Comparison between IRI-2001 predictions and observed measurements of hmF2 over three high latitude stations during different solar activity periods

The monthly median values of the height of peak electron density of the F2-layer (hmF2) derived from ionosonde measurements at three high latitude stations, namely Narssarssuaq (NAR) (61.2 °N, 314.6 °E), Sondrestrom (SON) (67°N, 309.1°E) and College (COL) (69.9°N, 212.2°E) were analyzed and compared with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2001) model, using Comité Consultatif International des Radio communications) (CCIR and Union Radio-Scientifique Internationale (URSI) options. The analysis covers hmF2 values for March Equinox (February, March, April), June Solstice (May, June, July), September Equinox (August, September, October), and December Solstice (November, December, January), during periods of high (2000–2001), medium (2004–2005) and low (2007–2008) solar activity. Generally, the IRI-2001 prediction follow fairly well the diurnal and seasonal variation patterns of the observed values of hmF2 at all the stations. However, IRI-2001 overestimates and underestimates hmF2 at different times of the day for all solar activity periods and in all the seasons considered. The percentage deviation never exceeded 20%, except during DEC SOLS at COL and SON and during MARCH EQUI at SON during low solar activity period. For all solar activity periods considered, both the URSI and CCIR options of the IRI-2001 model give hmF2 values close to the ones measured, but the URSI option performed better than the CCIR option.     

Validation of IRI-2007 against TEC observations during low solar activity over Indian sector

Published values of Total Electron Content (TEC) measured by ATS-6 are used to assess the latest available IRI-2007 model during solar minimum over Indian sector covering equatorial to low-mid-latitudes stations. The study reveals that during all seasons and at all locations, in general, the TEC predicted by NeQuick and IRI01-corr options provided in the IRI-2007 model shows much better agreement with the TEC observations as compared to those generated by IRI-2001.option. TEC predicted using NeQuick option found to be little more closer to the observation except at equatorial station during daytime, while IRI-2001 option highly overestimates the TEC in all seasons and times.     

Comparisons of observed ionospheric F2 peak parameters with IRI-2001 predictions over South Africa

The monthly means of the ionospheric F2 peak parameters (foF2 and hmF2) over three stations in South Africa (Grahamstown, 33.3°S, 26.5°E, Madimbo, 22.4°S, 26.5°E, and Louisvale, 28.5°S, 21.2°E) were analyzed and compared with IRI-2001, using CCIR (Comité Consultatif International des Radio communications) and URSI (Union Radio-Scientifique Internationale coefficients) options. The analysis covers a few selected quiet and disturbed days during various seasons represented by the months of January, April, July and October 2003. IRI-2001 generally overestimates hmF2 for both quiet and disturbed days and it overestimates and underestimates foF2 at different times for all the stations. In general, foF2 is predicted more accurately by IRI-2001 than hmF2, and on average, the CCIR option performed better than the URSI option when predicting both foF2 and hmF2.In general, the model generates good results, although some improvements are still necessary to be implemented in order to obtain better predictions. There are no significant differences in the model predictions of hmF2 and foF2 for quiet and disturbed days.     

Time delays in the correlation between solar activity and the F2 region plasma frequency

The upper ionosphere electron density characterized by the critical frequency foF2 is correlated with solar activity when using monthly medians or averages from longer intervals. When shorter intervals are studied, time delays of different lengths in solar activity effects in the ionosphere are observed. The correlation between the foF2 values and the solar radiation intensity, given by the F10.7 index, is studied using the 1967–2003 data of mid-latitude ionosonde stations spaced at distances greater than 100° in geographical longitude. At which longitude the reaction of foF2 to the changes in solar activity appears sooner depends on the position of the interval studied in the 22-year solar cycle.     

A comparison of results derived from scaling VS chirp-ionosonde ionograms with the international reference ionosphere (IRI)

The results derived from processing vertical-incidence ionograms obtained with the chirp-ionosonde at Irkutsk for different winter time intervals (February) and at equinox are presented. The peak height hmF2 was determined by Dudeney's formula based on ionogram parameters, including the coefficient M(3000). The algorithm is suggested for determining the coefficient M(3000) in the automatic mode using the conventional form of the transfer curve method without invoking a standard transparency called the “transfer curve”. The parameters foF2 and hmF2 are compared with the international reference ionosphere (IRI-95) model. It is found that in most cases the values of the foF2 and hmF2 parameters, calculated in the IRI-95 model, are similar to the median ones. It is confirmed that for practical purposes where it is necessary to know the radio wave propagation conditions along the propagation path, the IRI model is convenient and attractive.     

The Ionospheric foF2 Data over Istanbul and their Response to Solar Activity for the Years 1964–1969 and 1993

A Polish-made vertical ionosonde (VI) has been operated at the Kandilli Observatory in Istanbul, for almost one year (May 1993 - April 1994) as part of the COST 238, PRIME Project, The critical frequencies were obtained for every half-hour interval. The data obtained during this campaign, on the descending branch of solar cycle 22, and the data measured earlier in Istanbul for cycle 20 were analysed and the characteristic behaviour of the F2 region ionosphere over Istanbul has been determined. This is a unique data set for this area. Several markers of the solar cycle activities in terms of the daily relative sunspot numbers, F10.7 cm solar radio flux and solar flare index, and the magnetic daily index of Ap were then used to seek the possible influence of the solar and ionospheric activities on the critical frequencies observed in Istanbul. It was found that the solar flare index, as a solar activity index, was more reliable in determining quiet ionospheric days. It is shown that the minimum and maximum time values of the solar activity are more convenient for ionospheric prediction and modelling.     

Bottomside profile shape parameters during low solar activity and comparisons with IRI-2007 model

Modern digital ionosonde measurements at low–middle latitude station, New Delhi, India, are used to assess the IRI-2007 model for the bottomside profile shape parameters B0 and B1 during solar minimum. Comparative analysis shows that in general, the IRI (B0 Table) option reveals better agreement with the B0 observations during daytime in all the seasons, while outside this time period, the IRI (Gulyaeva) predicted B0 values are closer to the observations. For B1 parameter, both the options in the IRI reproduce similar diurnal variations in all the seasons and are closer to observed values except during pre-sunrise and post-sunset hours.     

A Comparison of IRI-2016 foF2 Predictions with the Observations at Different Latitudes During Geomagnetic Storms

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - This study investigates the impacts of geomagnetic storms on the performance of the International Reference Ionosphere 2016 (IRI-2016) foF2 predictions at different...     

Results of foF2 and Ne-h profiles at low latitude using recent digital ionosonde observations and their comparison with IRI-2000

Using digital ionosonde observations at low-latitude station, Delhi (28.6 N, 77.2 E, mag. dip 42.4 N), the diurnal and seasonal variations of the critical frequency of F2 layer (foF2) are analyzed from August 2000 to July 2001 during a high solar activity period. Also, noontime bottomside electron density (Ne-h) profiles, below the F2-peak, are derived from ionogram, using the POLAN (Report UAG-93, WDC-A, for Solar Terrestrial Physics, Boulder, Co.) program during the same period, and these profiles are then normalized to the peak height and density (hmF2, NmF2) of the F2-region. These observations are used to assess the predictability of the International Reference Ionosphere, IRI-2000 model (Radio Sc. 36(2) (2001) 261). Results show in general, a large variability, (1σ, σ is standard deviation), in foF2 during nighttime than daytime during winter and equinox, the variability of foF2 about the mean is about ±25% by night and ±15% by day. The IRI model shows a fairly good agreement with foF2 observations during daytime, however during nighttime, the discrepancies between the two exist. Comparative studies of the normalized observed profiles with those obtained with the IRI model (Bilitza, 2001) using both the options namely: Gulyaeva's (Adv. Space Res. 7 (1987) 39) model and B0-Table (Adv. Space Res. 25(1) (2000) 89), show that during all the seasons, in general, the B0-Tab option, reveals a better agreement with the observations, while the IRI model using Gulyaeva's option, overestimates the electron density distribution during summer and equinox, however, during winter, the model is close to the observations. The comparisons of average profile shape parameters (B0,B1) derived from noontime observed profiles, with those obtained, using B0-Tab option, in the IRI model, show a good agreement during all the seasons. However, B0, B1 obtained, using Gulyaeva's option in the IRI model, show a disagreement with the derived B0, B1 values during all the seasons, except during winter, for B0 parameter.     

Dynamics of the large-scale open solar magnetic field and its specific features in the zone of the main active longitudes in 2006–2012

The dynamics of the absolute global values (Φ) of the large-scale open solar magnetic field (LOSMF) fluxes at an interval of one solar rotation in 2006–2012 has been studied based on the Wilcox Solar Observatory data and using the ISOPAK original package for modeling the solar magnetic field. The reference points and the duration of the final quasi-biennial interval in cycle 23 (January 2006–May 2007; 17 months) and the phases of the cycle 24 minimum (May 2007–November 2009; 30 months), growth (November 2009–May 2012; 30 months), and the beginning of the maximum (May 2012–January 2013) have been determined. It has been indicated that the absolute values (Φ) decreased sharply at the beginning of the minimum, growth, and the maximum phases to ～(2, 1.25, 0.75) × 10²² Mx, respectively. During the entire minimum phase, LOSMF corotated super-quasi-rigidly westward in the direction of solar rotation; at the beginning of the growth phase, this field started corotating mostly eastward. The LOSMF polarity reversal in the current cycle 24 started in May–June 2012 (CR 2123–2124), when fields of southern polarity rushed from the Sun’s southern hemisphere toward the north. The statement that the solar cycle is a continuous series of quasi-biennial LOSMF intervals is confirmed. In particular, the minimum and growth phases are characterized by opposite LOSMF rotation directions, i.e., super-quasi-rigid corotation (twisting) and detwisting, with identical duration at least in cycle 24.     

Comparison between IRI predictions and digital ionosonde measurements of hmF2 at New Delhi during low and moderate solar activity

This paper deals with the diurnal and seasonal variations of height of the peak electron density of the F2-layer (hmF2) derived from digital ionosonde measurements at a low–middle-latitude station, New Delhi (28.6°N, 77.2°E, dip 42.4°N). Diurnal and seasonal variations of hmF2 are examined and comparisons of the observations are made with the predictions of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2001) model. Our study shows that during both the moderate and low solar activity periods, the diurnal pattern of median hmF2 reveals a more or less similar trend during all the seasons with pre-sunrise and daytime peaks during winter and equinox except during summer, where the pre-sunrise peak is absent. Comparison of observed median hmF2 values with the IRI during moderate and low solar activity periods, in general, reveals an IRI overestimation in hmF2 during all the seasons for local times from about 06 LT till midnight hours except during summer for low solar activity, while outside this time period, the observed hmF2 values are close to the IRI predictions. The hmF2 representation in the IRI model does not reproduce pre-sunrise peaks occurring at about 05 LT during winter and equinox as seen in the observations during both the solar activity periods. The noontime observed median hmF2 values increase by about 10–25% from low (2004–2005) to high solar activity (2001–2002) during winter and equinox, while the IRI in the same time period and seasons shows an increase of about 10–20%. During summer, however, the observed noontime median hmF2 values show a little increase with the solar activity, as compared to the IRI with an increase of about 12%.     

foF2月中值太阳循环变化及单站谱模型研究

利用我国9个电离层观测站第21和22太阳周大约20年的foF2月中值数据,分析太阳活动和地磁活动对电离层foF2的影响,结果显示白天和夏季夜间foF2和太阳黑子数R之间存在着明显非线性关系,并且随着纬度的降低逐渐增强.当回归分析加入地磁Ap指数时,多重回归模型与实测值误差进一步减小,说明同时考虑太阳活动和地磁活动的非线性影响能够更好地描述foF2的变化.基于foF2与太阳黑子数R及地磁指数Ap之间的非线性统计关系,利用Fourier级数建立9个单站谱模型,并与国际参考电离层IRI进行了比较,精度有一定提高.     

Energy spectrum of X-ray flares associated with sunspot groups of different classes in three solar cycles

The integral energies of flares associated with active regions of different classes of sunspot groups were calculated on the basis of direct measurements of X-ray fluxes from flares (1–8Å, GOES) for three solar cycles (1977–2007). The integral energy spectra were constructed, and their indices β were calculated for flares in active regions of each class. It was established that the value of parameter β is different for the active regions of different classes. A positive correlation between this parameter and the 11-year cycle (the Wolf number) was revealed for each class. Parameter β is related to the 22-year magnetic cycle. Our results can be used in the dynamo and flare theories.     

Evolution of energetic electron fluxes at a geostationary orbit during solar cycles 22 and 23. 27-day variations

In this paper, we consider variations in energetic electron fluxes at a geostationary orbit, which are related to the Sun’s rotation period, during two solar cycles. We use data on energetic electron fluxes obtained from the GOES (1986–2007) (>2 MeV) and LANL (1996–2007) (50–225 and 315–1500 keV) satellites. Within the solar cycle, we observed both periods of high flux peak recurrence during several rotations and periods when there was no (or a low) 27-day recurrence. We show the similarity and difference between manifestations of flux recurrences from cycle to cycle. Insignificant manifestation of recurrence and its absence were observed mainly during the solar maximum. High electron flux recurrence was observed mainly at the phase of decline in solar activity (near the solar minimum). We show that for both solar cycles, there were several days (within the Bartels rotation) during which increased energetic electron fluxes would be most likely observed.     

Variability of foF2 for an equatorial station and comparison with the foF2 maps in IRI model

In this study, foF2 data obtained from an equatorial station in West Africa were subjected to an occurrence probability distribution test. This was done on an hourly basis, for all the 24 h of the day. The results show that the probability (N_p) of predicting foF2 within the range±of a standard deviation (σ) centered on the mean (μ) is ⩾0.68 is at least about 70% of the hourly set of data considered in this study irrespective of time of the day, season or solar cycle period. The distribution is not, however, perfectly symmetrically distributed around the mean. The seasonal hourly averages of foF2 were compared with those of IRI predictions. The IRI representation was found to be very good at low and moderate solar activity for both day and nighttime when the ITU-R coefficients are used. This is also true of the daytime at high solar activity. The night time prediction is only fairly good when the URSI coefficients are used for the prediction.     

Seasonal variation of the total electron content, maximum electron density and equivalent slab thickness at a South-American station

Total electron content (TEC) and foF2 ionosonde data obtained at Tucumán (26.9°S; 65.4°W) from April 1982 to March 1983 (high solar activity period) are analyzed to show the seasonal variation of TEC, NmF2 (proportional to square of foF2) and the equivalent slab thickness EST. Bimonthly averages of the monthly median for January–February, April–May, July–August and October–November have been considered to represent summer, autumn, winter and spring seasons, respectively. The results show that the higher values of TEC and maximum electron density of F2-layer NmF2 are observed during the equinoxes (semiannual anomaly). During daytime, both in TEC and in NmF2 the seasonal or winter anomaly can be seen. At nighttime, this effect is not observed. Also, the observed NmF2 values are used to check the validity of International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) to predict the seasonal variability of this parameter. In general, it is found that averaged monthly medians (obtained with the IRI model) overestimate averaged monthly median data for some hours of the day and underestimate for the other hours.     

Critical frequency foF2 as an indicator of trends in thermospheric dynamics

Variations with time during recent decades of three parameters are considered. R(foF2) is the correlation coefficient between the nighttime and daytime values of foF2 within the same day. Stable trends are found for minimal (R(foF2)(min)) and maximal (R(foF2)(max)) values of R(foF2) over the year. The foF2(day)/foF2(night) ratio demonstrates both negative and positive trends; the sign of the trend being governed by the inclination I and declination D of the magnetic field. The correlation coefficient r(h,fo) between foF2 and the 100-hPa level in the stratosphere demonstrates a decrease (both, for the years of maximum and minimum solar activity) from the 1980s to the 1990s. The trends in all three groups of data are considered in the scope of an assumption that there is a long-term change in the circulation in the upper atmosphere. The data considered in the paper provide an indirect confirmation of the existence of this change and show the possibility that further studies of the thermospheric dynamics can be undertaken using ground-based ionospheric observations.     

Quiet-time variations of F2-layer parameters at Jicamarca and comparison with IRI-2001 during solar minimum

We analyze Jicamarca ionograms to study the quiet-condition variations in the peak electron density (NmF2), its height (hmF2), and F2-layer thickness parameter (B0) of the equatorial F2 layer during solar minimum. The sunrise peak is found in hmF2 and B0 for all months. During daytime and nighttime, the variation in the hmF2 value is mainly responsible for that in NmF2 and B0. The sunset peaks of hmF2 and B0 exist in the equinoctial months, but not in the winter months. Moreover, the observed values of hmF2, NmF2, and B0 are generally similar to the modeled values of IRI-2001.     

Solar forcing of the Northern hemisphere land air temperature: New data

It has previously been demonstrated that the mean land air temperature of the Northern hemisphere could adequately be associated with a long-term variation of solar activity as given by the length of the approximately 11-year solar cycle. Adding new temperature data for the 1990s and expected values for the next sunspot extrema we test whether the solar cycle length model is still adequate. We find that the residuals are now inconsistent with the pure solar model. We conclude that since around 1990 the type of Solar forcing that is described by the solar cycle length model no longer dominates the long-term variation of the Northern hemisphere land air temperature.