云南历史地震记载与强震目录再析

上世纪50、80年代，我国曾两次广泛搜集地震历史资料，编辑出版了《中国地震资料年表》、《中国地震历史资料汇编》及各省区《地震资料汇编》等。在此基础上编制了1960年、1995年等4版强震目录，它们反映出我国历史强震活动及其灾害的基本状况，是地震预测、防震减灾等研究的基础资料。但因资料分析主要存在以下3方面问题，致使一些地震参数判定有误，并丢失了大量的中强地震：①历史记述之真伪判定与取舍；②无破坏性文字记述的所谓“有感地震”的分析处理；③地震震中、强度及其精度判定。本文以云南历史地震记载为据，对照1995年版《中国历史强震目录》(国家地震局震害防御司，1995)(以下简称《95目录》)，就以上问题予以讨论。     

康定,东川两地段强震活动对比及在川滇强震预测中的意义

本文提出了具有相似活动构造背景的强震多发段康定段和东川段。对两者历史强震迁移和与川滇大地震的紧密联系,作了较有说服力的多次震例证明,因而本文所论及的有关活动特征在川滇未来强震预测中有一定参考价值。     

唐山地震的超晚期强余震估计

根据华北历史地震的重复性和免疫性，认为在唐山周围８５ｋｍ，２００年内，对６级地震具有一定的免疫性；在研究了唐山地震序列自身的衰减规律后，认为在今后几十几强余震的最大活动水平为５级，发生６级以上土地震的可能性很小。     

广东省强震观测的现状与展望

介绍了国内外以及广东省强震观测的历史现状，以大量的事实、数据说明广东省强震观测工作过去的辉煌和目前的落后状况，提出了我省今后开展强震工作的设想，特别指出要改变以前强震仪除被动等待强地震外就无所作为的情况，扩展用途，增加显示度，为用户着想。     

北天山强震活动特征及对未来强震三要素的分析

北天山带具有强烈新构造活动的背景,分析地震历史资料还可看出,强震活动具有明显的韵律特征。本文对北天山强震活动特征作了分析,并探对了未来强震活动三要素问题。     

甘,宁,青地区强震活动形势分析

我国西北的甘、宁、青地区是强震活动十分突出的地区之一,历史上曾发生多次8级以上地震。但在1966—1976年我国大陆上一个地震活动高潮中该区却十分平静,预测在下一强震活动幕中西北地区可能成为强震的主体活动地区。北西向构造可能是强震发生的主要场所,强震发生于大震破裂区闭锁段上的可能性较大。1977年以来上述地区出现的中强地震活动增强和呈带分布已构成强震发生的背景异常,应密切注意该地区中小地震活动图象的变化。     

临汾强震真存在300年周期吗

从历史强震时间分布特征入手，分析了临汾强震３００年周期说法的来由，指出这种说法的片面性。     

北天山带未来强震活动时段的探讨

用周期图分析法,总结北天山地震带自1889年以来强震活动的规律,推测下一次强震活动的时间。通过5次后验表明,所用的数学模型能较好地反映研究区域历史地震活动的规律。     

中国大陆主要强震断裂带超长地震活动期的划分和对比

根据古地震和历史地震研究了强震断裂带－阿尔金带、祁连山带、阿尼玛卿山带、鲜水河带、金沙江－红河带和汾渭带的地震活动。划分了超长地震活动期。     

1995年5月27日俄罗斯萨哈林岛强烈地震概况

１９９５年５月２７日俄罗斯远东地区萨哈林岛发生７．５级强烈地震，造成生命和财产的严重损失，这是俄罗斯历史上受灾最严重的一次地震。本文概述了这次地震的情况，内容包括：震源参数，震灾情况，救援情况，地震成因和地震趋势，以及俄罗斯的地震研究情况等。     

朝鲜史料记载的中国地震

整理和讨论了朝鲜王朝时期(1392 ～1910年)主要历史文献《朝鲜王朝实录》、《承政院日记》和《日省录》中有关中国地震的史料.新增1483年12月30日(明成化十九年十二月初一)北京地震和1810年黑龙江省宁古塔(宁安)地震.提出清康熙二十四年乙丑春(1685年)北京顺义地震的佐证.     

First historical evidence of a significant Mt. Etna eruption in 1224

The 1224 Mt. Etna eruption is a significant event both in terms of the mass of erupted materials and because it involved the lower eastern slope of the volcano, reaching down to the sea. Nevertheless, it is unknown to current historical catalogues. According to the historical sources, only two other lava flows actually reached as far as the sea: in 396 BC, just north of the present-day inhabited area of Acireale, according to the geological data alone, and in 1669, when the lava covered the south-eastern flank of Mt. Etna and damaged Catania. We present and discuss the two medieval sources that attest to the eruption of 1224 and make available the original texts. Furthermore, through the close analysis of the historical and topographic context of the Etna area, taking account of the roads and ports in the early 13th century, we have tried to single out the possible area of the lava's outlet into the sea in 1224 on historical grounds. A repeat of an eruption similar to that of 1224 would have a serious impact today as the coast is densely populated.     

The large earthquake of 8 August 1303 in Crete: seismic scenario and tsunami in the Mediterranean area

By conducting a historical review of this large seismic event in the Mediterranean, it has been possible to identify both the epicentral area and the area in which its effects were principally felt. Ever since the nineteenth century, the seismological tradition has offered a variety of partial interpretations of the earthquake, depending on whether the main sources used were Arabic, Greek or Latin texts. Our systematic research has involved the analysis not only of Arab, Byzantine and Italian chronicle sources, but also and in particular of a large number of never previously used official and public authority documents, preserved in Venice in the State Archive, in the Marciana National Library and in the Library of the Museo Civico Correr. As a result, it has been possible to establish not only chronological parameters for the earthquake (they were previously uncertain) but also its overall effects (epicentral area in Crete, Imax XI MCS). Sources containing information in 41 affected localities and areas were identified. The earthquake also gave rise to a large tsunami, which scholars have seen as having certain interesting elements in common with that of 21 July 365, whose epicentre was also in Crete. As regards methodology, this research made it clear that knowledge of large historical earthquakes in the Mediterranean is dependent upon developing specialised research and going beyond the territorial limits of current national catalogues.     

公元前179年“齐楚地震”考证与发震构造讨论

对公元前179年(汉文帝前元元年)"齐楚地震"的基本参数一直有不同认识,属于疑难历史地震。在吸收西汉政区研究成果的基础上,深入分析了地震史料隐含的约束条件,对这次地震震中位置进行了考证。提出了以齐楚边界和国都连线为基点,结合史料给出的有关约束条件,综合确定震中位置的技术方案。同时,依据地震地质调查成果,从发震构造角度论证了震中位置的合理性。1)鉴于西汉时期政权更迭频繁,通过追踪西汉初期(尤其是汉文帝前元元年前后)齐、楚政区变化情况,尽力复原当时的行政区划和齐楚两国边界分布。2)认真分析史料记载的"齐楚地震,二十九山同日崩,大水溃出"所指示的地区范围,对比历史上其他震例造成的破坏现象的空间分布以及破坏程度,为震中位置和震级确定提供重要约束条件。经文献考证认为,这次地震可定为公元前179年6月6日平邑南(35.2°N,117.6°E)7级地震。3)结合卫星影像判读和野外地震地质调查资料,分析研究了"齐楚地震"所在地区的地质构造特点和活动断裂发育情况。在排除该地震事件属于郯庐断裂带地震事件后,通过对比分析郯庐断裂带西侧发育的各条NW向断裂的构造地貌以及剖面表现,认为苍尼断裂可能是"齐楚地震"的发震断裂。在震中附近,苍尼断裂控制着白彦断陷盆地的发育,也是断层地貌最为清楚的地方,断错的地层最新,断层运动量也最大。     

Revising macroseismic data in Switzerland: The December 20, 1720 earthquake in the region of Lake Constance

Upgrading the Earthquake Catalog of Switzerland (ECOS) included revising the earthquake of 1720. This change has major importance for history and seismology.Although that quake has been the subject of several publications, none was based on critical methods. This re-evaluation of the event is built upon a new and more reliable database established after investigating archives and libraries. Using data from such historical sources, we assigned new site intensities, adopting the criteria established by the European macroseismic scale EMS 98 (Grünthal, 1998).We discovered that the event had been assigned an overestimated intensity, due to interpretation errors in former earthquake catalogs and compilations. We recommend reducing the intensity from I₀= VIII to I₀= VI (EMS 98). The moment magnitude is given as M_W= 4.6. Since the event had been considered the largest for its respective area, downgrading it now will influence the seismic hazard assessment for this region.     

Historical seismicity of South China from European sources：example of the Hong Kong Newspaper Press

ＨｉｓｔｏｒｉｃａｌｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｉｔｙｏｆＳｏｕｔｈＣｈｉｎａｆｒｏｍＥｕｒｏｐｅａｎｓｏｕｒｃｅｓ：ｅｘａｍｐｌｅｏｆｔｈｅＨｏｎｇＫｏｎｇＮｅｗｓｐａｐｅｒＰｒｅｓｓＲ．Ｍ．Ｗ．ＭＵＳＳＯＮ（ＢｒｉｔｉｓｈＧｅｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌＳｕｒｖｅｙ，Ｗｅ...     

我国大陆5个地区历史地震资料记载的完整性分析与比较

从历史地震资料记载点数量的变化情况入手研究了中国大陆5个地区的历史地震资料记载的完整性,结果表明由于明朝以后地方志的发展历史地震资料才趋于完整。     

Combining historical and process perspectives to infer ranges of geomorphic variability and inform river restoration in a wandering gravel‐bed river

Restoration approaches such as dam removal and channel reconstruction have moved beyond the realm of small streams and are being applied to larger rivers. This development has substantial economic and ecological implications but may test gaps in our understanding of larger river systems and of restoration science. We examine how information about historical ranges of geomorphic variability can inform stream restoration in the context of the Clark Fork River, Montana, focusing on a study reach where one of the largest restoration projects to date was implemented, upstream of the recently removed Milltown Dam. Analysis of historical sources and aerial photographs of the Clark Fork River's pre‐mining, mining, and more recent history suggest that a wandering channel pattern has persisted despite variations in sediment supply and transport capacity. Predictive metrics for channel pattern also suggest a wandering pattern, transitional between braided and meandering, in this geomorphic setting. These analyses suggest that the creation of a single‐thread meandering channel, which incorporates structures to limit erosion and channel movement, is inconsistent with the historical range of variability in this reach. The perils of restoring channels to a condition different than the historical range of variability for their geomorphic setting were illustrated on the Clark Fork by flood‐induced avulsions of the restored channel that occurred soon after project construction. Application of an experimental approach to restoration, founded on the method of multiple working hypotheses, provides a means for embracing uncertainty, can maximize the potential for site‐specific restoration success, and can foster advances in restoration science. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

138年金城-陇西63/4级地震的史料考证与发震构造背景探讨

对 138年金城 -陇西 6 3/4 级地震的历史资料考证、黄土滑坡分布及活动构造的综合研究表明 :在 138年地震中遭破坏的东汉金城郡郡治允吾县应在今青海省民和县马场垣乡下川口附近 ;陇西郡治狄道县在今甘肃省临洮县城。由此确定 138年地震的极震区位置大致在今甘肃省永靖县西北的湟水、黄河交汇地带。该区也是黄土滑坡密集分布区 ,其中的大型滑坡应为地震滑坡。在构造上该区位于拉脊山北缘弧形逆冲断裂带的前缘。拉脊山北缘断裂带为一条晚更新世活动断裂 ,部分地段为全新世活动 ,其向NE方向的逆冲推覆致使古近系泥岩和早更新世砾岩等发生了明显的挤压褶皱变形。石油勘探资料也证实拉脊山北缘弧形构造带前缘在深部存在隐伏的挤压逆冲断褶带。由此推断 138年金城 -陇西 6 3/4 级地震的发生很可能与该逆断裂 -褶皱带的新活动有关     

历史有感地震处理的原则与方法

对不同时期、不同地区的‘地大震’、‘地震’、‘地微震’的处理原则提出一些看法,并对历史有感地震参数估定方法做了探讨。