Numerical runout simulation of debris avalanches in the Faroe Islands, North Atlantic Ocean

The Faroe Islands in the North Atlantic Ocean are susceptible to flow-type landslides in coarse-grained highly organic colluvium. Following several hazardous debris avalanche events, research work has been initiated to quantify landslide risk. A central task in this work is to predict landslide runout behavior. From numerical simulation of four debris avalanches, this study provides a first screening of which rheology and appertaining input parameters best predict runout behavior of debris avalanches in the Faroe Islands. Three rheologies (frictional, Voellmy, and Bingham) are selected and used for individual back analysis of the events in the numerical models BING and DAN3D. A best fit rheology is selected from comparing predicted and observed landslide runout behavior. General back analysis to identify the optimal input parameters for the chosen rheology is performed by cross validation, where each debris avalanche is modeled with input parameters from the three other events. Optimal input parameters are found from the model run producing the most accurate runout length and velocity. The Bingham is selected as the best fit rheology, a result differing from similar studies of coarse-grained landslides. A reason for why particularly the frictional rheology proves unsuitable is its tendency to produce too long runout lengths of the low-weight runout material, a result showing important limitations for using the frictional rheology in DAN3D. Optimal Bingham input parameters are τ _y ?=?980 Pa and μ _b ?=?117 Pa/s. However, future studies performed in 2D models are needed for precise parameterization before results can be used for landslide risk assessment.     

Comparison of numerical models of two debris flows in the Cortina d’ Ampezzo area,Dolomites, Italy

The accurate prediction of runout distances, velocities and the knowledge of flow rheology can reduce the casualties and property damage produced by debris flows, providing a means to delineate hazard areas, to estimate hazard intensities for input into risk studies and to provide parameters for the design of protective measures. The application of most of models that describe the propagation and deposition of debris flow requires detailed topography, rheological and hydrological data that are not always available for the debris-flow hazard delineation and estimation. In the Cortina d’Ampezzo area, Eastern Dolomites, Italy, most of the slope instabilities are represented by debris flows; 325 debris-flow prone watersheds have been mapped in the geomorphological hazard map of this area. We compared the results of simulations of two well-documented debris flows in the Cortina d’Ampezzo area, carried on with two different single-phase, non-Newtonian models, the one-dimensional DAN-W and the two-dimensional FLO-2D, to test the possibility to simulate the dynamic behaviour of a debris flow with a model using a limited range of input parameters. FLO-2D model creates a more accurate representation of the hazard area in terms of flooded area, but the results in terms of runout distances and deposits thickness are similar to DAN-W results. Using DAN-W, the most appropriate rheology to describe the debris-flow behaviour is the Voellmy model. When detailed topographical, rheological and hydrological data are not available, DAN-W, which requires less detailed data, is a valuable tool to predict debris-flow hazard. Parameters obtained through back-analysis with both models can be applied to predict hazard in other areas characterized by similar geology, morphology and climate.     

Linking rainfall-induced landslides with predictions of debris flow runout distances

Rapid debris flows are among the most destructive natural hazards in steep mountainous terrains. Prediction of their path and impact hinges on knowledge of initiation location and the size and constitution of the released mass. To better link mass release initiation with debris flow paths and runout lengths, we propose to capitalize on a newly developed model for rainfall-induced landslide initiation (“Catchment-scale Hydro-mechanical Landslide Triggering” CHLT model, von Ruette et al. 2013) and couple it with simple estimates of debris flow runout distances and pathways. Landslide locations and volumes provided by the CHLT model are used as inputs to simulate debris flow runout distances with two empirical- and two physically-based models. The debris flow runout models were calibrated using two landslide inventories in the Swiss Alps obtained following a large rainfall event in 2005. We first fitted and tested the models for the “Prättigau” inventory, where detailed information on runout path was available, and then applied the models to landslides inventoried from a different catchment (“Napf”). The predicted debris flow runout distances (emanating from CHLT simulated landslide positions) were well in the range of observed values for the physically-based approaches. The empirical approaches tend to overestimate runout distances relative to observations. These preliminary results demonstrate the added value of linking shallow landslide triggering models with predictions of debris flow runout pathways for a range of soil states and triggering events, thus providing a more complete hazard assessment picture for debris flow exposure at the catchment scale.     

Evaluation of approaches to calculate debris-flow parameters for hazard assessment

Many different runout prediction methods can be applied to estimate the mobility of future debris flows during hazard assessment. The present article reviews the empirical, analytical, simple flow routing and numerical techniques. All these techniques were applied to back-calculate a debris flow, which occurred in 1982 at La Guingueta catchment, in the Eastern Pyrenees. A sensitivity analysis of input parameters was carried out, while special attention was paid to the influence of rheological parameters. We used the Voellmy fluid rheology for our analytical and numerical modelling, since this flow resistance law coincided best with field observations. The simulation results indicated that the “basal” friction coefficients rather affect the runout distance, while the “turbulence” terms mainly influence flow velocity. A comparison of the velocity computed on the fan showed that the analytical model calculated values similar to the numerical ones. The values of our rheological parameters calibrated at La Guingueta agree with data back-calculated for other debris flows. Empirical relationships represent another method to estimate total runout distance. The results confirmed that they contain an important uncertainty and they are strictly valid only for the conditions, which were the basis for their development. With regards to the simple flow routing algorithm, this methods could satisfactorily simulate the total area affected by the 1982 debris flow, but it was not able to directly calculate total runout distance and velocity. Finally, a suggestion on how different runout prediction methods can be applied to generate debris-flow hazard maps is presented. Taking into account the definition of hazard and intensity, the best choice would be to divide the resulting hazard maps into two types: “final hazard maps” and “preliminary hazard maps”. Only the use of numerical models provided final hazard maps, because they could incorporate different event magnitudes and they supplied output-values for intensity calculation. In contrast, empirical relationships and flow routing algorithms, or a combination of both, could be applied to create preliminary hazard maps. The present study only focussed on runout prediction methods. Other necessary tasks to complete the hazard assessment can be looked up in the “Guidelines for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning” included in this Special Issue.     

Anomalous Alpine fans: from the genesis to the present hazard

The present paper aims at characterising Alpine anomalous basin-fan systems, in order to develop a method for hazard assessment for such fans. The review of previous studies revealed that anomalous basin-fan systems are often associated with deep-seated slope failure and present-day hazard is associated to debris flow occurrence. Taking into account these peculiarities, a modelling approach to assess the present day hazard in anomalous fans has been developed and applied to the Sernio fan (Valtellina, northern Italy). Debris flow inundation areas have been simulated by means of a numerical model (RApid Mass MovementS (RAMMS) debris flow), which includes a routine for the sediment entrainment. The range of the model parameters was defined based on previous studies, enabling a sensitivity analysis on the debris flow runout, as well as the flow height and velocity. Numerical results point out the paramount importance of entrainment phenomena on debris flow dynamic in anomalous systems, especially with reference to the bulking factor and debris yield rate that reach very high values, typical of basins with unlimited solid supply.     

四川泸定MS6.8级地震区湾东河流域泥石流活动性预测

2022年9月5日四川泸定县发生M_S 6.8级地震, 地震诱发大量同震崩滑体, 并导致湾东河断流。基于现场调查、影像解译和区域地质资料分析, 采用空间统计和水文计算的方法, 对湾东河流域同震崩滑体分布特征和潜在泥石流危险性进行了研究。结果表明: 湾东河流域内同震崩滑体主要分布在地震烈度Ⅸ度区, 规模以中小型为主, 主要沿沟道两侧展布, 尤其是单薄山脊两侧临空面发育密度较大, 距断层距离和坡度对其分布具有明显的控灾效应; 未来湾东河流域暴发溃决型泥石流的冲出量可能为同等触发条件下震前泥石流的约两倍。依此提出了加强流域内溃决型泥石流风险防范, 尽快通过综合监测预警获取泥石流发生的临界雨量值, 在泥石流防治工程设计中应充分考虑泥石流规模放大系数等防灾减灾建议, 为泸定地震后泥石流灾害防灾减灾提供科学参考。      

Characteristics and numerical runout modeling of the heavy rainfall-induced catastrophic landslide–debris flow at Sanxicun,Dujiangyan, China,following the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake

The 2008 Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake triggered a large number of extensive landslides. It also affected geologic properties of the mountains such that large-scale landslides followed the earthquake, resulting in the formation of a disaster chain. On 10 July 2013, a catastrophic landslide–debris flow suddenly occurred in the Dujiangyan area of Sichuan Province in southeast China. This caused the deaths of 166 people and the burying or damage of 11 buildings along the runout path. The landslide involved the failure of ≈1.47 million m³, and the displaced material from the source area was ≈0.3 million m³. This landslide displayed shear failure at a high level under the effects of a rainstorm, which impacted and scraped an accumulated layer underneath and a heavily weathered rock layer during the release of potential and kinetic energies. The landslide body entrained a large volume of surface residual diluvial soil, and then moved downstream along a gully to produce a debris flow disaster. This was determined to be a typical landslide–debris flow disaster type. The runout of displaced material had a horizontal extent of 1200 m and a vertical extent of 400 m. This was equivalent to the angle of reach (fahrböschung angle) of 19° and covered an area of 0.2 km². The background and motion of the landslide are described in this study. On the basis of the above analysis, dynamic simulation software (DAN3D) and rheological models were used to simulate the runout behavior of the displaced landslide materials in order to provide information for the hazard zonation of similar types of potential landslide–debris flows in southeast China following the Wenchuan earthquake. The simulation results of the Sanxicun landslide revealed that the frictional model had the best performance for the source area, while the Voellmy model was most suitable for the scraping and accumulation areas. The simulations estimated that the motion could last for ≈70 s, with a maximum speed of 47.7 m/s.     

Hazard assessment and runout analysis for an unstable rock slope above an industrial site in the Riviera valley, Switzerland

This paper presents a detailed field investigation and hazard assessment for an unstable rock slope above an industrial site in the Riviera valley in the Canton of Ticino in southern Switzerland. An integrated framework was used to counter issues of geological complexity and uncertainty, linking geological mapping and numerical modeling to develop an understanding of the acting instability mechanism to 2-D and 3-D dynamic runout simulations to predict the travel path and reach in the event of a large volume rockslide. The results from the numerical stability analysis provided a means to constrain failure volume estimates, whereas a series of calibration simulations were used to constrain the input parameters required by the rheological model used for the runout analysis. Results from this assessment suggest that current protection measures in place may not be sufficient, helping local authorities to define hazard zones and aid further development plans for the region.     

Lessons from Ontake-san: A comparative analysis of debris avalanche dynamics

Dynamic aspects of the long runout Ontake-san debris avalanche are evaluated by a comparison of several models. An unsteady numerical model assumes two-dimensional flow of an incompressible biviscous or Newtonian fluid, represented as a continuum with a free surface. Internal deformation of the flowing mass is considered, as well as boundary resistances. Thus flow thinning and deposit shape as well as flow kinematics may be modeled. Parameters are adjusted to match observed runout, with additional constraints on velocity and emplacement time. With abundant constraints for Ontake-san, from careful field investigations by Japanese research teams, our analysis indicates that a substantial decrease in flow resistance occurred as a function of displacement. Constant-property models that match runout tend to overestimate the peak velocities and to underestimate the emplacement times. A staged increase in mobility in both constant volume and variable volume models leads to results consistent with field data. Runout in a channel overflow area was also modeled. Qualitatively similar results have been obtained by other researchers using simple sliding block models with empirical parameters, a slide block model with rational parameter selection, a modified flood simulation, and a multi-element frictional slide model. The relative merits of these models are compared.

The field mechanisms associated with this mobility increase with displacement are poorly understood, but the question is now identified as a target for future research at debris avalanche sites, and some plausible mechanisms are considered. The main reason probably involves the entrainment of river water and saturated sediment, leading to enhanced efficiency of fluid pressure mechanisms with undrained shear; in addition, progressive shearing reduced the mean particle size and angularity, and the cohesion and friction (and apparent viscosity) of avalanche debris near the wetted perimeter. Hydroplaning — the shearing of water films and slurries — may have occurred locally.     

温州群发性坡面泥石流临界雨量研究

温州地处浙江东南沿海,降雨充沛。台风等极端气候灾害引起的强降雨次数繁多,并可能引发地区周边泥石流等地质灾害。收集相关地区、时段的气象、水文资料,并对研究区降雨数据进行处理,在野外实地调查、遥感解译的基础上,根据研究区地质灾害调查结果,总结群发性坡面泥石流特征,分析其形成的地质环境条件。针对致灾因子降雨量与温州地区群发性泥石流灾害的因果关系,获取坡面泥石流发生周期内的各时段降雨量,并利用相关性分析确定最大1h、3h雨强为研究变量,在二维坐标平面上投影近百个案例点,拟合得出临界雨量方程,并根据泥石流发生与否划分区域计算超越概率和误报概率,得出温州地区泥石流爆发前期雨强满足"两倍关系"的经验结论,寻求解决温州地区实际泥石流地质灾害预警问题的可行性。     

基于小流域的地震扰动区降雨型滑坡泥石流危险性评价方法

地震扰动区存在大量震裂松散坡体,在持续或者密集的降雨条件下极易转化为滑坡灾害。同时,滑坡又会给泥石流提供大量松散固体物质,增加泥石流的危险性。因此,在震区,灾害通常以"链"的形式出现,比单一灾种危害性大。为了更有效地对地质灾害危险性进行评价,笔者将滑坡、泥石流作为灾害链,综合地加以分析和研究。选择5·12汶川大地震中受灾严重的都江堰市白沙河流域的17条泥石流沟作为研究区,建立滑坡-泥石流危险性评价耦合模型,研究24 h不同降雨量条件下小流域滑坡泥石流危险性的变化。耦合模型包括了坡体稳定性评价模型,水文模型及以泥石流规模、发生频率、流域面积、主沟长度、流域高差、切割密度、不稳定斜坡比为评价因子的泥石流危险性评价统计模型。研究结果表明:随着降雨量的增大,参与泥石流活动的松散物质方量持续增加,但当24 h降雨量超过200 mm后,泥石流沟的危险度等级不再发生变化;17条泥石流沟中4条为中危险度,12条为高危险度,1条为极高危险度。这说明研究区地质灾害问题相当严峻,在多雨季节存在泥石流群发的可能性,直接威胁到居住在泥石流沟附近的人民群众生命财产安全;因此,对于有直接危害对象的高危险度及其以上的泥石流沟,应该按照高等级设防标准进行工程治理及发布预警报。同时也说明,将滑坡、泥石流作为灾害链研究具必要性和可行性。     

北京怀柔7·16暴雨泥石流发育特征与形成机理

2018年7月16日北京怀柔云蒙山地区突发山洪泥石流灾害,国道G111和省道S310多处毁损,周边4个乡镇506人被迫紧急转移。本文通过灾害发生前后高清卫星影像解译和现场详细调查,研究了区域内典型泥石流沟的地形地貌特征和松散固体物质来源,分析了泥石流形成的降雨激发条件,估算了容重、流速、流量等重要参数,并基于沟床块石稳定性分析改进了泥石流启动与降雨强度之间的关系式。研究表明,怀柔7·16泥石流属极端气象条件下短历时强降雨所激发的稀性泥石流,在连续2 h降雨条件下,其临界激发雨强不低于8~15 mm·h-1,物源主要来自于沟床堆积物的揭底输移,沟床岸坡松散堆积体侧蚀增加了物源补给,强降雨条件下很可能再次发生类似规模的泥石流。该研究可对今后区域内泥石流的防灾减灾工作提供参考。     

极端冰雪灾害条件下松散堆积体边坡演化分析

针对2008年初南方罕见的极端冰雪气候,为研究其与地质灾害的相关性,探讨了极端冰雪灾害条件下均质松散堆积体边坡的演化特征。比较了融雪与降雨触发滑坡的异同点,通过具体事例分析了融雪触发滑坡灾害的一般规律。引入度日因子与雪雨当量两个物理量,根据南方极端冰雪气候特征建立了简化的有效融雪模型,并从渗流场、稳定性及变形3个方面模拟计算在不同雨雪当量下均质松散堆积体坡体的演化特征。结果表明,一定的融雪速率与融雪量对松散堆积体边坡渗流场无影响。随着融雪的持续,非饱和区基质吸力逐渐减小,坡体整体稳定性逐渐降低。坡面上水平位移与竖向位移逐渐增大,表现为水平方向上前缘变形大于后缘,竖直方向上后缘下错与前缘隆起。在融雪持续一段时间后,坡体失稳破坏。     

Neural network modeling for regional hazard assessment of debris flow in Lake Qionghai Watershed, China

This paper presents a neural network (NN) based model to assess the regional hazard degree of debris flows in Lake Qionghai Watershed, China. The NN model was used as an alternative for the more conventional linear model MFCAM (multi-factor composite assessment model) in order to effectively handle the nonlinearity and uncertainty inherent in the debris flow hazard analysis. The NN model was configured using a three layer structure with eight input nodes and one output node, and the number of nodes in the hidden layer was determined through an iterative process of varying the number of nodes in the hidden layer until an optimal performance was achieved. The eight variables used to represent the eight input nodes include density of debris flow gully, degree of weathering of rocks, active fault density, area percentage of slope land greater than 25° of the total land (APL25), frequency of flooding hazards, average covariance of monthly precipitation by 10 years (ACMP10), average days with rainfall >25 mm by 10 years (25D10Y), and percentage of cultivated land with slope land greater than 25° of the total cultivated land (PCL25). The output node represents the hazard-degree ranks (HDR). The model was trained with the 35 sets of data obtained from previous researches reported in literatures, and an explicit uncertainty analysis was undertaken to address the uncertainty in model training and prediction. Before the NN model is extrapolated to Lake Qionghai Watershed, a validation case, different from the above data, is conducted. In addition, the performances of the NN model and the MFCAM were compared. The NN model predicted that the HDRs of the five sub-watersheds in the Lake Qionghai Watershed were IV, IV, III, III, and IV–V, indicating that the study area covers normal hazard and severe hazard areas. Based on the NN model results, debris flow management and economic development strategies in the study are proposed for each sub-watershed.     

基于熵权-正态云模型的泥石流灾害易发性评价

近年来,由于极端天气事件频发和工程建设活动加剧,泥石流灾害对人类的威胁愈加严峻。因此,在综合分析泥石流灾害发育特征及形成机理的基础上,进行泥石流灾害易发性评价对防灾减灾工程活动具有指导意义。选取沟谷岸坡坡度、沟床纵坡比降、植被覆盖率、单位面积固体物源储量、汇水面积、雨季降雨量建立评价指标体系,采用熵权法确定评价指标权重,将泥石流灾害易发性分为高易发、中易发、低易发和不易发四级,建立基于正态云模型的泥石流灾害易发性评价方法,并以西秦岭地区5条泥石流沟为例验证了该评价模型的合理性。进一步将该模型用于陕西吴堡井沟泥石流灾害易发性评价,结果表明井沟泥石流具有中易发性,评价结果与实际相符。     

Rainfall-related debris flows in Carhuacocha Valley, Cordillera Huayhuash, Peru

Continuous heavy rainfall hit northern Peru in the second half of the 2008/2009 summer season. From the end of January to the beginning of March, the Cordillera Huayhuash experienced abnormally high precipitations that exceeded 270?mm. The antecedent rainfall, aggravated with a severe rainstorm of 20?mm on March 7 triggered a large debris flow in the upper Carhuacocha Valley early in the morning on March 8. The debris flow interrupted drainage from the upper part of the valley damming a lake in the narrow depression between the trough slope and the lateral moraine. As a result of the drainage interruption, water percolated through the moraine dam of Cangrajanca Lake where a secondary mass movement occurred in its inner slope. In September 2009, we mapped the debris flow and related landforms and estimated the total area and volume of both mass movements using geodetic measurements. About 104,000?m³ of sediments was moved from the trough slope towards the moraine from which 534,000?m³ flowed to Cangrajanca Lake subsequently. We analysed the rainfall conditions that triggered the debris flow using rainfall data from the nearby stations. We also compared the precipitation preceding the event with the rainfall thresholds for debris flow initiation.     

四川都江堰三溪村710高位山体滑坡研究

2013年7月10日上午10时,四川都江堰市中兴镇三溪村受极端暴雨影响发生高位山体滑坡灾害,滑坡-碎屑堆积体方量超过150104m3,其中1#滑坡-碎屑堆积体长度1.26km,造成三溪村一组重大人员伤亡。笔者在野外实地调查和室内研究分析的基础上,总结了都江堰三溪村滑坡的基本特征,研究了其启动运动机制和滑动速度,主要认识如下:（1）该滑坡为一处高位山体滑坡,后缘白垩系砂砾岩地层高速滑动后剧烈撞击-铲刮-偏转后铲动坡体上的松散堆积层而形成高位山体滑坡-碎屑流灾害。（2）根据滑坡的运动及堆积特征,将1#滑坡划分为砂砾岩滑动区、碰撞铲刮区和碎屑流堆积覆盖区3部分。（3）7月8日8时至10日8时,中兴镇三溪村的持续强降雨天气过程（都江堰市3d的降雨量相当于该地区年降雨总量的44.1%）,直接触发了滑坡的发生。（4）三溪村滑坡的发生受2008年汶川地震、特殊的岩土体性质、地形地貌条件以及极端暴雨事件的综合影响,地震、地形为其发育提供了基础条件,极端暴雨事件为其直接诱发因素。（5）建议加强高位山体滑坡的研究,尤其是远程滑坡-碎屑流的早期识别和预警。     

泥石流流变参数敏感性分析

合理的流变参数选取对准确刻画泥石流、高速远程滑坡运动过程和动力行为至关重要。本研究基于三维连续介质动态数值模型,构建Voellmy流变模型,结合方差分析方法,比较了不同流变参数对泥石流运动行为的影响程度。结果表明:动力底摩擦角和湍流系数均会对泥石流与高速远程滑坡的动力特征产生一定的影响,但影响程度各异。较大的动力底摩擦角会产生更大、更快的能量耗散过程,使得运动过程整体滞后;较高的湍流系数增加了流体层之间的动量交换强度,具有较大的与周围界质混合的能力,对周围介质的卷吸作用增大。物源区体积（湍流系数）在一定程度上仅影响泥石流运动速度,对致灾范围和规模影响作用不大。沟道下垫面情况、颗粒物组成、孔隙水压力（底摩擦角）与灾害体流速、移动距离和堆积区体积、面积关系很密切,在很大程度上影响泥石流、滑坡强度,致灾范围和规模。研究成果以期为流变参数选取提供很好的借鉴方法,也为地质灾害防治提供一定的技术参考。     

四川雷波碉楼沟泥石流特征及防治对策

碉楼沟泥石流沟为西苏角河左岸的一级支流,位于四川省雷波县西侧,流域面积0.85km~2,主沟长度1.6km,纵比降504.4‰。碉楼沟流域属构造侵蚀高中山地貌,呈叶状,支沟众多,主沟较少暴发泥石流。2015年5月7日碉楼沟暴发山洪灾害,造成8人死亡和严重财产损失,并对下游马颈子场镇居民的生命财产安全构成了威胁。在地质勘查的基础上,分析泥石流基本特征、形成条件,计算泥石流的重度、流速、一次泥石流总量等动力学参数。结合碉楼沟泥石流的特征和场镇社会、经济可持续发展的需要,提出防治方案,对该类泥石流沟谷的调查和防治具有一定实际意义。     

Landslide and debris flow initiated characteristics after typhoon Morakot in Taiwan

Typhoon Morakot brought extreme rainfall and initiated numerous landslides and debris flows in southern Taiwan in August of 2009. The purpose of this study is to identify the extreme rainfall-induced landslide frequency-area distribution in the Laonong River Basin in southern Taiwan and debris flow-initiated conditions under rainfall. Results of the analysis show that debris flows were initiated under high cumulative rainfall and long rainfall duration or high rainfall intensity. The relationship of mean rainfall intensity and duration threshold could reflect debris flow initiation characteristics under high rainfall intensity in short rainfall duration conditions. The relationship of cumulative rainfall and duration threshold could reflect debris flow initiation characteristics under high cumulative rainfall in long rainfall duration. Defining rainfall events by estimating rainfall parameters with different methodologies could reveal variations among intermittent rainfall events for the benefit of issuing debris flow warnings. The exponent of landslide frequency-area distribution induced by Typhoon Morakot is lower than that induced by the Chi-Chi earthquake. The lower exponent of landslide frequency-area distribution can be attributed to the transportation and deposition areas of debris flow that are included in the landslide area. Climate change induced high rainfall intensity and long duration of precipitation, for example, Typhoon Morakot brought increased frequency of debris flow and created difficulty in issuing warnings from rainfall monitoring.