河西走廊及邻区大震重复周期估算与未来地震趋势

河西走廊是我国中原通往西北地区的重要交通运输要道。受印度板块与欧亚板块于中生代末—新生代早期的碰撞及持续至今的向北推挤作用的远程效应的影响, 河西走廊及邻区是现今地壳活动地区, 其中地震活动为其主要表现形式。已有地震资料分析显示, 公元1555年以来划分为2个平静期和2个活跃期, 现在处于1920年以来的第2个活跃期内; 而最近100年的第2个活跃期内又可以划分为5个相对平静阶段和5个相对活跃阶段, 目前处于2002年以来的第5个活跃阶段内。从大震重复周期分析, 区内各断裂带发生7.0~7.5级大地震的时间间隔为2000~3000年左右。结合各断裂带最近一次地震的时间, 推测未来100年发生7级以上大震可能性很大的区段是三个墩—松山地区、玉门地区、磁窑口—苦水沟地区和嘉峪关地区; 未来100年发生7级以上大震可能性较大的区段是石包城—昌马大坝区段和高台地区。与地震活动相关的研究工作应该在确认活动断裂的基础上加强大震重复周期的研究与分析。      

东亚大陆今后50年大震趋势动力学预测

用地震动力学研究已发生地震的时空分布及迁移规律与动力的关系,并将这种关系顺时间轴向未来进行外延,是探讨今后一个历史时期内地震活动趋势的重要方法。东亚大陆大震频度随时间分布的间歇性和升降规律、大震空间分布的纬向性和活动带走向、以及大震在各活动期中的迁移方向,都与地球自转角速度变化状态有关。因之,根据地球自转角速度随时间变化观测曲线进行拟合外延,外推得出今后的各种地球自转状态,可求得今后50年东亚大陆大震的活动趋势(大震活动高低潮时期划分和各期活动水平升降变化规律、频度沿纬度的分布各时段活动带的走向和危险地段、以及各危险时段中大震的时空迁移方向)。     

中国大陆M≥8大震地表破裂参数与极震区等震线参数关系讨论

中国大陆自有文字记载以来曾发生多次M≥8大震。本文依据前人的研究资料,再次整理8级大震数量及各个大震地表破裂参数与等震线参数新的研究成果。研究表明,中国大陆共发生19次M≥8大震,其中华北构造区6次,新疆构造区3次,青藏构造区10次。与前人资料相对比,增加了849年内蒙包头8级地震,且对1303年山西洪洞地震等8次地震的地表破裂长度与破裂位移有了新的研究成果。对19次8级大震的地表破裂参数与极震区等震线参数之间的关系进行讨论,研究地震地表破裂与震源信息的关系。对比表明,地震断层活动方式不同的断裂之间,或是同属同一活动方式、但展布在不同地域,其地震地表破裂参数均有较大差异,相对应的极震区等震线参数均有较大差异。     

日本大震与中国及邻区中强地震的遥相关

将日本从北至南划分为5个区, 分析1900—2011年3月共110 a期间发生的67个M_s＝6.9~9.0大震事件, 与其后4 a在中国及邻区发生的M_s≥6.0(极个别为M_s=5.5~5.8)共569个中强地震的对应比较.得出结论: (1)日本大震和中国及邻区中强震二者有很好的遥相关关系; (2)分析了日本各区与中国及邻区地震相对应的特点; (3)中国地区地震的滞后时间多为0.5~2.0 a, 最长4 a; (4)用"遥相关法"预测2011—2013年期间, 中国及邻区的中强地震危险区.年度预测与实际发生地震检验结果显示: 预测的34个次地震危险区中, "报对"28个次, 约占总预测个次的82%, "虚报"6个次, 约占18%, 显示"遥相关法"对年度地震预测有一定效果; (5)提出"蜘蛛网"逆反应模型解释中国及邻区对日本大震的响应现象.      

建筑场地地震液化危害评价及地基处理

本文分析了地基失稳,计算震陷值及差异震陷等地基失效形式和液化土层的隔震作用,研究了液化指数、地基失效、液化土层隔震与多层房屋震害的关系,根据液化土的双重作用原理划分了液化危害等级,并提出了建筑场地地震液化危害评价方法和按小震不坏,中震可修,大震不倒的抗液化处理原则。     

土层非线性地震反应一维时域分析

等效线性化方法在工程中经常被用于土层非线性地震反应一维数值分析,但考虑大震作用将较大峰值加速度时程作为输入时,该方法会引起过大的“共振”效应,造成对地表地震反应的误估。为了更合理的估计非线性地震反应,提出了一种考虑拟合阻尼比、刚度比试验曲线的时域分析方法,并用于响嘡台阵场地土层地震一维非线性反应分析,通过数值模拟结果与实际记录的比较,验证了该方法的可行性。最后,通过数值模拟证明该方法对大震情况下对地表地震反应的估计比等效线性化方法更为合理。     

由三性法和静中动判据预测大震

7级和 7级以上大震是人们最为关心的地震活动 ,本文主要介绍我们提出预测大震的三性法和静中动判据以及预报实例。(1)三性法 :所谓三性法 ,就是用周期性、倍周期性和黄金分割性组成的时间序列去拟合所研究地区过去大地震发生的时间序列 ,如拟合的较好就按这三性的时间序列向未来外推 ,以预报未来大震可能发生的时间。上述黄金分割性是指在一个周期区间内 0 .382处和 0 .6 18处的两个时间点 ,该点也可对应地震。某地区过去大震发生的时间序列呈现三性分布的原因 ,可能是其周期之比为 2 / 3或 3/ 5的两个外因合成后触发大震形成的。对于地震预…     

我国未来地震形势分析

我国未来地震形势分析张治洮（地质矿产部西安地质矿产研究所，西安，７１００５４）１０年左右的地震形势分析，作为地震预报的重要环节，对年度预报和短临预报起着宏观指导作用．１９８５年新疆乌恰７．５级地震后，一些专家以这次大震作为本世纪第五活跃期的启动标志．...     

台湾海峡西岸经过1604年大震考验的古迹和部分地震地质景观介绍

福建省地处台湾海峡西岸 ,1 60 4年泉州海外的 8级地震对它造成很大的破坏 ,也给我们留下了一批经过 8级大震考验的珍贵古建筑物 ,受到海内外专家的重视。作者经过实地考察 ,认真查阅历史资料 ,着重介绍了经过 1 60 4年大震考验的泉州古建筑物 ,并结合今天福建省防震减灾工作的实际情况 ,结合地质地貌 ,福建土楼等 ,较系统的展示了海峡西岸的地震地质景观。     

台湾地区地震活动的关联维与多分形特征研究

本文从板块构造、活断层分布、地壳运动这三个方面来分析台湾地区的大地构造环境 ,然后在此基础上根据台湾地震活动特征和板块构造运动的差异将台湾地区划分为东、西两个区 ,然后再依据新构造和现代构造运动、构造应力场、地震构造进一步把东部区分为琉球弧沟、台东纵谷、吕宋弧沟三个地震带 ;把西部区分为新竹断陷、北港隆起、台西南盆地三个地震带。通过对各个地震区、带以及带内各段关联维数的计算 ,结合构造环境和地震活动性分析 ,验证了地震在空间分布上的分形特征 ,并发现这种分形特征与强震发生的构造环境密切相关。此外 ,通过对大震…     

Seismic moment release data in earthquake catalogue: Application of Hurst statistics in delineating temporal clustering and seismic vulnerability

Sequential cumulative moment release data of macroearthquakes (Mw≥4.3) of seventeen seismic zones (A to Q) belonging to NE-Himalaya, Burmese-Andaman arc and West- Sunda arc are analysed by Hurst analysis, a non-parametric statistical procedure to identify clustering of low and high values in a time series. The moment release in a zone occurs in alternate positive, negative and positive sloping segments forming a wave like pattern with intervening small horizontal segment. The negative sloping segments indicate decelerated moment release pattern or temporal slackening of elastic strain release with high b–value (>0.95). The horizontal segment indicates temporal clustering of moderate magnitude events/seismic moments with moderate b-values (0.8–0.95). The positive segment is characterised by accelerated moment release within a short span of time indicating temporal clustering of larger magnitude earthquakes/seismic moments and exhibit lowest b–value (<0.7). All zones attest moderate to high Hurst K values, range 0.7-0.86. The pattern in Hurst plots, specially a reversal of trend after prolong negative slope is used for earthquake prognostication in the seismic zones. Our analysis shows that most of the zones register a notable reversal of Hurst clustering trend after a prolonged negative slope which is accompanied by a major earthquake near its end. However, South Burma region (Zone-I) and Tripura fold belt and Bangladesh Plain (Zone-K) do not show any moderate or large shock around the end of the negative sloping trend in Hurst plot. Hence, these two zones can be considered more prone to produce moderate to larger earthquakes in future.     

Discrimination of explosions and earthquakes: An example based on spectra and source parameters of the 11<Superscript>th</Superscript> May 1998 Pokhran explosion and the 9<Superscript>th</Superscript> April 2009 earthquake

We compare the P-, S- and Lg- spectra of the 11^th May, 1998 Pokhran underground nuclear explosion (NE) with those of an earthquake (EQ) of comparable magnitude that occurred in its vicinity (~100 km west) on 9^th April, 2009, utilizing the waveforms recorded by a Global Seismograph Network station at Nilore (NIL), Pakistan. The contiguous occurrence of these events and the similarity of the travel paths provided a good opportunity to discriminate the nature of the sources. Our results suggest that the Pn/Lg and Pn/Sn amplitude ratios of the explosion and earthquake waveforms exhibit distinct differences in the higher frequency window. Further, since the P-phases have high signal to noise ratio compared to their S counterparts, we utilize their spectra to derive the source parameters of the NE and EQ sources. Our results show that the seismic moment, corner frequency and source dimension of the explosion are ~1.58X10¹⁷ Nm, 1.18 Hz and ~0.793 km respectively. The moment magnitude (M_W) and surface wave magnitude (M_S) for the nuclear explosion are estimated to be ~5.4 and ~3.57 respectively. The values of M_W (5.3) and M_S (4.3) obtained by us for the earthquake are consistent with the estimates in the Harvard catalog and earlier published results. The estimate of M_W for the nuclear explosion was hitherto not available. Lastly, we estimate the yield of the NE to be ~50 kt from the surface wave magnitude and discuss the various limitations related to its estimation.     

Porewater pressure increases in soil and rock from underground chemical and nuclear explosions

A review and analysis of chemical and nuclear explosive-induced porewater pressure increases and induced rise in groundwater table elevations (groundwater mounding) is presented. Our analysis indicates that residual pore pressure increases and groundwater mounding can be induced by underground chemical and nuclear explosions to scaled distances of 879 m/(kt)^1/3. This relationship is linear over seven orders of magnitude of explosive energy ranging from a 0.01 kg chemical explosion to a 100 kt nuclear explosion and is valid for a wide variety of saturated geological profiles. Underground chemical explosions, and probably underground nuclear explosions have the potential to induce liquefaction of water-saturated soils to scaled distances of about 260 m/(kt)^1/3.     

The socioeconomic impacts of nuclear generating stations: An analysis of the Rancho Seco and peach bottom facilities

This paper presents the results of a comparative analysis of the socioeconomic impacts of the construction and operation of two nuclear generating stations. Although the construction of nuclear power plants is typically a multiyear process utilizing large numbers of workers and requiring large expenditures for equipment and materials, the socioeconomic changes in the areas in which the plants are located were small and temporary. The extent and size of the changes were found to be related to the size of the work force residing in the local area, the magnitude of local utility and contractor purchases, the amount of tax payments resulting from the plant, and the level of involvement of area groups over plant-related issues.     

瑞典爱斯泼硬岩实验场地应力研究

爱斯泼 (A..sp o..)硬岩实验场 (HRL)是瑞典拟建的永久储放核废料的场地。实测地应力结果表明, 应力的大小和方位变化较为复杂。通过初步分析认为, 场地附近地应力的变化与断裂构造的发育有关。应用离散元方法, 分别选择平面模型和剖面模型模拟了应力场。模拟结果表明, 地应力的量值和方位在断裂附近均发生明显变化, 且与实测结果较吻合。主应力在断裂附近发生不同程度的偏转, 偏转的幅度与断裂走向和区域应力方向之间的夹角有关。应力的量值在断裂附近也有明显变化。在剖面模型中, 较缓倾角断裂模型的模拟结果最接近实测结果。文中还探讨了断裂带法向刚度和切向刚度的计算方法。     

Seismic wave propagation analysis in vertical arrays at Kashiwazaki–Kariwa nuclear power plant site by using modified normalized input–output minimization (mod‐NIOM) method

A new approach on numerical modeling of wave propagation is introduced and is used to analyze the effect of earthquake magnitudes (ground motion amplitudes) on wave propagation. In this method, the sum of the maximum amplitudes of the first output model at time 0 s and rest of the output models at different times are normalized to unity. Considering this as a constraint, the sum of the weighted‐squared Fourier amplitudes is minimized by using the Lagrange multiplier method. The proposed method can reveal the relationship of actual time histories by showing simple clear peaks. This method is used to analyze the time histories of various earthquake events at different vertical array sites of the Kashiwazaki–Kariwa nuclear power plant of Tokyo electric power company (TEPCO). The wave arrival times obtained from this method and down‐hole measurements are compared. The results show increase in the arrival times at surface layer when the magnitude of earthquake is large. The results reveal that the amplitudes of small magnitude earthquakes at depths are small and are largely amplified at surface, whereas in case of large magnitude earthquakes, the amplitudes are large at depths and are deamplified at surface reflecting the effects of the strain‐dependent soil properties that result in non‐linear site response to strong shaking. The results also show that the reflected peak amplitudes are higher for small magnitude earthquakes than for large magnitude earthquakes. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

土−桩基−隔震支座−核岛地震反应试验研究

通过开展大型地震模拟振动台试验,对比研究了土−桩基−隔震支座−核岛结构和土−桩基−核岛结构的地震反应。试验采用橡胶铅锌支座作为基础隔震,放置于桩基承台和上部核岛结构之间,地基土采用某工程场地的均匀粉质黏土,试验输入的地震动时程,是由美国核电设计的 RG1.60 反应谱拟合而成。试验结果表明：隔震支座不仅可以改变上部结构频率、减小加速度和反应谱幅值大小,还可以减少下部桩的弯矩,起到降低上部结构的反应的隔震作用。但隔震支座的使用会改变桩基础的弯矩分布,核电工程采用隔震支座时应对桩基受力和变形进行特殊抗震设计,以保证土−桩−上部结构整体系统的抗震稳定性。     

我国核电站选址的区域稳定性研究

核能是重要的能源之一。利用核能发电在世界能源构成中占有愈来愈重要的地位。 修建核电站,要求严格的安全和环境条件,必须绝对保证核电站在各种可能遭遇的自然和人为事件情况下,均不致发生造成放射性物质外泄的事故。因此,除了要求核电站建筑物和各种装置本身安全可靠并拥有周密而充分的安全措施外,特别要求在选择厂址时,必须充分查明和预测各种可能遭受的自然灾害。在各种能危及核电站安全的自然灾害中,与工程地质直接有关的问题有许多方面,本文仅就核电站选址中,厂址地区的区域稳定问题作一简要探讨。