Tectonic Stress State Changes Before and After the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake in the Eastern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau

Crustal tectonic activities are essentially the consequences of the accumulation and release of in situ stress. Therefore, studying the stress state near active faults is important for understanding crustal dynamics and earthquake occurrences. In this paper, using in situ stress measurement results obtained by hydraulic fracturing in the vicinity of the Longmenshan fault zone before and after the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake and finite element modeling, the variation of stress state before and after the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake is investigated. The results show that the shear stress, which is proportional to the difference between principal stresses, increases with depth and distance from the active fault in the calm period or after the earthquakes, and tends to approach to the regional stress level outside the zone influenced by the fault. This distribution appears to gradually reverse with time and the change of fault properties such as frictional strength. With an increase in friction coefficient, low stress areas are reduced and areas with increased stress accumulation are more obvious near the fault. In sections of the fault with high frictional strengths, in situ stress clearly increases in the fault. Stress accumulates more rapidly in the fault zone relative to the surrounding areas, eventually leading to a stress field that peaks at the fault zone. Such a reversal in the stress field between the fault zone and surrounding areas in the magnitude of the stress field is a potential indicator for the occurrence of strong earthquakes.     

四川芦山2013年Ms7.0地震发震构造初步研究

2013年4月20日8时2分,四川龙门山断裂带的雅安芦山发生Ms7.0级地震,震中位于芦山县太平镇和双石镇之间,震源深度13～14km,震中最大烈度达IX级。震中区野外调查发现,尽管房屋建筑损坏较严重,但这次地震没有产生明显的地表破裂构造,仅见少量的地裂缝和喷砂冒水现象。高分辨率遥感图像解译、主余震分布、震源机制解等综合分析认为,该地震是龙门山断裂带西南段一次独立的破裂事件,属于逆冲型地震,沿双石-大川断裂中南段发生破裂,主破裂面西倾,倾角33°～43°,推断芦山地震与龙门山构造带底部滑脱带(13～19km)断坡构造活动有关。历史上,沿双石-大川断裂发生至少2次Ms6～6.5级地震,由此认为芦山地震是龙门山断裂带西南段特征型地震,与汶川地震不同。原地地应力测量和监测数据表明这是汶川地震后龙门山断裂带西南段应力释放的结果。     

Preliminary Results of In-situ Stress Measurements along the Longmenshan Fault Zone after the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake

Four months after the Wenchuan Ms 8 earthquake in western Sichuan, China, in situ stress measurements were carried out along the Longmenshan fault zone with the purpose of obtaining stress parameters for earthquake hazard assessment. In-situ stresses were measured in three new boreholes by using overcoring with the piezomagnetic stress gauges for shallow depths and hydraulic fracturing for lower depths. The maximum horizontal stress in shallow depths (～20 m) is about 4.3 MPa, oriented NI9°E, in the epicenter area at Yingxiu Town, about 9.7 MPa, oriented N51°W, at Baoxing County in the southwestern Longmenshan range, and about 2.6 MPa, oriented N39°E, near Kangding in the southernmost zone of the Longmenshan range. Hydraulic fracturing at borehole depths from 100 to 400 m shows a tendency towards increasing stress with depth. A comparison with the results measured before the Wenchuan earthquake along the Longmenshan zone and in the Tibetan Plateau demonstrates that the stress level remains relatively high in the southwestern segment of the Longmenshan range, and is still moderate in the epicenter zone. These results provide a key appraisal for future assessment of earthquake hazards of the Longmenshan fault zone and the aftershock occurrences of the Wenchuan earthquake.     

Preliminary Results of In‐situ Stress Measurements along the Longmenshan Fault Zone after the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake

Abstract: Four months after the Wenchuan Ms 8 earthquake in western Sichuan, China, in situ stress measurements were carried out along the Longmenshan fault zone with the purpose of obtaining stress parameters for earthquake hazard assessment. In-situ stresses were measured in three new boreholes by using overcoring with the piezomagnetic stress gauges for shallow depths and hydraulic fracturing for lower depths. The maximum horizontal stress in shallow depths (~20 m) is about 4.3 MPa, oriented N19°E, in the epicenter area at Yingxiu Town, about 9.7 MPa, oriented N51°W, at Baoxing County in the southwestern Longmenshan range, and about 2.6 MPa, oriented N39°E, near Kangding in the southernmost zone of the Longmenshan range. Hydraulic fracturing at borehole depths from 100 to 400 m shows a tendency towards increasing stress with depth. A comparison with the results measured before the Wenchuan earthquake along the Longmenshan zone and in the Tibetan Plateau demonstrates that the stress level remains relatively high in the southwestern segment of the Longmenshan range, and is still moderate in the epicenter zone. These results provide a key appraisal for future assessment of earthquake hazards of the Longmenshan fault zone and the aftershock occurrences of the Wenchuan earthquake.     

Reexamining the Seismological Implications of the Present-day Stress State of the Yingxiu-Beichuan Fault after the Wenchuan Earthquake

The present-day stress state of the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault after the Wenchuan earthquake was re-estimated using measured in-situ stress data obtained after the Wenchuan earthquake. The results reveal that the gradient coefficients of principal stresses versus depth decrease from south to north along the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault, revealing that the stress level decreases from south to north. The consistency between the present-day stress levels and surface ruptures generated during the earthquake indicates that the accumulated tectonic stress beneath the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault before the Wenchuan earthquake was relieved in form of surface ruptures. This resulted in the stress remaining high in the southern section of the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault but relatively low in the northern section. Abnormal high pore pressure conditions and an extremely low frictional coefficient play important role in the interpretation of the stress field adjustment and seismic events observed after the Wenchuan earthquake along this fault, according to the estimation results using the Coulomb frictional-failure theory incorporating frictional coefficients ranging from 0.4 to 1.0. To accurately estimate the seismological hazard of the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault by analyzing fault instability using the Coulomb frictional-failure theory, much attention should be focused on the pore pressure conditions and the evolution state of the frictional coefficient under the present-day stress state.     

基于GPS速度场的四川地区1999～2018年应变场特征演化分析

基于1999～2018年GPS水平运动速度场数据,解算并分析了四川“Y”形构造区各周期网格速度场、地壳应变率场,并讨论了近20年尺度的地壳应变场演化过程。研究表明：1）2008年汶川地震前1999～2007期GPS速度场相对稳定,整体“Y”型构造区地壳运动变化不大,但汶川地震后龙门山断裂带发生较大变化,由4.0 mm/a增至10.0 mm/a。2）1999～2007年,整个四川“Y”型构造区应变场演化特征微弱,而汶川地震之后的两个周期,最大剪应变自龙门山山前断裂向西到汶川一带,形成了由高到低、平行于龙门山断裂带走向的高密度梯度带。龙门山断裂带以ES或EES向的主压应变为主,其量值变化范围为 5.0×10^-8 /a～12.0×10^-8 /a;鲜水河断裂由震前主拉应变,改为震后近EW向的主压应变特征。面膨胀结果则显示龙门山断裂带由震前低密度梯度带瞬间变为平行于龙门山断裂带走向的高密度变化区。3）2008年汶川地震和2013年芦山地震是最为重要的时刻分割点。近20年的应变率场变化,更似一个“时间—地壳构造运动”的大轮回,目前四川“Y”型构造区整体处于2008年汶川地震前较为稳定的活动周期。龙门山断裂带仍值得我们做出更为深入的研究。     

Analysis of the Wenchuan Ms8.0 Earthquake’s Co-seismic Stress and Displacement Change by Using the Finite Element Method

The variation of in situ stress before and after earthquakes is an issue studied by geologists. In this paper, on the basis of the fault slip dislocation model of Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake, the changes of co-seismic displacement and the distribution functions of stress tensor around the Longmen Shan fault zone are calculated. The results show that the co-seismic maximum surface displacement is 4.9 m in the horizontal direction and 6.5 m in the vertical direction, which is almost consistent with the on-site survey and GPS observations. The co-seismic maximum horizontal stress in the hanging wall and footwall decreased sharply as the distance from the Longmen Shan fault zone increased. However, the vertical stress and minimum horizontal stress increased in the footwall and in some areas of the hanging wall. The study of the co-seismic displacement and stress was mainly focused on the long and narrow region along the Longmen Shan fault zone, which coincides with the distribution of the earthquake aftershocks. Therefore, the co-seismic stress only affects the aftershocks, and does not affect distant faults and seismic activities. The results are almost consistent with in situ stress measurements at the two sites before and after Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake. Along the fault plane, the co-seismic shear stress in the dip direction is larger than that in the strike direction, which indicates that the faulting mechanism of the Longmen Shan fault zone is a dominant thrust with minor strike-slipping. The results can be used as a reference value for future studies of earthquake mechanisms.     

量子地震模型:对汶川地震的解释

从大量的地震参数分析可知,在由同一主震引发的所有的余震发生的位置都不同。在发生地震之前,地震的震中位置都是一些相互独立、互不连续且发生了弹性应变的单元个体,笔者称这些独立不连续的弹性应变单元称为应变量子。综合前人研究成果,笔者建立了一个地震模型。运用该模型对2008年5月12日发生在中国汶川地震作了解释:由于在龙门山断裂带周围形成了许多的应变量子,这些应变量子的形成阻碍了龙门山断裂的运动,产生滑移亏损,从而造成在地震前测量到的龙门山断裂带速度场变化很不显著。2008年5月12日14时28分时,在龙门山断裂周围已形成应变量子中的其中一应变量子最先达到它的最大储能,释放它所储存的应变能,引发了汶川Ms8.0地震。此次地震产生的地震波引发了龙门山断裂周围地壳应力的重分布,使得其他应变量子提前达到最大储能,释放出能量,于是触发成千上万次余震。此外,我们或许可以通过观测断裂滑移速率的变化情况来预测断裂周围应变量子的形成,从而来预测该断裂是否存在潜在地震的可能。     

Seismogenic Structure of the April 20, 2013, Lushan Ms7 Earthquake in Sichuan

At 08:02 on April 20, 2013, a Ms7.0 earthquake occurred in Lushan, Ya'an, in the Longmenshan fault zone, Sichuan. The epicenter was located between Taiping Town and Shuangshi Town, Lushan County and the maximum earthquake intensity at the epicenter reached class IX. Field investigations in the epicenter area found that, although buildings were seriously damaged, no obvious surface rupture structure was produced, only some ground fissures and sand blows and water ejection phenomena being seen. An integrated analysis of high-resolution remote sensing image interpretation, mainshock and aftershock distribution, and focal mechanism solutions indicated that this earthquake was an independent rupturing event in the southwestern segment of the Longmenshan fault zone, belonging to the thrust-type earthquake. Ruptures occurred along the south-central segment of the Shuangshi-Dachuan fault and the principal rupture plane dipped SW at 33-43°. It is inferred that the Lushan earthquake might be related to the ramp activity of the basal detachment zone (13-19 km) of the Longmenshan fault zone. Historically, there occurred at least two Ms6-6.5 earthquakes along the Shuangshi-Dachuan fault zone; thus it is thought that the Lushan earthquake, different from the Wenchuan earthquake, was a characteristic one in the southwestern segment of the Longmenshan fault zone. In-situ stress measurements indicated the Lushan earthquake was the result of stress release of the southwestern segment of the Longmenshan fault zone after the Wenchuan earthquake. This paper analyzes the tectonic setting of the seismogenic structure of this earthquake.     

汶川地震后沿龙门山裂断带原地应力测量初步结果

2008年5月12日在中国四川省西部汶川发生Ms8.0地震,震中位于青藏东缘龙门山断裂带。地震发生后的4个月,沿龙门山断裂带中南段开展了原地应力测量,获得了3个测点的应力大小和方向。在3个测孔中浅部采用压磁应力解除法,深部采用水压致裂法。浅部测量结果显示,位于震中区映秀测点,水平最大主应力值为4.3MPa,最大主应力方向为N19°E;宝兴测点位于震中区西南的龙门山断裂带南段,汶川地震没有导致该段地表破裂,该点获得的水平最大主应力值为9.8MPa,最大主应力方向为N51°W;位于龙门山断裂带最西南端的康定测点,水平最大主应力值为2.6MPa,最大主应力方向为N39°E。利用水压致裂法对各钻孔100～400m深度进行了应力测量,获得了应力随深度变化趋势和应力状态。与震前其它应力测量结果和中国其它地区表层地应力测量结果比较,龙门山断裂带西南段处于相对高应力水平,震中区仍处于中等应力水平。这项研究成果将为评价龙门山断裂带余震和今后强震发展趋势提供关键构造物理参数。     

龙门山地震断裂带地应力分布及其对井壁稳定的 影响———以WFSD-2 井为例

[摘 要]龙门山地震断裂带是我国最为强烈的地震带之一,地层破碎、地应力异常,钻孔缩径造成孔内事故频发,井壁稳定问题十分突出。本文介绍了汶川地震断裂带科学钻探施工中所发生的孔内事故情况,并通过对地层应力数据的统计分析,得出龙门山地震断裂带最大水平应力和最小水平应力随深度变化的回归曲线,最大水平应力梯度为4. 52MPa/100 m,最小水平应力梯度为2. 51 MPa/100 m。以WFSD-2 井为例,分析了龙门山地震断裂带地层应力、尤其是断层泥应力对井壁稳定的影响;针对膨胀性地层,介绍了一种通过泥浆密度微调现场测定地层坍塌压力和破裂压力的简易方法。     

青藏高原东北缘海原-六盘山断裂带现今地壳应力环境的数值分析

海原-六盘山断裂是青藏高原东北缘的大型边界断裂带,是中国大陆典型的地震危险区。地壳构造加载特征的定量研究有助于分析区域孕震环境,参考青藏高原东北缘GPS形变和岩石圈精细结构等资料,本文建立海原-六盘山断裂带周缘的三维岩石圈分层模型,分析现今构造加载作用下区域地壳形变和应力演化特征。数值计算结果显示:青藏高原东北缘现今处于以北东-南西向的水平挤压为主导和北西-南东向的水平引张的变形特征。青藏高原东北缘中-下地壳流变性质影响上覆脆性地壳应力环境,中地壳较低粘滞系数对应的模型地壳应力计算值与研究区实际地壳应力场相近。海原断裂中-西段构造加载作用显著,具有相对较高的库仑应力积累和最大剪应力分布;而六盘山断裂周缘地壳应力和最大剪应力小于海原断裂带。构造应力积累的空间分布差异说明六盘山断裂具有较弱的构造孕震环境,而研究区走滑型断裂的孕震加载作用显著。尽管六盘山处于较低的应力状态,但仍不能轻易忽视其长期存在的强震空区所暗示的发震潜力。     

汶川Ms8.0地震后龙门山断裂带地壳应力场及其构造意义

2008年5月12日在青藏高原东缘龙门山断裂带中段发生汶川8.0级特大地震。大震发生时释放应力并对震源区及外围构造应力场产生影响,受汶川地震断层破裂方式和强度空间差异性的影响,震后龙门山断裂带地壳应力场也应表现差异特征,至今鲜有针对该科学问题深入的分析和讨论。经过系统收集、梳理汶川地震后沿龙门山断裂带水压致裂地应力测量数据与2008年汶川地震中强余震序列震源机制解资料,对汶川地震后龙门山断裂带中上地壳构造应力场进行厘定,通过与震前构造应力场对比,深入探讨了汶川8.0级地震对龙门山断裂带地壳应力场的影响,进而对汶川震后应力调整过程及青藏高原东缘龙门山地区深部构造变形模式进行研究,研究结果表明:受汶川8.0级地震的影响,震后龙门山断裂带地壳构造应力场空间分布具有差异性,近地表至上地壳15 km深度范围,映秀—青川段最大主应力方向为北西西向、地应力状态为逆走滑型,青川东北部最大主应力方向偏转至北东东向、应力状态转变为走滑型;15~25km深度范围,龙门山断裂带最大主应力方向仍为北西—北西西向、应力状态以逆冲型为主。汶川8.0级地震后,龙门山断裂带中地壳北西西向逆冲挤压的构造应力特征进一步支持了青藏高原东缘龙门山地区东西两侧刚性块体碰撞挤压、逆冲推覆的动力学模式。     

青海格尔木-五道梁地区现今地应力测量结果及其构造分析

本文给出了格尔木一五道梁地区近年地应力测量的结果，并据此进行了构造分析。实测结果表明：最大主应力的方向总体上与区域构造应力场的方向基本一致，呈NE向，局部地区主应力的方向受局部断裂的影响而不同于区域应力场的方向。在地震前后，主应力的大小和方向均发生变化。在震后，昆仑山断裂带附近地应力数值降低约三分之二。     

鄂尔多斯临兴西区深煤层地应力场特征及应力变化分析

大小及方向对深部煤层气开发影响显著。以鄂尔多斯东缘临兴西区为对象, 基于实 验测试、井壁崩落法和断层摩擦系数地应力法,分析了三向主应力方向与大小,阐释了基本特征及其空间发育规律。结果显示：8号煤层垂向应力介于44.94 ~ 50.46 MPa,平均48.47MPa;水平最大主应力介于35.16 ~ 44.53 MPa,平均40.62MPa;水平最小主应力介于28.79~39.45 MPa,平均33.02MPa。9号煤层垂向应力介于45.03~ 50.46 MPa,平均48.57MPa;水平最大主应力介于35.33~44.53 MPa,平均40.69MPa;水平最小主应力介于29.01 ~ 39.45 MPa,平均33.11MPa。误差分析显示此地应力计算结果可靠。三向地应力大小与埋深呈正相关关系。在垂向上,三向地应力相对大小表现出明显分带性,即埋深＜1000m左右为Sh＜Sv＜SH为特征的剪切型地应力带、埋深介于1000~1800m 表现为Sh＜SH＜Sv过渡带、埋深>1800m左右表现为Sh＜SH＜Sv为特征的正断型地应力带。在平面上,地应力在平面上总体呈西北部低、中部与南部高、其余地区适中,主要在T-23-2井和T-19井区存在应力低值带。最大水平主应力地应力方向主要以EW-NEE向为主。地应力场的阐释将为研究区深煤层储层物性评价、勘探选区及钻完井工程设计提供地质参考。     

鄂尔多斯地块南缘地应力测量研究

利用水压致裂法得到的地应力测试数据对鄂尔多斯地块南缘地壳浅部地应力分布规律及断层活动性进行研究。结果表明:（1）两个水平主应力随深度线性增长,应力梯度分别为0.032和0.021,在测量深度域内水平和垂直应力的关系为S_H > S_h > S_V,该应力状态有利于断层发生逆断层活动,与1556年华山大地震的发震正断层的性质不同;（2）研究区的最大水平主应力方向为北南-北北西向,与区域速度矢量场方向一致,与其他资料解译的区域构造应力方向有一些差异,主要是受鄂尔多斯地块周缘断层活动的影响;（3）利用Mohr-Coulomb准则及Byerlee定律,摩擦系数取0.6~1.0,对研究区的地应力状态进行分析,发现鄂尔多斯地块南缘的测点未达到或超过地壳破裂极限状态,不存在断层失稳或地震等其他形式的地壳活动,处于较稳定地壳应力状态;（4）实测数据为该区补充了新的地应力测量资料,研究结果为该区工程设计及建设、构造应力场数值模拟提供了边界条件,对于该区地质灾害评价、地壳稳定性以及大陆动力学的研究具有重要意义。      

中国地质科学院对5.12汶川地震的快速反应与调查研究

面对5.12汶川8级地震突发灾害,中国地质科学院组织专家,科学分析发震动力学背景,第一时间奔赴震中地区开展地表破裂变形与地震地质灾害调查,随后系统开展地震科学钻探选址、活动断裂与地震变形观测、地应力测量、地质灾害地面调查、堰塞湖与水工环综合评价。6位专家参加国家汶川地震专家委员会,编辑出版《汶川地震灾区地震—地质灾害图集》,组织召开汶川地震动力学分析研讨会,2位专家参加国土资源部抗震救灾前方指挥部工作。在第33届国际地质大会期间,组织汶川地震大型展览,应邀作汶川地震、地震科学钻、地表破裂等学术报告,受到国际同行的高度关注。组织申报汶川地震断裂带科学钻探工程,2008年11月第一口地震科学钻开工;组织落实国家专项、973课题、地质调查项目等科研任务,有效地调整了面向地质灾害的学科结构和人才布局。     

大地震前后实测地应力状态变化及其意义——以龙门山断裂带为例

实测地应力状态在连续地震事件前后的变化特征,对于应用地应力实测数据探索开展地震预报等研究有重要意义,但一直以来缺少典型实例研究。以龙门山断裂带西南段的跷碛和映秀地区为研究区,利用该地区汶川地震前至芦山地震后获得的地应力实测数据,分析了表征地应力状态的特征参数在汶川和芦山地震事件前后变化特征,探讨了其对地震预报研究的意义。研究表明,跷碛地区地应力状态特征参数K_HV、K_Hh和μ_m变化表现为芦山地震后值（QQ-14）大于汶川地震前（QQ-99）,QQ-99结果大于汶川地震后值（QQ-09）,而主应力梯度系数变化为QQ-09>QQ-14>QQ-99;分析认为K_HV、K_Hh和μ_m变化规律能准确反映汶川和芦山地震事件前后跷碛地区构造应力场演化特征,而仅用主应力随深度变化梯度系数变化特征,不能完全准确地反映构造应力场调整变化情况;映秀地区,除K_Hh外,主应力随深度变化梯度系数、K_HV和μ_m均表现为汶川地震后结果大于震前,其变化反映的应力场调整变化特征需要补充数据检验;利用地应力状态参数变化规律开展地震预报探索研究时,长期的、可对比的高质量地应力测量数据是研究有所突破的关键。研究成果对于龙门山地区构造应力场和减灾防灾研究有重要意义,对于应用地应力数据探索开展地震预报研究等有参考价值。      

青藏高原及其周围地区区域应力场与构造运动特征

本文系统解析并分析了1931年8月-2005年10月期间青藏高原及其周围发生的905个震级M4．5-8．5地震的震源机制结果,研究了青藏高原岩石圈的区域应力场与构造运动特征。结果表明,来自印度板块的北北东或北东方向的水平挤压应力控制了青藏高原及其周缘地区的岩石圈应力场。从喜马拉雅到贝加尔湖以南包括中国西部的广大范围内,主压应力P轴的水平分量位于近NE-SW方向,形成了一个广域的NE-SW方向的挤压应力场。特别是青藏高原周缘地区,除其东部边缘外,南部的喜马拉雅山前沿以及青藏高原的北部、西部边缘地区所发生的绝大部分地震都属于逆断层型或走滑逆断层型地震,表现出周缘地区的水平挤压应力更为强势。应力场特征充分表明, 印度板块的北上运动,以及它与欧亚板块之间的碰撞,所形成的挤压应力场是青藏高原强烈隆起的直接原因。在青藏高原周缘地区受到强烈挤压应力场控制的同时,有大量正断层型地震集中发生在青藏高原中部海拔4000m以上的地区,其中许多地震是纯正断层型地震。震源机制结果显示,近E-W向或WNW-ESE向的水平扩张应力控制着该区的岩石圈应力场;正断层型地震的断层走向多为南北方向,断层位错矢量的水平分量大体位于近东西方向。这表明青藏高原中部高海拔地区存在着近东西方向的扩张构造运动,且扩张构造运动是该区引张应力场的作用结果。其动力学原因可能与持续隆升的高原自重增大引起的重力崩塌及其周边区域构造应力状况有关。研究青藏高原存在挤压应力场与引张应力场及其构造运动的区域特征,对于认识青藏高原形成、发展的地球动力学机制,有着极其重要的意义。     

跨断层与GPS地壳形变数据联合反演鲜水河断裂地震危险性

为了探索GPS和跨断层地壳形变数据联合反演效果,本文以鲜水河断裂为研究对象,利用1999~2007期,2009~2013期和2013~2017期中国大陆GPS水平速度场数据,使用贝叶斯反演方法,以跨断层数据为先验条件,估算了川滇菱形块体东边界（主要为鲜水河断裂）的断层运动速率。发现增加跨断层数据后,反演图像的近场和远场速率区别更加显著,不同期次的断层活动速率表现出明显的差异。但是,本方法在震前效果并不明显,尤其是在汶川地震前部分跨断层场地的逆向走滑特征很难表现出来,对于地震预测预报也很难起到优势作用,但从反演效果上来看,可以更直观的反映断层在近场和远场上的速率差异以及地震后断层运动速率的分段特征。最终根据上述研究方法认为鲜水河断裂带在汶川地震后,经过多年的应力调整,目前左旋走滑速率已经基本恢复到震前状态,鲜水河断裂南段持续拉张趋势,川滇菱形块体的顺时针旋转作用持续加强,鲜水河断裂的道孚段和磨西段存均在一定的走滑速率亏损,应注意这两个地区的地震危险性,以及这两个地区地震危险的关联性。