喀斯特系统生物地球化学循环及对全球变化的响应

生物地球化学循环是地球系统物质循环的核心,是维系地表生态系统稳定和人类社会可持续发展的重要基础。然而,气候变化以及人类的过度干扰可能会显著改变表层地球系统中的生物地球化学循环过程,尤其是脆弱的喀斯特生态系统。特殊的多孔隙关键带结构也加速了喀斯特地区物质循环及其对外界环境变化的响应,影响了不同尺度的物质循环和生物地球化学过程。本研究主要综述了宏观尺度（气候变化）、中尺度（人类活动）和微观尺度（微生物活动）的环境变化对喀斯特地区生物地球化学循环的影响。结果表明多要素变化导致喀斯特地区物质循环受到强烈影响,气候变化、人类活动和微生物活动及其耦合关系对喀斯特地区生物地球化学循环的调控作用具有重要意义。最后,本研究强调了现有研究的局限性并指出未来研究的挑战与方向,即未来应从系统研究（如地球关键带）的视角出发,将多尺度观测－分析与综合模型集成研究并举,从而构建多源多尺度耦合的过程和系统模型,进而为阐明喀斯特系统的演变规律和动力学机制、实现喀斯特地区的生态保护和高质量发展提供理论基础。      

全球变化人口与经济系统风险形成机制及评估研究

以增暖为主要特征的全球气候变化,已经对世界可持续发展和人类安全提出严峻挑战。在全球尺度上评价全球变化风险,开展有针对性的防范与适应,已经成为当前国际社会的重要共识。国家重点研发计划项目"全球变化人口与经济系统风险形成机制及评估研究",力图定量预估未来全球气候变化和人口与经济系统的暴露性与脆弱性变化,构建基于复杂系统动力学的全球变化人口与经济系统风险定量评估模型,集成具有自主知识产权的全球变化人口与经济系统风险评估模式,并在全球尺度上定量评估近期和中期全球变化人口与经济系统风险,编制全球变化人口与经济系统风险地图集。为我国参与全球气候治理及国际气候谈判,以及国际减轻灾害风险战略框架的实施提供科学支撑。     

地球系统模式与综合评估模型的双向耦合及应用

针对2016年度国家重点研发计划项目"全球变化与应对"指南方向"气候变化经济影响综合评估模式研究",旨在建立具有自主知识产权的、国际一流的评估模式,评估气候变化对中国经济的影响。项目的实施是在全球变化正在深刻影响人类生存和发展的背景下开展的,总体目标是提高地球系统模式空间水平分辨率,完善综合评估模型,实现地球系统模式和综合评估模型的双向耦合,评估气候变化对社会经济的影响。旨在解决2个关键科学问题:综合评估模型中如何刻画气候变化的影响?气候变化对中国社会经济的影响及其程度如何?解决2个关键技术问题:地球系统模式中小尺度人类活动模拟的技术问题;地球系统模式和综合评估模型运行尺度匹配和非同步耦合的技术问题。     

生态系统与人类福祉——千年生态系统评估的成就、贡献和展望

千年生态系统评估（MA）是由联合国秘书长安南于2001年6月宣布启动的一项为期4年（2001—2005年）的国际合作项目,这是在全球范围内第一个针对生态系统及其服务与人类福祉之间的联系,通过整合各种资源,对各类生态系统进行全面、综合评估的重大项目。依据MA发布的最新成果,主要从3个方面介绍了它的重要成就与贡献：①首次在全球尺度上系统、全面、多尺度地揭示了各类生态系统的现状和变化趋势、未来变化的情景和应采取的对策,其评估结果为改善与生态系统有关的决策制定过程提供了充分的科学依据;②丰富了生态学的内涵,明确提出了生态系统的状况和变化与人类福祉之间的密切联系,将研究“生态系统与人类福祉”作为现阶段生态学研究的核心内容和引领21世纪生态学发展的新方向,从而将生态学的发展推进到了一个新的阶段;③ 阐述了评估生态系统与人类福祉之间相互关系的框架,并建立了多尺度、综合评估它们各个组分之间相互关系的方法。MA的实施虽然取得了巨大成就,但是它所提出的一系列理念、方法和数据仍需不断完善。这些问题的解决,尚需有关学者今后进行长期不懈的努力。     

流域科学研究中的观测和模型系统建设

流域是地球系统的缩微,是自然界的基本单元。流域科学从基础研究角度可以被看作是地球系统科学研究方法在流域尺度上的具体体现;从流域综合管理的应用角度看,流域科学是在流域尺度上通过对自然资源和人类活动的优化配置而为可持续发展服务的应用科学。流域观测系统和模型系统的建设是发展流域科学的前提。提出了建立遥感—地面观测一体化的、覆盖流域能水和生物化学循环及社会经济活动的流域观测系统的设想,规划了系统各组成部分,以高效、高分辨率、高精度、多尺度、集成和现代化为流域观测系统的基本衡量准则。流域模型系统可概括为“水—土—气—生—人”集成模型的发展,[JP2]应该科学目标和流域管理目标并重,既要发展具有综合模拟能力的流域集成模型,也要建成流域水土资源和社会经济资源可持续利用决策支持系统。流域集成模型应由分布式水文模型、陆面过程模型、地下水模型、渠系模型、动态植被模型和社会经济模型构成。     

多尺度评估的贡献及经验教训

简要介绍了千年生态系统评估（MA）项目亚全球评估工作组的报告《生态系统与人类福祉：多尺度评估》的核心内容，重点在于多尺度评估的贡献以及从中获取的经验教训。多尺度评估的贡献主要表现在：① 全面、系统地阐述了生态系统服务与人类福祉在多种尺度上的重要联系；② 从多种尺度上揭示了生态系统服务的状况与变化趋势；③ 制定提高人类福祉和保护生态系统服务的有效对策，需要考虑不同尺度上的驱动力和利益相关方的参与；④ 当地社区对生态系统服务的变化具有积极的适应与管理能力。此外，在对全球评估的概念框架的修改、对开展多尺度评估的利弊分析、多尺度评估需要克服的限制因素以及今后需要权衡与考虑的问题等方面，MA的多尺度评估也提供了宝贵的经验教训。      

经济快速发展地区环境质量演变及可持续发展——-香山科学会议第 163次学术讨论会观点摘要

当今人类社会 ,经济高速发展和生活方式快速变更 ,正在加剧环境质量的急剧退化 ,已严重地威胁着人类的健康生存和社会持续发展。环境质量是评判人类生存与发展环境好坏的尺度和表征。经济持续快速增长地区环境质量演变及持续发展研究已成为跨世纪的前沿课题。近年来 ,我国科学界从人类活动与地球表层系统相互作用与可持续发展的视角出发 ,对长江、珠江三角洲等社会经济快速发展地区的资源、环境与可持续发展进行的研究表明 ,对该地区有关人类活动、经济过程与环境质量演变 ,以及与经济社会持续发展的耦合关系尚有待深入认识和阐明。因此 ,以…     

国外可持续发展度量研究综述

虽然可持续发展80年代才明确提出,但从60年代开始的发展度量研究就为可持续发展度量研究提供了很好的基础。国外研制的可持续发展度量指标基本可分为四类:第一类是基于生态-环境观点的较微观层次的压力-状态-响应指标;第二类是以价值综合核算为前提的综合的可持续发展指数,如绿色GNP、国民财富指数等;第三类往往对资源、环境要素的价值核算持保留态度,避免作综合的价值核算,而是分别选取人口、资源、环境、经济、社会等多方面的指标进行系统分析,采用无量纲化和加权平均的方法求得衡量可持续发展水平的综合指数;第四类是从可持续性的反面着手,通过定义不可持续性来规定可持续性,建立不可持续性指标来度量可持续性。     

开展21世纪区域可持续发展综合研究刍议

走可持续发展之路是人类发展的自身需要和必须选择，它的中心思想是：合理利用资源，保护环境，寻求经济和社会（包括人口）与自然协调的可持续发展，区域可持续发展综合研究是一个前无古人的研究工程，它的核心是在多学科研究基础上建立现代化的计算机信息咨询系统的可持续发展决策动力系统。地球科学工作者在其中大有可为。     

全球变化与区域可持续发展耦合模型及调控对策

全球气候变化和土地利用/覆盖变化已经导致许多地区水资源短缺、生态系统服务退化和巨灾风险增加等一系列生态环境问题。如何有效地应对气候变化风险,促进全球和区域的可持续发展,是当前全球变化研究中的一个重要论题。国家重点基础研究发展计划项目"全球变化与区域可持续发展耦合模型及调控对策(2014CB954300)"以可持续性科学为主要依据,以有序人类活动理念为指导思想,以实地观测、模型模拟和情景分析为主要手段,揭示气候变化和人类活动的定量关系,评估气候变化条件下人类活动对区域生态系统服务和人类福祉的影响,建立气候变化—有序人类活动—区域可持续发展耦合模型,提出景观及区域尺度上人类适应全球变化的综合策略。该研究项目将有助于发展和完善景观可持续性科学,促进我国半干旱地区主动适应全球气候变化的土地系统设计的理论和实践。     

全民所有自然资源资产管理考核评价机制与方法研究

本文采用对比分析与归纳分析法,在明确全民所有自然资源资产管理考核评价机制定位的基础上,充分借鉴和参考现有相关考核评价制度的设计思路,围绕“考核谁、谁来考、怎么考、考什么、结果怎么定、结果怎么用”等关键问题,从考核评价对象和实施主体、考核评价方式和实施、考核评价结果应用、考核评价内容和指标体系构建、考核评价结果评定方法等方面,提出构建全民所有自然资源资产管理考核评价机制和方法的思路,为推进生态文明建设和自然资源资产产权制度改革提供支撑。     

基于SPA的喀斯特地区水安全评价——以贵州省为例

根据目前公认的水安全内涵,将水安全分为三个子系统。水资源子系统、水环境子系统和水灾害子系统。三者相互联系、相互作用,形成了复杂、时变的水安全系统。基于水安全的基本原理和喀斯特区域特有的水循环机理,依据 “驱动力（D）—压力（P）—状态（S）—影响（I）—响应（R）”模型建立了贵州省喀斯特区域水安全评价指标体系。基于集对分析理论,引入能够体现系统确定性和不确定性的同异反联系度计算公式,建立了城市水安全的评价模型。将集对分析法运用到水安全的评价中, 可以先通过计算评价样本与评价指标之间的联系度对样本作初步的排序, 再对样本作进一步的同一、差异、对立的集对分析,以判断出评价样本的等级。研究结果表明:（1）在水资源安全状态方面,贵州省9个州市中4个处于安全状态,2个处于基本安全状态,2个处于不安全状态,1个处于危机状态;（2）在水环境安全状态方面,2个处于安全状态,4个处于基本安全,3个处于不安全;（3）在水灾害安全状态方面,1个处于非常安全,4个处于安全,1个处于基本安全,2个处于不安全,1个处于危机;（4）在水安全综合状态下,有3个处于安全状态,有4个处于基本安全状态,有2个处于不安全状态,没有处于非常安全和危机状态。      

Deepwater Turbidite Lobe Deposits: A Review of the Research Frontiers

Deepwater/deep-marine turbidite lobes are the most distal part of a siliciclastic depositional system and hold the largest sediment accumulation on the seafloor. As many giant hydrocarbon provinces have been discovered within deepwater lobe deposits, they represent one of the most promising exploration targets for hydrocarbon industry. Deepwater exploration is characterized by high cost, high risk but insufficient data because of the deep/ultra–deepwater depth. A thorough understanding of the deepwater turbidite lobe architecture, hierarchy, stacking pattern and internal facies distribution is thus vital. Recently, detailed outcrop characterizations and high–resolution seismic studies have both revealed that the deepwater lobe deposits are characterized into four–fold hierarchical arrangements from "beds", to "lobe elements", to "lobes" and to "lobe complex". Quantitative compilations have shown that hierarchical components of lobe deposits have similar length to width ratios but different width to thickness ratios depending on different turbidite systems. At all hierarchical scales, sand–prone hierarchical lobe units are always separated by mud–prone bounding units except when the bounding units are eroded by their overlying lobe units thus giving rise to vertical amalgamation and connectivity. Amalgamations often occur at more proximal regions suggesting high flow energy. A mixed flow behavior may occur towards more distal regions, resulting in deposition of "hybrid event beds". These synthesized findings could(1) help understand the lobe reservoir distribution and compartmentalization therefore benefit the exploration and development of turbidite lobes within the deep marine basins(e.g. South China Sea) and(2) provide rules and quantitative constraints on reservoir modeling. In addition, the findings associated with deepwater turbidite lobes might be a good starting point to understand the sedimentology, architecture and hierarchy of turbidites in deep lacustrine environment.     

Integrated multi-parameter approach for delineating groundwater potential zones in a crystalline aquifer of southern India

Groundwater resources in the semi-arid regions of southern India are under immense pressure due to large-scale groundwater abstraction vis-à-vis meager rainfall recharge. Therefore, understanding and evaluating the spatial distribution of groundwater is essential for viable utilization of the resource. Here, we assess groundwater potential at the watershed scale, in a semi-arid environment with crystalline aquifer system without a perennial surface water source using remote sensing, geophysical, and GIS-based integrated multi-parameter approach. GIS-based weighed overlay analysis is performed with input parameters, viz., geology, geomorphology, lineament density, land use, soil, drainage density, slope, and aquifer thickness. The watershed is categorized into four zones, namely, “very good” (GWP4), “good” (GWP3), “moderate” (GWP2), and “low” (GWP1) in terms of groundwater potential. Overall, ~?70% of the study area falls under moderate to low groundwater potential, indicating a serious threat to the future availability of the resource. Therefore, serious measures are required for maintaining aquifer resilience in this over-exploited aquifer (e.g., restricting groundwater withdrawal from GWP1 and GWP2 zones). Further, as the aquifer is under tremendous anthropogenic pressure, rainwater harvesting and artificial recharge during monsoon are advocated for sustainable aquifer management. Due to the direct dependence of crop production vis-à-vis farmer economy on groundwater, this study is an important step towards sustainable groundwater management and can be applied in diverse hydrological terrains.     

Effect of prohibiting grazing policy in northern China: a case study of Yanchi County

The prohibiting grazing policy (PGP) of the government “one size fits all” achieved certain effects, but also brought a series of issues. This article used a case study in the middle north of China to focus on the comparative study of three different degrees of illegal livestock grazing management patterns formed after PGP. The causes and characteristics of the illegal behavior and the impact to grassland ecosystem, social, and economic system were studied. The results showed that resource endowments and interest driven were the main causes for illegal grazing. The eco-economic analysis of “continuous grazing” pattern was poor, whereas the “breeding zone” and “barn feeding” pattern were relatively good. Grassland use still has great potential, and management patterns need to change.     

Assessment of agricultural groundwater users in Iran: a cultural environmental bias

Many environmental problems are rooted in human behavior. This study aimed to explore the causal effect of cultural environmental bias on ‘sustainable behavior’ among agricultural groundwater users in Fars province, Iran, according to Klockner’s comprehensive model. A survey-based research project was conducted to gathering data on the paradigm of environmental psychology. The sample included agricultural groundwater users (n = 296) who were selected at random within a structured sampling regime involving study areas that represent three (higher, medium and lower) bounds of the agricultural-groundwater-vulnerability spectrum. Results showed that the “environment as ductile (EnAD)” variable was a strong determinant of sustainable behavior as it related to groundwater use, and that EnAE had the highest causal effect on the behavior of agricultural groundwater users. The adjusted model explained 41% variance of “groundwater sustainable behavior”. Based on the results, the groundwater sustainable behaviors of agricultural groundwater users were found to be affected by personal and subjective norm variables and that they are influenced by casual effects of the “environment as ductile (EnAD)” variable. The conclusions reflect the Fars agricultural groundwater users’ attitude or worldview on groundwater as an unrecoverable resource; thus, it is necessary that scientific disciplines like hydrogeology and psycho-sociology be considered together in a comprehensive approach for every groundwater study.     

Principles of major classification of natural waters

The article presents some interesting, highly controversial, but well documented, ideas on the genesis of natural waters and their subsequent evolution. “Endothegenic” is embraced as a better name for what has long been called “juvenile” water. “Biogenic” waters include all other waters of various origins, except “cosmic” waters which are extra-global. Subclasses of water should be defined on basis of principal anion(s) and on physical criteria such as temperature or isotopic composition. — B.N. Cooper.     

Up-scaling of impact dependent loss distributions: a hybrid convolution approach for flood risk in Europe

This paper introduces a new method to up-scale dependent loss distributions from natural hazards to higher spatial levels, explicitly incorporating their dependency structure over the aggregation process. The method is applied for flood risk in Europe. Based on this “hybrid convolution” approach, flood loss distributions for nearly all European countries are calculated and presented. Such risk-based estimates of extreme event losses are useful for determining suitable risk management strategies on various spatial levels for different risk bearers. The method is not only applicable for natural disaster risk but can be extended for other cases as well, i.e., where comonotonic risks have to be “summed up” without loss of risk information.     

Factors useful for predicting future mineral-commodity supply trends

The analysis of various factors influencing mineral availability documents future short-and long-term mineral-commodity supply trends. The lifetime of reserves, the development of the relative importance of production centres and the forecasting of the depletion of a resource base are mainly geological factors, although the category “reserves”, in contrast to “resources”, is determined by technical and economical aspects. These three factors govern the short-and long-term supply of mineral commodities. The intensity-of-use factors and the growth rate of consumption are variables related to the demand of mineral commodities. They influence the decision of companies for certain commodities as targets for exploration and investment in production centres. Both factors control the short-to medium-term mineral supply. Finally, the lead time to production is a technical variable, although influenced by ore deposit type, and controls short-term mineral availability.