可持续发展评估指标、方法及应用研究

可持续发展评估指标及方法研究是可持续发展定量评估研究的基础,是实施可持续发展管理的依据,是生态经济学与可持续发展研究的前沿领域和热点问题之一. 在概括介绍可持续发展评估的工具--指标/指数的概念和功能、国际上代表性可持续发展研究机构指标选取的原则的基础上,全面分析归纳了可持续发展指标(体系)的类型及其框架模式. 详细介绍了联合国可持续发展委员会(UNCSD)、经济合作与发展组织(OECD)、世界保护同盟(IUCN)、世界银行等国际上代表性机构的可持续发展系统性指标体系的最新研究进展,并分析了这些系统性指标体系的优缺点. 深入分析了国际上典型的社会发展类、经济发展类、生态环境类可持续发展指标(指数)的研究、开发与实际评估应用的情况. 最后,总结了当前可持续发展指标(体系)研究的特点与趋势.     

“可持续社会指数”的研究综述与展望

正确评价和监测区域可持续发展水平,是实现2030年可持续发展目标的关键参考.随着观测手段和计算机技术的蓬勃发展,以指标观测和指数表达为基础的“指标时代”的到来为研究区域可持续发展水平提供了一个思路.“可持续社会指数”是全要素的综合评价,可以综合衡量国家尺度的可持续发展程度,并长期监测.从理论研究、指标框架和方法论的角度详细介绍了“可持续社会指数”,从对“可持续社会指数”的指标选取和指数计算方面的局限和改进两个方面,对其相关研究进行综合梳理.最后,提出了未来可能应用的研究方向.     

甘肃生态经济系统的能值分析及其可持续性评估

比较生态足迹指数、环境可持续性指数（ESI）、自然资本指数（NCI）等作为衡量生态经济系统可持续性指标的不足后,选择能值分析及其指标作为定量评价区域可持续发展状态的方法和指标。通过对甘肃1994—2004年的净能值产出率（NEYR）、能值投入率（RIR）、环境负载率（ELR）和可持续发展能值指数（ESI）等7项指标的计算及趋势分析,并与其他国家和地区比较得出：甘肃经济还处于较低水平,开放程度依然有限,能值消费和利用结构也是低层次的,近年工业化步伐虽然加快,但要实现甘肃的可持续发展,仍需重视经济发展的作用,通过进口低能值、高能量的产品而输出高能值的产品和服务,达到自组织最优化状态（能源利用高效率）和系统对外最大功（强势竞争力）;甘肃可持续发展指数（ESI）的波动下降与甘肃经济的快速增长不无关系。重视经济增长和控制其对环境系统的压力,保持可持续发展指数的平缓降低尤为重要。     

陕南秦巴山区地质-生态环境评价与可持续发展

秦巴山区是我国人文、地理、气候等南北衔接过渡区 ,蕴藏着丰富的自然资源。也是环境地质灾害的多发区 ,是长江防护林体系重点整治区。本文采用遥感影像解译和野外调查的方法 ,以生态景观单元为评价客体 ,以地质 -生态环境质量为综合评价指标 ,建立多维评价信息空间 ,通过综合评价地质 -生态环境自然状态 ,对本区地质 -生态环境资源现状和危及生态环境的各项因素进行了划分与探讨 ,提出了可持续发展建议。     

水资源资产价格模糊数学综合评价指标体系构建——以黑河中游张掖市为例

针对水资源本身的模糊性和不确定性,基于模糊数学综合评价模型,从水量、水质、人口、社会经济和生态环境5个方面选取18个评价指标,结合AHP法与熵权法确定指标权重,对张掖市2010-2014年的水资源价格进行动态评价,水价计算模糊数学模型由水资源价值评价和水资源价格计算两部分组成.结果表明：采用水资源价值模糊综合指数对水资源价值进行测算,5 a间张掖市水资源模糊综合指数介于水资源价值指数的“中等”与“偏低”之间,说明张掖市水资源价值属于中等偏低;在2010-2014年5 a间水资源价格呈明显上升趋势,核算期初的2010年为2.12元·m^-3,证实了张掖市目前水资源价格偏低,水资源资产价格存在较大的上升空间,而核算期末的2014年最高达4.96元·m^-3.基于熵权与AHP相结合确定权重的水资源价格模糊数学综合评价模型,评价结果更客观合理,为下一步水资产负债表编制中水资产与负债价值核算提供数据支持.     

山东省地质环境质量评价研究

选取综合指数法为主要研究方法,在充分分析和借鉴前人研究经验的基础上,建立了适合山东省地质环境状况的评价指标体系,并对山东省各地市目前的地质环境质量进行了总体评价。研究中选取区域地质条件、地质灾害、人类活动和资源4个指标,各指标下又划分了若干子指标,构成了山东省地质环境质量评价的三级指标体系;然后运用层次分析法确定各指标的权重,并对相关数据进行计算,得出山东省各地市的地质环境质量的综合指数;最后根据各地市的综合指数得分将山东省地质环境质量划分为3类：即地质环境条件相对较好的鲁西鲁北地区、地质环境质量居中的胶东半岛地区和地质环境质量较差的鲁中山区。     

可持续发展战略与中国的经济发展

可持续发展战略是国际社会为了保证人类社会正常发展于７０年代提出来的世界经济、社会发展的总战略。可持续发展的基本含义是保持人类社会的持续进步而不损害其后代的发展。中国作为发展中国家正面临着由计划经济向社会主义市场经济过渡,社会主义市场经济既能带来社会经济的高速发展,同时也能给本以恶化的人口、资源、环境带来难以想向的破坏。即由于人口的增长高于经济的增长抵消了经济增长的成果;由于科技水平限制,对资源能源     

试谈如何丰富国家宏观经济核算指标

GDP是国内生产总值的英文缩写,作为反映经济趋势最重要的指标,GDP核算为我国的经济发展做出了重要的贡献,但GDP本身也有缺陷,如侧重于对经济增量的反映,而不能反映经济质量的好坏等。当前,对于GDP及其衍生指标的增加常见诸笔端。经济持续增长并不一定意味着人民生活满意度的增加,中国许多经济学家感到虽然GDP指标为我国经济发展做出了重要而积极贡献,但是没有涵盖一些重要因素,不能全面地反映一个国家的经济活动,于是纷纷寻找一些新的宏观经济指标来作为补充。笔者通过对衡量发展状况新指标的考查,感受到了这些经济学家新的发展理念,认为充分借鉴其合理部分,特别是那些强化资源节约、环境保护等可持续发展指标等,对我们加强资源和环境管理具有重要意义。     

综合指数法和模糊综合法在地下水质量评价中的对比——以遵义市为例

综合指数法和模糊综合评价法在地下水质量评价中被广泛应用。岩溶地区地下水环境脆弱,潜在污染来源复杂。为了更好地了解综合指数法和模糊综合法在岩溶地下水评价中的应用效果,本文以贵州省遵义市为例,利用这两种方法分别对该市具有代表性的9个地下水点水质进行评价和对比分析。结果显示:遵义市浅层地下水水质总体较好,Ⅲ类及Ⅲ类以上水占33 %,但个别区域地下水水质很差,主要为NO2-、NH4+、Mn、Na+、Cl-、SO42-、溶解性总固体、总硬度(CaCO3)和Se等超标;两种方法评价结果一致的共有6个水点,均属Ⅱ类水质,结果不一致的3个水点,在综合指数法中全为Ⅳ类水,而在模糊综合评价中则是Ⅲ类水1个,Ⅴ类水两个。出现差异的主要原因是综合指数法在综合分值计算中过于强调单项指标最大值的作用和未考虑参评指标的权重,而模糊综合法则很好地克服了这些不足,精细地刻画出指标值对水质分级界限的接近程度并量化了所有指标对地下水水质的影响权重。可见,地下水水质评价中,模糊综合法要明显优于综合指数法。      

区域水资源可持续利用的综合评价方法

水资源可持续利用指标体系及评价方法是水资源可持续利用研究的核心问题之一。以复合系统理论为基础,将水资源、社会经济和环境组成的复合系统定义为水资源可持续利用系统(RSWRS系统)。应用Bossel可持续发展基本定向指标框架,建立了水资源可持续利用指标评价体系。应用系统综合评价法,权重采用基于Bossel评分标准,以参考状态的离差平方和最大法计算,建立了以RSWRS系统发展综合指数和发展态势度量模型。以陕西省为例,进行了水资源可持续利用的综合定量评价。     

人地系统可持续发展评价体系与方法研究

提出了人地系统可持续发展的评价体系和评价方法，评价体系的建立应遵循空间跨度和时间跨度相结合，简洁和区域分类的原则。人地系统的可持续性由社会经济的发展水平、资源环境的数量、质量状态及它们的协调度所决定。深圳和东莞人地系统可持续发展评价结果表明，深圳可持续性从１９８０年至１９９０年逐渐增强，但１９９１年开始下降，东莞可持续性从１９８０年以后逐渐增强；目前两市处于弱可持续阶段。     

A concept of forming a structure of ecological indicators and indexes for regions sustainable development

 A complex method for assessing the ecological state of groundwater by using indicators and indexes of underground hydrosphere sustainable development, and of characterizing its quality, is given for an oil field. The concept of forming indicators and indexes of sustainable development has been elaborated for this purpose. When forming a structure of environment indicators, the developments of the European Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in this sphere were considered. New indicators are given and a structure of indexes quantitatively characterizing them is worked out. Indexes can be simple, complex, muldidisciplinary and inter-multidisciplinary by their structure. By their essence indexes are subdivided into five classes: indexes of quality, damage, interaction, hydrogeochemical and dynamic ones. The ecological state of groundwater is assessed by the following categories of sustainability: sustainable, slightly unsustainable, medium unsustainable, unsustainable, highly unsustainable, catastrophically unsustainable. Received: 23 November 1998 · Accepted: 14 September 1999     

Sustainability indicators: geology meets economy

 Suggestions for defining and measuring sustainable development can broadly be placed in two categories: weak and strong sustainability. The concept of weak sustainability assumes that manufactured and natural capital are close substitutes. This means that the costs of environmental deterioration (e.g. groundwater damage) can be compensated by benefits from manufactured capital (e.g. income). Thus, environmental damage is valued in monetary units. The concept of strong sustainability denies the degree of substitution that weak sustainability assumes, at least for some critical elements of natural capital. This paper endorses the use of strong sustainability indicators, especially for critical loads and critical levels. These have to be pointed out by environmental scientists and/or geologists. Nevertheless, the costs and benefits of avoiding critical impacts have to be taken into consideration. Hence, a combination of strong and weak sustainability indicators is suggested. Received: 2 April 1996 · Accepted: 14 October 1996     

V.I. Vernadsky and the noosphere concept: Russian understandings of society-nature interaction

Recent Russian legislative and policy documentation concerning national progress towards sustainable development has suggested that the attainment of such a state would represent the first stage in the development of the noosphere as outlined by the Russian scientist Vladimir Ivanovich Vernadsky (1863-1945). This paper explores Vernadsky’s model of evolutionary change through a focus on his work on the biosphere and noosphere in an attempt to further understanding of the way in which Russia is approaching the concept of sustainable development in the contemporary period. It is argued that the official Russian interpretation of the noosphere idea tends to obscure the evolutionary and materialist foundations of Vernadsky’s biosphere-noosphere conceptualisation. At the same time, the concluding section of the paper suggests that the scope of Vernadsky’s work can be used to stimulate the search for a more coherent approach to work in areas of sustainable development and sustainability across the span of the social and physical sciences.     

What is social sustainability? A clarification of concepts

Though the concept of sustainable development originally included a clear social mandate, for two decades this human dimension has been neglected amidst abbreviated references to sustainability that have focused on bio-physical environmental issues, or been subsumed within a discourse that conflated ‘development’ and ‘economic growth’. The widespread failure of this approach to generate meaningful change has led to renewed interest in the concept of ‘social sustainability’ and aspects thereof. A review of the literature suggests, however, that it is a concept in chaos, and we argue that this severely compromises its importance and utility. The purpose of this paper is to examine this diverse literature so as to clarify what might be meant by the term social sustainability and highlight different ways in which it contributes to sustainable development more generally. We present a threefold schema comprising: (a) ‘development sustainability’ addressing basic needs, the creation of social capital, justice and so on; (b) ‘bridge sustainability’ concerning changes in behaviour so as to achieve bio-physical environmental goals and; (c) ‘maintenance sustainability’ referring to the preservation - or what can be sustained - of socio-cultural characteristics in the face of change, and the ways in which people actively embrace or resist those changes. We use this tripartite of social sustainabilities to explore ways in which contradictions and complements between them impede or promote sustainable development, and draw upon housing in urban areas as a means of explicating these ideas.     

土地利用变化对水文系统的影响研究

以秦淮河流域为研究区域，利用现代遥感、地理信息系统等多种数字技术，获取流域空间分布的下垫面信息和中间状态信息，细致地刻画了流域内的水文过程，建立了研究区域数字水文模型。利用所建立的数字水文模型，对定义的土地利用变化情景进行了模拟。模拟结果表明，模型可以定性和定量地反映各种土地利用变化对水资源系统尤其是对水量平衡和防洪情势的影响程度。     

Substitution and scalar politics: negotiating environmental compensation in Cardiff Bay

One of the most contested dimensions of sustainable development is the issue of substitutability--the extent to which environmental qualities can be substituted, either for human-made assets, or for some equivalent environmental function. The main argument of this paper is that dominant economic discourses of sustainability neglect long-standing geographical concerns with scale, embeddedness and abstraction that are inevitably embroiled in the practical negotiation of substitutability. In particular, it seeks to demonstrate how relations of ecological and political scale frame the ‘decision space’ within which debates about substitution take place. These arguments are developed by analysing conflicts over the development of an amenity barrage across the Taff-Ely estuary in Cardiff, South Wales, and the provision of new wetlands to compensate for the resulting loss of wildlife habitat. This case shows that the scale at which environmental ‘assets’ are constructed--whether local, national or global--can reveal or obscure distributive effects incurred in maintaining environmental capital through compensatory measures. It also demonstrates how the re-scaling of governance arrangements (in this case to the European Commission) can empower the delivery of environmental management measures but simultaneously re-structures the objects of sustainability, rendering habitats and wildlife populations as disembedded symbols.     

社会资本在可持续发展中的作用

可持续发展指既满足当代人的发展需求又不损害、不掠夺后代发展需求能力的发展。它要求人类社会经济系统在地球生态系统承载能力下运作;要求社会发展不能单纯以经济增长为目的,而是要在保护生态环境基础上提高人类福利。社会资本概念为可持续发展提供了一个有用的工具。它不但使人类意识到可持续发展的内涵,而且运用社会资本可以限制自然资本开采、并减缓其对环境的破坏,提高制造资本利用效率,充分利用人力资本,从而推动可持续发展进程。介绍社会资本概念的基础上,从促进经济发展、自然资源可持续利用管理、环境保护以及缓解贫困等方面,阐述了社会资本促进可持续发展的理论机制。     

Sustainable transport indicators: Definition and integration

In this paper, a different interpretation of sustainable transportation, is introduced, in which sustainability with respect to transportation sector for the selected countries is evaluated. This interpretation characterizes “sustainable development” through “harmonic development”. It means sustainable development with special focus on transportation can be measured by the degree of conformity between environment, economy, and social aspects on one hand, and transportation on the other hand. The best indicator to perform such a measurement is elasticity. The database used for the study encompasses a series of national indicators for each country Seventy nine countries were initially selected for detailed analysis for the period of 1980–1995. The data have been extracted from centralized information sources of international agencies. The key dimensions of sustainable development i.e. social, environmental, and economic characteristics are used. Firstly, a set of sustainable transportation indicators is introduced. These indicators, which in fact are elasticities, show the relative change of non-transportation variables with respect to transportation ones. Second composite indices of three non-transportation groups with respect to four transportation modes are calculated. The composite indices are then aggregated by the Concordance Analysis Technique to achieve comprehensive transportation sustainability indices of countries, and according to these values, the countries are compared, ranked, and classified. Mathematical and statistical analyses of the database support the study quantitatively. The results for the selected indicators and countries show that from sustainable transportation point of view and based on the above-mentioned interpretation of sustainable development, United States is in the ranked first, and Sierra Leon is last among the subset of 79 countries with non-missing data. The results of the study depict an overall scheme for comparative assessment of transportation sustainability of the countries.