Association Between Extraterrestrial Phenomena And Weather Changes In The Northern Hemisphere In Winter

This paper includes a discussion of the validity of theobjections which are usuallyraised against the physical plausibility of the correlationsbetween extraterrestrialphenomena and changes in circulation in the lower atmosphere.The behaviour of the winterlower troposphere in the Northern Hemisphere was analysed bothon a month-to-month timescale and on a day-to-day time scale. The mechanisms which cansatisfactorily explainthe behaviour of the winter lower troposphere on these timescales have been described.The basic features of the results presented were explained bymeans of a mechanism basedon the propagation of planetary waves. Attention was focussedon studying the connectionsamong the changes in the pressure and temperature fields, thechanges in solar/geomagnetic activity and QBO phases by the method of composites. It hasbeen found that the compositeswithout considering QBO phases are similar to the QBO-eastpatterns under the highestactivities. Pressure deviations during QBO-west high solaractivity or low geomagneticactivity and temperature deviations during QBO-east/west lowgeomagnetic activity provedto be of negligible statistical significance.     

The effect of the 11-year solar cycle on the temperature in the lower stratosphere

Two temperature datasets are analyzed for quantifying the 11-year solar cycle effect in the lower stratosphere. The analysis is based on a regression linear model that takes into account volcanic, Arctic Oscillation (AO), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects. Under solar maximum conditions, temperatures are generally warmer for low- and mid-latitudes than under solar minimum, with the effect being the strongest in northern summer. At high latitudes, the vortex is generally stronger under solar maximum conditions, with the exception of February and to a lesser extent March in the Northern Hemisphere; associated with this positive signal at high latitudes, there is a significant negative signal at the equator. Observations also suggest that contrary to the beginning of the winter, in February–March, the residual circulation in the Northern Hemisphere is enhanced. A better understanding of the mechanisms at work comes from further investigations using the ERA-40 reanalysis dataset. First, a consistent response in terms of temperature and wind is obtained. Moreover, considering Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux divergence and residual circulation stream functions, we found an increased circulation in the Northern Hemisphere in February during solar maxima, which results in more adiabatic warming at high latitudes and more adiabatic cooling at low latitudes, thus demonstrating the dynamical origin of the response of the low stratosphere to the solar cycle.     

Combined solar and QBO effects on the modes of low-frequency atmospheric variability in the Northern Hemisphere

We examine joint effects of the solar activity and phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on modes of low-frequency variability of tropospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere in winter. The winter months (December–March) are stratified by the solar activity into two (below/above median) classes, and each of these classes is subdivided by the QBO phase (west or east). The variability modes are determined by rotated principal component analysis of 500 hPa heights separately in each class of solar activity and QBO phase. Detected are all the modes known to exist in the Northern Hemisphere. The solar activity and QBO jointly affect the shapes, spatial extent, and intensity of the modes; the QBO effects are, however, generally weaker than those of solar activity. For both solar maxima and minima, there is a tendency to the east/west phase of QBO to be accompanied by a lower/higher activity of zonally oriented modes and increased meridionality/zonality of circulation. This means that typical characteristics of circulation under solar minima, including a more meridional appearance of the modes and less activity of zonal modes, are strengthened during QBO-E; on the other hand, circulation characteristics typical of solar maxima, such as enhanced zonality of the modes and more active zonal modes, are more pronounced during QBO-W. Furthermore, the zonal modes in the Euro-Atlantic and Asian sectors (North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic pattern, and North Asian pattern) shift southwards in QBO-E, the shift being stronger in solar maxima.     

Geomagnetic activity and the North Atlantic Oscillation

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the prominent pattern of winter climate variability that has a strong effect on weather in the North Atlantic region and the adjacent continents. At present, uncertainty prevails as to the mechanisms controlling the variability of the NAO. It is also difficult to explain why the positive phase of the NAO has prevailed over the past 37 years (1972–2008). We found high positive correlation coefficients between geomagnetic activity (used as a measure of solar wind intensity) and the NAO indices that equal 0.76 for 1962–1994 and 0.63 for 1961–2011. Positive correlations of the distribution of surface air temperature with the NAO and similarly with geomagnetic activity occur in the Northern Hemisphere. These results encourage our search for possible causes controlling the NAO. We have found that at times of high geomagnetic activity the NAO index is positive and magnetic reconnection may enable the solar wind to initiate downward winds in the magnetosphere. Wind anomalies originate at the edge of the stratospheric polar vortex and propagate downward through the troposphere taking part in the intensification of the vortex and of the westerlies. Stronger northerly winds over Greenland carry cold air southward and, together with the enhanced westerlies, advect the warm air from the Atlantic along the deep Icelandic low into Eurasia increasing temperatures there. On the other hand, at times of low geomagnetic activity, the NAO index is negative and the stratospheric polar vortex is weak. Warm air from the subtropics is carried into the Arctic and a rapid amplification of planetary waves propagating upward may cause displacement or even splitting of the weak vortex and sudden stratospheric warming. During this negative NAO phase the weakened westerlies allow more cold air to build up over North America and Eurasia.     

Comparison of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Effects on the Northern Hemisphere Weather Changes

The changes of pressure and temperature fields in the winter lower troposphere observed in association with changes in solar and/or geomagnetic activity are compared. It is shown that the fact whether it was solar or geomagnetic activity was not so important as whether the levels of the two activities were high or low. The differences between the effects of solar/geomagnetic activity, however, are revealed, the pressure and temperature data being stratified according to the QBO phase. The relationship obtained are discussed from the viewpoint of mechanisms resting upon both the planetary wave propagation and the changes of atmospheric air currents in the global electric circuit.     

Relationship between phases of quasi-decadal oscillations of total ozone and the 11-year solar cycle

Temporal variability of the relationship between the phases of quasi-decadal oscillations (QDOs) of total ozone (TO), measured at the Arosa station, and the Ri international sunspot number have been analyzed for the period of 1932–2009. Before the 1970s, the maximum phase of ozone QDOs lagged behind solar activity variations by about 2.5–2.8 years and later outstripped by about 1.5 years. We assumed that the TO QDOs in midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere were close to being in resonance with solar activity oscillations in the period from the mid-1960s to the mid-1970s and assessed the characteristic delay period of TO QDOs. The global distribution of phases and amplitudes of TO QDOs have been studied for the period from 1979 to 2008 based on satellite data. The maximum phase of TO QDOs first onsets in northern middle and high latitudes and coincides with the end of the growth phase of the 11-year solar cycle. In the tropics, the maximum oscillation phase lags behind by 0.5–1 year. The maximum phase lag near 40–50° S is about two years. The latitudinal variations of the phase of TO QDOs have been approximated.     

Variations in statistical parameters of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">NmF</Emphasis>2 winter anomaly with latitude and solar activity

The maximal R ratios of the winter-to-summer NmF2 values of each ionosonde are calculated for a specified UT under daytime quiet geomagnetic conditions and at approximately equal levels of solar activity, based on foF2 measurement data of 98 ionosondes at mid- and low geomagnetic latitudes of the Northern and Southern hemispheres for 1957–2009. The P(R > 1) conditional probability of NmF2 winter anomaly observations, as well as the most probable RMP and average <R> of R values are calculated for low, moderate, and high solar activity on the base of foF2 measurements during the periods December 22 ± 30 days and June 21 ± 30 days. Variations in P(R > 1), RMP, and 〈R〉 with latitude and solar activity are analyzed.     

Seasonal variation of the auroral E-region neutral wind for different solar activities

Seasonal variations in the auroral E-region neutral wind for different solar activity periods are studied. This work is based on neutral wind data obtained over 56 days between 95–119 km altitude under geomagnetic quiet conditions (A_p<16) during one solar cycle by the European Incoherent Scatter radar located in northern Scandinavia. In general, the meridional mean wind shifts northward, and the zonal mean wind increases in eastward amplitude from winter to summer. The zonal mean wind blows eastward in the middle and lower E-region for each season and for each solar condition except for the equinox, where the zonal mean wind blows westward at and below 104 km. Solar activity dependence of the mean wind exists during the winter and equinox seasons, while in summer it is less prominent. Under high solar activity conditions, the altitude profiles of the horizontal mean winds in winter and the equinoxes tend to resemble those in summer. The horizontal diurnal tide is less sensitive to solar activity except during summer when the meridional amplitude increases by ∼10 m s⁻¹ and the corresponding phase shifts to a later time period (1–2 h) during high solar activity. Seasonal dependence of the semidiurnal tide is complex, but is found to vary with solar activity. Under low solar activity conditions the horizontal semidiurnal amplitude shows seasonal dependence except at upper E-region heights, while under high solar activity conditions it becomes less sensitive to seasonal effects (except for the meridional component above 107 km). Comparisons of mean winds with LF and UARS observations are made, and the driving forces for the horizontal mean winds are discussed for various conditions.     

Quasisecular cyclicity in the climate of the Earth’s Northern Hemisphere and its possible relation to solar activity variations

Paleoclimatological reconstructions of temperature of the Earth’s Northern Hemisphere for the last thousand years have been studied using the up-to-date methods of statistical analysis. It has bee indicated that the quasisecular (a period of 60–130 years) cyclicity, which is observed in the climate of the Earth’s Northern Hemisphere, has a bimodal structure, i.e., being composed of the 60–85 and 85–130 year periodicities. The possible relation of the quasisecular climatic rhythm to the corresponding Gleissberg solar cycle has been studied using the solar activity reconstructions performed with the help of the solar paleoastrophysics methods.     

Possible geomagnetic activity effects on weather

Tropospheric temperature and pressure fields on the Northern Hemisphere in the winter periods 1952–1996 were investigated. Composite maps of those fields, created for the high and low geomagnetic activity and individual quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), phases show clear differences not only between different levels of geomagnetic activity, but also between the two phases of QBO. Special attention was given to the behaviour of the lower troposphere in January and February 1982.     

High-latitude geomagnetic disturbances during the initial phase of a recurrent magnetic storm (from February 27 to March 2, 2008)

A complex of geophysical phenomena (geomagnetic pulsations in different frequency ranges, VLF emissions, riometer absorption, and auroras) during the initial phase of a small recurrent magnetic storm that occurred on February 27–March 2, 2008, at a solar activity minimum has been analyzed. The difference between this storm and other typical magnetic storms consisted in that its initial phase developed under a prolonged period of negative IMF B _z values, and the most intense wave-like disturbances during the storm initial phase were observed in the dusk and nighttime magnetospheric sectors rather than in the daytime sector as is observed in the majority of cases. The passage of a dense transient (with N _p reaching 30 cm⁻³) in the solar wind under the southward IMF in the sheath region of the high-speed solar wind stream responsible for the discussed storm caused a great (the AE index is ∼1250 nT) magnetospheric substorm. The appearance of VLF chorus, accompanied by riometer absorption bursts and Pc5 pulsations, in a very long longitudinal interval of auroral latitudes (L ∼ 5) from premidnight to dawn MLT hours has been detected. It has been concluded that a sharp increase in the solar wind dynamic pressure under prolonged negative values of IMF B _z resulted in the global (in longitude) development of electron cyclotron instability in the Earth’s magnetosphere.     

The Effect of Geomagnetic and Solar Activity on the Distribution of Controlling Pressure Formations in the Northern Hemisphere in Winter

The distribution of controlling pressure formations, occurring in the Northern Hemisphere during the winters (January and February) of the years 1952 – 1996, has been analysed. It was found that the deepening of the Icelandic and Aleutian pressure lows is connected not only with a particular QBO phase and level of geomagnetic activity (Bochníek et al., 1999) but also with a particular level of solar activity.     

Global electron content during solar cycle 23

Global electron content (GEC) as a new ionospheric parameter was first proposed by Afraimovich et al. [2006]. GEC is equal to the total number of electrons in the near-Earth space. GEC better than local parameters reflects the global response to a change in solar activity. It has been indicated that, during solar cycle 23, the GEC dynamics followed similar variations in the solar UV irradiance and F _10.7 index, including the 11-year cycle and 27-day variations. The dynamics of the regional electron content (REC) has been considered for three belts: the equatorial belt and two midlatitude belts in the Northern and Southern hemispheres (±30° and 30°–65° geomagnetic latitudes, respectively). In contrast to GEC, the annual REC component is clearly defined for the northern and southern midlatitude belts; the REC amplitude is comparable with the amplitude of the seasonal variations in the Northern Hemisphere and exceeds this amplitude in the Southern Hemisphere by a factor of ～1.7. The dayside to nightside REC ratio, R(t), at the equator is a factor of 1.5 as low as such a GEC ratio, which indicates that the degree of nighttime ionization is higher, especially during the solar activity maximum. The pronounced annual cycle with the maximal R(t) value near 8.0 for the winter Southern Hemisphere and summer Northern Hemisphere is typical of midlatitudes.     

Long-period geomagnetic pulsations in the quasi-conjugate arctic and antarctic regions during the magnetic storm of April 16–17, 1999

Based on the observations in six pairs of almost conjugate high-latitude stations in the Arctic and Antarctic regions, the spectral and spatial-temporal structures of long-period geomagnetic pulsations (f = 2–5 mHz) during the magnetic storm of April 16–17, 1999, which is characterized by a high (up to 20 nPa) solar wind dynamic pressure, have been studied. It has been indicated that the magnetic storm sudden commencement is accompanied by a symmetrical excitation of np pulsations near the dayside polar cusps with close amplitudes. Under the conditions when IMF B _z > 0 and B _y < 0, strong magnetic field variations with the periods longer than 15–20 min were observed only in the northern polar cap. When IMF B _z and B _y became close to zero, geomagnetic pulsation bursts in both hemispheres were registered simultaneously but differed in the spectral composition and spatial distribution. In the Northern Hemisphere, pulsations were as a rule observed in a more extensive latitude region than in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, the oscillation amplitude maximum was observed at higher latitudes than in the Southern Hemisphere. The pulsation amplitude at geomagnetic latitude lower than 74° was larger in the Arctic Regions than in the Antarctic Regions. This can be explained by sharply different geographic longitudes in the polar cap and latitudes in the auroral zone, which results in a different ionospheric conductivity affecting the amplitude of geomagnetic pulsations.     

Studying correlations between the coronal hole area,solar wind velocity,and local magnetic indices in the Canadian region during the decline phase of cycle 23

Geomagnetic disturbances in the Canadian region are compared with their solar and heliospheric sources during the decline phase of solar activity, when recurrent solar wind streams from low-latitude coronal holes were clearly defined. A linear correlation analysis has been performed using the following data: the daily and hourly indices of geomagnetic activity, solar wind velocity, and coronal hole area. The obtained correlation coefficients were rather low between the coronal hole areas and geomagnetic activity (0.17–0.48), intermediate between the coronal hole areas and the solar wind velocity (0.40–0.65), and rather high between the solar wind velocity and geomagnetic activity (0.50–0.70). It has been indicated that the correlation coefficient values can be considerably increased (by tens of percent in the first case and about twice in the second case) if variations in the studied parameters related to changes in the ionosphere (different illumination during a year) and variations in the heliolatitudinal shift of the coordinate system between the Earth, the Sun, and a spacecraft are more accurately taken into account.     

Very quiet intervals of geomagnetic activity and the solar wind structure

Extended periods of very low geomagnetic activity as described by very quiet intervals (VQI's) occur only at those times when the solar wind velocityV has a generally decreasing trend, i.e., they mainly occur either after the velocity peak of a high speed solar stream has passed the Earth, or at times when the Earth is immersed in a low speed solar plasma provided that the daily mean value ofdV/dt is negative. The VQI's most frequently start whendV/dt<0 anddB _Z/dt>0 (B _Z is the geocentric solar magnetrospheric-GSMZ-component of the IMF) and end most likely whendV/dt>0 anddB _Z/dt<0. The temporal trends of the solar wind (SW) velocity affect the variation of thea _p index only when the level of geomagnetic activity is generally low.It is suggested that a gradual expansion or contraction of the magnetosphere, associated with a slow variation of the SW pressure, plays a role in the modification of the reconnection-driven magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) fluctuations in the magnetosphere.     

Response of the high-latitude polar ionosphere to changes in the orientation of the Poynting vector near the Earth orbit relative to the geomagnetic moment orientation

The effect of the mutual orientation of the Poynting vector P of the electromagnetic energy density in the solar wind and the vector M of the Earth’s magnetic moment (taking into account its orbital and diurnal motions) on the geomagnetic activity has been examined for the first time using the measurements of the solar wind parameters on the Earth orbit in 1963–2005. The component P _m of the vector P along the vector M is shown to have a pronounced annual variation with the extrema in November and May and a diurnal variation with the extrema at ∼6 and 18 UT. The phases of the variations are shown to be determined only by the geometric parameters and are independent of the sign of the sector structure of the interplanetary magnetic field. The experimental data on the planetary and high-latitude geomagnetic activity, which is a response to changes in the orientation of P relative to M, are presented. The power of the sources of the electromagnetic energy of the solar wind during strong geomagnetic disturbances is also estimated.     

Ozone content of the atmosphere. 2. Variability of the total ozone content in the atmosphere and the horizontal wind in the lower thermosphere (Central Europe)

The correlation between total ozone content lower thermosphere horizontal wind parameters, and standard indices of solar activity and geomagnetic activity has been studied. The satellite measurements of TOC for five observatories in Central Europe and the lower thermosphere wind measurements for Collm observatory (Germany) were used for 1996–2003. The quasi-periodic structure of these variations and the correlation between the corresponding periodograms were also studied. The quantitative evaluation of the statistically significant correlations and common periodicities were revealed.     

Solar energetic events in the years 1996–2004. The analysis of their geoeffectiveness

Data concerning solar energetic events, published in 1996–2004 by the USAF/NOAA in the form of daily reports, have been collected. The analysis of the particular event types indicates that the degree of their geoeffectiveness depends on their size and on their solar disc location. The mere information that a solar X-flare (XRA) event or a Long Duration XRA Event (LDE) has occurred on the solar disc is insufficient to produce a relevant forecast of geomagnetic disturbances. The probability increases if the XRA is of class X which has occurred on the solar disk in central region (30 °E, 30 °W; 30 °S, 30 °N). XRAs associated with metric type II and IV radio bursts (RSP II and RSP IV), which occurred on the solar disc in this region will very probably cause a geomagnetic disturbance not only if X class are involved, but also M class and B–C class. The Disappearance of Solar Filament (DSF) data cannot be used in forecasting geomagnetic disturbances. The geoeffective and nongeoeffective DSFs are too disproportional. jboch@ig.cas.cz fridrich@geomag.sk     

Response of the geomagnetic activity to solar wind turbulence during solar cycle 23

The solar wind–magnetosphere coupled system is characterized by dynamical processes. Recent works have shown that nonlinear couplings and turbulence might play a key role in the study of solar wind–magnetosphere interaction processes.Within this framework, this study presents a statistical analysis aimed to investigate the relationship between solar wind MHD turbulence and geomagnetic activity at high and low latitudes as measured by the AE and SYM-H indices, respectively. This analysis has been performed for different phases of solar cycle 23. The state of turbulence was characterized by means of 2-D histograms of the normalized cross-helicity and the normalized residual energy. The geomagnetic response was then studied in relation to those histograms.The results found clearly show that, from a statistical point of view, solar cycle 23 is somewhat peculiar. Indeed, good Alfvénic correlations are found unexpectedly even during solar activity maximum. This fact has implications on the geomagnetic response as well since a statistical relationship is found between Alfvénic fluctuations and auroral activity. Conversely, solar wind turbulence does not seem to play a relevant role in the geomagnetic response at low latitudes.