西宁市农业气候资源区划

利用青海全省50个气象站年降水量、7月平均气温和≥0℃积温的30年(1971—2000年)气象资料,采用多元逐步回归分析法,建立了气候要素空间分析模型;采用GIS系统对模型进行了(25m×25m)小网格精细化空间插值运算,得出西宁市气候要素分布图;并根据确定的区划指标,对气候要素分布图进行叠加分析,结合西宁市乡镇行政边界资料最终制作出西宁市农牧业气候区划图,将西宁市共区分为12类气候区,得出西宁市主要以冷凉气候为主,并对主要的9类气候区进行了分析介绍。     

对广西水稻气候区划的探讨

根据广西88个气象站的气候资料,以水稻安全生长季为指标,采用网格距为0.1×0.1经纬度的小网格气候分析方法,将广西稻作区划分为4个适宜气候区:晚熟双季稻适宜气候区、中晚熟双季稻适宜气候区、早中熟双季稻适宜气候区和单季稻再生稻适宜气候区。     

近30年河南省气候变化趋势研究

利用1971~2000年河南省32个农业气象站逐年气象资料,选取年平均气温、极端最高气温、极端最低气温、无霜期、降水量、相对湿度、蒸发量等7个气候要素,对河南省气候变化总体趋势和8个气候区的气候变化趋势进行分析。结果表明全省总体上每10年:年平均气温上升0.34℃,极端最高气温下降0.25℃,极端最低气温上升0.5℃,无霜期延长3天,年降水量增加5.0 mm,相对湿度增加0.08%,蒸发量减少86.8 mm。总体气候趋向温和、湿润,气候条件趋于改善。8个气候区中,7个气候区总体气候条件趋于暖湿,仅1个气候区总体气候条件趋于暖干。     

四川康养气候资源与利用匹配度分析

利用1981～2019年四川地区156个气象站观测资料和康养气候景点POI和旅游资源数据,基于空间热点聚类分析方法,从康养气候景点分布特征和气候资源特征两个维度开展四川康养气候资源分析。结果表明：四川五大经济区的康养气候景点旅游资源要素和开发利用程度不匹配,康养气候景点等级聚集程度和康养气候区资源丰富度不匹配。五大经济区中,仅成都平原经济区康养气候景点要素与开发较为充分,攀西地区虽康养气候景点配套和开发程度较低,但所处康养气候区潜力丰富,开发空间巨大。     

主成分分析在气候区划中的应用

对n个站、p个气候要素的气候场,可由主成分分析用前m个主成分表征气候场的气候特征;并由因子载荷量判断各主成分表示的气候意义。对陕西省100个站、17个气候要素进行主成分分析,结果前三个主成分的累积贡献率达88.8%。并由前三个主成分的分布将陕西省划分为5个气候亚带、11个气候区、26个气候小区的三级气候区划。     

苹果优质气候资源与区域性研究

文章研究了苹果品质与气象条件的关系、我国主要苹果产区的品质气候资料及其优质气候区域，研究证实了我国西北黄土高原、西部山区以及甘新等苹果产区，是我国优质苹果气候区。     

2012-2019年河北省不同气候区酸雨特征及影响因子分析

利用河北省20个酸雨观测站2012—2019年的酸雨观测日数据和2013—2019年的SO₂、CO、NO₂、O₃、PM₁₀、PM_2.5环境气象逐日数据，分析了河北省不同气候区酸雨特征及其与其他要素的关系。结果表明：(1)近8年来，强、弱酸雨日数呈逐年减少趋势。强、弱酸雨在燕山丘陵气候区与冀东平原气候区交界的东部发生概率均较其他地区高。此外，弱酸雨在太行山气候区与山前平原气候区交界的南部发生概率较高。(2)当降水级别为小雨，太行山气候区主导风向为北风、山前平原气候区主导风向为东北风、冀东平原气候区主导风向为东北风、燕山丘陵气候区主导风向为东风、冀北高原气候区主导风向为东南风，有利于河北省各气候区发生强酸雨。(3)冀北高原气候区及山前平原气候区发生大雨及以上级别的降水事件时，对SO₂、NO₂清除效果较好；燕山丘陵气候区、太行山气候区及冀东平原气候区发生中小雨级别的降水事件时，对SO₂、NO₂清除...     

基于GIS的南宁市细网格立体农业气候资源分析研究

根据气象台站最新30年的气候观测资料和台站地理信息,建立了南宁市主要气候要素的空间分析模型。在GIS的支持下,对无测站地区500 m×500 m网格单元上的气候要素值进行了推算,并利用反距离权重插值法进行残差订正,制作了南宁市农业气候资源的细网格立体分布图,分析了南宁市气候资源的特点及时空分布规律,为该市气候资源的合理开发利用提供了科学依据。     

寒冷地区的科学界定及黑龙江省寒区划分

利用8项气候指标对黑龙江省寒区进行合理划分，得出5个寒区气候区，为了研究寒区的开发，促进寒区经济发展提供科学依据。     

一种月尺度单站预报方法研究

介绍一种月尺度单站预报方法。通过从前期大气环流的高层、中层环流场及中高层温度场的月平均资料中,提取一组影响单站气候要素变化的信号源,组成多元线性回归模型。同时对同一要素的多个测站进行预报。在对全省10个气候区的业务预报中,经过多年应用。该方法逐步成为短期气候预测的关键决策依据。利用该方法,建立全省14个测站的预报模型,并于2008年3月投入业务使用。利用该模型的预报结果,3—12月预测质量大幅提高。     

人类活动影响下的北京地区气候承载力初步评估

重点考虑北京地区的气候条件、环境特点以及社会经济发展过程中的主要人类活动,从气候资源现状、人类活动强度和生态环境状态3个基本要素层出发,构建人类活动影响下的北京地区气候承载力评估指标体系,评估人类活动影响下的北京地区气候承载力情况,分析了气候承载力构成要素的空间分布及相对水平,解析了不同区县气候承载力的相对状况及主要制约因子。结果表明,北京地区气候承载力指数（I_CCC）在0.24~2.24之间变化,其中延庆县、密云县、昌平区的气候承载力较高,东城区、西城区、顺义区、石景山区、丰台区、房山区、朝阳区的气候承载力相对较差,海淀区、大兴区、怀柔区、门头沟区、平谷区、通州区居中。在各行政区县内部,东城区、西城区、丰台区、顺义区、朝阳区的气候承载力空间差异性较小;而延庆县、怀柔区、门头沟区等郊区气候承载力空间差异性较大,这主要受气候条件和生态环境的区域差异性影响。从气候承载力的构成要素看,怀柔区、延庆县及门头沟区的气候承载力主要受气候资源的限制;城六区和房山区等地的气候承载力主要受人类活动强度及生态环境要素的限制。就气候承载力具体指标而言,东城区、西城区、海淀区、朝阳区主要受人口密度、人均绿地面积以及生产生活排污量的影响;石景山区主要受空气质量较差的影响,房山区则受空气质量差和人均能耗高的影响。     

Self-organized criticality of climate change

Self-organized criticality (SOC) of three climatic factors (average daily temperature, vapor pressure, and relative humidity) was studied by analyzing climate records from 1961 to 2011 in Yanqi County, northwest China. Firstly, we investigated the frequency-size distribution of three climatic factors and found that they were well approximated by power-law distribution, which suggested that climatic factor might be a manifestation of self-organized criticality. Furthermore, we introduced a new numerical sandpile model with decay coefficient to reveal inherent dynamic mechanism of climatic factor. Only changing the number value of decay coefficient of climatic factors, this model would give a good simulation of three climatic factors' statistical characteristics. This study showed that it was the self-organized criticality of the climate change that results in the temporal variation of climatic factors and the occurrence of large-scale climate change events triggered by SOC behavior of the minor climatic factors. So, we believed that SOC characteristics would have practical implications for climate prediction.     

Temporally-aggregated atmospheric optical properties as a function of common climatic information: Systems development and application

Summary A general lack of information on atmospheric optical properties (e.g., the transmission coefficient) is a major obstacle to the use of the Lambert-Beer Laws in numerical modeling. This paper reports on an effort to extract those properties from solar irradiance records and capture their variations in relation to commonly available climatic information. The end product of the effort is a Lambert-Beer Laws-based model that is complete with functions projecting atmospheric coefficients and that differentiates direct, sky-diffuse and terrestrially-reflected solar irradiance. The model is driven by calendar day, four location factors (latitude, elevation, slope azimuth, slope inclination) and three climatic variables (bright-sunshine duration, precipitation, temperature). It effectively reproduces monthly solar irradiance data from around the world.     

西藏色齐拉山地区立体气候特征初步分析

利用西藏色齐拉山地区不同海拔高度的8个自动站和3个实测气象站1年的近地面观测资料,分析了该地区气温、地温、降水量、湿度和风速等气象要素的季节变化特征,探讨了东、西坡局地气候特征差异形成的原因。结果表明:色齐拉山地区1月为最冷月、7月为最暖月;月平均最高气温、最低气温与平均气温的季节变化一致。气温日较差大年较差小。年平均气温直减率东、西坡分别为0.54℃/100m和0.73℃/100m,西坡大于东坡。地气温差冬季西坡大于东坡,夏季东坡大于西坡。年、月平均地温直减率西坡仍大于东坡;东坡除夏季7、8月份外,地温直减率小于气温直减率;西坡除冬季(12月和1月),地温直减率大于气温直减率。降水量东坡比西坡多,海拔2500m以上地区4~10月降水总量随着海拔高度的升高呈增加趋势,增加率为20.9mm/100m。空气相对湿度冬季低夏季高,年变化呈单峰型。东、西坡冬季风速较强夏季相对较弱,初春风速最大。东、西坡气候差异与海拔高度、坡向、下垫面性质有关。      

Potential for growing Arabica coffee in the extreme south of Brazil in a warmer world

Agriculture appears to be one of the human activities most vulnerable to climatic changes due to its large dependence on environmental conditions. However, the diversity of Brazilian environmental conditions could be of great advantage to adapting this sector to new climatic conditions, which should be assessed as in this study on shifting Arabica coffee cultivation to the extreme south of the country. The methodology applied is the same the one used to define climatic risks in current productive regions of Brazil and their vulnerability to climatic change predicted by IPCC reports. The basic climatic parameters applied were frost probability and annual average temperature, since annual water deficit did not prove to be a restricting factor for Arabica coffee cultivation in the study area. The climatic conditions suitable for coffee production are: annual average temperature between 18??C and 22??C, annual water deficit less than 100?mm and frost probability (risk of lowest annual temperature less than 1??C) less than 25%. An area is said to have ??low climatic risks?? for coffee production when these three climatic conditions are met. Current climatic conditions were used and simulations of four temperature increases between 1??C and 4??C were also performed. The results indicated a substantial increase in the size of low climatic risks areas for the production of Arabica coffee in the extreme south of Brazil, mainly for mean temperature increases of 3??C in the study area in relation to present conditions. Increases of 2??C and 4??C were also favorable, but not as good as those obtained for 3??C. It should be underscored that areas with low climatic risks will be able to be found mainly in the extreme south of the study region, the border with Uruguay and North of Argentina.     

气候数值模式在计算网格环境下的应用

气候数值模式研究一直受到大型计算机系统计算性能和计算资源不足的制约。目前越来越多的超级计算领域,正采用网格技术来实现多个计算节点协作的分布式计算环境,以提高计算能力。本研究是气候数值模式在网格环境下的实现方案,依据数值模式数据通讯量的多少,按强关联型和弱关联型两种主要的计算形态对多个气候模式和准数据并行的数值模式在局域网网格和广域网网格环境下实验。实验发现气候数值模式在网格环境下特点:强关联型的数值模式不适合广域网络构成的网格,而弱关联型的数值模式可以在网格计算环境中取得较好的计算效果。另外,合理地组织计算节点的结构,可以有效地提高数值模式的计算效果。这些工作对气候数值模式研究在以网格计算环境为基础的下一代超级计算中的应用有借鉴作用。     

基于GIS的巴西陆稻IAPAR-9种植气候区划研究

根据巴西陆稻IAPAR-9生长发育对气候条件的要求, 结合其在广西的多年引种试验结果, 分析确定了影响广西种植巴西陆稻的关键气候因子和气候区划指标, 采用GIS技术对区划指标进行小网格推算, 得出广西不同地理背景下1 km×1 km网格点上的有关气候要素值, 通过GIS的空间分析和多层复合方法, 对广西种植巴西陆稻进行气候区划, 并对区划结果评述和建议, 为广西发展巴西陆稻生产进行合理布局提供科学依据。     

Is the response of hill slope debris flows to recent climate change univocal? A case study in the Massif des Ecrins (French Alps)

To assess the impacts of future climatic change, we need a better understanding of the relationships between debris flows dynamic and the climate. The subject of this paper is the variability in the response of debris flows to climatic change in recent decades in the Massif des Ecrins (French Alps). The climatic trend observed in the French Alps was characterized by analyzing data on extreme summer rainfall events recorded daily at nine stations located all over the Massif des Ecrins since 1960. According to the generalized Pareto law (GPD) our results showed that extreme summer rainfalls have increased significantly in the Massif des Ecrins since the 1980s. Statistical tests showed a significant increase in average annual air temperature. The response of 647 hill slope debris flows to this climatic change was investigated. Different types of hill slope debris flows were analyzed as a function of their lithology or the nature of the accumulated debris. A number of logistic regression based models were developed to characterize the relationship between climate and the occurrence of debris flows in a specific geomorphological context. Analysis of frequency and return period over the last two decades showed different patterns depending on the type of debris flow concerned. Hence, the response of hill slope debris flows to climatic change is not the same everywhere in the Massif des Ecrins.     

基于台站降水资料对不同空间内插方法的比较

如何把离散的气象台站资料通过合适的空间内插方法转变成规则的网格数据,对于气候变化分析和模拟研究具有重要的意义.作者利用中国区域160个常用台站10年降水观测资料为例,分别采用克里格(Kriging)插值、反距离加权、Delaunay三角剖分线性插值、双谐样条(Biharmonic Spline)插值和Cressman客观分析等几种常见的空间内插方法,较为系统地分析和比较了这几种内插方法插值结果之间的异同,对其优缺点和适用范围进行了适当讨论,并采用不同的网格分辨率和影响半径对Cressman客观分析方法做了进一步分析比较.结果表明:在台站分布密集的区域不同空间内插方法之间差异较小,在台站分布稀疏的区域则差异较大;与更加密集的台站观测资料的比较显示,自动调节影响半径的Cressman客观分析方法与双谐样条插值方法误差相对较小.