Space Weather: Physics,Effects and Predictability

The time varying conditions in the near-Earth space environment that may affect space-borne or ground-based technological systems and may endanger human health or life are referred to as space weather. Space weather effects arise from the dynamic and highly variable conditions in the geospace environment starting from explosive events on the Sun (solar flares), Coronal Mass Ejections near the Sun in the interplanetary medium, and various energetic effects in the magnetosphere–ionosphere–atmosphere system. As the utilization of space has become part of our everyday lives, and as our lives have become increasingly dependent on technological systems vulnerable to the space weather influences, the understanding and prediction of hazards posed by these active solar events have grown in importance. In this paper, we review the processes of the Sun–Earth interactions, the dynamic conditions within the magnetosphere, and the predictability of space weather effects on radio waves, satellites and ground-based technological systems today.     

Interplanetary medium condition effects in the South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly: A case study

One way to investigate the magnetosphere–ionosphere coupling is through the simultaneous observation of different parameters measured at different locations of the geospace environment and try to determine some relationships among them. The main objective of this work is to examine how the solar energetic particles and the interplanetary medium conditions may affect the space and time configuration of the ring current at low-latitudes and also to get a better understanding on how these particles interfere with the lower ionosphere in the South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly region (SAMA). To accomplish this, the cosmic noise absorption (CNA) and the horizontal component of the Earth's magnetic field data measured from sites located in the SAMA region were compared with the proton and electron fluxes, interplanetary medium conditions (solar wind and the north–south component of the interplanetary magnetic field measured on board satellites), the SYM-H index and magnetometer data from Kakioka (KAK-Japan), located significantly outside the SAMA region. The time series analyzed correspond to the geomagnetic disturbance that occurred on August 25–30, 1998. The analysis was performed by implementing wavelet techniques, with particular attention to singularities detection, which highlights the presence of transient signals. The results are discussed in terms of the first three wavelet decomposition levels of the parameters. The magnitude of wavelet coefficients of the solar wind and proton flux at the two energy ranges analyzed is timely well correlated, indicating that these two signals are energetically linked. The larger wavelet coefficient amplitude of KAK and VSS magnetograms shows time delays that are compatible with an asymmetric configuration of the ring current, considering that at the storm time, VSS was at the dawn sector of the magnetosphere and KAK at the dusk side. The wavelet analysis of CNA signals reveals that the signal may be sensitive to the ionization produced by energetic electrons and protons as well. The time delays observed in wavelet coefficients may give an indication of the different accelerating process to which the particles are submitted when traveling along the magnetic field lines, from higher to lower latitudes, and the likely contribution of these particles to the ionization measured as an absorption of the cosmic noise in the lower ionosphere.     

中国空间天气研究进展

空间天气指太阳、行星际空间和地球空间(地球磁层、电离层、热层和中高层大气)的状态及其变化,它能够影响到天基和地基技术系统的运行和可靠性,危及人类的生存.空间天气计划包括观测和资料分析,研究和数值建模,预报和服务.本文评述了近十年来我国空间天气研究中的一些重要成果.     

Review of electromagnetic coupling between the Earth's atmosphere and the space environment

We review our understanding of the electrical properties of the lower and upper atmosphere along with various possible sources of the electromagnetic energy near and far above the Earth's surface. The transport of electromagnetic energy from the atmosphere to the ionosphere and then to the magnetosphere and back to the Earth's surface via ionosphere and lower atmosphere is discussed. The electromagnetic coupling of various regions is also discussed.     

Multiscale MHD simulation of a coronal mass ejection and its interaction with the magnetosphere–ionosphere system

We report on the first comprehensive numerical simulation of a space weather event, starting with the generation of a CME and subsequently following this transient solar wind disturbance as it evolves into a magnetic cloud and travels through interplanetary space towards Earth where its interaction with the terrestrial magnetosphere–ionosphere system is also predicted as part of the simulation.     

The Dicke cycle: A ∼27-day solar oscillation

Measurements of solar EUV irradiance show, besides the ～11-year Schwabe cycle, a series of oscillations with a ～27-day period. They are generally explained by the passage of active regions across the solar surface resulting from the Sun's rotation, but the calculated amplitude underestimates the observed long-term variation in irradiance (Lean 1991). The variant of this model proposed here is modulation of EUV emission from the corona by rotation of the Sun's radiative zone. The response would be immediate, raising the prospect of short-term forecasting of EUV effects on space weather and on the Earth's atmospheric circulation.     

Considerations regarding solar and lunar modulation of geophysical parameters,atmospheric electricity and thunderstorms

Summary The basic thesis of this paper is that the proper scope of meteorology should include, besides the earth's atmosphere, the sun's atmosphere (the solar corona), the associated interplanetary magnetic field, and lunar modulation of this environment. Recent advances in space science have enabled us to make direct measurements in this region for the first time. The shape and characteristics of the magnetosphere have been completely redefined during the last ten years from a simple magnetic dipole to the present model with an elongated tail stretched out by the solar wind. The interplanetary magnetic field has been defined with its spiral structure and sectors tied into the solar surface. This provides a magnetic link between the sun and earth. It is probable that extra-terrestrial factors do play a role in regulating weather, although the extent of this influence remains to be determined. Possibly such effects are most significant or easily detectable in the realm of atmospheric electricity. In view of the limitations in our present knowledge of all the variables responsible for regulating weather, it would seem appropriate to pursue the study of extra-terrestrial influences. Such research could lead to a better understanding of atmospheric circulation, precipitation mechanisms and thunderstorms. The field of meteorology which might particularly benefit from such research is long range weather forecasting.     

我国空间物理研究进展

经过多年的建设与努力,我国日地空间物理与空间天气领域的研究呈现蓬勃的发展态势.《地球物理学报》以空间物理为专辑,集中在2014年11期刊发38篇文章,涵盖了基于"子午工程"观测数据分析在内的空间物理和空间天气方面的一批最新研究成果.这些工作涉及电离层、中高层大气、地磁与磁层、太阳及太阳风等学科方向,还有两篇工作涉及行星空间环境.本文将从这五个学科方向简要地介绍收入专辑的这些工作.     

Solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling and chaotic dynamics

Electromagnetic fields and currents connect various regions of the earth's near space environment extending upto the magnetopause. Realization of this fact has lead to the concept of Global Electric Circuit (GEC) to describe the electromagnetic environment of the earth's atmosphere. Solar wind - magnetosphere - ionosphere coupling forms a vital component of GEC. Magnetospheric substorms represent a global interaction between the solar wind, the magetosphere, and the ionosphere. This article gives an overview of the solar wind - magnetosphere- ionosphere coupling processes with emphasis on the nonlinear particle dynamics in the magnetotail. Those aspects of the substorm processes which involve the chaotic dynamics are highlighted. Various methods based on nonlinear particle dynamics, linear prediction filtering techniques, phase space reconstruction techniques, and dynamical anologue models of geomagnetic activity are reviewed. It is shown that the solar wind- magnetosphere - ionosphere system behaves as a strongly coupled nonlinear dynamical system which could be driven from regular to chaotic behavior with low dimensionality when the solar wind forcing is strong enough.     

A Lunar-based Soft X-ray Imager(LSXI) for the Earth's magnetosphere

We propose to use the Moon as a platform to obtain a global view of Earth's magnetosphere by a Lunar-based Soft X-ray Imager(LSXI). LSXI is a wide field-of-view Soft X-ray telescope, which can obtain X-ray images of Earth's magnetosphere based on the solar wind charge exchange(SWCX) X-ray emission. Global perspective is crucial to understand the overall interaction of the solar wind with magnetosphere. LSXI is capable of continuously monitoring the evolution of geospace conditions under the impact of the solar wind by simultaneous observation of the bow shock, magnetosheath,magnetopause and cusps for the first time. This proposal is answering the call for the Chinese Lunar Exploration Program Phase IV.     

Outstanding issues of ring current dynamics

The terrestrial ring current consists of energetic charged particles flowing toroidally around the Earth, and creating a ring of westward electric current, centered at the equatorial plane and extending from geocentric distances of about 3–8R_E. Changes in this current are responsible for global decreases in the Earth's surface magnetic field, which is the defining feature of geomagnetic storms. The ring current is a critical element in understanding the onset and development of space weather disturbances in geospace. This review paper discusses recent developments in ring current research, and outlines the presently hottest issues, most of which were addressed at the Ring Current Symposium of the First S-RAMP Conference held in Sapporo, Japan, in October 2000.     

Investigating dynamic coupling in geospace through the combined use of modeling,simulations and data analysis

Comprehensive understanding of the dynamics of the coupled solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere system is of utmost interest, both from the perspective of solar system astrophysics and geophysics research and from the perspective of space applications. The physical processes involved in the dynamical evolution of this complex coupled system are pertinent not only for the Sun-Earth connection, but also for major phenomena in other astrophysical systems. Furthermore, the conditions in geospace collectively termed space weather affect the ever increasing technological assets of mankind in space and therefore need to be understood, quantified and efficiently forecasted. The present collaborative paper communicates recent advances in geospace dynamic coupling research through modeling, simulations and data analysis and discusses future directions.     

Interplanetary Shocks, Magnetopause Boundary Layers and Dayside Auroras: The Importance of a Very Small Magnetospheric Region

Dayside near-polar auroral brightenings occur when interplanetary shocks impinge upon the Earth's magnetosphere. The aurora first brightens near local noon and then propagates toward dawn and dusk along the auroral oval. The propagation speed of this wave of auroral light is 10 km s^-1 in the ionosphere. This speed is comparable to the solar wind speed along the outer magnetosphere. The fundamental shock-magnetospheric interaction occurs at the magnetopause and its boundary layer. Several physical mechanisms transferring energy from the solar wind directly to the magnetosphere and from the magnetosphere to the ionosphere are reviewed. The same physical processes can occur at other solar system magnetospheres. We use the Haerendel (1994) formulation to estimate the acceleration of energetic electrons to 50 keV in the Jovian magnetosphere/ionosphere. Auroral brightenings by shocks could be used as technique to discover planets in other stellar systems.     

The evolving concept of a magnetospheric substorm

A magnetospheric substorm is an episode of energy transport and dissipation in the Earth|s ionosphere and mag- netosphere which takes place in response to a time limited increase in energy input from the solar wind to the magnetosphere. For the past few decades, scientists have tried to understand the physical processes which take place that are responsible for the substorm disturbances of the geospace environment. In this paper, The development of the substorm concept is reviewed from its origins at the beginning of the 20th century to the present time. The theoretical framework in which substorm physics is normally presented is then discussed, and an outline is given of how that framework has changed in recent times. This paper concludes by posing two questions which need to be answered if further progress is to be made in solving the substorm problem.     

From discovery to prediction of magnetospheric processes

Over the last 50 years magnetospheric research has transferred its focus from geomagnetism to space physics, or from inferring the intensity of extraterrestrial currents, through discoveries of the main plasma regions in the magnetosphere, to predicting the processes occurring in the entire solar wind–magnetosphere–ionosphere system. Relating advances in magnetospheric physics to the framework of substorm research, this review paper demonstrates that the “recent” space age since 1960s consisted of (1) an exploratory/discovery phase in which the magnetotail, the plasma sheet, and the acceleration region of auroral particles were identified, and (2) a phase of comprehensive understanding in which we have attempted to comprehend the nature and significance of the near-Earth space environment. This progress in solar-terrestrial physics has coincided with a number of new discoveries of solar and interplanetary phenomena such as magnetic clouds, coronal mass ejections and coronal holes. Computer simulation techniques have been developed to the degree that satellite observations from a very limited number of points can be used to trace and reproduce the main energy processes. We are now entering a new phase in which we hope to be able to predict the dynamic processes that take place in the solar-terrestrial environment.     

Vertical current flow through extensive layer clouds

The global atmospheric electrical circuit sustains a vertical current density between the ionosphere and the Earth's surface, the existence of which is well-established from measurements made in fair-weather conditions. In overcast, but non-thunderstorm, non-precipitating conditions, the current travels through the cloud present, despite cloud layers having low electrical conductivity. For extensive layer clouds, this leads to space charge at the upper and lower cloud boundaries. Using a combination of atmospheric electricity and solar radiation measurements at three UK sites, vertical current measurements have been categorised into clear, broken, and overcast cloud conditions. This approach shows that the vertical “fair weather” current is maintained despite the presence of cloud. In fully overcast conditions with thick cloud, the vertical current is reduced compared to thin cloud overcast conditions, associated with the cloud's resistance contributions. Contribution of cloud to the columnar resistance depends both on cloud thickness, and the cloud's height.     

Multiple scales in auroral plasmas

A review of the observed space scales of the auroral features ranging from the whole auroral oval of bright discrete forms down to the nonlinear moving solitary structures with the scales of the order of Debye length is given. The characteristic physical scale which determines the generation process is indicated whenever possible. Some problems of the auroral theory and modeling are briefly discussed, and a cross-scale coupling between the auroral and magnetospheric altitudes is stressed. It becomes apparent that the first in situ studied real astrophysical plasma object—the Earth's magnetosphere/ionosphere/aurora—is a unified multi-scale system which seems to be ordered at large scales, but sometimes looks as nearly nondeterministic, or chaotic, at small scales. The most powerful processes in this system operate in a very wide range of scales, with multifarious cross-scale couplings. The statistical behavior of magnetospheric/auroral plasmas in the regions of active auroras often can be reasonably described as the near-critical state.     

Chung Park,pioneer of magnetosphere–ionosphere coupling research

Chung Park (1938–2003) was a true pioneer of magnetosphere–ionosphere coupling research. During a short career at Stanford University that began in 1970 and ended in 1981, he wrote seminal papers on several topics. Using ground-based whistler data, he was the first to demonstrate experimentally that day-side upward ion flow from the mid-latitude ionosphere was sufficient to maintain the night-time ionosphere. He made the only measurements to date of longitudinally localized drainage of significant quantities of plasmaspheric plasma into the underlying ionosphere during a period of enhanced convection activity. He pioneered in demonstrating the presence at ionospheric heights of geophysically important electric fields that originate in the troposphere in thunderstorm centers. He cooperated in a unique study of the guidance of whistler-mode waves by field-aligned density irregularities (ducts) in the magnetosphere. Park provided unique observational data on nonlinear wave–particle interaction processes such as: (i) the development of sidebands during the injection of whistler-mode waves from Siple, Antarctica, and (ii) the mysterious whistler precursor phenomenon. Today, in spite of the several decades that have elapsed since his work, Park's early findings remain cornerstones of our understanding of magnetosphere–ionosphere coupling processes. Some of his later studies of non-linear magnetospheric wave–particle interaction phenomena have stirred lively debate, and today remain relevant to a number of topics in space plasma wave research.     

Modelling of space weather effects on pipelines

The interaction between the solar wind and the Earth's magnetic field produces time varying currents in the ionosphere and magnetosphere. The currents cause variations of the geomagnetic field at the surface of the earth and induce an electric field which drives currents in oil and gas pipelines and other long conductors. Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) interfere with electrical surveys of pipelines and possibly contribute to pipeline corrosion.In this paper, we introduce a general method which can be used to determine voltage and current profiles for buried pipelines, when the external geoelectric field and the geometry and electromagnetic properties of the pipeline are known. The method is based on the analogy between pipelines and transmission lines, which makes it possible to use the distributed source transmission line (DSTL) theory. The general equations derived for the current and voltage profiles are applied in special cases. A particular attention is paid to the Finnish natural gas pipeline network.This paper, related to a project about GIC in the Finnish pipeline, thus provides a tool for understanding space weather effects on pipelines. Combined with methods of calculating the geoelectric field during magnetic storms, the results are applicable to forecasting of geomagnetically induced currents and voltages on pipelines in the future.     

Prospects for Solar and Space Weather Research with Polish Part of the LOFAR Telescope

The LOw-Frequency ARray (LOFAR) is a new radio interferometer that consists of an array of stations. Each of them is a phase array of dipole antennas. LOFAR stations are distributed mostly in the Netherlands, but also throughout Europe. In the article we discuss the possibility of using this instrument for solar and space weather studies, as well as ionosphere investigations. We are expecting that in the near future the LOFAR telescope will bring some interesting observations and discoveries in these fields. It will also help to observe solar active events that have a direct influence on the near-Earth space weather.