Analysis of the relationship of landslide occurrence with rainfall: a case study of Wudu County,China

Landslides are a significant hazard in many parts of the world and represent an important geohazard in China. Rainfall is the primary triggering agent for landslides and often used for prediction slope failures. However, the relationship between rainfall and landslide occurrences is very complex. Great efforts have been made on the study of regional rainfall-induced landslide forecasting models in recent years; still, there is no commonly accepted method for rainfall-induced landslide prediction. In this paper, the quantitative antecedent soil water status (ASWS) model is applied to investigate the influence of daily and antecedent rainfall on the triggering of landslides and debris flows. The study area is Wudu County in Gansu Province, an area which exhibits frequent landslide occurrences. The results demonstrate a significant influence of high intensity rainfall events on landslide triggering. Still, antecedent rainfall conditions are very important and once a threshold of approximately 20 mm is exceeded, landslides and debris flows can occur even without additional rainfall. The study presented could also facilitate the implementation of a regional forecasting scheme once additional validation has been carried out.     

Investigation of the 20 August 2005 fatal landslide at Fu Yung Shan Tsuen, Hong Kong

On 20 August 2005, a landslide with a volume of about 400  m³ occurred at Fu Yung Shan Tsuen, Tsuen Wan in Hong Kong during a severe rainstorm with a return period of about 100  years on a hillside that has been disturbed locally by past human activities. The incident resulted in one fatality and permanent evacuation of residents of four squatter structures in the vicinity. A forensic investigation into the landslide was carried out to review the mechanism and probable causes of the landslide. The key contributory factors in the landslide were diagnosed. The investigation concluded that the landslide was probably caused by the loss of soil suction and transient build-up of groundwater pressure in the near-surface soil materials following prolonged and intense rainfall. The paper presents the methodology adopted for the landslide study, findings of the investigation and the lessons learnt from this fatal landslide.     

Frequency–volume relation and prediction of rainfall-induced landslides

Rainfall-induced landslides constitute a major public concern in Hong Kong. This paper investigates two aspects of critical importance to landslide hazard and risk assessment and management: magnitude–cumulative frequency relationship for landslides, and relationship between rainfall and the occurrence of landslides. The results indicated that landslides with a failure volume of not less than 4 m³ have a cumulative frequency–size distribution with a power-law dependence on volume of failure. Analysis of rainfall/landslides showed that the 12-hour rolling rainfall is most important in predicting the number of landslides. Failure volume dependency in the relationships between rainfall and the number of landslides is also presented. However, with an increase in failure volume of landslides, the most important rainfall variable may vary from rainfall of short duration (12-h rolling rainfall) to that of relatively long duration (24-h rolling rainfall).     

Formation,failure, and consequences of the Xiaolin landslide dam,triggered by extreme rainfall from Typhoon Morakot,Taiwan

An extreme rainfall event on August 9, 2009, which was close to setting a world record for 48-h accumulated rainfall, induced the Xiaolin deep-seated landslide, which was located in southwestern Taiwan and had volume of 27.6?×?10⁶?m³, and caused the formation of a landslide dam. The landslide dam burst in a very short time, and little information remained afterward. We reconstructed the process of formation and failure of the Xiaolin landslide dam and also inferred the area of the impoundment and topographic changes. A 5?×?5-m digital elevation model, the recorded water stage of the Qishan River, and data from field investigation were used for analysis. The spectral magnitude of the seismic signals induced by the Xiaolin landslide and flooding due to failure of the landslide dam were analyzed to estimate the timing of the dam breach and the peak discharge of the subsequent flood. The Xiaolin landslide dam failure resulted from overtopping. We verified the longevity of the Xiaolin landslide dam at about 2 h relying on seismic signals and water level records. In addition, the inundated area, volume of the impoundment behind the Xiaolin landslide dam, and peak discharge of the flood were estimated at 92.3 ha, 19.5?×?10⁶?m³, and 17?×?10³?m³/s, respectively. The mean velocity of the flood-recession wave front due to the dam blockage was estimated at 28 km/h, and the peak flooding velocity after failure of the dam was estimated at 23 km/h. The Xiaolin landslide provides an invaluable opportunity for understanding the mechanism of deep-seated landslides and flooding processes following a landslide dam failure.     

Characteristics and numerical runout modeling of the heavy rainfall-induced catastrophic landslide–debris flow at Sanxicun,Dujiangyan, China,following the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake

The 2008 Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake triggered a large number of extensive landslides. It also affected geologic properties of the mountains such that large-scale landslides followed the earthquake, resulting in the formation of a disaster chain. On 10 July 2013, a catastrophic landslide–debris flow suddenly occurred in the Dujiangyan area of Sichuan Province in southeast China. This caused the deaths of 166 people and the burying or damage of 11 buildings along the runout path. The landslide involved the failure of ≈1.47 million m³, and the displaced material from the source area was ≈0.3 million m³. This landslide displayed shear failure at a high level under the effects of a rainstorm, which impacted and scraped an accumulated layer underneath and a heavily weathered rock layer during the release of potential and kinetic energies. The landslide body entrained a large volume of surface residual diluvial soil, and then moved downstream along a gully to produce a debris flow disaster. This was determined to be a typical landslide–debris flow disaster type. The runout of displaced material had a horizontal extent of 1200 m and a vertical extent of 400 m. This was equivalent to the angle of reach (fahrböschung angle) of 19° and covered an area of 0.2 km². The background and motion of the landslide are described in this study. On the basis of the above analysis, dynamic simulation software (DAN3D) and rheological models were used to simulate the runout behavior of the displaced landslide materials in order to provide information for the hazard zonation of similar types of potential landslide–debris flows in southeast China following the Wenchuan earthquake. The simulation results of the Sanxicun landslide revealed that the frictional model had the best performance for the source area, while the Voellmy model was most suitable for the scraping and accumulation areas. The simulations estimated that the motion could last for ≈70 s, with a maximum speed of 47.7 m/s.     

The variety of landslide forms in Slovenia and its immediate NW surroundings

The Post-Forum Study Tour following the 4th World Landslide Forum 2017 in Ljubljana (Slovenia) focuses on the variety of landslide forms in Slovenia and its immediate NW surroundings, and the best-known examples of devastating landslides induced by rainfall or earthquakes. They differ in complexity of the both surrounding area and of the particular geological, structural and geotechnical features. Many of the landslides of the Study Tour are characterized by huge volumes and high velocity at the time of activation or development in the debris flow. In addition, to the damage to buildings, the lives of hundreds of people are also endangered; human casualties occur. On the first day, we will observe complex Pleistocene to recent landslides related to the Mesozoic carbonates thrust over folded and tectonically fractured Tertiary siliciclastic flysch in the Vipava Valley (SW Slovenia), serving as the main passage between the Friulian lowland and central Slovenia, and thus also an important corridor connecting Northern Italy to Central Europe. A combination of unfavourable geological conditions and intense short or prolonged rainfall periods leads to the formation of different types of complex landslides, from large-scale deep-seated rotational and translational slides to shallow landslides, slumps and sediment gravity flows in the form of debris or mudflows. The second day of the study tour will be held in the So?a River Valley located in NW Slovenia close to the border with Italy, where the most catastrophic Sto?e landslide in Slovenia recently caused the deaths of seven people, and the nearby Strug landslide, which is a combination of rockfall, landslide and debris flow. The final day of the Post-Forum Study Tour will start in the Valcanale Valley located across the border between Slovenia and Italy, severely affected by a debris flow in August 2003. The flow caused the deaths of two people, damaged 260 buildings; large amounts of deposits blocked the A23 Highway, covering both lanes. In Carinthia (Austria), about 25 km west of Villach, the Dobra?/Dobratsch multiple scarps of prehistoric and historic rockslides will be observed. Dobratsch is a massive mountain ridge with a length of 17 km and a width of 6 km, characterized by steep rocky walls. The 3-day study tour will conclude with a presentation of the Poto?ka planina landslide, a slide whose lower part may eventually generate a debris flow and therefore represents a hazard for the inhabitants and for the infrastructure within or near the village of Koro?ka Bela.     

影响云南省滑坡泥石流活动的几个自然因素

根据1989～2002年云南省滑坡、泥石流调查资料，在单因素分析的基础上，确定地形、岩土体类型、降雨、地震、活动断裂、气候带和植被覆盖率共7个因素是云南省影响滑坡泥石流的主要自然因素。通过R-型因子分析、逐步回归分析和灰色关联度分析，得出对滑坡影响程度由大到小的因子排序是：海拔和高差、地形坡度、地震、活动断裂、岩组、降雨量；对泥石流影响程度由大到小的因子排序是：活动断裂、海拔和高差、岩组、降雨量、地震。     

Deformation and mechanism of landslide influenced by the effects of reservoir water and rainfall, Three Gorges, China

Since the impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir in June 2003, numerous preexisting landslides have been reactivated. This paper seeks to find the factors influencing landslide deformation and the relationship between displacement and fluctuation of the reservoir water level, while the displacement and the intensity of rainfall based on monitoring data; 6 years of monitoring were carried out on the Shiliushubao landslide, a old landslide, consisting of a deep-seated main block and two shallow blocks, with a volume of 1,180 × 10⁴ m³ and located on the left bank of the Yangtze River, 66 km upstream of the Three Gorges dam. This landslide was reactivated by the impoundment and since then the landslide body has been experiencing persistent deformation with an observed maximum cumulative displacement of 8,598.5 mm up to December 2009. Based on the monitoring data, we analyzed the relationship between the fluctuation of the reservoir water level and displacement, rainfall and displacement, and found that the rainfall is the major factor influencing deformation for two shallow blocks and the displacement has a positive correlation with the variation of rainfall intensity. The fluctuation of the reservoir water level is the primary factor for main block, and the deformation rate has a negative correlation with the variation of reservoir water level, declined with the rise of the water level and increased with the drawdown of the water level.     

The deformation analysis of Wenjiagou giant landslide by the distributed scatterer interferometry technique

After the deadly Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, the Wenjiagou landslide produced steep topography, a narrow gully and abundant loose sediments; these factors have contributed to the high debris flow risk in the Wenjiagou area during subsequent rainy seasons. At least five debris flows have occurred in the Wenjiagou area between September 24, 2008, and September 18, 2010, which resulted in seven casualties and an economic loss of approximately 446 million RMB. To reduce the risk of debris flows and landslides, the Wenjiagou Valley Debris Flow Control Project (WVDFCP), which cost over 2 billion RMB, was carried out and completed in 2011. The control measures of the project effectively reduced the scale and damage of the following debris flows. In this paper, the recent deformation of the giant landslide and its effect on the WVDFCP are evaluated by applying a time-series interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) technique based on distributed scatterers (DSs) to the Radardat-2 SAR data collected from June 2014 to September 2015. In addition, the experimental results show that most areas of the landslide are stable, with an average deformation rate of less than 5.0 mm/year. The results demonstrate that the control measures of the WVDFCP not only reduced the damage caused by the later debris flows but also contributed to the consolidation of the loose sediments in the Wenjiagou landslide area. The time-series InSAR technique based on the DSs of high-resolution SAR images is an important tool for deformation monitoring of earthquake-induced landslides.     

Regional-scale landslide activity and landslide susceptibility zonation in the Nepal Himalaya

Landslide susceptibility zonation mapping is a fundamental procedure for geo-disaster management in tropical and sub-tropical regions. Recently, various landslide susceptibility zonation models have been introduced in Nepal with diverse approaches of assessment. However, validation is still a problem. Additionally, the role of various predisposing causative parameters for landslide activity is still not well understood in the Nepal Himalaya. To address these issues of susceptibility zonation and landslide activity, about 4,000 km² area of central Nepal was selected for regional-scale assessment of landslide activity and susceptibility zonation mapping. In total, 655 new landslides and 9,229 old landslides were identified with the study area with the help of satellite images, aerial photographs, field data and available reports. The old landslide inventory was “blind landslide database” and could not explain the particular rainfall event responsible for the particular landslide. But considering size of the landslide, blind landslide inventory was reclassified into two databases: short-duration high-intensity rainfall-induced landslide inventory and long-duration low-intensity rainfall-induced landslide inventory. These landslide inventory maps were considered as proxy maps of multiple rainfall event-based landslide inventories. Similarly, all 9,884 landslides were considered for the activity assessment of predisposing causative parameters. For the Nepal Himalaya, slope, slope aspect, geology and road construction activity (anthropogenic cause) were identified as most affective predisposing causative parameters for landslide activity. For susceptibility zonation, multivariate approach was considered and two proxy rainfall event-based landslide databases were used for the logistic regression modelling, while a relatively recent landslide database was used in validation. Two event-based susceptibility zonation maps were merged and rectified to prepare the final susceptibility zonation map and its prediction rate was found to be more than 82 %. From this work, it is concluded that rectification of susceptibility zonation map is very appropriate and reliable. The results of this research contribute to a significant improvement in landslide inventory preparation procedure, susceptibility zonation mapping approaches as well as role of various predisposing causative parameters for the landslide activity.     

Hydrometeorological thresholds for landslide initiation and forest operation shutdowns on the north coast of British Columbia

Debris flows and debris avalanches are the most widespread and hazardous types of landslides on the British Columbia north coast. Triggered by heavy rain, they pose risks to forestry workers in sparsely developed regions. The scarcity of long-term quality rain gauges and the lack of weather radar information create significant challenge in predicting the timing of landslides, which could be used to warn and, when necessary, evacuate forestry personnel. Traditional methods to relate rainfall antecedents and rainfall intensity to known landslide dates have proven to be unsatisfactory in this study due to extreme spatial variability of rainfall, enhanced by the orographic effect and the scarcity of rain gauges in a very large area. This has led to an integration of meteorological variables in a landslide advisory system that classifies three types of approaching storms by the 850-mbar wind speed and direction, the occurrence of subtropical moisture flow, and the existence of a warm layer characterized by high thickness values of the 500- to 1,000-mbar pressure levels. The storm classification was combined with a 4-week antecedent rainfall and the 24-h rainfall measured near or in the watershed where logging operations are taking place. This system, once implemented, is thought to reduce loss of life, injury, and economic losses associated with forestry works in the study area.     

Mechanisms and runout characteristics of the rainfall-triggered debris flow in Xiaojiagou in Sichuan Province, China

The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake induced a large number of landslides, and a vast amount of loose landslide materials deposited on steep hill slopes or in channels. Such loose materials can become sources of deadly debris flows once triggered by storms. On 13 August 2010, a storm swept Yingxiu and its vicinity, triggering a catastrophic debris flow with a volume of 1.17?million?m³ in Xiaojiagou Ravine. The debris flow buried 1,100?m of road, blocked a river and formed a debris flow barrier lake. A detailed field study was conducted to understand the initiation mechanisms and runout characteristics of this debris flow. Two types of debris flows are identified, namely hill-slope debris flow and channelized debris flow. The hill-slope debris flow was triggered in the forms of firehose effect, rilling and landsliding, whereas the channelized debris flow was triggered in the form of channel-bed failure. This debris flow was a water?Crock flow since most particles were gravel, cobble or larger rocks and the fraction of silt and clay was less than 2%. Grain contact friction, pore-pressure effects and inertial grain collision were the three most important physical interactions within the debris flow. Such interactions yielded a smaller runout distance (593?m) compared with those of mud?Crock flows of similar size.     

A loess landslide induced by excavation and rainfall

The initiation of loess landslides is a common engineering problem during the construction of the expressway or other engineering works in the Loess Plateau of China. The engineers and researchers should devote themselves to the prevention of the initiation of loess landslides. This study focused on a loess landslide which was induced during the construction of an expressway in Shanxi Province of China. The stabilities of the loess hillside slope before and after excavation were analyzed using limit equilibrium analysis method and the strength reduction finite element method, respectively. The analysis results indicated that the loess hillside slope, before excavation, was stable under both natural state and rainfall conditions. The collapse of the loess hillside slope, or the initiation of loess landslides, after having been excavated, was induced by excavation and rainfall. The integrated stabilization method including four parts was used to stabilize the loess landslide. The four parts were a reinforced concrete piles row, a rubble concrete retaining wall, alteration of slope geometry, and interception and drainage of water. The initiation of the loess landslide might be evitable if it was given enough attention before excavation; thus, the problem of loess landslides should be paid big attention during the survey and design of the engineering works, not only during the construction.     

Design and performance of a novel multi-function debris flow mitigation system in Wenjia Gully,Sichuan

The post-earthquake debris flows in the Wenjia Gully led to the exposure of the shortcomings in the design of the original conventional debris flow mitigation system. A predicament for the Wenjia mitigation system is a large amount of loose material (est. 50 × 10⁶ m³) that has been deposited in the gully by the co-seismic landslide, providing abundant source material for debris flows under saturation. A novel design solution for the replacement mitigation system was proposed and constructed, and has exhibited excellent performance and resilience in subsequent debris flows. The design was governed by the three-phase philosophy of controlling water, sediment, and erosion. An Early Warning System (EWS) for debris flow that uses real-time field data was developed; it issues alerts based on the probabilistic and empirical correlations between rainfall and debris flows. This two-fold solution reduces energy of the debris flow by combining different mitigation measures while minimizing the impact through event forecasting and rapid public information sharing. Declines in the number and size of debris flows in the gully, with increased corresponding rainfall thresholds and mean rainfall intensity-duration (I-D) thresholds, indicate the high efficacy of the new mitigation system and a lowered debris flow susceptibility. This paper reports the design of the mitigation system and analyzes the characteristics of rainfall and debris flow events that occurred before and after implementation of the system; it evaluates the effectiveness of one of the most advanced debris flow mitigation systems in China.     

A test of transferability for landslides susceptibility models under extreme climatic events: application to the Messina 2009 disaster

A model building strategy is tested to assess the susceptibility for extreme climatic events driven shallow landslides. In fact, extreme climatic inputs such as storms typically are very local phenomena in the Mediterranean areas, so that with the exception of recently stricken areas, the landslide inventories which are required to train any stochastic model are actually unavailable. A solution is here proposed, consisting in training a susceptibility model in a source catchment, which was implemented by applying the binary logistic regression technique, and exporting its predicting function (selected predictors regressed coefficients) in a target catchment to predict its landslide distribution. To test the method, we exploit the disaster that occurred in the Messina area (southern Italy) on 1 October 2009 where, following a 250-mm/8-h storm, approximately two thousand debris flow/debris avalanches landslides in an area of 21 km² triggered, killing 37 people and injuring more than 100, and causing 0.5 M € worth of structural damage. The debris flows and debris avalanches phenomena involved the thin weathered mantle of the Varisican low to high-grade metamorphic rocks that outcrop in the eastern slopes of the Peloritani Mounts. Two 10-km²-wide stream catchments, which are located inside the storm core area, were exploited: susceptibility models trained in the Briga catchment were tested when exported to predict the landslides distribution in the Giampilieri catchment. The prediction performance (based on goodness of fit, prediction skill, accuracy and precision assessment) of the exported model was then compared with that of a model prepared in the Giampilieri catchment exploiting its landslide inventory. The results demonstrate that the landslide scenario observed in the Giampilieri catchment can be predicted with the same high performance without knowing its landslide distribution: we obtained, in fact, a very poor decrease in predictive performance when comparing the exported model to the native random partition-based model.     

5.12震源区牛眠沟暴雨滑坡泥石流预测模型

牛眠沟研究区位于2008-05-12汶川大地震线性震源的南端,受强烈地震力作用,区内山体遭受严重破坏,发生多处滑坡和泥石流灾害。根据已建立的暴雨滑坡、泥石流预测概念模型,暴雨滑坡、泥石流预测可视为判断滑坡形成的地质环境和确定触发滑坡的降雨特征。查明研究区地质环境及灾害特征,确定了产生滑坡、泥石流的必要地质环境因子,以数字滑坡技术获取这些因子数据,代入模型,即可评价研究区各处、各沟谷发生滑坡、泥石流的危险程度;与相似地质环境及气候条件进行类比,确定研究区触发滑坡、泥石流的降雨特征及降雨量阈值后,最终建立暴雨滑坡、泥石流预测模型。据此模型进行研究区暴雨滑坡、泥石流预测,实地验证表明滑坡、泥石流发生位置的准确率>90%。     

Catastrophic debris flows triggered by a 4 July 2013 rainfall in Shimian,SW China: formation mechanism,disaster characteristics and the lessons learned

On 4 July 2013, three catastrophic debris flows occurred in the Hougou, Majingzi, and Xiongjia gullies in Shimian county and produced debris dams and river blockages, resulting in serious casualties and huge economic loss. Though debris flows have been identified prior to the catastrophic events, their magnitudes and destructive power were far beyond early recognition and hazard assessment. Our primary objective for this study was to explore the formation mechanism and typical characteristics and to summarize the lessons learned from these disastrous events in order to avoid the repeat of such disasters in the future. Based on field investigation and imagery interpretation of remote sensing carried out following the catastrophic events, four conclusions were drawn: (1) The catastrophic debris flows were initiated from surface-water runoff, and the triggering factor was attributed to the local intensive rainfall with an hourly intensity of more than 46.7 mm. (2) Entrainment was the most important sediment-supplying method for the debris flow occurrence, and the source materials transported by debris flows from the three gullies were estimated to be about 97?×?10⁴ m³ in volume altogether. (3) As surface-water runoff eroded and entrained hillslope and channel materials persistently, debris flows were characterized by intensive incision at upper or middle reaches and significant magnification effect in flow discharge and volume downstream. Corresponding peak discharge surveyed at the outlets of the Hougou, Majingzi, and Xiongjia gullies was estimated up to 751.0 m³/s, 870.1 m³/s, and 758.7 m³/s, respectively. (4) Debris flows that occurred from the three gullies all belonged to viscous ones and the bulk densities were calculated more than 1.80 g/cm³, indicating a huge carrying capacity and destructive impacting power. In addition, the lessons learned from the catastrophic events were summarized, including recognition and assessment on debris flow hazard and utilization of deposition fan. In this paper, prevention suggestions on debris flow prone valleys with high-vegetation coverage and low occurrence frequency were also put forward. The results of this study contribute to a better understanding on the initiation mechanism, dynamic characteristics, and disaster mitigation of debris flows initiated from intense rainfall and surface-water runoff in mountainous areas.     

Local rainfall thresholds for forecasting landslide occurrence: Taipingshan landslide triggered by Typhoon Saola

This paper presents a case study of the Taipingshan landslide, which was triggered by Typhoon Saola in 2012. Taipingshan villa is one of the most famous scenic locations within the Taipingshan National Forest Recreation Area in northern Taiwan. Since the early 1990s, evidence of recent landslide activity appeared throughout the Taipingshan villa and included features such as tension cracks, ground settlement, and cracking in manmade structures. In response, a series of geological investigations and in-site/laboratory tests were conducted in 2010 to estimate slope stability and predict critical rainfall thresholds (event accumulated rainfall) for landslide activity. Results revealed that the critical rainfall threshold for the Taipingshan National Forest Recreation Area is 1765 mm. In 2012, that threshold was tested when Typhoon Saola brought tremendous rainfall to northern and eastern Taiwan and triggered activity along the main scarp of sliding mass B located near the History Exhibition Hall. According to in situ extensometer readings and on-site precipitation data, the extensometer was severed at an accumulated rainfall 1694 mm. Field monitoring data during the typhoon event are in good agreement with the rainfall threshold. These preliminary results suggest that the threshold may be useful for assessing the rainfall threshold of other landslides and a good reference for establishing early warning systems for landslides.     

Identification of the affected areas by mass movement through a physically based model of landslide hazard combined with an empirical model of debris flow

In tropical areas, mass movements are common phenomena, especially during periods of heavy rainfall, which frequently take place in the summer season. These phenomena have caused loss of life and serious damage to infrastructure and properties. The most prominent of these phenomena are landslides that can produce debris flows. Thus, this article aims at determining affected areas using a model to predict landslide prone areas (SHALSTAB) combined with an empirical model designed to define the debris flow travel distance and area of deposition. The methodology of this work consists of the following steps: (a) elaboration of a digital elevation model (DEM), (b) application of the deterministic SHALSTAB model to locate the landslide prone areas, (c) identification of the debris flow travel distance and area of deposition, and (d) mapping of the affected areas (landslides and debris flows). This work was developed in an area in which many mass movements occurred after intense rainfall during the summer season (February 1996) in the state of Rio de Janeiro, southeast Brazil. All of the scars produced by that event were mapped, allowing for validation of the applied models. The model results show that the mapped landslide locations can adequately be simulated by the model.     

Regional landslide risk to the Cairns community

A GIS-based regional reconnaissance-level assessment of landslide risk to the Cairns community has been carried out to provide information to the Cairns City Council for planning and emergency management purposes. Magnitude recurrence relations were tentatively established for the two main slope processes: landslides on the hill slopes; and large debris flows extending out from the gully systems on to the plains. From the recurrence relations, landslide hazard (H) was estimated as the annual probability of a point being impacted by a landslide. The nature, number (E) and geographic distribution of the elements at risk were obtained by interrogating the GIS, and their vulnerabilities (V) to destruction by the two main landslide slope processes were assessed. From this information, specific risk (= H × V) and total risk (= H × V× E) maps were produced.Although total landslide risk is relatively low at present, it will increase as development extends further into the hill slopes, unless adequate mitigation measures are taken. Large debris flows, while considerably less frequent than landslides on cut slopes, could impact on subdivisions at the base of the slopes. Blockage by landslides of roads and railways providing access to Cairns can cause isolation of the community. Flash flooding in Freshwater Creek, or debris flows, have the potential to disrupt the Cairns water supply by blocking the intake or destroying sections of the pipeline.