Evolution of polar coronal holes and sunspots during cycles 21 and 22

A very good correlation between the evolution of polar coronal hole size and sunspot number half a solar cycle later was found by Bravo and Otaola for solar cycle 21. In this paper we use a more complete set of data to reanalyse the relationship for solar cycle 21 and investigate the same relationship for solar cycle 22. We find that the complete set of data for cycle 21 yields a slightly different time shift for the best correlation between sunspots and holes and that the time shift for cycle 22 is different from that of cycle 21. However, because of limited availability of data of cycle 22, we consider it necessary to wait until the end of this cycle in order to decide if the difference is statistically significant or not. We also found that the time between successive peaks of smoothed polar hole area and smoothed sunspot number is the same in both cycles. This may provide a useful tool for the forecasting of future sunspot maxima. The constant of proportionality between polar coronal hole area and sunspot number can be seen to be different in both cycles. We discuss this difference and interpret it in terms of a different magnitude of the polar field strength in the two cycles.     

Area of polar coronal holes and sunspot activity: Years 1939–1993

The correlation between the size of polar coronal holes and sunspot numbers has been investigated for the last five solar cycles. The area of polar coronal holes over the period from 1939 to 1993 was derived from ground-based observations of the green coronal line at 530.3 nm (Fe xiv). Correlation analysis revealed that there is no general shift in the maxima of the curves of these two solar indices. The analysis showed the same shift in months in cycles 21 and 22 when the best correlation between the indices is reached; the time shift found in cycle 20 is slightly different from that in cycle 18; in cycle 19, there is found a shift with a value between the values in cycles 18, 20 and 21, 22. The time between succesive peaks of smoothed polar hole size and smoothed sunspot number is different in each cycle.     

INTER-CYCLE VARIATIONS OF SOLAR IRRADIANCE: SUNSPOT AREAS AS A POINTER

Most of the present models and reconstructions of solar irradiance use the concept of Photometric Sunspot Index (PSI) to account for the influence of sunspots on solar brightness. Since PSI is based on measured sunspot areas a firm database of such areas is essential. We show, however, that a significant disagreement exists between the data provided by the Royal Greenwich Observatory (from 1874 to 1976) and newer measurements provided by the observatories of Rome, Yunnan, Catania, and the US Air Force. The overlap of the time intervals over which sunspot areas were measured at Greenwich and Rome allows us to quantify the difference between the Greenwich and other data sets. We find that the various data sets differ, at least in a statistical sense, mainly by a correction factor of between 1.15 and 1.25.The revised time series of sunspot areas correlates well with the Zürich sunspot relative numbers over the last 120 years, with the relationship between sunspot areas and sunspot numbers changing only slightly from one cycle to the next. In particular, no indication exists for any extraordinary magnetic behavior of the Sun during the last 2 decades, as might falsely be concluded if the various sunspot area data sets are uncritically combined. There are, however, some indications that cycles 15 and 16 deviate from the rest. We expect that our results should have a significant influence on the reconstruction of the historical solar irradiance.     

Different Periodicities in the Sunspot Area and the Occurrence of Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections in Solar Cycle 23 – 24

In order to investigate the relationship between magnetic-flux emergence, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), we study the periodicity in the time series of these quantities. It has been known that solar flares, sunspot area, and photospheric magnetic flux have a dominant periodicity of about 155 days, which is confined to a part of the phase of the solar cycle. These periodicities occur at different phases of the solar cycle during successive phases. We present a time-series analysis of sunspot area, flare and CME occurrence during Cycle 23 and the rising phase of Cycle 24 from 1996 to 2011. We find that the flux emergence, represented by sunspot area, has multiple periodicities. Flares and CMEs, however, do not occur with the same period as the flux emergence. Using the results of this study, we discuss the possible activity sources producing emerging flux.     

PREDICTIONS OF THE FEATURES FOR SUNSPOT CYCLE 23

Smoothed monthly mean Ap indices are decomposed into two components (Ap) _c and (Ap) _n. The former is directly correlated with the current sunspot numbers, while the latter is shown to achieve its maximum correlation with the sunspot numbers after some time lag. This latter property is used to develop a method for predicting the sunspot maximum based on the observed value of (Ap) _n maximum which occurs during the preceding cycle. The value of R _M for cycle 23 predicted by this method is 149.3 ± 19.9. A method to estimate the rise time (from solar minimum to maximum) has been developed (based on analyses of Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann, 1994) and yields a value of 4.2 years. Using an estimate that the minimum between cycles 22 and 23 occurred in May 1996, it is predicted that the sunspot maximum for cycle 23 will occur in July 2000.     

Group Sunspot Numbers: Sunspot Cycle Characteristics

We examine the `Group' sunspot numbers constructed by Hoyt and Schatten to determine their utility in characterizing the solar activity cycle. We compare smoothed monthly Group sunspot numbers to Zürich (International) sunspot numbers, 10.7-cm radio flux, and total sunspot area. We find that the Zürich numbers follow the 10.7-cm radio flux and total sunspot area measurements only slightly better than the Group numbers. We examine several significant characteristics of the sunspot cycle using both Group numbers and Zürich numbers. We find that the `Waldmeier Effect' – the anti-correlation between cycle amplitude and the elapsed time between minimum and maximum of a cycle – is much more apparent in the Zürich numbers. The `Amplitude–Period Effect' – the anti-correlation between cycle amplitude and the length of the previous cycle from minimum to minimum – is also much more apparent in the Zürich numbers. The `Amplitude–Minimum Effect' – the correlation between cycle amplitude and the activity level at the previous (onset) minimum is equally apparent in both the Zürich numbers and the Group numbers. The `Even–Odd Effect' – in which odd-numbered cycles are larger than their even-numbered precursors – is somewhat stronger in the Group numbers but with a tighter relationship in the Zürich numbers. The `Secular Trend' – the increase in cycle amplitudes since the Maunder Minimum – is much stronger in Group numbers. After removing this trend we find little evidence for multi-cycle periodicities like the 80-year Gleissberg cycle or the two- and three-cycle periodicities. We also find little evidence for a correlation between the amplitude of a cycle and its period or for a bimodal distribution of cycle periods. We conclude that the Group numbers are most useful for extending the sunspot cycle data further back in time and thereby adding more cycles and improving the statistics. However, the Zürich numbers are slightly more useful for characterizing the on-going levels of solar activity.     

23周太阳活动的现状和展望

本文给出了太阳２３ 周开始时间的确定、从开始到现在近两年间太阳活动的状况以及２３周上升期间的一些特点。分析表明,１９９６ 年１０ 月是２３ 周的第一个月,它的月平滑值是８ ．８ ;２３ 周的太阳活动虽然可能是高活动周,例如,国际推荐值为２０００ 年３ 月的１６０ ,但它可能不会超过前两周。根据上升期太阳活动的一些特征,还给出了在２３ 周峰年联测和空间灾害性扰动事件预报和预报方法研究中应注意的几个问题     

The cyclical variation of energy flux and photospheric magnetic field strength from coronal holes

We measured the average soft X-ray emission from coronal holes observed on images obtained during AS & E rocket flights from 1974 to 1981. The variation of this emission over the solar cycle was then compared with photospheric magnetic flux measurements within coronal holes over the same period. We found that coronal hole soft X-ray emission could be detected and that this emission appeared to increase with the rise of the sunspot cycle from activity minimum to maximum. Our quantitative results confirmed previous suggestions that the coronal brightness contrast between holes and large-scale structure decreased during this period of the cycle. Gas pressures at the hole base were estimated for assumed temperatures and found to vary from about 0.03 dyne cm^–2 in 1974 to 0.35 dyne cm^–2 in 1981. The increase in coronal hole X-ray emission was accompanied by a similar trend in the surface magnetic flux of near-equatorial holes between 1975 and 1980 (Harvey et al., 1982).     

The analysis of the characteristics of variation and change patterns of sunspot cycles

The paper focus on the variation character of sunspot number and solar cycles based on the new version sunspot number (SSN) data. According to seven main variables describing solar cycles, including peak value, the length of cycle, the length of ascending phase, the ratio of the ascending time to the descending time, slope, half width, and area under the curve of solar cycle, clustering, principal component and factor analysis, are applied to analyze variation characteristic and patterns of the 24 solar cycles. We cluster these 24 cycles to find groups in these solar cycles, and search for the main factor determining strength, length and occurrence time of the peak, and the furthest cycle from the average. The cycles within a cluster will be similar or related to one another and different from or unrelated to the cycles in other clusters. These results could help us search for similar cycles conveniently, obtain the understanding of the characteristics of solar cycle variation and analysis of sunspot number change and evolution characteristics, and analyze the origin and the variation mechanism of solar cycle.     

Predicting the start and maximum amplitude of solar cycle 24 using similar phases and a cycle grouping

We find that the solar cycles 9, 11, and 20 are similar to cycle 23 in their respective descending phases. Using this similarity and the observed data of smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers (SMSNs) available for the descending phase of cycle 23, we make a date calibration for the average time sequence made of the three descending phases of the three cycles, and predict the start of March or April 2008 for cycle 24. For the three cycles, we also find a linear correlation of the length of the descending phase of a cycle with the difference between the maximum epoch of this cycle and that of its next cycle.Using this relationship along with the known relationship between the rise-time and the maximum amplitude of a slowly rising solar cycle, we predict the maximum SMSN of cycle 24 of 100.2±7.5 to appear during the period from May to October 2012.     

Automated detection of EUV Polar Coronal Holes during Solar Cycle 23

A new method for automated detection of polar coronal holes is presented. This method, called perimeter tracing, uses a series of 171, 195, and 304 Å full disk images from the Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) on SOHO over solar cycle 23 to measure the perimeter of polar coronal holes as they appear on the limbs. Perimeter tracing minimizes line-of-sight obscurations caused by the emitting plasma of the various wavelengths by taking measurements at the solar limb. Perimeter tracing also allows for the polar rotation period to emerge organically from the data as 33 days. We have called this the Harvey rotation rate and count Harvey rotations starting 4 January 1900. From the measured perimeter, we are then able to fit a curve to the data and derive an area within the line of best fit. We observe the area of the northern polar hole area in 1996, at the beginning of solar cycle 23, to be about 4.2% of the total solar surface area and about 3.6% in 2007. The area of the southern polar hole is observed to be about 4.0% in 1996 and about 3.4% in 2007. Thus, both the north and south polar hole areas are no more than 15% smaller now than they were at the beginning of cycle 23. This compares to the polar magnetic field measured to be about 40% less now than it was a cycle ago.     

Long-Term Variations in Solar Differential Rotation and Sunspot Activity

The solar equatorial rotation rate, determined from sunspot group data during the period 1879–2004, decreased over the last century, whereas the level of activity has increased considerably. The latitude gradient term of the solar rotation shows a significant modulation of about 79 year, which is consistent with what is expected for the existence of the Gleissberg cycle. Our analysis indicates that the level of activity will remain almost the same as the present cycle during the next few solar cycles (i.e., during the current double Hale cycle), while the length of the next double Hale cycle in sunspot activity is predicted to be longer than the current one. We find evidence for the existence of a weak linear relationship between the equatorial rotation rate and the length of sunspot cycle. Finally, we find that the length of the current cycle will be as short as that of cycle 22, indicating that the present Hale cycle may be a combination of two shorter cycles. Presently working for the Mt. Wilson Solar Archive Digitization Project at UCLA.     

Solar cycles during the Maunder minimum

We have obtained new consistent versions of the 400-yr time series of the Wolf sunspot number W, the sunspot group number G, and the total sunspot area S (or the total sunspot magnetic flux Φ). We show that the 11-yr cycle did not cease during the Maunder minimum of solar activity. The characteristics of the extrema of individual 11-yr cycles in 1600–2005 have been determined in terms of the total sunspot area index. We provide arguments for using alternating (“magnetic”) time series of indices in investigating the solar cyclicity.     

Solar cycle dependence of polar coronal holes

A study has been made of the polar coronal holes in relation to solar cycle activity. Important results obtained are: (i) the peak of the frequency distribution of coronal hole size shifts towards lower values as the solar cycle advances towards maximum, this being true for both the north and south polar holes, (ii) coronal hole size decreases with the increase of sunspot number.     

A new pattern for the north–south asymmetry of sunspots

We study the solar cycle evolution during the last 8 solar cycles using a vectorial sunspot area called the LA (longitudinal asymmetry) parameter. This is a useful measure of solar activity in which the stochastic, longitudinally evenly distributed sunspot activity is reduced and which therefore emphasizes the more systematic, longitudinally asymmetric sunspot activity. Interesting differences are found between the LA parameter and the more conventional sunspot activity indices like the (scalar) sunspot area and the sunspot number. E.g., cycle 19 is not the highest cycle according to LA. We have calculated the separate LA parameters for the northern and southern hemisphere and found a systematic dipolar-type oscillation in the dominating hemisphere during high solar activity times which is reproduced from cycle to cycle. We have analyzed this oscillation during cycles 16–22 by a superposed epoch method using the date of magnetic reversal in the southern hemisphere as the zero epoch time. According to our analysis, the oscillation starts by an excess of the northern LA value in the ascending phase of the solar cycle which lasts for about 2.3 years. Soon after the maximum northern dominance, the southern hemisphere starts dominating, reaching its minimum some 1.2–1.7 years later. The period of southern dominance lasts for about 1.6 years and ends, on an average, slightly before the end of magnetic reversal.     

Intermediate-term periodicities in solar activity

The presence of intermediate-term periodicities in solar activity, at approximately 323 and 540 days, has been claimed by different authors. In this paper, we have performed a search for them in the historical records of two main indices of solar activity, namely, the daily sunspot areas (cycles 12–21) and the daily Zürich sunspot number (cycles 6–21). Two different methods to compute power spectra have been used, one of them being especially appropriate to deal with gapped time series. The results obtained for the periodicity near 323 days indicate that it has only been present in cycle 21, while in previous cycles no significant evidence for it has been found. On the other hand, a significant periodicity at 350 days is found in sunspot areas and Zürich sunspot number during cycles 12–21 considered all together, also having been detected in some individual cycles. However, this last periodicity must be looked into with care due to the lack of confirmation for it coming from other features of solar activity. The periodicity around 540 days is found in cycles 12, 14, and 17 in sunspot areas, while during cycles 18 and 19 it is present, with a very high significance, in sunspot areas and Zürich sunspot number. It also appears at 528 days in sunspot areas during cycles 12–21. On the other hand, it is important to note the coincidence between the asymmetry, favouring the northern hemisphere, of sunspot areas and solar flares during cycle 19, and the fact that the periodicity at 540 days was only present, with high significance, in that hemisphere during that solar cycle.     

Coronal Activity During the 22-Year Solar Magnetic Cycle

The existence of a 22-year heliomagnetic cycle was inferred long ago not only from direct measurements of the solar magnetic field but also from a cyclic variability of a number of the solar activity phenomena. In particular, it was stated (a rule derived after Gnevyshev and Ohl (1948) findings and referenced as the G–O rule in the following) that if sunspot number Rz cycles are organized in pairs of even–odd numbered cycles, then the height of the peak in the curve of the yearly-averaged sunspot numbers Rz-y is always lower for a given even cycle in comparison with the corresponding height of the following odd cycle. Exceptions to this rule are only cycles 4 and 8 which, at the same time, are the nearest even cycles to the limits of the so-called Dalton minimum of solar activity (i.e., the 1795–1823 time interval). In the present paper, we are looking for traces of the mentioned G–O rule in green corona brightness (measured in terms of the Fexiv 530.3 nm emission line intensity), using data covering almost five solar cycles (1943–1994). It was found that the G–O rule seems to work within the green-line corona brightness, namely, when coronal intensity measured in an extended solar middle-latitude zone is considered separately from the rest of the solar surface. On the other hand, the same G–O rule is valid at the photospheric level, as the heliographic latitudinal dependence of sunspot numbers (1947–1984) shows.     

An Analysis of Polar Coronal Hole Evolution: Relations to Other Solar Phenomena and Heliospheric Consequences

We use observations of the green corona low-brightness regions to construct a time series of a polar coronal hole area from 1939 to 1996, covering 5 solar cycles. We then perform a power-spectral analysis of the monthly data time series. Several persistent significant periodicities appear in the spectra, which are related with those found in solar magnetic flux emergence, geomagnetic storm sudden commencements and cosmic-ray flux at Earth. Of particular importance are the peak at around 1.6–1.8 yr recently found in cosmic-ray intensity fluctuations, and the peak at around 1 yr, also identified in coronal hole magnetic flux variations. Additional interesting features are the peaks close to 5 yr, 3 yr and the possible peak at around 30 yr, that were also found in other solar and interplanetary phenomena. Our results stress the physical connection between the solar magnetic flux emergence and the interplanetary medium dynamics, in particular the importance of coronal hole evolution in the structuring of the heliosphere.     

Coronal Holes and Flare Index: A correlation study

The correlation between the presence of coronal holes and flare indices has been investigated for the period from 1976 to 1995. The analysis shows that in the cases of 227 Carrington rotations (CRs) backward time lags yield the highest correlation between the coronal holes and flare indices. The maximum correlations were found at time lags of 222 and 142 CRs for polar and equatorial coronal holes, respectively. The period of study covers the past two solar cycles (21 and 22). Correlation analysis of both solar cycles has also been studied individually. The correlation analysis reveals that there is in general a forward shift in the maximum correlation for polar coronal holes, but it cannot be recommended to use polar coronal hole numbers for forecasting the next solar cycle.     

Long term evolution of solar sector structure

The large-scale structure of the solar magnetic field during the past five sunspot cycles (representing by implication a much longer interval of time) has been investigated using the polarity (toward or away from the Sun) of the interplanetary magnetic field as inferred from polar geomagnetic observations. The polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field has previously been shown to be closely related to the polarity (into or out of the Sun) of the large-scale solar magnetic field. It appears that a solar structure with four sectors per rotation persisted through the past five sunspot cycles with a synodic rotation period near 27.0 days, and a small relative westward drift during the first half of each sunspot cycle and a relative eastward drift during the second half of each cycle. Superposed on this four-sector structure there is another structure with inward field polarity, a width in solar longitude of about 100° and a synodic rotation period of about 28 to 29 days. This 28.5 day structure is usually most prominent during a few years near sunspot maximum. Some preliminary comparisons of these observed solar structures with theoretical considerations are given.