中亚地区夏季温度的季节预测

根据1979~2016年春季海表温度、土壤温度以及大尺度气候指数与中亚地区夏季温度的相关关系,确定了印度洋东南部海表温度、非洲西北部土壤温度、大西洋多年代际振荡（AMO）和东亚/西俄型（EA/WR）4个春季预测因子,进而建立了中亚地区夏季温度的预测模型。春季印度洋东南部海表温度暖异常、非洲西北部土壤温度暖异常、AMO正异常与EA/WR负异常均对应夏季中亚地区500 hPa位势高度场正异常,为该地区夏季高温发生提供有利条件。预测模型留一法交叉验证产生的1979~2016年中亚地区夏季温度无（有）趋势的时间序列与观测的无（有）趋势的时间序列的相关为0.65（0.74）,表明该预测模型具有良好的预测能力。研究结果有望帮助提高中亚地区夏季温度的预测技巧。     

Regional features of precipitation over Asia and summer extreme precipitation over Southeast Asia and their associations with atmospheric–oceanic conditions

The variations of both total and extreme precipitations over Asia are characterized by large regional features and seasonality. Extreme precipitation mainly occurs in summer and then in autumn over South Asia but it is a prominent phenomenon in all seasons over Southeast Asia. It explains above 40% of the total precipitation in winter over India, while the ratio of extreme precipitation to total precipitation is 30% or smaller in all seasons over southern-central China. Over Southeast Asia, the largest ratio appears in winter. The extreme precipitation over Southeast Asia (EPSEA) exhibits significant positive trends in all seasons except autumn. The long-term increase in summer EPSEA is associated with significant surface warming over extratropical Asia and the Indo-Pacific oceans and linked to a large-scale anomalous cyclonic pattern over Southeast Asia. An increase in de-trended summer EPSEA is associated with less significant surface warming. However, it is still clearly linked to an anomalous cyclonic pattern over Southeast Asia, contributed by intensifications of monsoon flow from the west, trade wind from the east, and cross-equatorial flow over Indonesia. The antecedent features of increased summer EPSEA include an overall warming over the tropical–subtropical northern hemisphere and an anomalous cyclonic pattern over Southeast Asia in winter and spring. When the large-scale Asian monsoon (measured by the Webster-Yang monsoon index) or the South Asian monsoon is strong, summer extreme precipitation mainly increases over tropical Asia. When monsoon is strong over Southeast Asia or East Asia, extreme precipitation increases over Southeast Asia and decreases over East Asia. A strong summer monsoon over Southeast Asia or East Asia is also followed by decreased autumn extreme precipitation over Southeast Asia.     

EFFECTS OF ANOMALOUS HEATING ON SUMMER MONSOON OVER ASIA*

Based on a zonally non-uniform mean circulation in summer simulated by numerical modelling,perturbation heatings ever South Asia and a perturbation cooling over Northwest Australia were incorporated in a numerical model to discuss their effects on summer monsoon over Asia and the structure of flow disturbance.     

近22 a人为气溶胶对东亚地区夏季风环流影响的数值模拟研究

运用区域气候模式RegCM3耦合入一个化学过程,对东亚地区三类人为排放气溶胶（硫酸盐、黑碳和有机碳）的时空分布特征及其对夏季风环流的影响进行了数值模拟研究。模拟结果显示,气溶胶的引入会引起东亚地区夏季850 hPa风场发生改变,我国江淮以东洋面上空出现了一个气旋式距平环流中心,中心以西的偏北风气流将削弱东亚地区夏季西南季风。通过讨论春季中国地区气溶胶浓度与夏季东亚地区850 hPa经向风的时滞关系,以及夏季中国地区气溶胶浓度与同期东亚地区850 hPa经向风的关系,可以发现,春、夏季中国地区气溶胶浓度均与夏季东亚地区850 hPa经向风有很好的负相关关系,当春季中国北方和夏季中国南方地区气溶胶浓度增加时,中国东部地区夏季偏南季风减弱。这可能与气溶胶改变了大气层顶和地表的辐射强迫,进而引起了海陆气压差异和位势高度场的变化有关。     

中亚和南亚热力差异对塔里木盆地夏季降水的影响

利用美国国家环境预测中心/美国国家大气研究中心(NCEP/NCAR)再分析月平均资料和新疆83站降水资料,分析了1961~2010年南亚和中亚对流层中低层热力差异对塔里木盆地夏季降水的可能影响机制。研究结果表明,塔里木盆地夏季降水与中亚和南亚对流层中低层温度密切相关。当南亚对流层中低层偏暖,中亚偏冷时,500 h Pa中亚上空和蒙古上空分别为异常气旋和反气旋环流,在二者共同作用下,塔里木盆地上空盛行异常的偏南气流,有利于低纬海洋的暖湿气流北上,形成有利于降水的环流条件。同时阿拉伯海上空为异常反气旋环流,中亚上空为异常气旋环流,形成塔里木盆地夏季降水水汽的两步型输送,阿拉伯海水汽被输送至中亚和新疆地区。中亚对流层中低层温度变化主要影响500 h Pa环流,南亚对流层中低层温度变化在低纬水汽向北输送过程中扮演主要角色。青藏高原夏季风偏强时,600 h Pa高原北侧对应异常反气旋环流,异常偏北风引导高纬度冷空气南下,导致中亚区域对流层中低层偏冷,而南亚对流层中低层偏暖则与热带印度洋显著增暖密切相关。     

东亚中纬度夏季陆面增暖与土壤湿度异常的联系

利用1979—2015年ERA-Interim再分析土壤湿度、云量资料,NCEP/NCAR再分析环流资料和CPC土壤湿度资料,分析了东亚中纬度夏季陆面热力异常的时空分布特征及其与前期春季土壤湿度异常的联系,探讨了前期春季土壤湿度影响东亚中纬度夏季陆面增暖的可能途径。结果表明,东亚中纬度夏季土壤表层温度呈全区一致增暖趋势,其中贝加尔湖及以南地区温度变化最剧烈、增暖最迅速,且1990年代中期前后存在一个明显由冷向暖的年代际转变。进一步分析发现,春、夏季西西伯利亚到贝加尔湖北部地区的土壤湿度与夏季贝加尔湖及以南地区的土壤表层温度在年代际和年际尺度上均存在紧密联系:西西伯利亚到贝加尔湖北部地区土壤湿度异常偏高,通常对应贝加尔湖及南部地区夏季土壤表层温度偏高。西西伯利亚到贝加尔湖北部地区春、夏土壤湿度异常可以引起夏季大气环流异常,从而对东亚夏季中纬度陆面热力异常产生影响:春、夏土壤湿度偏高时,贝加尔湖及其南部地区上空位势高度为正异常,对应为反气旋性异常环流,云量减少,有利于东亚中纬度陆面增暖;反之,则对应为气旋性异常环流,不利于陆面增暖。     

东北亚冷夏的年代际变化

通过对1881～2000年东北亚夏季气温的分析,发现东北亚夏季气温有明显的年代际变化,时间尺度为80年左右和30年左右;120年来东北亚共发生27次冷夏(平均气温距平≤-0.5°C),其中6次为严重冷夏(平均气温距平≤-1.0°C).通过对海平面气压场、对流层中层500 hPa高度场及海温场的分析,研究了东北亚冷夏的环流机制以及与SST异常的关系,指出东北亚夏季气温的年代际变化与大尺度环流特征及海温的变化关系密切.     

夏季东亚大气环流的研究

夏季东亚大气环流的研究，一直是我国气象科学研究的重要课题之一。本文对东亚大气环流季节性转换、东亚大气环流的主要活动中心和青藏高原对东亚大气环流的作用等的研究进展，从观测事实、理论与模拟及其应用等方面进行了简单的评述。最后对今后夏季东亚大气环流研究的发展，提出了某些建议。     

高原地表过程中冻融过程在东亚夏季风中的作用

用茶卡站冻结日数与季风指数的相关简单说明高原冻融过程与东亚夏季风之间存在联系。作为个例,对沱沱河区域1998,1999年从冬到夏过渡季节的冻融过程与感、潜热变化及东亚夏季风建立之间的关系进行了初步分析。结果表明:从冬到夏的过渡季节中,青藏高原的冻融过程与高原加热存在着联系,土壤季节性冻融使得高原地表向大气的感、潜热输送随季节发生变化,青藏高原的加热作用对东亚夏季风的爆发时间和强度有重要影响。因此,高原地表过程中土壤冻融过程在东亚夏季风的爆发过程中扮演着重要角色。     

亚洲中高纬度地区春夏季节转换早晚与梅雨期中国东部降水异常的联系

6月初,亚洲中高纬地区的气温迅速增暖后趋于稳定,大气环流由冬季环流转变为夏季环流。根据1951~2017年间各年亚洲中高纬地区春夏季节转换（以下简称季节转换）的时间,基于NCEP再分析资料和中国地区的观测资料,研究了季节转换发生早晚对梅雨期中国地区降水及环流的影响。在季节转换偏早（晚）年的梅雨期,对流层中层（500 hPa）高度距平场从东北亚中高纬、中国东北和日本以南地区出现“+ ? +”（“? + ?”）的经向波状结构。在850 hPa距平风场上,也有相近的波状结构。当东北亚脊偏强（弱）时,东北地区为气旋式（反气旋式）环流距平,西太平洋副热带为反气旋式（气旋式）距平。环流异常导致东北地区降水异常偏多（少）,长江流域降水偏少（多）。本文还初步探讨了亚洲中高纬地区入夏时间的早晚如何影响梅雨期大气环流和中国东部降水异常的途径。在季节转换偏早（晚）年,东北亚高压脊建立较早（晚）,强度偏强（弱）,而且对应的东北亚脊异常往往可持续到梅雨期结束,从而有利于东亚沿岸 “+ ? +”（“? + ?”）经向波状环流及相应雨带的形成。     

Intermodel Diversity in the Zonal Location of the Climatological East Asian Westerly Jet Core in Summer and Association with Rainfall over East Asia in CMIP5 Models

The East Asian westerly jet(EAJ), an important midlatitude circulation of the East Asian summer monsoon system,plays a crucial role in affecting summer rainfall over East Asia. The multimodel ensemble of current coupled models can generally capture the intensity and location of the climatological summer EAJ. However, individual models still exhibit large discrepancies. This study investigates the intermodel diversity in the longitudinal location of the simulated summer EAJ climatology in the present-day climate and its implications for rainfall over East Asia based on 20 CMIP5 models. The results show that the zonal location of the simulated EAJ core is located over either the midlatitude Asian continent or the western North Pacific(WNP) in different models. The zonal shift of the EAJ core depicts a major intermodel diversity of the simulated EAJ climatology. The westward retreat of the EAJ core is related to a warmer mid–upper tropospheric temperature in the midlatitudes, with a southwest–northeast tilt extending from Southwest Asia to Northeast Asia and the northern North Pacific, induced partially by the simulated stronger rainfall climatology over South Asia. The zonal shift of the EAJ core has some implications for the summer rainfall climatology, with stronger rainfall over the East Asian continent and weaker rainfall over the subtropical WNP in relation to the westward-located EAJ core.     

Impacts of the leading modes of tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly on sub-seasonal evolution of the circulation and rainfall over East Asia during boreal spring and summer

The two leading modes of the interannual variability of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly are the Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) and the Indian Ocean dipole mode (IODM) from March to August. In this paper, the relationship between the TIO SST anomaly and the sub-seasonal evolution of the circulation and rainfall over East Asia during boreal spring and summer is investigated by using correlation analysis and composite analysis based on multi-source observation data from 1979 to 2013, together with numerical simulations from an atmospheric general circulation model. The results indicate that the impacts of the IOBM on the circulation and rainfall over East Asia vary remarkably from spring to summer. The anomalous anticyclone over the tropical Northwest Pacific induced by the warm IOBM is closely linked with the Pacific–Japan or East Asia–Pacific teleconnection pattern, which persists from March to August. In the upper troposphere over East Asia, the warm phase of the IOBM generates a significant anticyclonic response from March to May. In June and July, however, the circulation response is characterized by enhanced subtropical westerly flow. A distinct anomalous cyclone is found in August. Overall, the IOBM can exert significant influence on the western North Pacific subtropical high, the South Asian high, and the East Asian jet, which collectively modulate the precipitation anomaly over East Asia. In contrast, the effects of the IODM on the climate anomaly over East Asia are relatively weak in boreal spring and summer. Therefore, studying the impacts of the TIO SST anomaly on the climate anomaly in East Asia should take full account of the different sub-seasonal response during boreal spring and summer.     

Consistent responses of East Asian summer mean rainfall to global warming in CMIP5 simulations

East Asia summer rainfall is of great social–economic importance. Based on observations, reanalysis and simulations of 16 Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, the responses of East Asia summer precipitation, as well as some relevant features, to global warming are investigated. The CMIP5 historical simulation reasonably reproduces the climatology of summer rainfall, the associated circulation, the moisture and its transportation, and the mid-troposphere horizontal advection of temperature as well. Under global warming, the rainfall enhancement is robustly projected in the state-of-the-art models over North China, Northeast China, northern coast of Japan and the Kuroshio. As well, the total summer rainfall over East Asia is consistently increased in the models. For the consistent responses, the moisture budget analysis based on the simulations shows that two factors are responsible: one is increased moisture. As East Asia is a climatological ascent region in northern summer, increased moisture induced by global warming leads to more moisture transported upward and thus the rainfall rise. The other is enhanced evaporation, which may be caused by surface warming and provides more precipitable water to the atmosphere column. Furthermore, the results may provide some implications to the long-term variability of East Asia summer rainfall over the last several decades.     

NUMERICAL STUDY OF THE EFFECTS OF PERSISTENT WARMER SEASURFACE TEMPERATURE IN TROPICAL INDIAN OCEAN ONATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION IN THE EARLY SUMMERIN EAST ASIA IN 1991

By employing the CCM1（R15L12）long-range spectral model, study is undertaken of the effects of sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) for tropical Indian ocean on circulation transformation in the early summer in East Asia in 1991. The results indicate that warmer SSTA contributes to the increasing of the temperature over the Plateau in early summer, resulting in the intensification of tropical easterly jet on 100 hPa and northward shift of Northern Hemisphere subtropical westerly jet in May. It is obviously favorable for the subtropical high enhancement over western Pacific Ocean in May and subtropical westerly jet maintaining at 35～40 °N in June, making the Mei-Yu come earlier and stay over the Changjiang basin in 1991. Furthermore, warmer SSTA is also advantageous to averaged temperature rise in East Asia land region and Nanhai monsoon development. These roles are helpful in accelerating the seasonal transition for East Asia in early summer.     

1998年夏季东北亚阻塞高压异常的大尺度环流特征及成因初探

分析了1998年夏季东北阻塞高压异常及大尺度环流特征，研究了1979－1998年夏季东北阻塞高压年际变化，环流背景特征以及东北亚阻塞高压异常的太平洋海温异常的关系，认为夏季东北亚500hPa平均高度偏高（低），东亚地区“＋－＋”（“－＋－”）的距平波列，是典型的东北亚阻塞高压强盛（稀少）的环流型，太平洋海温的异常，激发东焉地区的遥相关波列，致使东北亚500hPa高度场异常，可能是东北亚阻塞主压异常的原因之一，在亚少中高续高度场平均偏高的环流背景下，乌拉尔册地区的阻塞高压对东北亚阻塞高压的发展和建立起到了促进作用，1998年乌拉尔山阻塞高频繁也是东北亚阻塞高压异常频繁的可能原因之一。     

热带海温异常对东南亚夏季风爆发的影响

通过季风指数Im定义了能表征东南亚地区降水实况的东南亚夏季风指数,根据东南亚夏季风指数测算出东南亚夏季风爆发的平均时间为5月7日.利用东南亚夏季风指数分析热带海温场及垂直速度场的变化后发现,在东南亚夏季风爆发的前期秋、冬季节,中东太平洋地区以及中西印度洋地区的冷海温有利于东南亚地区夏季风的提前爆发.当中东太平洋地区是冷(暖)海温时,对应着纬向的Walker环流及季风环流圈强(弱),东南亚地区的对流也强(弱),则东南亚地区夏季风爆发早(迟).     

青藏高原冬春季雪盖对东亚夏季大气环流影响的研究

通过分析青藏高原积雪的基本特征，指出高原冬春季雪盖在东亚夏季气候形成与异常中的重要作用，同时分别总结了高原冬春季积雪对东亚夏季大气环流影响的诊断研究和数值试验进展，提出了高原冬春季雪盖对气候影响的可能机制。     

影响东亚夏季风降水异常的前期海温信号

采用NCEP/NCAR大气再分析资料、HadISST海温数据以及中国东亚季风区的实测降水资料,探讨前期冬季海温与东亚夏季风之间的关系。研究表明,影响东亚夏季风异常的海温变化存在2个关键区,分别位于南印度洋中部和北太平洋东部,关键区的海温与东亚季风区的降水在长江中游有显著正相关,与东亚夏季风指数有显著负相关。基于此,定义了印-太海温指数。强海温指数年的南亚高压、索马里越赤道气流、西太平洋副高偏强,有利于东亚夏季风北进,中国大部降水偏多;弱海温指数年则相反。      

The physical effects of topography and heat sources on the formation and maintenance of the summer monsoon over Asia

The physical effects of topography and heat sources on the formation and maintenance of the summer mon-soon over Asia we discussed in this paper by using the transformed Eularian-mean equations and a quasigeostrophic 34-level spherical coordinate model.The computed results of the divergence of the E-P flux, the induced meridional circulation and the pertur-bation geostrophic wind speed induced by the forcing of topography and heat sources show that the diabatic heating effect over the Tibetan Plateau may play an important role for the formation and maintenance of the summer monsoon over Asia, which is much greater than the dynamical effect of topography.The computed results also show that, of the physical effects of topography and heat sources on the formation and maintenance of the summer monsoon over Asia, the effect of forced meridional circulation is larger than that of the divergence of E-P flux of the induced waves.     

东亚夏季风降水年代际变异模态及其与太平洋年代际振荡的关系

利用全球陆地月平均降水资料、英国气象局哈德莱中心的月平均海表温度距平(SSTA)资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析大气环流资料,探讨东亚夏季风降水年代际变率及其与太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)的联系。研究指出:东亚夏季风降水年代际变异模态以及PDO均在1976年前后呈现显著的年代际转折,并且东亚夏季风降水与PDO在年代际尺度上具有较好的相关关系。PDO能够在对流层低层激发出与年代际东亚夏季风环流较为相似的大气环流异常特征,表明东亚夏季风环流的年代际变化可能受大气外强迫因子PDO在对流层低层的外源强迫作用影响,最终导致东亚夏季风降水发生年代际变化。