国际海啸预警系统(ITWS)

介绍了国际海啸预警系统的构成、地震与海啸信息的检测、海啸预警信息的发布，并介绍了太平洋海啸预警中心和阿拉斯加海啸预警中心。     

基于地震自动速报和COMCOT模式的南海地震监测与海啸模拟平台开发

介绍由广东省地震局开发的南海地震监测与海啸数值模拟平台,该平台主要由两部分组成:一是基于国家地震自动速报备份系统的南海地震实时监测平台,全天候实时监测南海及其周边地区进行地震自动速报,如果震级达到6级以上,平台发出声音报警,并预留短信接口,可发布海啸预警信息;二是基于COMCOT模式的南海地震海啸数值模拟平台,根据地震三要素、震源参数、断层参数等,进行数值模拟海啸传播过程,计算海啸到达海岸线的时间和浪高,获得海啸传播时程和破坏程度,用于预判发布海啸预警信息。这两者之间关系密切,缺一不可,先有地震,后才引发海啸,而海啸预警才是最终目的。     

葡萄牙破坏性地震和海啸预警系统(DETWS)

本文介绍了葡萄牙破坏性地震和海啸预警系统(Destructive Earthquakes and Tsunami Warning System)的构成、地震与海啸信息的检测、海啸预警信息的发布。     

地震预警立法问题的探讨

地震预警作为一种防震减灾手段,目前受到我国政府和公众的极大关注。为了实现地震预警的社会效能,必须将其纳入法制化管理。本文首先论述了地震预警立法的必要性和可行性,然后就立法思路展开分析,最后对地震预警的主要立法内容进行了较为详细的阐述。     

建立南海地震海啸监测预警系统的构思

南海东南边缘的马尼拉海沟是国际上公认具有发生破坏性地震海啸条件的危险地区,由于南海没有大面积的岛屿阻隔海啸传播,如果在马尼拉海沟发生大地震引发海啸,那么将对广东省漫长的海岸线造成严重破坏。广东省南海地震海啸监测预警系统建设在广东省地震速报系统和国家地震自动速报备份系统的基础上,由地震速报、震源机制快速计算、海啸数值模拟计算等模块组成,对南海地震海啸进行实时监测,提供海啸波浪到达海岸线的估计时刻和最大海浪高度,提供预警信息等社会公共服务。     

日本气象厅根据东北地方太平洋近海地震改进海啸警报

日本气象厅在根据日本沿岸发生的地震预测海啸发生方面,是以地震发生后3min为目标,努力发布迅速准确的海啸警报和预警提示。将东北地方太平洋近海地震时发生的特大海啸灾害作为一次沉痛的教训,2013年3月,日本开始使用验证改进后的新的海啸警报。本文将介绍这次改进的内容。     

香港海啸数值模型发展——以日本3.11海啸为主要案例对模型的验证

香港天文台在2012年引进了一套采用平行运算技术的海啸数值模型COrnell Multigrid COupled Tsunami(COMCOT)model,并与香港天文台在2010年初开始运行的地震数据处理及分析系统结合,利用后者探测及分析所得的太平洋或南海地震参数,模拟海啸传播过程和计算海啸在海面上及抵岸时的情况。并用日本311地震所产生的海啸为主要案例,加上过去香港曾经录得的海啸记录,验证COMCOT模拟海啸的能力,讨论COMCOT在香港天文台海啸预警工作上的应用。     

海南省南海地震监测和海啸预警服务

2004年底发生在印度洋的地震海啸造成的巨大灾难引起了人们广泛的关注。根据海南岛有仪器记录到地震海啸的事实,从构造角度讨论了海南岛未来遭受地震海啸袭击的可能性,强调了建立海南省南海地震监测和海啸预警系统的必要性和重要性,并提出了预警系统建设的初步设想。     

地震与海啸

海啸是严重的地震次生灾害之一,简要介绍了海啸的成因、分布、量度、传播特征及对我国的影响;并就国际及我国如何加强海啸监测,联合建设预警预报系统提出建议。     

南中国海区域海啸预警中心地震监测系统

简要介绍了南中国海区域海啸预警与减灾系统的建设和发展历程,同时重点阐述了地震监测系统构成及其基本功能。作为重要组成部分,地震监测系统通过地震数据的实时汇集、存储、自动处理和分析,并结合人机交互方式实现了地震定位、震源机制解和有限断层模型反演。实际应用表明,地震监测系统对全球6.0级以上地震定位时间不超过8 min,在震后10—15 min内完成W震相方法快速反演海底强震震源机制解,在震后短时间内完成有限断层模型反演,为海啸预警提供快速、准确、可靠的地震基本参数和震源特征参数。      

Tsunami and its Hazard in the Indian and Pacific Oceans: Introduction

The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caused an estimated 230,000 casualties, the worst tsunami disaster in history. A similar-sized tsunami in the Pacific Ocean, generated by the 1960 Chilean earthquake, commenced international collaborations on tsunami warning systems, and in the tsunami research community through the Tsunami Commission of International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics. The IUGG Tsunami Commission, established in 1960, has been holding the biannual International Tsunami Symposium (ITS). This volume contains selected papers mostly presented at the 22nd ITS, held in the summer of 2005. This introduction briefly summarizes the progress of tsunami and earthquake research as well as international cooperation on tsunami warning systems and the impact of the 2004 tsunami. Brief summaries of each paper are also presented.     

Finite Fault Modeling in a Tsunami Warning Center Context

The US NOAA/NWS tsunami warning centers have relied on earthquake location and depth, and scalar measures of earthquake size and slowness to assess the potential for the generation of a destructive tsunami by an earthquake. Recent earthquakes, such as Peru 2001, Sumatra 2004 and the Java 2006, manifest some of the difficulties the warning centers face as they try to cope with unusual earthquakes. We have undertaken a study of a simple teleseismic waveform inverse model and applied it to the earthquakes of June 23, 2001 in Peru and of July 17, 2006 in Java. Synthetic numerical experiments suggest that the most salient features of the rupture history of an earthquake can be recovered. Furthermore the calculations can be conducted quickly enough to be useful in a warning center context. We have applied our technique to the Peru 2001 and recent Java 2006 earthquakes. Our overall results are consistent with those obtained from other studies. The results show why the Peru event initially looked slow to the US tsunami warning centers and that the Java event is a truly slow or tsunami earthquake. Clearly, the warning centers stand to benefit from an increased understanding of the earthquakes they monitor. Furthermore, better knowledge of the slip distribution along a fault will improve tsunami wave-height forecasts.     

Tsunamis and tsunami warning: Recent progress and future prospects

Tsunamis are one of the most destructive disasters in the ocean.Large tsunamis are mostly generated by earthquakes,and they can propagate across the ocean without significantly losing energy.During the shoaling process in coastal areas,the wave amplitude increases dramatically,causing severe life loss and property damage.There have been frequent tsunamis since the 21 st century,drawing the attention of many countries on the study of tsunami mechanism and warning.Tsunami records also play an essential role in deriving earthquake rupture models in subduction zones.This paper reviews the recent progress and limitations of tsunami research,from the aspects of tsunami generation,propagation,inversion and warning.Potential tsunami warning strategies are discussed and future prospects on tsunami research are provided.     

Validation and Joint Inversion of Teleseismic Waveforms for Earthquake Source Models Using Deep Ocean Bottom Pressure Records: A Case Study of the 2006 Kuril Megathrust Earthquake

The importance of accurate tsunami simulation has increased since the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and the Indian Ocean tsunami that followed it, because it is an important tool for inundation mapping and, potentially, tsunami warning. An important source of uncertainty in tsunami simulations is the source model, which is often estimated from some combination of seismic, geodetic or geological data. A magnitude 8.3 earthquake that occurred in the Kuril subduction zone on 15 November, 2006 resulted in the first teletsunami to be widely recorded by bottom pressure recorders deployed in the northern Pacific Ocean. Because these recordings were unaffected by shallow complicated bathymetry near the coast, this provides a unique opportunity to investigate whether seismic rupture models can be inferred from teleseismic waves with sufficient accuracy to be used to forecast teletsunami. In this study, we estimated the rupture model of the 2006 Kuril earthquake by inverting the teleseimic waves and used that to model the tsunami source. The tsunami propagation was then calculated by solving the linear long-wave equations. We found that the simulated 2006 Kuril tsunami compared very well to the ocean bottom recordings when simultaneously using P and long-period surface waves in the earthquake source process inversion.     

Evaluating Tsunami Hazard in the Northwestern Indian Ocean

We evaluate here the tsunami hazard in the northwestern Indian Ocean. The maximum regional earthquake calculated from seismic hazard analysis, was used as the characteristic earthquake for our tsunami hazard assessment. This earthquake, with a moment magnitude of M _w 8.3 and a return period of about 1000 years, was moved along the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) and its possible tsunami wave height along various coasts was calculated via numerical simulation. Both seismic hazard analysis and numerical modeling of the tsunami were validated using historical observations of the Makran earthquake and tsunami of the 1945. Results showed that the possible tsunami may reach a maximum height of 9.6 m in the region. The distribution of tsunami wave height along various coasts is presented. We recommend the development of a tsunami warning system in the region, and emphasize the value of education as a measure to mitigate the death toll of a possible tsunami in this region.     

Lessons Learned from the 2011 Great East Japan Tsunami: Performance of Tsunami Countermeasures, Coastal Buildings, and Tsunami Evacuation in Japan

In 2011, Japan was hit by a tsunami that was generated by the greatest earthquake in its history. The first tsunami warning was announced 3 min after the earthquake, as is normal, but failed to estimate the actual tsunami height. Most of the structural countermeasures were not designed for the huge tsunami that was generated by the magnitude M = 9.0 earthquake; as a result, many were destroyed and did not stop the tsunami. These structures included breakwaters, seawalls, water gates, and control forests. In this paper we discuss the performance of these countermeasures, and the mechanisms by which they were damaged; we also discuss damage to residential houses, commercial and public buildings, and evacuation buildings. Some topics regarding tsunami awareness and mitigation are discussed. The failures of structural defenses are a reminder that structural (hard) measures alone were not sufficient to protect people and buildings from a major disaster such as this. These defenses might be able to reduce the impact but should be designed so that they can survive even if the tsunami flows over them. Coastal residents should also understand the function and limit of the hard measures. For this purpose, non-structural (soft) measures, for example experience and awareness, are very important for promoting rapid evacuation in the event of a tsunami. An adequate communication system for tsunami warning messages and more evacuation shelters with evacuation routes in good condition might support a safe evacuation process. The combination of both hard and soft measures is very important for reducing the loss caused by a major tsunami. This tsunami has taught us that natural disasters can occur repeatedly and that their scale is sometimes larger than expected.