Analysis of Time of Occurrence of Earthquakes: A Functional Data Approach

There is no single method available for estimating the seismic risk in a given area, and as a result most studies are based on some statistical model. If we denote by Z the random variable that measures the maximum magnitude of earthquakes per unit time, the seismic risk of a value m is the probability that this value will be exceeded in the next time units, that is, R(m)=P(Z>m). Several approximations can be made by adjusting different theoretical distributions to the function R, assuming different distributions for the magnitude of earthquakes. A related method used to treat this problem is to consider the difference between the times of occurrence of consecutive earthquakes, or inter-event times. The hazard function, or failure rate function, of this variable measures the instantaneous risk of occurrence of a new earthquake, supposing that the last earthquake happened at time 0. In this paper, we will consider the estimation of the variable that measures the inter-event time and apply nonparametric techniques; that is, we do not consider any theoretical distribution. Moreover, because the stochastic process associated with this variable can sometimes be non-stationary, we condition each time by the previous ones. We then work with a multidimensional estimation, and consider each multidimensional variable as a functional datum. Functional data analysis deals with data consisting of curves or multidimensional variables. Nonparametric estimation can be applied to functional data, to describe the behavior of seismic zones and their associated instantaneous risk. The applications of estimation techniques are shown by applying them to two different regions and data catalogues: California and southern Spain.     

岩土工程招标投标方法探讨

介绍了岩土工程招标、投标方式及程序、投标书内容及格式、标书编制原则及方法、投标报价策略及注意事项。     

Geology of Marseilles to Italy high‐speed TGV railway line compared to HS2 in Britain

In a radical departure, SNCF, the French state railway company, launched a public consultation in 2016 about the route for the first of a series of piecemeal extensions to the proposed French high‐speed railway (ligne à grande vitesse) LGV network in Provence‐Alpes‐Côte d'Azur. A cheaper proposal to build an inland line, bypassing Marseilles and Toulon, met strong opposition as it would have traversed landscapes made famous by Cézanne's nineteenth century paintings. This alternative offered options for tunnelling under Marseilles, including an underground TGV station due for completion in 2033. Eventually heading eastwards, a line about 35 km long with a lengthy tunnel into the port city of Toulon will be built by around 2040 from Aubagne. Unlike Britain and problems building HS2 bypassing the West Coast railway mainline into London, France has well‐established relatively generous compensation procedures for anybody losing property due to new infrastructure schemes. Also, this SNCF budget is split into many portions, while HS2 has been hampered by poor geological knowledge of likely ground conditions along parts of the route resulting in massive cost overruns. Even after the Oakervee review into how to bring these cost overruns under control gave the green light for construction of HS2 to continue in February 2020, these underlying factors were hardly considered in this technical and economic report.     

Spectral Estimation of Irregularly Sampled Nonstationary Multidimensional Processes by Time-Varying Periodogram

A multidimensional version of the time varying periodogram has been developed. The estimation method based on the multidimensional time-varying periodogram has been applied to a nonstationary multidimensional storm model. This work proposes that the multidimensional time varying periodogram is capable of estimating nonstationary spectral density functions in space and time.     

大连地铁盾构开挖地层移动规律的模型试验研究

以大连市地铁2号线202标段工程为研究对象,通过相似材料模型试验绘制不同地层随时间沉降曲线,即同一时刻不同地层沉降槽曲线和不同地层水平位移曲线,得到盾构隧道施工地层移动规律。试验结果表明,不同地层各测点的垂直位移随时间的变化可用以时间为自变量的负指数函数表示;先行隧道施工对地层产生扰动,引起地层软化,导致两条隧道之间地表沉降明显叠加,沉降较大;隧道开挖时,若存在地下结构或管线,其将受到附加剪切作用,易出现裂缝,在施工中必须做好切实可行的防护措施。     

Estimate of the Reliability in Geological Forecasts for Tunnels: Toward a Structured Approach

In tunnelling, a reliable geological model often allows providing an effective design and facing the construction phase without unpleasant surprises. A geological model can be considered reliable when it is a valid support to correctly foresee the rock mass behaviour, therefore preventing unexpected events during the excavation. The higher the model reliability, the lower the probability of unforeseen rock mass behaviour. Unfortunately, owing to different reasons, geological models are affected by uncertainties and a fully reliable knowledge of the rock mass is, in most cases, impossible. Therefore, estimating to which degree a geological model is reliable, becomes a primary requirement in order to save time and money and to adopt the appropriate construction strategy. The definition of the geological model reliability is often achieved by engineering geologists through an unstructured analytical process and variable criteria. This paper focusses on geological models for projects of linear underground structures and represents an effort to analyse and include in a conceptual framework the factors influencing such models. An empirical parametric procedure is then developed with the aim of obtaining an index called “geological model rating (GMR)”, which can be used to provide a more standardised definition of a geological model reliability.     

两类经典滑坡发生时间预报模型的理论分析

老化和应变速率对土体强度和变形性质的影响研究,以及野外事例观察,已经证实大多数滑坡的形成机制可以由深部蠕变理论解释。土体蠕动速率在滑坡爆发之前将随着造成滑坡因素的增加而增加。根据这一理论,人们可以建立早期滑动的唯象蠕变方程来预测滑坡。早期的这类代表模型是Saito模型和Voight模型。本文重新进行的理论分析表明:这些模型具有丰富的理论内涵和深入的理论基础,具备滑坡预报模型要求的所有条件,包含的参数物理意义明确,因而具有新的生命力。      

围岩参数Monte－Carlo有限元反分析

提出了应用隧道施工监测的随机值，采用蒙特一卡罗（Ｍｏｎｔｅ－Ｃａｒｌｏ）有限元随机反分析以反推地层参数和初始地应力分布的方法。反推参数不仅给出其均值，还给出参数的方差及分布类型，为地下结构稳定性和可靠性分析提供必要数据。为检验所提的反分析方法对工程的实用性，文中给出了一个实例。     

Study of hydrological phenomena by extreme value theory

We describe and give hydrological applications of a probabilistic model based on extreme value theory which can be used to study the values of a hydrologic process that exceed a certain threshold level Q _B .This model is useful in estimating extreme events X _T of return period T based on N years of available hydrologic record. We also present easy-to-use tables which give confidence intervals for X _T .The hydrologic applications reported are a flood frequency analysis, a methodology for estimating flood damage, an estimation of precipitation probabilities, and a prediction of extreme tide levels.     

Homogenization framework for three‐dimensional elastoplastic finite element analysis of a grouted pipe‐roofing reinforcement method for tunnelling

This paper deals with the grouted pipe‐roofing reinforcement method that is used in the construction of tunnels through weak grounds. This system consists on installing, prior to the excavation of a length of tunnel, an array of pipes forming a kind of ‘umbrella’ above the area to be excavated. In some cases, these pipes are later used to inject grout to strengthen the ground and ‘connect’ the pipes. This system has proven to be very efficient in reducing tunnel convergence and water inflow when tunnelling through weak grounds. However, due to the geometrical and mechanical complexity of the problem, existing finite element frameworks are inappropriate to simulate tunnelling using this method. In this paper, a mathematical framework based on a homogenization technique to simulate ‘grouted pipe‐roofing reinforced ground’ and its implementation into a 3‐D finite element programme that can consider stage construction situations are presented. The constitutive model developed allows considering the main design parameters of the problem and only requires geometrical and mechanical properties of the constituents. Additionally, the use of a homogenization approach implies that the generation of the finite element mesh can be easily produced and that re‐meshing is not required as basic geometrical parameters such as the orientation of the pipes are changed. The model developed is used to simulate tunnelling with the grouted pipe‐roofing reinforcement method. From the analyses, the effects of the main design parameters on the elastic and the elastoplastic analyses are considered. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tunnel blasting techniques in difficult ground conditions

Summary The quality of tunnelling can be improved by proper blast design which takes into account the rock mass conditions. The effects of different rock mass properties on tunnel blast performance need to be assessed. The strength of the formation and joint orientation critically affected fragmentation and overbreak in a model study of blasting. Similar effects were noted in situ when the performance of a blast pattern in different rock mass conditions in the Tandsi inclines (Bihar, India) were analysed. Accordingly, the on-going blast pattern was modified for the poor ground conditions prevailing in the rest of the inclines. Improved fragmentation and smooth profile were obtained as a result; the rate of drivage improved considerably and the cost of excavation was reduced. Based on the observations in the model studies and the investigations at Tandsi, some guidelines for optimum blast design in difficult ground conditions are suggested.     

A model for estimating the value of sampling programs and the optimal number of samples for contaminated soil

A model is presented for estimating the value of information of sampling programs for contaminated soil. The purpose is to calculate the optimal number of samples when the objective is to estimate the mean concentration. A Bayesian risk–cost–benefit decision analysis framework is applied and the approach is design-based. The model explicitly includes sample uncertainty at a complexity level that can be applied to practical contaminated land problems with limited amount of data. Prior information about the contamination level is modelled by probability density functions. The value of information is expressed in monetary terms. The most cost-effective sampling program is the one with the highest expected net value. The model was applied to a contaminated scrap yard in Göteborg, Sweden, contaminated by metals. The optimal number of samples was determined to be in the range of 16–18 for a remediation unit of 100 m². Sensitivity analysis indicates that the perspective of the decision-maker is important, and that the cost of failure and the future land use are the most important factors to consider. The model can also be applied for other sampling problems, for example, sampling and testing of wastes to meet landfill waste acceptance procedures.     

Evidence of self-organization in Sumatra earthquakes: recurrence time and its geodynamical implications

Risk reduction as an outcome only takes place if results of risk estimation studies are used to develop action plans for risk-management and risk-reduction strategies. This paper describes an automated model that uses the output of existing earthquake loss estimation methodologies to support decision makers in evaluating a set of competing seismic mitigation strategies and exploring their impact in reducing socio-economic losses of urban settlements. The proposed model is structured to quantify the monetary value of earthquake losses and to find an optimal budget allocation assigned to each mitigation strategy based on user input. The optimization method takes into account both pre- and post-earthquake expenditures, such as costs of building upgrades, critical facility enhancement, temporary shelter provisions, debris removal, hospitalization and human casualty. The system consists of five main modules: (1) building damage function; (2) mitigated damage function; (3) cost estimation function; (4) optimization function; and (5) user interface function. Whereas the optimization function provides the optimal values assigned to each mitigation alternative based on the estimated costs and a defined budget, the user interface allows the decision maker to interact with the software in each step and plan mitigation strategies that best suit the user’s socio-economic requirements and limitations. The outputs of the proposed model are presented with respect to an application in a pilot study area within a vulnerable city district of Tehran, Iran.     

四方金矿工业指标变化对矿床规模和开采方法的影响

四方金矿在矿山开采的生产实践中,随着生产规模的增大以及国际金价、国内原材料的增涨变化,在矿床工业指标管理过程中,根据外部需求、生产经营成本、生产规模等因素综合分析及时地调整工业指标,采矿方式和方法。做到资源／储量估算合理最大化利用,开采方式和方法简单经济。做到矿山开采年限最大幅度地延长。     

Correcting the Smoothing Effect of Estimators: A Spectral Postprocessor

The postprocessing algorithm introduced by Yao for imposing the spectral amplitudes of a target covariance model is shown to be efficient in correcting the smoothing effect of estimation maps, whether obtained by kriging or any other interpolation technique. As opposed to stochastic simulation, Yao's algorithm yields a unique map starting from an original, typically smooth, estimation map. Most importantly it is shown that reproduction of a covariance/semivariogram model (global accuracy) is necessarily obtained at the cost of local accuracy reduction and increase in conditional bias. When working on one location at a time, kriging remains the most accurate (in the least squared error sense) estimator. However, kriging estimates should only be listed, not mapped, since they do not reflect the correct (target) spatial autocorrelation. This mismatch in spatial autocorrelation can be corrected via stochastic simulation, or can be imposed a posteriori via Yao's algorithm.     

Fuzzy algorithm for estimating average breach widths of embankment dams

Dam breach width significantly influences peak breach outflow, inundation levels, and flood arrival time, but uncertainties inherent in the prediction of its value for embankment dams make its accurate estimation a challenging task in dam risk assessments. The key focus of this paper is to provide a fuzzy logic (FL) model for estimating the average breach width of embankment dams as an alternative to regression equations (RE). The FL approach is capable of handling nonlinear behavior, imprecision in discrete measurements, and parameter uncertainty. Historical data from 69 embankment dam failures are used in the development and testing of the FL model. Application of the FL model is also presented for estimating average breach widths of two case studies that have adequately documented data. The accuracy of the FL rule-based model is investigated using uncertainty analysis: the mean prediction error between the FL estimates and the observed average breach widths is very small (=0.03) and comparable to that achieved using the best available RE. Moreover, the FL uncertainty band is found to be approximately ±0.51 order of magnitude smaller than the ±0.56 order of magnitude achieved with the best available RE. The simulation results indicate the potential of the FL model to be used as a predictive tool for estimating the average breach width of embankment dams.     

Robust phase algorithms for estimating apparent slowness vectors of seismic waves from regional events

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the apparent slowness vector p of a plane P wave caused by a regional seismic event and recorded by a small-aperture seismic array. The case is considered when strong non-stationary and non-Gaussian random interferences act on the array sensors. In this case, the well-known estimate of wideband frequency-wave-number analysis (WFK) becomes ineffective due to large estimation errors. We have proposed three new algorithms for estimating the vector p that are robust i.e. resistant to changes in the statistical properties of the random interferences. They mainly use information about the slowness vector contained in the phases of the spectra of seismograms recorded by the array sensors. An intensive Monte Carlo simulation was carried out to compare the accuracy of the proposed phase-based estimates with the accuracy of WFK-estimate in the case when non-stationary and non-Gaussian anthropogenic interferences act on the array sensors. In the simulation we used synthetic mixtures of signals caused by a seismic event and anthropogenic seismic interferences. These signals and interferences were recorded by real small-aperture seismic arrays. It was shown that the proposed phase-based estimates of the vector p provide significantly better accuracy than traditional WFK-estimate in the case of strong anthropogenic interferences, and have approximately the same accuracy in the case of white Gaussian noise.

     

灌区农业完全成本水价研究——以张掖市甘州区灌区为例

水价是一种重要的经济手段,它是实现水资源可持续利用的重要工具. 现有的水价模型多以供水生产成本代替了供水过程中的全部成本,完全成本水价模型综合考虑了供水生产过程中的所有成本以及利润和税金,使水价能充分体现水资源的稀缺价值、供水服务成本以及水环境的恢复补偿费用. 介绍了完全成本水价模型,然后以张掖市甘州区的灌区为例,计算了其农业完全成本水价. 结果表明：大满、甘浚、上三和乌江4个灌区的完全成本水价分别为0.16元·m^-3、0.15元·m^-3、0.20元·m^-3、0.14元·m^-3. 接着比较了各灌区的现行水价与完全成本水价的差异,得出张掖市现行水价偏低,各灌区现行水价分别占完全成本水价的62.5%、66.67%、50%、71.4%,均未达到各灌区的完全成本水价,无法补偿供水单位的供水成本.     

A methodology for estimating business interruption loss caused by flood disasters: insights from business surveys after Tokai Heavy Rain in Japan

This study proposes a probabilistic methodology for estimating the business interruption loss of industrial sectors as an extension of current methodology. The functional forms and parameters are selected and calibrated based on survey data obtained from businesses located in the inundated area at the time of the 2000 Tokai Heavy Rain in Japan. The Tokai Heavy Rain was a rare event that hit a densely populated and industrialized area. In the estimation of business interruption losses, functional fragility curves and accelerated failure time models are selected to estimate the extent of damage to production capacity and production recovery time. Significant explanatory variables, such as inundation depth, distinct vulnerability, and the resilience characteristics of each sector, as well as the accuracy of fit of the model, are analyzed in the study. The function obtained and the estimated parameters can be utilized as benchmarks in estimating the probabilistic distribution of business interruption losses, especially in the case of urban flood disasters.