《巴黎协定》实施细则适应议题焦点解析及后续中国应对措施

适应是《联合国气候变化框架公约》及其《巴黎协定》下的重要谈判内容。2018年12月举行的第24次缔约方大会（COP24）就适应议题后续实施方案达成了共识,为全球气候治理带来新的机遇和挑战。中国在未来全球气候治理中,如何借助新成果推动国内适应工作稳步发展,积极发挥中国作用,是新形势下亟需考虑的重要问题。基于此,本文梳理了适应议题的焦点问题、各集团和缔约方的立场观点,展望了2019—2025年适应相关议题主要工作安排,并对此提出了中国未来适应领域完成相关工作需要考虑的应对措施建议,包括：(1)深入分析国际信息报告体系与国内信息的联系,梳理国内适应工作亮点,为构建高质量报告奠定基础;(2)构建跨部门跨地区协作机制,加强信息搜集与完善,有效提高数据和信息统计功能;(3)强化气候变化适应技术、规范、标准等科学研究的作用,为制定政策规定时纳入相应技术要求、提高政策规定等需求提供科学性和可操作性的服务。     

巴黎协定——全球气候治理的新起点

巴黎气候变化大会完成了历时4年的德班平台谈判进程,达成了以《巴黎协定》（简称《协定》）为核心的一系列决定。《协定》确立了一种全缔约方参与,以“自主贡献+审评”为中心,全面涉及减缓、适应及其支持的全球应对气候变化新模式。这一模式在继承《公约》原则的基础上,明确了发达国家和发展中国家各自的责任,通过国家自主贡献的方式充分动员所有缔约方采取应对气候变化行动,促进可持续发展。《协定》还鼓励除缔约方外的其他主体积极参与应对气候变化进程,鼓励市场和非市场机制的加入,动员资金流向绿色低碳领域。在制度安排上,《协定》体现了激励、透明、非对抗、非惩罚性的特点。《协定》的达成标志着全球气候治理进入了新的发展阶段,传递出全球推动实现绿色低碳、气候适应型和可持续发展的强有力信号。然而由于《协定》全面平衡了各方的利益,在未来的遵约细节和实施落实方面将会有更多的难题,如果处理不当,将可能会损害发展中国家的利益,尤其是发展中大国。     

未来联合国气候变化谈判的核心内容及前景展望——“巴厘路线图”解读

详细介绍了《联合国气候变化框架公约》缔约方会议第13次会议通过的"巴厘路线图"的具体内容。"巴厘路线图"规划了未来两年将要谈判的重要议题,包括发达国家在2012年后减排温室气体义务;发展中国家未来温室气体减排行动;适应气候变化;发达国家未来向发展中国家提供技术转让、资金支持和能力建设等。这些议题谈判的成败,将对未来保护气候的国际努力、对未来全球的气候环境产生决定性影响,从而对谈判前景做了分析     

未来联合国气候变化谈判的核心内容及前景展望——“巴厘路线图”解读

 详细介绍了《联合国气候变化框架公约》缔约方会议第13次会议通过的"巴厘路线图"的具体内容。"巴厘路线图"规划了未来两年将要谈判的重要议题,包括发达国家在2012年后减排温室气体义务;发展中国家未来温室气体减排行动;适应气候变化;发达国家未来向发展中国家提供技术转让、资金支持和能力建设等。这些议题谈判的成败,将对未来保护气候的国际努力、对未来全球的气候环境产生决定性影响,从而对谈判前景做了分析     

基于国家自主决定贡献的发展中国家应对气候变化资金需求研究

2015年年底召开的巴黎气候大会开启了全球联合应对气候变化的崭新时代,构建了“各国提交国家自主决定贡献-全球行动盘点-提高行动力度-各国再次提交国家自主决定贡献-最终实现应对气候变化长期目标”的全球气候治理新模式。本研究以目前《联合国气候变化框架公约》秘书处收到的160份国家自主决定贡献（涵盖188个缔约方）为对象,对各缔约方的减缓目标进行了分类汇总,并重点对发展中国家资金需求、减排成本和优先投资领域进行了系统梳理。研究结果表明：160份国家自主决定贡献中,有122份明确纳入了资金内容;64份对执行贡献预案提出了具体的资金需求数额;31份对2030年国内温室气体减排量和减排资金需求进行了预估,并基于此测算出发展中国家2030年平均减排成本为22.3美元/t CO2;28个缔约方对国内减缓和适应领域资金需求进行了再分类,减缓和适应总体资金需求比值为1.4。如以目前发达国家缔约方减缓承诺为基准,2030年发展中国家应对气候变化资金需求总量将达到4740亿美元。     

海洋的变化及其对生态系统和人类社会的影响、风险及应对

IPCC《气候变化中的海洋和冰冻圈特别报告》评估了全球和区域海洋的气候变化及其对生态系统和人类社会的影响、风险及应对措施。结果表明,近几十年来,海洋的物理和化学性质发生了明显变化,如升温、酸化、脱氧和营养盐减少等气候致灾因子（事件）的危害（险）性不断加剧（高信度）。这种变化正在影响从上层到底层的海洋生态系统和人类社会的可持续发展,如海洋初级生产力的下降、物种地理分布的变迁、渔业资源潜在渔获量的下降以及食品供应的减少（高信度）。在气候变化与非气候人为干扰因素的综合影响下,随着温室气体排放的增加（从RCP2.6到RCP8.5情景）,到21世纪末,几乎所有类型的海洋和海岸带生态系统将处于高或很高的风险水平（高信度);其中,暖水珊瑚礁生态系统尤其严重,如果全球升温1.5℃和2℃,将分别消失70%~90%和99%以上（很高信度）。然而,当前多种减缓气候变化的海洋应对措施的作用较小,有的可能带来生态危险,而许多降低气候风险的海洋适应措施的作用也很有限,特别是在RCP8.5情景下的作用更小;未来海洋生态系统的风险水平在RCP2.6情景下均低于RCP8.5情景（很高信度)。因此,这凸显了减缓气候变化尤其是减缓和适应气候变化综合治理的重要性。     

Resilience through interlinkage: the green climate fund and climate finance governance

The Green Climate Fund (GCF) is a significant and potentially innovative addition to UNFCCC frameworks for mobilizing increased finance for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Yet the GCF faces challenges of operationalization not only as a relatively new international fund but also as a result of US President Trump’s announcement that the United States would withdraw from the Paris Agreement. Consequently the GCF faces a major reduction in actual funding contributions and also governance challenges at the levels of its Board and the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP), to which it is ultimately accountable. This article analyzes these challenges with reference to the GCF’s internal regulations and its agreements with third parties to demonstrate how exploiting design features of the GCF could strengthen its resilience in the face of such challenges. These features include linkages with UNFCCC constituted bodies, particularly the Technology Mechanism, and enhanced engagement with non-Party stakeholders, especially through its Private Sector Facility. The article posits that deepening GCF interlinkages would increase both the coherence of climate finance governance and the GCF’s ability to contribute to ambitious climate action in uncertain times.

Key policy insights

• The Trump Administration’s purported withdrawal from the Paris Agreement creates challenges for the GCF operating model in three key domains: capitalization, governance and guidance.

• Two emerging innovations could prove crucial in GCF resilience to fulfil its role in Paris Agreement implementation: (1) interlinkages with other UNFCCC bodies, especially the Technology Mechanism; and (2) engagement with non-Party stakeholders, especially private sector actors such as large US investors and financiers.

• There is also an emerging soft role for the GCF as interlocutor between policy-makers and non-Party actors to help bridge the communication divide that often plagues cross-sectoral interactions.

• This role could develop through: (a) the GCF tripartite interface between the Private Sector Facility, Accredited Entities and National Designated Authorities; and (b) strengthened collaborations between the UNFCCC Technical and Financial Mechanisms.

     

气候变化适应行动进展及对我国行动策略的若干思考

巴厘岛会议,即《联合国气候变化框架公约》（简称《公约》）第13次缔约方会议,明确了将气候变化适应和减缓并重的立场,并对适应工作进行了一系列的安排和部署。通过介绍《公约》下适应认识的发展过程,阐述了巴厘岛会议针对适应行动的一些进展,讨论了我国在适应方面可开展的行动和关注的领域。分析认为,目前适应已成为和减缓并重的关注议题,适应行动的呼声越来越强烈,但行动的落实还需要经过漫长的过程,适应基金募集和分配在发达国家和发展中国家之间、发展中国家内部也将有一个艰难而激烈的谈判交锋。     

气候变化适应行动进展及对我国行动策略的若干思考

 巴厘岛会议,即《联合国气候变化框架公约》（简称《公约》）第13次缔约方会议,明确了将气候变化适应和减缓并重的立场,并对适应工作进行了一系列的安排和部署。通过介绍《公约》下适应认识的发展过程,阐述了巴厘岛会议针对适应行动的一些进展,讨论了我国在适应方面可开展的行动和关注的领域。分析认为,目前适应已成为和减缓并重的关注议题,适应行动的呼声越来越强烈,但行动的落实还需要经过漫长的过程,适应基金募集和分配在发达国家和发展中国家之间、发展中国家内部也将有一个艰难而激烈的谈判交锋。     

Ocean acidification and climate change: synergies and challenges of addressing both under the UNFCCC

Ocean acidification and climate change are linked by their common driver: CO₂. Climate change is the consequence of a range of GHG emissions, but ocean acidification on a global scale is caused solely by increased concentrations of atmospheric CO₂. Reducing CO₂ emissions is therefore the most effective way to mitigate ocean acidification. Acting to prevent further ocean acidification by reducing CO₂ emissions will also provide simultaneous benefits by alleviating future climate change. Although it is possible that reducing CO₂ emissions to a level low enough to address ocean acidification will simultaneously address climate change, the reverse is unfortunately not necessarily true. Despite the ocean's integral role in the climate system and the potentially wide-ranging impacts on marine life and humans, the problem of ocean acidification is largely absent from most policy discussions pertaining to CO₂ emissions. The linkages between ocean acidification, climate change and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are identified and possible scenarios for developing common solutions to reduce and adapt to ocean acidification and climate change are offered. Areas where the UNFCCC is currently lacking capacity to effectively tackle rising ocean acidity are also highlighted.     

马德里气候大会盘点及全球气候治理展望

《联合国气候变化框架公约》（简称《公约》）第25次缔约方会议取得了一定进展,但未能就各方最为关注的《巴黎协定》第六条市场机制实施细则达成一致。会议成果平淡主要有4个原因:第一,过度强调提高各方减排目标力度而未能聚焦《巴黎协定》第六条相关谈判;第二,主席国和部分缔约方急切将各方尚未形成政治共识的提高承诺力度问题引入谈判进程,破坏了谈判氛围;第三,各个议题推进不平衡;第四,发达国家企图逃避责任,促使发展中国家更加团结并形成对立。展望2020年的全球气候多边进程形势,《巴黎协定》第六条相关谈判将继续作为重点,提高力度也将成为讨论主题,但片面强调1.5℃目标可能引发重谈《巴黎协定》风险,同时发达国家背弃《公约》、转嫁责任意图明显。全球气候治理应聚焦落实承诺的力度,并平行推进《公约》及其《巴黎协定》的实施。     

China’s rising influence on climate governance: Forging a path for the global South

China’s influence on climate governance has been steadily increasing since the adoption of the Paris Agreement on climate change in 2015. Much of this influence, this article argues, has come from China forging a path for climate adaptation and mitigation for the global South. This is having far-reaching consequences, the article further argues, for the politics of global climate governance. China’s discursive and diplomatic power in climate politics is growing as China builds alliances across the global South. China is leveraging this enhanced soft power to elevate the importance of adaptation in multilateral climate negotiations, advance a technocentric approach to climate mitigation, export its development model, and promote industrial-scale afforestation as a nature-based climate solution. China’s strategy is enhancing climate financing, technology transfers, renewable power, and adaptation infrastructure across the global South. To some extent, this is helping with a transition to a low-carbon world economy. Yet China’s leadership is also reinforcing incremental, technocratic, and growth-oriented solutions in global climate governance. These findings advance the understanding of China’s role in global environmental politics, especially its growing influence on climate governance in the global South.     

COP26: Progress,Challenges, and Outlook

The 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was held in Glasgow a year later than scheduled, with expected outcomes achieved under a post-pandemic background. Based on the Issue-Actor-Mechanism Framework, this paper systematically evaluates the outcomes achieved at COP26 and analyzes the tendency of post-COP26 climate negotiations. Overall, with the concerted efforts of all parties, COP26 has achieved a balanced and inclusive package of outcomes and concluded six years of negotiations on the Paris Rulebook. It is fair to say that COP26 is another milestone in climate governance following the implementation of the Paris Agreement. Meanwhile, the Glasgow Climate Pact has cemented the consensus on a global commitment to accelerating climate action over the next decade and reached a breakthrough consensus on reducing coal, controlling methane, and halting deforestation. In the post-COP26 era, we still need to take concrete actions to implement the outcomes of the Paris Agreement and the Glasgow Climate Pact, innovate ways to speed up CO₂ emissions reduction, and continue to strive for breakthroughs in important issues such as finance, technology, adaptation, and collaboration. In addition to avoiding the escalation of international conflicts, we need to collectively and properly handle the relationship between energy security, carbon reduction, and development and facilitate the efforts of countries to achieve their Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including climate-related goals. China will continue to maintain the existing multilateral mechanisms and processes for climate governance, unremittingly take concrete actions to address climate change, promote a domestic comprehensive green transition and global cooperation on carbon neutrality, and contribute constructively to global climate governance.     

IPCC SROCC的主要结论和启示

2019年9月,IPCC正式发布《气候变化中的海洋和冰冻圈特别报告》（SROCC）,这是IPCC首次以高山地区与极区冰冻圈和海洋为主题的评估报告。报告全面评估气候变化背景下海洋和冰冻圈变化及其广泛影响与风险,其核心结论包括：气候系统变暖背景下高山地区和极区的冰冻圈普遍退缩,未来冰冻圈将继续消融,高山地区和极区将面临更高的灾害风险;20世纪70年代以来全球海洋持续增暖,未来海洋将继续变暖、加速酸化,影响海洋生物多样性并危及海洋生态系统服务功能和人类社会;近几十年全球平均海平面加速上升,未来数百年海平面仍将持续上升,极端海面事件频发将加剧沿海地区社会-生态系统的灾害风险。报告强调,采取及时、积极、协调和持久的适应与减缓行动,是有效应对海洋和冰冻圈变化,实现气候恢复力发展路径和可持续发展目标的关键所在。本研究认为,需要高度重视海洋和冰冻圈在气候系统变化中的长期和不可逆影响,强化应对气候变化紧迫性认识;高度重视我国冰冻圈和沿海地区面临的气候风险,强化适应能力建设;推动我国牵头的国际大科学计划,强化跨学科、跨领域协同创新,持续提升我国在相关领域的国际影响力和科技支撑能力。     

Learning from CDM SD tool experience for Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement (PA) emphasizes the intrinsic relationship between climate change and sustainable development (SD) and welcomes the 2030 agenda for the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Yet, there is a lack of assessment approaches to ensure that climate and development goals are achieved in an integrated fashion and trade-offs avoided. Article 6.4 of the PA introduces a new Sustainable Mitigation Mechanism (SMM) with the dual aim to contribute to the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and foster SD. The Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has a similar objective and in 2014, the CDM SD tool was launched by the Executive Board of the CDM to highlight the SD benefits of CDM activities. This article analyses the usefulness of the CDM SD tool for stakeholders and compares the SD tool’s SD reporting requirements against other flexible mechanisms and multilateral standards to provide recommendations for improvement. A key conclusion is that the Paris Agreement’s SMM has a stronger political mandate than the CDM to measure that SD impacts are ‘real, measurable and long-term’. Recommendations for an improved CDM SD tool are a relevant starting point to develop rules, modalities, and procedures for SD assessment in Article 6.4 as well as for other cooperative mitigation approaches.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Research findings are relevant for developing the rulebook of modalities and procedures for Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement, which introduces a new mechanism for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and sustainable development. Lessons learnt from the CDM SD tool and recommendations for enhanced SD assessment are discussed in context of Article 6 cooperative approaches, and make a timely contribution to inform negotiations on the rulebook agreed by the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement.     

从哥本哈根气候变化大会看气候变化谈判的焦点问题及IPCC第五次评估报告的可能作用

从哥本哈根气候变化大会的谈判焦点可以预期,后续国际气候变化谈判的重点将是谈判的基础案文、发达国家在《京都议定书》第二承诺期进一步的量化减排承诺以及长期目标的表述等问题。IPCC第五次评估报告将对以往报告已阐述的科学问题和基本结论加以巩固并提供更有说服力的证据和论据,更加侧重区域问题,增加适应和减缓经济学成本、气候变化与可持续发展等内容的分析。关于气候变化检测和归因、气候变化影响和关键脆弱性、大气温室气体浓度稳定水平、适应的选择及其成本效益、减缓措施的选择和社会经济成本、责任分担机制及公平性等问题的评估结论,将对谈判进程的推进发挥重要作用。     

气候变化影响与适应问题的谈判进展

 从《气候变化框架公约》（以下简称《公约》）第一次缔约方会议到目前为止，几乎历次会议都涉及气候变化影响与适应的谈判内容，但谈判进展甚微。通过综述《公约》谈判进程中与适应气候变化有关的主要决定，分析了适应气候变化影响与适应问题谈判的制约因素，最后提出了我国在气候变化影响与适应问题谈判中应持的立场。     

基于自然的气候变化解决方案

基于自然的解决方案(NbS)是近10年提出的人类社会应对一系列环境和社会挑战的成本有效的方式,但直到近期才在国际社会引起重视。针对气候变化,NbS指通过对生态系统的保护、恢复和可持续管理减缓气候变化,同时利用生态系统及其服务功能帮助人类和野生生物适应气候变化带来的影响和挑战。这些生态系统包括森林、农田、草地、湿地（海岸带）生态系统,人工的或天然的。NbS能够为实现《巴黎协定》目标贡献30%左右的减排潜力,同时带来巨大的环境和社会经济的协同效益。但是,在过去的气候变化政策和行动中,包括国家自主贡献（INDC）,NbS尚未得到充分的重视,流入NbS相关的气候资金明显不足。为充分发挥NbS的潜力,建议开展中国NbS减排潜力及其协同效应研究,识别成本有效的中国NbS优先领域,梳理国际国内NbS成功案例,制定推动NbS主流化相关激励政策,推动多领域NbS协同治理。     

国家自主决定贡献的特征研究

国家自主贡献（NDC）机制于2015年巴黎气候变化大会确立,要求各缔约方参考各国国情以“自下而上”的方式提出应对气候变化目标。汇总梳理了作为国家自主贡献前身的国家自主决定贡献（INDC）164份,总结提出了各国文件的共性框架,重点对减缓和适应目标、实施条件和公平性等4类特征进行了统计分析。研究发现,各缔约方国家自主决定贡献文本差异显著,虽然具有共性框架,但是在具体目标阐述方式、覆盖经济行业及温室气体范围、实施条件和公平性阐述等方面选择迥异,此外,气候变化谈判立场对缔约方国家自主决定贡献承诺内容和形式的选择具有较大影响。     

中国气候变化南南合作对《巴黎协定》后适应谈判的影响

适应气候变化是发展中国家的重要谈判议题。《联合国气候变化框架公约》2015年达成《巴黎协定》后如何落实适应议题实施细则成为关注焦点。发达国家以温室气体排放总量大为理由,施压中国等发展中大国出资全球适应气候变化行动;发展中国家内部对适应气候变化受害方和出资方的划分存在较大分歧,造成适应议题下发展中国家集团难以形成合力,《巴黎协定》实施细则谈判进展缓慢。中国气候变化南南合作作为中国与其他发展中国家之间重要的气候变化领域合作形式,能否通过寻找发展中国家契合点,依据合理机制,对适应谈判发挥一定作用,须及早进行利弊分析及顶层设计。文章通过分析美欧日对外援助的机制、梳理非洲小岛国等主要发展中国家集团在应对气候变化不利影响方面的需求、总结以往中国适应项目对外援助情况的基础上,提出了今后中国气候变化南南合作与适应谈判中需要注意的问题,包括区分适应援助和减缓援助、避免中国气候变化南南合作的属性被误读等问题,为争取广阔外交利益、合理构建南南合作机制提供政策建议。