Validation of methods to estimate design discharge flow rates for dam spillways with large regulating capacity

Abstract

The estimation and review of discharge flow rates in hydraulic works is a fundamental problem in water management. In the case of dams with large regulating capacity, in order to estimate return periods of discharge flow rates from the spillways, it becomes necessary to consider both peak flow and volume of the incoming floods. In this paper, the results of the validation for several methods of assessing design floods for spillways of dams with a large flood control capacity are presented; the validation is performed by comparing the maximum outflows (or the maximum levels reached in the reservoir) obtained from the routing of the design floods with those obtained from the routing of the historical annual maximum floods. The basin of Malpaso Dam, Mexico, is used as the case study.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Domínguez, M.R. and Arganis, J.M.L., 2012. Validation of methods to estimate design discharge flow rates for dam spillways with large regulating capacity. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (3), 460–478.     

Chemical composition of geographical types of the small river basin waters (Central Sikhote-Alin Mountains,Pacific Asia)

In the article, the results of field observations of the chemical composition of the small river basin waters obtained during warm periods in 2011–2012 are presented. Seven basic geographical types of water were investigated, namely, cyclonic rainfall, rainstorm, throughfall, subsurface soil flow, low water flow (specific discharges of waters do not exceed 2.5 L/s km²), low floods (peak specific discharges are from 2.5 to 16 L/s km²) and medium floods (peak specific discharges are from 16 to about 100 L/s km²). A result of the interaction between the rain water and landscape constituents is that all examined natural waters differ to the maximum extent in the anionic composition. A chemical type of stream waters is sufficiently stable; it is formed predominantly within the soil-ground cover and does not change with increase in flow rate.     

Energy Expenditure and Geomorphic Work of the Cataclysmic Missoula Flooding in the Columbia River GGorge,USA

Cataclysmic releases from the glacially dammed Lake Missoula, producing exceptionally large floods, have resulted in significant erosional processes occurring over relatively short time spans. Erosional landforms produced by the cataclysmic Missoula floods appear to follow a temporal sequence in many areas of eastern Washington State. This study has focused on the sequence observed between Celilo and the John Day River, where the erosional features can be physically quantified in terms of stream power and geomorphic work. The step-backwater calculations in conjunction with the geologic evidence of maximum flow stages, indicate a peak discharge for the largest Missoula flood of 10 × 10⁶m³s⁻¹. The analysis of local flow hydraulics and its spatial variation were obtained calculating the hydrodynamic variables within the different segments of a cross-section. The nature and patterns of erosional features left by the floods are controlled by the local hydraulic variations. Therefore, the association of local hydraulic parameters with erosional and depositional flood features was critical in understanding landform development and geomorphic processes. The critical stream power required to initiate erosion varied for the different landforms of the erosional sequence, ranging from 500 W m⁻² for the streamlined hills, up to 4500 W m⁻² to initiate processes producing inner channels. Erosion is possible only during catastrophic floods exceeding those thresholds of stream power below which no work is expended in erosion. In fact, despite the multiple outbursts which occurred during the late Pleistocene, only a few of them had the required magnitude to overcome the threshold conditions and accomplish significant geomorphic work. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Timescale-based flood typing to estimate temporal changes in flood frequencies

ABSTRACT

The flood peak is the dominating characteristic in nearly all flood-statistical analyses. Contrary to the general assumptions of design flood estimation, the peak is not closely related to other flood characteristics. Differentiation of floods into types provides a more realistic view. Often different parts of the probability distribution function of annual flood peaks are dominated by different flood types, which raises the question how shifts in flood regimes would modify the statistics of annual maxima. To answer this, a distinction into five flood types is proposed; then, temporal changes in flood-type frequencies are investigated. We show that the frequency of floods caused by heavy rain has increased significantly in recent years. A statistical model is developed that simulates peaks for each event type by type-specific peak–volume relationships. In a simulation study, we show how changes in frequency of flood event type lead to changes in the quantiles of annual maximum series.     

OUTBURST FLOODS FROM GLACIER-DAMMED LAKES: THE EFFECT OF MODE OF LAKE DRAINAGE ON FLOOD MAGNITUDE

Published accounts of outburst floods from glacier-dammed lakes show that a significant number of such floods are associated not with drainage through a tunnel incised into the basal ice—the process generally assumed—but rather with ice-marginal drainage, mechanical failure of part of the ice dam, or both. Non-tunnel floods are strongly correlated with formation of an ice dam by a glacier advancing from a tributary drainage into either a main river valley or a pre-existing body of water (lake or fiord). For a given lake volume, non-tunnel floods tend to have significantly higher peak discharges than tunnel-drainage floods. Statistical analysis of data for floods associated with subglacial tunnels yields the following empirical relation between lake volume V and peak discharge Q_p : Q_p = 46V^0.66 (r² = 0.70), when Q_p is expressed in metres per second and V in millions of cubic metres. This updates the so-called Clague–Mathews relation. For non-tunnel floods, the analogous relation is Q_p = 1100V^0.44 (r² = 0.58). The latter relation is close to one found by Costa (1988) for failure of constructed earthen dams. This closeness is probably not coincidental but rather reflects similarities in modes of dam failure and lake drainage. We develop a simple physical model of the breach-widening process for non-tunnel floods, assuming that (1) the rate of breach widening is controlled by melting of the ice, (2) outflow from the lake is regulated by the hydraulic condition of critical flow where water enters the breach, and (3) the effect of lake temperature may be dealt with as done by Clarke (1982). Calculations based on the model simulate quite well outbursts from Lake George, Alaska. Dimensional analysis leads to two approximations of the form Q_p ∝ V^qf(h_i, θ₀), where q = 0.5 to 0.6, h_i is initial lake depth, θ₀ is lake temperature, and the form of f (h_i, θ₀) depends on the relative importance of viscous dissipation and the lake's thermal energy in determining the rate of breach opening. These expressions, along with the regression relations, should prove useful for assessing the probable magnitude of breach-type outburst floods.     

Hydrological model for urban catchments – analytical development using copulas and numerical solution

Abstract

A model based on analytical development and numerical solution is presented for estimating the cumulative distribution function (cdf) of the runoff volume and peak discharge rate of urban floods using the joint probability density function (pdf) of rainfall volume and duration together with information about the catchment's physical characteristics. The joint pdf of rainfall event volume and duration is derived using the theory of copulas. Four families of Archimedean copulas are tested in order to select the most appropriate to reproduce the dependence structure of those variables. Frequency distributions of runoff event volume and peak discharge rate are obtained following the derived probability distribution theory, using the functional relationship given by the rainfall–runoff process. The model is tested in two urban catchments located in the cities of Chillán and Santiago, Chile. The results are compared with the outcomes of continuous simulation in the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) and with those from another analytical model that assumes storm event duration and volume to be statistically independent exponentially distributed variables.

Citation Zegpi, M. & Fernández, B. (2010) Hydrological model for urban catchments – analytical development using copulas and numerical solution. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(7), 1123–1136.     

Temporal variability in hydrological response within a small catchment with badland areas,central Pyrenees

Abstract

The lower Araguás catchment, central Pyrenees, is characterized by extensive badlands (25% of the total catchment), whereas the upper catchment is covered by dense plantation forest. The catchment (45 ha) has been monitored since October 2005 with the aim of studying its hydrological response. The 44 floods recorded over this period were analysed to identify the factors that control the rainfall—runoff relationship. The first relevant feature of the catchment was its responsiveness. The catchment reacted to all rainfall events, but the irregular nature of the hydrological response was the most characteristic feature of the response. No single variable could explain the response of the Araguás catchment. It was found that stormflow coefficients mainly depend on the combination of rainfall volume and antecedent baseflow. A significant correlation was observed between maximum rainfall intensity and peak flow values. The shapes of the different hydrographs are very similar, regardless of the peak flow magnitude; they show a short time lag, relatively narrow peak flow, and steep recession limb. This indicates a large contribution by overland flow, resulting mainly from the generation of infiltration excess runoff in badland areas.     

Trend detection in river flow series: 2. Flood and low-flow index series / Détection de tendance dans des séries de débit fluvial: 2. Séries d'indices de crue et d'étiage

Abstract

Major floods in Europe and North America during the past decade have provoked the question of whether or not they are an effect of a changing climate. This study investigates changes in observational data, using up to 100-year-long daily mean river flow records at 21 stations worldwide. Trends in seven flood and low-flow index series are assessed using Mann-Kendall and linear regression methods. Emphasis was on the comparison of trends in these flow index series, particularly in peak-over-threshold (POT) series as opposed to annual maximum (AM) river flow series. There is a larger number of significant trends in the AM than in the POT flood magnitude series, probably relating to the way the series are constructed. Low flood peaks occurring at the beginning or end of a time series with trend may be too low to be selected for the POT analysis. However, one peak per year will always be selected for the AM series, making the slope steeper and/or the series longer, resulting in a more significant trend. There is no general pattern of increasing or decreasing numbers or magnitudes of floods, but there are significant increases in half of the low-flow series.     

CYCLES D'ÉVOLUTION DE LA COMPOSITION CHIMIQUE DES EAUX SOUTERRAINES / DANS CERTAINES SITUATIONS HYDROGÉOLOGIQUES TYPIQUES DU BASSIN DE LA MÉDITERRANÉE

Abstract

Results of a comprehensive synoptic-hydrological analysis of major flood events in the Negev (1964–2007) are presented. A low threshold for major flood data was set to be the 10-year recurrence interval of peak discharge and/or flood volume magnitude. Altogether, 75 major flood events, or 133 hydrometrically monitored floods, were extracted. These events were categorized according to synoptic oriented classes by verification of the paired databases of: (a) floods in the study area, and (b) synoptic systems over the Eastern Mediterranean. For the study area, two of the most frequent flood-generating synoptic systems are the autumn Red Sea Trough (RST), 31%, and winter cyclones, 49%. The entire RST series consists of 24 major flood events (55 floods). The synoptic definition was corroborated by analysing the specific form of flood hydrographs and the ratio of flood volume to peak discharge. Regional analysis shows increased contribution of RST events southwards from 30% to 90% with a respective decrease in the number of cyclone events. By comparing two 22-year sub-periods (1964–1985 and 1986–2007), a positive trend in the frequency and magnitudes of RST flood events is discerned. There is also an increased tendency for the occurrence of cyclone floods.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Shentsis, I., Laronne J.B., and Alpert, P., 2012. Red Sea Trough flood events in the Negev, Israel (1964–2007). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 42–51.     

Estimation of discharges of water flows and debris floods in a small watershed

Floods in small mountainous watersheds cover a wide spectrum of flow. They can range from clear water flows and hyperconcentrated flows to debris floods and debris flows, and calculation of the peak discharge is crucial for predicting and mitigating such hazards. To determine the optimal approach for discharge estimation, this study compared water flow monitoring hydrographs to investigate the performance of five hydrological models that incorporate different runoff yields and influx calculation methods. Two of the models performed well in simulating the peak discharge, peak time, and total flow volume of the water flood. The ratio (γ) of the monitored debris flood discharge (Q_d) to the simulated water flow discharge (Q_w) was investigated. Qualitatively, γ initially increased with Q_w but then decreased when Q_w exceeded a certain threshold, which corresponded to rainfall of 95 and 120 mm in a 6- and 24-h event with a normal distribution of precipitation, respectively. The decrease might be attributable to a threshold of sediment availability being reached, beyond which increased flow rate is not matched by increased sediment input in the large watershed. Uncertainty of hydrological calculation was evaluated by dividing the catchment into sub-basins and adopting different rainfall time steps as input. The efficiency of using a distributed simulation exhibited marginal improvement potential compared with a lumped simulation. Conversely, the rainfall time step input significantly affected the simulation results by delaying the peak time and decreasing the peak discharge. This research demonstrates the applicability of a discharge estimation method that combines a hydrological water flow simulation and an estimation of γ. The results were verified on the basis of monitored flow densities and videos obtained in two watersheds with areas of 2.34 and 32.4 km².     

Analysis of flood propagation changes in the Kienstock—Bratislava reach of the Danube River/Analyse des changements de propagation des crues dans le tronçon Kienstock—Bratislava du Fleuve Danube

Abstract

In the first part of this study, a flood wave transformation analysis for the largest historical floods in the Danube River reach Kienstock–Bratislava was carried out. For the simulation of the historical (1899 and 1954) flood propagation, the nonlinear river model NLN-Danube (calibrated on the recent river reach conditions) was used. It was shown that the simulated peak discharges were not changed significantly when compared to their historical counterparts. However, the simulated hydrographs exhibit a significant acceleration of the flood wave movement at discharges of between 5000 and 9000 m³ s^-1. In the second part, the travel time-water level relationships between Kienstock and Bratislava were analysed on a dataset of the flood peak water levels for the period 1991–2002. An empirical regression routing scheme for the Danube short-term water level forecast at Bratislava station was derived. This is based on the measured water level at Kienstock gauging station.     

Reconstructing extreme post‐wildfire floods: a comparison of convective and mesoscale events

In much of western United States destructive floods after wildfire are frequently caused by localized, short‐duration convective thunderstorms; however, little is known about post‐fire flooding from longer‐duration, low‐intensity mesoscale storms. In this study we estimate and compare peak flows from convective and mesoscale floods following the 2012 High Park Fire in the ungaged 15.5 km² Skin Gulch basin in the northcentral Colorado Front Range. The convective storm on 6 July 2012 came just days after the wildfire was contained. Radar data indicated that the total rainfall was 20–47 mm, and the maximum rainfall intensities (upwards of 50 mm h^?1) were concentrated over portions of the watershed that burned at high severity. The mesoscale storm on 9–15 September 2013 produced 220–240 mm of rain but had maximum 15‐min intensities of only 25–32 mm h^?1. Peak flows for each flood were estimated using three independent techniques. Our best estimate using a 2D hydraulic model was 28 m³ s^?1 km^?2 for the flood following the convective storm, placing it among the largest rainfall‐runoff floods per unit area in the United States. In contrast, the flood associated with the mesoscale flood was only 6 m³ s^?1 km^?2, but the long‐duration flood caused extensive channel incision and widening, indicating that this storm was much more geomorphically effective. The peak flow estimates for the 2013 flood had a higher relative uncertainty and this stemmed from whether we used pre‐ or post‐flood channel topography. The results document the extent to which a high and moderate severity forest fire can greatly increase peak flows and alter channel morphology, illustrate how indirect peak flow estimates have larger errors than is generally assumed, and indicate that the magnitude of post‐fire floods and geomorphic change can be affected by the timing, magnitude, duration, and sequence of rainstorms. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Identification and quantification of streamflow trends on the Canadian Prairies

Abstract

Trend analysis was performed on streamflow data for a collection of stations on the Canadian Prairies, in terms of spring and summer runoff volumes, peak flow rates and peak flow occurrences, as well as an annual volume measure, for analysis periods of 1966–2005, 1971–2005, and 1976–2005. The Mann-Kendall statistical test for trend and bootstrap resampling were used to identify the trends and to determine the field significance of the trends. Partial correlation analysis was used to identify relationships between hydrological variables that exhibit a significant trend and meteorological variables that exhibit a significant trend. Noteworthy results include decreasing trends in the spring snowmelt runoff event volume and peak flow, decreasing trends (earlier occurrence) in the spring snowmelt runoff event peak date and decreasing trends in the seasonal (1 March–31 October) runoff volume. These trends can be attributed to a combination of reductions in snowfall and increases in temperatures during the winter months.     

Flooding duration and volume more important than peak discharge in explaining 18 years of gravel–cobble river change

Floods play a critical role in geomorphic change, but whether peak magnitude, duration, volume, or frequency determines the resulting magnitude of erosion and deposition is a question often proposed in geomorphic effectiveness studies. This study investigated that question using digital elevation model differencing to compare and contrast three hydrologically distinct epochs of topographic change spanning 18 years in the 37-km gravel–cobble lower Yuba River in northern California, USA. Scour and fill were analysed by volume at segment and geomorphic reach scales. Each epoch's hydrology was characterized using 15-min and daily averaged flow to obtain distinct peak and recurrence, duration, and volume metrics. Epochs 1 (1999–2008) and 3 (2014–2017) were wetter than average with large floods reaching 3206 and 2466 m³/s, respectively, though of different flood durations. Epoch 2 (2008–2014) was a drought period with only four brief moderate floods (peak of 1245 m³/s). Total volumetric changes showed that major geomorphic response occurred primarily during large flood events; however, total scour and net export of sediment varied greatly, with 20 times more export in epoch 3 compared to epoch 1. The key finding was that greater peak discharge was not correlated with greater net and total erosion; differences were better explained by duration and volume above floodway-filling stage. This finding highlights the importance of considering flood duration and volume, along with peak, to assess flood magnitude in the context of flood management, frequency analysis, and resulting geomorphic changes.     

Seasonal and annual maximum streamflow forecasting using climate information: application to the Three Gorges Dam in the Yangtze River basin,China / Prévision d'écoulements saisonnier et maximum annuel à l'aide d'informations climatiques: application au Barrage des Trois Gorges dans le bassin du Fleuve Yangtze,Chine

Abstract

This paper explores the potential for seasonal prediction of hydrological variables that are potentially useful for reservoir operation of the Three Gorges Dam, China. The seasonal flow of the primary inflow season and the peak annual flow are investigated at Yichang hydrological station, a proxy for inflows to the Three Gorges Dam. Building on literature and diagnostic results, a prediction model is constructed using sea-surface temperatures and upland snow cover available one season ahead of the prediction period. A hierarchical Bayesian approach is used to estimate uncertainty in the parameters of the prediction model and to propagate these uncertainties to the predictand. The results show skill for both the seasonal flow and the peak annual flow. The peak annual flow model is then used to estimate a design flood (50-year flood or 2% exceedence probability) on a year-to-year basis. The results demonstrate the inter-annual variability in flood risk. The predictability of both the seasonal total inflow and the peak annual flow (or a design flood volume) offers potential for adaptive management of the Three Gorges Dam reservoir through modification of the operating policy in accordance with the year-to-year changes in these variables.     

Dependence between flood peaks and volumes: a case study on climate and hydrological controls

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to understand the causal factors controlling the relationship between flood peaks and volumes in a regional context. A case study is performed based on 330 catchments in Austria ranging from 6 to 500 km² in size. Maximum annual flood discharges are compared with the associated flood volumes, and the consistency of the peak–volume relationship is quantified by the Spearman rank correlation coefficient. The results indicate that climate-related factors are more important than catchment-related factors in controlling the consistency. Spearman rank correlation coefficients typically range from about 0.2 in the high alpine catchments to about 0.8 in the lowlands. The weak dependence in the high alpine catchments is due to the mix of flood types, including long-duration snowmelt, synoptic floods and flash floods. In the lowlands, the flood durations vary less in a given catchment which is related to the filtering of the distribution of all storms by the catchment response time to produce the distribution of flood producing storms.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz     

Design event selection in bivariate hydrological frequency analysis

Abstract

In the bivariate analysis of hydrological events, such as rainfall storms or flood hydrographs, the choice of an appropriate return period for structure design leads to infinite combinations of values of the related random variables (e.g. peak and volume in the analysis of floods). These combinations are generally not equivalent, from a practical point of view. In this paper, a methodology is proposed to identify a subset of the critical combinations set that includes a fixed and arbitrarily chosen percentage in probability of the events, on the basis of their probability of occurrence. Therefore, several combinations can be selected within the subset, taking into account the specific characteristic of the design problem, in order to evaluate the effects of different hydrological loads on a structure. The proposed method is applicable to any type of bivariate distribution, thus providing a simple but effective rule to narrow down the infinite possible choices for the hydrological design variables. In order to illustrate how the proposed methodology can be easily used in practice, it is applied to a study case in the context of bivariate flood frequency analysis.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor Sheng Yue

Citation Volpi, E. and Fiori, A., 2012. Design event selection in bivariate hydrological frequency analysis. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (8), 1506–1515.     

沟道松散堆积体冲刷启动机理与泥石流-拦挡坝相互作用研究

汶川地震后我国西部山区大量崩滑体堵塞泥石流沟道,形成堰塞坝,暴雨条件下极易溃决形成溃决洪水,剧烈冲刷侵蚀下游松散堆积体,形成或加剧泥石流灾害规模,对下游拦挡工程的破坏性极强。通过室内水槽试验,监测堆积体内和拦挡坝后相关土水、动力参数响应规律,分析松散堆积体冲刷侵蚀启动力学机制及其与拦挡坝相互作用机理,并推导出考虑孔隙水压力的泥石流冲击力计算公式。结果表明：(1)冲刷启动过程中堆积体以溯源侵蚀、侧蚀为主,体积含水率和孔隙水压力先增后减,基质吸力呈波动减小。(2)在泥石流冲击拦挡坝过程中,坝后出现两次冲击峰值,第一次拦挡坝泄水通畅,振动加速度为1.29 m/s²;第二次排水受阻,振动加速度为1.22 m/s²,同时泥位达到峰值95 mm。(3)泥石流对拦挡坝的整体冲击力由动、静两部分组成,静冲击力与坝后孔隙水压力呈正比,而动冲击力与流速的平方呈正比。研究成果可为震后泥石流沟道松散堆积体冲刷启动机理研究与防治工程优化提供理论与技术支持。     

Glacial lake depth and volume estimation based on a large bathymetric dataset from the Cordillera Blanca,Peru

Glacial lakes are most often located in remote places making it difficult to carry out detailed bathymetric surveys. Consequently, lake depths and volumes for unmeasured lakes are often estimated using empirical relationships developed mainly from small bathymetric datasets. In this study, we use the bathymetry dataset of the Cordillera Blanca, Peru comprising 121 detailed lake bathymetries, the most extensive dataset in the world. We assess the performance of the most commonly applied empirical relationships for lake mean depth and volume estimation, but also investigate relationships between different geometric lake variables. We find that lake volume estimation performs better when derived from lake mean depth, which in turn is estimated from lake width. The findings also reveal the extreme variability of lake geometry, which depends on glacio-geomorphological processes that empirical–statistical relationships cannot adequately represent. Such relationships involve characteristic uncertainty ranges of roughly ±50%. We also estimate potential peak discharges of outburst floods from these lakes by applying empirical relationships from the literature, which results in discharges varying by up to one-order of magnitude. Finally, the results are applied to the 860 lakes without bathymetric measurements from the inventory dataset of the Cordillera Blanca to estimate lake mean depth, volume and possible peak discharge for all unmeasured lakes. Estimations show that ca. 70% (610) of the lakes have a mean depth lower than 10 m and very few longer than 40 m. Lake volume of unmeasured lakes represent ca. 32% (5.18 × 10⁸ m³) of the total lake volume (1.15 × 10⁹ m³) in the Cordillera Blanca. Approximately, 50% of the lakes have potential peak discharges > 1000 m³/s in case of lake outburst floods, implying a need for additional studies for risk assessment. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.