Towards an integrated management framework for emerging disaster risks in Japan

An integrated framework for disaster risk management is presented to cope with the risk of low-probability high-consequence (LPHC) disasters in urban communities. Since the 2000 Tokai flood in Japan, there has been a shift in the management strategy from disaster prevention with a presumed zero risk to disaster reduction with an acceptable risk. The framework consists of: (i) integration of a different categories of risk reduction options in terms of structural and nonstructural measures, regulation and market-oriented measures, (ii) strengthening of the capacity of local communities to make their own management choices for LPHC-type disaster risks, and (iii) promoting the participation of stakeholders throughout the entire cycle of risk management. The interdisciplinary framework is discussed with reference to lessons learned from two recent major flood disasters (the 2000 Tokai flood and the 2004 Niigata flood). To implement the goals of the integrated framework, a participatory platform for disaster risk communication called “Pafrics” has been developed. Preliminary results of the pilot study of participation and risk communication supported by Pafrics are presented.     

Irish peat slides 2006�C2010

The purpose of this paper is to present a review of peat landslide events in Ireland since 2003, when two significant events occurred. Since 2003, there have been at least 13 such events. Several of these events included more than one slide. It is also likely that there have been unrecorded slides. It seems that there is an increasing incidence of such events, but they seem to occur in clusters with intervening quiet periods. These clusters coincide with periods of intense rainfall. For many slides, at least two causal factors can be identified. Primarily these comprised intense rainfall but human activities such as road construction and peat cutting also contributed to the slides. Detailed geotechnical testing of the peat, including laboratory direct simple shear tests (DSS), is reported for two of the slides. Back-analysis of these two failures suggests that the mobilised strength of the material in the failure surface is similar to that measured in the DSS tests. However, conventional geotechnical analyses need to be treated with caution as they fail to account for the complex interactions in the sliding surface and in particular the lubricating role of water.     

Hot-topics and Prospects of Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction: Based on 2017 Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction in Cancun,Mexico

A brief introduction to the Fifth Session of Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction, which was held in Cancun, Mexico, organized by United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR) and hosted by the Government of Mexico from 22 May to 26 May 2017, was firstly provided. Combined with “Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030”, “Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development”, and related work on natural disaster risk reduction at global, regional, country and local scales, some hot-topics and prospects of global platform for disaster risk reduction were put forward. Some findings were concluded, consisting of understanding disaster risk, disaster risk governance, building and enhancing resilience to disasters, coherence between the Sendai Framework, the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA). Implementing the Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) through cross-sectoral collaboration, removing barriers and promoting public-private cooperation in DRR and other types of partnership among multi-stakeholders will become the main force pattern of DRR in the near future. Large-scale disaster risk governance caused by multi-hazards (disaster cluster), disaster chain and disaster compound will be the main trend in scientific research of DRR. Building regional disaster risk reduction platform (e.g. the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21^st-Century Maritime Silk Road) and sharing the technologies and information of disaster risk reduction will be the main contents of DRR practices. Building and optimization of institutional mechanisms on DRR will be the trend of DRR idea. Improving and enhancing the support to communities, vulnerable groups and locals on DRR will be the main trend in DRR achievements’ application and demonstration in China.     

我国大型岩土工程施工安全风险管理研究进展

在我国,以城市轨道交通、高速公路网建设、高速铁路网建设、重大水利工程建设等为代表的大型岩土工程具有尺度大、施工周期长、操作复杂和工程安全状况堪忧的特点。不同类型的安全事故持续不断,造成的经济损失和人员伤亡居高不下。概括总结了2010－2017年间我国大型岩土工程施工安全风险管理研究方面的主要进展,包括：（1）大型岩土工程施工安全风险管理重大科技项目、成果奖励、规范;（2）大型岩土工程施工安全风险分析与评估方法方面研究进展;（3）大型岩土工程施工安全风险监控与预警方面研究进展;（4）大型岩土工程施工安全风险管理信息化技术与平台方面研究进展;（5）大型岩土工程施工安全风险智能化分析与控制方面研究进展。基于我国大型岩土工程施工安全风险管理研究方面主要进展的分析,提出了我国大型岩土工程施工安全风险管理方面面临的新挑战：（1）定量化风险评估理论和技术的应用推广;（2）风险决策理论;（3）推行全过程安全风险管理计划;（4）构建岩土工程安全事故案例共享平台;（5）基于大数据挖掘技术的岩土工程参数分析与控制;（6）智慧岩土工程研究和建设。     

基于AHP和模糊综合评判的TBM施工风险评估

岩石隧洞建设中面临很大和众多的风险,利用TBM施工的深埋长隧洞受多种不确定因素影响,具有随机性和模糊性,目前的研究方法难以对其进行准确定量分析。通过深入分析影响TBM施工的风险因素,建立了TBM施工风险综合评价指标体系。基于风险影响因素的层次性,提出了TBM施工风险二级模糊综合评判计算模型,并利用层次分析法(AHP)确定各级因素权重,利用模糊集法确定隶属函数,划分了风险接受等级。以南水北调西线工程深埋长隧洞TBM施工为例,应用二级模糊综合评判计算模型对该工程TBM施工风险进行分析,计算结果表明,该方法是合理性实用的。其理论、方法、思路和结论可供同类工程借鉴。     

Planning for Tsunami: Reducing Future Losses Through Mitigation

The National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program is a multi-faceted approach that encompasses tsunami identification, alert and warning systems and a comprehensive approach to tsunami risk reduction. This paper describes efforts to promote land use planning and development practices that reduce tsunami risk by local elected government and administrative officials. Seven Principles of Tsunami Risk Reduction are presented that range from risk assessment to site planning criteria.Regional Administrator, California Governors Office of Emergency Services and Manager, California Integrated Seismic Network, Earthquake and Tsunami Program     

甘肃省白龙江流域降雨型潜在泥石流危险性预报模型

【研究目的】泥石流灾害是白龙江流域分布广泛并常引起群死群伤的重大地质灾害,准确评价泥石流活动规模及其危险度,是泥石流危险性预警预报的前提,合理构建危险性预报模型是泥石流防灾减灾的关键。【研究方法】本文以研究区历史泥石流案例和对应降雨资料为基础数据,采用统计分析方法,通过分析形成泥石流关键地质环境条件及其相互关系,构建了白龙江流域潜在泥石流危险度定量评价模型,提出了两类泥石流危险级别临界判别模式。【研究结果】结果表明：（1）以泥石流活动规模、沟床平均比降、流域切割密度、不稳定沟床比例为判断因子的泥石流危险度动态定量计算模型,能快速准确预测未来不同工程情景和降雨频率工况下泥石流危险度;（2）影响降雨型泥石流发生的地形条件由流域面积、10°~40°斜坡坡度面积比、沟床平均纵比降等组成,降雨条件主要由泥石流爆发前的24 h累积降雨量、触发泥石流1 h降雨量或10 min降雨量等组成;（3）依据30条典型泥石流沟危险度计算结果,获得泥石流危险性临界判别值,提出了降雨型潜在泥石流危险性1 h预报模型（Ⅰ类）和10 min预报模型（Ⅱ类）,其中Ⅰ类模型高危险度以上泥石流预测精度大于87.5%,Ⅱ类模型中等危险度以上泥石流预测精度大于80%,而两类预报模型验证准确率为83.3%。【结论】研究成果为泥石流精准预警预报提供了技术支撑,对建立中小尺度泥石流实时化预警系统具有一定参考意义。创新点：通过确定与泥石流相对应关键地质环境因子,构建了泥石流危险度动态定量评价模型,依据泥石流危险性1 h和10 min临界判别模式可准确实现潜在泥石流预警预报。     

基于危险度区划的县级区域降雨引发滑坡的风险预警方法——以四川省米易县降雨滑坡为例

降雨滑坡预警在世界上开展广泛,但对小区域的降雨滑坡风险进行预警尚不多见。以通用的风险定义为基础,首先对目标区域——四川省米易县的地质灾害进行调查,以典型滑坡进行反演,获得灾害的本底因素,按贡献率权重叠加法进行危险度分区;通过对承灾体的调查确定承灾对象,并将各承灾对象按密度由行政界限向1km×1km的网格单元转化后叠加形成易损度分区。二者相乘完成风险分区。对研究区域近5年逐日降雨数据与172条地质灾害记录进行分析,按前期日降雨量模型得到降雨阈值,根据滑坡空间概率和降雨引发滑坡的时间概率叠加的结果,得到研究区域的降雨滑坡概率,对照风险分区,完成风险预警。     

基于降雨响应的黄土丘陵区滑坡危险性预测研究——以宝鸡市麟游县为例

极端降雨易造成群发滑坡灾害,难以作为单体预测.为预测评估黄土丘陵区不同降雨强度诱发滑坡灾害危险性,论文在区域滑坡灾害特征研究的基础上,分析降雨强度特征及滑坡分布特征.以岭南滑坡为代表分析降雨诱发黄土-丘陵区滑坡的形成机制,介绍了无限斜坡模型原理、参数选取,利用GIS空间建模与分析功能,定量完成了无降雨、25 mm、50...     

基于社会网络分析方法的二氧化碳地质封存风险传染特征研究

二氧化碳(CO₂)地质封存技术作为深度减排不可或缺的必要手段,对保护生态环境、推动全球中长期应对气候变化的国际合作以及推进社会绿色、循环、低碳发展具有重要意义。文章总结了二氧化碳地质封存项目全生命周期中可能出现的46个风险因素,运用社会网络分析方法构建风险网络关系模型,对二氧化碳地质封存项目风险因素间的传递作用关系进行了研究。通过风险网络整体与局部参数分析确定风险传递过程中的关键起始节点、关键致险节点、关键传递节点等关键因素,识别出三条潜在风险传递链：(1)地质灾害风险→CO₂供应、注入或运输意外中断风险→预期外的建设或操作成本变化风险;(2)操作人员知识不足或无相应资质风险→人为泄漏风险→项目对环境的破坏风险→公众参与风险→预期外的建设或操作成本变化风险;(3)部门协调不当风险→人才招聘和管理风险→操作人员知识不足或无相应资质风险→预期外的建设或操作成本变化风险。研究旨在为二氧化碳地质封存项目风险研究提供理论创新与技术参考,进而促进CO₂捕集、利用与封存项目的健康发展。     

Rain-triggered slope failure of the railway embankment at Malda,India

The common slope stability analysis is incapable of accurately forecasting shallow slides where suction pressures play a critical role. This realization is used for elaborate stability analyses which include soil suction to better predict rainfall-induced slides at railway embankment at Malda where three known cases of slope failures and train derailments occurred after heavy rainfall. The relationship between the soil–water content and the matric suction is established for the embankment soil. It is then used in the coupled analyses of seepage and slope stability to estimate performances of the embankment at different intensity and duration of rainfall. The numerical simulations are performed with the FE code Geo-Studio. The numerical results show significant reduction in the factor of safety of the railway embankment with the increase in the intensity and duration of rainfall. The effectiveness of the proposed mitigation measures including placement of 2 m-wide free draining rockfill across the slopes and drilling 5-m-long sheet pile wall at the toe of the embankment is studied numerically. The study confirms that the proposed mitigation measures effectively increase the factor of safety of the embankment and stabilizing it even in case of a heavy rainfall of 25 mm/h over 12 h.     

Inhibition of dissolution within shallow water carbonate sediments: impacts of terrigenous sediment input on syn-depositional carbonate diagenesis

The early diagenetic chemical dissolution of skeletal carbonates has previously been documented as taking place within bioturbated, shallow water, tropical carbonate sediments. The diagenetic reactions operating within carbonate sediments that fall under the influence of iron‐rich (terrigenous) sediment input are less clearly understood. Such inputs should modify carbonate diagenetic reactions both by minimizing bacterial sulphate reduction in favour of bacterial iron reduction, and by the reaction of any pore‐water sulphide with iron oxides, thereby minimizing sulphide oxidation and associated acidity. To test this hypothesis sediment cores were taken from sites within Discovery Bay (north Jamaica), which exhibit varying levels of Fe‐rich bauxite sediment contamination. At non‐impacted sites sediments are dominated by CaCO₃ (up to 99% by weight). Pore waters from the upper few centimetres of cores show evidence for active sulphate reduction (reduced SO₄/Cl^? ratios) and minor CaCO₃ dissolution (increased Ca²⁺/Cl^? ratios). Petrographic observations of carbonate grains (specifically Halimeda and Amphiroa) show clear morphological evidence for dissolution throughout the sediment column. In contrast, at bauxite‐impacted sites, the sediment is composed of up to 15% non‐carbonate and contains up to 6000 μg g^?1 Fe. Pore waters show no evidence for sulphate reduction, but marked levels of Fe(II), suggesting that bacterial Fe(III) reduction is active. Carbonate grains show little evidence for dissolution, often exhibiting pristine surface morphologies. Samples from the deeper sections of these cores, which pre‐date bauxite influence, commonly exhibit morphological evidence for dissolution implying that this was a significant process prior to bauxite input. Previous studies have suggested that dissolution, driven by sulphate reduction and sulphide oxidation, can account for the loss of as much as 50% of primary carbonate production in localized platform environments. The finding that chemical dissolution is minor in a terrigenous‐impacted carbonate environment, therefore, has significant implications for carbonate budgets and cycling, and the preservation of carbonate grains in such sediment systems.     

Regional landslide-hazard assessment for Seattle, Washington, USA

Landslides are a widespread, frequent, and costly hazard in Seattle and the Puget Sound area of Washington State, USA. Shallow earth slides triggered by heavy rainfall are the most common type of landslide in the area; many transform into debris flows and cause significant property damage or disrupt transportation. Large rotational and translational slides, though less common, also cause serious property damage. The hundreds of landslides that occurred during the winters of 1995–96 and 1996–97 stimulated renewed interest by Puget Sound communities in identifying landslide-prone areas and taking actions to reduce future landslide losses. Informal partnerships between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the City of Seattle, and private consultants are focusing on the problem of identifying and mapping areas of landslide hazard as well as characterizing temporal aspects of the hazard. We have developed GIS-based methods to map the probability of landslide occurrence as well as empirical rainfall thresholds and physically based methods to forecast times of landslide occurrence. Our methods for mapping landslide hazard zones began with field studies and physically based models to assess relative slope stability, including the effects of material properties, seasonal groundwater levels, and rainfall infiltration. We have analyzed the correlation between historic landslide occurrence and relative slope stability to map the degree of landslide hazard. The City of Seattle is using results of the USGS studies in storm preparedness planning for emergency access and response, planning for development or redevelopment of hillsides, and municipal facility planning and prioritization. Methods we have developed could be applied elsewhere to suit local needs and available data.     

Cost-sensitive rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides

The risk management of rainfall-induced landslides requires reliable rainfall thresholds to issue early warning alerts. The practical application of these thresholds often leads to misclassifications, either false negative or false positive, which induce costs for the society. Since missed-alarm (false negative) and false-alarm (false positive) cost may be significantly different, it is necessary to find an optimal threshold that accounts for and minimises such costs, tuning the false-alarm and missed-alarm rates. In this paper, we propose a new methodology to develop cost-sensitive rainfall thresholds, and we also analyse several factors that produce uncertainty, such as the accuracy of rainfall intensity values at landslide location, the time of occurrence, the minimum rainfall amount to define the non-triggering event, and the variability of cost scenarios. Starting from a detailed mapping of landslides that occurred during five large-scale rainfall events in the Italian Central Alps, we first developed rainfall threshold curves with a ROC-based approach by using both rain gauge and bias-adjusted weather radar data. Then, based on a reference cost scenario in which we quantified several cost items for both missed alarms and false alarms, we developed cost-sensitive rainfall threshold curves by using cost-curve approach (Drummond and Holte 2000). Finally, we studied the sensitivity of cost items. The study confirms how important is the information regarding rainfall intensity at the landslide site for the development of rainfall thresholds. Although the use of bias-corrected radar strongly improves these values, a large uncertainty related to the exact time of landslide occurrence still remains, negatively affecting the analysis. Accounting for the different missed-alarm and false-alarm misclassification costs is important because different combinations of these costs make an increase or decrease of the rainfall thresholds convenient. In our reference cost scenario, the most convenient threshold is lower than ROC-based thresholds because it seeks to minimise the number of missed alarms, whereas the missed-alarm costs are almost seven times greater than false-alarm costs. However, for different cost scenarios, threshold may vary significantly, as much as half an order of magnitude.

     

陕西镇安县地质灾害特征及其危险性分区

镇安县地处秦岭南麓,地质环境条件差,地质灾害多发。调查面积共计3487km2,发现地质灾害点共计319处,其中滑坡286处,泥石流12处,崩塌17处,地面塌陷4处,且主要分布于乾佑河流域、冷水河流域与达仁河流域。研究认为,多雨年份和每年6~10月份是地质灾害多发季节,其中强降雨、河水位升降和人类工程活动是诱发地质灾害多发的主要因素。根据地质灾害点的现状与潜在发展趋势,结合不同因素单元,划分地质灾害危险区,分别为2个高危险区、5个中危险区和4个低危险区。调查区内以小型地质灾害居多,威胁口人多,治理费用高,因此灾害防治以＂监测预防＂为主,工程治理为辅,加强民众地质灾害安全教育与培训。     

湖北清江和尚洞滴水微生物群落随空间和季节的变化

为了考察现代微生物群落对环境因子的响应关系及其在古气候重建中的应用潜力, 利用微生物学传统的培养计数、荧光染色总菌计数和BIOLOG的ECO微平板等技术对湖北省清江和尚洞内不同地点的滴水由内至外进行了空间和季节性的动态监测, 4个滴水点由内向外编号依次为1D、3D、4D和5D.结果证实湖北清江和尚洞洞穴滴水中存在一定数量的微生物.不同样点微生物的代谢活性不同, 1D样品中的微生物群落代谢活性最高, 3D表现出与1D相似的代谢特征, 但平均颜色变化率(AWCD: 微生物对碳源的利用程度, 颜色变化率越高, 表明微生物代谢越旺盛)较1D小, 4D和5D样品在接种24h后平均颜色变化率(AWCD)基本保持不变.对微生物代谢较为旺盛的1D、3D两个样品中不同时间内微生物群落的多样性指数进行分析, 表明洞穴滴水中微生物多样性相对稳定, 随采样季节的变化不大.相对于3D、1D的4个不同季节(采样时间)微生物群落对碳源种类的利用上存在一定差异.1D水样在2006秋季(2006年11月份)、2007春季(2007年5月)和2009年夏季(2009年7月份)微生物群落利用碳源种类上比较接近, 而在2008年初秋(2008年9月)碳源利用种类与前三者的差异明显.与1D相比, 3D的4个不同采样时间的滴水微生物群落在主成分1和主成分2的得分系数比较接近, 群落碳源代谢功能多样性差别不大.这种变化可能反映了不同季节滴水中可溶有机质成分(DOC)的变化及微生物群落成分的变化, 暗示了微生物群落结构变化在指示气候变化应用中的巨大潜力.但微生物群落多样性与代谢功能多样性与气候因子之间的关系尚需深入研究.      

模糊数学在桂林园林园艺博览园地质灾害危险性评估中的运用

桂林园林园艺博览园内可能发生的地质灾害为崩塌滑坡、岩溶塌陷和路基不均匀沉降。根据不同灾种的影响因素及影响力大小,结合相关文献资料和实际工作经验,制定评判标准。运用模糊数学理论中的隶属度函数对建设项目场地进行评估,并通过模型运算和隶属度分析,将该建设项目地质灾害危险性分为大、中、小三个等级,从而建立区域地质危险性评价体系。     

基于粗糙集条件信息熵的山岭隧道坍塌风险评价

坍塌是山岭隧道施工过程中主要灾害之一。由于影响坍塌的因素众多,且各因素所占的权重差异较大,甚至有些因素是不必要或冗余的。目前常用的评价方法不但未对这些不必要或冗余的因素进行筛选,而且权重的确定过于依赖专家经验和主观赋值,导致风险评价结果精度低、可靠性差。基于此,应用粗糙集理论在数据挖掘、指标筛选和重要性计算方面的优势,将山岭隧道坍塌风险评价构建为粗糙集的决策信息表。但工程试验发现,基于传统依赖度的属性约简及权重计算不能满足要求,存在计算权重为0或约简结果过多,无法取舍的问题。针对以上问题,提出了一种基于条件信息熵的计算方法,该方法将条件信息熵引入到属性重要度和权重的定义中,同时以最重要的条件属性为起点,逐步增添属性,实现属性约简。所建立的方法既能从大量影响因素中,提取出主要影响因素,剔除相对冗余或不重要的因素;同时又能计算得到各因素的客观权重。最后结合模糊综合评价法,建立了基于粗糙集条件信息熵的山岭隧道坍塌风险评价模型,并成功应用于秀村隧道中,表明该模型可靠、实用,为山岭隧道坍塌风险评价提供一条新的研究思路。     

Analysis of a progressive slope failure in the Xiangjiaba reservoir area,Southwest China

The rehabilitation construction in the reservoir area of Xiangjiaba hydropower station in Southwest China has caused many landslides. A shallow progressive failure that occurred on the resettlement site of Xin’an Town of Pingshan County in Sichuan Province was selected as a case study. This landslide occurred in a long and gently inclined area by slope excavation under rainfall conditions. It is about 3.0 m deep with a total length of 35 m and is composed of some subfailures. Undisturbed samples were retrieved, on which the basic properties, shear strength, expansive potential, mineral compositions, and microstructures were tested and analyzed. The results show (1) the landsliding materials belong to medium expansive soil, consisting of the clay minerals of illite–smectite (I/S) and chlorite–smectite (C/S); (2) shear strength of the soil is sensitive to water, which greatly decreases once saturated; and (3) many fractures and relatively large pores are developed in the soils. Back analysis of the landslide shows that the shear strength at failure is less than the residual shear strength obtained from lab tests, indicating that some processes contributing to the slope failure could not be reflected by the shear box test. Based on the above analysis, the progressive process of the slope failure was interpreted, and it is inferred that the rainfall entered into the slope mainly through fractures and relatively large pores in the soil. It caused not only the great decrease in soil strength but also the swelling trend. The latter one would lead to growth, interaction, and coalescence of the fractures. Soon after, these fractures formed the shear planes (zones), which further decreased the resistance of the landslide. Under these favorable conditions, the slope excavation directly triggered the failure.     

The effects of Xinanjiang reservoir on precipitation

The Xinanjiang reservoir is located in the mountainous region of Zhejiang and Anhui Provinces. Since the construction of the reservoir in 1959, there was no sufficient amount of stored water during the years 1960–1972. This paper analyzes-the effects of reservoir on precipitation. The results obtained are: (1) The main effects are decreases of summer rainfall and annual rainfall (100 mm at a point 10 km apart from the margin), and slight increase in winter. (2) At the site farther from the reservoir and higher in altitude, annual rainfall increased, 100–200 mm increase at the 50–60 km distancee. (3) The average annual rainfall for the whole basin decreases only by 6 mm or so. (4) The effect changes from year to year. It is less in the rainy year than in the dry year.