算法复杂性川滇地区11个地震带（区）地震预报的研究

以川滇地区１１个地震带（区）为对象，研究了将算法复杂性Ｃ（ｎ）用地地震预报的可能性。文中以１ａ为时间窗，０．５ａ为滑动步长，按２．５＜Ｍ＜３．５＜，３．５＜Ｍ＜４．５和Ｍ＞４．５分成３档，将各地震带（区）地震序列转换成由３种符号组成的字符串，从而计算各地震带（区）算法复杂性Ｃ（ｎ）随时间变化曲线，规定了预报和预报规则，总体上取得了略高于随机瞎报的预报效果，显示了效算法复性用于地震预报研究有一定的前     

模式识别在强余震等早期综合判别中的应用研究

本文利用所收集到的２９个６级以上地震序列，探讨将模式识别ＣＯＲＡ－３算法用于５级以上强余震或震群或再发生更大地震的前震－主震－余震型地震序列早期综合判断的可能性及具体方法。文中参与学习和训练的２５个地震序列中，８个Ｉ类序列全部被正确识别，１７个ＩＩ类序列中有１６个被正确识别，只有１个被误判为Ｉ类，预报评分Ｖ值达０．９２。对于留作外推的４个地震序列中，２个ＩＩ类序列全部被正确识别，２个Ｉ类序列，１个     

川滇地区各地震带容量维,信息维的变化率与地震短期预报的研究

本文利用川滇地区１１个地震带（区）的资料，以一年为时间窗，半年为滑动步长，计算容量维Ｄ０，信息维Ｄ１随时间变化曲线，并以其相邻半年Ｄ０和Ｄ１的差分△Ｄ０和△Ｄ１，探讨预测下一个半年内本带发生５级以上地震的可能性，总的说来，可以得到不同于随机预报的预报评分Ｒ值，说明利用容量维、信息维的变化率探讨地震短期预报有一定前景。     

青海东北部中强地震序列类型及特征研究

１９７０～１９９９年青海东北部发生Ｍｓ≥５．０地震序列２２个。通过分析发现,主一余型地震序列９个,约占序列占总数的４１％,孤立型序列８个,约占序列总数的３６％,前－主－余型序列３个,约占序列总数的１３％,双震（前－双主－余）型序列２个,约占序列总数的１０％。这些序列分属３个不同的地震带,地震的频率,强度及序列类型在各个地震带表现不一,各具犍色,此外还分析了序列早期（０．５、１、２、３、４、５、７天）及全序列的特征参数ｂ值、ｕ值、ｈ值、ρ值的变化过程,认为ｂ值和ｕ值的变化对该地区震序列类型的早期判断有一定参考价值。     

灰色系统方法在地震预报中的应用

本文利用灰色系统理论中的ＧＭ（１，１）建模法，以南北地震带不同内地域不同震级层次地震的发生时间为样本，建立了１３个预测模型，用于对未来地震的发生时间进行预报。利用其中关于５．０≤Ｍ≤５．９地震的模型较为准确地预报了１９８９年１１月宁夏固原５．０级地震的发生时间。     

丽江7.0级地震预报判据及地震学主要异常

介绍了丽江７．０级地震裂度、地震地质及中、短、临预报简况。中、短期预报准确，短临预报向云南省政府打了招呼。重点讨论中短期预报中使用的主要地震学判据。指出丽江７．０级地震前，中甸一下关地震带６级地震时间间隔已达１９ａ，超过历史极限。该带北段１９８３－１９９３年１０ａ内无Ｍ≥５地震；震中周围形成一长约１５０ｋｍ空段，１９９０－１９９５年６ａ内震源区Ｍ≥３．５地震出现平静异常。总之，震源周围地区小震及中     

C（n）及其在异常震群判别研究中应用的初步尝试

本文引入算法复杂性度量Ｃ（ｎ）判别震群活动是否具有前兆意义。选取１９７１－１９９３年间３．２≤Ｍｍａ≤ｘ５．０，Ｎ≥１２的震群序列，用１０小时段，五种震级状态计算Ｃ（ｎ），发现当Ｃ（ｎ）≥８时，与其后１６４天内四川及西南部周边附近５级以上强震相关。Ｒ评分具有９７．５％置信水平。同时，分析、比较了Ｃ（ｎ）与参数ｂ、Ｋ、Ｕ、Ｈ的预报能力，认为Ｃ（ｎ）有一定的预报效能且高于Ｈ、Ｕ和Ｋ。     

地震发生的时间序列分析

应用时间序列分析法，分别对陕西地区和汾渭地震带地震发生的时间和强度进行了预测。得到：陕西地区１９９３年发生地震的最大震级为ＭＬ＝３．５级；汾渭地震带可能会在未来几年内发生５．５级以上地震．     

大同－阳高地震的余震窗口

对大同－阳高６．１级中强震群余震序列频度的起伏变化进行了分析，认为该序列的频度变化是汾渭地震带３７°以北地区地震活动的“窗口”。其预报能力Ｒ值评分为０．６３。     

中强以上地震发生后半年内地震趋势的模糊聚类分析

利用１次中强以上地震（Ｍ０≥４．７）发生后前６天地震序列的资料，对未来半年内是否可能发生相当（Ｍ＝Ｍ０±０．３）或更大的地震进行模糊聚类分析．根据３６个初选问题的Ｗａｌｌｅｎ评分，精选出１３项能突出表现地震序列的特征参数作为指标．应用模糊聚类的ＦＣＭ算法对地震序列进行分类，Ⅰ类为Ｍ０级中强震后６个月内还有震级为Ｍ≥Ｍ０－０．３级的地震发生；Ⅱ类为Ｍ０级中强震后６个月内无相当或更大的地震。以中国大陆地区１９６６年以来的４８次Ｍ０≥４．７级中强震序列资料建立震后判别模型，然后对近期发生的８次强震序列进行了外推检验。     

Global Change and Health — The Good, The Bad and The Evidence

Debates over the merits and demerits of globalisation for health are increasingly polarised. Conclusions range from globalisation being essentially positive for health, albeit with a need to smooth out some rough edges, to one of utter condemnation, with adverse effects on the majority of the world's population. Anyone wading into this debate is immediately confronted by seemingly irreconcilable differences in ideology, opinion and interests. Both camps agree that global changes are occurring, and with them many of the determinants of population health status. While some skepticism persists about whether “globalisation” has value beyond being a fashionable buzzword, most agree that we need better understanding of these changes. Two difficult questions arise: (i) What are the health impacts of these changes; and (ii) how can we respond more effectively to them? To move beyond the stand-offs that have already formed within the health community, this paper reviews the main empirical evidence that currently exists, summarises key points of debate that remain, and suggests some ways forward for the research and policy communities. In particular, there is need for an informed and inclusive debate about the positive and negative health consequences of globalisation.     

The fourth order geomagnetic multipole: The sedecimupole

Summary The nine coefficients of fourth order spherical harmonic functions in the expression for the potential of the main geomagnetic field are used to derive the nine parameters of a fourth order multipole. These nine parameters consist of the strength of the multipole, and four unit vectors or axes. The points of intersection of the axes with the surface of the Earth are called poles. Although movements of the poles over the period 1829 to 1965 are masked by random errors in the spherical harmonic coefficients, all of the axes show eastward components of drift since 1829, but two have drifted westward in later years to return almost to their initial 1829 positions. The strength of the fourth order multipole has shown a general increase, amounting to some 30 per cent of the 1829 value.     

四川地震震级与烈度区面积和震源深度的关系

本文按照地震地质分区,同时考虑7级以上地震的空间分布特征,分四川为鲜水河、松潘—龙门山及马边地震带等几个区带,对四川1900年以来既有仪器测定参数、又有宏观烈度考查的33个地震资料,应用多元线性回归分析方法,统计拟合出了震级与不同烈度区面积、烈度值、震源深度之间的多组关系式,其一般形式为:■相关系数R大都在0.90左右,用部分地震检验的结果表明,震级误差一般小于0.3,震源深度误差一般小于5公里,基本消除了离散情况,笔者用求得的关系式对1900年以前的有三条以上等震线的部分历史地震的震级、震源深度进行了标定,结果也比较令人满意。     

The fifth order geomagnetic multipole: The duotrigintupole

Summary The notion of a dipole is generalized to the case of the fifth order spherical harmonic coefficients of the geomagnetic potential. The corresponding five axes and fifth order multipole strength are computed for ten epochs in the interval 1845 to 1965.     

The Moon

Recent geochemical and geophysical data from the Moon enable a revision of earlier interpretations regarding lunar origin, structure and bulk composition. Earth and Moon show many similarities among their isotopic compositions, but they have evolved in totally dissimilar ways, probably related to the deficiency of water and volatile elements in the Moon as well as the vast differences in size and internal pressure. Some global geochemical differences from the Earth such as volatile depletion based on K/U ratios have been established. However, all current lunar samples come from differentiated regions, making the establishment of a bulk composition more reliant on bulk geophysical properties or isotopic similarities; it remains unclear how the latter arose or relate to whole Moon composition. The lack of fractionation effects among the refractory and super-refractory elements indicates that the proto-lunar material seems unlikely to have been vaporized while the presence of volatile elements may place lower limits on proto-lunar temperatures. The apparent lack of geochemical evidence of an impacting body enables other possible impactors, such as comets, to be considered. Although the origin of the Moon remains currently unknown, it is generally believed that the Moon originated as the result of a giant impact on the Earth.     

The mesosphere

The mesosphere, which extends from about 50 to 90 km altitude, is an atmospheric region characterized by a negative gradient of solar energy absorption, and thus, temperature. Although the distribution of most minor constituents is dominated by photochemistry, vertical transport does have a pronounced effect on many of them. Hence, we discuss the basic dynamic principles and their application to the important mesopheric motions: acoustic-gravity waves, tides, planetary scale waves, and eddy motions.The most important minor electrically neutral constituents are compounds of oxygen, hydrogen and nitrogen. In fact, the allotropes of oxygen are in many ways the most significant because they screen out solar ultraviolet radiation and provide the principal source of mesospheric heating (absorption of solar UV by O₂ and ozone). We also discuss oxides of nitrogen and hydrogen which strongly influence the balance of odd oxygen (O and O₃). Brief discussions of the chemistry of carbon compounds and of excited species are also included.The chemistry of ionic species present in the mesosphere is very important because it strongly influences the propagationand absorption of radio waves. Because of ion clustering and negative-ion formation, such chemistry is extremely complex, and it is only very recently that we have begun to understand it. The current state of knowledge is discussed in some detail. The principles involved in constructing models for predicting the distribution of minor constituents, both neutral and ionic, are presented.     

用模式识别方法估计水库诱发地震危险性

水库蓄水后可能诱发的地震危险性估计是工程地震工作中的一项重要环节,其中可能诱发的地震强度是人们特别关注的要素。本文基于国内外41个水库地震震例,从目前对水库地震形成机理的认识水平出发,提取了15个可能的诱震指标,应用模式识别的一些方法对水库蓄水后的诱发地震危险性进行复因子评估,通过内符检验讨论了这些方法在水库诱发地震危险性上的估计效能,给出了其错误概率估计值,结果表明,这些方法能够相对客观和合理地评定水库蓄水后可能诱发的地震危险性水平大小,在工程上具有一定应用价值。     

三峡工程对坝下长江流量影响研究

根据长江水情的具体特点,采用Ｐｒｅｉｓｍａｎｎ隐式格式,建立了一个描述长江情的水动力学数值模式。以最佳拟合历史水文资料,重演历史水文过程为原则,率定数值模式中的各参数;并运行率定后的模式,进行三峡工程对坝下长江若干断面处流量影响的模拟预测。     

大同市地裂缝三维断层形变测量值与辅助温度的相关分析

简要介绍同车公司地裂缝观测站情况,以2013年至2016年数字化改造后的观测数据为基础,结合仪器工作原理,分析三维断层形变测量仪测值与观测仪两端辅助温度测值的关系。结果表明,地裂缝三维断层形变观测中,垂直向DFG观测受地裂缝两端辅助温度影响较显著,地裂缝垂直形变变化是热形变效应和断层运动信息的综合反映。