唐山市新区预测震害烈度的确定

通过分析唐山市新区地震地质资料、历史地震资料并结合唐山大地震与强余震的分布规律等，综合确定唐山新区预测震害烈度，为房屋震害预测分析提供依据。     

唐山市古冶区预测震害烈度的确定

通过分析唐山市古冶区地震地质资料、历史地震资料并结合唐山市7.8级大地震强余震的分布规律等,综合确定唐山古冶区预测震害烈度,为房屋震害预测分析提供依据。     

桥梁群体震害预测方法的研究

本文研究了桥梁群体震害预测方法的理论，并采用模糊数学、灰色系统理论和概率分析方法，建立了中、小型桥梁群体震害预测的数学模型，在对江南一带城市地震震害预测工作中桥梁抽样单体震害预测经验法的计算基础上，给出了公路桥梁在不同地震烈度影响耻的单因素评价矩阵，为区域性的地震震害预测工作提供了一个有力的实用工具。     

中国地震灾害预测的研究进展

综述了中国目前震害预测研究的成果，分析了震害预测研究的问题并展望了今后的发展趋势。     

农村地区震害及经济损失快速预测方法的实践——以浙江鄞县皎口地震区为例

本文应用震害预测理论和方法，对浙江鄞县皎口地震区的震害预测实践作一介绍。同时也为经济发达的农村地区如何开展震害预测研究作一探讨。着重介绍了农村地区在地震突发的情况下，如何开展快速震害预测。     

展望建筑物震害预测的发展方向

本文回顾了我国 建筑物震害预测研究和应用的发展过程，评论了各种预测方法的优缺点，指出了各家建议预测方法存在的不确定性，针对存在的问题，提出了减少消除物震害预测方法中不确定性的途径。最后，展望了建筑物震害预测在的实用前景和发展方向。     

地震重点监视防御区县市震害预测方法研究

通过对地震重点监视防御区县、市的震害预测，提出以县城为重点、乡镇为单元的震害预测思路，同时对震害预测和减灾对策的工作程序和工作方法进行了研究     

建筑物震害预测模糊震害指数法

建筑物震害预测是城市防震减灾的基础工作之一。本文在分析现有震害预测方法的基础上，提出了一种新的震害预测方法－模糊震害指数法。模糊震害指数法以现有震害预测资料为基础，采用模糊数学方法实现。本文详细阐述了模糊震害指数法的理论模型，推导了其数学公式，最后给出了实例分析。     

基于支持向量机的砌体结构震害预测新方法研究

应用简便、可靠的震害预测方法对我国大量存在的砌体结构进行抗震性能评估，是防震减灾工作的重要举措。基于支持向量机(support vector machine, SVM)理论提出了砌体结构震害预测新方法。首先，详细阐述了基于SVM的砌体结构震害预测新方法的基本原理及步骤；其次，确定了砌体结构的震害影响因子及量化值，建立了震害样本数据库及预测模型；最后，将SVM预测结果分别与实际震害结果和BP神经网络预测结果进行对比分析。结果表明，基于SVM模型的砌体结构震害预测方法步骤简单。结果可靠，在样本数据有限的情况下相对BP神经网络算法有较大的优势，可以用于砌体结构的震害预测。     

基于已有震害矩阵模拟的群体震害预测方法研究

本文提出了一种群体震害预测方法，根据已有建筑物震害预测结果或震害统计分析结果，按照影响建筑物抗震能力的主要因素，由普查资料统计出的建筑物各影响因素的建筑面积比例得出模拟震害矩阵与已知矩阵的贴近度，最后进行加权平均，建立具体预测对象群体建筑物的震害矩阵。     

SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences SUBJECT INDEX TO VOLUME 57(2014)

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Distribution of throughfall and stemflow in multi‐strata agroforestry,perennial monoculture,fallow and primary forest in central Amazonia,Brazil

The partitioning of rain water into throughfall, stemflow and interception loss when passing through plant canopies depends on properties of the respective plant species, such as leaf area and branch angles. In heterogeneous vegetation, such as tropical forest or polycultural systems, the presence of different plant species may consequently result in a mosaic of situations with respect to quantity and quality of water inputs into the soil. As these processes influence not only the water availability for the plants, but also water infiltration and nutrient leaching, the understanding of plant effects on the repartitioning of rain water may help in the optimization of land use systems and management practices. We measured throughfall and stemflow in a perennial polyculture (multi‐strata agroforestry), monocultures of peach palm (Bactris gasipaes) for fruit and for palmito, a monoculture of cupuaçu (Theobroma grandiflorum), spontaneous fallow and primary forest during one year in central Amazonia, Brazil. The effect on rain water partitioning was measured separately for four useful tree species in the polyculture and for two tree species in the primary forest. Throughfall at two stem distances, and stemflow, differed significantly between tree species, resulting in pronounced spatial patterns of water input into the soil in the polyculture system. For two tree species, peach palm for fruit (Bactris gasipaes) and Brazil nut trees (Bertholletia excelsa), the water input into the soil near the stem was significantly higher than the open‐area rainfall. This could lead to increased nutrient leaching when fertilizer is applied close to the stem of these trees. In the primary forest, such spatial patterns could also be detected, with significantly higher water input near a palm (Oenocarpus bacaba) than near a dicotyledonous tree species (Eschweilera sp.). Interception losses were 6·4% in the polyculture, 13·9 and 12·3% in the peach palm monocultures for fruit and for palmito, respectively, 0·5% in the cupuaçu monoculture and 3·1% in the fallow. With more than 20% of the open‐area rainfall, the highest stemflow contributions to the water input into the soil were measured in the palm monocultures and in the fallow. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Anthropogenic Eutrophication and Red Tide Outbreak in Lacustrine Systems of the Kashmir Himalaya

Red tide, a recurrent phenomenon has become conspicuous in several Kashmir lake ecosystems since 1991. The responsible organism (Euglena pedunculata), a rare flagellate rediscovered in the Kashmir Himalaya (Khan 1993) caused first and unprecedented red tide outbreak, constituting a maximum of 96% of resident numerical phytoplankton density in Dal Lake. At present, conflicting hypotheses exist on the generation of causal assemblage(s) imparting redness to waters: Jeeji Bai (1991) linked its origin to acid precipitation – a fallout of burning oil‐fields during the Gulf War – whilst Khan (1993) holds local factor(s) responsible. Field/experimental studies support the latter contention that the influx of untreated sewage, in unison with warm temperatures, high levels of PhAR, iron and interruption to hydrological flow‐pattern together with absence/or reduction in grazing activity created conducive environmental milieu for red tide outbreak. Dal Lake “red tide” drifted the bloom‐inoculum to other waters, including Lake Wular, where additional ecological niches were carved out, threatening the aesthetic value and biological diversity of Kashmir lakes. Ecological monitoring indicates frequent seasonal red tide occurrence in Dal Lake (including summer‐autumn event of 1998) which testifies its unabated eutrophication status. Further studies are needed on ecological adaptability and biogeographic distribution of this rare and unique red tide‐causing flagellate.