenario has been done to forecast the safety of the Bronze Age kurgans(burial earth mounds) with permafrost inside the construction.In the Altay region during the Holocene it has revealed two periods of sharp cooling,the peaks of which occurred in the intervals 4500-4300 and 2500-2300 years ago,and two periods of pronounced climatic drying 4900-4700 and 130-70 years ago.Depletion of the algae composition in the layer corresponding to the last period of drying climate indicates a very sharp change in the parameters of moisture and turning the lake into a dry swamp.Periods of cold weather may have contributed to the formation of special ritual traditions of the Sakan tribes that require the frozen ground to bury the dead.The later climate fluctuations identified have not affected the safety of permafrost in burial mounds constructed in the V-III cc BC.     

Retrieving multi-scale climatic variations from high dimensional time-series MODIS green vegetation cover in a tropical/subtropical mountainous island

【Title】
There are knowledge gaps in our understanding of vegetation responses to multi-scale climate-related variables in tropical/subtropical mountainous islands in the Asia-Pacific region. Therefore, this study investigated inter-annual vegetation dynamics and regular/irregular climate patterns in Taiwan. We applied principal component analysis （PCA） on 11 years （2001~2011） of high-dimensional monthly photosynthetically active vegetation cover （PV） derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer （MODIS） and investigated the relationships between spatiotemporal patterns of the eigenvectors and loadings of each component through time and multi-scale climate-related variations. Results showed that the first five components contributed to 96.4% of the total variance. The first component （PC1, explaining 94.5% of variance） loadings, as expected, were significantly correlated with the temporal dynamics of the PV （r = 0.94）, which was mainly governed by regional climate. The temporal loadings of PC2 and PC3 （0.8% and 0.6% of variance, respectively） were significantly correlated with the temporal dynamics of the PV of forests （r = 0.72） and the farmlands （r = 0.80）, respectively. The low-order components （PC4 and PC5, 0.3% and 0.2% of variance, respectively） were closely related to the occurrence of drought （r = 0.49） and to irregular ENSO associated climate anomalies （r = -0.54）, respectively. Pronounced correlations were also observed between PC5 and the Southern Oscillation Index （SOI） with one to three months of time lags （r = -0.35 ~ -0.43, respectively）, revealing biophysical memory effects on the time-series pattern of the vegetation through ENSO-related rainfall patterns. Our findings reveal that the sensitivity of the ecosystems in this tropical/subtropical mountainous island may not only be regulated by regional climate and human activities but also be susceptible to large-scale climate anomalies which are crucial and comparable to previous large scale analyses. This study demonstrates that PCA can be an effective tool for analyzing seasonal and inter-annual variability of vegetation dynamics across this tropical/subtropical mountainous islandin the Pacific Ocean, which provides an opportunity to forecast the responses and feedbacks of terrestrial environments to future climate scenarios.     

Identification and categorization of climate change risks

The scientific evidence that climate is changing due to greenhouse gas emission is now incontestable, which may put many social, biological, and geophysical systems in the world at risk. In this paper, we first identified main risks induced from or aggravated by climate change. Then we categorized them applying a new risk categorization system brought forward by Renn in a framework of International Risk Governance Council. We proposed that ＂uncertainty＂ could be treated as the classification criteria. Based on this, we established a quantitative method with fuzzy set theory, in which ＂confidence＂ and ＂likelihood＂, the main quantitative terms for expressing uncertainties in IPCC, were used as the feature parameters to construct the fuzzy membership functions of four risk types. According to the maximum principle, most climate change risks identified were classified into the appropriate risk types. In the mean time, given that not all the quantitative terms are available, a qualitative approach was also adopted as a complementary classification method. Finally, we get the preliminary results of climate change risk categorization, which might iay the foundation for the future integrated risk management of climate change.     

简单随机模式进一步分析(Ⅰ)——非线性外通函数项处理

本文利用等效线性化法和Fokker-planck方程,对一个简单的非线性随机模式非线性项在不同气候时期的参数化进行了讨论,得到了冰期、间冰期和现代气候的概率分布密度及输出响应特征。     

Influence of dimethylsulfide produced by marine algae on the global climate

DMS (dimethylsulfide), a breakdown product of cellular solutes of many species of macroalgae andphytoplankton plays an important role in regulating global climate and counteracting partly the "greenhouse" effect.In this paper, the advance and prospects of DMS study are reviewed and discussed with respectto DMS sample storage, measurement and importance in regulating global climate and the acidity ofrain and aerosol.     

成都城市发展对热岛强度影响的主成份回归分析

本文对成都市总人口、建成区面积等11个因子、作了主成份回归L-S估计和M-估计,讨论了成都城市发展对“热岛”强度的主要影响因子。结果表明,城区房屋建筑面积及总人口数是影响城市气候(气温)的主要因子,其次为城市人口总户数、建成面积等。 文中,对回归方程进行了拟合计算,回归效果比较满意(尤其是稳健回归)。     

Influence of climate on soil organic carbon in Chinese paddy soils

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is a major component of the global carbon cycle and has a potentially large impact on the greenhouse effect. Paddy soils are important agricultural soils worldwide, especially in Asia. Thus, a better understanding of the relationship between SOC of paddy soils and climate variables is crucial to a robust understanding of the potential effect of climate change on the global carbon cycle. A soil profile data set (n = 1490) from the Second National Soil Survey of China conducted from 1979 to 1994 was used to explore the relationships of SOC density with mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP) in six soil regions and eight paddy soil subgroups. Results showed that SOC density of paddy soils was negatively correlated with MAT and positively correlated with MAP (P < 0.01). The relationships of SOC density with MAT and MAP were weak and varied among the six soil regions and eight paddy soil subgroups. A preliminary assessment of the response of SOC in Chinese paddy soils to climate indicated that climate could lead to a 13% SOC loss from paddy soils. Compared to other soil regions, paddy soils in Northern China will potentially more sensitive to climate change over the next several decades. Paddy soils in Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin could be a potential carbon sink. Reducing the climate impact on paddy soil SOC will mitigate the positive feedback loop between SOC release and global climate change.