青藏高原降水再循环率与水汽来源辨析

降水再循环率(即蒸发-降水反馈强度)和水汽来源是区域水循环的两个关键环节,它们的量化对于理解水循环过程及其变化至关重要.关于青藏高原降水再循环率和水汽源的已有研究结果存在很大争议.文章厘清了理解水循环的不同视角,指出蒸发与降水之比主要取决于气候模态,而降水再循环率还与区域大小密切相关,水汽源区则取决于追踪时段(降水时段或非降水时段)和追踪程度.在同一理论框架下,关于青藏高原水循环的不同研究结果之间不存在根本冲突.     

城市地震压埋人员分布评估研究——以天津市区为例

地震压埋人员分布是震后科学、有效地开展应急处置和救援的重要依据。针对地震中建筑物破坏造成的人员压埋,从人口分布和在室率着手,在社区级空间尺度上分时段建立人口数量、在室率和建筑物的对应关系;结合建筑物震害评估方法,构建地震压埋人员快速评估模型,并预评估天津市区各烈度下地震压埋人口的数量和分布情况。结果显示,夜间是发生地震压埋的高风险时段,住宅、大学、居民服务类和卫生医疗建筑是地震压埋高发区域,工作日白天应重点关注中小学。     

四川布拖土壤CO_2多年释放特征及影响因素

依据四川省布拖土壤CO2测点2005—2013年的连续数据,分析了CO2的释放特征、来源和影响因素。结果表明,布拖CO2释放率有明显的夏高冬低年变特征,来源于土壤生物呼吸。布拖CO2释放率的主要影响因素为地温和土壤湿度,在每年11月至次年3月,CO2释放率和地温正相关;在每年4~10月,CO2释放率和土壤湿度正相关。结果还表明,布拖CO2释放率在2007、2012和2013年夏季的峰值偏高,其成因为生物生长增长期内降水量偏大引起土壤湿度增大、从而引起土壤呼吸增强、进而引起CO2释放率偏高,与地震孕育或区域构造活动无关。     

在室率先验区划在地震压埋率的应用研究

基于在室率与人员压埋率先验关系,建立了以小区域为中心的在室率离散点,以离散点为基础用克里金插值得到我国中西部地区的在室率区划。以汶川地震灾区部分中小学为例分析在室率区划在压埋率中的应用,说明在室率先验区划在抗震救灾具有一定的指导意义。     

新疆天山南部构造区不同时段小地震目录完整性分析

依据天山地区地质构造、运动强度和历史地震活动的差异性,将南部天山地区划分为南天山东段和南天山西段两个构造区.考虑到新疆台网建设的区域差异性和时间的阶段性,在对两个构造区不同震级下限地震频度时间特征分析的基础上,研究了各构造区不同时段的G-R关系和震级分布特征,并运用Z检验方法对各区不同时段小地震目录差异的显著性进行了分析,进而评估了两个构造区1970年以来不同时段的小地震目录完整性,为区域地震活动性研究中地震目录的合理运用提供参考依据.     

不同参考面块体应变计算公式的对比分析

通过对不同块体应变计算公式的分析,利用模拟数据作为输入、采用经典平差方法求解应变参数并评定精度,进而对比不同参考面块体应变计算公式的差异。同时对小样本和大样本模拟数据应变计算结果进行统计分析。结果表明,平面公式与球面公式计算结果的差异与计算区域的大小有关,由投影误差决定,与点位的纬度分布没有必然的联系。因此,在小区域进行应变计算不会因为公式不同而导致结果的系统性差异。     

不同超声强度下微囊藻群体沉降及其上浮过程对光照和温度的响应

以太湖微囊藻群体为研究对象,研究低频超声作用下,4种超声强度和不同处理时间对微囊藻群体的抑制效应,试图得出最优超声参数,同时探讨超声处理后的微囊藻群体对光照和温度的响应.结果表明,当超声强度为0.0353 W/cm~3、处理时间为60 s时,藻细胞沉降量高达80%,且此时藻细胞浓度和叶绿素a浓度均保持不变,表明超声未破碎藻细胞,细胞内含物不会泄漏污染水质,因此作为最优超声参数.随后,对超声处理后的微囊藻群体在不同光照和温度条件下进行恢复培养,结果表明光照和温度均能影响微囊藻群体的浮力恢复,但光照的影响更明显,当光照度为2000 lx时,藻细胞在培养120 h后漂浮率恢复至对照组水平.超声后的藻细胞在较低温度(≤20℃)下漂浮率无显著变化,而在较高温度(25℃)下,培养72 h后漂浮率迅速升高,至120 h能恢复至对照组水平的80%左右.因此,野外超声控藻应选择低光强、低温的时段,采用间歇式多次处理,抑制微囊藻群体上浮,使其彻底沉降.     

不同小波基对水泥路面脱空信号时频特征的影响

水泥路面脱空是导致路面板块断裂的主要因素,及早确定脱空区域的范围,可为水泥路面结构安全性的力学分析提供依据,避免断板现象．以水泥路面脱空病害为研究对象,采用正演模拟方法研究了脱空形状和深度对探地雷达（Ground Penetrating Rada,GPR）响应信号的影响．使用连续小波变化（Continuous Wavelet Transform,CWT）提取脱空区域信号的时频域特征,并用CWT时频特征重构脱空区域的3D模型．在此基础上,研究了不同小波基对脱空特征的影响,并在室内模型上进行验证实验．结果表明,正演模拟与室内模型的脱空特征一致,且脱空与正常路面的GPR信号在时频域差异明显,CWT图谱能量集中区域可表征脱空的深度和范围;不同小波基函数的CWT处理结果不同,相比于morse小波和bump小波,amor小波的CWT的处理结果更精确,更能反映脱空的时频特征;CWT时频特征可实现脱空病害的3D可视化,为分析脱空区域范围提供参考,这为后续开展道路养护提供理论依据．     

夏天是臭氧污染最严重的季节

<正>在常规监测的6项环境空气质量指标中,PM2.5和臭氧是超标频率最高的首要污染物。每年11月至次年4月,易多发PM2.5超标现象,臭氧超标则集中在每年6月~10月。自2014年全国范围内大规模开展臭氧监测以来,     

云南地区GNSS应变场时空演化与地震事件关联分析

采用GAMIT/GLOBK软件对云南境内及邻区近400个GNSS测点1999～2018年的观测数据进行解算,在各个测点时间序列和速度场的基础上,采用克里金插值方法分时段估计该区域在1999～2004年、2004～2007年、2009～2013年、2013～2015年、2015～2018年共计5个时间区域应变率场;根据区域地壳面应变率和最大剪应变率的空间变化以及相应时段之后3年内的MS≥5. 0地震事件分布特征,分析发现:绝大部分震例发生在面应变高梯度带的张压转换区和最大剪应变高值区,可见研究区各个观测时段GNSS应变率场对后期1～3年内的中强震发生区域有一定的指示意义;以2014年盈江6. 1级、鲁甸6. 5级和景谷6. 6级地震为样本,建立监视块体获取应变时间序列,分析发现:地震前三个月左右均出现震中附近短期应变趋势改变、快速增强、转折的现象,这些形变异常变化或许反映了发震区应力-应变积累在接近临界破裂状态时的非线性调整,为地震短临预测尤其是时间要素的判断提供参考。     

Species pool versus site limitations of macrophytes in urban waters

Biodiversity in urban areas is affected by a multitude of stressors. In addition to physico-chemical stress factors, the native regional species pool can be greatly reduced in highly urbanized landscapes due to area loss and fragmentation. In this study, we investigated how macrophyte composition and diversity in urban water systems are limited by the regional species pool and local environmental conditions. Canonical correspondence analysis of the macrophyte species composition revealed that urban and semi-natural water systems differed and differences could be related to local abiotic variables such as pH and iron concentrations. Macrophytes in the semi-natural area were typical for slightly acid and oligotrophic conditions. In urban water systems, exotic species characteristic of eutrophic conditions were present. In the semi-natural areas, the number of macrophyte species exceeded the number of species expected from species–area relationships of artificial water bodies in rural areas. In urban areas, the number of macrophyte species was similar to artificial water systems in rural areas. Macrophyte species present in the study areas also were generally found within 20–30 km distance to the study area. Macrophyte species composition in urban water systems and semi-natural water systems appeared to be influenced by the regional species pool within approximately 30 km of the locations. Nevertheless, site limitation ultimately determined the local macrophyte species composition and diversity in urban water systems and in semi-natural water systems.     

地震灾害人员死亡评估模型对比—以甘肃省中强震为例

梳理了现有3种地震灾害人员死亡评估模型,并基于甘肃地区历史中强地震(M_S4.7~6.0),对人员死亡评估模型进行震例计算。结果表明:(1)针对甘肃地区中强地震,3种模型的评估结果与实际结果基本处于同一数量级,可用于地震后快速盲评估计算,为地震后政府和应急管理部门应急指挥决策提供科学依据;(2)当中强地震震中烈度达到Ⅷ度时,这3种评估模型的计算结果与实际人员死亡人数存在较大误差,需要根据专家经验进行人机交互修正,依据地震灾区地理环境、社会经济、人口空间分布等资料进行综合分析支撑应急决策;(3)在甘肃地区中强地震的人员死亡评估中,李雯模型因考虑了地震灾区面积、区域适用性要优于其他两类模型。     

用累积地震矩法研究全球地震活动性

本文基于Lomnitz提出的MRI理论,用"累积地震矩(CSM)"算法对全球1900—1999年7级以上的地震进行了处理,试图通过分析大震前CSM图像的变化,来判断地震发生的可能性。对不同地区的6个地震震前CSM图像的分析表明:7级以上地震的CSM图像在震前5到10年内会改变,大部分地震发生在CSM的高值区或次高值区。通过实际运算发现:在不同的地区应使用不同的值可获得较好的结果,用于计算的地震数越多,获得的结果越好。有些大地震前CSM异常区域不是唯一的,往往会出现几个,这可能与研究区域的地震活动性有关。因此,笔者认为:若要获得可靠的CSM图像,除应当考虑不同地区的小震活动水平外,还应考虑地震断层对震后能量分布影响。统计结果表明:在目标地震发生后,下一次地震在空间上发生在原地及2度距离范围内的概率较大,在3度以外区域发生的概率相差不大;在时间上,发生在原地区震后1年内的概率最高,这可能与余震活动有关;在5年的时间里,下一次地震发生的次数占到全部地震的70%以上。因此,要注意大地震后,目标地震附近有地震能量进一步释放的危险性。     

基于微粒群算法对城乡应急避难场所规划的研究

地震是具有毁坏性的自然灾害,对于震后严重受损的地区,设计合理的应急避难场所是非常必要的,为此提出基于微粒群算法对城乡应急避难场所规划的研究。将退火算法的微粒群理论与城乡地区应急避难场所规划相结合,在约束条件较多的情况下,将应急避难场所视为一个粒子,对应急避难场所规划创建目标函数,从而实现对城乡住区应急避难场所的规模规划设计;其次设计应急场所的内容与位置模型,集合城乡需求点布局的影响因素,修建不同的应急场所设施点,并以覆盖全部需求点为目标,实现应急避难场所的整体规划。通过仿真实验证明,所提微粒群算法具有较好的规划效率,可保证规划后的城乡住区在受到地震侵害后,受灾人群有即时的可避难场所,为人们的震后生活提供帮助。     

MTBE and gasoline hydrocarbons in ground water of the United States

The occurrence of methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) and gasoline hydrocarbons was examined in three types of studies of ground water conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey: major aquifer surveys, urban land-use studies, and agricultural land-use studies. The detection frequency of MTBE was dependent on the study type, with the highest detection frequency in urban land-use studies. Only 13 ground water samples from all study types, or 0.3%, had concentrations of MTBE that exceeded the lower limit of the U.S. EPA's Drinking-Water Advisory. The detection frequency of MTBE was highest in monitoring wells located in urban areas and in public supply wells. The detection frequency of any gasoline hydrocarbon also was dependent on study type and generally was less than the detection frequency of MTBE. The probability of detecting MTBE in ground water was strongly associated with population density, use of MTBE in gasoline, and recharge. Ground water in areas with high population density, in areas where MTBE is used as a gasoline oxygenate, and in areas with high recharge rates had a greater probability of MTBE occurrence. Also, ground water from public supply wells and shallow ground water underlying urban land-use areas had a greater probability of MTBE occurrence compared to ground water from domestic wells and ground water underlying rural land-use areas. The probability of detecting MTBE in ground water was weakly associated with the density of leaking underground storage tanks, soil permeability, and aquifer consolidation, and only concentrations of MTBE >0.5 microg/L were associated with dissolved oxygen.     

Regional ash fall hazard II: Asia-Pacific modelling results and implications

In a companion paper (this volume), the authors propose a methodology for assessing ash fall hazard on a regional scale. In this study, the methodology is applied to the Asia-Pacific region, determining the hazard from 190 volcanoes to over one million square kilometre of urban area. Ash fall hazard is quantified for each square kilometre grid cell of urban area in terms of the annual exceedance probability (AEP), and its inverse, the average recurrence interval (ARI), for ash falls exceeding 1, 10 and 100?mm. A surrogate risk variable, the Population-Weighted Hazard Score: the product of AEP and population density, approximates the relative risk for each grid cell. Within the Asia-Pacific region, urban areas in Indonesia are found to have the highest levels of hazard and risk, while Australia has the lowest. A clear demarcation emerges between the hazard in countries close to and farther from major subduction plate boundaries, with the latter having ARIs at least 2 orders of magnitude longer for the same thickness thresholds. Countries with no volcanoes, such as North Korea and Malaysia, also face ash falls from volcanoes in neighbouring countries. Ash falls exceeding 1?mm are expected to affect more than one million people living in urban areas within the study region; in Indonesia, Japan and the Philippines, this situation could occur with ARIs less than 40?years.     

Forecasting of Air Quality Index in Delhi Using Neural Network Based on Principal Component Analysis

Forecasting of the air quality index (AQI) is one of the topics of air quality research today as it is useful to assess the effects of air pollutants on human health in urban areas. It has been learned in the last decade that airborne pollution has been a serious and will be a major problem in Delhi in the next few years. The air quality index is a number, based on the comprehensive effect of concentrations of major air pollutants, used by Government agencies to characterize the quality of the air at different locations, which is also used for local and regional air quality management in many metro cities of the world. Thus, the main objective of the present study is to forecast the daily AQI through a neural network based on principal component analysis (PCA). The AQI of criteria air pollutants has been forecasted using the previous day’s AQI and meteorological variables, which have been found to be nearly same for weekends and weekdays. The principal components of a neural network based on PCA (PCA-neural network) have been computed using a correlation matrix of input data. The evaluation of the PCA-neural network model has been made by comparing its results with the results of the neural network and observed values during 2000–2006 in four different seasons through statistical parameters, which reveal that the PCA-neural network is performing better than the neural network in all of the four seasons.     

1990年景泰6.2级地震前后甘肃东南部地区的区域异常——地震前兆与后效区分

在分析地震活动性，地壳形变和其它前兆资料基础上指出，１９９０年景泰６．２级地震前后甘肃东南部地区的区域异常具有变化速率小，起始时间不同步，异常反央的力学性质不一致等特征，其中以异常变化速率小了为显著。     

哈尔滨市城乡建设工程的状况调查与分析

2016年6月1日实施的修订国家标准GB 18306-2015《中国地震动参数区划图》,哈尔滨市城区由Ⅵ度上升为Ⅶ度。郯庐断裂带北部的依兰—伊通断裂上的通河县、方正县地震烈度由Ⅵ度上升为Ⅶ度和Ⅷ度的高烈度区。哈尔滨市的城乡工程性震害防御能力已经明显不能满足要求。本文在分类抽样调查该区域城乡在用的20世纪与本世纪的建设工程的状况,讨论区域建设工程对策建议。