Supportive elements to the decision-making process in the emergency planning of the Angra dos Reis Nuclear Power Complex,Brazil

Accidents in nuclear power plants are problems of great complexity, mainly due to their consequences, such as the population evacuation from the enterprise influence area. The decision-making and emergency plans must be well articulated and require good local geographic space knowledge and the interactions of their environments. This study is a contribution to the emergency plans for the Almirante Álvaro Alberto Nuclear Power Plant, currently the only nuclear complex in Brazil, located in Angra dos Reis, Rio de Janeiro. The study confirmed the region’s main geoenvironmental aspects as winds and rainfall, landslides and population density were evaluated as important elements in the local emergency process. Their integrated analysis supported scenario identification and critical regional points and highlighted population evacuation escape routes. These important results characterized the support to local emergency management actions and guidelines. Furthermore, the geographic information systems was configured as an integrated spatial and temporal analysis platform to associate meteorological, geological/geomorphological and socio-economic data, playing a key role to support the evacuation planning in the event of nuclear power plant accidents.     

Long-term risk assessment of possible accidental release of nuclear power plants in complex terrains with respect to synoptic weather patterns

This paper presents an integrated effort of a long-term risk analysis for the emergency response of nuclear power plants in complex terrains. Use of coupled source term, fate and transport, and exposure assessment models associated with eight synoptic weather patterns successfully provides timely and reasonably accurate long-range prognostic wind fields to simulate the possible exposure episodes and risk potential. The seamless integration of multi-scale simulation models in accordance with different release scenarios of process source term in the nuclear power plants permits the simulation of pollutant fate, transport, and deposition processes in multiple dimensions of atmospheric environment. With the aid of spatial analysis, the assessment of potential detrimental impacts for the accidental release of various nuclides from nuclear power plants becomes achievable. The practical implementation of this integrated modeling system was assessed by case studies at one existing nuclear power plant in southern Taiwan, China. Two- and three-dimensional fly-through visualization technologies make risk assessment practical and credible based on the differing weather patterns identified at the continental scale in advance.     

Sea ice disaster risk assessment index system based on the life cycle of marine engineering

Based on the classification results of marine structure accidents induced by sea ice, the risk assessment index system of sea ice disasters was established. The possibility coefficient of risks was proposed based on risk factors of sea ice disasters, including sea ice conditions, ice risk status, ice resistance in the design phase, the current defense ability in the operation phase, and management behaviors in the freezing period. The severity index should be determined according to the affected scope, the distribution of affected personnel, and the monitoring ability in emergency. According to the case study and expert evaluation method, the scores and levels of sea ice disaster risk assessment indices were determined. Finally, the sea ice disaster risks of two offshore oil platforms and a coastal nuclear power plant were assessed.

     

Introducing the geosocial context of nuclear decommissioning: Policy implications in the U.S. and Great Britain

Decommissioning is the inevitable final phase in the life of a nuclear power plant. Research and development to date have been largely technical in nature, despite the substantial past importance of geosocial issues such as emergency preparedness and transboundary pollution. Thus far public inputs have been minor and without measurable effect. Public recognition and the potential for public impact on decommissioning policy is increasing in both countries, although government agencies and utilities are taking little account of it. This article uses experience in the U.S. and Great Britain to address the question of what the geosocial context of nuclear decommissioning is, and how this context will affect nuclear policy. The discussion focuses on four themes: the geosocial ‘signature’ of decommissioning, the emerging interest in decommissioning, decommissioning as the next nuclear leap of faith, and decommissioning as the next focus of nuclear power policy. It is recommended that five areas of public involvement need careful attention: public perceptions, socioeconomic impacts, land use, waste disposal, and economics.     

航空伽马能谱测量在突发核事件中的应用

航空放射性测量由于其独特的优点,在区域环境辐射测量、突发核事件测量等方面具有广泛的应用前景,通过一些实例来展现航空放射性测量在突发核事件测量中的优势,讨论了制定航空放射性应急测量预案的可行性。     

核电站扩建工程基坑开挖爆破振动安全控制

结合秦山核电二期扩建工程,在已运行核电站附近新扩建核电站的大型基坑开挖过程中进行爆破振动的监测与爆破振动的控制。通过理论分析与监测等多种手段对爆破振动进行有效的控制,确保了正在运行核电站的安全。所总结的减震措施经验对其他核电站的爆破振动控制具有借鉴作用。     

Comparative analysis of radioactive cesium wash-off from contaminated catchment areas after accidents at the Fukushima Dai-ichi and Chernobyl nuclear power plants

The paper presents quantitative data on radiocesium wash-off (dissolved and particulate) from catchment areas after the accident at the Fukushima-1 nuclear power plant. The evaluations are conducted based on published data on radiocesium monitoring in streams in the accident zone and monitoring at standard USLE plots. The characteristics of radiocesium wash-off and its distribution coefficient in riverine waters and surface runoff are analyzed by comparing data obtained on the territories of the Fukushima and Chernobyl accidents within a few years after the accidents. The normalized radiocesium wash-off coefficients in solution for the Fukushima river catchment area are one to two orders of magnitude lower than the analogous values for the Chernobyl catchment area. The normalized wash-off coefficients of radiocesium on particulate matter in the Fukushima and Chernobyl catchment areas are comparable. However, at least twice higher mean annual precipitation and steeper slopes in the Fukushima catchment area result in a higher annual wash-off coefficient than that of the Chernobyl area. It is demonstrated that characteristics of radiocesium wash-off obtained at USLE plots can be utilized to evaluate the scales of natural catchment areas.     

Risk analysis of tripping accidents of power grid caused by typical natural hazards based on FTA-BN model

As the scale of the power grid becomes larger, the requirements for transmission reliability are getting higher. Due to the large geographical span and the harsh environment of the power transmission line, it has become the most severely affected equipment of the power grid by natural factors. However, the quantitative assessment of transmission line tripping accidents caused by multiple natural hazards has rarely been investigated. In this study, a risk analysis method to probabilistically analyze the tripping accidents of power transmission lines caused by wildfire, lightning, strong wind and ice storm was proposed. The analysis process consists of comprehensively identifying the risk of tripping accidents based on fault tree analysis and dynamically performing the predictive analysis of tripping accident evolution process in transmission line from causes to consequences based on Bayesian network. Critical risk evolution paths corresponding to four natural hazards are determined through a 72-node BN. The source risks of the four critical risk evolution paths are artificial ignition source from the wildfire path, aging from the lightning path, thoughtless of surrounding environment from the strong wind path and wind effect from the ice storm path. The countermeasures of tripping accidents are derived through the source risks and synergy between risks in three scenario analysis. This study is expected to examine the key challenges of risk management in power grid tripping accidents, which provides technical supports for accident preventing, handling and recovering of tripping accidents of the power transmission line according to “scenario–response”-based hazard response strategy.

     

核应急航空监测方法

本概述了国际上核应急航空监测方法的开发和研究现状，介绍了我国建立的第一套兼容的能基本满足核应急航测要求的航空监测系统。结合实例，探讨了根据核事故应急航空监测的不同目的需采取的相应航空监测方法。     

岩石坚硬程度对核电厂地基-基础地震响应特征的影响分析

考虑核电厂地基-基础的动力相互作用,应用显式动力有限差分法分析了地震作用下极软岩、较软岩、坚硬岩上核电厂建筑结构基础的地震响应特征,比较了岩石坚硬程度对基础加速度反应谱的影响。研究表明：随着岩石坚硬程度的提高,核电厂建筑物结构基础的地震响应有增加的趋势;在周期轴上,基础处的加速度反应谱曲线会随着岩石坚硬程度的提高逐渐向短周期（高频段）方向移动。在高频段,建造于较坚硬岩石上基础结构的加速度反应谱值偏大;在中等频段,建造于较软岩石上基础结构的加速度反应谱值偏大;在低频段,岩石坚硬程度对加速度反应谱的影响不显著。     

基于“情景-应对”的矿井水灾事故应急决策机制

为解决矿井水灾事故应急快速反应、高效决策的现场需求,针对矿井水灾事故的不确定性、复杂性和紧迫性等特点,运用多案例分析法,解析了11起典型矿井水灾事故,提出了判别“情景”和事故“情景”两个关键概念,定义了集合{突水水源,突水通道,采掘方式,出水量,淹没范围,生存空间}为矿井水灾事故的情景,并运用AHP分析法计算了6个情景要素各自的权重。确立了“情景-应对”应用在矿井水灾应急决策领域的实现途径,详细阐述了构建情景库、案例库、对策库的方法以及“情景-应对”型矿井水灾应急决策方案的生成过程,并提出了以“黄金72小时” “8天8夜”为时间节点的多阶段矿井水灾事故应急决策机制,案例推演应用表明,该应急决策机制不仅规范了事故应急流程,而且实现了精准、快速、高效的目标。      

Development and Application of the Chinese Global Operational Oceanography Forecasting System

Chinese Global operational Oceanography Forecasting System (CGOFS) is configured in three levels of nested grids from global ocean, open ocean to offshore. This global operational oceanography forecasting system architecture is firstly bulit in China by the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center (NMEFC). It has been put into operational forecasting at NMEFC, providing real-time forecasting of multi-scale ocean current, temperature, salinity, wave, sea surface wind, etc. All the ocean forecasting products are released in many ways and made available through the online, realizing full-range coverage in resolution from hundreds kilometer to several kilometer. The CGOFS includes 8 subsystems: global sea-surface wind numerical forecasting subsystem, global ocean circulation numerical forecasting subsystem, global ocean wave numerical forecasting subsystem, global tide and tidal current forecasting subsystem, Indian Ocean marine environment numerical forecasting subsystem, polar sea ice numerical forecasting subsystem, refined marine environment numerical forecasting for China’s surrounding waters,and integration management subsystem for operational support service of the CGOFS. Operational applications of the CGOFS are closely connected with China’s economic-social development and military security needs. For example, the CGOFS palys a crucial role in environmental forecasting for Chinese research vessel and icebreaker Xuelong, MH370 Searching, submersible “Jiaolong” exploration and nuclear contaminant transport from Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, providing important scientific support for developing an ocean power, protecting national maritime rights, ensuring marine safety and coping with ocean problems in emergency.     

中小型原水河渠污染事故危害度应急评价模型

为了对中小型原水河渠污染事故危害影响程度进行综合评价,利用污染事故案例样本资料,在提出原水污染事故危害度概念基础上,归纳影响中小型原水河渠污染事故危害度的直接与间接影响因素,应用粗糙集理论与方法,对间接影响因素进行重要性分析、冗余约简及重要度权重计算,综合直接与间接影响因素的作用,构建中小型原水河渠污染事故的应急评价模型。以成都市原水河渠为例,设计模拟污染事故情景,对所构建模型进行分析,结果表明,模型能够反映中小型原水河渠污染事故的危害影响程度。所构建模型适用于中小型原水河渠污染事故的应急评价,可为应急响应决策提供支撑信息。     

复杂非均质场地条件下核电厂HPX泵房的静动力联合分析

EPR核电厂循环水泵房(HPX)给循环冷却水(CRF)系统供水,为抗震Ⅰ类物项,厂址地基中非均质特性的影响尤为重要。以国内某核电厂实际厂址条件为背景,基于ANSYS分析平台建立了泵房-地基三维有限元整体计算模型,细致模拟捕虏体的力学特性和空间分布形态,并提出基于隐式Newmark的静动力时程分析法,对地基竖向变形及承载能力,基础底面接地率、抗滑和抗倾覆稳定性以及泵房主应力分布等进行了综合评价。计算结果表明,在该厂址实际的分布状态情况下,捕虏体的存在对泵房地基的安全性影响较小,局部压应力超标不影响整体稳定性,所评价指标均能满足规范要求,不需要进行地基处理措施,也验证了所建立静动力联合分析模型的可靠性及良好的工程适用性,结合ANSYS软件丰富的单元模型及非线性分析能力,该模型具有解决复杂核电结构非线性动力问题的潜力。     

田湾核电站扩建山体爆破工程爆破质量安全控制

综述了在商业运行的核电站周边山体爆破控制要点,尤其对爆破振动的控制和爆破过程质量控制点的设置进行了较详细的讨论,为类似工程提供借鉴。     

正确对待放射性与核安全

通过天然放射性的变化,放射性安全标准体系知识介绍,以及日本3.11大地震及引发的海啸和核泄漏对环境影响范围的分析,说明福岛第一核电站核泄漏对中国领域没有任何影响;以WHO安全标准衡量,在本洲岛的影响范围小于1万km2.同时通过实例讨论,强调了加强对核电站周边环境的日常监测,重视核电站周边放射性环境微小变化,是保障核安全的重要环节之一.最后介绍了大亚湾核电站周边水库水质重金属元素分析结果,并评价了核电站环境的安全性,指出具有好的安全保障体系的核能利用是清洁、环保的能源.     

基于Modflow某电厂厂址区地下水环境影响评价研究

根据某火电厂建设项目自身性质及其对地下水环境影响的特点,采用数值模拟法进行预测与评价,建立能够正确刻画评价区地下水流动特征的地下水数值模型,并预测评价项目厂区在建设阶段、运行阶段及服务期满后等3个情景下地下水环境的影响和危害情况。认为本项目废水设计为零排放,不会对场址所在的地下水系统造成新的影响。在正常工况下,建设项目不会对当地地下水产生明显影响。在考虑发生风险事故且防渗措施失效情况下,建设项目对场区及下游地下水环境造成轻微影响,不会引起地下水质量标准降低,在及时采取防渗堵漏措施后,对场区及下游地区地下水不会产生影响。旨在为有效预防和控制电厂区域的地下水环境恶化,保护地下水资源,为电厂工程设计和环境管理提供科学依据。     

核电厂项目设计接口管理分析

介绍了核电厂项目中的设计接口关系,以及我国应用接口控制手册(ICM)进行设计接口管理的工程实践,并对ICM的有效管理提出了新的看法。     

四川核电站的场地地震安全性评价问题探讨

在核电站安全性评价中,场地地震动反应分析是核安全评价中最重要的工作。拟建四川棱电站选址于沉积岩地层。沉积岩场地的共同特点是岩体的不均匀性,即成层性,有不同的倾角,各层有不同的物理力学特性,有不同的风化程度,有的位于盆地中,有的位于盆地边缘。这些特性,使场地地震动反应计算更加困难。因此,要准确评价场地条件对地震动反应的影响,就必须解决如下问题：场地软硬程度对地震加速度的放大特性;沉积岩场地的风化程度对场地地震波的放大特性;在盆地中的沉积岩场地的“盆地效应”对地震波的放大特性;地震波本身的随机性;沉积岩场地的地震动反应分析模型及工程分析计算软件研究。     

核电工程数据中心建设研究

在电厂的建设过程中,从规划设计、采购、施工安装到调试运维等各阶段都会产生大量的数据信息,这些信息对电厂的运行管理将产生重要的影响。本文将从核电工程管理实际出发,通过阐述工程数据中心建设的必要性、所采用的理论、技术以及构建方法等4个方面内容,寻找到适用于AP1000三代核电工程特点的核电工程数据中心的建设方式。