基于环境包络线法的深水浮式平台极值响应长期预报

海上结构设计包括对荷载和响应的可靠性评估。对结构进行全面长期响应分析繁琐且费时,故将基于逆一阶可靠性方法的环境包络线进行海上结构概率可靠性分析,对结构的长期响应进行近似估计。在二维标准正态空间中画出与重现期相对应的圆,将圆离散为点后通过Rosenblatt变换转化为环境参数空间中的点来形成闭合的环境包络线。描述海洋环境条件的模型对绘制环境包络线极为重要,基于我国南海荔湾海域40年波浪模拟数据,建立了描述南海波浪的Weibull-Gev条件分布模型,进而绘制南海有效波高—谱峰周期包络线,并与张力腿平台(TLP)系泊张力的长期响应预报结果对比,给出南海海域在波浪作用下应用环境包络线法预报TLP系泊张力的分位数,为未来南海TLP设计中系泊张力预报提供快速估算方法。     

老龄自升式平台极限承载能力与体系可靠性分析

通过海洋平台桩-土非线性弹簧模型的研究,结合桩基荷载-位移数据计算程序的编制,为工程实际应用提供简便可靠的方法。对某自升式钻井平台在完好状态和受损状态下的极限承载能力作了对比研究,通过逐级增加载荷的方法,基于精确计算模型对平台结构进行非线性分析,具体依据载荷类型、载荷作用力方向等,得到12种计算工况,研究老龄平台在受损状态下对强度储备的影响,并评估其安全状况。考虑外界荷载的随机性和不确定性,基于极限承载能力分析,采用等效荷载法,运用JC法进行平台体系可靠性计算,分析完好平台与老龄平台的结构体系可靠性,并作对比研究。     

深水半潜式钻井平台简化疲劳分析

研究适用于中国南海的深水半潜式钻井平台结构简化疲劳分析方法。依据中国南海环境条件,计算平台结构应力响应,得到平台结构应力范围长期Weibull分布形状参数。通过结构波浪应力的长期预报,计算得到平台寿命期一遇波浪载荷,依据寿命期一遇波浪载荷计算平台结构寿命期一遇最大热点应力范围。采用简化疲劳分析方法计算平台结构疲劳寿命,用谱疲劳分析方法验证简化疲劳分析结果的准确性,证实了简化疲劳分析方法相对保守,可应用于平台的设计。     

腐蚀损伤下海洋平台极限强度计算方法及试验研究

基于非线性有限元方法,计及材料非线性和几何非线性,考虑腐蚀损伤因素提出了一种固定式海洋平台极限强度计算方法,并以墨西哥湾某海域某典型固定式海洋平台为算例,对其进行全寿命期内极限强度计算,获得了该海洋平台极限强度随服役年限的变化规律。同时依据刚度相似和几何相似,设计完好试验模型和腐蚀试验模型,开展极限强度试验研究,将试验结果与计算结果对比分析,通过试验手段验证了腐蚀损伤下海洋平台极限强度计算方法的有效性。     

抗冰导管架平台冰激疲劳寿命估计

基于安全寿命设计理论,论述了抗冰平台冰激疲劳寿命估计的方法,给出了谱分析和时间域分析方法的内容和流程,其中疲劳冰荷载和冰疲劳环境模型是冰激疲劳估计的两个关键问题。基于渤海冰情和冰荷载连续多年现场观测数据,初步建立了渤海JZ20-2海域海冰疲劳环境模型和锥体结构冰力谱,并利用谱分析方法,对新建的JZ20-2NW平台进行了详细冰激疲劳估计。此方法对抗冰平台的安全评估与动力分析具有一定的借鉴意义。     

桩基导管架平台在台风及海浪作用下的随机响应分析

针对南海海域特点,本文对深水导管架平台在台风和海浪作用下的随机响应作了分析研究。给出了台风风压的长期分布,分析了各种风速条件下结构的响应组成,讨论了平台在台风影响下的生存问题。采用了等效线性化和矩阵凝聚技术,根据随机振动理论,可以求得平台结构的位移和内力响应,为深水导管架的设计及动力分析,提供了一个简单可靠的计算模型、计算方法和计算程序。     

南海1998-2002年初级生产力的遥感估算及其时空演化机制

基于SeaWiFS资料得到1998—2002年海洋叶绿素浓度值以及海表温度(SST)数据和其它海洋数据,通过VGPM模型最终反演得到南海1998—2002年逐月初级生产力分布图以及季节分布图,发现在这5年内南海海域初级生产力年平均值变化不大,仅略有差异,1998年的年平均初级生产力要比其它几年的年平均初级生产力小一些;而南海海域初级生产力的季节变化则很明显,冬季要比其它几个季节高得多,而夏季最低。不同季节控制南海海域初级生产力的主导因素各不相同,主要是叶绿素浓度的分布、营养盐的分布、温度条件等,不同海区又略有不同。     

冲击荷载作用下新型延展式张力腿平台时域分析

延展式张力腿平台是一种适用于深水油气开采的海洋平台结构。提出一种新型平台由四个立柱和一个环形浮箱连接而成,环形浮箱是由四个箱型梁焊接而成。根据给出的南海海域的海况条件和相应的规范计算结构的环境载荷,运用SESAM软件Deep C模块,考虑风、浪、流等环境荷载的作用和张力腿系统的非线性影响,进行了时域耦合分析,得到了平台的运动位移时程、张力腿系统张力时程和张力极值等。模拟波浪破碎作为冲击载荷,得到张力腿平台在冲击荷载作用下的运动位移时程、张力腿系统的张力时程。研究结果表明:该新型平台具有良好的运动响应,张力筋腱应力满足安全要求;在冲击载荷作用下新型平台的运动响应也满足要求。     

锥体导管架海洋平台冰激振动的DEM-FEM耦合分析及高性能算法

在寒区海域,冰荷载是影响海洋平台安全运行的主要环境荷载之一,由其引起的冰激振动给平台结构及其上部设备带来了严重危害。为分析不同冰况下平台的振动响应,本文建立了导管架海洋平台冰激振动的离散元（DEM）-有限元（FEM）耦合模型。采用具有黏接-破碎性能的等粒径球体离散单元对海冰的破碎特性进行模拟,通过由梁单元构建的海洋平台有限元模型获得结构的振动响应。在离散元与有限元的接触区域中实现了两个模型间计算参数的传递。为提高该耦合模型的计算效率和规模,发展了基于动力子结构方法的DEM-FEM耦合模型。为验证该耦合模型的有效性和可行性,将不同冰况下得到的冰荷载与ISO19906和JTS 144-1-2010标准进行了对比。结果表明,计算得到的冰荷载与标准相近,且冰厚与冰荷载呈二次非线性关系。同时,从冰速和冰厚两方面对比了渤海四桩腿JZ20-2 MUQ锥体导管架平台冰激振动加速度的数值结果和现场实测数据,发现冰速与振动加速度呈线性关系,冰厚与振动加速度呈二次非线性关系,并且振动加速度与冰速和冰厚平方的乘积呈线性关系。     

固定式海洋平台极限强度试验研究

根据墨西哥湾某海域一典型固定式海洋平台为原型,按照几何相似准则和刚度相似准则设计并制作海洋平台试验模型,开展极限强度模型试验研究,观察并记录其破坏过程。并采用非线性有限元方法(ANSYS)对试验模型进行极限强度数值计算,将计算结果与试验结果对比,结果表明计算结果与试验结果吻合较好,验证非线性有限元方法的有效性。     

Mooring system reliability in tropical cyclone and North Sea winter storm environments

The characteristics of waves, winds and currents in a tropical cyclone environment differ significantly from those in a winter storm environment, like the North Sea. This can have a significant effect on the reliability of a mooring system that is designed to satisfy 100 yr conditions with specified Factors of Safety in accordance with ISO19901-7 or API RP 2SK. This paper presents reliability analysis of the mooring system of a permanently connected Floating LNG vessel, placed at two locations: (a) a tropical cyclone environment of the North West Shelf of Australia and (b) a winter storm environment of the North Sea. It is demonstrated that as a result of differences in the long term distribution of environmental parameters (waves, winds) between a North Sea environment and a tropical cyclone environment, the long term distribution of the mooring line response differs significantly in these two locations.This paper shows that a mooring system which is designed in accordance with ISO (or API), in these two environments, will achieve very different reliability levels because of the significant differences in environmental characteristics. In order to achieve the same reliability for the mooring system at these two geographical locations, Factors of Safety for use with 100 yr environmental conditions (Ultimate Limit State) were derived to achieve the same target probability of failure of 10⁻⁴/annum. It was found that for the North Sea environment, a factor of 1.5 is required for both the mooring chain and the pile, while for the tropical cyclone environment the required Factor of Safety has to be increased to 2.1. These differences are very significant and design standards need to be revised to reflect these findings.     

中国物理海洋学研究70年:发展历程、学术成就概览

本文概略评述新中国成立70年来物理海洋学各分支研究领域的发展历程和若干学术成就。中国物理海洋学研究起步于海浪、潮汐、近海环流与水团，以及以风暴潮为主的海洋气象灾害的研究。随着国力的增强，研究领域不断拓展，涌现了大量具有广泛影响力的研究成果，其中包括:提出了被国际广泛采用的“普遍风浪谱”和“涌浪谱”，发展了第三代海浪数值模式；提出了“准调和分析方法”和“潮汐潮流永久预报”等潮汐潮流的分析和预报方法；发现并命名了“棉兰老潜流”，揭示了东海黑潮的多核结构及其多尺度变异机理等，系统描述了太平洋西边界流系；提出了印度尼西亚贯穿流的南海分支(或称南海贯穿流)；不断完善了中国近海陆架环流系统，在南海环流、黑潮及其分支、台湾暖流、闽浙沿岸流、黄海冷水团环流、黄海暖流、渤海环流，以及陆架波方面均取得了深刻的认识；从大气桥和海洋桥两个方面对太平洋–印度洋–大西洋洋际相互作用进行了系统的总结；发展了浅海水团的研究方法，基本摸清了中国近海水团的分布和消长特征与机制，在大洋和极地水团分布及运动研究方面也做出了重要贡献；阐明了南海中尺度涡的宏观特征和生成机制，揭示了中尺度涡的三维结构，定量评估了其全球物质与能量输运能力；基本摸清了中国近海海洋锋的空间分布和季节变化特征，提出了地形、正压不稳定和斜压不稳定等锋面动力学机制；构建了“南海内波潜标观测网”，实现了对内波生成–演变–消亡全过程机理的系统认识；发展了湍流的剪切不稳定理论，提出了海流“边缘不稳定”的概念，开发了海洋湍流模式，提出了湍流混合参数化的新方法等；在海洋内部混合机制和能量来源方面取得了新的认识，并阐述了混合对海洋深层环流、营养物质输运等过程的影响；研发了全球浪–潮–流耦合模式，推出一系列海洋与气候模式；发展了可同化主要海洋观测数据的海洋数据同化系统和用于ENSO预报的耦合同化系统；建立了达到国际水准的非地转(水槽/水池)和地转(旋转平台)物理模 型实验平台；发展了ENSO预报的误差分析方法，建立了海洋和气候系统年代际变化的理论体系，揭示了中深层海洋对全球气候变化的响应；初步建成了中国近海海洋观测网；持续开展南北极调查研究；建立了台风、风暴潮、巨浪和海啸的业务化预报系统，为中国气象减灾提供保障；突破了国外的海洋技术封锁，研发了万米水深的深水水听器和海洋光学特性系列测量仪器；建立了溢油、危险化学品漂移扩散等预测模型，为伴随海洋资源开发所带来的风险事故的应急处理和预警预报提供科学支撑。文中引用的大量学术成果文献(每位第一作者优选不超过3篇)显示，经过70年的发展，中国物理海洋学研究培养了一支实力雄厚的科研队伍，这是最宝贵的成果。这支队伍必将成为中国物理海洋学研究攀登新高峰的主力军。     

The synchronous coupling of a third-generation wave model and a two-dimensional storm surge model

The interaction of waves and currents is studied by the dynamical coupling of a third generation wave model and a two-dimensional storm surge model. The coupling process of the two models is implemented synchronously. To estimate the effects of waves on the generation of storm surges, the theory of Janssen is used. The effects of the wave radiation stress on surge levels and the effects of storm-induced currents on waves are also investigated.The coupled wave and storm surge models have been tested by hindcasting two storm events in the northern South China Sea. The use of the Simth and Banke stress relation underestimates the surges by 10%. The inclusion of the radiation stress improves the accuracy of the computed results slightly by 2%. The introduction of a wave-dependent surface drag gives a significant improvement. The storm-induced currents clearly affect the wave characteristics at the peak stage. However, as far as the prediction of wave height is concerned, it is better not to consider the wave radiation stress in the storm surge model unless this is accompanied by a wave-dependent surface drag.     

极端海洋环境对海洋平台疲劳寿命的影响

基于渤海和南海的海洋平台设计环境条件,分析了近年来我国近海极端海洋环境条件的发生规律及其对海洋平台疲劳设计条件的冲击。采用Miner’s线性累积疲劳损伤准则和疲劳可靠性理论,研究了极端海况引起的疲劳损伤对海洋平台疲劳寿命的影响,提出了考虑极端海洋环境条件的海洋平台疲劳设计方法。研究表明,由于近年来全球气候变换带来的极端气象条件频发,导致海洋工程结构经历传统意义上的多年一遇海洋环境条件的概率大大增加,使得现行的海洋平台疲劳设计条件偏离了实际的海洋环境条件。数值算例表明,极端海况引起的疲劳损伤在总的疲劳损伤的比例大大增加,甚至成为疲劳损伤的主要部分。因此,这些极端海况引起的疲劳损伤对结构疲劳寿命的影响不容忽略,考虑极端海洋环境条件的海洋平台疲劳设计符合近年来的灾害性海况频发的现状。     

Simulation of Typhoon-Driven Waves in the Yangtze Estuary with Multiple-Nested Wave Models

Typhoon-generated waves are simulated with two numerical wave models, the SWAN model for the coastal and Yangtze Estuary domain, nested within the WAVEWATCHIII （WW3） for the basin-scale East China Sea domain. Typhoon No. 8114 is chosen because it was very strong, and generated high waves in the Estuary. WW3 was implemented for the East China Sea coarse-resolution computational domain, to simulate the waves over a large spatial scale and provide boundary conditions for SWAN model simulations, implemented on a fine-resolution nested domain for the Yangtze Estuary area. The Takahashi wind model is applied to the simulation of the East China Sea scale （3-hourly） and Yangtze Estuary scale （1-hourly） winds. Simulations of significant wave heights in the East China Sea show that the highest waves are on the right side of the storm track, and maxima tend to occur at the eastern deep-water open boundary of the Yangtze Estuary. In the Yangtze Estuary, incoming swell is dominant over locally generated waves before the typhoon approaches the Estuary. As the typhoon approaches the Estuary, wind waves and swell coexist, and the wave direction is mainly influenced by the swell direction and the complex topography.     

Estimation of mean and extreme waves in the East China Seas

Accurately estimating the mean and extreme wave statistics and better understanding their directional and seasonal variations are of great importance in the planning and designing of ocean and coastal engineering works. Due to the lack of long-term wave measurement data, the analysis of extreme waves is often based on the numerical wave hind-casting results. In this study, the wave climate in the East China Seas (including the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea) for the past 35 years (1979–2013) is hind-casted using a third generation wave model – WAMC4 (Cycle 4 version of WAM model). Two sets of reanalysis wind data from NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction, USA) and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts) are used to drive the wave model to generate the long-term wave climate. The hind-casted waves are then analysed to study the mean and extreme wave statistics in the study area. The results show that the mean wave heights decrease from south to north and from sea to land in general. The extreme wave heights with return periods of 50 and 100 years in the summer and autumn seasons are significantly higher than those in the other two seasons, mainly due to the effect of typhoon events. The mean wave heights in the winter season have the highest values, mainly due to the effect of winter monsoon winds. The comparison of extreme wave statistics from both wind fields with the field measurements at several nearshore wave observation stations shows that the extreme waves generated by the ECMWF winds are better than those generated by the NCEP winds. The comparison also shows the extreme waves in deep waters are better reproduced than those in shallow waters, which is partly attributed to the limitations of the wave model used. The results presented in this paper provide useful insight into the wave climate in the area of the East China Seas, as well as the effect of wind data resolution on the simulation of long-term waves.     

南海风暴潮对风场和外围海水敏感性研究

为探索来自西北太平洋台风风暴潮与南海局地生成台风风暴潮不同,本研究在假设两种台风气象条件相同情况下,研究随台风而来外围海水所形成增水对南海沿岸的影响。以0814"黑格比"强台风风暴潮为基础,使用ROMS(regional ocean modeling system)模式进行数值模拟并通过设计对比试验方法进行研究,研究发现在台风登陆时引起的增水最大,最大增水出现在台风路径右侧,其中在沿岸区域,外围海水形成增水约占总增水10%,且大约3 h后出现增水回震现象。同时,设计对比试验,研究来自西北太平洋台风风暴潮对台风路径、台风强度、台风移动速度和流入角等气象条件敏感性,并获得与前人一致的结果。     

A numerical study of the summertime flow around the Luzon Strait

Luzon Strait, a wide channel between Taiwan and Luzon islands, connects the northern South China Sea and the Philippine Sea. The Kuroshio, South China Sea gyre, monsoon and local topography influence circulation in the Luzon Strait area. In addition, the fact that the South China Sea is a fairly isolated basin accounts for why its water property differs markedly from the Kuroshio water east of Luzon. This work applies a numerical model to examine the influence of the difference in the vertical stratification between the South China Sea and Kuroshio waters on the loop current of Kuroshio in the Luzon Strait during summer. According to model results, the loop current’s strength in the strait reduces as the strongly stratified South China Sea water is driven northward by the southwest winds. Numerical results also indicate that Kuroshio is separated by a nearly meridional ridge east of Luzon Strait. The two velocity core structures of Kuroshio can also be observed in eastern Taiwan. Moreover, the water flowing from the South China Sea contributes primarily to the near shore core of Kuroshio.     

太阳黑子对南海季风爆发及热带风暴活动的影响

利用 1 949— 1 998年的资料 ,以统计分析的方法 ,对太阳黑子及南海季风爆发、热带风暴活动的相互关系进行了初步探讨。结果表明 ,太阳黑子极值年与南海季风爆发的时间有一定的对应关系 ,与热带风暴活动有一定的相关性。峰值年南海季风爆发时间偏早 ,热带风暴生成个数及登陆个数均偏少 ,且活动期偏短。