中国大陆及周缘地震目录完整性统计分析

地震目录资料是进行地震预测、地震危险性分析、地震活动性研究等地震学研究的基础资料.对地震目录资料的完整性可靠性分析是地震学研究的基础工作之一.近几十年来我国积累的大量的仪器地震记录,历史地震也在不断更新,为地震活动性研究提供了更为丰富的样本,因此有必要对新的地震目录进行完整性分析.本文采用了新的统计方法对我国仪器记录地震目录和历史破坏性地震目录进行了完整性分析.结果表明,对于仪器记录地震目录（M≥3.0）我国东部地区1975年后基本完整,西部地区1980年后基本完整.对于历史地震目录（M≥5.0）,东部地区1500年后基本完整,西部地区1950年后基本完整.考虑到华北地震区历史破坏性地震（M≥4³/₄）活动的时间非平稳性,我们采用突变点分析法研究了华北地震区历史破坏性地震目录的时间特征,得到了华北地震区地震活动周期性变化的突变点位置,并揭示了华北地震区历史破坏性地震目录完整起始时间约为公元1500年前后.     

Changes in earthquake energy class as a factor affecting the parameters of the recurrence relation: The Baikal region

The numerical modeling of actually observed events contained in the Baikal earthquake catalog allowed the production of synthetic catalogs. These catalogs reflect real situations that can give rise to heterogeneities in earthquake catalogs acquired by seismological monitoring. For each of the resulting 65 catalogs we calculated the slope γ and seismic activity (so-called in Russian; it is the seismicity rate or the constant term in the frequency-size relation) A ₁₀ in the recurrence relation. We also investigated the effects of changes in estimates of earthquake energy class on the parameters of the recurrence relation. It was shown that the slope γ is not very sensitive, but that the seismic activity A ₁₀ is sensitive, to changes in earthquake energy class and can be used to test an earthquake catalog for heterogeneity. Formulas were derived to relate the parameters of recurrence relations and the scaling factors of two energy scales, which can yield recurrence parameters for one of the scales, provided we know the ratio of the respective scaling factors and the recurrence parameters based on the other scale.     

联合概率法在合并相邻台网地震目录中的应用:以2014年鲁甸序列为例

中国目前实行的区域地震台网独立运行机制,使得在相邻不同台网的交界地区可能存在多个版本的地震目录和震相观测报告,影响了地震活动性分析与研究.为此,本文提出了一种基于联合概率的方法,可标明两个或多个相邻台网目录中相同的事件,合并它们的震相数据开展重新定位,并重构不同台网交界地区的统一地震目录.该方法的思路与分析步骤是：首先,计算获得不同台网之间具有最小发震时刻差异的两两地震的时空强差异分布,查找并剔除独立地震,计算事件合并的联合概率;其次,基于联合概率分析合并不同台网的地震目录和震相观测报告,对合并事件进行重新定位和定位误差分析,并基于G-R关系检验重构目录的完整性.本文以2014年鲁甸地震序列为例的初步应用结果显示,震相合并之后的地震定位精度相比之前单个台网的结果,特别是相比四川台网的目录,定位精度提高非常显著,合并后的目录与之前相对完整的云南目录接近,但相比由两个台网目录简单拼凑而成的目录更加准确.此外,研究还发现在目录合并过程中,对于4级以上的中强震,应选择M_S而不是以M_L震级标度;震相合并后被复用台站记录的到时信息可用于检测不同台网间的震相拾取是否存在系统偏差.本文提出的方法使得在相邻不同台网的过渡区形成一个统一且尽可能准确可靠的地震目录成为可能.     

UNIFIED EARTHQUAKE CATALOG FOR CHINA’S SEAS AND ADJACENT REGIONS AND ITS COMPLETENESS ANALYSIS

China’s seas and adjacent regions are affected by interactions among the Eurasian plate, the western Pacific plate, and the Philippine Sea plate. Both intraplate and plate-edge earthquakes have occurred in these regions and the seismic activities are frequent. The coastal areas of China are economically developed and densely populated. With the development and utilization of marine energy and resources along with the development of national economy, the types and quantity of construction projects in the marine and coastal areas have increased, once an earthquake happens, it will cause huge damage and loss to these areas, therefore, the earthquake-related research for these sea areas cannot be ignored and the need for study on these areas is increasingly urgent. One type of essential basic data for marine seismic research is a complete, unified earthquake catalog, which is an important database for seismotectonics, seismic zoning, earthquake prediction, earthquake prevention, and disaster reduction. Completeness and reliability analysis of an earthquake catalog is one of the fundamental research topics in seismology.
At present, four editions of earthquake catalogs have been officially published in China, as well as the earthquake catalogue compiled in the national fifth-generation earthquake parameter zoning map, these catalogs are based on historical data, seismic survey investigations, and various instrumental observations. However, these catalogs have earlier data deadlines and contain the earthquake records for only the offshore regions of China, which are extensions of coastal land. Distant sea regions, subduction zones, and adjacent sea regions have not been included in these catalogs. Secondly, there were no cross-border areas involved in the compilation of earthquake catalogs in the past. It was not required to use magnitudes measured by other countries’ seismic networks and observation agencies to develop an earthquake catalog with a uniform magnitude scale, moreover, there was no formula suitable for the conversion of magnitude scale in China’s seas areas and adjacent regions. Little research has been conducted to compile and analyze the completeness of a unified earthquake catalog for China’s seas and adjacent regions. Therefore, in this study, we compiled earthquake data from the seismic networks of China and other countries for China’s seas and adjacent regions. The earthquake-monitoring capabilities of different sea areas at different time periods were evaluated, and the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of epicentral location accuracy for China’s seas and adjacent regions were analyzed. We used the orthogonal regression method to obtain conversion relationships between the surface wave magnitude, body wave magnitude, and moment magnitude for China’s seas and adjacent regions, and established magnitude conversion formulae between the China Seismic Network and the M_L magnitude of the Taiwan Seismic Network and the M_S magnitude of the Philippine Seismic Network. Finally, we developed an earthquake catalog with uniform magnitude scales for China’s seas and adjacent regions.
On the basis of the frequency-magnitude distribution obtained from the magnitude-cumulative frequency relationship (N-T) and the Gutenberg-Richter(GR)law, we conducted a completeness analysis of the unified earthquake catalog for China’s seas and adjacent regions, Then, we identified the beginning years of each magnitude interval at different focal depth ranges and different seismic zones in the earthquake catalog.
This study marks the first time that a unified earthquake catalog has been compiled for China’s seas and adjacent regions, based on the characteristics of seismicity in the surrounding sea regions, which fills the gap in the compilation of the earthquake catalogue of China’s seas and adjacent areas. The resulting earthquake catalog provides a basis for seismotectonics, seismicity study, and seismic hazard analysis for China’s seas and adjacent regions. The catalog also provides technical support for the preparation of seismic zoning maps as well as for earthquake prevention and disaster reduction in project planning and engineering construction in the sea regions. In addition, by evaluating the earthquake-monitoring capability of the seismic networks in China’s seas and adjacent regions and analyzing the completeness of the compiled unified earthquake catalog, this study provides a scientific reference to improve the earthquake-monitoring capability and optimizing the distribution of the seismic networks in these regions.     

基于蒙特卡洛方法的地震目录模拟及相符性检验——以汾渭地震带为例

人工地震目录模拟是改进现有地震目录不完备性、弥补大地震记录稀缺,以及完善地震学相关研究的有效途径之一。本文基于地震活动的泊松分布模型、古登堡-里克特震级-频度关系,利用能较逼真描述具有随机性质事物特点及物理实验过程的蒙特卡洛方法,模拟汾渭地震带未来30、50、100年等不同时长的地震目录,并对其进行统计检验。分析表明,模拟地震目录符合设定的地震活动性参数和泊松分布假设特征。依据模拟地震目录,对未来该区域地震趋势进行了分析,以期为地震危险性分析提供参考。     

Preliminary analysis of earthquake probability based on the synthetic seismic catalog

The analysis of seismic hazards relies on the statistical analysis of historical seismic data and the instrumental seismic catalog to obtain the regional earthquake recurrence interval and earthquake probability. The accuracy of analysis thus depends strongly on the completeness of the seismic data used. However, available seismic catalogs are too short or incomplete for the reliable analysis of the statistical characteristics of earthquakes. If a long-term synthetic seismic catalog can be generated using a physics-based numerical simulation, and the simulation results match the crustal deformation, seismicity, and other observations,then such a synthetic catalog helps us to further understand the characteristics of seismic activity and analyze the regional seismic hazard. In this paper, taking the northeastern Tibetan Plateau as a case study, we establish a three-dimensional visco-elastoplastic finite-element model to simulate earthquake cycles and the spatiotemporal evolution of earthquakes on the model fault system and obtain a seismic catalog on a time scale of tens of thousands of years. On the basis that the model satisfies the regional geodynamics of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, we analyze seismicity on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau using the simulated synthetic earthquake catalog. The characteristics of earthquake recurrence at different locations and different magnitudes, and the long-term average probability of earthquake occurrence within the fault system on the northeastern Tibetan plateau are studied. The results are a reference for regional seismic hazard assessment and provide a basis for the physics-based numerical prediction of earthquakes.     

Operational earthquake forecasting in Europe: progress,despite challenges

Is Europe-wide operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) possible? We discuss the myriad problems that prevent it today, many of which relate to heterogeneities in earthquake recording, processing, and reporting. We contemplate the difficulty of building models that cross political boundaries, and we consider the prospect of European OEF in light of recent efforts to harmonize long-term seismic hazard assessment among several nations. Emphasizing the Strategies and Tools for Real-time Earthquake Risk Reduction (REAKT) project, we report achievements related to short-term seismicity forecasting in Iceland and Italy that could apply elsewhere in Europe. In Iceland, collaboration fostered by REAKT resulted in a revised earthquake catalog and a prototype OEF system. We report results from an experiment conducted with this prototype; these results suggest ensemble models provide an information gain, updating models more frequently improves their forecast skill, and that OEF is computationally feasible. In Italy, REAKT supported the creation of an ensemble model that now issues weekly hazard forecasts. We present examples of these forecasts, highlighting the problem that OEF often yields low probabilities, which are difficult to interpret and convert into actionable decisions. Motivated by such low hazard probabilities, we highlight Europe’s pioneering efforts in operational earthquake loss forecasting and mention solutions to problems that currently prevent OEF at the European scale.     

基于波形相似性的单台地震目录校正

本文基于波形相似性提出了一种适用于地震序列中单台事件目录校正的方法。以福建仙游地震序列为研究对象,应用双差地震定位（HypoDD）算法对多台事件进行重定位,依据记录波形相似性将仙游地震序列事件划分为161个事件丛集,以多台事件重定位目录为参考,对单台事件目录进行校正。结果表明,本方法能够有效地实现单台事件目录的合理校正,有助于提升地震序列目录的完整性和地震目录的实用性。以HypoDD重定位目录为参考的校正目录可用于地震参数计算。分析校正后的仙游地震序列目录认为,序列中的单台事件主要由金钟水库库区局部应力调整诱发。      

Intermediate-term Predictions of Earthquakes in Italy: Algorithm M8

—Large earthquakes in Italy are preceded by a specific seismic activation which could be diagnosed by a reproducible intermediate-term earthquake prediction method—a modification for lower seismic rate areas of the algorithm, known as M8 (Keilis-Borok and Kossobokov, 1990). Use has been made of the PFG-ING catalog of earthquakes, compiled on a regular basis, to determine areas and times of increased probability for occurrences of M≥ 6 earthquakes. In retroactive simulation of forward prediction, for the period 1972–1995, both the 1976 Friuli, M = 6.1 and the 1980 Irpinia, M = 6.5 earthquakes are predicted. In the experiment where priority magnitude scale is used, the times of increased probability for a strong earthquake to occur (TIPs) occupy less than a quarter of the total magnitude-space-time domain, and are rather stable with respect to positioning of circles of investiga tion. Successful stability tests have been made considering a recently compiled catalog (CCI97) (Peresan et al., 1997). In combination with the CN algorithm results (Costa et al., 1996) the spatio-temporal uncertainty of the prediction could be reduced to 5%. The use of M8 for the forward prediction requires the computations to be repeated each half-year, using the updated catalog.     

Iranian earthquakes, a uniform catalog with moment magnitudes

A uniform earthquake catalog is an essential tool in any seismic hazard analysis. In this study, an earthquake catalog of Iran and adjacent areas was compiled, using international and national databanks. The following priorities were applied in selecting magnitude and earthquake location: (a) local catalogs were given higher priority for establishing the location of an earthquake and (b) global catalogs were preferred for determining earthquake magnitudes. Earthquakes that have occurred within the bounds between 23–42° N and 42–65° E, with a magnitude range of M _W 3.5–7.9, from the third millennium BC until April 2010 were included. In an effort to avoid the “boundary effect,” since the newly compiled catalog will be mainly used for seismic hazard assessment, the study area includes the areas adjacent to Iran. The standardization of the catalog in terms of magnitude was achieved by the conversion of all types of magnitude into moment magnitude, M _W, by using the orthogonal regression technique. In the newly compiled catalog, all aftershocks were detected, based on the procedure described by Gardner and Knopoff (Bull Seismol Soc Am 64:1363–1367, 1974). The seismicity parameters were calculated for the six main tectonic seismic zones of Iran, i.e., the Zagros Mountain Range, the Alborz Mountain Range, Central Iran, Kope Dagh, Azerbaijan, and Makran.     

Updated seismic hazard assessment of Tunisia

Modern earthquake loss models make use of earthquake catalogs relevant to the seismic hazard assessment upon seismicity and seismotectonic analysis. The main objective of this paper is to investigate a recently compiled catalog (National Institute of Meteorology or INM catalog: 412-2011) and to generate seismic hazard maps through classical probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and smoothed-gridded seismicity models for Tunisia. It is now established with the local earthquake bulletin that the recent seismicity of Tunisia is sparse and moderate. Therefore, efforts must be undertaken to elaborate a robust hazard analysis for risk assessment and seismic design purposes. These recommendations follow the recently published reports by the World Bank that describe the seismic risk in Tunis City as being beyond a tolerable level with an MSK intensity level of VII. Some attempts were made during the past two decades to assess the seismic hazard for Tunisia and they have mostly failed to properly investigate the historical and instrumental seismicity catalog. This limitation also exists for the key aspect of epistemic and random uncertainties impact on the final seismic hazard assessment. This study also investigates new ground motion prediction equations suitable for use in Tunisia. The methodology applied herein uses, for the first time in PSHA of Tunisia, seismicity parameters integrated in logic tree framework to capture epistemic uncertainties through three different seismic source models. It also makes use of the recently released version of OpenQuake engine; an open-source tool for seismic hazard and risk assessment developed in the framework of the Global Earthquake Model.     

根据西德戈丁根地震台仪器记录编制的中国地震目录——对中国地震目录中1903年以来M7地震参数的核对day

本文根据西德戈丁根(Goettingen)台自1903年装置维肖尔式地震仪以来,连续观测的八十余年记录,选编了中国及其邻区的地震目录。另一方面又根据中国自己编制的中国地震目录已有的几种版本中,汇编了一份1903——1985年M7.0地震最新公布的数据的目录。本文对这两套目录所提供的地震次数及其参数,作了初步对比。为研究中国仪器记录地震所测参数的时间连贯性提供了一个重要机会。本文同时还列出了上述各个中国地震在目前世界上最主要的十四种地震目录中所给出的参数。这使我们能在纵(1903——1985年同一仪器的连续记录中),横(戈丁根台目录、中国目录以及世界主要的十四种目录)两方面来研究中国地震。      

Data replenishment of five moderate earthquake sequences in Japan,with semi-automatic cluster selection

Missing early aftershocks following relatively large or moderate earthquakes can cause significant bias in the analysis of seismic catalogs. In this paper, we systematically address the aftershock missing problem for five earthquake sequences associated with moderate-size events that occurred inland Japan, by using a stochastic replenishing method. The method is based on the notion that if a point process (e.g., earthquake sequence) with time-independent marks (e.g., magnitudes) is completely observed, it can be transformed into a homogeneous Poisson process by a bi-scale empirical transformation. We use the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) earthquake catalog to select the aftershock data and replenish the missing early events using the later complete part of each aftershock sequence. The time windows for each sequence span from 6 months before the mainshock to three months after. The semi-automatic spatial selection uses a clustering method for the epicentral selection of earthquakes. The results obtained for the original JMA catalog and replenished datasets are compared to get insight into the biases that the missing early aftershocks may cause on the Omori-Utsu law parameters’ estimation, characterizing the aftershock decay with time from the mainshock. We have also compared the Omori-Utsu law parameter estimates for two datasets following the same mainshock; the first dataset is the replenished sequence, while the second dataset has been obtained by waveform-based analysis to detect early aftershocks that are not recorded in the JMA catalog. Our results demonstrate that the Omori-Utsu law parameters estimated for the replenished datasets are robust with respect to the threshold magnitude used for the analyzed datasets. Even when using aftershock time windows as short as three days, the replenished datasets provide stable Omori-Utsu law parameter estimations. The p-values for all the analyzed sequences are about 1.1 and c-values are significantly smaller compared to those of original datasets. Our findings prove that the replenishment method is a fast, reliable approach to address the missing aftershock problem.     

Earthquake Patterns in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe

We extend existing branching models for earthquake occurrences by incorporating potentially important estimates of tectonic deformation and by allowing the parameters in the models to vary across different tectonic regimes. We partition the Earth’s surface into five regimes: trenches (including subduction zones and oceanic convergent boundaries and earthquakes in outer rise or overriding plate); fast spreading ridges and oceanic transforms; slow spreading ridges and transforms; active continental zones, and plate interiors (everything not included in the previous categories). Our purpose is to specialize the models to give them the greatest possible predictive power for use in earthquake forecasts. We expected the parameters of the branching models to be significantly different in the various tectonic regimes, because earlier studies (Bird and Kagan in Bull Seismol Soc Am 94(6):2380–2399, 2004) found that the magnitude limits and other parameters differed between similar categories. We compiled subsets of the CMT and PDE earthquake catalogs corresponding to each tectonic regime, and optimized the parameters for each, and for the whole Earth, using a maximum likelihood procedure. We also analyzed branching models for California and Nevada using regional catalogs. Our estimates of parameters that can be compared to those of other models were consistent with published results. Examples include the proportion of triggered earthquakes and the exponent describing the temporal decay of triggered earthquakes. We also estimated epicentral location uncertainty and rupture zone size and our results are consistent with independent estimates. Contrary to our expectation, we found no dramatic differences in the branching parameters for the various tectonic regimes. We did find some modest differences between regimes that were robust under changes in earthquake catalog and lower magnitude threshold. Subduction zones have the highest earthquake rates, the largest upper magnitude limit, and the highest proportion of triggered events. Fast spreading ridges have the smallest upper magnitude limit and the lowest proportion of triggered events. The statistical significance of these variations cannot be assessed until methods are developed for estimating confidence limits reliably. Some results apparently depend on arbitrary decisions adopted in the analysis. For example, the proportion of triggered events decreases as the lower magnitude limit is increased, possibly because our procedure for assigning independence probability favors larger earthquakes. In some tests we censored earthquakes occurring near and just after a previous event, to account for the fact that most such earthquakes will be missing from the catalog. Fortunately the branching model parameters were hardly affected, suggesting that the inability to measure immediate aftershocks does not cause a serious estimation bias. We compare our branching model with the ETAS model and discuss the differences in the models parametrization and the results of earthquake catalogs analysis.     

Numerical Modelling of Block-structure Dynamics: Application to the Vrancea Region

—A seismically active region is modelled as a system of absolutely rigid blocks separated by infinitely thin plane faults. The interaction of the blocks along the fault planes and with the underlying medium is viscous-elastic. The system of blocks moves as a consequence of prescribed motion of the boundary blocks and of the underlying medium. When, for some part of a fault plane the stress exceeds a certain strength level, a stress-drop ("a failure") occurs, and it can cause failures in other parts of the fault planes. In our model the failures represent earthquakes. As a result of the numerical simulation a synthetic earthquake catalog is produced. ? The procedure is applied to the numerical modelling of the dynamics of the block-structure, which approximates the tectonic structure of the Vrancea region. The result of the numerical experiment is a synthetic earthquake catalog with the space distribution of epicenters close to the real distribution and the frequency-magnitude relations (Gutenberg-Richter curves) obtained for the synthetic and real catalogs possessing some common features.     

Assessment of Creep Events as Potential Earthquake Precursors: Application to the Creeping Section of the San Andreas Fault, California

—We report the analysis of over 16 years of fault creep and seismicity data from part of the creeping section of the San Andreas fault to examine and assess the temporal association between creep events and subsequent earthquakes. The goal is to make a long-term evaluation of creep events as a potential earthquake precursor. We constructed a catalog of creep events from available digital creepmeter data and compared it to a declustered seismicity catalog for the area between San Juan Bautista and San Benito, California, for 1980 to 1996. For magnitude thresholds of 3.8 and above and time windows of 5 to 10 days, we find relatively high success rates (40% to 55% 'hits') but also very high false alarm rates (generally above 90%). These success rates are statistically significant (0.0007 < P < 0.04). We also tested the actual creep event catalog against two different types of synthetic seismicity catalogs, and found that creep events are followed closely in time by earthquakes from the real catalog far more frequently than the average for the synthetic catalogs, generally by more than two standard deviations. We find no identifiable spatial pattern between the creep events and earthquakes that are hit or missed. We conclude that there is a significant temporal correlation between creep events and subsequent small to moderate earthquakes, however that additional information (such as from other potential precursory phenomena) is required to reduce the false alarm rate to an acceptable level.     

Application of fuzzy clustering method to determining sub-fault planes of earthquake from aftershocks sequence

Earthquake rupture process generally involves several faults activities instead of a single fault. A new method using both fuzzy clustering and principal component analysis makes it possible to reconstruct three dimensional structure of involved faults in earthquake if the aftershocks around the active fault planes distribute uniformly. When seismic events are given, the optimal faults structures can be determined by our new method. Each of sub-fault planes is fully characterized by its central location, length, width, strike and dip. The resolution determines the number of fault segments needed to describe the earthquake catalog. The higher the resolution, the finer the structure of the reconstructed fault segments. The new method successfully reconstructs the fault segments using synthetic earthquake catalogs. By taking the 28 June 1992 Landers earthquake occured in southern California as an example, the reconstructed fault segments are consistent with the faults already known on geological maps or blind faults that appeared quite frequently in longer-term catalogs.     

2013年甘肃岷县漳县M_S6.6地震余震序列时域衰减特征分析

本文基于补充遗漏地震事件后的地震目录和修正的大森公式,对2013年7月22日甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震余震序列时间域衰减特征进行了分析.鉴于主震后短时间内目录遗漏的余震较多,首先利用岷县台连续地震记录波形的高频包络差,检测主震后3h内目录遗漏的地震.经检测在主震后3h内共发现目录遗漏的ML1.0以上地震139个,最大震级为ML3.6.主震后1000s内检测到遗漏地震69个,约为目录给出余震数量的6倍.而后使用补充遗漏地震的目录,基于修正的大森公式分别拟合余震频度和余震地震矩随时间的变化.结果显示拟合p值约为1.07,表明岷县漳县地震余震序列衰减速率与全球平均水平接近,而未补充遗漏地震的频度拟合会造成余震序列衰减速率的低估.利用高频包络差直接计算地震频度曲线,通过三种衰减模式对地震频度曲线拟合参数比较,未观察到岷县漳县地震主震后存在早期余震缺失现象.分析认为,加入遗漏地震可以提高余震频度拟合估计衰减速率结果的准确度和精度,若缺少遗漏地震检测结果,则使用地震矩拟合所得衰减速率结果准确度较优,但需充分考虑其精度上的误差.在分析余震序列衰减特征的实际研究工作中,需根据地震目录完整性选择适当的拟合方法.     

Characteristics of sunspot longitudinal distribution and their correlation with solar activity in pre-Greenwich data

We study and compare characteristics of the sunspot group latitude distribution in two catalogs: extended Greenwich (1874–2014) and Schwabe (1825–1867) (Arlt et al., 2013). We show that both datasets reveal similar correlations between the latitude and amplitude characteristics of the 11-year cycle: the latitude dispersion correlates with the current activity and the sunspot mean latitude at the cycle’s maximum is proportional to its amplitude. This agrees with the conclusions drawn in (Ivanov et al., 2011; Ivanov and Miletsky, 2014) for the Greenwich catalog. We show that the latitude properties of the sunspot distribution are much more tolerant to gaps in observational data than traditional amplitude indices of activity. Therefore, the discovered correlations can be used for estimation of the observation quality and independent normalization of the activity levels in spotty pre-Greenwich data. We exemplified this using the Schwabe catalog. In addition, we show that the first part of the Schwabe data probably contains errors in sunspot latitudes, which lead to overestimation of the sunspot latitude dispersions.     

地震活动性的统计分析:由过去推测将来的可能性研究

为了由过去的地震活动性推测将来的地震活动性,引入了地震（震级≥m）的期望年发生率v（≥m）来描述一个地区的地震活动性．根据全球地震目录（1964-1994年）以及南加州（1932-1995年）和华北（1970-1994年）两个区域地震目录资料,以统计样本量作为目录记录时间长短的相对量度,对由不同的统计样本量计算得出的地震实际年发生率v（≥m,T,t）进行了统计分析,得到三点结沦：①在统计样本量n足够大的情况下,地震实际年发生率表现出准平稳时间过程的特征,可近似地看作地震期望年发生率,本文给出了这种近似的误差（离差系数）与统计样本量之间的定量关系;②离差系数与统计样本量之间的关系与震级无关,表现出不同震级层次的相似性;③统计样本量相同时,不同震级的地震期望年发生率之间满足logv（≥）=a－bm的关系,形式上与G－R关系相似,但它给出了由小地震的统计特征估计大地震的期望年发生率及其统计误差的方法．基于上述结论,进一步讨论了地震活动性的统计特征在地震危险性分析中的潜在应用。