极端天气指数在强对流天气中的应用及检验

数值预报特别是集合预报技术大大提高了对极端天气的预报能力,目前对于温度、风、降水等要素,欧洲中心基于集合预报产品计算的极端指数产品为其极端性提供了定量化依据。但目前尚没有应用于业务预报的强对流天气极端指数产品,本文统计了与强对流天气密切相关的物理量,并计算了其极端天气指数,统计了极端天气指数在不同强对流天气中的阈值分布。结果表明,极端天气指数与强对流天气有密切的关系,且不同类型的强对流天气极端指数的分布和阈值具有各自的特点。基于上述结果,利用极端指数和模式降水资料,使用支持向量机方法,建立了不同类型强对流天气的客观预报方法,为业务预报极端强对流天气提供客观支持产品。     

近50年来乌兰乌苏多种天气事件变化特征研究

利用乌兰乌苏镇1964～2012年的气象资料,选取逐年平均气温、极端最高气温、极端最低气温、大风、雷暴、沙尘暴、沙尘天气及大雾、轻雾天气出现的天数作为分析对象,运用3年移动平均法、回归分析法、非参数检验方法的Mann-Kendall趋势检验和突变检验法以及小波分析法,进行了多种天气事件的年纪变化趋势分析.结果表明：（1）大雾天气的发生日数呈增加趋势,沙尘天气、沙尘暴天气、轻雾天气、大风天气和雷暴天气的发生日数都呈减少趋势,其中大风天气发生日数减少趋势最为明显.（2）平均气温、年极端最高气温、年极端最低气温、大雾天气、轻雾天气、沙尘暴天气、雷暴天气和沙尘天气在研究时段都出现了突变,且平均气温、轻雾天气、沙尘天气和雷暴天气在突变之后不久都达到了极显著的上升或者下降变化趋势.（3）平均气温、年极端最低气温、年极端最高气温、大雾天气、雷暴天气和大风天气有明显的周期性,但是不同的气象要素周期性长短是不同的,沙尘、沙尘暴和轻雾天气则没有明显的周期性.     

中国极端天气气候研究——“地球系统与全球变化”重点专项项目简介及最新进展

全球变暖背景下,极端天气气候事件频发,并表现出群发性、持续性、复合性等特点,不可预测性增加;持续性强降水、极端低温、复合型极端高温干旱、群发性热浪和台风等极端天气气候事件对我国经济社会和可持续发展影响巨大。然而,上述极端天气气候事件的新特征、关键过程和机理尚不完全清楚,重大极端事件的预报预测水平亟待提升。文章首先简要介绍“地球系统与全球变化”重点专项项目“中国极端天气气候事件的形成机理及其预测和归因”的基本情况。项目拟在分析全球变化背景下对我国造成重大影响的极端天气气候事件新特征的基础上,深入研究多尺度海-陆-气耦合过程影响极端天气气候事件的机理,挖掘极端天气气候事件次季节-季节预测的前兆信号;发展动力与物理统计相结合的极端事件预测新方法,研制针对中国极端事件的新一代高分辨率数值预报与检测归因系统。文章重点总结了自2022年12月项目立项至今取得的最新研究成果和进展。     

定量评估极端天气影响农业总产值的方法

选取对极端天气敏感性和脆弱性较高的农业领域为研究对象,将极端天气因子和农业生产因子引入Cobb-Douglas生产函数,构建气候经济模型,定量分析了极端天气事件对浙江省农业总产值的影响。结果表明：极端天气因子与浙江省农业总产值存在长期均衡关系,对农业总产值有显著的负面影响。高温日数、低温日数、强降水日数每增加1%,浙江农业总产值分别减少0.072%、0.046%、0.076%;高温日数和强降水日数的短期波动对农业总产值也有显著的负面影响;不同区域的农业总产值受极端天气影响程度存在差异,浙江西北地区和西南地区相对东部沿海地区受极端天气影响更为严重。     

驻马店极端气温分析

利用驻马店10个站气象资料,分析了极端温度的时间变化特征、高温天气与6-8月降水量之间的关系和极端晴热高温、极端湿热高温天气形成的天气背景及影响因子,确定了高温出现的前期预报指标。     

天气和气候极端事件的变化及其与全球变暖的联系——纪念2002年世界气象日“减低对天气和气候极端事件的脆弱性”

2002年3月23日世界气象日的主题是“减低天气和气候极端事件的脆弱性”。针对这个主题,作者对以下四方面问题作了阐述：（1）天气与气候极端事件以及脆弱性的定义;（2）近百年来全球天气与气候极端事件的变化及其与全球气候变化的关系;（3）未来天气与气候极端事件及其影响的预测;（4）天气与气候极端事件的适应与减缓对策。由于篇幅有限,未介绍中国在这方面的研究。     

什么是极端天气气候事件

极端天气气候事件是指天气（气候）的状态严重偏离其平均态时所发生的天气（天候）事件,可以认为是异常或很少发生的事件,在统计意义上称为极端事件。     

极端降水特性分析研究进展

极端降水是极端天气气候变化的重要指标,研究其时空分布特征对于正确认识全球气候变暖背景下的极端天气气候过程具有重要意义。就近年来国内外极端降水的特征及其与大气、海洋异常的关系研究进行简要的回顾,最好提出了其存在的不足方面。     

IPCC AR6报告解读：极端天气气候事件变化

与IPCC第五次评估报告（AR5）相比,在第六次评估报告（AR6）评估中,观测的极端天气气候事件变化证据,特别是归因于人为影响的证据加强。人类活动造成的气候变化已影响到全球每个区域的许多极端天气气候事件。随着未来全球变暖进一步加剧,预估极端热事件、强降水、农业生态干旱的强度和频次以及强台风（飓风）比例等将增加,越罕见的极端天气气候事件,其发生频率的增长百分比越大。这些结论再次凸显了应对气候变化和极端天气气候事件的必要性和紧迫性。     

驻马店极端气温分析

利用驻马店10个站气象资料，分析了极端温度的时间变化特征、高温天气与6--8月降水量之间的关系和极端睛热高温、极端湿热高温天气形成的天气背景及影响因子，确定了高温出现的前期预报指标。     

Attribution matters: Revisiting the link between extreme weather experience and climate change mitigation responses

The literature suggests that extreme weather experiences have potential to increase climate change engagement by influencing the way people perceive the proximity and implications of climate change. Yet, limited attention has been directed at investigating how individual differences in the subjective interpretation of extreme weather events as indications of climate change moderate the link between extreme weather experiences and climate change attitudes. This article contends that subjective attribution of extreme weather events to climate change is a necessary condition for extreme weather experiences to be translated into climate change mitigation responses, and that subjective attribution of extreme weather to climate change is influenced by the psychological and social contexts in which individuals appraise their experiences with extreme weather. Using survey data gathered in the aftermath of severe flooding across the UK in winter 2013/2014, personal experience of this flooding event is shown to only directly predict perceived threat from climate change, and indirectly predict climate change mitigation responses, among individuals who subjectively attributed the floods to climate change. Additionally, subjective attribution of the floods to climate change is significantly predicted by pre-existing climate change belief, political affiliation and perceived normative cues. Attempts to harness extreme weather experiences as a route to engaging the public must be attentive to the heterogeneity of opinion on the attributability of extreme weather events to climate change.     

Experience is not enough: A dynamic explanation of the limited adaptation to extreme weather events in public organizations

This study advances theory articulating the micro-level processes behind public organization adaptation to extreme weather. It tackles a persistent puzzle about the limited adaptation to extreme weather among public organizations: why does adaptation remain deficit after public organizations have experienced repeated extreme weather and some catastrophic consequences? We develop a computational agent-based model that integrates extant theory and data from semi-structured interviews of U.S. public transit agency managers, and use the model to investigate how micro-level cognition and behavior interact with environmental constraints to facilitate or impede the diffusion of adaptation. We articulate in greater detail how experience with influential extreme weather events matters to adaptation, highlighting that such experience is insufficient for adaptation to occur. A key insight is that the potential benefits from both increased risk perception and additional financial resources stemming from disaster- or non-disaster-induced opportunities can be underutilized, absent effective coupling between heightened risk perception and availability of resources that creates windows for adaptation. Using this insight, we further identify managerial and policy interventions with maximum leverage to promote adaptation to extreme weather in public organizations. The experiments show that slowing risk perception decay and synchronizing opportunities with extreme weather occurrences can stimulate adaptation.     

诊断天气气候时间序列极值特征的一种新方法

将平稳过程的交叉理论用于天气气候极值分析,提出了一种诊断天气气候时间序列极值特征量的新方法,在正态假设下,推证出天气气候记录中,极值出现频数、持续时间和等待时间的估计公式,论证了极值出现频数与其频谱结构的对应关系及其相互推算方法.实例应用表明,其理论计算值与实测值相当一致,这种方法对于气候变化诊断与预测和天气预报具有很强的实用价值.     

Mapping the shadow of experience of extreme weather events

Climate change will increase the frequency and/or intensity of certain extreme weather events, and perceived experience with extreme weather may influence climate change beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors. However, the aspects of extreme events that influence whether or not people perceive that they have personally experienced them remain unclear. We investigate (1) the correspondence of reported experience of extreme weather events with documented events, and (2) how characteristics of different extreme events shape the geographic area within which people are likely to report they have experienced it—the event’s perceived “shadow of experience.” We overlay geocoded survey responses indicating personal experience with hurricanes, tornadoes, and drought—from a 2012 nationally representative survey (N?=?1,008) of U.S. residents—on maps of recorded event impacts. We find that reported experiences correspond well with recorded event impacts, particularly for hurricanes and tornadoes. Reported experiences were related to event type, proximity, magnitude and duration. The results suggest locations where disaster preparedness efforts and climate change education campaigns could be most effective after an extreme weather event.