时变参数法在滹沱河洪水预报中的应用

滹沱河多年干涸、下垫面变化大,并且自献县枢纽建成后,很少发生较大洪水,实测大水资料缺少,给预报带来很大困难。利用上下游相关法或者单一河道洪水演算已无法达到预报要求。对此,在滹沱河预报中提出了霍顿饱和下渗与马斯京根分段连续演算方法相结合的河道洪水演算方法来解决预报精度问题。当发生大洪水时,泛区滞洪,将作为水库调节来水,献县枢纽洪水预报同时还要进行调洪演算,以预报泛区水位及枢纽出流情况。洪水预报分析资料是基于96.8洪水的实测及考证水文资料。该方法利用当前水文数据对参数进行实时校正滚动预报,解决了沧州上游黄璧庄水库泄洪至滹沱河洪水预报的问题。     

问与答

问什么叫洪水风险图?如何编制? 答洪灾损失不仅与淹没范围有关,而且与洪水演进路线,到达时间,淹没水深及流速大小等有关。洪水风险图就是对可能发生的超标准洪水的上述过程特征进行预测,标示洪泛区各处受洪水灾害的危险程度。根据该图并结合泛区社会经济发展状况,可以做到:1.合理制定洪泛区的土地利用规划,避免在风险大的区域出现人口与资产的过度集中;2.合理制定防洪指     

美国国家天气局洪水预报分级检验系统简介

介绍了美国国家天气局洪水预报分级检验系统的主要内容，该系统将洪水视为一个事件或一组事件，根据历史水文资料的分析，将预报站点发生的洪水分为6个等级，即无洪水、小洪水、中等洪水、大洪水、接近历史最高记录洪水、超记录洪水。一次洪水在退水之前或许跨越数个等级。如果某次洪水事件没有预报正确，可以计算出其误差，这是一个事件误差，而不是水位或洪峰误差。对所获取的资料做简单的统计分析后，以图表表示，对洪水预报效果做出评价和检验。     

关于建立洪水等级划分模式的初步构思——以鄱阳湖为例

针对建立洪水等级划分模式的构思，提出了洪水背划分指标和洪水等级划分公式。建立了一个较为简单的洪水等级划分模式，试用它划分了鄱阳湖历年洪水等级，其结果较合理。     

梯级水库下游洪水情势的概率描述

一、引言经一个或多个水库调蓄的下泄洪水,较之天然洪水有很大的不同,无论是确定水库下游城市的防洪风险,还是规划下游水利水电工程,都需要正确描述水库下游的洪水情势。梯级水库下游某断面的洪水情势,不仅取决于上游水库的天然来水及水库的调度原则,还与上、下水库之间及下水库至研究断面间的区间洪水特性有关。对只有一个水库的防洪系统来说,《水利水电工程设计洪水计算规范》     

全新世古洪水研究进展

尽管古洪水的研究最多只有50年左右的历史,但是利用全新世古洪水研究来补充洪水频率计算的资料,对预测洪水发生的可能性和严重程度具有重要的意义,所以古洪水的研究发展比较迅速。本文从古洪水事件的判别、古洪水平流沉积物的特点、古洪水的水文计算等方面阐述了全新世古洪水的研究进展。古洪水研究虽然取得了很大进展,但是仍然存在以下问题:研究区域主要集中在长江、黄河流域的部分地区,所以研究区域需要进一步扩展;研究分辨率有待提高;洪水事件与气候变化的关系研究的较少;对洪水事件的成因关注的不多;对一个流域内古洪水序列的全面建立还存在困难。     

基于Web＆GIS的洪水预报技术概述

洪水预报技术涉及专业技术和实现技术两个方面,洪水预报实现技术的发展制约着洪水预报的整体水平.基于GIS及Web的洪水预报应用技术,代表了洪水预报技术发展的一个新的方向,主要体现在三个方面:构件化应用开发的洪水预报系统;建立分布式洪水预报模型;交互式洪水预报调度决策应用模式.技术关键在于洪水预报中间件和相应应用中间件标准,其次是规范构件化应用;三是推进应用级服务体系,支持行业应用的构件化软件开发.     

古洪水平流沉积与水位

古洪水研究的目的是通过古洪水信息的载体－古洪水平流沉积提供古水水位及流量，而如何确定古洪水沉积顶面高程与其洪峰水位的关系是河床演变学至今尚水解决的难题。经过长江，黄河，黄河和淮河古洪水研究之后，对此问题获得了新的认识， 水平流沉积物尖灭点高程与共洪峰水位之间一致的关系，给古洪水研究解决了一个关键问题。     

基于投影寻踪和粒子群优化算法的洪水分类研究

洪水分类实际上是洪水强度大小辨别的优化问题。洪水分类不仅影响着水库的实时调度，而且也影响着洪水灾害危险评估。对利用降水预报进行洪水资源利用的水库来说，洪水分类对水库实时调度规则的建立有着重要的作用。因此，洪水分类是一个重要的理论和实践问题。本文以长江三峡水库代表性水文站——宜昌站为研究对象．基于投影寻踪方法建立了洪水分类的优化模型，并利用粒子群优化算法对所建模型进行求解。结果表明了投影寻踪方法和粒子群优化算法在洪水分类研究中的有效性和合理性．     

淮河流域1931年7月大洪水简介

淮河流域的洪水主要由暴雨形成。自1855年以来淮河流域曾出现过1866、1916、1921、1931、1950、1954、1968、1975等年大洪水。1931年洪水类似于1954年洪水,是由连续一个月左右大面积暴雨形成的全流域性洪水。洪水量大而集中,历时比1954年还长,给淮河中下游广大平原区带来了毁灭性的灾害。据淮河流域水文气象资料分析及历史文献考证,在汛期6至9月中以7月份暴雨洪水为最大,遍及全流域,其中以淮干上中游、淮南山区、洪汝河沙颍河下     

Hydrologic inferences from ring widths of flood-damaged trees,Potomac River,Maryland

Year-to-year variability in the ring widths of trees on flood plains along two reaches of the Potomac River near Washington, D.C., seems in large part to be related to differences in flood-flow regimes. Trees directly exposed to high flood velocities are damaged more often than sheltered trees and thus exhibit more variable ring-width patterns. The ring-width variability of unsheltered trees on low levels of flood plains is greater than that of trees on high levels, indicating that variability values are positively correlated with flood frequency. Sheltered trees, however, have less variable ring-width patterns than those of unsheltered trees, and variability is not correlated with flood frequency. As a result, ring-width variations may be used to estimate the probability of flood damage along local channel reaches of a stream. Growth responses after hydrologic catastrophies in 1948 and 1972 indicate that rings of flood-plain trees can be used to document the occurrence and crest altitude of high-magnitude floods.     

Recent floods in Bangladesh: Possible causes and solutions

In recent years the frequency of abnormal floods in Bangladesh has increased substantially, causing serious damage to lives and property. The most crucial questions that need to be addressed are: what really causes the havoc-creating floods and is there any solution to the problem? The heavy monsoon downpour and synchronization of flood-peaks of the major rivers are generally considered to be the main causes of the floods. Some underlying factors also deserve serious consideration as possible contributors to the recent floods: change in the base level of the rivers due to local sea level rise and subsidence, inadequate sediment accumulation on flood plains, a possible increase in the watershed area due to seismic and neotectonic activities in the region, river bed aggradation due to siltation and damming of rivers, soil erosion due to unwise tilling practices, deforestation in the upstream region, and excessive development and population growth. Without regional cooperation among the co-riparian nations any major interbasin flood control activity is considered to be almost impossible. However, among other proposals in this paper, extensive annual dredging of the rivers, channels and creeks, and reoccupation of the abandoned channels in Bangladesh through re-excavations could still increase the water carrying capacity of the rivers. Land elevations could be increased if the dredged or excavated materials are dispersed on the flood plains, which would in turn reduce the severity of floods.     

Waterlogging and flood hazards vulnerability and risk assessment in Indo Gangetic plain

The recurrent flooding during monsoon and subsequent waterlogging in the northern Bihar plains and the magnitude of losses due to these hazards indicate the continuing vulnerability of the region to flood and waterlogging. Management of floods and waterlogging hazards in highly flood-prone regions of India, including Bihar state has been largely response oriented with little or no attention to mitigation and preparedness. This paper presents a method for spatial, Geographic Information Systems-based assessment of flood and waterlogging vulnerability and risk in northern Bihar plains. Multitemporal satellite data was used to evaluate the area statistics and dynamics of waterlogging over the period from 1975 to 2008. The flood proneness is evaluated at district level with reference to flood inundation during a period from 1998 to 2008. Census data were used to examine the socio-economic characteristics of the region through computation of population density, cultivators, agricultural labourers, sex ratio, children in age group 0–6 years and literates. The geohazard map derived by combining area prone to waterlogging and flood inundation was multiplied with socio-economic vulnerability map to derive the flood-waterlogging risk map of the region. The result shows that flood and water-logging pose highest risk to the central districts in the northern Bihar plains with 50.95% of the total area under high and very high risk.     

一维-二维耦合的防洪保护区洪水演进数学模型

针对防洪保护区溃堤及漫堤洪水演进数值模拟面临复杂计算域、河道-防洪保护区洪水耦合作用等问题,建立了基于侧向联解的一维-二维耦合水动力学模型.通过构造并求解Riemann问题实现一维-二维模型耦合,有效克服了基于堰流公式的传统方法难以处理模型间动量交换的缺点,也避免了堰流公式中流量系数选取的不确定性;提出了时间步长自适应匹配方法,解决了一维模型和二维模型时间步长不一致问题.算例研究表明,该模型可有效模拟河道-防洪保护区耦合系统中漫堤洪水和具有任意溃口形状的溃堤洪水演进过程,具有较好的推广应用价值.     

Hydrogeological characterization of aquifer in palla flood plain of Delhi using integrated approach

The Yamuna flood plains spread across the northern part of Indian subcontinent is home to millions of people. The ever-growing population in these plains make it difficult to sustain the demand of freshwater resources. However, the productive aquifers of flood plains could provide solution for these issues. In this context, it is necessary to understand the aquifer characteristics. Thus, the paper attempts to characterize the aquifer in Palla area of the flood plain using integrated approach. Besides, grain size analysis and site-litholog study, the nature of aquifer material was also ascertained from bulk mineralogy of the sediments using X-Ray Diffraction. The aquifer parameters were estimated with help of long duration pumping test data. Moreover, the effect of pumping on salinity variation and hydrochemical facies evolution was also examined. The sand dominant, unconfined aquifer was estimated to have horizontal hydraulic conductivity in the range of 25 m/day and vertical hydraulic conductivity of 6–7 m /day. While the specific yield of the aquifer was estimated in the range of 0.07–0.08. It is observed that under conducive active flood plain environment, the given sand mineralogy at the site does not allow salinity increase in groundwater even after more than a decade of groundwater pumping. In fact, over years, hydrochemical facies have evolved towards Bicarbonate type. These things put together make the active flood plain aquifer a sustainable groundwater resource.     

我国冲积平原区洪水事件重建研究进展及展望

冲积平原作为城市聚集和人类发展的重要区域,长期面临着巨大的洪水灾害风险,基于平原区丰富的沉积记录开展洪水事件重建研究有助于科学认识洪水历史及规律,具有重要的意义和价值.通过系统梳理国内外在冲积平原洪水重建研究中的最新进展,重点回顾了近年来我国长江中下游平原和华北平原相关代表性成果,分析了平原区洪水沉积主要特征和识别标志,归纳了特大洪水事件的典型沉积序列和主要沉积环境.最后,结合国内外研究热点和前沿,展望了未来我国冲积平原在洪水重建研究的巨大潜力,建议以沉积相和地层关系为基础,进一步扩展洪水重建研究的时空范围,探索从定性到定量获取不同规模洪水的水文信息,进而开展流域尺度的综合分析,深入了解洪水的驱动机制和影响因素.      

Suspended-sediment and fresh-water discharges in the Ob and Yenisey rivers, 1960–1988

Of the world's great rivers, the Ob and Yenisey rank among the largest suppliers of fresh water and among the smallest suppliers of suspended sediment to the coastal ocean. Sediment in the middle reaches of the rivers is mobilized from bordering terraces and exchanged between channels and flood plains. Sediment in the lower reaches of these great rivers is deposited and stored (permanently, on a millennial time scale) in flood plains. Sediment discharges, already small under natural conditions, are diminished further by large manmade reservoirs that trap significant proportions of the moving solids. The long winter freeze and sudden spring breakup impose a peakedness in seasonal water runoff and sediment discharge that contrasts markedly with that in rivers of the tropics and more temperate climates. Very little sediment from the Ob and Yenisey rivers is being transported to the open waters of the Arctic Ocean under present conditions.     

How Bedrock‐Controlled Channel Migration Can Structure Selective Preservation of Archaeological Sites: Implications for Modeling Paleoindian Settlement

Although Paleoindian sites in Indiana, USA, are commonly located on late Wisconsin (Last Glacial Maximum) outwash terraces, drainage basin development since deglaciation often obscures the visibility of such sites on flood plains by either burying them under alluvium or destroying them through erosion. Significant clusters of Paleoindian and Early Archaic sites, however, have been identified proximal to the modern White River channel in central Indiana on what is mapped as “floodplain.” These site cluster locations are patterned. They typically occur within bedrock‐controlled river reaches but are rare along unconfined meandering reaches. Subsurface reconnaissance and chronology indicate that despite the fact that they often flood, portions of the so‐called flood plains within bedrock‐confined reaches are actually terraces constructed of late Wisconsin outwash with minimal overbank sedimentation. Terrace preservation in these settings is a result of bedrock structure that protects older sediments from lateral erosion and differentially preserves archaeological sites near the modern channel in bedrock‐controlled reaches. Comparisons of archaeological sites within bedrock‐controlled segments of the White River to those in unconfined meandering segments suggests that significant numbers of Paleoindian and Early Archaic sites may be missing from river settings across the midcontinent. These findings demonstrate that bedrock channel controls are important to recognize when assessing prehistoric settlement distributions.     

华北平原冲积物孢粉沉积相研究

华北平原孢粉沉积相研究表明，洪积扇和三角洲平原区沉积的花粉较多。花粉沉积浓度多在3000粒/g以上。冲积平原区沉积下来的花粉较少，花粉浓度多在1000粒/g以下。冲积物的花粉浓度可以作为划分不同地貌单元的指标。不同的沉积相存在着不同的孢粉组合。主流相一般沉积的花粉粒很少或不合花粉，花粉植物类型也较少。漫滩、心滩沉积的花粉较多，花粉植物类型也较丰富。边滩沉积的花粉较少，花粉浓度也低。自然堤和泛滥相以含有较多的松、卷柏孢子和当地花粉植物为特征。这些特征可以作为识别沉积相的指标。     

A coupled high-resolution hydrodynamic and cellular automata-based evacuation route planning model for pedestrians in flooding scenarios

Flooding is now becoming one of the most frequent and widely distributed natural hazards, with significant losses to human lives and property around the world. Evacuation of pedestrians during flooding events is a crucial factor in flood risk management, in addition to saving people’s lives and increasing time for rescue. The key objective of this work is to propose a shortest evacuation path planning algorithm by considering the evacuable areas and human instability during floods. A shortest route optimization algorithm based on cellular automata is established while using diagonal distance calculation methods in heuristic search algorithms. The Morpeth flood event that occurred in 2008 in the UK is used as a case study, and a highly accurate and efficient 2D hydrodynamic model is adopted to discuss the flood characteristics in flood plains. Two flood hazard assessment approaches [i.e., empirical and mechanics-based and experimental calibrated (M&E)] are chosen to study human instability. A comprehensive analysis shows that extreme events are better identified with mechanics-based and experimental calibration methods than with an empirical method. The result of M&E is used as the initial condition for the Morpeth evacuation scenario. Evacuation path planning in Morpeth shows that this algorithm can realize shortest route planning with multiple starting points and ending points at the microscale. These findings are of significance for flood risk management and emergency evacuation research.