2014年于田MS7.3地震产生的静态库仑应力变化及对周边断层的影响

This paper calculates the static Coulomb stress changes generated by four earthquakes in the Yutian area during 2008 ~ 2014 separately, then discusses the triggering influence, their accumulated Coulomb stress changes and their influence on nearby faults. The results indicate that the Ms5. 5 earthquake in 2011 and the Ms7. 3 earthquake in 2014 are both in the regions where the Coulomb stress change is positive, the stress changes are 0. 004MPa and 0. 021MPa, respectively, meaning they are triggered by prior earthquakes. The Ms6. 2 earthquake in 2012 occurred in the place where Coulomb stress change was negative, so it is postponed by the prior earthquakes. The image of Coulomb stress changes of the Ms 7. 3 earthquake in 2014 is in accord with aftershocks （ML ≥ 3. 0 ） distribution, but some regions on the fault where the Coulomb stress change is positive have few aftershocks, and strong aftershocks may occur at these districts in future. In addition, this paper calculates the Coulomb stress change on nearby faults, and finds that the Coulomb stress changes of different elements in the GGC fault are very different, and must receive strong triggered-influence, though the result may be influenced by the input finite fault model, so there is still a large earthquake-risk. The GGN, PLC, PLW and LBW faults were also triggered by the four earthquakes occurring between 2008 ~ 2014. Their maximum Coulomb stress changes all exceed 0. 002MPa, so they also have a strong earthquake hazard.     

1994年9月16日台湾海峡7.3级地震静态库仑应力变化及断裂危险性初步研究

Using the focal mechanism solutions and slip distribution model data of the Taiwan Straits MS7.3 earthquake on September 16, 1994, we calculate the static Coulomb stress changes stemming from the earthquake. Based on the distribution of aftershocks and stress field, as well as the location of historical earthquakes, we analyze the Coulomb stress change triggered by the Taiwan Straits MS7.3 earthquake. The result shows that the static Coulomb stress change obtained by forward modeling based on the slip distribution model is quite consistent with the location of aftershocks in the areas far away from the epicenter. Ninety percent of aftershocks occurred in the stress increased areas. The Coulomb stress change is not entirely consistent with the distribution of aftershocks near the epicenter. It is found that Coulomb stress change can better reflect the aftershock distribution far away from the epicenter, while such corresponding relationship becomes quite complex near the epicenter. Through the calculation of the Coulomb stress change, we find that the stress increases in the southwest part of the Min-Yue (Fujian-Guangdong) coastal fault zone, which enhances the seismic activity. Therefore, it is deemed that the sea area between Nanpeng Island and Dongshan Island, where the Min-Yue coastal fault zone intersects with the NW-trending Shanghang-Dongshan fault, has a high seismic risk.     

Visco-elastic stress triggering model of Tangshan earthquake sequence

We calculated the Coulomb failure stress change generated by the 1976 Tangshan earthquake that is projected onto the fault planes and slip directions of large subsequent aftershocks.Results of previous studies on the seismic fail-ure distribution,crustal velocity and viscosity structures of the Tangshan earthquake are used as model constraints.Effects of the local pore fluid pressure and impact of soft medium near the fault are also considered.Our result shows that the subsequent Luanxian and Ninghe earthquakes occurred in the regions with a positive Coulomb fail-ure stress produced by the Tangshan earthquake.To study the triggering effect of the Tangshan,Luanxian,and Ninghe earthquakes on the follow-up small earthquakes,we first evaluate the possible focal mechanisms of small earthquakes according to the regional stress field and co-seismic slip distributions derived from previous studies,assuming the amplitude of regional tectonic stress as 10 MPa.By projecting the stress changes generated by the above three earthquakes onto the possible fault planes and slip directions of small earthquakes,we find that the "butterfly" distribution pattern of increased Coulomb failure stress is consistent with the spatial distribution of follow-up earthquakes,and 95% of the aftershocks occurred in regions where Coulomb failure stresses increase,indicating that the former large earthquakes modulated occurrences of follow-up earthquakes in the Tangshan earthquake sequence.This result has some significance in rapid assessment of aftershock hazard after a large earthquake.If detailed failure distribution,seismogenic fault in the focal area and their slip features can be rapidly determined after a large earthquake,our algorithm can be used to predict the locations of large aftershocks.     

以2008年汶川8.0级地震为例分析地震触发的静态库仑应力计算的不确定性

Static Coulomb stress change induced by earthquake slip is frequently used to explain earthquake activities and aftershock distribution.However,some parameters for the Coulomb stress calculation are unable to be well constrained from laboratory experiments and field observations.Different parameters may directly affect the pattern of static Coulomb stress.The static Coulomb stress changes induced by the Wenchuan earthquake calculated by six research groups are not consistent with each other.To investigate how the parameters affect the calculation results,we change the parameters in turn through modeling and compare the results of different calculation parameters.We find that gravity,position and strike of receiver faults have little influence on coseismic Coulomb stress calculations,but other parameters can change the value and sign of the results in various degrees especially around the earthquake rupture plane.Therefore the uncertainty analysis of static Coulomb stress change induced by earthquake should be taken into consideration in the earthquake hazard analysis.     

Study on the Triggering Effect of the October, 2005 Pakistan Mw7.6 Earthquake on Its Aftershocks

The influences upon aftershocks of Coulomb failure stress change (CFSC) generated by the main-shock of the October 8, 2005, Pakistan earthquake are calculated and analyzed. The following factors are included in the calculation: (1) the difference between the pore fluid pressure and the medium elastic constant in the fault plane area and those of its surrounding medium; (2) the tectonic stress direction of the seismic source area; (3) the aftershock failure mechanism of aftershocks is calculated by stacking the tectonic stress with the stress change generated by the main-shock. Our study, which includes many factors, fits fairly well with the aftershock distribution. It indicates that most of the aftershocks were triggered by the Pakistan main-shock that occurred on October 8, 2005.     

Study on Postseismic Impact of Wenchuan Earthquake on the Sichuan-Yunnan Region Based on Three-Dimensional Viscoelastic Finite Element Method

Based on the lateral segmentation and vertical stratification characteristics of the crustal medium in Sichuan-Yunnan region,and the asymmetry of the static dislocations on the coseismic fault plane of the Wenchuan M_S8. 0 earthquake,we built a three-dimensional viscoelastic finite element model of the crust in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. The postseismic impact of the Wenchuan M_S8. 0 earthquake on the Sichuan-Yunnan region was studied.The results show that:① The far-field horizontal deformation caused by the viscoelastic relaxation of the medium in the 10 years after the earthquake is about 0-20 mm within the Sichuan-Yunnan diamond-shaped block,which has a greater influence on north side and smaller on south side.② In the 10 years after the earthquake,the far-field vertical deformation caused by the viscoelastic relaxation effect of the medium is small,and it shows an increase of about 0-4 mm in most areas of the Sichuan-Yunnan diamond-shaped block.③ The Xianshuihe fault and the eastern segment of the East Kunlun fault,which are close to the seismogenic fault,show a high gradient on deformation fields after the earthquake.④ In order to compare with the strong earthquake activity in the SichuanYunnan region after the Wenchuan earthquake, the horizontal stress state and the Coulomb failure stress change of the active block boundary are also calculated. From the spatial distribution of the coseismic and postseismic displacement field,the fault activity characteristics reflected by the stress state and the stress loading of the fault layer reflected by the Coulomb failure stress change,there is a certain correlation with the spatial distribution of strong earthquake activity in this region.     

The Focal Mechanism Solutions of the M_S 8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake in Sichuan on May 12,2008 and Some of Its Aftershocks

The focal mechanism solutions of the Wenchuan earthquake(MS8.0) of May 12,2008 and some of its aftershocks occurring up to December 10,2008 are determined with lower semisphere of equal-projection and first motion sign data of P waves from regional and distant stations.The focal mechanism solutions of the MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake are:Nodal planeⅠ:strike 5°,dip angle 48°,slip angle 39°; Nodal planeⅡ:strike 247°,dip angle 62°,slip angle 131°; P axis azimuth 309°,plunge 8°,T axis azimuth 208°,plunge 54°,B axis azimuth 44°,plunge 35°.Combining geological tectonics and spatial distribution of aftershocks,nodal plane II can be identified as a seismogenic fault.According to focal mechanism solutions,the fault activity that triggered the huge earthquake is reverse thrusting.The main rupture surface is S67° W,basically identical to the fault strike on which the earthquake occurred.The main compression stress P axis is N51°W,which is basically the same as the direction of the regional tectonic stress field.According to the results of focal mechanism solutions of aftershocks,the aftershocks occurring in the southern and northern sections of the Longmenshan fault zone have predominant orientations and are obviously different.For the main shock and the early aftershocks occurring on the southern section of the Longmenshan fault,the rupturing is mainly characterized by reverse-dip slip with some strike-slip,and over time,the aftershocks migrated towards the northern section.The rupturing in the source is mainly characterized by strike-slip with some reverse-dip slips.The stress field is controlled by the main shock stress field in the southern section of the Longmenshan tectonic zone,while it is controlled by the main shock stress field and regional stress field in the northern section of the Longmenshan tectonic zone.     

Earthquake triggering and delaying caused by fault interaction on Xianshuihe fault belt,southwestern China

The coseismic Coulomb stress change caused by fault interaction and its influences on the triggering and delaying of earthquake are briefly discussed.The Xianshuihe fault belt consists of Luhuo,Daofu,Kangding,Qianning and Ganzi fault.Luohuo(Ms=7.6,1973)-Kangding(Ms=6.2,1975)-Daofu(Ms=6.9,1981)-Ms=6.0,1982)earthquake is a seismic sequence continuous on the time axis with magnitude greater than6.0.They occurred on the Luhuo.Kangding,Daofu and Ganzi fault,respectively.The coseismic Coulomb stress changes caused by each earthquake on its surrounding major faults and microcracks are calculated,and their effects on the triggering and delaying of the next earthquake and aftershocks are analyzed.It is shown that each earthquake of the sequence occurred on the fault segment with coseismic Coulomb stress increases caused by its predecessors,and most after-shocks are distributed along the microcracks with relatively larger coseismic Coulomb stress increases resulted from the main shock.With the fault interaction considered,the seismic potential of each segment along Xianshuihe fault belt is reassessed,and contrasted with those predicted results ignoring coseismic Coulomb stress change,the significance of fault interaction and its effect on triggering and delaying of earthquake are emphasized.It is con-cluded that fault interaction plays a very important role on seismic potential of Xianshuihe fault belt,and the maximal change of future earthquake probability on fault segment is up to 30.5%.     

Research on seismic stress triggering

Introduction What is called seismic stress triggering refers to that stress change tensor produced by previous earthquake projected on the fault plane and slip direction of subsequent earthquakes, taking into account normal stress, pore pressure and friction coefficient, and Coulomb failure stress change DCFS can be obtained. If the direction of Coulomb failure stress changes are consistent with slip direction of subsequent seismic mechanism, e.g., Coulomb failure stress changes are positive…     

Failure time variation derived from R-S relation： the role of the static stress perturbation

In general, earthquake cycle related to earthquake faulting could include four major processes which could be described by(1) fault locking,(2) self-acceleration or nucleation(possible foreshocks),(3) coseismic slip, and(4) post-stress relaxation and afterslip. A sudden static stress change/perturbation in the surrounding crust can advance/ delay the fault instability or failure time and modify earthquake rates. Based on a simple one-dimensional spring-slider block model with the combination of rate-and-statedependent friction relation, in this study, we have approximately derived the simple analytical solutions of clock advance/delay of fault failures caused by a sudden static Coulomb stress change applied in the different temporal evolution periods during an earthquake faulting. The results have been used in the physics-based explanation of delayed characteristic earthquake in Parkfield region, California, in which the next characteristic earthquake of M 6.0 after 1966 occurred in 2004 instead of around 1988 according to its characteristic return period of 22 years. At the same time, the analytical solutions also indicate that the time advance/ delay in Coulomb stress change derived by the dislocation model has a certain limitation and fundamental flaw. Furthermore, we discussed the essential difference between rate- and state-variable constitutive(R–S) model and Coulomb stress model used commonly in current earthquake triggering study, and demonstrated that, in fact, the Coulomb stress model could be involved in the R–S model. The results, we have obtained in this study, could be used in the development of time-dependent fault interaction model and the probability calculation related to the time-dependent and renewal earthquake prediction model.     

2010年MS7.1级玉树地震同震库仑应力变化以及对2011年MS5.2级囊谦地震的影响

2010年4月14日青海省玉树藏族自治州发生M_S7.1级地震.和传统的板内地震相比,玉树M_S7.1级地震的余震具有数量少、震级大的特点.研究玉树地震主震与余震之间的关系,对于我们了解余震的发震机理具有十分重要的参考价值.本文利用弹性位错理论和分层岩石圈模型,计算玉树地震引起的同震及震后黏弹松弛应力场变化,讨论M_S7.1级玉树地震对余震分布的影响以及与2011年囊谦M_S5.2级地震之间的触发关系.结果显示,玉树地震导致了四处明显的库仑应力增强的扇区,2010年4月13日至6月17日的870次M_L>1.0级余震主要分布于主震破裂面附近区域以及破裂面东北端的应力增强扇区.分析玉树地震对余震分布的影响时,有效摩擦系数以及计算深度的选取对计算结果的影响较小,是否考虑区域构造应力场的影响较大.考虑区域构造应力场时,占总数86.7%的余震位于库仑应力增强区,地震应力触发理论较好地解释了余震的分布.选取囊谦地震震源机制解的两个节面作为库仑应力计算中的接收断层参数,并且考虑不同黏滞系数下的玉树地震同震及震后黏弹松弛效应,模型计算结果均表明囊谦地震位于玉树地震所导致应力影区,仅依靠地震的静态、震后黏弹松弛应力触发理论,无法解释囊谦地震的发生,说明该次地震可能是一次独立的事件.     

静态应力触发在应用中存在问题的讨论以玉树地震为例

大地震应力触发概念自提出至今被广泛应用。 库仑应力与后续地震活动对应效果受到多种因素影响。 其中, 不同深度断层滑动量不同导致不同深度静态库仑应力图像差异, 选取哪一个深度的应力图像来讨论后续地震趋势是一个重要问题。 本文提出一个计算方法, 首先计算不同深度静态库仑应力, 然后在同一个位置取不同深度库仑应力最高值, 绘制静态应力分布图像, 并以2010年玉树地震为例, 结合地震活动及静态库仑应力分布对这种计算方法的效果进行对比。 结果显示, 按照本文提出的计算方法, 利用不同学者给出的玉树地震破裂模型计算均显示, 玉树地震后2年内3级以上余震几乎全部发生在库仑应力增加区。     

2007年苏门答腊8．5级、8．3级地震强余震库仑破裂应力触发研究

2007年9月12日印尼苏门答腊发生了8.5级地震,9月13日其西北边又发生了8.3级地震,震后在附近还发生了一系列6级以上强震。该文依次计算了苏门答腊8.5级地震后各次地震前其所在主破裂面的库仑破裂应力变化。结果表明,2007年苏门答腊8.5级地震的后续强震都发生在库仑破裂应力显著增加区,其应力变化值均大于0.01 MPa,即后续强震可能都是被触发的。     

THE STATIC COULOMB STRESS CHANGE OF THE 2014 LUDIAN EARTHQUAKE AND ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AFTERSHOCKS AND SURROUNDING FAULTS

On Aug. 3rd, 2014, a M_S6.5 earthquake struck Ludian County, Yunnan Province. It is a typical left-lateral strike-slip event. With the purpose of understanding the influence of the Ludian earthquake, this paper firstly calculates the co-seismic Coulomb failure stress changes of the mainshock with the employment of the finite dislocation source model inversed by other researchers and studies the triggering effect to the aftershocks within a month. We find that 82.43% of the aftershocks are located in the Coulomb stress increasing area(ΔCFS>0.01MPa), therefore, most of the aftershocks are triggered by the mainshock. Then, regarding the surrounding active faults as the receive faults, the Coulomb stress changes of the mainshock are calculated to investigate the impact on the faults nearby. The result shows that only the northeast end of the west branch and northeast part of the east branch of Zhaotong-Ludian faults have been brought to failure. However, the other faults such as Daliangshan Fault, Lianfeng Fault, Zemuhe Fault, Xiaojiang Fault and Mabian-Yanjin Fault are unloaded after the Luidian event, so the possibility of future earthquake is decreased around these faults. Besides, when the optimal failure plane is chosen as the receive fault of the Coulomb stress changes, the Ludian earthquake always has good triggering effect to the aftershocks no matter which source models and effective friction coefficients are chosen.     

2014年于田MS7.3地震对后续余震和远场小震活动的动态应力触发

本文采用离散波数法,计算了2014年于田M_S7.3地震的断层破裂在近场和远场产生的库仑破裂应力变化,并结合地震活动特征,讨论了M_S7.3地震对后续余震活动和远场区域小震活动的动态应力触发作用.结果表明, ① M_S7.3地震产生的库仑破裂应力变化对其西南侧主体余震区的地震活动起到了抑制作用,这可能是本次M_S7.3地震序列余震活动水平不高的主要原因;距主震约30 km的北东方向余震区后续地震活动受到了主震产生的动态和静态应力变化的共同触发作用,动态应力变化峰值为2.78 MPa,静态应力变化为0.80 MPa,这与该区余震较为活跃相一致;距主震约45 km的北部余震区受到动态应力触发作用,应力变化峰值为0.72 MPa. ② M_S7.3地震产生的动态库仑应力变化空间分布呈非对称性,其中北东方向、北部余震分布与动态应力变化正值区存在相关性,从应力变化的角度解释了M_S7.3地震的后续余震空间活动特征. ③ M_S7.3地震在沙雅、伽师地区的远场接收点产生的动态应力变化峰值分别为0.09 MPa、0.1 MPa,对两个区域的小震活动具有动态触发作用.     

2008年新疆于田MS7.3地震对后续 地震的完全库仑应力触发作用

在离散波数法基础上计算2008年3月21日新疆于田M_S7.3地震造成的近场区域完全库仑应力变化, 分析该变化对余震发生所产生的影响, 得到了此次地震在2008年10月5日乌恰M_S6.8地震震中处所产生的动态库仑破裂应力变化. 计算结果表明, 该地震近场区域库仑应力变化图像演化大概持续了60 s, 库仑应力变化对余震的触发率达到90%以上, 其中动态库仑应力变化图像更好地解释了余震的分布. 余震震中处的完全库仑应力变化计算结果表明, 其动态库仑应力变化远远大于静态库仑应力变化. 于田M_S7.3地震在乌恰M_S6.8地震震中处造成的最大动态库仑应力变化为0.12 MPa, 说明后者可能受到了于田M_S7.3地震的动态应力触发作用, 但不显著;而静态库仑应力则对其影响很小.      

云南武定M6.5地震动态库仑破裂应力变化的数值模拟及其与余震活动的关系

在离散波数法（DWN）基础上,计算了武定M6.5地震断层破裂在周围介质中产生的位移时程（位移理论地震图）和动态位移场;进行弹性动力学转换后,求得应变时程和动态应变场;最后得到了武定M6.5地震所产生的动态库仑破裂应力变化量和动态库仑破裂应力变化场,进而研究其与后续余震的关系. 结果表明,动态应力最大峰值和静态应力的正区均呈非对称性分布,两者的分布特征与余震的分布特征基本一致. 在动态应力峰值为正的确定区应力值超过了0.1 MPa触发阈值, 在静态应力值为正的确定区应力值超过了0.01 MPa触发阈值. 这说明动态应力和静态应力均有助于余震的发生.      

新疆精河M_W6.3地震产生的静态应力变化研究

利用精河M_W6.3地震有限断层破裂模型,计算了精河地震产生的位移场、应力场、周围主要断层上的静态库仑应力变化以及主震对余震的触发作用。结果表明:(1)精河地震产生的地表隆升最大值约为6.6cm,沉降最大值约为1.8cm;水平位移方向呈现震中南北侧向震中汇聚、震中东西侧向外"流出"的特点。(2)精河地震产生的水平面应力场展布南北侧物质主要受到指向震中的拉张力作用,东西两侧物质主要受到因震中过剩物质东西向排出而导致的东西向挤压力作用。(3)震中西侧距震中约20km的库松木契克山前断裂中段和震中东北部距震中约50km的四棵树-古尔图南断裂西段的库仑应力加载均大于0.01MPa,即2处为地震危险区。(4)在震源深度为8~12km的余震事件中,约有85.5%处于库仑应力加载区,即受到主震的的触发作用;在深度为4~8km的余震事件中,约有87%受到主震的应力触发作用。     

印尼MS8.7地震对中国大陆3次后续中强地震的动应力触发研究

印尼8.7级地震发生后,在不到2个月时间内,在中国大陆相继发生了3次后续中强地震(2004年12月26日云南双柏MS5.1地震、2005年1月26日云南思茅MS5.1地震、2005年2月15日新疆乌什MS6.2地震),印尼地震和这3次后续地震是否存在触发关系?计算了印尼地震在3次后续地震破裂面上的动库仑应力变化和静库仑应力变化。静应力变化量小,低于一般认为的触发阈值(0.01 MPa);动应力变化峰值为10-1MPa,可能是这3次后续地震的触发因素。