民航京沪穗数值预报系统在广州的本地化试验

为了调整优化基于WRF模式的民航京沪穗数值预报系统在广州本地的预报效果,使用3组不同的物理参数化方案和资料同化方案组合,对发生在2011年10月13日~14日广东地区的暴雨过程进行模拟。降水预报结果显示不同物理参数化方案和资料同化方案对降水预报有较大的影响,使用香港城市大学大气研究实验室实时预报系统推荐的参数化方案的降水预报好于加拿大温哥华地区业务运行的参数化方案,使用香港的方案,不同化自动站资料的预报效果好于同化自动站资料。而环流形势场、相对湿度场、水汽通量场和CAPE指数场对不同参数化方案的敏感性要小于降水场,另外还分析了系统连续15天预报结果。最终结果表明,不论是降水场还是形势场,使用香港城市大学的方案并且不同化自动站资料的评分优于其他2种方案,可以作为广州本地业务方案使用。     

一次川东暴雨的雷达资料同化试验与诊断分析

为了对大尺度暴雨天气过程的雷达资料四维变分同化效果进行验证,选取2013年6月29日至7月2日发生在川东遂宁地区的一次暴雨天气过程,使用WRF中尺度模式进行雷达资料的同化模拟试验,并使用模式输出进行诊断分析。结果表明,高时空分辨率的雷达资料使短时间窗口的四维变分同化成为可能。同化结果能很好地改善由地形和初始场误差等因素带来的模拟缺陷,模拟输出场能完整再现整个暴雨的发生发展过程。副高西南侧低空急流带来的海上水汽与南亚季风自南向北带来的水汽共同构成了本次过程稳定的水汽供应通道。中β尺度涡旋的不断生消交替形成了该次暴雨过程的3次降水阶段。垂直方向不稳定能量的快速累积,缓慢释放以及垂直方向强的水汽输送交换,是造成该次过程降水时间长,量级大的主要原因。     

FY-3A卫星MWHS资料同化及四川盆地暴雨数值模拟分析

为研究中国FY-3A(风云三号A卫星)资料在数值模式中对暴雨模拟的作用,以2012年07月03日发生在四川盆地的一次暴雨过程为个例。利用WRF(V3.3)模式和三维变分同化系统WRF-3DVAR,对FY-3A的MWHS(微波湿度计)资料进行同化试验研究。研究结果表明:同化MWHS资料后,相比控制试验,(1)同化方案A在降水区出现+3K的正增量中心和+10%的正增量湿中心,改善了大气能量场和湿度场信息;(2)同化方案A提高了降水区垂直速度和涡度场的数值和分布位置,并较好的刻画出风场的辐合辐散区域和水汽通量高值中心,准确模拟出水汽通量的中心位置;(3)对此次暴雨个例试验研究,在中东部、东北部主降水区,同化方案A模拟降水区分布形式较好,尤其是降水强度得到较大提高降水值达230mm,非常接近实况降水值(227mm),同化MWHS资料可以较好提高WRF模式降水预报能力。     

连续台风时期香港区域的水汽变化分析

利用香港卫星定位参考站网GNSS观测数据,提取强热带风暴"塔拉斯"与热带风暴"洛克"影响期间各测站天顶方向对流层延迟,反演香港区域大气可降水量;根据香港区域49个天文台气象站提供的实测降雨量数据,分析大气可降水量与实际降雨量的相关性,以及两次台风对香港区域水汽时空分布的不同影响。结果表明,大气可降水量在台风影响前期均上升,在大量降雨后回落,但在连续台风的间歇期间,仍高于台风来临前的水平;水汽累积是大量降雨的前提条件,当水汽累积量相近时,水汽累积时长与累积降雨量呈正相关;台风期间大气可降水量值超过65 mm的区域面积与台风等级相关,台风路径对局部水汽分布有一定的影响。     

台风“麦莎”移动过程中水汽输送特征

利用NCEP1°×1°的再分析资料,用大尺度水汽通量流函数和速度势以及水汽收支对台风“麦莎”在移动过程中水汽输送流函数和速度势进行了分析。结果表明：台风“麦沙”在北上过程中,主要有2支水汽通道,一支是从太平洋开始向西经赤道到达印度洋,在索马里转向,经过孟家加拉湾呈西南气流向西北方向输送;另一支来自副高南侧偏东气流。计算分析还表明,用无辐散风流场来定台风中心要比用总的流场更精确。     

基于RTTOV模式的大气二氧化碳反演参数敏感性分析

大气二氧化碳是开展全球气候变化和碳循环研究的关键数据。卫星遥感技术与模式模拟相结合的反演方法已成为获取该数据的重要手段,但模式输入参数本身的误差会对大气二氧化碳反演精度产生影响,须在反演算法设计中加以关注。本文利用RTTOV10快速辐射传输模式模拟Aqua/AIRS红外探测仪17个大气二氧化碳反演通道,计算了这些通道上大气顶出射辐射对温度廓线、臭氧廓线、水汽廓线、地表温度和地表发射率的参数误差的不确定性,并与二氧化碳增加0.5%时造成的不确定性进行对比,分析二氧化碳对上述参数误差的敏感性。结果表明,温度廓线误差是干扰AIRS大气二氧化碳反演的主要因素,其次是臭氧廓线误差,而水汽廓线、地表温度和地表发射率的误差对二氧化碳反演的影响在除去个别通道后可忽略不计。最后,本文以通道为单位,确定了各通道上的高敏感参数、敏感参数和不敏感参数,为二氧化碳反演通道的选择和反演算法的设计提供了参考。     

风廓线雷达资料在降水数值预报中的应用探讨

风场是水汽输送的主要动力,也是影响降水数值预报的重要因子。针对目前常规探空测风的分辨率不高、资料获取时间长、不能及时反映风场中小尺度变化的不足,以及在数值预报中应用受限的问题,采用同化风廓线雷达资料的方法,分析高分辨率的单点风场数据对初始场和预报场的作用。结果表明,把单点风廓线雷达资料在WRF模式中同化是可行的。同化后对风廓线雷达站点初始场的风场、湿度场改善明显,对站点周围一定范围内的流场也有不同程度的影响。同时降水强度和落区的预报结果也有不同程度的改善,尤其是风廓线雷达站下风方向比未同化前更接近实况,在其他方向上距离雷达越近改善效果越明显。另外,同化风廓线资料后,模式预报的涡度散度分布和水汽输送场也有不同程度的改善。     

基于FFT和小波变换的台风天气GNSSZTD周期特征分析北大核心CSCD

利用中国内地构造环境监测网络GNSS观测数据,结合台风事件资料,开展台风事件对中国内地地区水汽变化周期影响研究。分析发现,在台风影响下,GNSS天顶对流层延迟(zenith tropospheric delay,ZTD)水汽变化周期与正常天气相比会缩短,同时降水增加。通过与降雨进行对比发现,台风过程中降雨发生之前ZTD会发生较为剧烈的变化,并保持在一个峰值。通过选取台风中心不同距离的GNSS站点进行对比分析发现,台风最先经过的区域站点ZTD产生波动要比之后经过的站点早,且台风先经过区域的降水量比后经过区域的降水量大。本文研究可为台风轨迹预报和气象部门的台风灾害及极端降水等预警提供参考。     

基于中分辨率成像光谱仪数据的洋面云检测新方法的研究

提出了一种利用中分辨率成像光谱仪热红外窗区通道数据进行云、晴空分离的新方法。该云检测算法从热红外窗区通道亮温出发,并结合水汽廓线,运用水汽规度法计算规度因子的值,利用规度因子的数值状态实现分离云和晴空,从而达到云检测的目的。经过大量的实验,并将结果与中分辨率成像光谱仪官方云检测产品作对比分析,结果表明准确率为91％,算法具有可行性。     

MODIS红外水汽校正及其在InSAR大气改正中的应用

提出使用差分线性校正模型(DLCM)对MODIS红外波段大气水汽产品进行校正。利用在中国获取的两幅MODIS红外波段水汽产品进行分析后发现,在中国西部地区,受水汽参考值精度较差的影响,DLCM模型和传统线性校正(LS)方法均难以获得稳定、理想的校正结果;而在中国东部地区,DLCM模型可有效提高大气水汽的估计精度,且与LS方法相比,进行内符合精度评定时STD和RMS可以额外降低32.6%和15.7%,进行外符合精度评定时STD和RMS可额外降低32.3%和21.7%。此外,DLCM模型校正后的MODIS红外水汽产品在InSAR大气改正中的实验研究,亦证实了DLCM模型的有效性和将其用于InSAR大气改正的可行性。     

Numerical Simulation and Analysis of Storm Surges Under Different Extreme Weather Event and Typhoon Experiments in the South Yellow Sea

In this study,a coupled tide-surge-wave model was developed and applied to the South Yellow Sea.The coupled model simulated the evolution of storm surges and waves caused by extreme weather events,such as tropical cyclones,cold waves,extratropical cyclones coupled with a cold wave,and tropical cyclones coupled with a cold wave.The modeled surge level and significant wave height matched the measured data well.Simulation results of the typhoon with different intensities revealed that the radius to the maximum wind speed of a typhoon with 1.5 times wind speed decreased,and its influence range was farther away from the Jiangsu coastal region;moreover,the impact on surge levels was weakened.Thereafter,eight hypothetical typhoons based on Typhoon Chan-hom were designed to investigate the effects of varying typhoon tracks on the extreme value and spatial distribution of storm surges in the offshore area of Jiangsu Province.The typhoon along path 2 mainly affected the Rudong coast,and the topography of the Rudong coast was conducive to the increase in surge level.Therefore,the typhoon along path 2 induced the largest surge level,which reached up to 2.91 m in the radial sand ridge area.The maximum surge levels in the Haizhou Bay area and the middle straight coastline area reached up to 2.37 and 2.08 m,respectively.In terms of typhoons active in offshore areas,the radial sand ridge area was most likely to be threatened by typhoon-induced storm surges.     

用VB作50年台风路径资料检索与分析

介绍利用VisualBASIC可视化编程语言作 50年台风路径资料以及实时台风路径资料的检索与分析。包括台风路径资料检索程序的设计、多种路径资料的检索方法、相似路径检索方法和双台风路径检索方法等 ;利用所开发的程序框架 ,分析了若干个例的检索结果 ,如 4 8h内影响厦门市的台风路径高频中心在 19.5°N ,12 6.2°E等 ,对实际台风预报业务具有一定的参考价值     

Numerical Simulation of Typhoon Muifa(2011) Using a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport(COAWST) Modeling System

The newly developed Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport(COAWST) Modeling System is applied to investigate typhoon-ocean interactions in this study. The COAWST modeling system represents the state-of-the-art numerical simulation technique comprising several coupled models to study coastal and environmental processes. The modeling system is applied to simulate Typhoon Muifa(2011), which strengthened from a tropical storm to a super typhoon in the Northwestern Pacific, to explore the heat fluxes exchanged among the processes simulated using the atmosphere model WRF, ocean model ROMS and wave model SWAN. These three models adopted the same horizontal grid. Three numerical experiments with different coupling configurations are performed in order to investigate the impact of typhoon-ocean interaction on the intensity and ocean response to typhoon. The simulated typhoon tracks and intensities agree with observations. Comparisons of the simulated variables with available atmospheric and oceanic observations show the good performance of using the coupled modeling system for simulating the ocean and atmosphere processes during a typhoon event. The fully coupled simulation that includes a ocean model identifies a decreased SST as a result of the typhoon-forced entrainment. Typhoon intensity and wind speed are reduced due to the decrease of the sea surface temperature when using a coupled ocean model. The experiments with ocean coupled to atmosphere also results in decreased sea surface heat flux and air temperature. The heat flux decreases by about 29% compared to the WRF only case. The reduction of the energy induced by SST decreases, resulting in weakening of the typhoon. Coupling of the waves to the atmosphere and ocean model induces a slight increase of SST in the typhoon center area with the ocean-atmosphere interaction increased as a result of wave feedback to atmosphere.     

Impact of sea spray on upper ocean temperature during typhoon passage: simulation with a 1-D turbulent model

At the interface between the lower atmosphere and sea surface, sea spray might significantly influence air-sea heat fluxes and subsequently, modulate upper ocean temperature during a typhoon passage. The effects of sea spray were introduced into the parameterization of sea surface roughness in a 1-D turbulent model, to investigate the effects of sea spray on upper ocean temperature in the Kuroshio Extension area, for the cases of two real typhoons from 2006, Yagi and Soulik. Model output was compared with data from the Kuroshio Extension Observatory (KEO), and Reynolds and AMSRE satellite remote sensing sea surface temperatures. The results indicate drag coefficients that include the spray effect are closer to observations than those without, and that sea spray can enhance the heat fluxes (especially latent heat flux) considerably during a typhoon passage. Consequently, the model results with heat fluxes enhanced by sea spray simulate better the cooling process of the SST and upper-layer temperature profiles. Additionally, results from the simulation of the passage of typhoon Soulik (that passed KEO quickly), which included the sea spray effect, were better than for the simulated passage of typhoon Yagi (that crossed KEO slowly). These promising 1-D results could provide insight into the application of sea spray in general circulation models for typhoon studies.     

An Elliptical Wind Field Model of Typhoons

1　Introduction　Thestormsurgeisoneofthemostimportantphe nomenathatendangerthecoastalengineeringfacili ties .Everyyearthereareabout 1 2tropicalcyclonesmakinglandfallatthemainlandofChinafromMaytoOctober (MuandTu ,2 0 0 0 ) .Whentheastronomictideishigh ,the…     

Tracking typhoon-generated swell in the western North Pacific Ocean using satellite altimetry

This paper proposes a scheme for detecting the swell decay of a moving typhoon. We considered a typhoon that was neither far from a point source nor had a belt-like homogenous source,as previously studied. We tracked the swell close to the source during a typhoon in the western North Pacific Ocean. We used wind speed and significant wave height data derived from the Geophysical Data Record of the Jason-1 altimeter and the best-track information of the typhoon from the China Meteorological Administration tropical cyclone database. We selected three specific cases to reveal the decay characteristics of the swell generated by a moving typhoon. Based on an altimeter-based typhoon swell identification scheme and the dispersion relationship for deep water,we relocated the swell source for each altimeter measurement. The subsequent statistical decay coefficient was comparable to previous studies,and effectively depicted the swell propagation conditions induced by the typhoon. We hope that our results provide a new understanding of the characteristics and wave energy budget of the North Pacific Ocean,and significantly contribute to wave modeling in this region.     

两种海浪模式对一次台风浪过程的模拟分析

以CCMP（Cross—Calibrated,Multi—Platfoml）风场为驱动场,分别驱动目前国际先进的第3代海浪模式ww3（WAVEWATCH—III）、SWAN（Simulating WAves Nearshore）,对2010年9月发生在东中国海的台风“圆规”所致的台风浪进行数值模拟,就台风浪的特征进行分析,并对比分析两个海浪模式的模拟效果。结果表明：1）以CCMP风场分别驱动WW3、SWAN海浪模式,可以较好地模拟发生在东中国海的台风浪,风向与波向保持了大体一致,波高与风速的分布特征保持了很好的一致性;2）综合相关系数、偏差、均方根误差、平均绝对误差来看,两个模式模拟的有效波高（SWH—Significant Wdve Height）都具有较高精度,SWAN模拟的SWH略低于观测值,WW3模拟的SWH与观测值更为接近;3）台风浪可给琉球群岛海域带来5m左右的大浪,台风浪进入东海后,波高、风速都有一定程度的增加,当台风沿西北路径穿越朝鲜半岛时,受到半岛地形的巨大影响,风速和波高都明显降低。     

The Characteristics of Storm Wave Behavior and Its Effect on Cage Culture Using the ADCIRC+SWAN Model in Houshui Bay,China

The current storm wave hazard assessment tends to rely on a statistical method using wave models and fewer historical data which do not consider the effects of tidal and storm surge.In this paper,the wave-current coupled model ADCIRC+SWAN was used to hindcast storm events in the last 30 years.We simulated storm wave on the basis of a large set of historical storms in the North-West Pacific Basin between 1985 and 2015 in Houshui Bay using the wave-current coupled model ADCIRC+SWAN to obtain the storm wave level maps.The results were used for the statistical analysis of the maximum significant wave heights in Houshui Bay and the behavior of wave associated with storm track.Comparisons made between observations and simulated results during typhoon Rammasun(2014)indicate agreement.In addition,results demonstrate that significant wave height in Houshui Bay is dominated by the storm wind velocity and the storm track.Two groups of synthetic storm tracks were designed to further investigate the worst case of typhoon scenarios.The storm wave analysis method developed for the Houshui Bay is significant in assisting government's decision-making in rational planning of deep sea net-cage culture.The method can be applied to other bays in the Hainan Island as well.     

1011号台风“凡亚比”粤西暴雨二次加强过程的分析

为了能够深入了解1011号台风"凡亚比"粤西暴雨过程发生发展机制,采用天气学诊断方法、Ncep1°×1°再分析资料和观测降水资料对凡亚比登陆后在广东西部地区造成的两次暴雨过程进行了研究。通过初步诊断分析得到以下结论:粤西暴雨二次增强的主要原因是强冷空气侵入和水汽输送增加,二次增强过程偏南风主导的水汽条件造成了暴雨增强。假相当位温的垂直剖面显示暴雨主要发生在等值线密集陡峭的区域,等值线的斜率增加对暴雨二次增强有指示作用。湿位涡在暴雨区为上正下负的垂直分布形式,对流层上层高值位涡向下传递,高层干冷空气与低层暖湿气流交汇促使降水增加。     

Assimilation of GMS-5 satellite winds using nudging method with MM5

With the aid of Meteorological Information Composite and Processing System （MICAPS）, satellite wind vectors derived from the Geostationary Meteorological Statellite-5 （GMS-5） and retrieved by National Satellite Meteorology Center of China （NSMC） can be obtained. Based on the nudging method built in the fifth-generation Mesoscale Model （MM5） of Pennsylvania State University and National Center for Atmospheric Research, a data preprocessor is developed to convert these satellite wind vectors to those with specified format required in MM5. To examine the data preprocessor and evaluate the impact of satellite winds from GMS-5 on MM5 simulations, a series of numerical experimental forecasts consisting of four typhoon cases in 2002 are designed and implemented. The results show that the preprocessor can process satellite winds smoothly and MM5 model runs successfully with a little extra computational load during ingesting these winds, and that assimilation of satellite winds by MM5 nudging method can obviously improve typhoon track forecast but contributes a little to typhoon intensity forecast. The impact of the satellite winds depends heavily upon whether the typhoon bogussing scheme in MM5 was turned on or not. The data preprocessor developed in this paper not only can treat GMS-5 satellite winds but also has capability with little modification to process derived winds from other geostationary satellites.